Preview & outright plays:
When this event was played at the Champions Golf Club two years ago, a blue ribbon marked an empty parking spot. It was Payne Stewart's. On the Monday of Tour Championship week, Stewart and four others were killed when their LearJet flew uncontrolled for hours before crashing in South Dakota. He had been traveling to Houston for this event. Twenty-seven holes were played on the Thursday and Saturday while Friday's play was cancelled so the Tour could attend the Memorial Service in Orlando, Stewart's hometown. It was an emotional week and the return to the venue two years later should bring some fitting tributes to the life and career of one of the game's most flamboyant players.
The PGA Tour season ends as it started: with a high quality restricted field of just thirty players, though Phil Mickelson has declined the invitation to play and stays at home with his new daughter. They play on the Cypress Creek course at the Champions Golf Club which has hosted numerous important events and is currently a biannual host to this event until 2003. The fairways are tight, but the course is not especially long at 7,200 yards, so it will be approach shots and putting that will be key this week. The greens are among the largest on Tour - they average 10,000 square feet against a Tour average of 6,000 square feet - so keeping the approach shots to within good distance of the pin and lag putting on the Bermuda greens will be important.
The three selections for this event are Davis Love, Bob Estes and Tom Lehman. Once again I am sticking with Davis despite his frustrating inability to lead from the front. Nevertheless, he is at his best on Bermuda greens, is in great form with top-5 finishes in the last three weeks and has a great record on this course - 2nd (1999) and 3rd (1997). With Easybets offering a generous 14/1 to win (though only two places on the each-way element), it looks to good a price to pass up. Will wait for Olympic's 'show' odds to complete the play.
With the course setup very similar to Callaway Gardens, it is no surprise that last week's profitable picks are retained. Love and Estes remain the form horses on Tour at the moment. Estes extended his run of top-5 finishes to four last week and he has a good record as a front-runner. He must surely go close this week and Eurobet's odds on him are considerably larger than elsewhere. The only potential note of concern would be his 25th (of 29) place finish on this course two years ago, but that can easily be discounted. His first tee shot was with a putter. He hit it 15 feet to commemorate Stewart's holed putt that secured him the US Open Championship. Estes recorded a double-bogey on that hole and was understandably focused on other matters that week.
The final selection is Tom Lehman is should be one of the fresher players this week. He came back from a lengthy layoff to record 2nd and 13th place finishes in the pro-ams earlier this month. He has excelled on tight courses in the past and current ranked #1 in greens in regulation, he should be able to avoid too many monster putts this week. Like Estes, his 15th place finish two years ago can be discounted because of his friendship with Stewart, but it was noticeable that he put in a strong performance on this course once he got back from the memorial in Orlando. Less likely to win than the other two, so the 5 places (1/5 odds) at Surrey is more tempting than the better prices/lower places elsewhere.
Outright plays:
Davis Love to win 14/1 @
Easybets [0.5 units; rest of play to follow]
Bob Estes to win 28/1 e.w. @
Eurobet
Tom Lehman to win 28/1 e.w. @
Surrey
this is a big price for a man who has 4 top 4 finishes in a row
