Road To The Triple Crown Talk

[airportis]

Eskendereya was 5/1 before the Wood romping.

Wouldve loved to get in on that.

If he is 2/1 on the ML I think hell probably get bet down to odds on by the time the race goes off.

 

[KOSMOT]

Monday, April 12, 2010
KENTUCKY DERBY NOTEBOOK: CONTENDER PROFILE ? ICE BOX

The Florida Derby winner is long on talent and improving; will the lack of a quality juvenile foundation prevent a winning performance?

ICE BOX ran the most compelling internal fractions of the Kentucky Derby prep season en route to his 20-1 Florida Derby upset on March 20.

What is the likelihood he can repeat that effort on May 1 at Churchill Downs? Considering multiple Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito is calling the shots, very good!

In the Florida Derby, multiple G.3 winner RULE was the 9-5 favorite. The speedy colt was trying to stretch his brilliant speed out to 9 furlongs. Unbeknownst to nearly everyone not named Corey Nakatani and Patrick Biancone, newly-blinkered PULSION rocketed to the lead through an opening ? in :23.21. RULE would press him just a head back through a nearly identical second ? mile in :23.25, virtually eliminating the winning chances of ordinary, stretch-running also-rans.

Lurking in last place was ICE BOX, open lengths from next-to-last LENTENOR. Visually, I was impressed that RULE hung on gamely for third, considering ICE BOX and nose loser PLEASANT PRINCE plodding pace beneficiaries.

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What amazed me from chart dissection is that despite staying in last place, ICE BOX ran his second ? in :22.75 recording the fastest internal fraction of any horse in the race! Indicating he?s no ordinary, one-run closer ICE BOX slowed down faster in each successive fraction than any other horse in the race. His third ? was a remarkable :24.00, a fourth ? in a :24.33 show of stamina, both fractions part of an impressive final 5 furlongs in 1:00.93. Contrast those raw pace figures with his Fountain of Youth splits, in which he recorded the fastest internal ? mile split 47.29). His second ? was run in :23.50, third ? in :23.79, fourth ? in :24.93 with a final 5 furlongs in 1:02.75. Clearly, this March foal is improving leaps and bounds now that he?s chronologically turned three years old.

ICE BOX doesn?t look all that different this year than SUMMER BIRD, the 2009 champion three-year-old male, did last year coming into the Kentucky Derby. SUMMER BIRD?s final prep, a third to PAPA CLEM and OLD FASHIONED in the then-G.2 Arkansas Derby, was eerily similar to the subject colt?s Florida Derby win:

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S.Bird Ark. Derby ?09 :25.65 :22.64 :24.16 :25.00 :11.76 1:00.92
Ice Box Fl. Derby ?10 :25.51 :22.75 :24.00 :24.33 :12.60 1:00.93

The fractions represent 1st 1/4, 2nd 1/4, 3rd 1/4, 4th 1/4, final 1/8, final 5f.

In the Kentucky Derby, ICE BOX will get ample pace to chase. Currently AMERICAN LION, CONVEYANCE, DISCREETLY MINE, LINE OF DAVID, RULE, SIDNEY?S CANDY, and SUPER SAVER all are top 20 earners who?ve led virtually gate-to-wire in at least one prep at either age two or three. The already crowded front end in the Derby can grow more contentious and speedy if Blue Grass runner-up and #19 earner PADDY O?PRADO makes the race. The Dale Romans trainee was part of the fastest fractions when compared with other Blue Grass renewals after Keeneland switched to Polytrack. Likely Derby favorite ESKENDEREYA, owner of the two top Beyer speed figures of 2010 sophomores, never races far from the leader which will add to the intensity in the leading group and should enhance the late run of ICE BOX.

By the productive A.P. INDY stallion PULPIT, ICE BOX has stamina-rich blood from his TABASCO CAT broodmare SPICE ISLAND. In appearance, his chestnut coat would be inherited from damsire TABASCO CAT, winner of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1994. SPICE ISLAND captured turf graded stakes on the grass at 1 3/8 miles and 1 ? miles. Third dam BELLE DE JOUR, by 1987 Kentucky Derby and Preakness S. winner ALYSHEBA, produced 1985 Kentucky Derby winner SPEND A BUCK. Bottom line, ICE BOX should adore every bit of the 1 ? mile Derby distance. Jockey Jose Lezcano can wait until the third ? mile to pick off the inevitable also-rans. The momentum ICE BOX produces through the middle of the Derby will put the colt into a winning position at the mile mark. The final ? mile always goes to the horse with the best combination of racing luck and stamina.

Without a high-class juvenile campaign, the same lack of experience that may have limited SUMMER BIRD from a better finish in last year?s Derby, the question is whether ICE BOX has the bottom and class at this stage of development to reproduce his Florida Derby win? The six weeks between races could be the mini-freshening that SUMMER BIRD wasn?t afforded (he had only three weeks from final prep to Derby), allowing ICE BOX to recover from the taxing race at Gulfstream Park.

Last year?s version of ICE BOX was SUMMER BIRD. After a 6th place Derby finish, the ?other Bird? became a champion. Whether ICE BOX can match or exceed that colt?s accomplishments remains to be seen. One thing is certain, Nick Zito would not trade places with any other trainer because knows what he has in ICE BOX...a cool Kentucky Derby contender!

Posted by Amateurcapper at 11:50 PM

 

[KOSMOT]

Monday, April 12, 2010
THE TURF TEN
by Nick Hahn

Despite being on a synthetic surface, the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes makes a major impact in this week's Turf Ten. The next legitimate prep for Colonial's "Twin Turf", the Colonial Turf Cup and Virginia Derby, is the Grand Prairie Turf Challenge at Lone Star Park on April 24th. The next major three year old turf prep is the American Turf at Churchill Downs on April 30th.

1) NORDIC TRUCE - As a nominee to the American Turf at Churchill Downs, our undefeated turf loyalist shown right winning the Transylvania (photo Anne Eberhardt-Bloodhorse) will make his 4th start on Kentucky Derby weekend. By the unlikely turf sire Yes It's True, Nordic Truce is trained by Christophe Clement.

2) DEAN'S KITTEN - This is where things get interesting. Dean's Kitten is the Palm Beach runner up on the turf yet the Lane's End winner on the synthetic. He is trained by Dale Romans and owned by Ken and Sara Ramsey, the same connections of his sire-2004 Virginia Derby winner Kitten's Joy. He's likely a Derby starter and will have to take a step backwards on the dirt before taking two steps forward on the turf.

3) PADDY O'PRADO - For the moment, another Romans colt has enough graded stakes earnings (19th) to reserve a stall in the Derby starting gate. His runner up performance in the Bluegrass makes him a hot pony despite being the maiden winner of the Palm Beach. An American Turf nominee he is one of many hedge horses between the turf and dirt.

4) INTERACTIF - A competitor in every race he has run but hasn't won since October 2009. His last two starts were on the synthetic but trainer Todd Pletcher has plenty of other Derby interests. He may use his option for grass with this American Turf nominee (photo below - Coglianese Photos).

5) MAKE MUSIC FOR ME - He has run well against some of the best graded stakes competition. His only win was in the ungraded Pasadena at Santa Anita in his only turf start. Probably the most likely of the Derby eligible colts race on Friday Derby weekend instead of Saturday.

6) STRIKE THE TIGER - Colonial's 2009 Chenery winner answered a lot of questions and gained a lot of respect in the two turn outing in the Transylvania. Remember this colt won on the European turf in his two year old year like last year's Virginia Derby winner, Battle of Hastings. Trained by Wesley Ward.

