Road To The Triple Crown Talk

[KOSMOT]

2010 road to
Kentucky Derby

(Updated 2-22-10)

Here is the official ranking, but it will change daily as the pretenders fall away and more contenders are added.

1. Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) won the CashCall Futurity on Dec. 19 and steps to the head of this class. Colt worked six furlongs in 1:15.40 on Feb. 22 at Santa Anita Park. Trainer Bob Baffert said the colt?s next start would be on dirt but it looks like he?ll be in the San Felipe on March 13 at Santa Anita.

2. Eskendereya (Giant?s Causeway) ran away with the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 20 at Gulfstream Park.

3. Caracortado (Cat Dreams) won the Robert Lewis on Feb. 13 and made it look easy. Colt stalked the two frontrunners (Tiz Chrome and American Lion) and then took off when jockey Paul Atkinson pushed the button. Trainer Mike Machowsky said the colt is a little ?mentally challenged? but he was all business in the Lewis. Machowsky is looking at a showdown with Lookin at Lucky in the San Felipe.

4. Rule (Roman Ruler) won the Sam F. Davis on Feb. 13 at Tampa Bay Downs off a two-and-a-half months layoff. Florida Derby or Wood Memorial at Aqueduct is next.

5. Sidney?s Candy (Candy Ride) wowed everybody in the San Vicente on Feb. 15 at Santa Anita Park. This guys looks like he wants to run all day. He may go next in the Gotham at Aqueduct. If he wins, he goes to the top of the list.

6. Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft) proved he could stretch out by winning the Risen Star.

7. Conveyance (Indian Charlie) won the Southwest at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 20.

8. D?Funnybone (D?Wildcat) got back on the Derby trail with a win on Feb. 20 in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park.

9. Dublin (Afleet Alex) was second (three-quarters of a length) to Conveyance in the Southwest, but he was closing fast and would have won if the race were 25 yards longer.

10. Dave in Dixie (Dixie Union) was flying late in the Lewis and looks like he?ll be a terror in a months time. San Felipe is next.

11. Super Saver (Maria?s Mon) won the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:02.10 on Feb. 21 at Palm Meadows. Gotham or Rebel at Oaklawn Park is in his future.

12. Tempted to Tapit (Tapit) second in the Risen Star, but watch out when this guy learns to run.

13. Buddy?s Saint (Saint Liam) got mugged in the Fountain of Youth and gets another chance. Trainer Bruce Levine said on Feb. 21 colt came out of the Fountain of Youth OK after getting roughed up on first turn of race.

14. Connemara (Giant?s Causeway) won the El Camino Real on Feb. 20 at Golden Gate in Northern California.

15. American Lion (Tiznow) was third in the Lewis. The time off may have been his enemy. San Felipe or Sunland Derby at Sunland Park is next.

16. Tiz Chrome (Tiznow) was fourth in the Lewis and layoff also may have hurt him. Gotham is next.

17. Noble?s Promise (Cuvee) was second in the CashCall Futurity, but he was not threatening the winner. Colt worked four furlongs in 48.40 on Feb. 20 at Gulfstream Park. Rebel on March 13 is next.

18. Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil) ran second to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth. He may be a notch below the tops one.

19. Aikenite (Yes It?s True) was third in the Fountain of Youth. He may just always be a trifecta horse.

20. Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor) was fourth in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. Didn?t impress.

20. Savemyspotimbeting (Vindication) ran away and broke his maiden at first asking on Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park. You just got to love that name. He?s owned by Frank Calabrese and trained by Danny Miller. An allowance race is in his future according to his trainer.

The pretenders? list: Homeboykris, Ron the Greek, Dryfly, Colizeo, Cool Bullet, Thank U Philippe, Mine N Gems, Maximus Ruler, Turf Melody, Rule by Night, Worldly, Citrus Kid, Cool Bullet, Peppi Knows (won the Whirlaway), Bushwhacked, Tahitian Warrior, Nextdoorneighbor and Eightyfiveinafifty.
Eightyfiveinafifty bolted on the first turn of the Whirlaway at Aqueduct Racetrack on Feb. 6 and did not finish the race.

Laus Deo (Medaglia d?Oro) won the Count Fleet on Jan. 2 at Aqueduct. What?s going on with this colt? He hasn?t worked since Jan. 18 at Palm Meadows. He owned by Rick Porter?s Fox Hill Farm.

Lentenor, the full brother of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, broke his maiden in a turf race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 20 and his trainer Michael Matz says if things work out he will put him into a Derby prep race. Colt was second in a mile-and-an-eighth turf allowance race on Feb. 17 (Wednesday) at Gulfstream Park.

Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview.com

 

[KOSMOT]

Tuesday, February 23, 2010
He's A Rebel

The way the Daily Racing Form website is painting the picture the Grade 3 $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park will be the most major of all the major Kentucky Derby prep races. It was revealed today that three-time Derby winning trainer, Bob Baffert, is likely to ship the current Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky, into Hot Springs for the Rebel rather that run in the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Of course, that is not definite yet but in the Super Six Derby Pix yesterday, I commented that I had believed the plan all along to be that Lookin At Lucky would get shipped out of California and that I didn't think running in the San Felipe was such a good idea. Now that Lookin At Lucky could be shipped to run on conventional dirt as opposed to the Southern California synthetics, this could put him further ahead of everyone else on the Road To The Roses. In case you were concerned about Baffert anyway, don't forget that he did saddle the winner of the Southwest Stakes on Saturday in Conveyance. Baffert is currently saying that Conveyance will skip the Rebel Stakes. All of this will be bad news for the connections of Noble's Promise. He has been unable to defeat Lookin At Lucky when they have met so far and Noble's Promise is also expected in the starting gate for the Rebel. Also, don't forget that D. Wayne Lukas still has Dublin, runner-up to Conveyance in the Southwest, likely to run in the Rebel Stakes as well.

