PGA Championship
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Round 2 plays (2pts):
Danny Willett to beat David Lingmerth +120 @ SkyBet
Lingmerth played well yesterday to end the day in 2nd place, but this is only his 4th Major Championship start and his record in his previous three Majors does not suggest that he will stay in this position. His finishes have been 17th-mc-74th and in the one time that he has been inside the top-20 before weekend, he then dropped lower down the leaderboard with every subsequent round to finish 74th. He is in good form, but the pressure is very different in a Major. Willett is a long way back in 71st place, but he was 4-over-par on the front nine and recovered well to be 2-under-par on the back nine, so he has momentum as well as the form to shoot a good round today - he last three finishes have been 6th (Open Championship) - 1st (European Masters) - 17th (Bridgestone Invitational).
Sergio Garcia to beat Louis Oosthuzen +105 @ SkyBet [also available @ [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
A repeat of the rd1 matchup. Both players had poor finishes to their round and should have finished the day higher up the leaderboard, but they are still in the top-40 and within six shots of the lead. Garcia has a stronger record of getting back into contention (as evidence by his 11-5-0 h2h pre-weekend record against Oosthuizen) so I'll back him in this matchup for another day.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Steven Bowditch +110 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]
Another repeat of a rd1 matchup. Cabrera-Bello won that matchup and he is now inside the cut line whereas Bowditch is outside it. With the angles outlined for the rd1 play still valid for today's play, there is once again odds at plus-odds.
Danny Willett to beat David Lingmerth +120 @ SkyBet
Lingmerth played well yesterday to end the day in 2nd place, but this is only his 4th Major Championship start and his record in his previous three Majors does not suggest that he will stay in this position. His finishes have been 17th-mc-74th and in the one time that he has been inside the top-20 before weekend, he then dropped lower down the leaderboard with every subsequent round to finish 74th. He is in good form, but the pressure is very different in a Major. Willett is a long way back in 71st place, but he was 4-over-par on the front nine and recovered well to be 2-under-par on the back nine, so he has momentum as well as the form to shoot a good round today - he last three finishes have been 6th (Open Championship) - 1st (European Masters) - 17th (Bridgestone Invitational).
Sergio Garcia to beat Louis Oosthuzen +105 @ SkyBet [also available @ [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle, The Greek and Carib]
A repeat of the rd1 matchup. Both players had poor finishes to their round and should have finished the day higher up the leaderboard, but they are still in the top-40 and within six shots of the lead. Garcia has a stronger record of getting back into contention (as evidence by his 11-5-0 h2h pre-weekend record against Oosthuizen) so I'll back him in this matchup for another day.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello to beat Steven Bowditch +110 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Pinnacle and Carib]
Another repeat of a rd1 matchup. Cabrera-Bello won that matchup and he is now inside the cut line whereas Bowditch is outside it. With the angles outlined for the rd1 play still valid for today's play, there is once again odds at plus-odds.
Streb -30 vs Stricker
Koepka -25 vs Schwartzal
Donald -35 vs Els
c smith -25 vs ye yang
Koepka -25 vs Schwartzal
Donald -35 vs Els
c smith -25 vs ye yang
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Round 4 plays (4pts unless stated):
Henrik Stenson to beat Hideki Matsuyama +105 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
I'll back Stenson as an underdog. He has 3rd places finishes in the last two PGA Championship, finished 6th in the Bridgestone Invitational and hit 15 of 18 greens in regulation in each of the last two rounds. He can't win from this position, but that was due to an opening 76. Take out that round and he is playing far better than his Japanese opponent who, in contrast to Stenson, has slipped down the leaderboard after a strong start to the week.
Russell Henley to beat Tony Finau +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
A similar story in this matchup in terms of quality of play: Henley has hit more greens in regulation than Finau in each of the last two rounds and that is not surprising given that Finau found himself inside the top-5 by the end of the 2nd round. It appears to be an identical week to Finau's only previous Major Championship start: in the U.S. Open in June, he jumped into the top-5 in his second round, fell to 9th after rd3 (he fell to 6th yesterday) and then fell to 14th in rd4. Henley has far more experience of Major Championships (two top-25 finishes in three of this year's events) and, eight shots off the pace, he should face less pressure than Finau who is within five shots of Jason Day.
Marcel Siem to beat Hiroshi Iwata +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
It was a good effort to shoot 70 yesterday after he tied the lowest-ever round in a Major Championship in rd2 as there is always a let-down after such a round. Even if it was limited yesterday, the effect can still carry over to the following round as well. And it is not as though Iwata played particularly well when shooting 63 - hit only 10 greens in regulation, but he took only 22 putts in his round, including a 3-putt on the 2nd hole. Siem has hit more greens in regulation than Iwata in every round and should score better, and not just play better, than his opponent today.
Francesco Molinari to beat Victor Dubuisson -110 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] [2pts]
A smaller play in this matchup which Molinari dominates - he has finished ahead of the Frenchman in six of their last seven common events. He has also hit 41 greens in regulation this week compared to 34 by Dubuisson so that form has clearly continued into this wek even though they are both tied on 3-under-par.
Henrik Stenson to beat Hideki Matsuyama +105 @ 5Dimes and Pinnacle [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
I'll back Stenson as an underdog. He has 3rd places finishes in the last two PGA Championship, finished 6th in the Bridgestone Invitational and hit 15 of 18 greens in regulation in each of the last two rounds. He can't win from this position, but that was due to an opening 76. Take out that round and he is playing far better than his Japanese opponent who, in contrast to Stenson, has slipped down the leaderboard after a strong start to the week.
Russell Henley to beat Tony Finau +102 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
A similar story in this matchup in terms of quality of play: Henley has hit more greens in regulation than Finau in each of the last two rounds and that is not surprising given that Finau found himself inside the top-5 by the end of the 2nd round. It appears to be an identical week to Finau's only previous Major Championship start: in the U.S. Open in June, he jumped into the top-5 in his second round, fell to 9th after rd3 (he fell to 6th yesterday) and then fell to 14th in rd4. Henley has far more experience of Major Championships (two top-25 finishes in three of this year's events) and, eight shots off the pace, he should face less pressure than Finau who is within five shots of Jason Day.
Marcel Siem to beat Hiroshi Iwata +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
It was a good effort to shoot 70 yesterday after he tied the lowest-ever round in a Major Championship in rd2 as there is always a let-down after such a round. Even if it was limited yesterday, the effect can still carry over to the following round as well. And it is not as though Iwata played particularly well when shooting 63 - hit only 10 greens in regulation, but he took only 22 putts in his round, including a 3-putt on the 2nd hole. Siem has hit more greens in regulation than Iwata in every round and should score better, and not just play better, than his opponent today.
Francesco Molinari to beat Victor Dubuisson -110 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib] [2pts]
A smaller play in this matchup which Molinari dominates - he has finished ahead of the Frenchman in six of their last seven common events. He has also hit 41 greens in regulation this week compared to 34 by Dubuisson so that form has clearly continued into this wek even though they are both tied on 3-under-par.
Yep, gonna be a fun day following this. Added Spieth +195 as a hedge. I am tempted to press Day and Rose but not with Jordan in the picture. Thanks.
Day wins. Guy deserves to finally get his major. Not an easier guy to root for on tour. Glad to see him and Spieth as the face of the sport for a while.
Day + 135 x 3
Day + 135 x 3
C Smith -15 vs Hatton
Spieth -50 vs Day Don't see Spieth falling back and don't see Day pulling away.
Spieth -50 vs Day Don't see Spieth falling back and don't see Day pulling away.