7) DREAM NETTIE - With all the turf infusion into the Triple Crown, you still have to give credit to those winning on the turf like this winner of the La Puente at Santa Anita on Saturday.

8) WORKING FOR HOPS - Michael Stidham's gelding is the "under the radar horse" nominated to the American Turf. His 5-length win on the Fairgrounds turf in the Grindstone has gone largely unnoticed. Can't wait to see what he might do against tougher competition.

9) LINE OF DAVID - Before his surprising Arkansas Derby win, he was on my radar as a winner of his last two on the turf. Should he come off the Triple Crown trail after his Derby start, his frontrunning style will need work to suit Colonial's races.

10) STATELY VICTOR - Meets the criteria to make the list by his non-winning starts on the turf but gained creditability with his Bluegrass win. This son of Ghostzapper is the least likeliest to return to the turf anytime soon. May be bit of a "now" colt.
Posted by GP at 9:38 PM

 

[KOSMOT]

Stately Victor posts shocking victory in the Bluegrass Stakes April 12, 2010 by admin

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I must admit that I looked at 40-1 shot Stately Victor in the Bluegrass Stakes for a millisecond when handicapping the race. After that millisecond passed I laughed and thought ?why is he in this race?? and moved on like everyone else did.

My top pick was narrowly Interactif over Paddy O? Prado and they were the only two horses I had on the last leg of my Pick 4. Half way through the stretch I thought I was well on my way to cashing a nice ticket. That was until Stately Victor came with a furious late run to draw away from Paddy O? Prado. Stately Victor, trained by Michael Maker, is the longest shot to ever win the Bluegrass Stakes.

I hate to sound bitter, but I feel that he has no chance in the Kentucky Derby. None whatsoever. I?ll say the same for stablemate Deans Kitten who won the Grade 2 Lanes End Stakes at Turfway Park. Both horses have showed their best form on turf or synthetic. Despite that, after watching Mine That Bird win last year I won?t be shocked if they prove me wrong. Maker has proved himself time again as a top trainer and now must be in the conversation when talking about who is the best trainer in the country.

Stately Victor wasn?t the only upset on Saturday. The John Sadler trained Line of David won Arkansas Derby at odds of 17-1 in wire to wire fashion under jockey Jon Court. The son of Lion Heart recorded his third victory in a row and is undefeated since the addition of blinkers. Super Saver and Dublin finished second and third, respectively. The emergence of Line of David means that Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney?s Candy may have company on the front end.

Who do you like in the Kentucky Derby? What did you think of this weekends races? Leave a comment and share.

 

[KOSMOT]

Kentucky Derby Graded Stakes Earnings List

April 12, 2010 by admin

KENTUCKY DERBY 136 GRADED EARNINGS LIST

Here?s the Kentucky Derby 136 Graded Stakes Earnings Top 40 through April 10, which is based on known intentions or a consideration to run in the Kentucky Derby (with last week?s ranking on the Graded Stakes Earnings List):

1. (1.) Lookin At Lucky ($1,480,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (trained by Bob Baffert)

2. (2.) Noble?s Promise ($738,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Ken McPeek)

3. (3.) Rule ($645,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

4. (4.) Sidney?s Candy ($630,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (John Sadler)

5. (5.) Eskendereya ($600,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

5. (New)Line of David ($600,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (John Sadler)

7. (6.) Mission Impazible ($473,434) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

8. (7.) Ice Box ($457,500) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Nick Zito)

9. (New) Stately Victor ($451,112) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Mike Maker)

10. (8.) Endorsement ($400,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Shannon Ritter)

11. (9.) Conveyance ($386,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Bob Baffert)

12. (10.)American Lion ($378,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Eoin Harty)

13. (14.)Dublin ($373,208) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (D. Wayne Lukas)

14. (25.)Super Saver ($363,832) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

15. (11.)Discreetly Mine ($340,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)

16. (12.)Dean?s Kitten ($326,475) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Mike Maker)

17. (15.) Interactif ($307,950) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Todd Pletcher)?

18. (13.)Awesome Act ($285,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Jeremy Noseda)

19. (34.)Paddy O?Prado ($250,950) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Dale Romans)

20. (16.) Homeboykris ($250,500) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Rick Dutrow Jr.)

21. (21.) Uh Oh Bango ($237,952) ? Unknown (Kory Owens)

22. (17.)Jackson Bend ($230,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Nick Zito)

23. (18.) Backtalk ($225,916) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Tom Amoss)

24. (19.)Aikenite ($221,750) ? Unknown (Todd Pletcher)

25. (20.)Make Music for Me ($218,750) ? Unknown (Alexis Barba)

26. (t-22.)Odysseus ($183,750) ? Unknown (Tom Albertrani)

27. (t-22.)A Little Warm ($180,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Tony Dutrow)

27. (t-22.)Setsuko ($180,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby (Richard Mandella)

29. (26.)Pleasant Prince ($166,250) ? Unknown (Wesley Ward)

30. (27.)Tempted to Tapit ($156,000) ? Unknown (Steve Klesaris)

31. (28.)Caracortado ($153,000) ? May 1 Kentucky Derby or May 15 Preakness (Mike Machowsky)

32. (29.)Yawanna Twist ($147,000) ? Unknown (Rick Dutrow Jr.)

33. (30.)Connemara ($138,500) ? April 17 Coolmore Lexington (Todd Pletcher)

34. (31.)Schoolyard Dreams ($137,500) ? Unknown (Derek Ryan)

35. (32.)Northern Giant ($132,000) ? Unknown (D. Wayne Lukas)

36. (33.)Eightyfiveinafifty ($120,000) ? April 24 The Cliff?s Edge Derby Trial (Gary Contessa)

37. (New)First Dude ($97,500) ? Unknown (Dale Romans)

38. (35.)Alphie?s Bet ($90,000) ? Unknown (Alexis Barba)

39. (36.)Drosselmeyer ($87,000) ? April 17 Coolmore Lexington or May 15 Preakness (Bill Mott)

40. (37.)Pulsion ($85,000) ? Unknown (Patrick Biancone)

 

[KOSMOT]

Apr 15, 2010
Standings vs Graded Earnings

The rules governing who gets in to the 20 gates for the Derby work. BUT, they are not optimal. There are years when horse #24, #26 is more deserving than horse #18. Yes, it's a small argument, but at some point it will bite us all on the ass as a horse left out will win the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell Triple Crown and then maybe something will be done. The thing is, back in the day the value of the purse matched the value of the Grade, but w/ races like the Gr III Delta Jackpot, and the large purses they put up for 2yo races in the Summer horses are having their ticket punched to the Derby earlier and earlier, and that is a disservice to fans who like the build up, who like the road to the roses. Again, the industry does itself a disservice by allowing tracks to buy a horse of "theirs" entry in the Derby. Not a good situation.


If something like the TBA standings were in place horses like Pleasant Prince, Caracortado, Jackson Bend, Northern Giant, Pulsion, First Dude, Setsuko, & A Little Warm would be in at the expense of Mission Impazible, Endorsement, Conveyance, American Lion, Discreetly Mine, Dean's Kitten, Awesome Act, & Homeboy Kris.

