Nova Report
The 11-1 St. John’s Red Storm visit the Villanova Campus to take on the 6-5 Wildcats. The line is Nova -5.5/146.5. Tip is 6:30 pm eastern.
The Red Storm have won 3 straight after a loss to Iowa St (who also beat Villanova) and they took apart a Florida St team last out. Nova has won 4 straight and comes off a horrendous showing in a 7 point win over St. Joe’s.
St. John’s is known for Coach Anderson’s 40 minutes of Hell defense. He’s a damn good Coach and has a pretty good club this year. Joel Soriano (15.3 ppg/12.6 rebounds) dominates scoring and rebounding around the glass. David Jones (DePaul transfer) pours in 15.1 ppg and 7.4 boards. Guards Andre Curbelo and Posh Alexander combine for 20 ppg. They run a ball hawking D and an up tempo offense (10th in country).
As for the Wildcats, Coach Neptune is still trying to figure which 5 players offer the Cats their best shot at winning. Over the last decade, Nova had 5 guys who can score and defend even though they had a thin bench. So far, they have just 3 guys who can score and 3 guys who can defend…and they’re not the same guys. They’ll need to step it up tonight to win their first Conference game.
What Will Happen
St John’s has a height advantage and a quickness advantage. Since they score their points mostly from inside, look for them to pound it into Soriano and have their guards take the ball to the rim. Defensively, they’ll press the slower and inexperienced Nova guards. Nova will likely put the ball in the hands of Daniels mostly to break the press. Armstrong and Arcidiacono will need to be on top of their game to avoid turnovers. St John’s neither shoots or defends the 3 well. Nova takes over 50% of their shots from beyond the arc. Expect more of the same.
The Cats are still in the learning phase when it comes to switching defenses. Look for the Red Storm to move the ball around to exploit that weakness. The wild card for Nova is Whitmore. Last game, Coach Neptune wouldn’t let him drive to the basket because of some of his turnovers. He’ll need to let Whitmore loose tonight to keep the Cats in this one.
This is a real tough game to figure out. For some unknown reason, St John’s has not shot well on the Nova campus. Additionally, if the Wildcats hit from outside, the game should go Over 146.5. If they throw up bricks? Will Nova handle the press and get easy hoops? Will the Cats play up to their competition as usual?
My Crystal Ball says the Wildcats rise to the occasion tonight and take a close one.
My Nova Pick: 5 point teaser St John’s+10.5/Over 141.5
Nova Pick Record: 6-5