Nova Report
The 17-15 Villanova Wildcats take on the 20-11 Creighton BlueJays at 9:30 eastern in Madison Square Garden. Creighton is -4.5/134.5. Nova dismantled Georgetown yesterday. Once the Cats got up by double digits it seemed like only Primo Spears of the Hoyas came to play so Nova rolled and the total went under. Creighton had a bye yesterday. 11 days ago Villanova beat Creighton by 12. Afterwards, Coach McDermott proclaimed ‘No one will want to play Villanova in the Garden, nobody!’. Well, we’ll see tonight. Nonetheless, most prognosticators are on Creighton-4.5 and many are picking them to win the Big East Conference Tournament.
Creighton shot 19% from 3 in their loss to Nova. That’s unlikely to repeat. Eric Dixon went crazy from 3 in that game and scored 31. That’s unlikely to repeat. As usual, it’s all about rebounding in this one as Creighton has 7’1” Ryan Kalkbrenner and Nova’s tallest player is Dixon at 6’8”. Creighton has solid players at every position and any of them are capable of scoring 25 points. Nova got to rest Moore and Dixon as they won by 32. Turnovers, free throws and making 3’s will dictate the outcome. Most pundits have this being a defensive battle…which makes sense.
What Will Happen
As Nova Coach Kyle Neptune said: you throw out the records and each game is the Super Bowl. For Nova, it’s win or go to the NIT. For Creighton, it’s all about seeding in the Big Dance.
When the Cats beat Creighton 11 days ago, they were able to pull Kalkbrenner away from the rim as Eric Dixon hit about 6 three pointers. Will Nova try that again? Will they use him as a decoy instead? Will Creighton attack the rim because they couldn’t shoot from outside or will they figure their shots will start falling? This will be quite the chess match.
This looks to me to be a defensive battle with each possession being critically important. Kalkbrenner will get his points and so will Trey Alexander. Nova must make sure Nembhard and Scheirman stay quiet. Nembhard has been pretty good this year at protecting the ball but he can still wilt under pressure. Someone will need to get hot for Villanova and they’ll need to ratchet up the defense. Both teams may foul a lot near the end of the game if they’re down by more than one possession. It pains me to say that Nova loses a close one tonight.
Nova Pick: 4.5 point teaser Nova+9/Over 130
Nova Pick Record: 14-17-1