Nova Report
The 7-5 Villanova Wildcats are in Hartford to take on the 13-0 and #2 ranked UCONN Huskies at 6:30 pm on FS1. The Huskies are -11.5/136.5.
Nova has won 5 straight. 4 of 5 against cream puffs. Oklahoma being the one decent victory. If we take a look at the UCONN wins vs teams ranked higher than the Cats, they beat Alabama by 15, Iowa St by 18 and Oklahoma St by 10. Most recently, they struggled for 30 minutes vs Georgetown before pulling away. Nova looked the best they have all season (not saying much) against St Johns.
The Nova faithful don’t believe the Cats have a chance this evening. UCONN is tall, quick and deep. Sanogo averages 18.6 ppg/7.2 boards. In fairness, Eric Dixon played him pretty tough last year. Hawkins hits 42% from 3 and averages 14.3 ppg. And why not mention 7’2” Donovan Clingan averaging 7 boards a game…and now starting to score as well. Tristan Newton tosses in over 10 ppg. They are one of the best rebounding clubs (Nova one of the worst) in America. And…they are the Best in America in defending the 3 (60% of the Cats shots are from 3).
Basically, save Cam Whitmore of Nova, the Huskies are more talented at every position. So, what will Nova Coach Kyle Neptune do?
What Will Happen
Since Coach Hurley has the best 3 defense in college, his troops will be encouraged to keep that up. Clearly, he’ll want to relegate Nova to one shot per trip. Offensively, they can pitch the ball in to their redwoods for layups…or the tall guys can pass it back out for uncontested 3’s as they will expect Nova to double team the guys underneath. Having seen quite a few of these games in Connecticut, the fan base absolutely hates Villanova as do the players. If they could beat them by 50, they will, no mercy will be shown.
For the Wildcats, they undoubtedly watched the Georgetown tape. The Hoyas passed the ball around sharply on the perimeter until they got the shot they wanted. They also were relentless at contesting every rebound. Eventually, they just ran out of gas.
The Villanova fan base are crying out for Whitmore to start. I would be shocked if that happened. So, he’ll get in probably at the first tv timeout. Both he and Armstrong like to push the pace but playing at a snail pace may be the Cats best shot vs the Huskies. Look for Arcidiacono to bring the ball up. He’s slow but rarely commits a turnover. Dixon will have to neutralize Sanogo both scoring and rebound wise. He’s done it before. Defending Clingan is the wild card. My guess is Slater will try to push him around. For sure, on the offense, Slater can get him to commit some fouls. Ultimately, for Nova to cover, they will have to hit north of 40% from 3 and get a few Huskie starters in foul trouble. Making free throws a must but they excel at that.
Nova tends to play up to their competition. Whitmore will look to showcase his future NBA talents. If they don’t dig themselves in a hole at the start, they can compete here.
My Nova Pick…let’s go with a 5 point teaser: Nova+16.5/Over 131.5
Nova Pick Record: 6-6