i think the betting progression is a bad idea. once you start to lose 3 or 4 games you lose your concentration and get nervous about losing huge amounts of units. if it was this easy everyone would do progressive betting. what if you lose 12 games in a row. starting with 100 bucks in game one you'd be down a fortune. sure the odds of that happening are very slim, its not worth losing that much over a losing streak.
Question about bankroll management
- Thread starter LasVegasErnie
- Start date
I don't mean to sound flip Hoops, but since Nov 1st, I've been hitting NBA 2H's at an average of 80%. Sometimes 75, sometimes up to 85%. I suppose the inevitable downswing is coming, buy I truly don't expect to get whacked 12 games running. I know, it's possible, but not probable.HoopsGuru said:
Besides, if losing a certain amount of bets at one level drtops me below that level, I'm down to the next lowest betting level. Kind of a turniquet to stop the bleeding so to speak.
congrats, that's truly remarkable. if you can sustain anything long term over 55 % you're a solid capper. if you can maintain over 60 % then maybe you should be doing this as a living (not sure if you are now or not). good luck though with whatever you do. let us know what you decide on.
Ernie, if you've found a handicapping niche that you feel confident with, have documented evidence to support your handicapping theory and can spend time reviewing your losses....then by all means, use a progressive wagering strategy.
When you find a niche (like NBA halftimes) and you win far more than you lose, it's safe to assume your selections are based on relevant data and you expect to win. You enjoy winning, but you also enjoy the game of wits.
If you lose and spend time trying to understand what prompted you to pick the losing side....this is "advanced" handicapping.
If you are doing this, then I'd say it's okay to use a progressive betting strategy.
Anything short of this can be costly.
Just my .02
LasVegasErnie said:
Dude if you are hitting 80%, let me know where your threads are for your past performance, and I will coattail that chit!!
Nicely put buddy. I wish I could say it was my handicapping ability. But it's just number crunching. No more, no less. Everything is done with a calculater. No decisions. No guess work.buddy said:
I'm waiting for that inevitable downswing. I hope it's later than sooner.
I'm gonna use this betting progression from here on. It seems to have a built in stop loss.
I'd be more than happy to post em ITB, but I only have 1 or 2 a night. By the time I do the math, and put my bets in, there's no time left to post em and give you guys a chance to get em in.INtheBLUE said:
On the nights that I do have enough time to post em, I gladly will.
I hear ya. I have won alot of bets through parlays and what not but I bet huge on Wash st against SC and they got blown away. Others I have done too. ISU really tore me up against KU.cisco said:
Even worse though if I didnt bet as much and won the bet I would feel bad because I knew it was a "loc". anyone know what I mean?
LasVegasErnie said:
It appears you have identified the most important part of this scenario......
There are a number of methods, systems, theory's, etc, that could be construed as "money management", but the critical component is the stop gap.
Every 'capper comes across that string of losses that appears no matter how much effort has been applied. Those inevitable times need to be addressed by a money management stopper that allows continued play even after the losing streak.
You're on the right track....good Luck
