Run Lines vs. Money Lines ..... FRIDAY

[BigDog]

Results:
ML 1-3 25.0% -117.54
RL 1-3 25.0% -85.00
Run Line is ahead by 32.54(0.65 units)

Friday:
Money Line
COL -143 $50.00 to win $34.97
ARZ -191 $50.00 to win $26.18
SEA -245 $50.00 to win $20.41
ANA -132 $50.00 to win $37.88

Run Line -1.5 runs
COL +130 $50.00 to win $65.00
ARZ -105 $50.00 to win $47.62
SEA -140 $50.00 to win $35.71
ANA +140 $50.00 to win $70.00

I know 1-3 isn't anything to write home about, but this is purely a comparrison between Money Lines and Run Lines.


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If you're not the lead dog, your view never changes.

[This message has been edited by BigDog (edited 06-01-2001).]

 

[BigDog]

Friday: 3-1
Money Line
COL -143 $50.00 to win $34.96 LOST
ARZ -191 $50.00 to win $26.18 WON
SEA -245 $50.00 to win $20.41 WON
ANA -132 $50.00 to win $37.88 WON
Total: $34.47

Run Line -1.5 runs
COL +130 $50.00 to win $65.00 LOST
ARZ -105 $50.00 to win $47.62 WON
SEA -140 $50.00 to win $35.71 WON
ANA +140 $50.00 to win $70.00 WON
Total: $103.33

YTD Results:
ML 4-4 50.0% -83.07
RL 4-4 50.0% +18.33
Run Line is ahead by $101.40(2.03 units)

Back later with Saturday's picks.


[This message has been edited by BigDog (edited 06-02-2001).]

 

[He Hate Me]

Runline will lose.

 

[TDP]

Runlines are like most other things. whether you win or lose in the long run depends on who you pick and how you bet. Runlines are not inheritly bad and can be used as a source of moneymanagement if used reasonably..........

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Just for information:

During April the % of teams that won the runline was 38% (without betting seattle RL and against Tampa the % was 35) so, if we take an average RL at -160 (the +1.5 run) you would only be playing with your money and maybe see your bankroll increase just a little (remember you need to win the 61.7% of the time just to finish even with a -160 line)on the other hand if you give the -1.5 you will need to bet only +180 games in order to break even (if you win 35% of the games +180 will be the money line needed).

PS1 the 65% is just taking +1.5 on games where the favorite is -115 or more, i dont have the numbers for the -110, anyway the point here is that you will finish even (with those odds which are greats) at the end of the season.

PS2. I dont have May data I need to take time if someone know an easy way to find the scores with the runline and odds let me now, because i spent 4 complete hours on nss.net past scores looking which one was the favorite and if they won by more that 2 runs.

PS3. (and last one). During april Fav won 55% and road 45%.

 

[TDP]

The following is my personal opinion. I have been around long enough to know that I am not always right or always wrong, it is just what I believe and play accordingly as long as it is working within reason for me. I think when you bet run lines as anything else you have to be selective. Otherwise if you play everygame down the board it becomes a system. In my opinion you cannot count on a system to perform consistently over the long haul. You can win in the short term, but as time goes by the law of averages will almost always catch up to a system. On the other hand if you take the time to cap the games, some will fall into the category of being a good play on the run line. This is not to say I will not lose some games as my team wins by one run which is the magic number to be sure. But when I can cut roughly $100 off what I lay and get Seattle vs. Tampa bay having to win by two runs I must at least give it consideration. I realize many disagree with me, but this is my opinion. There are several ways to get the bottom line (profit consistently), we all have our own philosophys and ways.I know run lines are not for everbody, but I do use them in certain places and believe they can help the bottom line when used with thought............

 

[Keyser Soze]

No arguement here, purely discussion...........
I have, at times, used the run line and this year so far it has burned me badly......In your case with Seattle vs. TBay, there really is no validity in positive return on the run line. If you are laying 230 on the money line, you are still going to be laying 10 or 15 cents on the run line, therefore your return is still only one unit. If you are just trying to save "juice" if you lose, then there is an advantage at that moment, or game. But that is also lost in the wash when the win by one run as they did two nights ago. I have not sat down anfigured this portion out, but I'm thinking there may be more value in run lines on laesser odds teams. If a team is favored by 15 or 20 cents then you will be getting back 50 to 75 cents laying the run and a half. Obviously there is no REAL CLEAR CUT favorite, so your chances of a win certainly seem a little less than a 230 fav, but then again this is where due dilligence and homework have to come into play. I'm not a math guy, I wish I was, I'm just not, but if I were I would try to evaluate the effectivness of the run line on the smaller favs where you are always +money on ther return.......Just a thought for further discussion.