Now that's not perfect either, but that's more because of the fact that there aren't standings in place, otherwise trainers would change their way of placing horses. However, what I think would be ideal would be top 2 in a Gr I, winners in Gr II next, then Gr III's plus the BC Juvenile Winner. If you went w/ that your field would be:

1 ESKENDEREYA (Gr 1, 1st)
2 JACKSON BEND (Gr 1, 2nd)
3 SIDNEY'S CANDY (Gr 1, 1st)
4 SETSUKO (Gr 1, 2nd)
5 STATELY VICTOR(Gr 1, 1st)
6 PADDY O'PRADO(Gr 1, 2nd)
7 LINE OF DAVID(Gr 1, 1st)
8 SUPER SAVER(Gr 1, 2nd)
9 ICE BOX (Gr 1, 1st)
10 PLEASANT PRINCE (Gr 1, 2nd)
11 D' FUNNYBONE (Gr 2, 1st)
12 MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Gr 2, 1st)
13 DEAN'S KITTEN (Gr 2, 1st)
14 LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Gr 2, 1st)
15 DISCREETLY MINE (Gr 2, 1st)
16 CARACORTADO (Gr 2, 1st)
17 Coolmore Lexington Winner

Gr III Winners get in on Graded Stakes Earnings
(3 current money standings) RULE (Gr 3)
(10) ENDORSEMENT (Gr 3)
(11) CONVEYANCE (Gr 3)

The below horses would be on the outside looking in......(red highlights currently in real Derby, wouldn't be included this way)
(12) AMERICAN LION (Gr 3)
(18) AWESOME ACT (Gr 3)
(26) ODYSSEUS (Gr 3)
(33) CONNEMARA (Gr 3)
(36) EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (Gr 3)
(38) ALPHIE'S BET (Gr 3)
Noble's Promise doesn't qualify
Dublin doesn't qualify


You want to only include 3 yo races at 8 furlongs or more, ok D'Funnybone out American Lion in.

And that's a perfect field if you ask me.

Posted at 11:23 AM by Handride

 

[KOSMOT]

It's Post Time By Jon White
THE BIG THREE

The way I look at it, the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner probably will be one of the Big Three -- Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky or Sidney?s Candy.

I am willing to take my chances with the Big Three vs. the rest of the Kentucky Derby field.

I concur with Churchill Downs morning line maker Mike Battaglia in how he currently sizes up the Derby wagering picture. Battaglia told Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal that he plans to make Eskendereya the morning-line favorite, probably at 2-1 or 5-2. That?s exactly what I would do, too.

?That?s a very short price, a heavy favorite [in a race with 20 separate betting interests],? Battaglia said. ?I don?t see any way Eskendereya won?t be the favorite.?

Battaglia went on to say that he intends to make Lookin At Lucky the second choice on his morning line, probably at 4-1, with Sidney?s Candy the third choice at 8-1 or 10-1.

?You?d have to go double digits with everything else,? Battaglia said.

Point Given, at 9-5, was the biggest post-time favorite since Churchill Downs went to 20 separate betting interests in 2001, eliminating owner couplings and the mutuel field.

While Eskendereya no doubt will be the favorite, the absolute lowest he probably would be is somewhere from 6-5 to 9-5. But 2-1 or higher is much more likely.

It?s extremely doubtful that Eskendereya would be even money or less. Keep in mind that only two of the last 25 Derby favorites have been less than even money -- the coupling of Easy Goer and Awe Inspiring (4-5 in 1989) and Azeri (4-5 in 1992).

Only five of the last 25 Derby favorites have gone off at less than 2-1 -- Chief?s Crown (6-5 in 1985), the coupling of Easy Goer and Awe Inspiring (4-5 in 1989), Mister Frisky (9-5 in 1990), Arazi (4-5 in 1992) and Point Given (9-5 in 2001). All five lost.

The last Derby favorite to win at less than 2-1 was Spectacular Bid at 3-5 in 1979.

Big Brown, unlike Eskendereya, was undefeated going into the Kentucky Derby. However, some bettors might have shied away from Big Brown -- especially at the price -- because he had to start from post 20.

This year some actually have come to the conclusion that it?s not a Big Three (like me) or even a Big Two, but rather a Big One, Eskendereya. My HRTV colleague Jeff Siegel wrote last week that he thinks Eskendereya might sweep the Triple Crown.

?Eskendereya?s Wood Memorial 109 Beyer figure -- powerful that it is -- doesn?t really do him justice,? Siegel wrote at his HRTV.com blog. ?The Giant?s Causeway colt never had to extend himself. I know you?ve heard this before -- like a dozen times during the past two decades -- but this might be the year we finally have a Triple Crown winner for the first time since Affirmed in 1978.?

I understand where Siegel is coming from when he says that. His reasoning is similar to mine last year when I wrote that Pioneerof the Nile might sweep the Triple Crown.

My thinking with Pioneerof the Nile was, if he did win the Kentucky Derby, there would be a pretty good chance he would come right back and also win the Preakness Stakes. We?ve seen the Derby/Preakness double accomplished often in recent years. One of the main reasons for that is not many of the Derby horses run back just two weeks later in Baltimore as once was the case.

It?s the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes that usually has thwarted a horse?s bid for Triple Crown glory since Affirmed. The distance just proves too long. But I felt that if Pioneerof the Nile won the Derby and Preakness, the Belmont might suit him the best based on his pedigree. His sire, Empire Maker, won the Belmont.

Pioneerof the Nile was good enough to defeat 17 rivals in the Kentucky Derby. But he had settle for second when unable to outrun 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird.

?Some of the previous 3-year-olds who were recently on the verge of Triple Crown immortality -- War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and Big Brown come to mind -- were noted speed horses who would always be considered suspect at 12 furlongs,? Siegel wrote. ?So no matter how dominant they may have appeared in both the Derby and Preakness, there was always a fear that the Triple Crown?s third jewel, the Belmont Stakes, would be beyond their scope. That certainly was the case with Smarty Jones; the others mentioned had other issues as well.

?But [trainer Todd] Pletcher will have so such worries with Eskendereya should he get to that point. Granted, the Kentucky Derby is hardly a slam dunk, and the always volatile Maryland spring weather can make the Preakness a bit treacherous. But if Eskendereya negotiates both minefields successfully, what, other than some mysterious Triple Crown jinx, will deprive him of a win in the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown??

Following Eskendereya?s 8 1/2-length victory in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and 9 3/4-length romp in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, I felt he deserved to move to the top of my weekly Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. He is four for four on the dirt.

It?s certainly not hard to picture Eskendereya winning the Kentucky Derby. Heck, he might even win by a big margin again. Maybe he?s just that superior to everybody else.

But I also can see either Lookin At Lucky or Sidney?s Candy winning the roses. While I think Eskendereya has earned his way to the top of my weekly Kentucky Derby list, it does not necessarily mean he will be my pick to win the race. At this point, each one of the Big Three is a possibility to be my Derby pick.

Here is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10 list:

1. Eskendereya
2. Lookin At Lucky
3. Sidney?s Candy
4. Awesome Act
5. Rule
6. Ice Box
7. Dean?s Kitten
8. Line of David
9. Super Saver
10. Dublin

No horse is going into the Kentucky Derby more battle tested than Lookin At Lucky, who had an absolutely brutal trip and finished third in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby following troubled trips in the Grade II Rebel Stakes (which he won) and Grade I Breeders? Cup Juvenile (which he lost in a photo finish).

My main concern with Lookin At Lucky is his lack of a Beyer Speed Figure higher than 98. Perhaps he simply is not fast enough to win the roses. But even with that concern, I certainly would not be surprised to see Lookin At Lucky posing for pictures with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert after the big race on the first Saturday in May, especially since the Smart Strike colt is overdue for some good racing luck.

