Saints vs Vikings

bleedingpurple

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Vikes open as a 4 point Favorite

Rematch from week 1, who thought both of these teams would be squaring off in Divisional Playoff round? Both teams have their work cut out for them as the Saints lost to the Buccaneers and the Vikings are hosting the Super Bowl which are HUGE strikes against them. Just kidding if you have followed another thread, you know where I am going with this. Ok lets break this down

When the Saints have the ball.. They will be forced to pick on CB Trae Waynes, Rhodes will cover Thomas and since the Vikes play man to man you won't be seeing Thomas running across the field wide open like today. Kamara will be shadowed out of the backfield by Anthony Barr, so the Saints will have to run the ball effectively and pass to options outside of Thomas and Kamara for the most part. Big advantage for the Vikings and then they can effectively blitz Kendricks if they want to, or roll Sandejo and Harrison Smith wherever they like. Vikings also know Brees will not kill them with his legs and will be after him a lot as I expect the Saints to be passing. All this theory goes out the window if Saints establish a running game early but Vikes very stingy against the runs with a mental lapse from time to time.

When the Vikings have the ball, they will have to rely on the running game early to set up play action. Saints play a little of everything and from what I see the Saints blitz often. Vikes are really good at blitz pickup and Keenum was or is the #1 rated passer vs the Blitz. Do the Saints realize this and play coverage? ( What I would do.) The big question is Keenum, no playoff experience and he has looked less than spectacular of late but they aren't asking him to be..


Conclusion - I am going with the Vikings, I think their defense is much better than what the Saints can handle.. They held them to 19 week 1 and 7 of those points came in garbage time and another 3 were form bogus penalty. I know its been 4 months but the matchups are just in the Vikes favor.. Vikes offense will do enough provided Keenum doesn't implode and the Vikes O - Line has been very very good and now they are healthy.. Hope the Vikes aren't flat after the rest.. Oh also don't forget US BANK Stadium is a HUGE ADVANTAGE

VIKES 27 Saints 17

I am expecting this line to get below 4, public money will come in on the Saints...
 

Old School

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Old School

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solid writeup BP..

Saints gave up 450 yards of offense to Carolina in their own dome..........


:0002.........we be ready ............
 

HUDSON

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I don't see Ingram and Kamara getting shutdown 2 games in a row.....41 total rushing yards vs Carolina. Vikes D is stout, but these two will be determined to get back on track as Saints rushing attack has been their bread n butter all season. I think they both have big games. Gotta look into this one more.....
 

gjn23

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Queens
At home in the playoffs
Stellar reg season
Solid favorite in game
Nfc favorites to make super bowl
Shaky kicker
? Qb

What could possibly go wrong?
 

bleedingpurple

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I don't see Ingram and Kamara getting shutdown 2 games in a row.....41 total rushing yards vs Carolina. Vikes D is stout, but these two will be determined to get back on track as Saints rushing attack has been their bread n butter all season. I think they both have big games. Gotta look into this one more.....

not a chance they both have big games. Vikings shut down backs, could be wrong but Kamara in trouble
 

bleedingpurple

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Researching this game, I give the Vikes a 90 percent chance of winning and covering this game. The Vikes have advantages against the Saints everywhere on the field except QB.


VIKES ROLL
 

margwellus

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Researching this game, I give the Vikes a 90 percent chance of winning and covering this game. The Vikes have advantages against the Saints everywhere on the field except QB.


VIKES ROLL

said the most "objective" capper on this forum....:mj07:
 

JustFootball

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said the most "objective" capper on this forum....:mj07:

Actually, he is pretty objective. I recall several times during the regular season (and especially last season) that he either picked against the Vikings himself or recommended staying off them.
 

margwellus

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can you refute my analysis? if so I'm all ears.

