Sat. Service Plays 10/25/2008
- Thread starter quanjin
- Start date
Advance Analysis
Advance Analysis
College: 2* Ky UNLV Mid.Tenn. 1* Org. Ga. Kan.St. Tex.Tech N.F.L.: 1* Atl.
Advance Analysis
College: 2* Ky UNLV Mid.Tenn. 1* Org. Ga. Kan.St. Tex.Tech N.F.L.: 1* Atl.
- Apr 7, 2008
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Dr Bob
Rotation #154 Georgia Tech (-13) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars from -14 1/2 to -16 points.
Rotation #150 California (-17) 3-Stars at -20 or less, 2-Stars at -20 1/2 or -21.
Rotation #131 Mississippi (-5) 3-Stars at -6 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -7.
Rotation #142 Utah State (+16 1/2) 3-Stars at +14 or more, 2-Stars down to +10 1/2 points.
Rotation #146 Tennessee (+6) 2-Stars at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #104 West Virginia (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion at -4 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #180 Missouri (-23 1/2) Strong Opinion at -24 or less. 2-Star Best Bet at -23 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #182 Ohio State (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #174 Louisville (+4) Strong Opinion at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #126 Pittsburgh (-9 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #169 Wyoming (+31) Strong Opinion at +28 or more.
Rotation #154 Georgia Tech (-13) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars from -14 1/2 to -16 points.
Rotation #150 California (-17) 3-Stars at -20 or less, 2-Stars at -20 1/2 or -21.
Rotation #131 Mississippi (-5) 3-Stars at -6 1/2 or less, 2-Stars at -7.
Rotation #142 Utah State (+16 1/2) 3-Stars at +14 or more, 2-Stars down to +10 1/2 points.
Rotation #146 Tennessee (+6) 2-Stars at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #104 West Virginia (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion at -4 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #180 Missouri (-23 1/2) Strong Opinion at -24 or less. 2-Star Best Bet at -23 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #182 Ohio State (+2 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #174 Louisville (+4) Strong Opinion at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #126 Pittsburgh (-9 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #169 Wyoming (+31) Strong Opinion at +28 or more.
- Apr 7, 2008
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bettorsworld
2* Uconn +3 over Cincinnati - Lot's of similarities between these two Big East Teams. Cinci has had QB problems this year while Uconn will likely be down to their 3rd stringer Saturday as Zach Frazer looks doubtful as of this writing. (Pike will go for Cinci) Both teams are stingy on the defensive side of the ball and both teams have had similar results against similar competition. If Cinci has an edge it's in the kicking game as they sport some of the best punting numbers in the country. Likewise, the field goal kicking, where Uconn kicker Tony Ciaravino has been benched after missing a 42 yarder with under two minutes to play at Rutgers which would have given the Huskies the win.
Uconn became "good" in 2003. It's when everything came together for the program and they officially "arrived" on the scene. In that time, 2003 to the present, one thing has remained constant. Uconn has performed poorly on the road yet has been fantastic at home. 2003 was the only year they had a winning road record, going 4-2. Every year since, they have lost on the road. Yet at home, they have been one of the better teams in the entire nation, going 28-7 since 2003. In that time they have been an underdog 16 times, going 11-5 against the number. It's safe to say that Uconn has a significant home field advantage. Uconn returns home this week after 3 straight games on the road........there's no place like home.
Throw in some added motivation to go along with the home field edge and we have the makings of a nice spot for Uconn. That added motivation comes in the form of Uconn having never beaten Cinci. They are 0-4 against the Bearcats with last year being perhaps the worst loss of all as Uconn went to Cinci ranked #16 in the Nation and left with their tail between their legs in a 27-3 loss.
Cinci QB Tony Pike is coming back this week after breaking his non throwing arm. He may have picked the wrong week as Uconn has done a great job getting after the QB with 18 sacks on the year. Count on Pike getting rattled this week. It's tough to come back with that kind of an injury and not worry about getting reinjured. Especially after you find yourself on your back a few times.
Ultimately we don't think this game will be decided by the QB's but rather, the running games and the defensive side of the ball. On a neutral field we'd rate this game dead even. The intangibles mentioned above put Uconn over the top here, with their fantastic home field play, and the added incentive for Coach Edsall and the Juniors and Seniors on this Uconn Team. If it comes down to a last second field goal, we'll be crossing our fingers with Uconn using a new Freshman kicker this week, but we'll take our chances. Watch the number. We like the Huskies straight up here. But if/when they announce for sure that Zach Frazer won't play, you're likely to see an overreaction with the line. Currently there are a few +3's out there and you're likely to see more soon. 2* Uconn +3
2* Penn State -2.5 over Ohio State - There's alot more on the line this week in Columbus than just a football game. This game of course has Big 10 Title ramifications, but on the larger scale, has major significance on the National scene. A loss by Penn State would be a knock on the entire Big 10 Conference. If that happens, all you'll hear about is how the Big 10 is a weak conference that deserves no recognition or credit when talking National Title game. They'll say that Ohio State couldn't compete with USC, and then Penn State lost to Ohio State.......well, you get the picture and you know what? They'd be 100% correct. As it is, even if Penn State wins big, they are still going to be criticized for schedule strength. A look at either one of these two teams schedules is enough to make you yawn. This week will be the toughest game for both of these teams all year long. A Penn State win here and we're likely looking at Penn State undefeated and in the Title game. Imagine that, Joe Pa going out with the crown. That would be a story that even Hollywood couldn't have come up with. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.
This weeks game will likely be decided in the trenches which is why we like our chances with the Paternos. Both the offensive and defensive lines for Penn State have been playing great, dominating opponents while Ohio State might have some problems, particularly on the offensive line where they have suffered some injuries and start a freshman at center. Last year Penn State didn't force Ohio State to punt once. This year we think it will be a little different.
The skilled positions get all the glory. But it's the trenches that decide games like these, particularly in the Big 10 and we feel Penn State has the edge here on both sides of the ball. We'd also give them the edge at QB. Penn State did have some trouble with Juice Williams when they faced Illinois but as the game went on, they were able to slow him down. The stage may be a little too big this week for Ohio States Terrelle Pryor. His production went down every game until his big blowout performance against Mich State last week but this will be his biggest test to date for sure. He figures to be on his heels and off to the races quite a bit this week and if Penn State can contain him, it's game over. Cut off the head and the tail will follow.
We also have some additional motivational factors here. How about revenge times 7. That's how many times Ohio State has beaten JoePa in Columbus since Penn State joined the Big 10. They have also beaten Penn State the last two times they have played including last years dominating effort. Big game for JoePa. Big game for the Penn State Juniors and Seniors.
Penn State has been the better team this year. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball and have a fantastically balanced offense. Ohio State has struggled at times, has some injuries on the lines, and in our opinion, still has a question mark at QB. Pryor hasn't seen anything close to what he'll see Saturday Night. This is simply a matter of backing the better football team, which should be enough to overcome the Ohio State home field advantage. A quick score or two shuts up 100,000 people pretty damn fast. You should be able to do better than -2.5 by game time. As always, watch the number. 2* Penn State -2.5 or better
2* Georgia +2 over LSU - It's pretty much a curse for any team to be ranked #1 in the pre season polls which is where Georgia found themselves before the season started. It's just about impossible to live up to those lofty expectations, especially when every team you face brings their "A" game as they gun for number one. Georgia is a good football team. Not great. But if last year is any indication, this team figures to get better and better as each week goes by. Remember, last year they started 4-2 and looked average at best in doing so. Then they caught fire and ripped through the 2nd have of their schedule capped off by that blowout of Hawaii in the Bowl game, all of which earned this team that pre season #1. Also remember that this is pretty much the same team. What better way to start the stretch run than with a win over the defending National Champs?