As for Sidney?s Candy, as I wrote last week, the belief here he is a very serious colt. He showed he has the speed to win a race like the Grade II San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs by 4 1/4 lengths on Feb. 15 and the class and stamina to win a race like the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles by 4 1/2 lengths on April 3.

The Blood-Horse?s Steve Haskin, one of the sport?s keenest observers, wrote of Sidney?s Candy:

?What do you think of a horse who in his last three starts ran the quarter before the stretch call in :22 3/5, :23 1/5 and :23 1/5 and still closed his final eighths in :12 1/5 and :12 3/5 and final sixteenth in :06 flat? His overall come-home times of :35 2/5 and :35 4/5 (final three eighths) and :28 3/5 (final three-sixteenth) are nothing short of spectacular. Sounds pretty impressive for a closer, right? Well, then, what if that horse was a front-runner? It is those stats that make Sidney?s Candy so dangerous.

?Granted, he set very slow fractions in his last two races, but does this imply that maybe Sidney?s Candy doesn?t need the lead and can come home that fast laying off the pace? Of course, we have no way of knowing, but with Conveyance and his own stablemate, Line of David, likely to assure a rapid pace in the Derby, you can bet trainer John Sadler would like to see Sidney?s Candy take back. If he can and still come home that quickly, perhaps we are dealing with a pretty special colt.?

Tim Osterman of Today?s Racing Digest wrote of Sidney?s Candy:

?Some experts are ?knocking? Sidney?s Candy because of his easy trips in a trio of stakes scores at Santa Anita, but they are taking a rather superficial approach. While it seems certain that Sidney?s Candy won?t be able to coast early like he did in the Santa Anita Derby or the San Felipe Stakes, no one can really say for sure what the improving colt will do when he encounters a different pace scenario. Just because he hasn?t done it before (sit off the pace and run well), that doesn?t mean he can?t do it when asked. At this stage, Sidney?s Candy looks a whole lot like Sunday Silence heading into the Derby, and all he did was beat Easy Goer (the next Secretariat, according to all the East Coasters) for fun.

?Here the thing about Sidney?s Candy -- he should have no trouble getting the distance, he should actually improve on real dirt over what he?s been doing on the Pro-Ride and, mentally, he will enter the Kentucky Derby brimming with confidence. The only question is whether he?ll be able to adjust to a totally different sort of pace picture. If he can, he?ll give Eskendereya all he can handle and make it a match race down the lane while reducing everything else (including the still-static Lookin At Lucky) to trying-to-get lucky status.

?Logically speaking, here?s how the race should play out. A bunch of cheap speed goes for the lead while Sidney?s Candy sits back about fourth to gain perfect striking position. Around the far turn, he puts the other front-running types away and draws off while Eskendereya gets into the action. Eskendereya may blow right by Sidney?s Candy at the furlong pole or he may stall as the leader digs in and fights him off. There should be about 10 lengths back to the third-place finisher as the plodders run by the exhausted speed to fight out the minor placings in the superfecta. The best hopes to finish third and fourth would be Setsuko, Ice Box, Endorsement, Mission Impassible, Dean?s Kitten and Stately Victor.?

So the way Osterman sees the Kentucky Derby, it?s not a Big Three, but rather a Big Two, Eskendereya and Sidney?s Candy.

John Sadler, who trains Sidney?s Candy, saddled Line of David to win last Saturday?s Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Line of David darted immediately to the front and responded gamely late to prevail by a neck over Super Saver. Dublin finished third, a neck behind Super Saver.

Line of David, who now is three for three since adding blinkers, is yet another in a long line of horses to win a stakes race on the dirt this year following a start on synthetic footing in Southern California. Line of David joined such others as mighty Zenyatta (Grade I Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park), Lookin At Lucky (Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn), American Lion (Grade III Illinois Derby at Hawthorne), Freedom Star (Grade III Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn), Conveyance (Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn), Zardana (New Orleans Ladies at the Fair Grounds over Rachel Alexandra) and Harissa (Sunland Park Oaks).

Perhaps Sidney?s Candy will add his name to the list by winning the Kentucky Derby following a start on a Southern California synthetic surface.

STRIKES UPDATE

The Big Three have zero strikes in terms of my nine key Kentucky Derby factors. I came up with these nine key factors in 1999 to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks both from a tactical and historical perspective. For each of the nine categories in which a horse doesn?t qualify, the horse gets a strike. (The nine key factors appear at the end of the column.)

Beginning with 1999, here are how many strikes each Kentucky Derby winner has had:

1999 Charismatic (1 strike) category 5
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) category 6
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) categories 2 and 9
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) categories 2 and 5
2006 Barbaro (1 strike) category 6
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2008 Big Brown (1 strike) category 6
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) categories 1, 4, 5 and 9

While last year?s Kentucky Derby winner had four strikes (and hasn?t won again since then), the horses who finished second (Pioneerof the Nile), third (Musket Man), fourth (Papa Clem) and fifth (Chocolate Candy) all had zero strikes.

The Kentucky Derby is limited to the 20 horses with the highest graded stakes earnings. Following are the strikes for the 20 Kentucky Derby candidates who currently have the highest graded stakes earnings, plus the next five horses on that list:

Zero Strikes:
American Lion
Backtalk
Dean?s Kitten
Eskendereya
Lookin At Lucky
Sidney?s Candy

One Strike:
Awesome Act (category 4)
Conveyance (category 6)
Dublin (category 4)
Endorsement (category 6)
Ice Box (category 3)
Jackson Bend (category 2)
Line of David (category 1)
Paddy O?Prado (category 4)
Rule (category 4)
Stately Victor (category 1)
Super Saver (category 4)

Two Strikes:
A Little Warm (categories 2, 4)
Discreetly Mine (categories 4, 5)
Mission Impazible (categories 3, 6)
Noble?s Promise (categories 4, 5)
Pleasant Prince (categories 2, 3)
Setsuko (categories 2, 3)

Three Strikes:
Homeboykris (categories 3, 4, 5)

Four Strikes:
Make Music for Me (categories 1, 2, 3, 5)

Here are the nine key factors:

1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny?s Halo in 1983 and Mine That Bird in 2009 have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 44 of the last 46 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren?t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse?s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don?t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997 and Mine That Bird in 2009, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 have been the only exceptions. Grindsone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 and Barbaro in 2006 each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown in 2008 had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in his or her final start at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Exceptions: Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Derby.)

8. RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Derby winner who didn?t race as a 2-year-old. Since 1955, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 46 in the Kentucky Derby, including two last year, Summer Bird (who finished sixth) and Dunkirk (11th). During that time, the only horses to even place or show were Strodes Creek (second in 1994) and Curlin (third in 2007).

9. NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

 

[KOSMOT]

LUKAS ? LESSONS LEARNED AND A CALL FOR CHANGE
By Ray Paulick

With less than two weeks to go before the Kentucky Derby, D. Wayne Lukas is in his element. With television, newspaper, magazine and website reporters arriving each day at Churchill Downs, the Hall of Fame trainer will soon be spinning tales of his career in racing, and in particular his successes in the sport?s biggest events, the Triple Crown and Breeders? Cup.

Lukas at the Derby is like Dick Vitale at the Final Four, John Madden at the Super Bowl, or James Carville at a political convention. It?s the big show, and like him or not, the Kentucky Derby takes on a different feeling when D. Wayne Lukas is at Churchill Downs with a contender, and he?s got that in the Afleet Alex colt Dublin, a Grade 1 winner last year who has failed to win while hitting the board in all three of his 2010 starts.