From the local standpoint, meaning my home track of Turf Paradise, Uh Oh Bango is also expected to be heading from Phoenix to Hot Springs to run in the Rebel Stakes. Uh Oh Bango's last race was a second in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. That result has been magnified by the excellent last race of the horse that beat Uh Oh Bango, Rule. Rule won the Grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and is almost certainly going to be in the gate for the Derby, barring any setbacks for trainer Todd Pletcher.

All this means that the Rebel might give us the clearest picture yet of what we can expect come May 1. There will be contenders and pretenders giving a Billy Idol-esque "Rebel Yell" when the gates open on March 13.

Tune in for more from They Are Off. For right now, I am Gone... GOODBYE!
Posted by Michael Chamberlain at 8:26 PM

 

[KOSMOT]

The Program seeks first stakes victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes

February 25, 2010 by Ryan

Bob Baffert has a deep stable of three-year-olds this year. The Program may be his fourth or fifth best sophomore, and he is the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes which is a prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. That really says something about his stable when he is sending out his fourth stringer for a nice prep race worth $150k.

The field for this race looks fairly weak and I have a hard time seeing any of the entrants making it to Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May, but anything is possible. The Program is probably the most likely candidate. He will be racing for Thoroughbred Legends Racing Stable and Martin Garcia will be in the irons. The son of Harlan?s Holiday was last seen scoring a nose victory over Indian Firewater in an allowance event. He was fourth in the CashCall Futurity at the age of two. The extra distance in this race should suit him well. He obviously wouldn?t be a surprise.

Kettle River enters the Sham on a two race win streak for trainer Eion Harty and owner Darley Stable. He defeated The Program in his last race which was an allowance win. He is working up a storm, but I have to wonder if the distance will suit him. He is a son of Congaree. Brice Blanc will get the call to ride. He has started just three times, and I doubt we have seen his best stuff yet. Maybe this is his coming out party?

Alphie?s Bet figures to get plenty of support for trainer Alexis Barba. The son of Tribal Rule was last seen breaking his maiden against state bred company at Santa Anita over the lawn. Before that he was second behind Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Caracortado in the California Breeders Champion Stakes. He is a big time closer, so he will need things to get hot up front if he is going to have a chance. He is working up a storm and should run well.

Michael Machowsky is getting recognition as the trainer of Caracortado, but he also has a tough Triple Crown contender with Nextdoorneighbor. He is a son of the Chilean bred Lido Palace. He took a maiden special weight by four lengths last out in his third trip to the track. The colt figures to get the distance. Mike Smith will pick up the mount in place of Rafeal Bejarano who has opted to ride Setsuko. Both colts look strong. Setsuko is bred to run all day as a son of Pleasantly Perfect with Mr. Prospector on the dams side.

 

[KOSMOT]

Thursday, February 25, 2010
The Death Of The Dual Qualifier

As the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum looms closer and folks begin to formulate opinions, calculations and taro card results into their "picks", the term dual qualifier is likely to make an appearance. It is a system designed by the late Daily Racing Form pedigree columnists Leon Rasmussen in his efforts to define the qualifications of a Kentucky Derby winner.

In the early 1980s, Rasmussen studied the dosage profiles of every winner of the Kentucky Derby going back to 1929 and discovered that every one had a dosage index of less than 4.00. While researching the Derby winners, Rasmussen also noticed that most of them had achieved significant success during their two-year-old seasons. So using the Experimental Free Handicap and the dosage index, Rasmussen designed the dual qualifier system.

The Experimental Free Handicap, published annually by The Jockey Club since 1935, is a ranking by weight of the year?s leading two-year-olds racing at a mythical distance of 1-1/16 miles on dirt. The 2009 weighting committee was composed the racing secretaries at Churchill Downs, the New York Racing Association, and the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

Last year the top weighted 2-year-old males were Lookin at Lucky and Vale of York, both at 126 pounds.

Rasmussen defined a dual qualifier as any horse that is weighted within ten pounds of the high-weighted horse in the Experimental Free Handicap and has a dosage profile of 4.00 or less.

The system had it's glitches in the 1990s as outlined on The Brock Talk Tuesday, but in the last ten years have only produced one dual qualifier. In 2007 winner Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby with a 2.14 DI and was top weighted at 127 lbs. in the previous year's Experimental.

Excepts for Giacomo's close 4.33 DI in 2005 and Mine That Bird's 5.40 DI last year, the dosage qualification has held up for the other eight winners.

It is the Experimental Free Handicap that began to become more literal in terms of predicting a Kentucky Derby winner over the last decade. But before you go cussing the racing secretaries, (they get plenty by definition of their job), look at the freshman race records of the Derby winners during the oughts.

Both 2000 and 2001 winners, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos respectively, were maidens when they turned three. The next Derby victor, War Emblem won an Arlington Park maiden race and an allowance at Fair Grounds in three 2-year-old races but never started in a stake.

