plays for 11/3-11/5

[AR182]

122-83-4 +32.90*


2*w.virginia-14 (120)..........

conn. has beaten buff., liberty,army, & syracuse & have lost to geo.tech,cin., & rutgers....wv has beaten syr., wofford, maryland,e. car.,rutgers, & loiusville...they lost only to vig. tech (only outgained by 5.8 yards per play to 5.3 ydpl)....a site i use to see strength of schedule rates conn's opponents at 23.1 & wv's at 32.6.....the point i'm making is that conn.'s stats are padded against inferior teams....

wv should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball tonight because wv's strength on offense (running) is conn's weakness on defense....conn's defense has given up 223 & 238 yds. rushing the last 2 weeks....conn. is starting a young qb vs. wv's defense ranked #9 in the country, which gives up 2.7 ypc......

conn. has faced 3 mediocre offensive teams this year & has given up at least 26 points in those games...wv has faced 3 offenses comparible to conn's & have given up an average of 9 points to those teams....

the only thing in stopping me in making this a stronger play is vw's poor record as a favorite of more than 14 points....

good luck.

 

[INtheBLUE]

I hate to say it but it might be a good tease with the over?

Whatcha think?

 

[AR182]

blue..

as of now i have no opinion on the total...

but i see conn. scoring anywhere from 3- 14 points tonight....& w. virginia scoring anywhere from 28-35 points....

good luck.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Translation:

?Hace eso la marca un bonito bueno molesta entonces qu??

Uh, I mean, translation:

That would make it a pretty good tease huh?

 

[INtheBLUE]

But with the under instead?

 

[AR182]

blue...

i don't like to tell people how to bet...it can cause too many problems....

good luck with whatever you bet...

here are some angles that some might find interesting....

teams coming off of an upset loss as a 20 point favorite (1995-2005) & are favored by 1-19.5 points 0r pick-em are...

3-12 ats (20%)...1-2 ats this year...

play against n. illinois vs. c. mich...


play against any ncaa home team favored by 10 or more but not greater than 20 points if coming off a s/u win as a favorite of 6 or less in the previous game if the current opponent lost s/u in it's previous game...

since 1998...35-16 ats (69%)...

play vandy vs. fla.

play on any < .750 college dog with a week of rest that is off a shutout win....

since 1990 19-7 ats (73%)....

play army & ark. st.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Thanks AR, and when I am in your thread you can suggest to me how to bet, anytime.

I hate teasin, but I respect your opinion enough to ask you for it.

 

[trolln4walii]

GL this week AR. Still tossing tonight's game around but right now leaning a little bit to the Huskies with that hook on there(just double checked and it's up to 15 now) :shrug: I'll wait til closer to kickoff. Looking forward to the rest of this week's great info and plays.

and.......CONGRATULATIONS on being the leader in the Infinity NCAA Contest. Great job!! :clap:

 

[taoist]

...love the angles, Al!!! Great stuff as always....


...looks like you've got another winner tonight. :clap: :clap:


...and mucho kudos for taking over the top spot in the contest. I managed to hold on to it for exactly one week...maybe you can do better. :cursin: LOL :mj07: :mj07:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it...

taoist.....in last year's contest i was winning also...but then folded like a cheap suit & came in 9th (lol)...hopefully it doesn;t happen this year.

louisville -19....played this earlier in the week...undecided whether to play this as 2* or 4* right now....

this game reminds me a little of yesterday's game....a lot of pitts stats (like conn.) is built up against inferior teams....sure pitt.is playing better & is on a 3 game winning streak, but those games were at home against poor offensive teams (cin., so. fla.,& syracuse) & where pitt's defense could dominate.but when pitt. played 2 above average offenses, they gave up 42 to n.d.& 37 to rutgers.louisville's offense is better than both of those teams by more than 1 yppl on average (that's alot) & that's combining both home & away games....at home ul is much more potent.......when ul played against 2 defenses that are better than average (oregon st. & n. car.),they scored better than 61 points.

on the other side of the ball, pitt's offense is statistically below average & ul's defense is statistically above average.also ul has one of the best pass rushes in the game..they sack the qb on a average of 4.4 times a game....against division 1 competition, pitt.gives up 3.4 sacks a game (they have a young offensive line)...so i think palko will be running for his life...which will lead to turnovers.

over the last 13 games, ul is averaging 47 ppg....i don't see pitts keeping up with that average, & staying within 3 td's.


good luck.

