Qatar Masters

[Stanley]

Course: Doha Golf Club, Doha, Qatar
Yardage: 7110
Par: 72 (four par-fives)
Greens: Tiff Green 328 overseeded with Poa Trivialis

Weather Forecast

Best Players Last 10 Years

Past Winners:
2001 - Tony Johnstone
2000 - Rolf Muntz
1999 - Paul Lawrie
1998 - Andrew Coltart

 

[bettingmad]

Having a small interest on Brian Davis at the 40/1 with Eurobet (as low as 16/1 with Blue Square). Excellent 4th place last week in Dubai with a closing round of 67. Finished 5th here in 2000.

Pity the 40/1 Estes & Davis could not be found at the same place for the greedy double!! ... had to take 33/1 twice at Paddy Power... 1155/1 will just have to do

 

[milpalm]

After browsing this excellent forum for a while I feel like contributing. My picks this week:

Anders Hansen (100/1 WillHill, gone now), good record on this course and there is no way he should be that big.
Muntz (80/1 Bet365, also gone), 12th last week, superb course form
Owen (50/1, Surrey), 12th in Dubai, 8th here last year
Gronberg (33/1, WillHill), played well this year and has a decent record here

Also like Kjeldsen 66/1. Excellent record in Qatar and it's no wonder this is his favourite tournament.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays:

Ian Woosnam to win 25/1 e.w. @ Easybets or Centrebet
Fantastic record in this event. In its four-year history, Woosie has finished 9th, 8th, 2nd and 13th. In somewhat erratic form at the moment, but did finish 6th in Malaysia two weeks ago and looks better value than Clarke at single figures.

Mathias Gronberg to win 28/1 e.w. @ SportingOdds
Decent if unspectacular course form with top-30 finishes in each of the last three years. Finished strong last week to secure a match win and make it two top-10 (plus one top-20) finish from four starts this season. The Swede has rarely been this consistent.

Carl Pettersson to win 66/1 e.w. @ TattsBet
The bulky Swede has been a profitable selection in the past few months and it is rather a surprise to see such odds on him still available. Didn't start the season in South Africa and Australia as strong as he finished last season, but after three week's rest he secured yet another top-5 finish with 3rd place last week. Top-30 last year so he does have course experience as well.


Welcome aboard milpalm. Good luck with your picks ... especially with Gronberg

 

[Stanley]

Forgot to mention, these plays are for 1.5 units.

Have weighted plays for a long time to 1, 2 or 3 units. Now applying the same principle to confidence in plays across Tours not just within an event. PGA Tour events get the greatest coverage from the books, but the lines are also the sharpest. Better to exploit a decisive edge in Seniors golf than to weight them the same as on the PGA Tour.

Weights are now generally 1 unit, but 1.5 units for the European and LPGA Tours (after season is 4 events old) and 2 units for Senior PGA Tour.

 

[Monarch]

72 Hole Matchups:

72 Hole Matchups:

Clarke v Montgomerie 8/11 @ Hills - 3 Units.

Woosnam v Montgomerie 10/11 @ Heathorns - 2 Units.

Monty is riddled with issues at the moment. If the wind blows (like its ever let this tournament down before) then I'll take those with solid course experience and proven wind players over an out of sorts Montgomerie. I just can't in my wildest dreams see Monty figuring this week. Let's hope for no nightmares.

 

[Ian]

Well the odd post won't do any harm as they all finish 2nd no matter what I do!
Bet365 were very kind in responding to my email asking - What about Muntz? - I guess 100/1 seemed quite generous at the time

 

[Monarch]

Final Selections:

Final Selections:

B Davis 33/1 @ Spodds
R Karlsson 50/1 @ Spodds
G Owen 50/1 @ Spodds - All 1 Unit ew

T Jaidee 100/1 @ Ladbrokes
P Sjoland 100/1 @ BET365
P Fowler 66/1 @ Spodds - All 1/2 Unit ew

Wind invariably blows this event wide open. I'm looking towards those with a proven record of coping with the elements and battling through. Staying out of trouble as opposed to heavy scoring may be the key this week.