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"Nothing is either good or bad, but thinking makes it so."

 

[Ice Picks]

To begin with, I have not played any run-lines yet this year. But I have observed that there are not many one run games being played this year. Yesterday, for instance, there was only one game which was a one run game out of 15 games. This is fairly typical results.

This leads me to think that a play on the run line may be in order, of course assuming you have chosen the winning team -1.5.

Perhaps you could play your best pick or picks both ways, splitting your bet into 1/2 unit on each. I have not researched this enough except to pose my observations on this phenomenom this year - that most games are being won/lost by 2 or more runs. It would SEEM easier to pick winning teams, than to pick a dog +1.5.

Any comments appreciated......

 

[BigDog]

I appreciate the great information. I agree with most of you. Run Lines CAN be profitable if used with common sence. I would never suggest betting straight run lines. There has to be the likelihood of a win. But my premise was that IF a team is heavily favored, and that favor has validity after viewing the record and a few pitching stats (I never go overboard on stats...it's just not for me), then going with the run line to increase your payoff should be the way to go. It most certainly increases your return percentages.

 

[TDP]

Keyser Soze, I think you bring up a very important point. This is discussion. That is what makes this forum the great forum that it is. No doubt the return is going to be one unit whether you lay 230 or 110. But the fact remains that any game can lose and sometimes the least likely do. I consider it a form of moneymangement to lay 110 instead of 230 in games I feel the favorite has a good shot of controlling the game. Nobody knows what will happen in any given game. Seattle could lose today. But I feel that they have a very good shot to not only win, but win by more than one run. I am willing to take that chance. If I lose then I lose 125 instead of 240, If they win by one run
so be it. I am not saying that I am right and anybody else is wrong, this is just how I play some games....

 

[TDP]

Big Dog, for what it is worth I agree with your philosophy 100%(regarding heavy favorites) from what I have seen. I see where you are not picking every game, only those you like. I just wanted to give my feelings on run lines as I feel they sometimes get a bad rap. Not that it matters, but I will be watching your study with interest as I am always willing to learn. GOOD LUCK TO YOU........

 

[dc]

Dr Baseball's done a lot of number crunching here...just want to say a big thank you for doing the research and sharing it with us.

I had always wondered what the numbers would look like using RL data, but too lazy to put it together. I realize it's only April data, but I've no reason to think that over the course of a season, the results would change by much.

I, too, have played games on the RL here and there where I felt a situation or matchup warranted it. But it looks like your research tells me that no matter what I "feel" about a game, the odds are what the odds are...and that I'm going against some pretty good odds. My "feeling" about about a game is not going to change the math.

Looks like there are other choices out there other than the RL that offer me a better chance.

Thanks again.

-dc

Just my two centavos, for what it's worth.

 

[nemo]

Giving -1.5 will definitely profit in the long run, I have never taken a fave w/o giving 1.5 runs. Games won by the fave by exactly one run do not happen often enough to not give the 1.5. It is very similar to betting hockey...always give half a goal but never take it. Big Dog, enjoy your tracking because you are doing the right thing. IMO why take a -110 fave when you can get +170 on the runline +.8 units for 1 stinkin run. sure you will lose by 1 run every now and then but it will profit. Good Luck

 

[BigDog]

Hey dc, No one says the odds change by how you "feel" about a game. Without getting into complicated math, I can simplify it this way.

The only way you can't win more cash by using run lines is if you get a bunch of favorites winning by only one run! Period. That's it ... the only way.

The only possible valid arguement against run lines is if you think favorites win lots of one point games. Otherwise it cannot be pragmatic to lay $220.00 to win $100.00 instead of laying $120.00 to win that same $100.00, ceterus paribus.

I guess we'll all have to watch and see. Maybe we'll make dc a believer, he'll become more successful at gambling, and quit his day job.

Good Luck as always,

Dave

[This message has been edited by BigDog (edited 06-02-2001).]

 

[dc]

Big Dog...whoahhh, down boy! Don't want to get bit by the big fella!

My comments certainly weren't directed at you or your style or anyone else's style of play...only my own! If they yanked on the big dog's chain, or my path crossed into your territory, you certainly have my apologies.


Actually, I happen to totally agree with you when you say:

"The only way you can't win more cash by using run lines is if you get a bunch of favorites winning by only one run! Period. That's it ... the only way."