 

[Irish]

Nice win last night... with you tonight, hope it hits

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks irish....

a few plays for saturday....

2*n.mex. st.+35...

this is a potential flat spot for boise st...they have a game thursday against fresno st....here is something that i read....teams that played last week & have a thursday nite game coming up are 19-34-1 ats(35.8%) as home favorites aginst losing team....

4*ark. st.+5.....

mid. tenn. st. has averaged only 13.8 points per game this year & were held to just 17 total points at home by 2 teams(n. tex. & laf.) that have worse defenses than ark. st.....by sun belt standards ark. st. has a good rushing attack...

4*wash.+4....

i think wash. is a better team than oregon st....uw has probably played one of the toughest schedules this year...they played calif., n.d.,ucla, usc, oregon, & az. st....i think wash. has a better defense & a better qb....wash. qb has thrown 5 ints.& osu's qb has thrown 18 ints....imo wash. wins this game su...........

2*penn. st.-10 (120).....

penn. st. is much stronger that wisc. at point of attack...wisc.'s defense gives up 5.6 ypr & has given up an average of 307 yds. on the ground per game (that's right) in the last 4 games.....the only thing stopping me from making this a stronger play is wisc.record as a dog (26-4 ats) of more than 6 points.........

good luck.

 

[bbk]

Really like your picks; I always follow your picks every week; Oreg State cost me last week also; I am on Ark State and Penn State as well; also looking at BYU and Texas if you do have any thoughts on those that would be great; good luck this week

 

[bigdad2]

AR182 - Congrats on a solid season. I like most of your plays again this weekend but really think the Wisc/PSU game is one to look at close. Aside from OSU, Penn State has not played a team as close talent-wise as this Badger team. In that game both teams were evenly matched aside from the INT by Smith early on. I think the Badgers will not only have a turnover advantage but keep the PSU defense on the field for a LONG time. The statistic you reference is another reason why I like Wisc this weekend as the coaching staff will have this team ready. I'm not only taking the points but putting a small wager on the ML as well. Best of luck with the rest of your picks this weekend.

 

[AR182]

bbk...

thanks for the nice words..appreciate it....

byu & texas are large road favorites that i usually stay away from.....good luck this week

bigdad....

thanks for the nice words also.....

you may be right about wisc., but that yardage that they have given up over the last few games stands out to me alot.....we'll see.

you are a great capper...wish you would post your picks...

good luck.

 

[AR182]

i forgot to post this angle with the arkansas st. play.....

play on any winning road dog who pitched a shutout in it's last game if you can substantiate that this team is likely to outrush it's opponent & it does....

since 1980...ats record is 39-5....88.6%...

this is how ark. st. is the play...

in it's last game ark. st. pitched a shutout....the team rushing average for the year is 218 yds.per game....mtsu rushes for only 110 per game.....also ark. st.net yards per rush is +.8....mtsu is -1.....since 1980 there have been 1809 games in which 1 team had a positive ypr & was running for an average of 200 or more yards per game & it's opponent had a negative ypr & was running for at least 100 yds. less per game....in nearly 80% of those games the positive rusher did gain more ground yards than it's opponent.

hope this made sense to you (lol).

good luck.

 

[smurphy]

Thanks a bunch, AR. Keep up the great season.

 

[lowell]

good luck

 

[baby johnson]

thanks for the winners

 

[loophole]

we must be doing some of the same things as i also come up with ark st, nms and was. also playing usf, wyo and cal. maybe unc, ncsu. g/l buddy.