Playoff Thread

Toledo Prophet

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Well, its January football......high stakes.....and a final chance for us to try and make some $$$$ on football.......lets all start the playoffs on a winning note. I do all my playoff plays in this thread, hopefully this will be a winning thread.

Getting started with:

Seattle -3 over Washington. One reason why I like the Hawks is that it seems like all the espn talking heads are picking Washington. Fading the chattering class of espn is always a wise move.

Anyway, there is a lot to like with Washington with Collins playing well, Portis running hard and, of course, their motiviation in the wake of the season taylor death. They are the hot team. They will battle hard today, but in the end fall short.

The Seahawks have a quick front seven which will give Washington some troubles. That, combined iwth the crowd will bother Washington all day as they will struggle with false starts and holding calls as a result. Collins has not thrown a pick yet since he took over the starting job, but I see him throwing the ball to Lofi Totapu in a key spot that will help determine this game. Ryan Grant will neutralize Chris Cooley which will help make Washington one dimensional.All things being equal, I will take Hasselback at home against Collins on the road any day of the week. There is a clear QB edge in this game as I see it. And, I think he can take advantage of an inexperienced Washington secondary with two key starters playing in their first postseason game.

Seattle is 18-7-1 ATS at home the last three years. They've covered five in a row at home coming into the game. I think we're getting value here becuase of the way these teams are being perceived coming in with Washington surging to make the playoffs while Seattle dropped two of three, but did so after their division was wrapped up. The Skins have been on a nice run, but think its ends here. Seattle 24 Washington 13.
 

Toledo Prophet

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Adding:

Jax-Pitts Over 40: Ah yes, when you think of Pittsburgh and Jacksonville surely you think of shootout football, right? What, you dont? Well, at least you should be thinking Over the Total football. Consider Jacksonville is 11-4-1 Over this season and 30-17-2 Over since the start of 2005 season. Meanwhile, Steeler home games in the Roethlisberger era are 24-8-1 Over the total. This year, that trend has been so-so, going an even 4-4, but many home games this year have been played under atrocious conditions.....The Steelers still average more than 28 a game at home. More numbers: The winner in all of Pittsburgh games have averaged 27.5 ppg while the winner in the Jaguars game this year has scored 29 ppg.....on this same field a few weeks ago, in weather conditions worse than tonight, 51 points were scored. I think both teams have an edge on offense over the defenses tonight and I expect with Big Ben chucking it and the power of taylor with the speed of Jones Drew there will be a lot of big plays tonight. Both teams will surpass the 20 point mark.
 

Toledo Prophet

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Adding Pittsburgh +3, -120.

Kinda of a late post here, but I snuck in a pick on the home dog here....in the last game, Jax took the last drive of the first half and the opening drive of the second half for a pair of TDs...to go from down 7-3 to up 17-7 without any possessions by the Steelers. The Steelers were chasing ever since. The Steeler D will look to make amends for that tonight and with a little better third down defense will give Ben enough offensive possessions to reverse the outcome from last month. In a wild wild shootout, Pittsburgh takes the Jags 31-27.....but of course, I grabbed the points anyway!

Good Luck!!
 

Toledo Prophet

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3-0 day. :00hour

Happy about that, for sure, but a little sad my Steelers got eliminated.....they battled hard to come back and at least got me the cash in the end which is all I can really ask for!!

Congrats to everyone else who won today.......we'll see what tomorrow brings!!

:weed: :toast:
 
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Toledo Prophet

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Playoff YTD: 3-0-0

Sorry for the late post, just a little caught up with some bball games that went down to the wire.

GB -7, -130 over Seattle......GB was 12-3-1 ATS this year, 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games. Love their defense today to thwart whatever Seattle wants to do. Just not a big fan of what I have seen out of seattle on the road this year, while I love the chemistry GB has had all season long. Think they get this one 31-14.
 

Toledo Prophet

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Big Win with the Packers!!! :00hour :00hour

As far as tonight:

Jax/NE Over 50........I see a lot of people on this forum on the Over, so I am not exactly breaking any news with this pick. Nevertheless, I feel this is a strong play. As I alluded to last week, you really should think of Over the Total football when its comes to Jacksonville. They are 12-4-1 Over this season and 17-5-1 Over dating back to last season. They've gone Over in 10 of their last 11 road games, and they scored 24 or more points in 10 straight games, and 11 of their last 12. New England, meanwhile, well has a record setting offense the likes that broke countless NFL records this season. No need to go into all the stats here. And, despite the Jaguars physical style of defense, I dont think they're going to stop the Pats and their passing spread offense that often tonight. Patriots should have little trouble getting into the 30s. But, I do think they can be had a bit on defense. I do not think its a world beater and feel like jacksonville has enough weapons to find the end zone of few times. Will they hit that 24 mark? I think they stand a chance at that, but at worst I think they net 3 or 4 scores and if they maximize those not only will this number soar over the total, but the game will be much closer than expected. Over the last half of the season, these teams were the two highest scoring teams in the NFL.