Last week in the Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders? Cup, Lukas talked about his own personal learning curve in the Derby, how the Triple Crown series has become more competitive, and about his own successes?four Derby and Belmont wins and five victories in the Preakness. (Click here to read part one of the interview.) We continue our conversation with the 74-year-old trainer, who began his professional life in Wisconsin as a teacher and basketball coach, began working with Quarter Horses when he switched careers, and eventually landed in the Thoroughbred industry, becoming the sport?s most recognizable figure in the 1980s.

What do you remember about your earliest experiences with the Triple Crown 30 years ago?

When I first came around I wasn?t thinking Kentucky Derby, I had grandiose ideas having watched Laz (Barrera, trainer of Affirmed) and Seattle Slew (trained by Billy Turner) win the Triple Crown. I said I?d try to win all three. In the first few years, I was using the Kentucky Derby as a prep for the Preakness because I went into the Derby soft, thinking we could sneak by, and then have a better horse for the Preakness and Belmont. That does not work. After a couple of times doing that, I said, ?We?re winning the Preakness and looking good in the Belmont but not getting the job done in the Derby.?

So what are your biggest regrets when it comes to the Triple Crown?

I?ve been so blessed, so I don?t want anyone to think I?m complaining, but there are two things I look back on with regret. Number one, it?s not nominating Codex to the Kentucky Derby (the 1980 Santa Anita and Hollywood Derby winner didn?t run in the Kentucky Derby because Lukas failed to nominate him; he beat Derby winner Genuine Risk in a controversial Preakness). He was so sharp at the time.

The other one was not winning with a horse I did one of the best training jobs in my career?Proud Citizen coming off a hind leg injury. If Bob Baffert doesn?t buy War Emblem after he wins the Illinois Derby (in 2002, for the late Prince Ahmed of Saudi Arabia), I?ll get my fifth Derby win. We ended up second. Tabasco Cat (sixth to Go for Gin in the 1994 Derby, then went on to win the Preakness and Belmont) might have been the best chance I?ve had to win the Triple Crown, but when that horse next to him threw a fit in the Derby, it cost us. I?ve been around this thing a little bit.

What adjustments have you made over the years?

Number one, not taking the Derby for granted those first few years. Also, to go a mile and a quarter in the Derby, you need a horse that is very manageable. There have been some spectacular horses that have not done well in the Derby because they just are not manageable?closers from left field, or horses that grab the bit in the first half mile?an Althea or an Unbridled?s Song. The horse has got to be manageable for that mile and a quarter. You have to have the mental and physical in synch. The mental is three to one more important than the physical?and that guy on his back is critical, too, in that regard. On the mental side, you?ve got to be a horseman and understand these animals. It?s no different than if you?ve got a pony and you want it to canter around a ring and stay on its left lead. You?ve got to understand how to get them to do what you want them to.

Are horses any different today?physically or in their genetic makeup?than they were 35 years ago when you first started training Thoroughbreds primarily?

I think the breed has changed somewhat. Speed became so prominent, horses that looked like they were quick became popular. The breeding industry led itself to breeding sires with speed. Consequently we changed the conformation and pedigrees a bit, and that?s changed the Derby picture. That may be why we haven?t had a Triple Crown winner. We aren?t breeding as many horses that are adaptable to those distances. They are going to breed what the buyers want. It?s like a clothing store: if you like paisley, we?ll have that on the shelf, if you want stripes, we?ll be sure to have stripes. Buyers are looking for horses with speed, so that?s what the breeders are bringing to the sales.

Do you still believe the Triple Crown would benefit from some changes in distances and scheduling?

First thing I think, with the way we are breeding them, we need to look at the distances. We?re not breeding horses to go more than the classic distance, which is a mile and a quarter. Nowhere in the United States do we have to prepare horses to go a mile and a half again after the Belmont. Why not breed for a classic horse and give more of them a chance to stay around and develop a fan base.

So, if you change that Derby to a mile and an eighth, you don?t have to bear down on them as much as a trainer. It would be so much easier to train a horse. Then, time is your ally. Coming back in two weeks after the Derby is hard. Looking back through history books, horses with problems don?t come back in the Preakness or they get hurt in the Preakness. It would be like Jimmy Johnson winning the Daytona 500 and then doesn?t go in the next several races. You go a mile and an eighth and win the Kentucky Derby, the horse gets a following. Then. three weeks later, you add a sixteenth of a mile to go in the Preakness (the same 1 3/16 miles as its current distance). Then you add three more weeks and you get a mile and a quarter in the Belmont. Now you?ve got a series.

You probably might have that same bunch of horses lasting a little longer and developing more rivalries. The other thing is you might get more fillies. Trainers contemplating running a filly in the Derby, most of them are concerned about getting that mile and a quarter the first Saturday in May. You make it a mile and an eighth, they?re more likely to run those fillies. I think the distance is important.

When I first brought this up, they said you couldn?t run a mile and a quarter at Belmont because of the way the track is laid out. Well, that argument went out the door when they started running the Breeders? Cup Classic there and you start the race on the turn.

So you want to upset all the traditionalists in racing?

I?m going to put something else out there that might make some people throw up, but I think they need to run the Kentucky Derby at night. Put it on television during prime time. I?m against night racing in general, but once a year if it would send our sport back to where it belongs.

Copyright ? 2010, The Paulick Report

 

[Axle]

Jeremy Plonk's top 20: Week 16 of the 2010 season

1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
2. ESKENDEREYA
3. SIDNEY'S CANDY
4. DROSSELMEYER
5. SETSUKO
6. ENDORSEMENT
7. CONVEYANCE
8. JACKSON BEND
9. ICE BOX
10. STATELY VICTOR
11. MISSION IMPAZIBLE
12. CARACORTADO
13. SUPER SAVER
14. NOBLE'S PROMISE
15. AMERICAN LION
16. LINE OF DAVID
17. RULE
18. DISCREETLY MINE
19. AWESOME ACT
20. DUBLIN

 

[Axle]

With Eskendereya out, this might get a little interesting......

I am starting to lean towards Sidney's Candy.... :0corn

 

[yyz]

just read that battaglia will likely make Eskendereya 2-1 on the ml with lucky at 4-1

if you like Eskendereya and can find futures at 3-1 or better i'd advise hammering away now.

:sadwave:

Futures are a hard way to go sometimes, and this was one of those times.

 

[IE]

Rule is ruled out of Kentucky Derby


Rule is out and the filly Devil May Care and Jackson Bend are in the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday he wasn?t pleased with the way Rule worked at Churchill Downs. Pletcher instead will point the 3-year-old colt to the Preakness on May 15.

Pletcher gained another Derby starter Monday when owner John Greathouse said he?s entering Devil May Care in the Derby. He?ll likely have four starters in the Derby and could add a fifth if Interactif runs. A decision on Interactif will be made Tuesday.

Rule?s defection opens the door for Jackson Bend, who finished second to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Eskendereya was removed from Derby consideration Sunday because of a leg injury.

 

[KOSMOT]

Posted: Monday, April 26, 2010 5:08 PM

Sidney?s Candy follows proven path to dirt

SIDNEY'S CANDY
PhotosByZ.com

by Jeff Lowe

Bob Baffert may not train Sidney?s Candy, but he has been fairly adamant that the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner is the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1).

