Run em Friday
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
I stared at the numbers for chicago state and wagner for 30 min fri afternoon…
I got to a score of 75-59 / 75-60 wagner.
Now the line was 9.5 and total was 124.5 or 125 to open, sharp money knocked it down first, then public money drive it higher to 126/126.5 by game time. All bad signs for the over and for wagner. But a hard and fast rule i have is not to take teams who score less than the opponent and allow more (ppg).
Wagner 65 / 56 (ppg scored vs allowed) and ch st 59 / 85.
Then the starting lineup didnt include 3 of wagners top 4 scorers (all relative these dudes average like 10 pts a game), and the numbers made sense. Ultimately laid off it, liked sparty, nevada and marist far more
Btw marist / iona another example of the “teams who score less than the opponent and allow more” as iona fit this criteria, and despite line movement that strongly went ionas way, i took marist +3.
But great pick jord. We all have our methodology and signals that drive our picks, sometimes just a matter of valuation and exhausted trends that are in a spot to buck them (not really gut feel but instinct / experience definitely matter)… we like what we like sometimes even if a teams 0-15 lol.
I got to a score of 75-59 / 75-60 wagner.
Now the line was 9.5 and total was 124.5 or 125 to open, sharp money knocked it down first, then public money drive it higher to 126/126.5 by game time. All bad signs for the over and for wagner. But a hard and fast rule i have is not to take teams who score less than the opponent and allow more (ppg).
Wagner 65 / 56 (ppg scored vs allowed) and ch st 59 / 85.
Then the starting lineup didnt include 3 of wagners top 4 scorers (all relative these dudes average like 10 pts a game), and the numbers made sense. Ultimately laid off it, liked sparty, nevada and marist far more
Btw marist / iona another example of the “teams who score less than the opponent and allow more” as iona fit this criteria, and despite line movement that strongly went ionas way, i took marist +3.
But great pick jord. We all have our methodology and signals that drive our picks, sometimes just a matter of valuation and exhausted trends that are in a spot to buck them (not really gut feel but instinct / experience definitely matter)… we like what we like sometimes even if a teams 0-15 lol.
