By Christian Peterson
Senior Editor
August 7, 2007
Tiger Woods was utterly dominant in destroying the field at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational last week, which should be a scary thought for the rest of the boys. However, he also had an astonishing track record of success at Firestone Country Club, which we can't exactly say of Southern Hills (though he did tie for 12th at the 2001 U.S. Open). Considering he has yet to add another major to his collection this season, you can bet Eldrick is pumped for his "last shot at glory." Still, the trio of first-time major winners so far this year gives plenty of hope for a similar outcome this weekend, and there's the always-dangerous contingent of world-class players who already have a major title to their names.
The Favorites
At last update, it appeared Jim Furyk was going to be able to tee it up this week in Tulsa, despite a bad back that forced him out of last week's action in Akron. Normally, he and Phil Mickelson would be installed as top-three fantasy options behind Woods, but injuries to both casts that status in serious doubt. Mickelson simply hasn't been a factor since his wrist injury in early June, so it's difficult to see him going toe-to-toe with Tiger at Southern Hills (where he tied for seventh in 2001). Of course, 2001 Open champ Retief Goosen will get a lot of attention this week, but he's been so awful over the past year it's tough to see him winning again this week (see below for further detail). The list of "traditional" favorites gets rounded out by Vijay Singh and Ernie Els. Singh tied with Mickelson at the 2001 Open and comes into the week having two top-four finishes in his last five PGA TOUR events, but he hasn't logged a top-10 finish at a major since last year's U.S. Open and hasn't truly contended for a title since winning the 2004 PGA (yes, he had a streak of six straight major top 10s immediately following that win, but when was the last time you remember him having a chance to win on the back nine on Sunday?). As for Els, he didn't fare well at Southern Hills six years ago (T66), but a T4 finish at last month's British Open at least puts him back in the conversation as one of the contenders.
The Best of the Rest
With Padraig Harrington scratched off the list, Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott are in a knock-down, drag-out battle for the dishonor of being labeled the best golfer in the world without a major title. Garcia came achingly close at Carnoustie, and if he gets his putter going again this week at Southern Hills he should be very dangerous. Scott has faded badly after a solid start to the season, but the PGA has been his best major format over the last couple of years, so don't count him out entirely. Among those who could continue the first-time major winner trend are: Tim Clark, who has two runner-ups and a T6 in his last three PGA TOUR events; K.J. Choi, who has climbed all the way to No. 13 in the Official World Golf Rankings; Steve Stricker, who's been in contention at nearly every major for over a year; and Justin Rose, who's finished worse than T12 just once in his last seven PGA TOUR events. Finally, don't overlook Stewart Cink. At the 2001 Open, Cink had a 15-footer for birdie that he thought he had to make to give himself a chance at a playoff with Goosen. After barely missing the birdie attempt, he also lipped out an 18-incher that wound up costing him that chance after Retief inexplicably three-putted from close range on No. 18. Cink is coming off a T6 at Carnoustie and is seeking revenge this week at Southern Hills.
Who's Hot?
Andres Romero: Since bursting onto the scene with his second top-10 finish at the British Open in as many years, the young Argentine has won a European Tour event and tied for sixth last week at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.
Steve Stricker: Dating back to last year's U.S. Open (T6), Stricker has finished worse than T13 at a major just once (T7 at 2006 PGA, MC at Masters, T13 at Oakmont, T8 at Carnoustie) in the last two years.
Who's Not?
Retief Goosen: The 2001 Southern Hills champ has been awful for over a year; recording just two top-10 finishes in his last 21 PGA TOUR events and contending at a major just once since 2005 (both times at the Masters).
Geoff Ogilvy: Ogilvy has just one top-10 finish in his last 10 PGA TOUR events. Furthermore, for a guy who had become a regular contender at major championships, he's been very quiet this year, recording finishes of T24 at the Masters, T42 at the U.S. Open, and missing the cut at the British.
Player Trends
It's not a fool-proof indicator of future success, but golfers who fare well at a particular venue tend to do so time and again. With that in mind, we provide a list of players who have notable trends at this week's event (most recent results are listed first).
The Good
K.J. Choi (T7, T40, T6, T69, Cut, T29)
Adam Scott (T3, T40, T9, T23, T23, Cut)
Kenny Perry (Three top 10s, just one missed cut in 13 attempts)
Steve Elkington (Five top 10s in 14 tries, including a T2 in 2005)
Shaun Micheel (A runner-up and a win in four career appearances)
The Bad
Retief Goosen (Just one top 10 in nine appearances)
Padraig Harrington (Best finish of T17 in eight attempts; missed cut each of last two years)
Tom Lehman (1-for-13 in top 10s, nothing better than T29 since 1997)
Scott Verplank (One top 10 in 13 tries; three missed cuts in the last five years)
John Daly (Since his improbable win at Crooked Stick in 1991, Daly has missed the cut 10 times in 14 subsequent appearances)
The Ugly
Rory Sabbatini (Cut, T74, Cut, 68, Cut, Cut, 77)