Baffert shrugged off the primary question that has surrounded the Candy Ride (Arg) colt: can he handle dirt? No one knows for sure since Sidney?s Candy, at this point, carries the distinction of being the only Derby horse without a previous start on conventional dirt.

Sidney?s Candy has raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces in Southern California, rolling into Churchill Downs with three straight wins on the Pro-Ride track at Santa Anita Park. His front-running triumph in the Santa Anita Derby came at the expense of Baffert?s champion Lookin At Lucky, who finished a troubled third in the worst performance of his career.

Churchill oddsmaker Mike Battaglia said Sunday that he viewed Lookin At Lucky as the probable favorite at around 3-to-1 odds and Sidney?s Candy as the second-choice at around 6-to-1. Lookin At Lucky?s form is a little more clear since he won the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park in his only start on dirt.

Baffert said Sidney?s Candy should have no trouble with the transition.

?Sidney?s Candy should be the favorite, he?s the one that beat [Lookin At Lucky],? Baffert said. ?I?ve watched him work twice here and he looks phenomenal. He?ll run well. Our horses in California, once they get off the synthetic, they really move up on the dirt, especially speed horses. They can utilize their speed a lot more.?

Baffert used that formula with Conveyance, who won the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn in his dirt debut. Sidney?s Candy?s trainer, John Sadler, made the same move with Line of David, who led at every call in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

?We?re hard on ourselves and everybody?s hard on California, but if you look at the horses that have come out of California this year, we?ve shipped all over the country and run well this year, from the three-year-olds to Zenyatta, Evening Jewel, Blind Luck, and Zardana (Brz),? Sadler said.

The Derby lineup also features an unusual amount of turf form. Noble?s Promise, Line of David, Stately Victor, Dean?s Kitten, Interactif, Awesome Act, and Paddy O?Prado all are winners on turf. Paddy O?Prado and Dean?s Kitten were the top two finishers, respectively, in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) on the grass at Gulfstream Park.

Dale Romans, the Churchill-based trainer of Paddy O?Prado, said he does not necessarily subscribe to an old-time theory that horses with turf pedigrees perform better on the Churchill dirt than they would elsewhere.

?I?ve heard that said?that if you?re going to run a turf horse on the dirt, this is the place to do it?but I don?t know that I?ve really noticed it,? Romans said. ?My horse trains well here on the dirt, and his sire, El Prado (Ire), has 50% of his winners on the dirt, and this horse?s mother won on the dirt.

?He?s a good horse anyways. He was one of our favorite two-year-olds when he came in, and we took some aggressive steps with him. He ran a couple stakes as a maiden, but he was such a good horse that we didn?t want to waste a good effort in a maiden race.?

Jeff Lowe is a Thoroughbred Times staff writer

 

[IE]

Apr 27, 2010 - On Saturday afternoon, 19 three-year-old colts and one filly will attempt to win the greatest thoroughbred race in America, the Kentucky Derby. Once the starting gate opens, these horses will run the longest race of their career, in the largest field of their career, in front of the largest crowd they will ever see. And when the field passes the legendary twin spires for the second time, one horse will earn a place in racing history.

With such a large field, sorting through all the horses, jockeys, and trainers can be a daunting task for the casual Derby observer, many of whom will make their picks due to name, color, lucky number, or a combination of factors. In order to help clarify the picture, a brief overview of this year?s Kentucky Derby contenders....




American Lion: The first of the many speed horses entered in this year?s Derby, American Lion ran his first ever race on dirt in the Illinois Derby and it produced the best race of his career. He?s a long striding colt that may find it difficult to easily secure the lead on Saturday.

Awesome Act: Won the Gotham Stakes in New York this spring and then finished 3rd to the since scratched Eskendereya in his final prep race. Awesome Act is a patient horse that should be able to sit back and make a move late in the race. He?s got a great chance to win and could be available at odds of somewhere around 15/1 on Derby day, depending how things shake out.

Backtalk: A closer that currently might not make it into the Derby due to a lack of graded earnings. If he does draw in, he might be a short on stamina as he?s never won a race at a distance longer than a mile. Backtalk is sired by 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner, Smarty Jones.

Conveyance: Another of the many speed horses in this year?s Derby, Conveyance has never won a race when he didn?t lead the entire way. He and Sidney?s Candy should be fighting for the lead going into the first turn.

Dean?s Kitten: This colt has only run on dirt once in his lifetime where he lost by 33 3/4 lengths ? not really the type of result you want to see from a horse in the Kentucky Derby. Dean?s Kitten likes to do his running late in the race so he could benefit if there?s a fast pace and a bunch of tired horses sucking oxygen in the stretch.

Devil May Care: The lone filly in this year?s field, Devil May Care has run some very nice races against female horses in her career but will try the boys for the first time on Saturday. No filly has won the Kentucky Derby since 1988, and only three have won in the 135 year history of the race (Regret, Genuine Risk, and Winning Colors).

Discreetly Mine: Another speed horse that has never won a race where he didn?t have the lead every step of the way. It?s very tough to make a case for this horse when you factor in the presence of other dominant speed horses like Conveyance, Sidney?s Candy, and Line of David. It will be tough for him to grab the lead.

Dublin: Sired by 2005 Preakness and Belmont winner, Afleet Alex, this colt has tons of talent in his pedigree but not a whole lot of career wins to show for it. He?s come up just short in all his races this spring but Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas appears to have him sharp for the big one. Dublin is a dangerous horse because it?s easy to think he?s going to finally win until you watch him run 2nd or 3rd.

Endorsement: A lightly raced colt that blew away the competition in the Sunland Derby in late March. This colt appears to have a ton of talent and a very high ceiling, but he?s short on experience. The Derby is the most difficult race in America to win and it?s even more difficult for an inexperienced colt like Endorsement. It wouldn?t be a surprise to see him run huge or to see finish well back of the field.

Homeboykris: Hasn?t won a race since last October and finished second in a non-stakes race in Florida two months ago. This horse would produce payouts along the lines of Giacomo and Mine That Bird if he were to win the Derby.

Ice Box: If the pace is fast enough early, this hard-closing winner of the Florida Derby could find himself passing a lot of tired horses in the stretch. Ice Box is a very intriguing long shot possibility considering that the pace should be quite fast this year. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito will be attempting to win his third Kentucky Derby, and his first since 1994.

Interactif: A turf horse that will be trying the dirt for the first time since last summer when he was as two-year-old. Interactif had an awful morning work on Monday and doesn?t appear to be training well heading into the biggest race of his life.

Jackson Bend: Another horse trained by Nick Zito, Jackson Bend is the direct beneficiary of the scratch of both Eskendereya and Rule, as he will now likely draw into the Derby field. He hasn?t won a race since last October, but he?s run credibly in all three of his starts this spring.

Line of David: Ran a huge race when he won the Arkansas Derby last time out but he?s struggled a little bit with his morning works over the last week. His sire, Lion Heart, ran second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

Lookin At Lucky: If you were wondering who the favorite in this year?s Derby would be after Eskendereya had to withdraw due to an injury, look no further than Lookin At Lucky. Lucky was the champion two year old colt in America last year after winning three graded stakes races and finishing second in the Breeders? Cup Juvenile. Bob Baffert is still one of the most charismatic trainers in the game and he has this colt working like a freight train in preparation for Saturday?s race.

Make Music for Me: This colt currently doesn?t have enough graded earnings to get into the Derby but if some of these others don?t enter he could squeak into the field. He?ll be a huge long shot to win as he?s never even won a graded stakes race in his career.