A look at these two teams body of work to date shows us they are very similar. Both were blown out by better teams. For LSU is was Florida while Alabama waxed Georgia. Otherwise, we see some big wins against weak teams, and some mediocre performances against some stiffer SEC competition. Neither team has had that break out performance. But it's Georgia that edges out LSU in many important categories. They are number one in the SEC in passing offense, total offense and rushing defense. (LSU is 5th in the SEC in rushing defense)
Georgia has a young offensive line that has had some injuries this year but they have held their own. In watching both teams this year, we have been less impressed with LSU. We simply feel Georgia is the better all around team here team here and the stats would seem to back us up. LSU has been a great team at home over the years (have won 30 straight at home on Saturdays) but Georgia has played some of it's best football under Mark Richt on the road as they have been one of the best road teams in the nation year after year. They are 9-2 under Richt, on the road against ranked teams. Not too shabby eh? A win here puts Georgia back in the mix as far as the big picture goes, a place where many thought they should be before the season started. This week and next will determine that as next up for the Bulldogs is Florida. Ouch. Talk about a 1-2 punch. Georgia has the talent and track record to get by LSU this week setting up a huge game next week with the Gators. 2* Georgia +2
2* Uconn +3 over Cincinnati - Lot's of similarities between these two Big East Teams. Cinci has had QB problems this year while Uconn will likely be down to their 3rd stringer Saturday as Zach Frazer looks doubtful as of this writing. (Pike will go for Cinci) Both teams are stingy on the defensive side of the ball and both teams have had similar results against similar competition. If Cinci has an edge it's in the kicking game as they sport some of the best punting numbers in the country. Likewise, the field goal kicking, where Uconn kicker Tony Ciaravino has been benched after missing a 42 yarder with under two minutes to play at Rutgers which would have given the Huskies the win.
Uconn became "good" in 2003. It's when everything came together for the program and they officially "arrived" on the scene. In that time, 2003 to the present, one thing has remained constant. Uconn has performed poorly on the road yet has been fantastic at home. 2003 was the only year they had a winning road record, going 4-2. Every year since, they have lost on the road. Yet at home, they have been one of the better teams in the entire nation, going 28-7 since 2003. In that time they have been an underdog 16 times, going 11-5 against the number. It's safe to say that Uconn has a significant home field advantage. Uconn returns home this week after 3 straight games on the road........there's no place like home.
Throw in some added motivation to go along with the home field edge and we have the makings of a nice spot for Uconn. That added motivation comes in the form of Uconn having never beaten Cinci. They are 0-4 against the Bearcats with last year being perhaps the worst loss of all as Uconn went to Cinci ranked #16 in the Nation and left with their tail between their legs in a 27-3 loss.
Cinci QB Tony Pike is coming back this week after breaking his non throwing arm. He may have picked the wrong week as Uconn has done a great job getting after the QB with 18 sacks on the year. Count on Pike getting rattled this week. It's tough to come back with that kind of an injury and not worry about getting reinjured. Especially after you find yourself on your back a few times.
Ultimately we don't think this game will be decided by the QB's but rather, the running games and the defensive side of the ball. On a neutral field we'd rate this game dead even. The intangibles mentioned above put Uconn over the top here, with their fantastic home field play, and the added incentive for Coach Edsall and the Juniors and Seniors on this Uconn Team. If it comes down to a last second field goal, we'll be crossing our fingers with Uconn using a new Freshman kicker this week, but we'll take our chances. Watch the number. We like the Huskies straight up here. But if/when they announce for sure that Zach Frazer won't play, you're likely to see an overreaction with the line. Currently there are a few +3's out there and you're likely to see more soon. 2* Uconn +3
2* Penn State -2.5 over Ohio State - There's alot more on the line this week in Columbus than just a football game. This game of course has Big 10 Title ramifications, but on the larger scale, has major significance on the National scene. A loss by Penn State would be a knock on the entire Big 10 Conference. If that happens, all you'll hear about is how the Big 10 is a weak conference that deserves no recognition or credit when talking National Title game. They'll say that Ohio State couldn't compete with USC, and then Penn State lost to Ohio State.......well, you get the picture and you know what? They'd be 100% correct. As it is, even if Penn State wins big, they are still going to be criticized for schedule strength. A look at either one of these two teams schedules is enough to make you yawn. This week will be the toughest game for both of these teams all year long. A Penn State win here and we're likely looking at Penn State undefeated and in the Title game. Imagine that, Joe Pa going out with the crown. That would be a story that even Hollywood couldn't have come up with. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.
This weeks game will likely be decided in the trenches which is why we like our chances with the Paternos. Both the offensive and defensive lines for Penn State have been playing great, dominating opponents while Ohio State might have some problems, particularly on the offensive line where they have suffered some injuries and start a freshman at center. Last year Penn State didn't force Ohio State to punt once. This year we think it will be a little different.
The skilled positions get all the glory. But it's the trenches that decide games like these, particularly in the Big 10 and we feel Penn State has the edge here on both sides of the ball. We'd also give them the edge at QB. Penn State did have some trouble with Juice Williams when they faced Illinois but as the game went on, they were able to slow him down. The stage may be a little too big this week for Ohio States Terrelle Pryor. His production went down every game until his big blowout performance against Mich State last week but this will be his biggest test to date for sure. He figures to be on his heels and off to the races quite a bit this week and if Penn State can contain him, it's game over. Cut off the head and the tail will follow.
We also have some additional motivational factors here. How about revenge times 7. That's how many times Ohio State has beaten JoePa in Columbus since Penn State joined the Big 10. They have also beaten Penn State the last two times they have played including last years dominating effort. Big game for JoePa. Big game for the Penn State Juniors and Seniors.
Penn State has been the better team this year. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball and have a fantastically balanced offense. Ohio State has struggled at times, has some injuries on the lines, and in our opinion, still has a question mark at QB. Pryor hasn't seen anything close to what he'll see Saturday Night. This is simply a matter of backing the better football team, which should be enough to overcome the Ohio State home field advantage. A quick score or two shuts up 100,000 people pretty damn fast. You should be able to do better than -2.5 by game time. As always, watch the number. 2* Penn State -2.5 or better
2* Georgia +2 over LSU - It's pretty much a curse for any team to be ranked #1 in the pre season polls which is where Georgia found themselves before the season started. It's just about impossible to live up to those lofty expectations, especially when every team you face brings their "A" game as they gun for number one. Georgia is a good football team. Not great. But if last year is any indication, this team figures to get better and better as each week goes by. Remember, last year they started 4-2 and looked average at best in doing so. Then they caught fire and ripped through the 2nd have of their schedule capped off by that blowout of Hawaii in the Bowl game, all of which earned this team that pre season #1. Also remember that this is pretty much the same team. What better way to start the stretch run than with a win over the defending National Champs?