Funny Cide (2003) and Smarty Jones (2004) were both stakes winners at two, but both against state-bred company. Smarty Jones won at Philadephia Park and Funny Cide took the BF Bongard and Sleepy Hilo at Belmont.

None of the first five Derby winners of the decade were even rated by the committees essentially making them not among the top 100 or so juveniles of their respective years.

Giacomo broke that streak in 2005 being weighted at 122 pounds in the Experimental, just four pounds lower than co-top weights Declan's Moon and Wilko.

Barbaro also missed the dual qualifier mark because of the Experimental Free Handicap, only because his 114 pound assignment was 12 pounds below that of Stevie Wonderboy. In a bit of a handicap quirk, Barbaro was ranked as the 18th best juvenile of the year by the committee, which is normally within the 10 pound parameters. When dual qualifier Ferdinand won the Derby in 1986 with 116 pound credentials in the Experimental, he was tied for 36th best among the two-year-olds of 1985.

Street Sense (photo) revived the dual qualifier system with his Derby victory in 2007 with a 2.14 DI and credentials as the top weighted 2-year-old in the Experimental at 127 pounds. As the winner of the Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Street Sense also broke the 22-year Juvenile/Derby double jinx and gave jockey Calvin Borel his first Derby win.

But the string of Derby winners not rated in the previous year's Expermental Free Handicap has begun again with the last runnings.

Big Brown had a 1.67 DI, but was not ranked after only starting once as a 2-year-old, in a 11-1/2 length win over maidens. Mine That Bird had only three minor stakes in Canada and a last-place finish in the Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile to unsuccessfully impress the committee.

So take the following list of this year's dual qualifiers with a grain of salt perhaps, but realize also, that there continue to be pro-dual qualifier arguments and there is some validity to rational behind the system.

Horse, EFH Weight, DI
Lookin At Lucky,126,3.33
Vale of York (IRE) 126, 2.08
Noble's Promise 124, 3.36
Buddy's Saint 123, 1.67
Pounced 122, 1.07
Super Saver 122, 3.00
Aikenite 119, 2.60
D' Funnybone 119, 1.77
Bridgetown 118, 3.00
Make Music for Me 118, 3.31
Awesome Act 117, 3.57
Dublin 117, 2.33
Homeboykris 117, 3.67
Interactif 117, 2.83
Discreetly Mine 116, 2.76
The Program 116, 3.00

Qualifying Fillies
She Be Wild, 123 2.69
Hot Dixie Chick,121 3.00
Beautician, 120 2.20
Negligee, 120 2.08
Tapitsfly, 119 2.33
Biofuel, 118 1.86
Mi Sueno, 118 3.00
Sassy Image, 118 2.25
Always a Princess,116 1.67
Awesome Maria, 116, 2.23
Devil May Care, 116, 2.53
Rose Catherine, 116, 4.00
Tizahit, 114, 1.75
Ailalea, 113, 3.27
Posted by Brock Sheridan at 11:54 AM

 

[KOSMOT]

Kentucky Derby Trail: Eight Isn't Enough
By Steve Haskin
Updated: Tuesday, March 2, 2010 12:18 PM

There are so many top 3-year-olds who still have questions to answer it makes it tough to come up with a list of 12 horses each week that you?re perfectly happy with.

There are always going to be horses you?d love to include who just haven?t done quite enough to warrant supplanting the more accomplished horses. With the 3-year-old action this past weekend limited to several minor stakes and maiden and allowance races, this is a good time to fill out the Top 20 list, adding the final eight, and give recognition to horses that are one race away from surpassing some of those currently in the Top 12.

As for the questions still left unanswered, remember that Lookin At Lucky will have only two starts before the Derby, and if he goes the San Felipe (gr. II)-Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) route, he?ll go to Louisville as an unknown quantity on dirt, as would Californians Connemara, American Lion, Sidney's Candy, and Dave in Dixie, and any others who remain at Santa Anita.

Noble's Promise also will have only two starts, and we?ll know more about his ability to handle dirt when he debuts in the March 13 Rebel Stakes (gr. III).

Rule, Conveyance, Super Saver, Discreetly Mine, and Eskendereya all appear to want to be on or close to the lead, and all must still prove they can settle off the pace and be able to close, with the pace in the Derby appearing at this point to be a contentious one.

Perhaps the biggest enigma is Buddy's Saint, who we had to reluctantly drop from the Top 12 after trainer Bruce Levine said he?d likely run next in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) next, giving him not even two races (more like one and a half) this year. Even if he bounces back and runs big in the Wood, can he possibly have enough foundation to make a major impact on the Derby? Levine is in a tough situation and it has to be frustrating for him to have a horse of this quality and see his already tenuous schedule pretty much fall apart. We still feel this is a talented colt, and a decision will have to be made whether to risk pushing him to make a race as grueling and demanding as the Derby. If there is one factor in his favor it?s that he already has a mile and an eighth victory at 2 under his belt, as well as a huge effort at a mile.

With him not running until early April, it?s difficult to know what to do with him, so we?ll put him in limbo until the Wood gets closer and we see how he?s training for it. He was ranked No. 1, so he always has to be in the back of your mind.

Here are the remaining horses who complete our Top 20.