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch,
Davis is still 40/1 at Eurobet (7.05am Wed)

 

[Monarch]

I just checked bettingmad and he's now down to 28/1 at Eurobet -11:30am. Early birds must have taken a chunk. Thanks anyway.

 

[Monarch]

European Tour Stat Question:

European Tour Stat Question:

Does anybody know where I can find scoring averages for the European Tour for pre-cut, 3rd and 4th rds? Europeantour.com only has 72 hole scoring averages and would appreciate somewhere that breaks it down.

 

[bettingmad]

Monarch,
Davis was headlined by Chappers in the Racing Post today... it wouldn't help the price!!

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Phillip Price to beat Paul Lawrie -110 @ Bet365 or Surrey
Decent form on the PGA Tour earlier this year and an acclimatizing mid-table finish last week, Price looks in much better form than Lawrie who missed the cut in Dubai and has played very little golf this year. The only thing in Lawrie favor is that he won this title in 1999, but it was Price who was 2nd.

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Rolf Muntz -111 @ Simon Bold
Opposing the unpredictable Muntz who has an excellent record in this event, including a win in 2000, but has not recorded a top-10 finish in any event for the last 20 months. He ended a run of three missed cuts with 12th last week and he will probably perform better than usual in Qatar, but he is not a player who inspires confidence in him. We have not seen a repeat of the blistering form that brought three successive top-3 finishes in 2000, but he has become very consistent and should match his top-15 finish of last year.

Carl Pettersson to beat Rolf Muntz -118 @ BetInternet [3 units]
Rising star and outright picks against a course specialist, but one who has continually struggled to secure his Tour card. If Jacobson can beat Muntz, so will Pettersson with ease.

 

[Stanley]

Monarch, I'm pretty sure there isn't a site that lists the European Tour players' scoring stats on such a basis. But if you want to email me - see my homepage for address - I can have an Excel sheet ready for you by the end of the afternoon

 

[milpalm]

Some massive prices at Sports.com. Owen 66/1, Webster 66/1 and Kjeldsen 100/1. Shame about the 4 places though.

 

[Clive]

Thank heaven for this forum, having to put up with the complete crap punters over here are subjected to via the Racing Post and Smartbet is pissing me off.

The 'No 1' Golf Tipster, according to the Racing Post decides to invest this week on 3/1 Woods...inspired or what. He then goes on to describe Woosnam as attractively priced at 20/1!! He does mange to sniff out Kjeldsen at 150/1 and bravely invests 0.5 EW!

If he had any concept of value he would have placed the whole of his Woods stake on Kjeldsen...did anybody get 150/1?

Anyway, I do agree with Brian Davis at 40/1, although that price was a lot easier to get on Monday. Of the others;

Mathias Gronberg was 33 with Hills
Greg Owen 50/1

Would much rather bet here than at Bay Hill this week.

 

[Monarch]

1st Rd 3 ball Accumulator:

1st Rd 3 ball Accumulator:

S Hansen - Lomas - Scahill 17/10
B Davis - Coltart - Player 4/5
G Orr - Pilkington - Bjornstad 13/10
C Pettersson - Forsbrand - Seve 4/5

1 Unit @ Hills.

 

[Stanley]

Nice accumulator Monarch. Pity about those damn ties, bring it down to just over 4/1 by my reckoning

 

[Monarch]

Cheers Stanley. Was a little concerned with the final match having to play remaining 3 holes this morning. Should offset the horrific 3 balls I played at Bay Hill.

 

[Stanley]

Mid-point update:

Price/Lawrie Leads by 2
Jacobson/Muntz Trails by 1
Pettersson/Muntz All Square

Woosnam 8th
Gronberg 27th
Pettersson 45th

Thought I had two matchup wins secure when Muntz was +4 after 27 holes ... but he shot 6-under-par for the last 9 holes and finished one under the cut line All to play for over the weekend, worst-placed Pettersson is only 5 shots out of a top-5 spot.