Saints win I'll tip my cap

just ribbin' ya BP, i think your analysis is fairly spot on but i do have one piece of input that might be of concern to you and the VIKINGS backers. As I look at their schedule I see losses to Pittsburgh, Detroit and Carolina I'm trying to find the "quality" wins. Ok, they beat the Saints in week 1, barely got by Atlanta 14-9 and soundly beat the Rams, who proved they weren't really ready by flaming out last weekend. The Saints (especially Drew Brees) have been there before, have LOADS of weapons in the tandem of backs and first class receiver Michael Thomas. Yes, the Vikes have a stout defense but the Saints are much improved there as well. You're hanging your hat on Case Keenum? To quote a phrase "G'Luckburgh"....Vikes going to the Super Bowl when it's in their home town would be a great story (and I truly think the winner of this game will represent the NFC in Feb), but I wouldn't be so quick to write your ticket to next weekend's game. If I had to make a prediction I'd say something like a field goal or less, meaning I'd grab the four points (and will likely tease it on a bunch of 7 pointers with Atl, Pit and New England getting more breathing room), but for shits and giggles let's go with Saints 24-Vikings 23.
 

bleedingpurple

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just ribbin' ya BP, i think your analysis is fairly spot on but i do have one piece of input that might be of concern to you and the VIKINGS backers. As I look at their schedule I see losses to Pittsburgh, Detroit and Carolina I'm trying to find the "quality" wins. Ok, they beat the Saints in week 1, barely got by Atlanta 14-9 and soundly beat the Rams, who proved they weren't really ready by flaming out last weekend. The Saints (especially Drew Brees) have been there before, have LOADS of weapons in the tandem of backs and first class receiver Michael Thomas. Yes, the Vikes have a stout defense but the Saints are much improved there as well. You're hanging your hat on Case Keenum? To quote a phrase "G'Luckburgh"....Vikes going to the Super Bowl when it's in their home town would be a great story (and I truly think the winner of this game will represent the NFC in Feb), but I wouldn't be so quick to write your ticket to next weekend's game. If I had to make a prediction I'd say something like a field goal or less, meaning I'd grab the four points (and will likely tease it on a bunch of 7 pointers with Atl, Pit and New England getting more breathing room), but for shits and giggles let's go with Saints 24-Vikings 23.

Ok I get what you are saying but let's flip it around. where are the Saints quality wins? they beat carolina and Atlanta but lost to Rams and Vikes. they just lost to Tampa 2 weeks ago. Saints D is soft. Keenum still is the #7 rated passer in football and #1 vs blitz. reminds me of Rodgers going out to San Fran and getting ass kicked by Kap
 

gjn23

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Researching this game, I give the Vikes a 90 percent chance of winning and covering this game. The Vikes have advantages against the Saints everywhere on the field except QB.


VIKES ROLL

90%

That's funny.

Qbs and kickers.

Usually the queens downfall and gag job in playoffs.

Deep down....do you really....i mean REALLY.....trust case keenum over drew brees? And how tight will your ass get when kai farbath is called on for a game tying/winning kick?
 

bleedingpurple

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90%

That's funny.

Qbs and kickers.

Usually the queens downfall and gag job in playoffs.

Deep down....do you really....i mean REALLY.....trust case keenum over drew brees? And how tight will your ass get when kai farbath is called on for a game tying/winning kick?

yes i trust Keenum and I trust the defense the most. I dont trust Forbath but its not coming down to him
 

bleedingpurple

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90%

That's funny.

Qbs and kickers.

Usually the queens downfall and gag job in playoffs.

Deep down....do you really....i mean REALLY.....trust case keenum over drew brees? And how tight will your ass get when kai farbath is called on for a game tying/winning kick?

By your logic Packers should have kicked Kapernicks ass a few years back since the Pack had Rodgers. There is a reason the best qb in nfc hasnt been back to Super Bowl since 2010 and thats because football is a team game and the Vikes have a much better team than the Saints and K would also say they are the better coached team
 

bleedingpurple

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Researching this game, I give the Vikes a 90 percent chance of winning and covering this game. The Vikes have advantages against the Saints everywhere on the field except QB.

VIKES ROLL

Minnesota defense has good players across the board and throw quite a few great players. Brees is going to have pressure all day. They wont be able to run the ball. On third down Minnesota is the best in the league with only 25% conversion. Just for reference New Orleans is the fourth worse in the league at 40%. I dont want to hear about New Orleans defense.

On offense Minnesota is third in league in third down conversions at 43%......New Orleans is 19th at 37%. One of the biggest differences this year versus last year for Minnesota is the offense puts together drives as shown by the third down conversions. I have said this over and over.....the biggest factor is that it has kept the defense fresh and rested. Last year the defense almost gave up at the end of the year because the offensive line was so bad they never had any drives and the defense was on the field all the time. This year Minnesota is second in time of possession. It is a combination of the offense putting together drives and defense shutting down the opponents and giving it back to the offense.
..... posted by Northern Star
 
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