13?Jackson Bend/Nick Zito/Hear No Evil ?Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat

He?s as honest as they come and has never finished worse than second in eight career starts. He will win his fair share of major stakes this year. As a Derby horse, however, he always looks strong turning for home, but hasn?t been able to follow through in the final quarter. He ran an excellent race in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), leaving a great deal of room for improvement, and held on well for second in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (gr. II) after failing to keep up with Eskendereya. But you just want to see a little more closing punch in the stretch.

14?Interactif/Todd Pletcher/Broken Vow ?Broad Pennant, by Broad Brush

Still a big believer in him, especially now that Pletcher has strongly hinted he will point for the SA Derby. He was ridden more like a dirt horse in his two stakes wins, making a big early move to the lead. In his last two, he had to go wide on the first turn and was forced to press the pace. I just want to see what he can do when he takes back and his move is timed right. He?s just a horse I enjoy watching run and want to see return to the dirt. If you run like a dirt horse and are bred like a dirt horse?well, you know the rest. If it doesn?t work out, he?s still one of the top young turf horses in the country.

15?Stay Put/Steve Margolis/Broken Vow ?O.K. Mom, by Dixieland Band

He is proving himself to be a consistent closer who puts in his run every time, and has shown he can win closer to the pace, breaking his maiden in the slop at Fair Grounds racing just behind the leaders. He had little chance in the Risen Star (gr. III) with the sluggish pace and losing a lot of ground turning for home, but still was beaten only 2 3/4 lengths. He?ll be dangerous when he gets a good pace to run at.

16?Connemara/Todd Pletcher/Giant's Causeway ?Satin Sunrise, by Mr. Leader

Believe we?ve only seen the tip of the iceberg with this flashy-looking colt. His :22 3/5 third quarter and :12 2/5 final eighth in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) were impressive. If there was any shot of him trying dirt before the Kentucky Derby he?d likely be in the top 12, but I?m not crazy about him having his final prep for the big race in the March 27 Lane?s End Stakes (gr. II) and going to Churchill with a big question mark hanging over his head. Pletcher has no other recourse, having to try to spread out so many Derby horses.

17?Radiohead/Rick Dutrow/Johannesburg?Security Interest, by Belong to Me

He had no trouble handling a tough allowance field, including Champagne (gr. I) winner Homeboykris, drawing off to a 3 1/4-length victory with a sharp :23 4/5 final quarter. The son of Johannesburg is a group II winner and group I-placed in England, and his race in the Grey Goose Breeders? Cup Juvenile (gr. I) was much better than it looks on paper (see more on that below). There?s not a lot of pure stamina in his immediate tail-female family, but you do have Fappiano and Stage Door Johnny farther back. Distance question marks aside, he does look like an intriguing prospect.

18?Uptowncharlybrown/Alan Seewald/Limehouse ?La Iluminada, by Langfuhr

Still not quite sure how far he wants to go or how he?ll stack up against the better 3-year-olds, but his final sixteenth of the Sam F. Davis (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs suggests there is more improvement to come. Would like to see a bit more turn of foot on the turn, but all in all he looks to have a bright future, and he?s definitely one of the feel-good stories on this year?s Derby trail.

19?Nextdoorneighbor/Mike Machowsky/LidoPalace?Fencelineneighbor, by Wild Rush

Machowsky wasn?t happy about the week?s delay of the Sham Stakes (gr. III), but at least he gets another shot at the draw after originally having the 10-post. He hasn?t been tested for class, but has always been highly regarded and looked good breaking his maiden. He?s been turning in some eye-popping works and should be just as dangerous coming back a week later. He needs graded earnings and likely will have two races to get them. With stablemate Caracortado headed for the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, his final Derby prep likely will be on dirt in one of the major stakes back east.

20?Soaring Empire/Cam Gambolati/Empire Maker ?Flying Passage, by A.P. Indy

Featured him extensively several weeks ago and he is my big sleeper, returning with an impressive allowance score at Gulfstream, overcoming heavy traffic to pull out a victory in the final furlong. He probably is still a race behind and hasn?t been two turns, and that could hurt him for the Derby, but we definitely should be hearing more from this colt.

Sitting right behind this bunch, one big race away from vaulting into the Top 12, are Drosselmeyer, Mission Impazible, Miner's Reserve, Ice Box, Ron the Greek, Cardiff Giant, Sidney's Candy, Aikenite, Tempted to Tapit, Northern Giant, Tiz Chrome, Fly Down, First Dude, Setsuko, Game On Dude, Backtalk (who overcame a nightmare trip to win the Sportsman?s Paradise at Delta Downs), Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, Kettle River, Make Music For Me, and a bit farther down, Doubles Partner, Lentenor, Day of Destiny, Unbridled Fury, Peppi Knows, Afleet Again, and Hotep.

I?m sure there are promising horses I neglected to mention, but that?s how wide-open the Derby trail looks right now.

Despite four minor stakes last weekend, the attention was on the two one-mile maiden races and mile allowance race run in succession at Gulfstream Park Feb. 27. All three winners were impressive, but two of them are so far behind the others they would likely have to go into the Derby off only three career starts (only one of them around two turns).

After his 5 1/2-length maiden victory Saturday, if Miner?s Reserve had one more start he could actually have made the Top 12, his performance was that impressive. He turned in the fastest mile time of the five classy mile races run that day, and I loved the fact the runner-up finished 5 3/4 lengths ahead of the third horse, who was coming off a half-length defeat to the highly regarded Odysseus. This was a dominating performance over a talented bunch. His pedigree is as good as it gets and he has as much upside as any of them. But he?s really up against it with only two career starts; none at 2 and none around two turns. Two other Zito horses?Ice Box and Fly Down?also bear watching.

