Pitt's a huge consensus pick

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GM

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Bet up from an opening line of -8? to -11?. It would appear both the sharps and the public are slamming the Steelers.

MVP posts a little summary every day of where their action is at. This is the first time I have seen them use the word "heavy" in their summary (though I can't claim I have followed it super-closely, but I would certainly believe them given the other numbers I have)....

From MVP:
NFL FOOTBALL: The Monday Night Football game goes at 9:00 p.m. EST with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Action has come in as follows: Pittsburgh (HEAVY) on the Game Line; Pittsburgh on the Game Moneyline; Over on the Game Total; Pittsburgh & Over on the First Half; Pittsburgh & Over on the First Quarter; Baltimore & Under on the Second Quarter; Baltimore & Over on the Third Quarter; and, Pittsburgh & Under on the Fourth Quarter.

Clem's Office Dopes are heavy on Pitt to the tune of 55-15.

Sportsbook.com's got 83% on the Pitt line (currently at -12 :eek: ), and 91% on Pitt ML.

Big Guy's users have picked Pitt 74-15 (83%).

All in all, these are huge numbers for a huge favorite. I think I'll be waiting til about 8:30, then grabbing all the points I can with the Ravens. Scary night indeed.
 

high5foryou

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GM - i bet primarily at MVP because of the value i can get with dogs. the action assessment they give would appear pretty accurate in this situation - however, just a caution, some days it doesn't seem right at all...ie. one day they said the action was "very, very, very heavy" on one side, but the line hadn't moved at all from the opening line.
 
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ImFeklhr

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Bodog has them at +13 also, but at -115. Might be a sign things have finally plateaued?? No way they will make it +14 right?
 

Spalding

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For all you people that like to "snatch up" points when the line starts rising, look back at the last few MNF games. Indy line went up heavy throughout the week and they blew them out. Atlanta went up to -11 I believe before kickoff and they killed them. Virginia Tech went up to 14 and everyone jumped on BC and it went back down to 12 then and VT blew em out.

Just cause you get 12 or 13 points doesn't mean Anthony Wright can throw the football or even make a play for that matter. Look what you investing your money in...the Ravens offense. There is a reason that the line is 11.5 or 12 in some places.

It just seems like people see the line rise and they immediately go against it, thinking that the public are such dopes and that is the only reason the line is rising, cause "squares" are driving it up. Well, the "squares" have been kicking ass on MNF and Thursday nights with VT lately.
 

FATMAN

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I totally agree I realize 13pts is alot but to really understand how bad balts O is????? To add fuel to the fire ed reed and ray lewis are out on D :scared

Anyone who has ever been to the burgh for a monday night game knows how absolutely crazy that place will be..................add in halloween......the fact that pitt already has 2 loses at home...........I really see a huge blowout tonight 34-6 my guess.........

If you can't get a tix for the game you better Get to hightops early that place will be rockin tonight.
 
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LonghornMM

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Spalding, yeah the squares have been making a killing, but it always happens around the halfway to just past halfway point of the NFL schedule when the odds makers start cleaning Joe Public's clock. Does it start tonite? Kinda scary to see that much money on one side. Do you think Vegas will continue to lose on big, lopsided public plays? I don't. Baltimore or no play for me.
 

gman2

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Spalding said:
For all you people that like to "snatch up" points when the line starts rising, look back at the last few MNF games. Indy line went up heavy throughout the week and they blew them out. Atlanta went up to -11 I believe before kickoff and they killed them. Virginia Tech went up to 14 and everyone jumped on BC and it went back down to 12 then and VT blew em out.

indy blew out st.louis?
yeah, when martin entered the game. they were in danger of losing outright as a massive favorite before bulger got hurt

atlanta certainly wasnt overly impressive last monday night.
vick looked terrible throwing the football and if not for testaverdfe single-handidly giving the falcons 14 points, that score would have been tighter.

virginia tech blew out boston college?
you mean on the INT return with a few minutes to go that covered the game?
yes, virginia tech dominated boston college, but they didnt blow them out.

its crazy how so many people just have no shame in laying tons of points and dont even think twice about it.

they have no concept of just how valuable points are in a football game.

this goes back to the whole argument of is the team that covers the "right side".

the answer is, yes, if they cover theyre the right side for that night.

nobody is going to take the money back from the people who couldnt get enough of indy laying a shitload of points to the rams.

those bets won. they will be paid accordingly for that night.

but for every one bet that sportsbooks pay out to those who indiscriminately lay 2 TDs with indy in that kind of spot, they'll win back 2 other because the chalkeaters cant objectively analyze their bets and realize that they were very fortunate that bulger left that game. its just a matter of time before they give it back.

do you think its coincidence that all the "vent threads" happen to involve chalks and people crying about "how can (insert name of chalk de jure) not be killing lowly (insert name of underdog)? they suck... blah blah blah.

do you ever see vent threads with people complaining about dogs? hardly ever.

point being -- chalks are great when they cover. but when they dont, the vent threads start popping up with "they suck. they should be KILLING them". its the nfl. professional football. WHY should they be killing them? this league has so much parity its not even funny. its almost impossible to justify 90% of the teams ever being more than a 6 point favorite or underdog.


same thing with atlanta. they see that their bet won, yet dont realize that vick still cant throw the football and the jets gift-wrapped 14 points to the falcons to seal the cover. those people will end up giving back the atlanta money when they lay chalk with an overrated michael vick in the coming sundays.
 