A look at these two teams body of work to date shows us they are very similar. Both were blown out by better teams. For LSU is was Florida while Alabama waxed Georgia. Otherwise, we see some big wins against weak teams, and some mediocre performances against some stiffer SEC competition. Neither team has had that break out performance. But it's Georgia that edges out LSU in many important categories. They are number one in the SEC in passing offense, total offense and rushing defense. (LSU is 5th in the SEC in rushing defense)
Georgia has a young offensive line that has had some injuries this year but they have held their own. In watching both teams this year, we have been less impressed with LSU. We simply feel Georgia is the better all around team here team here and the stats would seem to back us up. LSU has been a great team at home over the years (have won 30 straight at home on Saturdays) but Georgia has played some of it's best football under Mark Richt on the road as they have been one of the best road teams in the nation year after year. They are 9-2 under Richt, on the road against ranked teams. Not too shabby eh? A win here puts Georgia back in the mix as far as the big picture goes, a place where many thought they should be before the season started. This week and next will determine that as next up for the Bulldogs is Florida. Ouch. Talk about a 1-2 punch. Georgia has the talent and track record to get by LSU this week setting up a huge game next week with the Gators. 2* Georgia +2
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Scott Ferrall
NCAA Football Free Picks FREE B's:
MIAMI FLA -3 to Wake--The CANES can win this game and they've been putting points on the board of late
S.FLA -4.5 to Louisville--the Bullas are 6-1 and know how to get W's. They can win this game on the road in conference
NEBRASKA -10.5 to Baylor--The Huskers should handle the Bears in Lincoln and win their second straight
PENN ST -2 to Ohio St--The Nittany Lions are playing bettter football than the Buckeyes and win this game by 3-7 points
NOTRE DAME -11.5 to Washington--the Huskies can't beat anybody and the Irish should roll. Wash gives up big points every week
NCAA Football Free Picks FREE B's:
MIAMI FLA -3 to Wake--The CANES can win this game and they've been putting points on the board of late
S.FLA -4.5 to Louisville--the Bullas are 6-1 and know how to get W's. They can win this game on the road in conference
NEBRASKA -10.5 to Baylor--The Huskers should handle the Bears in Lincoln and win their second straight
PENN ST -2 to Ohio St--The Nittany Lions are playing bettter football than the Buckeyes and win this game by 3-7 points
NOTRE DAME -11.5 to Washington--the Huskies can't beat anybody and the Irish should roll. Wash gives up big points every week
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WILD BILL
Boston College +3 (5 units)
Mississippi -5 (5 units)
Ball St -24 (5 units)
Oregon -4 (5 units)
Alabama -6 1/2 (5 units)
Ga Tech -11 1/2 (5 units)
Okla St +13 (5 units)
Texas Tech +2 1/2 (5 units)
TCU -31 (5 units)
Florida St -4 (5 units)
N Illinois -8 (5 units)
C Michigan -3 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St -1 1/2 (5 units)
Notre Dame -11 1/2 (5 units)
Middle Tenn +11 1/2 (5 units)
UL Monroe +2 (5 units)
Troy -24 1/2 (5 units)
Over 46 1/2 Md-NC State (5 units)
Over 47 1/2 Ky-Florida (5 units)
Over 53 Miss-Ark (5 units)
Over 41 1/2 Tenn-Alabama (5 units)
Under 51 Cal-UCLA (5 units)
Over 71 Ok State-Texas (5 units)
Over 57 C Mich-Toledo (5 units)
TOTAL OF YEAR: Over 42 1/2 TCU-Wyoming (10 UNITS)
Boston College +3 (5 units)
Mississippi -5 (5 units)
Ball St -24 (5 units)
Oregon -4 (5 units)
Alabama -6 1/2 (5 units)
Ga Tech -11 1/2 (5 units)
Okla St +13 (5 units)
Texas Tech +2 1/2 (5 units)
TCU -31 (5 units)
Florida St -4 (5 units)
N Illinois -8 (5 units)
C Michigan -3 1/2 (5 units)
Penn St -1 1/2 (5 units)
Notre Dame -11 1/2 (5 units)
Middle Tenn +11 1/2 (5 units)
UL Monroe +2 (5 units)
Troy -24 1/2 (5 units)
Over 46 1/2 Md-NC State (5 units)
Over 47 1/2 Ky-Florida (5 units)
Over 53 Miss-Ark (5 units)
Over 41 1/2 Tenn-Alabama (5 units)
Under 51 Cal-UCLA (5 units)
Over 71 Ok State-Texas (5 units)
Over 57 C Mich-Toledo (5 units)
TOTAL OF YEAR: Over 42 1/2 TCU-Wyoming (10 UNITS)
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Sat, 10/25/08 - 3:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side
triple-dime bet157 Georgia 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 158 LSU
Analysis:
***3 UNIT UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH***
Sat, 10/25/08 - 12:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
double-dime bet178 Kansas / 177 Texas Tech Over 66.0 BetUS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come
triple-dime bet157 Georgia 2.0 (-110) Bodog vs 158 LSU
Analysis:
***3 UNIT UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH***
Sat, 10/25/08 - 12:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
double-dime bet178 Kansas / 177 Texas Tech Over 66.0 BetUS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come
- Apr 7, 2008
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This is all I have for Spreitzer. I am not sure if a 25* is a GOY for him or not
Spreitzer 25*- Wake Forest
Anyone have these plays for Sat.? Thanks in advance.
Anyone have these plays for Sat.? Thanks in advance.
Scott Spreitzer
25* SUN NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR
25* MORNING MASSACRE
CONF REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
TAILOR-MADE BEATDOWN GOM
Big Al McMordie
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ROADKILL
NCAA CONF. GAME OF THE YEAR
COLLEGE FB SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR
3-GAME NCAA FB PACKAGE
John Ryan
or
Root
Anyone have these plays for Sat.? Thanks in advance.