Although the other division, won by Game On Dude, was almost a full second slower than Miner?s Reserve, the winner won in hand in a dominating performance. The son of Awesome Again also is bred to run all day, but like Miner?s Reserve, this was only his second start, with none at a 2 and none around two turns. It?s a lot to ask of him to make the Derby, and his connections will have to decide if it?s in their colt?s best interest to push him. The Florida Derby has been mentioned as his next start, so they apparently are heading on that course.

Getting back to Radiohead?s Breeders? Cup Juvenile performance, he broke from post 11, showed good speed, but was bumped from the inside going into the turn, caroming off Lookin At Lucky and getting shuffled back to 11th. He made a big move on the turn inside William's Kitten, but fanned extremely wide, carrying William?s Kitten out with him. He was stuck on his left lead when William?s Kitten forced him back in behind horses. He kept coming, however, and although he finished seventh in the turf-like stretch run, he did out-close William?s Kitten and was beaten only four lengths.

Another horse who ran a much better race in the Breeders? Cup than it appears is Awesome Act, but his was in the Juvenile Turf. If you watch that race and see how wide he is turning for home and how far out in the middle of the track he is through the stretch as he rallies to finish fourth, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths, you definitely will want to watch him in Saturday?s Gotham Stakes (gr. III). He?s bred for the dirt and has run well on Polytrack in England, so he could be dangerous in here, despite the inner track?s penchant for speed. If he can close ground and even pick up a piece of it just a day after stepping off the plane from England, he will have to be considered a live horse April 3 for the Wood Memorial (gr. I).

The most impressive of the stakes performers over the weekend was Backtalk, who had so much trouble in a four-horse he was ripe for defeat, and looked like a beaten horse turning for home. After being mugged every step of the way by longshot Target Flash into the first turn, he dropped back to last, as 6-5 second choice Royal Express got loose on an easy lead, crawling the opening three-quarters in 1:14.10. Backtalk was unable to negotiate the tight turn and took himself extremely wide at the head of the stretch. Royal Express still led by three lengths at the eighth pole and appeared home free, but Backtalk kicked into high gear, helped by a slow final quarter, and got up in the final strides to win by a half-length. This race should set him up well for the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Fair Grounds? long stretch.

 

[Axle]

Jeremy Plonk's top 20: Week 9 of the 2010 season

1. Looking At Lucky
2. Eskendereya
3. Super Saver
4. American Lion
5. Caracortado
6. Stay Put
7. Sidney?s Candy
8. Drosselmeyer
9. Jackson Ben
10. Rule
11. Dave In Dixie
12. Odysseus
13. Lentenor
14. Nextdoorneighbor
15. Conveyance
16. Connemara
17. Fly Down
18. Discreetly Mine
19. Dublin
20. Buddy?s Saint

 

[KOSMOT]

Thursday, March 25, 2010
Setting The Scene for the First, of the Two Most Exciting Minutes In Sports

Saturday in New Orleans and Sunday near El Paso, we will be treated to perhaps the preambles to the first minute of the most exciting two minutes in sports. Because this weekend, two of the top three big front runners on most Derby lists, Discreetly Mine and Conveyance, make their final tune-ups for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands to be run May 6. The other, Sidney's Candy, runs in the Santa Anita Derby next week.

To make matters more interesting, both Conveyance and Discreetly Mine, are from two powerful stables that also include the current Derby favorites, Eskendereya and Lookin' at Lucky. Three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert trains Conveyance and Lookin' at Lucky among other Derby hopefuls, while Todd Pletcher (left) has Discreetly Mine and Eskendereya in his arsenal. According to the Paulick Report, those two have won seven of the 20 graded races for 3-year-old males this year.

If the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands were run tomorrow, the first 60 seconds would likely include the three speedsters mentioned above near the front end of the race with the two favorites tucked neatly away mid-pack. It's a great mystery as to what happens next, but after Sunday, we should have a better idea about what should happen up to that point.

Discreetly Mine runs Saturday in the $750,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) in his final prep for the Derby and appears the most likely to be leading the pack around the first turn of the 1-1/8 mile race - just as he did in winning the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Feb. 20.

If Discreetly Mine should have any early challengers, Wow Wow Wow and The Program are among the canidates.

Wow Wow Wow, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, led the grade 3 Gotham Stakes in New York through the first half-mile but faded badly to finish eighth. Although he has a trained nicely since, he is 30-1 in the Louisana Derby morning line.

Bob Baffert ships The Program in from California where he showed speed early in his career until he faded to fourth after leading the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) in December. Since then, it appears Baffert has wanted The Program to settle into more of a patient running style as show in his last race, finishing third behind Alphie's Bet in the Sham Stakes (gr. 3) at Santa Anita.

Should Discreetly Mine be allowed to run unchallenged again, that could mean trouble for Tony Dutrow trainee A Little Warm; and Pletcher's other entry, Drosslemeyer, the second and third choices on the morning line respectively and both stalkers.

In New Mexico, the undefeated Conveyance (right) looks to be in a similar boat with no other obvious front runners likely to get the early lead in the Sunland Derby if Baffert and jockey Martin Garcia want it for the 9-5 favorite.

