Virginia has already been tabbed as a good play for Thursday. . . but here's my favorite:
Fresno State laying 4.5 over Hawaii BIG. . .gonna play this line now in the hopes that it doesn't crawl down below 4. Several reasons this is a solid play: Revenge as the Bows just beat the Bulldogs on the 14th on the island. Now Fresno gets this team on their own rims. Travel. Look, I have no idea whether Hawaii stayed on the mainland since their last game on the 18th or not but either way I like the fact they have back to back road games with 5 days inbetween. If they stayed in the States, they are homesick. If they went home for a day or two, they are gonna have jetlag and be on a different schedule. Either way, the Bulldogs have had more time to prepare for this one. The Bows beat Fresno on the 14th by outrebounding the Dogs and a much higher shooting percentage. With Fresno being home, I expect the shooting percentages to tilt the other direction. As for rebounding, the Dogs outrebounded 9 of their last 10 opponents with Hawaii being the team that outrebounded them. I expect this to be a major focus for Tark and I believe they turn the tables on this stat as well. After two difficult wins on the road, the Bulldogs should carry some momentum into this game and take it to the Bows early and often. Hawaii is coming off a loss to a scrub team in San Jose State and is always suspect playing on the mainland. Good rule of thumb, Hawaii is a great play at home, a great fade on the road.
Now my two cents on Virginia laying 1 over Wake Forest BIG. . . first, this is a system play as Wake is the ranked road dog. That in itself makes this a play for me. Additionally, Wake has only played three road games and Virginia is undefeated at home. Cavs should be up for this game after three straight road games and winless during this road trip. They desperately need a conference win and must win at home in order to compete with the rest of the ACC. Wake is shining after home wins over Maryland and Georgia Tech so the public will likely be on them going into this game. As I noted in GMoney's thread, my real concern is rebounding. . . however, if the Cavs are as motivated as I believe they will be for this game, this may all be taken care of. If the rebounding stat is relatively close, we should be fine laying the point here.
Pacific laying 3.5 over Cal Irvine. . . Pacific is simply a different team when playing at home. . . similar to Hawaii. Seems like everything changes statistically especially the ultimate stat of wins and losses. They had won seven games straight up and ATS until their recent road trip where dropped both games. I expect them to turn things back around at home against a quality opponent and win this game in a similar fashion as they did against Utah State.
After a big night on Wednesday, may just stick with these three and call it a day. However, as most of you already know, I'll probably have a couple more before all is said and done. Still looking into Wisc Milwaukee over Butler at home, but just not sure yet. Fresno State and Virginia will make or break me no matter what.
Fresno State laying 4.5 over Hawaii BIG. . .gonna play this line now in the hopes that it doesn't crawl down below 4. Several reasons this is a solid play: Revenge as the Bows just beat the Bulldogs on the 14th on the island. Now Fresno gets this team on their own rims. Travel. Look, I have no idea whether Hawaii stayed on the mainland since their last game on the 18th or not but either way I like the fact they have back to back road games with 5 days inbetween. If they stayed in the States, they are homesick. If they went home for a day or two, they are gonna have jetlag and be on a different schedule. Either way, the Bulldogs have had more time to prepare for this one. The Bows beat Fresno on the 14th by outrebounding the Dogs and a much higher shooting percentage. With Fresno being home, I expect the shooting percentages to tilt the other direction. As for rebounding, the Dogs outrebounded 9 of their last 10 opponents with Hawaii being the team that outrebounded them. I expect this to be a major focus for Tark and I believe they turn the tables on this stat as well. After two difficult wins on the road, the Bulldogs should carry some momentum into this game and take it to the Bows early and often. Hawaii is coming off a loss to a scrub team in San Jose State and is always suspect playing on the mainland. Good rule of thumb, Hawaii is a great play at home, a great fade on the road.
Now my two cents on Virginia laying 1 over Wake Forest BIG. . . first, this is a system play as Wake is the ranked road dog. That in itself makes this a play for me. Additionally, Wake has only played three road games and Virginia is undefeated at home. Cavs should be up for this game after three straight road games and winless during this road trip. They desperately need a conference win and must win at home in order to compete with the rest of the ACC. Wake is shining after home wins over Maryland and Georgia Tech so the public will likely be on them going into this game. As I noted in GMoney's thread, my real concern is rebounding. . . however, if the Cavs are as motivated as I believe they will be for this game, this may all be taken care of. If the rebounding stat is relatively close, we should be fine laying the point here.
Pacific laying 3.5 over Cal Irvine. . . Pacific is simply a different team when playing at home. . . similar to Hawaii. Seems like everything changes statistically especially the ultimate stat of wins and losses. They had won seven games straight up and ATS until their recent road trip where dropped both games. I expect them to turn things back around at home against a quality opponent and win this game in a similar fashion as they did against Utah State.
After a big night on Wednesday, may just stick with these three and call it a day. However, as most of you already know, I'll probably have a couple more before all is said and done. Still looking into Wisc Milwaukee over Butler at home, but just not sure yet. Fresno State and Virginia will make or break me no matter what.