Scott Spreitzer
25* SUN NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR
25* MORNING MASSACRE
CONF REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
TAILOR-MADE BEATDOWN GOM
Big Al McMordie
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ROADKILL
NCAA CONF. GAME OF THE YEAR
COLLEGE FB SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR
3-GAME NCAA FB PACKAGE
John Ryan
or
Root
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BEN BURNS
RIVALRY GAME OF YEAR
I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. Look for them to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset. *Rivalry GOY
RIVALRY GAME OF YEAR
I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. Look for them to take this game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the upset. *Rivalry GOY
BEN BURNS
ANNIHILATOR
I'm playing on PURDUE. The betting public is really down on the Boilermakers and view them as under-achievers. However, that's only somewhat accurate. A closer look shows that the Boilermakers have actually pretty much done as expected. They've won the games in which they were favored and they've lost the games in which they were underdogs. Their four home games have come against Northern Colorado, Central Michigan, Oregon and Penn State. They won the first two and were competitive in both the other two. While they've admittedly played pretty well this season, the Gophers still represent a significant step down in class from either Oregon or Penn State and I believe that they provide an excellent matchup for the Boilermakers. I believe emotion is an extremely important factor when handicapping college sports and I feel that the Boilermakers and particularly QB Painter will come in with something to prove this week. Painter got benched last week but had to come back in when his backup got hurt. Not only that but running back Kory Sheets has been openly critical of Painter. While Painter has struggled this season, he's still more than capable. Don't forget that he's second all-time in the conference with 919 completions. Perhaps more importantly, note that Painter was 33-for-48 for 338 yards with three touchdowns against Minnesota last season. This week, he'll face a Minnesota defense which allowed more than yards last time out. Recent events have provided Painter with plenty of motivation and last year's performance against the Gophers should give him the confidence to know that he can get it done again this afternoon. While the Boilermakers come in absolutely desperate for a victory, I feel the Gophers will be ripe for a letdown. That's because they've had two weeks to pat themselves on the back after their huge upset win at Illinois and they even earned a national ranking in the process. While certainly better than last year's 1-11 team, I'm not convinced that Minnesota is deserving of their top 25 ranking. The win at Illinois was their only really "impressive" victory and I've already noted that the Gophers gave up more than 500 yards in that game. A closer look shows that they were outgained by a whopping 550-312 count in that game. The only other Big 10 team that they beat this season was Indiana and the Hoosiers are 0-5 their last five games with their only two wins on the season coming vs. Western Kentucky and Murray State. Minnesota's other victories came against teams from the MAC, Sun Belt and Big Sky Conferences. Both the Gophers and Boilermakers lost by 13 vs. Ohio State. However, the Boilermakers have also taken on the likes of Penn State, Oregon and Notre Dame. The Boilermakers are a perfect 7-0 their last seven home games against the Gophers. Look for Painter to bounce back with a big effort and for them to keep that streak in tact for Tiller to retire with. *Annihilator
ANNIHILATOR
I'm playing on PURDUE. The betting public is really down on the Boilermakers and view them as under-achievers. However, that's only somewhat accurate. A closer look shows that the Boilermakers have actually pretty much done as expected. They've won the games in which they were favored and they've lost the games in which they were underdogs. Their four home games have come against Northern Colorado, Central Michigan, Oregon and Penn State. They won the first two and were competitive in both the other two. While they've admittedly played pretty well this season, the Gophers still represent a significant step down in class from either Oregon or Penn State and I believe that they provide an excellent matchup for the Boilermakers. I believe emotion is an extremely important factor when handicapping college sports and I feel that the Boilermakers and particularly QB Painter will come in with something to prove this week. Painter got benched last week but had to come back in when his backup got hurt. Not only that but running back Kory Sheets has been openly critical of Painter. While Painter has struggled this season, he's still more than capable. Don't forget that he's second all-time in the conference with 919 completions. Perhaps more importantly, note that Painter was 33-for-48 for 338 yards with three touchdowns against Minnesota last season. This week, he'll face a Minnesota defense which allowed more than yards last time out. Recent events have provided Painter with plenty of motivation and last year's performance against the Gophers should give him the confidence to know that he can get it done again this afternoon. While the Boilermakers come in absolutely desperate for a victory, I feel the Gophers will be ripe for a letdown. That's because they've had two weeks to pat themselves on the back after their huge upset win at Illinois and they even earned a national ranking in the process. While certainly better than last year's 1-11 team, I'm not convinced that Minnesota is deserving of their top 25 ranking. The win at Illinois was their only really "impressive" victory and I've already noted that the Gophers gave up more than 500 yards in that game. A closer look shows that they were outgained by a whopping 550-312 count in that game. The only other Big 10 team that they beat this season was Indiana and the Hoosiers are 0-5 their last five games with their only two wins on the season coming vs. Western Kentucky and Murray State. Minnesota's other victories came against teams from the MAC, Sun Belt and Big Sky Conferences. Both the Gophers and Boilermakers lost by 13 vs. Ohio State. However, the Boilermakers have also taken on the likes of Penn State, Oregon and Notre Dame. The Boilermakers are a perfect 7-0 their last seven home games against the Gophers. Look for Painter to bounce back with a big effort and for them to keep that streak in tact for Tiller to retire with. *Annihilator
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm taking the points with OHIO STATE. The Nittany Lions come in with the higher ranking and as the favored team. That's because the Buckeyes lost at USC though and the Nittany Lions haven't played at any venues that difficult. Additionally, the Buckeyes are a much improved team now from the one which was blown out in Southern California. Indeed, the combo of Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells has quickly emerged as one of the most dangerous duos in the country. Pryor, the most highly touted high school recruit in the country, is dangerous with both his legs and his arm. As receiver Brian Robiskie noted: "When Terrelle is clicking, he can do a little bit of everything. He's scary in the open field." Meanwhile, Wells has rushed for more than 500 yards in four games since coming back. This week, he'll be running against a Penn State defense which surrendered more than 200 yards on the ground to Michigan last week. The Nittany Lions are 0-7 here since joining the Big-10 and they haven't won at Ohio Stadium in 30 years. Penn State is also 0-10 on the road against AP Top 25 opponents over the past six years. While the Nittany Lions have struggled on the road against top tier opponents, the Buckeyes tend to elevate their game against other ranked programs. That's particularly the case when playing at home against fellow Big 10 foes. Indeed, the Buckeyes have won 12 of their last 13 conference home games against ranked opponents. While I expect the Buckeyes to win outright, it's worth noting that the line has climbed from it's opener, giving us some additional value. It's also worth mentioning that Penn State is 1 -5 ATS (2-4 SU) the last six times it played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. During the same span, Ohio State is 4-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. While the Nittany Lions are 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 conference games, the Buckeyes are 13-7 ATS, going 19-1 SU. Look for them to continue that dominance this evening. *Big 10 Main Event
MAIN EVENT