Only two other runners in the Sunland Derby have gate-to-wire victories to their credit, and both were against maidens. Endorsement did so against maidens last time out at Oaklawn Park, and Tempted to Tapit the same at Aqueduct in the mud in January.

Several things stand out about Tempted to Tapit however, making him the 3-1 morning line second choice. He achieved a big 100 Beyer Speed Figure in that one-mile maiden race, then came back to run second to Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star. The son of Tapit breaks from the eleven hole Sunday however, possibly compromising his ability to get to the front.

Breaking from the six hole just inside Conveyance in the seven, Nacho Friend will have every opportunity to pressure whomever finds themselves in front. Third behind Awesome Act and Yawanna Twist in the Gotham, Nacho friend was forced to race four-wide after racing near the front in the early stages of that race. He has the talent to pressure and honest pace from Conveyance, but I'm sure trainer Kelly Breen would like to have some help from Tempted to Tapit or perhaps Classical Slew, 3rd in the San Vincente behind Sidney's Candy.

So I look for both Discreetly Mine and Conveyance to have big races this weekend, simply because both seem to have an pace advantage over their foes. Baffert is certainly not afraid to take a front runner to Kentucky having saddled wire-to-wire Derby winner War Emblem in 2002 and Pletcher, I'm sure, will take his first Derby win nearly any way he can get it. So I don't look for the running styles of either runner to change.

What I am looking for though, are more clues to that second minute mystery in Kentucky in May.

Posted by Brock Sheridan at 8:39 AM

 

[Striker13]

Schoolyard Dreams should at least be considered a Top 20 contender in the Derby trail. I think this one is going to repeat what Musket Man did for his owners last year and take the Illinois Derby unless American Lion pulls an I Want Revenge on the Hawthorne dirt, and then be competitive in the Derby. Ryan says that he is better and ahead of where Musket Man was last year and that he came out of the TB Derby in perfect order for what that is worth. We shall see.

 

[KOSMOT]

Monday, March 29, 2010
How About the Belmont for Endorsement?

It was supposed to be an easy race for Conveyance, he was supposed to win by open lengths in his final prep, but as the sun began to set in Texas, the spotlight shifted to the rising star Endorsement. It took three trys for the classicly bred colt to break his maiden, but as the distance increased so did his talent. He finally got the nod in the eighth race at Oaklawn Park, and from there would meet the unbeaten Conveyace in the Sunland Derby.

As usual, Conveyance bounce right out to take the lead, and looked relitively unpressured as he went through splits of 23.71, 48.04. However, Endorsement had settled in right behind the Southwest winner, and was biding his time waiting to pounce. As they rounded the far turn it was evident that Endorsement was going to get the better of Conveyance, who was visibly being pushed, as Endorsement move up with minimal urging.

Down the stretch the two came, with Endorsement in the lead. Conveyance fought back gamely, but his opponent was just too much and began to pull away inside the eight pole to register a two and a half length victory, in stakes record time. It was impressive win, for such a lightly raced colt.

Endorsement is a royally bred colt, who's breeding, I personally am in love with. Distorted Humor, his sire, would normally put me off, but Distorted Humor has proven to be fairly versitle as a sire, siring Derby/Preakness winner Funny Cide and Dwyer/Haskell winner Any Given Saturday. Also, since, Distorted Humor's best distance was sprinting, he gives some good speed influence. On the bottom half of the pedigree we have, of course AP Indy, one of the best distance influences in the breed. With a sire that has proven to sire a variety of horses and AP Indy as a distance influence on the bottom, I think this colt will a very formidable challenger to any three year old at the Classic distances.

His ability to get distances is also displayed in his PP's. In his four starts it would seem the longer they stretched this colt out the better he ran. Plus, in the 9 furlong Sunland Derby, he showed absolutely no signs of slowing down, powering past the finish, with plenty left in the tank.

With all this said, however, I would not like to see this talented fire ball run in the Kentucky Derby. In my opinion, it would be too much too soon, even for one with his kind of potential. I would much preffer to see his owners wait until the Belmont, and let him run in perhaps the Peter Pan as a prep. The Belmont would allow him the oppurtuity to show what he is made of, without pushing him too soon, while the Derby would thrust him into a whole different type of race that he has never seen before, and will never likely see again. A start in the Derby could wipe him out, like it has done to many other talented colts who were not yet ready.

So, all in all, I really like Endorsement, and would caution anybody to keep an eye on him throughout the year. He has some real promise, and I'm sure, if he is managed correctly, will be making noise latter this summer.
Posted by LDP at Monday, March 29, 2010

 

[KOSMOT]

Here's a link to all the 2010 prep races.
http://http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2010/2010_triple_crown_trail.htm

 

[Axle]

Here's a link to all the 2010 prep races.
http://http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2010/2010_triple_crown_trail.htm

Hey Bud, good deal....like this.... :SIB

 

[KOSMOT]

Using Exercise Physiology to Handicap Races

Using Exercise Physiology to Handicap Races

Using Exercise Physiology to Handicap Races
04 Apr 2010 3:30 PM

By Bill Pressey, Horse Training Science

Drosselmeyer - we all saw his performance in the Louisiana Derby; terrible trip and an impressive third place finish. But, how many of us noticed the aggressive warm up given to him by Kent Desormeaux? Breaking away from the pony after the post parade, Desormeaux cranked him up to a quick pace for about a quarter mile down the straightaway. When asked why, he replied: "I wanted him on his toes."