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Spalding

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That is true. This is the NFL, anything can happen...look at Frisco yesterday! I just keep seeing it when the line starts to rise and people post that Team A is getting 90% of the action, all the sudden there is a flood of posts with people taking Team B. Like that stat is the end all. Sometimes you gotta look at the teams themselves and stop watching line movement all day.

But, San Francisco won yesterday, so who knows. I like Pitt but I am pretty square so my opinion doesn't mean much.
 
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gman2

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Spalding said:
How did the games end up? Your excuses don't change the score of the games, GMAN.

my excuses? you mean on the games i didnt bet?
my god i think i can count on one hand the number of nfl bets ive made this year.

no offense spalding, because youre a great guy and we've had some good college football and D-II talk in the past.

but youre proving my point.

youre saying "how did the games end up"?

and thats exactly my point.

for that particular night, those teams found a way to cover the number, even if it was improbable or if they took circuitous routes to the cover.

but the guys who are laying 14 with indy and thinking theyre brilliant after the game are the same guys starting the vent threads when indy is "only winning by 6 or 7" a week later, and theyre pissed because they bet into an inflated line.

you get the point.
 

gman2

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moreover, the good bettor will objectively look at his indy bet from that week and file it away in his memory bank that "hey, they covered for me, but it was not an easy cover and they might be overvalued in the coming weeks. i might want to avoid indy in that kind of spot again. i could have easily lost".

meanwhile, the average joe knows no such objectivity.
when he looks at the lines the next week, its simply
"well, they covered for me once. let's do it again".
the number or the amount of chalk becomes irrelevant.

and invariably, thats when the vent threads start when it doesnt happen.

i should say that it goes the same way with dogs. although you see this more often with the favs.
 
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Spalding

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Thats a good point. I agree that I may be betting an inflated line in the future, no doubt about it...probably tonight!!

Maybe I am falling into the trap you are talking about. May have to rethink a few things.

Didn't mean to bust your chops or anything!
 

Hooks

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yesterday, I had to make a decision concerning the Redskin/Giant game. i had to chose between the Giants, knowing they would play with emotion with the death of their owner. Or the Skins, based on their defense, offense and going against a team with a lousy defense. I chose the latter and we all know the outcome. I should have thought about the blowout the week before vs. a bad S.F. team coming into the equasion.
So, now I know that the books have gotten killed the whole month of October and with that, the question arises again, do I go with the team with all the #s or as I'd rather do, especially on a single game situation, go against the Money and play the side the books need tonight?
It's tough to do, however I feel that going with the side the books need tonight would be the way to go.
 

2muchchalk

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gman2 said:
do you ever see vent threads with people complaining about dogs? hardly ever.

point being -- chalks are great when they cover. but when they dont, the vent threads start popping up with "they suck. they should be KILLING them". its the nfl. professional football. WHY should they be killing them? this league has so much parity its not even funny. its almost impossible to justify 90% of the teams ever being more than a 6 point favorite or underdog.


same thing with atlanta. they see that their bet won, yet dont realize that vick still cant throw the football and the jets gift-wrapped 14 points to the falcons to seal the cover. those people will end up giving back the atlanta money when they lay chalk with an overrated michael vick in the coming sundays.

i agree
 

Dr. Fade

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It is disturbing being on the side of a huge public play, but I think injuries (Lewis, Reed) had an effect on the # (at least getting to 11.5). I'm on PIT & Over. Just feel they will move it up&down two best defenders out.
 

treynolds

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if the action is heavy on the fav. and they dont move the line then the dog is the play, but when the line is moving like this the favorite is usually the play
good luck im on the steelers
 
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rompil

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NFL: Steelers try to run MNF home mark to 11-0

October 31, 2005

By ALAN ROBINSON / Associated Press

PITTSBURGH ? When it comes to a virtual guaranteed victory in the NFL, nothing beats the Pittsburgh Steelers at home on a Monday night. They play the Baltimore Ravens tonight.

The Steelers are 10-0 in Monday home games under coach Bill Cowher, and haven't lost a Monday night home game since Chuck Noll was the coach in 1991. The losing quarterbacks in those games, almost none of which were close, include Jim Kelly, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning ? not exactly a positive sign for Baltimore's Anthony Wright as he tries to turn around a Ravens season that is fast slipping away.