I'm taking the points with OHIO STATE. The Nittany Lions come in with the higher ranking and as the favored team. That's because the Buckeyes lost at USC though and the Nittany Lions haven't played at any venues that difficult. Additionally, the Buckeyes are a much improved team now from the one which was blown out in Southern California. Indeed, the combo of Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells has quickly emerged as one of the most dangerous duos in the country. Pryor, the most highly touted high school recruit in the country, is dangerous with both his legs and his arm. As receiver Brian Robiskie noted: "When Terrelle is clicking, he can do a little bit of everything. He's scary in the open field." Meanwhile, Wells has rushed for more than 500 yards in four games since coming back. This week, he'll be running against a Penn State defense which surrendered more than 200 yards on the ground to Michigan last week. The Nittany Lions are 0-7 here since joining the Big-10 and they haven't won at Ohio Stadium in 30 years. Penn State is also 0-10 on the road against AP Top 25 opponents over the past six years. While the Nittany Lions have struggled on the road against top tier opponents, the Buckeyes tend to elevate their game against other ranked programs. That's particularly the case when playing at home against fellow Big 10 foes. Indeed, the Buckeyes have won 12 of their last 13 conference home games against ranked opponents. While I expect the Buckeyes to win outright, it's worth noting that the line has climbed from it's opener, giving us some additional value. It's also worth mentioning that Penn State is 1 -5 ATS (2-4 SU) the last six times it played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. During the same span, Ohio State is 4-0 SU/ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. While the Nittany Lions are 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 conference games, the Buckeyes are 13-7 ATS, going 19-1 SU. Look for them to continue that dominance this evening. *Big 10 Main Event
BEN BURNS
BIG GAME ALERT
I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO STATE. Not many bettors are willing to back a team that gave up 70 points in its last game. Therefore, very few are willing to touch the Aztecs here as they got crushed 70-7 by New Mexico last week. Granted, that was pretty brutal. However, that result works in ouu favor here. For starters, with nobody wanting to play on them, we're getting excellent line value on the Aztecs here. Additionally, the fact that they got embarrassed so badly last week should ensure that they play extra hard this week. Further motivation will be provided by the fact that this is arguably the best chance at earning a victory in conference play. That's because their next two games are on the road and then they face a very strong Utah team after that. That means that the Aztecs know if they don't win this week, that they'll likely be waiting until their season finale to get another shot at a victory. That game comes against UNLV and the Rebels can also be tough. Despite the fact that they got destroyed last week, the Aztecs should bring some confidence into this week's game. For starters, the Rams were also beaten badly (49-16) last week. More importantly, they know that they went into Fort Collins and defeated the Rams outright last season. In fact, despite being underdogs in each game, the Aztecs are 3-0 SU against the Rams the past three seasons, including a 17-6 victory the last time the teams met here at San Diego. Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild noted: "... It's traditionally been hard place for Colorado State to play. This is not going to be an easy game by any stretch of imagination..." Yes, the Aztecs have had trouble stopping the run. The Colorado State defense has also struggled though, giving up well over 500 yards last week. Aztecs QB Ryan Lindley has had a week to get healthier and he should enjoy success against a highly supsect Rams' secondary. After missing the Air Force game with a slight separation in his throwing shoulder, Lindley didn't get many reps before returning to action against the Lobos. The Rams, who are playing their second straight road game, have yet to win away from home this season. They're 5-15 their last 20 games on the road overall and four of those five games came by 12 points or less. Keep in mind that the Rams needed a late fumble recovery and a field goal at the buzzer to defeat 1-AA Sacramento State earlier this season. The point that I am trying to make is that the Rams are far from a dominant team and that I don't feel they deserve to be laying this many points on the road, even against struggling San Diego State. While the Rams are 1-7 ATS the last eight times that they played the second of back-to-back road games, the Aztecs are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they played at home after playing on the road the previous week. Overall, the Aztecs are 11-6 ATS their last 17 home lined games. Fighting to save Chuck Long's job, look for them to bounce back with a huge effort, earning at least another cover. *MWC GOY
BIG GAME ALERT
I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO STATE. Not many bettors are willing to back a team that gave up 70 points in its last game. Therefore, very few are willing to touch the Aztecs here as they got crushed 70-7 by New Mexico last week. Granted, that was pretty brutal. However, that result works in ouu favor here. For starters, with nobody wanting to play on them, we're getting excellent line value on the Aztecs here. Additionally, the fact that they got embarrassed so badly last week should ensure that they play extra hard this week. Further motivation will be provided by the fact that this is arguably the best chance at earning a victory in conference play. That's because their next two games are on the road and then they face a very strong Utah team after that. That means that the Aztecs know if they don't win this week, that they'll likely be waiting until their season finale to get another shot at a victory. That game comes against UNLV and the Rebels can also be tough. Despite the fact that they got destroyed last week, the Aztecs should bring some confidence into this week's game. For starters, the Rams were also beaten badly (49-16) last week. More importantly, they know that they went into Fort Collins and defeated the Rams outright last season. In fact, despite being underdogs in each game, the Aztecs are 3-0 SU against the Rams the past three seasons, including a 17-6 victory the last time the teams met here at San Diego. Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild noted: "... It's traditionally been hard place for Colorado State to play. This is not going to be an easy game by any stretch of imagination..." Yes, the Aztecs have had trouble stopping the run. The Colorado State defense has also struggled though, giving up well over 500 yards last week. Aztecs QB Ryan Lindley has had a week to get healthier and he should enjoy success against a highly supsect Rams' secondary. After missing the Air Force game with a slight separation in his throwing shoulder, Lindley didn't get many reps before returning to action against the Lobos. The Rams, who are playing their second straight road game, have yet to win away from home this season. They're 5-15 their last 20 games on the road overall and four of those five games came by 12 points or less. Keep in mind that the Rams needed a late fumble recovery and a field goal at the buzzer to defeat 1-AA Sacramento State earlier this season. The point that I am trying to make is that the Rams are far from a dominant team and that I don't feel they deserve to be laying this many points on the road, even against struggling San Diego State. While the Rams are 1-7 ATS the last eight times that they played the second of back-to-back road games, the Aztecs are 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they played at home after playing on the road the previous week. Overall, the Aztecs are 11-6 ATS their last 17 home lined games. Fighting to save Chuck Long's job, look for them to bounce back with a huge effort, earning at least another cover. *MWC GOY
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DR. BOB
3 Star Selection
***UTAH ST. 30 Fresno St. (-16.5) 34
Fresno State was expected to be a good team and were anointed as a possible BCS buster by media "experts". A win over Rutgers to start the season, followed by a close home loss to a Wisconsin team rated in the top 10 added to the misconception that the Bulldogs were a good team. Turns out that Rutgers is a bad team and that Wisconsin is now 3-4 and falling fast. Fresno's other wins have been an overtime win against 2-5 Toledo, a 5 point win against a mediocre 3-4 UCLA team and a 46-32 win as a 34 point favorite against an Idaho team that may be the worst in Division 1A. Fresno State is 0-5 ATS since their season opening win over Rutgers and the Bulldogs' very good offense (6.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) is balanced out by a horrible defense that has allowed an average of 37 points and 6.3 yppl in 4 games since losing run-stuffing defensive lineman Jon Monga early in their week 4 game against Toledo ? to 4 bad offensive teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Fresno generally has good talent among their starters, but their lack of depth along the defensive line has hurt them for a second consecutive season (they went from decent to horrible defensively last season after losing some defensive line starters in week 5). Utah State is a bad offensive team, averaging just 4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl against an average team, but they are considerably better than Fresno State's defense and Aggie's running quarterback Diondre Borel and backs Turbin and Marsh (444 combined yards at 4.7 ypr) should feast on a Fresno defensive front that can't stop the run ? the Bulldogs have allowed 237 yards at 6.3 yards per rushing play since losing Monga despite facing teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team. Fresno will certainly score a good number of points too against a sub-par Utah State defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average, but my math model favors Fresno by just 7 ? points in this game and the Bulldogs are not to be trusted laying points when they are not playing well. The Bulldogs are just 11-25-2 ATS under Pat Hill as a favorite of 2 points or more following a point spread loss, including 0-4 ATS this season and 4-19-1 ATS since 2002. Fresno also applies to a negative 34-83-2 ATS big road favorite off a bye week angle that has won 9 consecutive times for the home dog. I'll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 2-Stars from +13 ? to +10 ? points.
