Round 3 plays (4pts unless stated):
Jimmy Walker to beat Russell Henley +110 @ Paddy Power
Both players more than ten shots off the lead, so individual motivation in this situation is relevant. Walker was in this position three weeks ago at the Sony Open in Hawaii and shot 68-64 over the weekend to finish 26th; the time before that was in the Frys.com Open in October when he shot 67-62 over the weekend finished 4th. Henley has been in this position only twice previously - shooting 79 in the 3rd round of the BMW Charity Pro-Am and missing the cut and shotting 71-75 and dropping from 15th to 42nd in the U.S. Open. With finishes of 26th, 23rd and 4th in his three starts this season, Walker is playing well enough to repeat his recent bouncebacks from such a position.
Lucas Glover to beat George McNeill +115 @ 5Dimes
A similar issue here. Both players are in 60th place, twelve shots off the lead. But this is a play primarily against McNeill - since the start of the 2011 season, he has started the 3rd round more than 10 shots off the lead on 11 occasions on the PGA Tour ... not once did he finish the 3rd round closer to the lead than at the start of the day. I'll take these odds to oppose a player out of contention.
Ryan Palmer to beat Scott Piercy +110 @ Paddy Power
Exactly the same in this matchup - both players are more than ten shots off the lead. Whereas Palmer has shot par or better in rd3 every time he has been more than ten shots off the lead since 2011 on the PGA Tour and improved his distance to the leader in more than half of those occasions, Piercy hasn't done so in any of the occasions that he has started the 3rd round more than ten shots off the lead.
Bryce Molder to beat Brendan Steele -116 @ Bet365 [2pts]
A different angle here. Molder has performed better than Steele in most categories this week - hit more fairways, hit more greens and scrambled better than Steele - so I'd be more confident that he can maintain his current top-20 position than Steele. And his previous history when starting the weekend in the top-20 is also supportive: in the last eight occasions that he has started the weekend in the top-20, his 3rd round scores has been 64-68-67-65-68-67-75-68.
Jeff Maggert to beat Ted Potter -120 @ WSEX [also available @ Carib] [2pts]
Another smaller play on two players inside the top-20. Maggert dominates this h2h matchup 12-5-2, plus he has had three top-10 finishes on this course; Potter has played it once previously and finished 70th.