With Pittsburgh's defense now back on its game, Wright and the offensively deficient Ravens (2-4) would seem to be catching the Steelers (4-2) at exactly the wrong time, even in an AFC North rivalry where records and resumes don't always mean much.

The Steelers sacked, harassed and upended Texans quarterback David Carr so many times during a 27-7 rout last month that Carr began yelling at his linemen. Similarly, the Steelers so disrupted Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer on Oct. 23 that the league's top-rated passer couldn't lead a touchdown drive until the final 2 minutes of a 27-13 loss.

That day, Wright didn't direct a single touchdown drive in a 10-6 loss to Chicago that left the Ravens another loss or two away from all but falling out of the division race. The Ravens haven't scored a touchdown in seven quarters, a worrisome slump for a team that goes into Pittsburgh with a six-game road losing streak and without its two best defensive players, injured middle linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed, as well as fullback Alan Ricard.

"I don't know, for whatever reason the chemistry's not there," with the Ravens, Steelers receiver Hines Ward said. "And they've got a bunch of great guys out there."

Ward probably should have said the Ravens have a lot of great players out. Even coach Brian Billick is talking about the perilous position his team is in, with two games each against division leader Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the next five games and his team without the NFL's last two defensive players of the year.

"It's likely that a 10-6 season is needed to make the playoffs," Billick wrote in his online diary on the Ravens' Web site. "That leaves us with the narrowest of margins for getting there" and, he wrote, a task that is "ambitious at best, some might assume impossible."

Wright, himself a former Steelers player, knows how Pittsburgh's defense can make the best quarterbacks look bad when it detects signs of weakness or a breakdown.

"We know we have to come out ready for a brawl," Wright said. "As long as we come out with that mentality, anything can happen and we can pull this thing out."

Getting into the end zone would be a plus, something the Ravens haven't done since the first quarter Oct. 16 against Cleveland. One problem is the running game hasn't produced enough to keep defenses from focusing away from Wright's throwing; former 2,000-yard rusher Jamal Lewis hasn't had a 100-yard game all season and was held to 93 yards on 39 carries the last two weeks.

"We don't really have an answer for it," Wright said. "We have to keep pushing until we break through."

For Pittsburgh, Ben Roethlisberger isn't throwing because he doesn't have to. Roethlisberger, 17-1 as a regular season starter, threw only 14 times against Cincinnati as the Steelers ran for 221 yards, with Willie Parker getting 131, and Roethlisberger has only 40 passing attempts in his last two starts.

Ravens linebacker Tommy Polley said the Steelers' passing isn't nearly as big a worry as their running, saying cornerbacks Samari Rolle and Chris McAllister will neutralize wide receivers Ward, Antwaan Randle El and Cedrick Wilson downfield.

"We feel comfortable with our two shutdown guys, Samari and Chris," Polley said. "I don't think we're too much worried about the outside. We're worried about the inside. It's going to be a physical game."

The Steelers' biggest worry might be disinterest. After their last-minute 24-22 Monday night win at San Diego three weeks ago, the Steelers were sloppy and mistake-prone in a 23-17 overtime loss at home to Jacksonville on Oct. 16 ? their second successive home loss. They are 1-2 at home after going 8-0 last season, also losing to New England 23-20 on Sept. 25.

The Steelers felt they re-established themselves as the team to beat in the division by manhandling Cincinnati, so the risk of relaxing against a depleted and underachieving Baltimore team is there. Plus, the Ravens are 4-1 on Mondays since moving to Baltimore in 1996, and have won two of their last three against Pittsburgh.

"Maybe they're just laying low," Pittsburgh's Jerome Bettis said, referring to the lack of back-and-forth talking common in previous Ravens-Steelers meetings but absent from this game. "But you'd better believe when Monday night comes they're going to be ready. This is the biggest rivalry in our division, and they'll be ready and we'll be ready."
 

Smitty

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treynolds said:
if the action is heavy on the fav. and they dont move the line then the dog is the play, but when the line is moving like this the favorite is usually the play

i agree 100%. that said, looking at tonight's game, there is really no way to make a case for taking baltimore. it's not hard to imagine them getting shut out, and their defense has lost two of the best players in the league. they don't belong on the same field as pitt tonight.

i think anyone who's been doing this for long enough realizes... that is the time to take the dog. it makes absolutely NO sense. personally, i don't see how baltimore can stay with 3 touchdowns of pitt. but we all know these games aren't decided on paper; they're decided by human beings. ridiculously overpaid human beings. so anything can happen. and, in the nfl usually does.

if games went the way everybody expected, there wouldn't be so many sportsbooks around, begging for your action.

after all that, naturally the steelers will win 42-6. :)
 
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