3 Star Selection
***GEORGIA TECH (-13.0) 33 Virginia 10
Virginia appears to be getting better and enters this game riding a 3 game win steak despite being an underdog in each game. I've been on the Cavaliers in recent weeks at home, but their recent improvement is most likely a function of playing 3 consecutive home game rather than Virginia being a good team. Virginia has always played better at home under Al Groh (32-15 ATS, 29-12 not favored by more than 23 points) than they've played on the road (14-27 ATS). The Cavaliers have also been better with revenge (22-6 ATS) under Groh than they have been when the other team has the revenge motive (16-25 ATS in those games). And, Groh's team has been much better after a loss (23-12 ATS) than they have after a good game (15-22 ATS after a win and spread win). History is certainly not on the side of Virginia today, as they are on the road after 3 consecutive win and covers against a superior team that they happened to have beaten last season. Virginia is just 6-20-1 ATS on the road against a team with revenge and a horrendous 1-18 ATS on the road after a game in which they won and covered the spread (1-16 ATS under Groh). Virginia's only two road games this season resulted in a blowout losses against mediocre teams Connecticut (10-45) and Duke (3-31) and Georgia Tech is much better than either of those teams. Virginia does look like an improved team since getting blown out by USC to start the season and they are certainly better offensively now that top back Cedric Peerman is healthy. Peerman has rushed for 327 yards the last 3 weeks and is averaging 6.0 ypr for the season, but I still rate Virginia's offense at 0.5 yards per play worse than average and the Cavaliers were 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively in their 3 game home winning streak. That attack doesn't figure to move the ball very well against a Georgia Tech defense that has allowed just 12.0 points per game and 4.1 yppl in 5 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 23 points and 5.1 yppl against an average team. Georgia Tech's triple option offense has also been very good, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged 6.1 yppl in 5 Division 1A games against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Georgia Tech's offense may be underrated because they struggled to move the ball in a 10-7 win over Gardner-Webb a couple of weeks ago, but the Yellow Jackets' top 2 quarterbacks were held out of that game and the option attack was run by a traditional drop back passer with limited mobility and no experience running the option. Georgia Tech has also lost 8 fumbles in 5 1A games, which has kept them from scoring as much as they should be scoring given how well they move the ball (although they've still averaged 24.4 points in those games against teams that would allow just 19.7 points per game to an average team). Virginia Tech's defense was overwhelmed in their opener against USC and I decided to throw those stats out. Since that game the Cavaliers have been 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but they have been just average defending the run (4.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp) and that is a problem in this game. Georgia Tech has faced just one 1A team that is not good defending the run and the Jackets ran for 439 yards at 8.3 yprp in that game against a Mississippi State defense that is actually slightly better defending the run than Virginia is. The line on this game should be much higher and my math model gives the Yellow Jackets a 59.6% chance of covering at -11 ? points. That doesn't include how poorly Virginia plays on the road after a win and cover, which makes Georgia Tech an even higher percentage play. I'll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and 2-Stars from -14 ? to -16 points.
3 Star Selection
***CALIFORNIA (-17.0) 38 UCLA 10
Cal struggled last week against a good Arizona squad in Tucson, but the Bears should bounce back from their one bad defensive game of the year by shutting down a sub-par UCLA offense today. Prior to last week, the Golden Bears' top-notch defensive unit had not allowed more than 5.1 yards per play to any team (they allowed 6.3 yppl to Arizona) and they have still yielded just 4.4 yppl for the season against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Cal has faced just 3 below average offensive teams in Washington State and Colorado State and the Bears gave up an average of just 5 points in those two games ? so I don't expect a bad UCLA offense averaging just 4.6 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) to have much success today against a proud Bears' defense looking to atone for last week. Cal's offense has averaged 6.2 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, but I rate the Bears' attack at +0.5 yppl for the season after adjusting for the fact that they have 3 runs for 80 yards or more. Cal is likely to have more breakout TD runs, but it's doubtful that they'll come from the 20 yard line or further (I adjust my stats for long plays, which tend to skew the data). Cal's offense is better with Nate Longshore starting at quarterback, as Longshore has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback, while Kevin Riley has been 0.2 yppp worse than average (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp). Longshore is going to throw more interceptions (3.6% lifetime percentage is a bit higher than the national average of 3.1%), but he is still a better overall quarterback than Riley has shown to be this year. Star RB Jahvid Best was taken out of last week's game after running for 107 yards on 16 carries, but Best should play this week after having another week to recover from his dislocated elbow, which kept him out of the ASU game a few weeks ago. Backup Shane Vereen has run for 395 ards at 6.0 ypr, so he's more than capable of playing well if Best is limited. Cal's outstanding offensive line has paved the way for 6.4 yards per rushing play and the Bears should be able to run the ball pretty easily against a soft UCLA defensive front that has given up an average of 274 rushing yards at 6.8 yprp to the 3 good rushing teams that they have faced (Fresno, Oregon, and Stanford). The Bruins' pass defense has been good (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average team), but Longshore is 1.1 yppp better than average so the Bears should be able to throw when they need to ? although they may not need to given how well they should run the ball. The big advantage is Cal's defense, which is 1.9 yppl better than UCLA's offense. My math model favors California by 25 points and the Bears should be favored by more than 21 points in this game. In addition to the line value, the Bears apply to a very strong 77-17-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Cal is only 5-18 ATS in recent seasons as a favorite of 11 points or more, but they are 2-1 ATS in that role this season thanks to their stingy defense and won by 28 points as a 16 ? point favorite the last time they applied to that 77-17-1 ATS indicator. I'll take California in a 3-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less and for 2-Stars at -20 ? or -21 points.
3 Star Selection
***Mississippi (-5.0) 37 ARKANSAS 23
Mississippi may be 3-4 straight up but the Rebels are a very good team that has out-gained their opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.1 yppl and out-scored a schedule that is 4.7 points tougher than average by 3.3 points. Arkansas has played an even tougher schedule (7.0 points tougher than average), but the Razorbacks have been out-scored by an average margin of 14.4 points. Arkansas is actually a pretty decent team from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.3 yppl better than average with Casey Dick at quarterback (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Ole' Miss, meanwhile, is 1.0 yppl better than average offensively (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) and the Rebels are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and potentially are going to be better with star DE Greg Hardy rounding into form (2.5 sacks in 3 games) after missing the first 4 games of the season (Hardy was 1st team All-SEC last season). Mississippi's losses this season have all been by 7 points or less to good teams Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt and the Rebels would have won at least a couple of those games if not for being a combined -9 in turnover margin in those 4 losses (and at least -1 in each game). Mississippi is good enough to beat Florida on the road when turnovers aren't hurting them and today they face an Arkansas team that is just as turnover prone, as the Razorbacks are -8 in turnover margin in 7 games while Ole Miss is -7 in TO margin in 7 games. My math model actually projects Arkansas with a 0.2 edge in turnovers, but Mississippi is significantly better from the line of scrimmage and in special teams and the Rebels should be favored by more than 7 points in this game. In addition to the line value, Ole Miss applies to a very strong 53-7-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and there is a chance that Arkansas star RB Michael Smith may not play after suffering a concussion last week (although I expect him to play). I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 ? points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**TENNESSEE 21 Alabama (-6.0) 20
Hidden by Tennessee's 3-4 record is the strength of their defense, which has given up just 4.2 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to averaged 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Vols' defense ranks 6th best in the nation in my ratings, which places them ahead of Alabama's defense, which ranks 7th at 1.2 yppl better than average. Tennessee's stout defensive front, which has yielded just 3.4 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team), has an advantage over Alabama's great rushing attack (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) and the Crimson Tide have been held in check by the 3 other good run defenses that they have faced. In fact, Alabama has averaged just 4.2 yprp against Clemson, Georgia, and Ole Miss (who would combine to allow 3.8 yprp to an average team) ? so Alabama's rushing attack has been just 0.4 yprp better than average against good defensive teams. John Parker Wilson has been just mediocre throwing the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback, but I decided to throw out his horrible game against Tulane, when the Tide were without All-American candidate left tackle Andre Smith (Wilson was sacked 4 times and pressured constantly in that game). In the 6 games when Smith was protecting his back Wilson averaged 7.0 yppp (against teams that would allow 6. 2yppp). Tennessee's pass defense is 0.8 yppp better than average, so Wilson's passing numbers will probably be worse than average since this game is on the road. Tennessee's offense was a major problem early in the season, but the insertion of Nick Stephens as the starting quarterback has helped the Vols' attack, as Stephens has been much better throwing the ball in his 3 starts (6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) than former starter Jonathan Crompton was in the first 4 games of the season (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp). Tennessee is still only about average offensively (on a national scale) with Stephens at quarterback, but my math model projects 19 points for the Volunteers in this game, which should be enough to cover given how well their defense is playing and given the negative situation that unbeaten Alabama applies to. Alabama applies to a very negative 21-80-4 ATS situation as well as a negative 23-59-1 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten teams. Tennessee also is above average in special teams with punter Britton Colquitt back after serving a 6 game suspension. Tennessee's net punting was horrible (29.0 yds) without Colquitt, but he averaged 36.7 net yards per punt last year and field position will be important is a low scoring game between two good defensive teams. On the injury front, Alabama will be without run-stuffing star DT Terence Cody for a few weeks while Tennessee will miss star G Anthony Parker and WR and returnman Gerald Jones. Cody and Parker probably cancel each other out, but losing Jones will hurt the Vols' special teams a bit (although not as much as having Colquitt has helped their special teams rating). My math model favors Alabama by just 4 ? points and the situation merits a play against the Tide in this game. I'll take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.