Contrary to popular belief, such a relatively fast paced warmup will not cause a well-conditioned horse to tire prematurely. As a matter of fact, due to the uniqueness of the equine spleen - a warm up away from the pony has a multitude of benefits that can add up to a winning edge.

Unlike other athletes, the horse stores a large percentage of red blood cells in his spleen. When that gate opens and the race is on - the spleen contracts and shoots up to 30% more blood into the body. Many vets believe this contributes to bleeding as the arteries are not yet dilated enough to handle the increased blood viscosity.

So in failing to contract this spleen during the warmup (away from the pony), you are dooming your athlete to dealing with this increased blood thickness during the first quarter mile of the race, as his arteries are not yet dilated to counteract the increased blood pressures. Lasix will surely help matters, but why not take advantage of the post parade warmup too?

Additionally, red blood cells sequestered in the spleen for long periods of time can become oddly shaped and less able to carry oxygen to working muscles. The practice of blowing a horse out with a quick 3/8 breeze 4 days before the races addresses this problem - but how many trainers put this into practice on a consistent basis?

So observe the pre race warmup if possible, as an aggressive one may not make all the difference in the world, but it surely can help buy you the few extra lengths needed to overcome other obstacles. I've spent many a day after the Derby at Churchill watching Calvin Borel do this consistently.

I once consulted on a 4 year old colt who was 0-9 lifetime, a private purchase here in Louisville. His first work was a half mile at Churchill for his new trainer, and it was so slow it ranked 52nd out of 53 that morning. But, I had my heart rate/GPS monitor on him and his heart rate recovered to 94bpm within 90 seconds of that breeze - so we knew he had much more in the tank. He was then entered him into a MSW at Mountaineer and was a wire to wire winner paying $22.00. Any handicapper relying on speed of works would have been scared away - because a stopwatch only measures the workload and completely misses the horse's physiological response, which is often times the missing piece of the puzzle.

Now with regards to everyone's favorite subject these days: synthetic vs. dirt surfaces. Physiologically, horses training on dirt are subject to as much as 50% more stress than those training on synthetics. Not all stress is bad, as the horse is a living organism that can adapt to stress and become stronger. So a 6 furlong work on the polytrack at Keeneland requires as much fitness as a 4 furlong breeze at Churchill. Dirt will make you fitter, but also increase the risk of injury - truly a double edged sword. Pay attention to the work tabs of the horses and don't count multiple synthetic works of 4 furlongs or less as being enough to develop maximal conditioning.

I think that Mine That Bird may have stumbled upon the ideal scenario last year. As a 2 year old with still growing bones, he spent his time on the soft stuff up at Woodbine. He then shipped to Sunland Park and prepped extensively on the dirt for several months before his unveiling during the Derby. That seemed to work out very well for him and his connections...

 

[KOSMOT]

Will You Back the Derby Favorite?

If Eskendereya enters the 2010 Kentucky Derby starting gate, he will undoubtedly be the top choice by bettors. He assured this with his recent romp in the Wood Memorial. An enviable position, to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, right? Maybe, but maybe not. Let?s take a look at the performance of the favorites in the last 30 years:

Year Favorite Odds Finish
2009 Friesan Fire 3.80-1 18th
2008 Big Brown 2.40-1 1st
2007 Street Sense 4.90-1 1st
2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 5.50-1 7th
2005 Bellamy Road 2.60-1 7th
2004 Smarty Jones 4.10-1 1st
2003 Empire Maker 2.50-1 2nd
2002 Harlan's Holiday 6.00-1 7th
2001 Point Given 1.80-1 5th
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2.30-1 1st
1999 General Challenge (entry) 4.80-1 11th
1998 Indian Charlie 2.70-1 3rd
1997 Captain Bodgit 3.10-1 2nd
1996 Unbridled's Song 3.50-1 5th
1995 Timber Country (entry) 3.40-1 3rd
1994 Holy Bull 2.20-1 12th
1993 Prairie Bayou 4.40-1 2nd
1992 Arazi .90-1 8th
1991 Hansel 2.50-1 10th
1990 Mister Frisky 1.90-1 8th
1989 Easy Goer (entry) .80-1 2nd
1988 Private Terms 3.40-1 9th
1987 Demons Begone 2.20-1 DNF
1986 Snow Chief 2.10-1 11th
1985 Chief's Crown 1.20-1 3rd
1984 Althea (entry) 2.80-1 19th
1983 Marfa (entry) 2.40-1 5th
1982 Air Forbes Won 2.70-1 7th
1981 Proud Appeal (entry) 2.30-1 18th
1980 Rockhill Native 2.10-1 5th

A closer look at these results reveal that a total of four favorites have won the Kentucky Derby in the past three decades, a winning percentage of only 13.3%.

The average finish for the favorite in this time period is a very surprising 7th place. As you can tell, being the favorite means very little when the race begins.

Looking at the winners over these thirty years, we see 13 horses who had double digit odds, and six of them had odds of over 20-1.

What does this all mean for this year's favorite, Eskendereya? Nothing, he will not be aware of his own odds. But if you think that it is a foregone conclusion that we will see Eskendereya in the winner's circle, history has taught us that you may be in for a rude awakening.