Mission Impazible: This colt?s races don?t exactly "wow" you but he?s definitely a horse that keeps running and running through the stretch. He might not make a great bet to win but he could be a horse to play in a trifecta or superfecta wager.

Noble?s Promise: Always a bridesmaid and never a bride, this colt has finished right behind Lookin At Lucky three times in his career. He had some troubles in the Arkansas Derby in his last race but has come back to post a couple of great works at Churchill Downs over the past week. When he?s on his game, he can run with the favorite.

Paddy O?Prado: Another colt that has spent most of his career racing on grass prior to his attempt at the Derby. He hasn?t run on dirt since last July is a mystery as to what he?ll do on Saturday. Paddy is trained by local Louisville trainer Dale Romans.

Sidney?s Candy: The undisputed King of California after he swept all three races he ran at Santa Anita this spring, including the Santa Anita Derby in his final prep race. Look for him to be out front early as he?s won all three races this year by leading every step of the way. Sidney?s Candy will be ridden by young gun, Joe Talamo.

Stately Victor: If you?re looking for this year?s Mine That Bird, this would be your colt. On paper, this horse looks to be completely outclassed by this field ... but they don?t run the Derby on paper. Stately Victor wants to see a fast, fast pace so that he call roll by the field in the stretch when all the others are tired. His two previous attempts to run on dirt, however, were not very strong.

Super Saver: There is so much to like about this horse -- he?s won a stakes race at Churchill Downs already in his career, he?s got Calvin Borel in the saddle (last year?s winning jockey), and he?s seems to be improving with every race this spring. This colt might be the sleeper of the entire Derby and it?s very possible that he could be the one to beat.

 

[IE]

Endorsement out of Kentucky Derby

-- Just hours before entries were due for the Kentucky Derby, Endorsement is out of the race -- and for the foreseeable future -- after suffering a fractured right front ankle during a workout at Churchill Downs Wednesday morning.

Interactif also won't be entered in the race. The changes allow Backtalk and Make Music for Me to become part of a full 20-horse field when the post position draw takes place later Wednesday.

Endorsement's injury reduces WinStar Farms' Derby contingent to two horses: Super Saver and American Lion. Earlier this week another WinStar horse, Rule, was ruled out after sluggish training.

The bigger blow is to trainer Shannon Ritter, who was three days away from saddling her first Kentucky Derby horse.

"It's obviously very disappointing," an ashen Ritter said at Churchill Barn 19. "It's hard to get to the Derby."

The Sunland Derby winner turned in a sizzling work Wednesday, covering four furlongs in less than 48 seconds. But Ritter said she noticed that something was off with the colt's right front leg on the walk back to the barn. After only a couple of tours around the shedrow to cool down, Endorsement was taken into his stall.

Shortly thereafter, veterinarian Bo Landry came to the barn, along with WinStar racing manager Elliott Walden. After X-rays were taken in the stall, Walden announced a non-displaced, condylar fracture of the right front leg. Surgery is tentatively set for tomorrow, and Landry estimated that the recovery time could be 3-6 months.

"It's disappointing for the whole WinStar family," Walden said. "Especially disappointing for Shannon. It's a great moment, she's done a great job with the horse."

 

[KOSMOT]

Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Kentucky Derby: Pace, Traffic and Faith

One of oldest and most sound handicapping principles in thoroughbred racing is "pace makes the race." The study of handicapping under this theory dictates that each horse in a given race be classified as a front runner, a stalker or a closer. (Different systems have different terms, but the definitions are fairly consistent). After which the potential prognosticator attempts to map out the race at different stages relative to the competitors positions and energy used and determine which has the best chance to win.If there are too many front runners, the thinking goes, they will fight each other for the lead and run too fast, too early, tire and eventually surrender the lead to the stalkers and closers. A lone speed horse, on the other hand, may dictate a slow pace and have plenty to withstand the late challengers.

Without question, the first scenario appears very likely in the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Among the 20 most likely Derby starters as of Tuesday, no less than seven of them are legitimate speed horses including Sidney's Candy, the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) winner and the probable second choice in the betting behind only Lookin at Lucky.

With that many horses going for the lead, the pace of this year's Kentucky Derby figures to be very rapid and will theoretically compromise the chances of the front running horses. Of the seven speed horses in the Derby, Line of David, Conveyance and Sidney's Candy are the most apt at winning from the front end and are likely to try to set the pace in the Derby.

The jockeys on these speed horses will be riding much more aggressively out of the gate and during the first quarter-mile run past the grandstand for the first time and looking for the few front row spots around the famous clubhouse turn.

Each year hundreds of photos are taken of the horses running around the first turn in the Kentucky Derby with the twin spires in the backround. Television producers also make a point of taking annual signature shot of the stampede around the first. For the jockeys aboard the front runners - it is their first job in the race to make that shot. You don't have to be the first one in the picture, but the cameras better see you. The race is most like over for any front runner lost back in the pack that early.

Eleven of the Derby contenders appear to be stalkers and will most likely be making up the middle of the pack as the field begins their run down the Churchill Downs backstretch.

Note: After saying Monday that Interactif was unlikely for the Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher said a final decision will be made Wednesday. That would eliminate Backtalk should Interactif enter.

Of this group, Paddy O'Prado, Jackson Bend and Homeboykris are the most likely to be nearest the leaders as they have raced very near the front runners in their recent races and are thus most vulnerable to also getting caught in a fast pace early. While the other stalkers appear to be more flexible in how they can be placed by their jockey during the race. Notable horses such as Lookin at Lucky, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible, Awesome Act and Noble's Promise should fall into the second tier of stalkers.

The stalkers will be looking to have a clean break from the gate and an uneventful first run past the grandstand and into the clubhouse turn. The objective of the jockeys aboard these stalkers will be to avoid as much of the inevitable traffic jam caused when the 20 horses begin to negotiate positions in the first 400 yards. Going into the first turn, those plans can collide and horses can bump, check, jostle and even stumble. The stalkers are most likely to get the brunt of that traffic and can also lose all chance of victory at this point as well.

Down the backstretch, relaxation and rhythm will be everyone's goal. Jockeys will be hoping for a ride with still hands, long reins and a straight back that will hold a martini glass and not spill a drop.

Near the red and white pole near the far turn a half-mile from the finish, the jockeys hands will begin to move as front runners begin to tire and stalkers and closers begin to rally. Turn number two also provides the second bevy of traffic obstacles, but this time it will be more vertical as the jockeys on any potential winners begin to steer around and through the stopping pretenders.

As three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert says, "At the top of the stretch, you just want your horse to have a chance to win. If they're backing up at that point, it's just not very fun."

The Churchill Downs stretch is one of the longest in North America at 1,097 feet from the far turn to the finish line - just 223 feet short a quarter-mile. So closer and late stalkers have plenty of ground closers to run down any front runners.

How that turns out Saturday, nobody yet knows. But it is sure to be another fitting conclusion to the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Posted by Brock Sheridan at 9:21 AM

 

[Striker13]

Post Positions for the Derby. This makes it even more interesting as the 2 favorites draw the 1 and 20 holes.

1. Lookin at Lucky
2. Ice Box
3. Noble's Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Line of David
6. Stately Victor
7. American Lion
8. Deans Kitten
9. Make Music for Me
10. Paddy o Prado
11. Devil May Care
12. Conveyance
13. Jackson Bend
14. Mission Impazible
15. Discreetly Mine
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
19. Homeboykris
20. Sidneys Candy

 

[KOSMOT]

Haskin's Derby Report: Victor in the Slop
By Steve Haskin
Updated: Thursday, April 29, 2010 2:12 PM


As if the 136th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) isn?t muddled enough, with the defection of heavy Eskendereya and the two new favorites drawing the two worst post positions, now we have to contend with a storm that could be flood-like in intensity.