DR. BOB
3 Star Selection
***UTAH ST. 30 Fresno St. (-16.5) 34
Fresno State was expected to be a good team and were anointed as a possible BCS buster by media "experts". A win over Rutgers to start the season, followed by a close home loss to a Wisconsin team rated in the top 10 added to the misconception that the Bulldogs were a good team. Turns out that Rutgers is a bad team and that Wisconsin is now 3-4 and falling fast. Fresno's other wins have been an overtime win against 2-5 Toledo, a 5 point win against a mediocre 3-4 UCLA team and a 46-32 win as a 34 point favorite against an Idaho team that may be the worst in Division 1A. Fresno State is 0-5 ATS since their season opening win over Rutgers and the Bulldogs' very good offense (6.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) is balanced out by a horrible defense that has allowed an average of 37 points and 6.3 yppl in 4 games since losing run-stuffing defensive lineman Jon Monga early in their week 4 game against Toledo ? to 4 bad offensive teams that would combine to average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Fresno generally has good talent among their starters, but their lack of depth along the defensive line has hurt them for a second consecutive season (they went from decent to horrible defensively last season after losing some defensive line starters in week 5). Utah State is a bad offensive team, averaging just 4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl against an average team, but they are considerably better than Fresno State's defense and Aggie's running quarterback Diondre Borel and backs Turbin and Marsh (444 combined yards at 4.7 ypr) should feast on a Fresno defensive front that can't stop the run ? the Bulldogs have allowed 237 yards at 6.3 yards per rushing play since losing Monga despite facing teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team. Fresno will certainly score a good number of points too against a sub-par Utah State defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average, but my math model favors Fresno by just 7 ? points in this game and the Bulldogs are not to be trusted laying points when they are not playing well. The Bulldogs are just 11-25-2 ATS under Pat Hill as a favorite of 2 points or more following a point spread loss, including 0-4 ATS this season and 4-19-1 ATS since 2002. Fresno also applies to a negative 34-83-2 ATS big road favorite off a bye week angle that has won 9 consecutive times for the home dog. I'll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 2-Stars from +13 ? to +10 ? points.
3 Star Selection
***GEORGIA TECH (-13.0) 33 Virginia 10
Virginia appears to be getting better and enters this game riding a 3 game win steak despite being an underdog in each game. I've been on the Cavaliers in recent weeks at home, but their recent improvement is most likely a function of playing 3 consecutive home game rather than Virginia being a good team. Virginia has always played better at home under Al Groh (32-15 ATS, 29-12 not favored by more than 23 points) than they've played on the road (14-27 ATS). The Cavaliers have also been better with revenge (22-6 ATS) under Groh than they have been when the other team has the revenge motive (16-25 ATS in those games). And, Groh's team has been much better after a loss (23-12 ATS) than they have after a good game (15-22 ATS after a win and spread win). History is certainly not on the side of Virginia today, as they are on the road after 3 consecutive win and covers against a superior team that they happened to have beaten last season. Virginia is just 6-20-1 ATS on the road against a team with revenge and a horrendous 1-18 ATS on the road after a game in which they won and covered the spread (1-16 ATS under Groh). Virginia's only two road games this season resulted in a blowout losses against mediocre teams Connecticut (10-45) and Duke (3-31) and Georgia Tech is much better than either of those teams. Virginia does look like an improved team since getting blown out by USC to start the season and they are certainly better offensively now that top back Cedric Peerman is healthy. Peerman has rushed for 327 yards the last 3 weeks and is averaging 6.0 ypr for the season, but I still rate Virginia's offense at 0.5 yards per play worse than average and the Cavaliers were 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively in their 3 game home winning streak. That attack doesn't figure to move the ball very well against a Georgia Tech defense that has allowed just 12.0 points per game and 4.1 yppl in 5 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 23 points and 5.1 yppl against an average team. Georgia Tech's triple option offense has also been very good, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged 6.1 yppl in 5 Division 1A games against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Georgia Tech's offense may be underrated because they struggled to move the ball in a 10-7 win over Gardner-Webb a couple of weeks ago, but the Yellow Jackets' top 2 quarterbacks were held out of that game and the option attack was run by a traditional drop back passer with limited mobility and no experience running the option. Georgia Tech has also lost 8 fumbles in 5 1A games, which has kept them from scoring as much as they should be scoring given how well they move the ball (although they've still averaged 24.4 points in those games against teams that would allow just 19.7 points per game to an average team). Virginia Tech's defense was overwhelmed in their opener against USC and I decided to throw those stats out. Since that game the Cavaliers have been 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team), but they have been just average defending the run (4.8 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp) and that is a problem in this game. Georgia Tech has faced just one 1A team that is not good defending the run and the Jackets ran for 439 yards at 8.3 yprp in that game against a Mississippi State defense that is actually slightly better defending the run than Virginia is. The line on this game should be much higher and my math model gives the Yellow Jackets a 59.6% chance of covering at -11 ? points. That doesn't include how poorly Virginia plays on the road after a win and cover, which makes Georgia Tech an even higher percentage play. I'll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and 2-Stars from -14 ? to -16 points.