Posted by Brian Zipse at 2:36 PM

 

[KOSMOT]

A million dollars is up for grabs in the Arkansas Derby, which drew a field of nine

Super Saver (C. Borel) 9-5,
Dublin (T. Thompson) 7-2,
Noble's Promise (R. Albarado) 2-1,
Northern Giant (V. Espinoza) 8-1,
Uh Oh Bango (S. Bridgmohan) 15-1,
New Madrid (A. Castellano) 20-1,
Berberis (A. Gryder) 30-1,
Line of David (J. Court) 15-1
Pulsion (C. Nakatani) 15-1

Noble's Promise defeats Aikenite in the 2009 Breeders Futurity Stakes

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The $750K Blue Grass also drew a field of nine

Odysseus (R. Maragh) 7-2,
First Dude (R. Dominguez) 8-1,
Stately Victor (A. Garcia) 30-1,
Make Music for Me (M. Smith) 6-1,
Codoy (J. Velazquez) 30-1,
Pleasant Prince (J. Leparoux) 3-1,
Paddy O'Prado (K. Desormeaux) 10-1,
Aikenite (G. Gomez) 4-1
Interactif (R. Bejarano) 4-1.

Odysseus wins the 2010 Tampa Bay Derby

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[KOSMOT]

Friday, April 9, 2010
Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass are Open Affairs

After watching Eskendereya's magnificent Wood Memorial (gr. 1) performance last week, one may wonder about the significance of this weekend's two grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands prep races. Of the 18 3-year-olds entered in the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, only Uh Oh Bango has a race with a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure. And that was a 102 Beyer last September in the $53,000 Prairie Meadows Juvenile.

Eskendereya has done so in last two races with a 106 Beyer in the Wood and a 102 in the Fountain of Youth. Not since Point Given in 2001 has a 3-year-old come into the Kentucky Derby looking so dominant. In fact, Point Given is the only horse during the last decade to go to the post with less than 2-1 odds.

Point Given finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Ironically, that is the average finish of the last ten Kentucky Derby favorites. Only Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown the following year have won the Run for the Roses as the most popular betting choice.

The Arkansas Derby has produced two Derby winners during that time and seems to have the stronger cast on Saturday.

Todd Pletcher continues to unleash his 2010 armament on Derby contenders by bringing Super Saver to Arkansas and has been tabbed the 9-5 morning line favorite. Owned by WinStar Farm, Super Saver was third behind Odysseus and Schoolyard dreams as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby March 13 in his first start of the year.

But Noble's Promise may wind up as the fan's betting choice in Arkansas as well as the winner of the race if he can continue to improve off of his only start of the year. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, Nobel's Promise just missed hanging on against the highly regarded Lookin' at Lucky in the grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, also March 13. Although Lookin' at Lucky was rattled with trouble that day, Noble's Promise was forced three-wide on the turn in the Rebel and still produced a field best 98 Beyer.

Four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas still has Dublin on the Derby trail after his third place finish in the Rebel. He also was plagued by bad luck as he was forced four and five wide on both turns and appeared to bump Lookin at Lucky down the backstretch as well. Oaklawn Park veteran Terry Thompson gets the return mount on the son of Afleet Alex and may be looking for a slow and relaxing early trip Saturday.

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In Lexington, Kentucky Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince has been installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite, just ahead of Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus at 7-2. Just behind them are the Pletcher duo of Aikenite and Interactif at 4-1.

Again, we have a wide open race in which I'm most interested to see Odysseus run again. His victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, while not overly impressive on paper, was about as much as one would want to see in terms of determination and late acceleration.

After appearing as if finished coming out of the far turn (even track announcer Richard Gunter called Odysseus as done for the day), jockey Rajiv Maragh suddenly found more inside the final eighth of a mile. By that time, they were behind a wall of horses and as if suddenly being recharged, began to run again and somehow got for the win. That made it 3 consecutive for the Tom Albertrani trainee and with any improvement in maturity, should be the one to beat at Keeneland.

Posted by Brock Sheridan

 

[Axle]

Eskendereya's race in the Wood looked great...yeah, I know, it was a small field, but damn when they came around the turn and turned on the jets, no one was even in the picutre.....finally might be Pletcher's Derby......

Will probably be the favorite, and deservingling so, but we all know how good the favorites do in the derby....LOL.......

:SIB

 

[gjn23]

Eskendereya's race in the Wood looked great...yeah, I know, it was a small field, but damn when they came around the turn and turned on the jets, no one was even in the picutre.....finally might be Pletcher's Derby......

Will probably be the favorite, and deservingling so, but we all know how good the favorites do in the derby....LOL.......

:SIB

4 of the last 10 winners have been favs......and the monsters in that particular year all won (except for point given in 2001)

the other 5 years were some bad years and ? favs (fresian fire?????)

this horse is the monster this year BUT pletcher is a jinx and baffert looks to have a very good horse in lookin at lucky......think it's between those two (and think they are street sense vs curlin)

 

[airportis]

Eskendereya will win the derby without much of a challenge.

Then go on to win the Preakness and Belmont to capture the Triple Crown. :SIB

 

[Axle]

Bold Statement..... :SIB

 

[gjn23]

just read that battaglia will likely make Eskendereya 2-1 on the ml with lucky at 4-1

if you like Eskendereya and can find futures at 3-1 or better i'd advise hammering away now.