Slop is the great equalizer in racing and normally gives longshots a better shot. There are several horses in the field who have looked good training in the slop this week, many of whom will be a fairly big price. But there is one over at Trackside that no one has seen train. And that is Stately Victor, who, based on his pedigree, could actually improve off his dominating victory in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on Polytrack.

If there is a better bred horse for the slop, we haven?t seen him. His sire, Ghostzapper , earned a spectacular 128 Beyer figure in the slop at Monmouth, winning the Iselin Handicap (gr. III) by 10 3/4 lengths. Ghostzapper?s sire, Awesome Again , was two-for-two in the slop, winning the Jim Dandy (gr. II) by three lengths and a Churchill Downs allowance race by seven lengths. Awesome Again, in addition to Ghostzapper, sired Ginger Punch, who won the Breeders? Cup Distaff (gr. I) in the slop.

The best, however, is still to come. Stately Victor is inbred top and bottom to perhaps the most influential slop sire in the country, In Reality, through Relaunch and Valid Appeal, two major slop influences. Relaunch sired Waquoit, a 15-length winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) in the slop.

Stately Victor?s broodmare sire, Dynaformer , sired Barbaro, who won the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) in the slop, and Dynaformer is from the His Majesty/Graustark/ Ribot line, one of the most dominant slop families in the last half century. And finally, Stately Victor?s third dam, Cricket Club, is by Dr. Fager, who won the Arlington Classic by 10 lengths in his only appearance in the slop. That effort earned him a ?superior? mud mark in the Daily Racing Form.

In his career debut, taken off the turf, Stately Victor finished a fast-closing second to eventual Derby contender Winslow Homer over a track labeled good.

So, make of it as you wish. Stately Victor is a big, powerful colt with a long, sweeping stride, which could compromise him if he gets stopped. But that can apply to most any horse in the Derby. One thing is for sure, and that is, if pedigree means anything, Stately Victor should absolutely relish the slop.

As for the horses who have trained well in the slop at Churchill Downs, the ones who seemed to get over it the best and have the pedigree to handle an off track are Paddy O'Prado, Mission Impazible, Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, and Super Saver. Another Awesome Again who should have no problem with an off track is Awesome Act, who, for all you RF (Rasmussen Factor) pundits, is inbred on the bottom to the great mare Almahmoud through her two legendary daughters Cosmah and Natalma. So, this is an all-female RF (mare and daughters), which is pretty uncommon.

Mission Impazible is by Unbridled's Song and his dam?s maternal grandsire in Speak John, both of whom should help him a great deal in the slop. Noble?s Promise has a strong slop-oriented tail-female family ? all Darby Dan -- that should help him stretch out to 1 1/4 miles.

Sidney's Candy was out on the track at 5:45 Thursday morning and had the best gallop I?ve seen from him. He was asked to pick it up and he responded by rolling around there at quick pace and reaching out with great extension.

Mission Impazible was another who had his best gallop, getting his down and into the bit and moving with authority.

Slop also should move Dean's Kitten up. His sire, Kitten's Joy , is by El Prado, one of the most versatile stallions in the world, siring grade I winners on dirt and grass, including Medaglia d'Oro (sire of mud-loving Rachel Alexandra), who won the Travers Stakes (gr. I) in the slop.

The two most striking Derby horses on the track this morning were Stately Victor and American Lion, two imposing powerhouses who look spectacular physically. Both are well-dappled on their hind end. The winner of the ?show? horse of the Derby is Mission Impazible, with his stately demeanor and chiseled features. He is a classic-looking colt in the truest sense.

 

[Axle]

Updated: April 30, 2010, 11:12 PM ET


Churchill has plan for bad weather



LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Local officials and Churchill Downs said Friday afternoon that contingency plans are in place to deal with the potential for heavy rains and severe weather during Saturday's Kentucky Derby program. Officials are expecting a crowd of 150,000 at the track.

Officials said they are most concerned about the crowd in the infield, and that they have formulated a plan to evacuate the infield in case the tunnels become blocked. Churchill Downs is prepared to use the newly installed track lights this year should conditions force post time for the Derby to be delayed, said Doug Hamilton, the former chief of the Louisville Police Department and currently the executive director of the Louisville Emergency Management.

The ultimate decision to delay post time for the Derby would be made by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission and chief steward John Veitch following consultation with Churchill Downs officials. Churchill has also consulted with NBC, which will televise the Derby, regarding contingency plans should post time for the race be delayed due to the weather. Post time for the Derby has been pushed back from 6:24 to 6:28 p.m., according to track officials.

Although the original forecast called for very strong storms to move through the Louisville area in the hours just prior to the Derby, National Weather Service representative Joe Ammerman said the forecast had changed for the better.

"Right now the National Weather Service is forecasting showers that could last from three to four hours beginning at 10 a.m., with the potential for one inch of rain and then just scattered showers and light rain from 2 p.m up until post time for the Derby," said Ammerman. "The most severe weather is now predicted to be over the area after midnight."

 

[KOSMOT]

Monday, May 10, 2010

Bravo!


Trainer Nick Zito is no fool. The man has won five Triple Crown races during his career: the 1991 Derby with Strike The Gold, the 1994 Derby with Go For Gin, the 1996 Preakness with Louis Quatorze, the 2004 Belmont with Birdstone, and the 2008 Belmont with Da'Tara. He was inducted into the Racing Hall Of Fame in 2005.

Zito had two runners in the Kentucky Derby this year (Jackson Bend and Ice Box). One was cursed with being the top pick of yours truly and the other actually ran the best race of the day, finishing 2nd to Super Saver despite being stopped repeatedly and suffering a miserable trip. The natural inclination would be to continue to move forward with Ice Box and run him right back in the Preakness Stakes this Saturday at Pimlico.

However, as I said earlier, Zito is no fool. He has decided to pass the Preakness and point Ice Box to the Belmont Stakes three weeks after this Saturday. He had to convince the horse's owner, Robert LaPenta, that this was the right course of action. Thankfully, for the horse's chances, the owner relented and listened to his intelligent trainer. Ice Box ran the best race on Derby Day off of a pronounced layoff of six weeks between his win in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. It seems logical that the horse requires a bit of a break between starts to put forth his best effort. Five weeks between the Derby and the Belmont appears to be about right. The other consideration is if you put a horse not used to running a race in such a long period of time through three strenuous races in a five-week period, you compromise his chances of doing anything later in the year (like the Travers, the Haskell, or any of the other big races that come up in the summer and autumn). The one word you can certainly use to label Ice Box's race in Kentucky was strenuous.

All Zito is doing is what is best for the horse and best for his chances of getting another notch on his Triple Crown belt. Don't forget that those two Belmont victories of his dashed the hopes of a Triple Crown winner both times (Smarty Jones in 2004 and Big Brown in 2008). If Super Saver wins the Preakness on Saturday, Zito becomes the likeliest of trainers to get that third strike against history with a fresh horse in a race tailor-made for what he likes to do.


Posted by Michael Chamberlain at <a class="timestamp-link" href="http://theyareoff.blogspot.com/2010/05/bravo.html" rel="bookmark" title="permanent link"><abbr class="published" title="2010-05-10T12:35:00-07:00">12:35 PM</abbr>