Outrights:
Aaron Baddeley(60/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(175/1) e.w.
Jason Dufner(14/1) e.w.
Vijay Singh(80/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(33/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(80/1) e.w.
K.J. Choi(66/1) e.w.
Stewart Cink(150/1) e.w.
Write-up to follow.
(1) Looking back once again for some capping notes on this event from prior years, I find a local golf blogger quoted as saying, ?When it (is) dry the short hitters have done well like Leonard, when wet long hitters have done well like two time winner JB Holmes." So yesterday I called a good friend in Phoenix, and he says it has been wet and cool there for some time, and he added he expects the greens to be very receptive. So it looks like advantage this week to the big hitters that can get still get it close when they are hitting it a little wayward, disadvantage to Tim Clark.
(2) When I have 5 or 6 or 7 outright picks in an event, my long term track record would mostly show not much difference between my strongest plays, my middling plays and my final choices in terms of a strike rate for winners (1st or e.w.), and/or for just going close to the money places. On the other hand, what I have noticed over the years is that whenever I pick more than 7 players (particularly in the various run of the mill events), my overall selections from top to bottom for that event tend to be consistently more disappointing come Sunday night than when I have narrowed my choices down to a smaller stable. I certainly prefer to narrow my wagers in the run of the mill events to about five players (which always leaves plenty of leeway if an attractive in-running selection pops up), with never more than two of those plays at 28/1 or less . . . So then this week, I?ve lumped on with 8 players in Phoenix, while my stable in Dubai is much smaller because of a lack of vibes rather than any greater circumspection . . . But over the course of the season, a prime objective has always been to not feel forced in making too many plays or too many intentional omissions, and then let the chips fall where they may.
(3)
In terms of what has been successful for me over the years, no ANGLE comes close to being as profitable as my plays primarily derived from diligent tracking of the progress all week on the leaderboard and/or the telecast of a player I am very familiar with, and seeing how they are performing in some way that earns a seal of approval, and then using that nugget of knowledge to my benefit, preferably with an eye toward some particular future event(s). With that in mind, although I never saw a glimpse of him during the weekly telecast, it seems like I was following Lucas Glover shot for shot on the leaderboard last week (even more so than following the shot for shot coverage Tiger was receiving on the telecast), and I really could not have been more impressed with what I thought I was ?seeing?. Playing well from start to finish, IMO he just could never push out his advantage and keep pace with the leaders (mainly a failure to hole a few timely putts), and after holding up well IMO with last week?s delays and tougher weather conditions, until finally, when play resumed for an anticlimactic Monday, he just started the day flat with a pair of bogies, and in the story of his week, couldn?t squeeze out closing birdies after earning a couple really good chances. So I will emphatically embrace all the chances I?m going to get with Lucas at anything close to this week?s 175/1, especially when it also comes with some surprisingly good history at the venue or event . . . I came across this article after my bet was already in the barn (and dated February 4, 2013??):
http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/2013-02/gwar-tim-rosaforte-report-0204
(4) Singh, Baddeley and Cink, all former champions during Super Bowl week at Phoenix, have IMO all shown me more than just hopeful signs of good and purposeful play to start the season. Singh is the Tour?s most prolific winner in his 40's, and he was backing up his talk that his new caddy, new trainer and very positive mind had him feeling great about the coming season. The putting is of course a huge issue, bet everything else about his game has been 110% up to snuff, although we now get the distractions and psychological baggage of the growth hormone controversy by the man I will harshly refer to as a proven cheater, so I?m not sure I would have Singh in my stable if I had waited even 12 hours longer in placing my wager, but it is what it is. I do like the statement Singh has just released, unless and until he gets in serious contention . . . I was actually quite surprised to see that local resident Baddeley has a pretty poor track record in this event. Regardless, despite some poor stats, I think he is getting a lot out of his game at the moment and is tracking towards a good showing this week . . . Cink has plenty of unfulfilled potential, so I?ll chance a stab at hints of a resurgence.
(5) Dufner traveled half way around the world to test himself on new grasses among many unfamiliar peers in unfamiliar cultures, and was impressive in both how well he was striking the ball and how glad he was he made the choice to go play. Now after being immersed in desert golf, he returns to familiar environs and IMO looks fully capable of administering a Rory-like beat down if he gets off to a fast start.
(6) I believe we all concede that Charles Howell has made an impressive start to the year. I thought it would be asking a lot for III sticks to bounce back last week at lousy odds after squandering a golden opportunity for victory the week before, but he played tough once again. I was looking ahead after Hawaii at this spot, which certainly seemed much more doable than Torrey Pines, especially coming at a better price and without any danger of Tiger cashing in on one of his courses.
(7) JB Holmes isn?t even a hunch, more like a sentimental pick. Cink is a hunch.
(8) When I watched Choi on the range before Hawaii I thought his swing looked weak and lacking in balance and rhythm, and he proceeded to miss the cut. It was one of the early season surprises for me then to see Choi really play well at Torrey Pines, and I think he may have found something that has put a bounce in his step for at least another week.
(9) Just a parting shot regarding Mike Weir. When I saw he was charging at Humana to make the cut, I actually loved the fact he made a triple bogie on his last hole to miss the cut. I told myself to keep an eye out for further signs of improvement while still staying under the radar, and to jump on board at huge but fair odds at Riviera or Pebble Beach, and Mr. Mike has obliged me quite well. Now I?m needing him to get him through another week at a course that doesn?t suit, in a way that shows more positive hints but without attracting attention. I will only add I wish the schedule had Riviera before Pebble Beach, because Riviera would be my first choice of a venue for trying to capture the moment.
GL