Good luck!!!
 

Toledo Prophet

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Today: 2-0
Playoffs to date: 5-0

:00hour :00hour

A very nice, satisfying 2-0 day in the NFL, which more than offset a losing day I had over in college hoops today. Put more on these games than i did in baskets, so a very nice day!!:weed:

GB was an easy winner. The NE/Jax over was closer than I expected, but still came home a winner.

Congrats to everyone else who had good days. Lets try and grab some more dough tomorrow!!!

:00x1
 

Toledo Prophet

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Happy Sunday everybody!! We another great day of high stakes football ahead of us (with some nice hoops action sprinkled around the various dials), so it shouldd be a fun one.

Here's what I have going for today:

San Diego +11 over Indy.......All week I had it planted in my mind that this was going to be a blowout for the Colts. A message shot across the bow to their rivals in Boston that next Sunday would be war.

But, here's the deal. I went for a nice long run during the 11 o'clock hour and cleared my head on this one. Call this a runner's high pick (hey, it worked yesterday as I switched on UK-Vandy after my run). Consider this for the San Diego Chargers. This is their series. Only two teams can really claim to know how and have the confidence to play--and beat--Indy. The Chargers and New England. They've played them to a standstill in each of the last three seasons, losing by 3 in 2005 and winning outright last year and two months ago. After a great start, Indy has sorta plodded towards the finish line, going 3-5 ATS over the back half of the season. The Chargers, meanwhile, are on a 11-2 SU, ATS run, including seven covers in a row. Five of which they were favored by nine or more. Now, we're catching 11 points with them. San Diego is a physical team, with enough playmakers on both sides of the ball to make this game interesting today. When they step on the field, they will not be intimidated in the least by what they're facing given their success against Manning. The Chargers got a huge monkey off their back last week, notching a playoff win after a few years of one and outs. Now, they can play loose and free and play the no respect card. Nobody is giving them a chance, and I think the Chargers, a team crushed with pressure all season, will come up huge today and make this a ballgame all the way until the end.

I have not been throwing out "unit" picks, but I will point out that I am going with a smaller bet on this one this afternoon. Not because I am not confident, but I made bigger wagers on the NFL games yesterday, won both, and am playing it a bit conservatively on this early one today. Colts seem to kill me when I fade them, so thats play a part to.

Wanted to grab the over, but as it turns out, only 3 of the last 10 Colt games have exceeded 46 points. Certainly not taking the under, but the final score i came with on my run was 23-17 Indy.

Playing the Chargers +11.

Good Luck to all!!
 

Houseman

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One day, we will be on the same side of something. Now I am a little worried about my pick. GL to you.
 

Toledo Prophet

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Way to go Chargers!!!! The outright win, though, was a shocker.

Ok, here's my late game plays. Not much time for writeups, though.

Over 47......this ought to be a shootout. I know the Giants like ball control, but i see a lot of big plays. All week thought this was and the NE game would be the two that would be easy overs. Won last night on the first Over, gonna step up here on try it again.

Giants +7.......I just dont like the way Dallas played ever since the Green Bay game. As we just saw with the Colts, you cant just turn the switch on. The Giants have been battling every week for that wildcard spot and have been looking at the games for a month now as postseason games. Think they have the early edge in this game.

This game will be fun and wild.

Good luck!!!
 

Houseman

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Crap, another looser. I took Dallas. Toledo, I think I am going to just send you my money and let you bet for me. geeeezzzz I am in a slump.
 

Toledo Prophet

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Crap, another looser. I took Dallas. Toledo, I think I am going to just send you my money and let you bet for me. geeeezzzz I am in a slump.

We'll see how it goes. I have money on Eliza, so I am already a bit nervous......thus far, the NFL postseason and bowl games are making up for a protracted ncaa bball slump.

It seems like every other year, I see the playoffs well.....last year was a struggle, except for a big win on the Indy-NE over in the afc champ game and a lucky ass play on Thomas Jones scoring the first TD in the Saints-Bears nfc title game......of course, in 2005, my very own Steelers made me rich.....that was special!!!

Should be a fun game.....we'll have to rap about college hoops over in that forum this week!
 

Toledo Prophet

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Thanks guys!! Appreciate the kudos!! :00hour

Doc,
the Jags-Steeler (and a halftime winner on Pitts that I was unable to post on) bets and both on Saturday were rather large plays for me, so it has been a very nice postseason. Saturday's big winners helped take the chafe off of Penn St's free throw woes.......sorta. :142smilie

Scott,
We both hit it big with the Pack on Saturday!!! Love it! And, no I dont take that seven iron with me on my runs, although I do have a GPS chip installed in my sole, so my family can find me in case I, uh, disappear in the woods!! Maybe with the Ohio primaries coming up, I should think about bringing a peacemaker along. :mj07:
 

escarzamd

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Doc,
the Jags-Steeler (and a halftime winner on Pitts that I was unable to post on) bets and both on Saturday were rather large plays for me, so it has been a very nice postseason. Saturday's big winners helped take the chafe off of Penn St's free throw woes.......sorta.