The only thing is, Mr. Baseball's research tells us that, in the month of April at least, we only have a 38% chance of doing so (on average).

All I'm saying is, there are plenty of other places on a given day to put a wager that offer a lot better odds..at least for my money. For those that can buck those kind of odds and still make money in the long run, my hat's off to you!

Oh and...your comments regarding my day job and being successful at gambling? Ouch! Quite a big growl from the big dog, but just to assure you, both are fine...thank you. They stay that way by avoiding the low return propositions.

-dc

 

[BigDog]

dc,

I do not feel that you yanked my chain. Nor did I wish for you to think I was attacking your gambling prowess or your day job. The later comments were simply in jest. I certainly couldn't quit myday job to gamble.

Sometimes this is not the best medium for communicating...especially when it occurs between two strangers....a lot tend to get lost and sometimes misconceived. Your apology was most gracious but unneccessary.

Good luck to us both!

Dave

 

[dc]

Big Dog (Dave):

You know...with all the trash we see out in most of the other forums, it's almost shocking to see such a polite, adult and classy response such as yours. How refreshing. Nice to be corresponding with a true gentleman.

Here's wishing you much luck with your ML vs RL project. I'm going to be rootin' for ya! (However, if you keep having good days like you did on Fri...you won't need us wishing you luck, as your good capping skills will be well evident.)

Take care,
-dc



[This message has been edited by dc (edited 06-02-2001).]

[This message has been edited by dc (edited 06-02-2001).]

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Ok a lot of controversy, by the way thanks dc is good to see someone takes time to read my posts.

April
315 games
174 won by favs (55.3)
141 won by dogs (44.3)
121 won by favs by more than 2 runs (38.5), now take away the -1.5 seattle games and the +1.5 TB games it will be a (35%)

Now here are yesterday numbers taking the scores and odds closing line.
St louis, Colorado,yankees, and white sox where the only favs that won by more than 2 runs. KC, Texas, Balt, Toronto, Padres, and Montreal won straight or lost by just 1 run.
so it was a 4-6 day for the -1.5 teams, but im pretty sure that mets, cubs and LA also received a plus1.5 run but i cant be sure because scores and odds close the line as pick, but i remember i got cubs +100, LA +120 and almost sure Florida was the -1.5 team, so the official results will be 4-9 (69%, a great number by the way LOL) pretty close to my 65% from April, but at the end is your choice.

PS. remember to take the +3 points with Milwaukee tomorrow it will be the straight winner i guarantee that, also bet a little (or a lot) on money line, seeya and good luck.

 

[BigDog]

Thanks for the great write-up. I concur with your 35% number for ALL favorites. I would never suggest to play the run line on ALL favorites...especially light favorites at -110 or -118. How many of the light favorites are included in your 53 games won by less than 2 runs? I would suspect them to be a large parcentage compared to the heavy(-160, -190, -225, etc.) favorites. Of course, there is no "line" to divide Heavy from light...these are subjective concepts, but I would use -150 as the benchmark. I do not have my sheets here at work, but I would be curious as to how the 4-6..or 9 would differ if you only considered -150 or heavier favorites.

Thanks again for your stats.

Dave

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Hey BigDog, nice disussion this one about the runline i like it a lot, specially beause i had been researching about it. About your question of the light favs I can?t answer I always told that i only take the -115 or bigger favs teams in the stats because on nss.net they dont have who was laying or getting the +1.5 but as all of us now always the fav is laying it, but on a
-110 it is impossible to me to know which team was laying it. Whoever here are some interesting numbers (again just from April), also i will like to say that i start researching about runline because i thought that it will be profitable to lay the -1.5 but i came to the conclusion that is better to get it than lay it.

April #?s
-120 teams 55 games favs 32 dogs 33 RL 22
-130 teams 50 games favs 29 dogs 21 RL 21
-140 teams 33 games favs 15 dogs 18 RL 12
-150 teams 36 games favs 21 dogs 14 RL 14
-160 teams 17 games favs 11 dogs 6 RL 7
-170 teams 27 games favs 15 dogs 12 RL 8
-180 teams 4 games favs 2 dogs 2 RL 2
-190 teams 7 games favs 3 dogs 4 RL 2
-200 teams 7 games favs 3 dogs 4 RL 1
-205 -250 teams 13 games favs 8 dogs 5 RL 6
-250+ teams 4 games favs 3 dogs 1 RL 2

The way to read it is:
When a team is favorite by X ML they have been X games favs had won X games and dogs X games on those favs wons the runline was a winner X times.

Hope this can help a little (or a lot).


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