3 Star Selection
***CALIFORNIA (-17.0) 38 UCLA 10
Cal struggled last week against a good Arizona squad in Tucson, but the Bears should bounce back from their one bad defensive game of the year by shutting down a sub-par UCLA offense today. Prior to last week, the Golden Bears' top-notch defensive unit had not allowed more than 5.1 yards per play to any team (they allowed 6.3 yppl to Arizona) and they have still yielded just 4.4 yppl for the season against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Cal has faced just 3 below average offensive teams in Washington State and Colorado State and the Bears gave up an average of just 5 points in those two games ? so I don't expect a bad UCLA offense averaging just 4.6 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) to have much success today against a proud Bears' defense looking to atone for last week. Cal's offense has averaged 6.2 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team, but I rate the Bears' attack at +0.5 yppl for the season after adjusting for the fact that they have 3 runs for 80 yards or more. Cal is likely to have more breakout TD runs, but it's doubtful that they'll come from the 20 yard line or further (I adjust my stats for long plays, which tend to skew the data). Cal's offense is better with Nate Longshore starting at quarterback, as Longshore has averaged 6.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback, while Kevin Riley has been 0.2 yppp worse than average (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp). Longshore is going to throw more interceptions (3.6% lifetime percentage is a bit higher than the national average of 3.1%), but he is still a better overall quarterback than Riley has shown to be this year. Star RB Jahvid Best was taken out of last week's game after running for 107 yards on 16 carries, but Best should play this week after having another week to recover from his dislocated elbow, which kept him out of the ASU game a few weeks ago. Backup Shane Vereen has run for 395 ards at 6.0 ypr, so he's more than capable of playing well if Best is limited. Cal's outstanding offensive line has paved the way for 6.4 yards per rushing play and the Bears should be able to run the ball pretty easily against a soft UCLA defensive front that has given up an average of 274 rushing yards at 6.8 yprp to the 3 good rushing teams that they have faced (Fresno, Oregon, and Stanford). The Bruins' pass defense has been good (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp against an average team), but Longshore is 1.1 yppp better than average so the Bears should be able to throw when they need to ? although they may not need to given how well they should run the ball. The big advantage is Cal's defense, which is 1.9 yppl better than UCLA's offense. My math model favors California by 25 points and the Bears should be favored by more than 21 points in this game. In addition to the line value, the Bears apply to a very strong 77-17-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Cal is only 5-18 ATS in recent seasons as a favorite of 11 points or more, but they are 2-1 ATS in that role this season thanks to their stingy defense and won by 28 points as a 16 ? point favorite the last time they applied to that 77-17-1 ATS indicator. I'll take California in a 3-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less and for 2-Stars at -20 ? or -21 points.
3 Star Selection
***Mississippi (-5.0) 37 ARKANSAS 23
Mississippi may be 3-4 straight up but the Rebels are a very good team that has out-gained their opponents 6.1 yards per play to 5.1 yppl and out-scored a schedule that is 4.7 points tougher than average by 3.3 points. Arkansas has played an even tougher schedule (7.0 points tougher than average), but the Razorbacks have been out-scored by an average margin of 14.4 points. Arkansas is actually a pretty decent team from the line of scrimmage, rating at 0.3 yppl better than average with Casey Dick at quarterback (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). Ole' Miss, meanwhile, is 1.0 yppl better than average offensively (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) and the Rebels are 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and potentially are going to be better with star DE Greg Hardy rounding into form (2.5 sacks in 3 games) after missing the first 4 games of the season (Hardy was 1st team All-SEC last season). Mississippi's losses this season have all been by 7 points or less to good teams Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt and the Rebels would have won at least a couple of those games if not for being a combined -9 in turnover margin in those 4 losses (and at least -1 in each game). Mississippi is good enough to beat Florida on the road when turnovers aren't hurting them and today they face an Arkansas team that is just as turnover prone, as the Razorbacks are -8 in turnover margin in 7 games while Ole Miss is -7 in TO margin in 7 games. My math model actually projects Arkansas with a 0.2 edge in turnovers, but Mississippi is significantly better from the line of scrimmage and in special teams and the Rebels should be favored by more than 7 points in this game. In addition to the line value, Ole Miss applies to a very strong 53-7-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and there is a chance that Arkansas star RB Michael Smith may not play after suffering a concussion last week (although I expect him to play). I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 ? points or less and for 2-Stars at -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**TENNESSEE 21 Alabama (-6.0) 20
Hidden by Tennessee's 3-4 record is the strength of their defense, which has given up just 4.2 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to averaged 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Vols' defense ranks 6th best in the nation in my ratings, which places them ahead of Alabama's defense, which ranks 7th at 1.2 yppl better than average. Tennessee's stout defensive front, which has yielded just 3.4 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team), has an advantage over Alabama's great rushing attack (5.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) and the Crimson Tide have been held in check by the 3 other good run defenses that they have faced. In fact, Alabama has averaged just 4.2 yprp against Clemson, Georgia, and Ole Miss (who would combine to allow 3.8 yprp to an average team) ? so Alabama's rushing attack has been just 0.4 yprp better than average against good defensive teams. John Parker Wilson has been just mediocre throwing the ball, averaging 6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback, but I decided to throw out his horrible game against Tulane, when the Tide were without All-American candidate left tackle Andre Smith (Wilson was sacked 4 times and pressured constantly in that game). In the 6 games when Smith was protecting his back Wilson averaged 7.0 yppp (against teams that would allow 6. 2yppp). Tennessee's pass defense is 0.8 yppp better than average, so Wilson's passing numbers will probably be worse than average since this game is on the road. Tennessee's offense was a major problem early in the season, but the insertion of Nick Stephens as the starting quarterback has helped the Vols' attack, as Stephens has been much better throwing the ball in his 3 starts (6.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average QB) than former starter Jonathan Crompton was in the first 4 games of the season (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp). Tennessee is still only about average offensively (on a national scale) with Stephens at quarterback, but my math model projects 19 points for the Volunteers in this game, which should be enough to cover given how well their defense is playing and given the negative situation that unbeaten Alabama applies to. Alabama applies to a very negative 21-80-4 ATS situation as well as a negative 23-59-1 ATS situation that plays against unbeaten teams. Tennessee also is above average in special teams with punter Britton Colquitt back after serving a 6 game suspension. Tennessee's net punting was horrible (29.0 yds) without Colquitt, but he averaged 36.7 net yards per punt last year and field position will be important is a low scoring game between two good defensive teams. On the injury front, Alabama will be without run-stuffing star DT Terence Cody for a few weeks while Tennessee will miss star G Anthony Parker and WR and returnman Gerald Jones. Cody and Parker probably cancel each other out, but losing Jones will hurt the Vols' special teams a bit (although not as much as having Colquitt has helped their special teams rating). My math model favors Alabama by just 4 ? points and the situation merits a play against the Tide in this game. I'll take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.
LARRY NESS
Larry Ness' 9* CFB Bailout Blowout (7-1)
OHIO STATE
Larry's Weekend Wipeout Winner: 7-1 CFB run
MISSOURI TIGERS
Larry's Las Vegas Insider (7-1 CFB)-Early
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Larry Ness' 9* CFB Bailout Blowout (7-1)
OHIO STATE
Larry's Weekend Wipeout Winner: 7-1 CFB run
MISSOURI TIGERS
Larry's Las Vegas Insider (7-1 CFB)-Early
KANSAS JAYHAWKS