Can't gripe......I'm probably shooting 47% myself:mj07:

waitin' for your Sunday thoughts...........leaning GB HEAVY myself........

PlayoffsDate Vs Score Week GB Line O/U
Saturday 01/12/08 Seattle W 42-20 Divisional W -9 O 44
Regular SeasonDate Vs Score Week GB Line O/U
Sunday 12/30/07 Detroit W 34-13 Week 17 W -3.5 O 39
Sunday 12/23/07 @ Chicago L 7-35 Week 16 L -9 O 32
Sunday 12/16/07 @ St. Louis W 33-14 Week 15 W -7 O 46
Sunday 12/09/07 Oakland W 38-7 Week 14 W -10 O 40.5
Thursday 11/29/07 @ Dallas L 27-37 Week 13 L 7 O 51.5
Thursday 11/22/07 @ Detroit W 37-26 Week 12 W -3.5 O 47
Sunday 11/18/07 Carolina W 31-17 Week 11 W -10 O 37
Sunday 11/11/07 Minnesota W 34-0 Week 10 W -5.5 U 41
Sunday 11/04/07 @ Kansas City W 33-22 Week 9 W 1 O 38
Monday 10/29/07 @ Denver W 19-13 x Week 8 W 3 U 43.5
BYE
Sunday 10/14/07 Washington W 17-14 Week 6 P -3 U 40.5
Sunday Night 10/07/07 Chicago L 20-27 Week 5 L -3 O 40.5
Sunday 09/30/07 @ Minnesota W 23-16 Week 4 W -1 O 37.5
Sunday 09/23/07 San Diego W 31-24 Week 3 W 5.5 O 42.5
Sunday 09/16/07 @ N.Y. Giants W 35-13 Week 2 W 1 O 40
Sunday 09/09/07 Philadelphia W 16-13 Week 1 W 3 U 41.5


Take out the Bear and that Cowboy game (which should have
been a cover save for some phantom PI calls late), and these
guys have been $$$$$$ all year, and comfortably so at that.
13-3-1 ATS for 2007 + playoffs (13-0-1 w/o Bears/Cowboys),
8-2-1 as the fave, and 13-4 over the total (3 out 4 unders
at Lambeau)........

With that said, and I know the Jints have not lost on the
road since Week 1, I have to eat the chalk dust.....plus, it might drop with all current love for the Jints and some media bias thrown in for good measure.
 

Toledo Prophet

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Playoffs: 6-1-0

Well, we are finally here....Championship Sunday.....first game kicks off in about a half an hour.

San Diego +14.5 over over New England.

Its certainly hard to make a call on a game between two of the NFLs better money makers over the last four seasons. But, the Chargers have won and covered eight in a row coming into this afternoon, and I am staying on them feeling that they can keep this game close. The Pats, meanwhile, have really had a hard time separating themselves from teams down the season's back half. They're winning, often comfortably in the end, but they just have not been able to find that extra drive that pushes past the cover number and the large spreads they've had to cover. They've failed to cover in four consecutive games and are just 2-7 ATS since the midway point of the season. Here's why I think SD can stay within the number. The Pats are a great team, but I really feel like you can move the ball on them all day. As excellent as the team is, they are not the 1985 Bears, Steel Curtain and the 2000 Ravens on defense. They have playmakers on the defensive side, but its not a lock down, good luck having sustained drives against sort of unit. They bend, and if SD can max out on its chances and not come away with empty red zone possessions they will be there in the end. They can use the same formula Jacksonville used to cover the 2-TD number. Plus, I have a hunch that San Diego and their NFL leading 53 takeaways, might force a turnover or two in this helping out their cause.

Over 47

Ok, so the weather might not be that good.....but I think both these offenses can still do enough damage to get us over the hump here.....the Chargers will blitz more than Jacksonville did, so we will see a succesful bomb or two to Moss setting up some fast touchdowns.....i think San Diego will get good position, and maybe even a score off of special teams returns with Sproles and company, like the Giants did against the Pats in the season finale.....Brady will be Brady......as good as SD is on defense, New England is not going to come up empty on too many drives. But, as I said above, i think you can move down the field on the Pats defense, and, at worst, set yourself to be in position to score.....and, thats where the rubber will meet the road for both my bets.....will SD settle for field goals, score TDs and/or convert on fourth downs....I feel they're gonna let it all hang out and with their deep stable of running backs, the addition of Chambers and emergence of Jackson and the presense of Gates, I think they might do a little better that the Jags did last week, especially in the second half when Jacksonville settled for a pair of short field goals.

I think the final margin might be the same as last weeks--11 points.......we could see the exact same score, 31-20.....but i think it might even get higher than that.

New England 38 San Diego 27.

Good luck!!
 
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