- Feb 12, 2006
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Cleveland has won 4 in a row, 6 of their past 7 and are the top ranked team in the entire NBA. Miami has won 2 in a row, 5 of their past 7 and ranked 5th in the eastern conference at 23-20.
LETDOWN GAME FOR CLEVELAND. I expect this to be a bit letdown game for Cleveland. Delonte West is out for Cleveland and Mo Williams will be out for his third straight game. They just played three straight at home, beating Toronto by 8 (who are awful on the road), come from behind win vs. the Lakers, to win by 3 and scoring at the end of the game to beat OK City by 1. The game before all that was on the road, when they beat the Clippers by 2. I mention these games because if you've been watching them you'd notice, Cleveland has scrounged for ways to beat opponents lately, while finding a way to finish on the winning side every time. They are due for a letdown vs. a good opponent on the road, and this team is Miami.
MIAMI, PLAYING GREAT UNDER THE RADAR. Today they go on the road to fight a hungry Miami team, who may be in the middle of the pack, very underrated, but the perfect team to knock off Cleveland. Miami's roster is Dwyane Wade, Jermaine O'Neal, Rafer Alston, Quentin Richardson and Michael Beasley (a player I loved in college, and who is having a great rookie year). This team is a very tight-knit group of players and feed off each other for emotion. Like I said they've been very hot as of late. They average as a team 97.5 points a game but have scored 109 or more points 5 times in their last seven games (three times scoring 115 points). In their last 7 games Cleveland has only scored 109 points once. Miami also hit 40+ FG's in a game five times in their past 7, while Cleveland has only once. Miami is working great as a team, making great passes and every player is dangerous when hot.
LINE MOVEMENT. Cleveland opened as -2 favourites. Automatically I knew the public would love them, and they would be a huge square play, but I looked at this game without judging. After reading everything I did and reflecting on their recent games that I have seen, and weighing in the injuries, I had a feeling the line would be bet down by the sharps so I got on it at +2. The public has been pounding Cleveland like expected but the sharps have pounded Miami to -1 in some places .. I like seeing this sort of stuff after the wagers already been placed.
SHAQUILLE VS. OLD TEAM. Shaquille will be up against his old team for the 2nd times in three games (vs. Lakers now Heat). With the injury problems Shaquille has been looked at as the second scorer, after Lebron, recently. Oklahoma City were all over him in their last game, fouling him what seemed every possession (knowing that he can't hit FT shots consistantly). Miami management knows Shaq, and I expect them to do the same thing against him as OK City did .. putting Jermaine O'Neal on him and sliding over a second defender when he get close to the net to make him shoot FT's rather than an easy close shot or dunk.
Of course there are many factors which favour Cleveland but I feel these factors outweigh any other, thus I love Miami to win this game.
BOL
PV
