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5* @Georgia Tech (-14) vs. Virginia
We were on Virginia as a big play at home last weekend, however we?re going to do a 180 and play against them on Saturday. The Cavs have been on a nice roll winning three straight games after a rough start, however all of those games have been in the friendly confines of their home stadium. Now they must venture out on the road for the first time since September 27th! Not only that, they are coming off an overtime win vs. big time rival North Carolina. This week will be tough for UVA. The Cavaliers two road games this year were both blowout losses. They were destroyed at UConn 45-10 and were whipped at down trodden Duke 31-3. Inexperienced starting QB Marc Verica will be making just the third road start of his career. He has thrown 5 interceptions in his first two starts away from home. While he has started to come around and play well at home, we expect a struggle on Saturday. The Cavs have been out gained in their two road games by 810 to 477 total yards. Last week in their win over UNC, the Virginia threw up a red flag so to speak for this week?s contest against the Yellow Jackets. That?s because the Heels, who have an average running game, exploited the UVA defense for 166 yards on the ground. They now allow nearly 150 YPG on the ground and 4 YPC. That?s NOT where you want to struggle on defense when playing Georgia Tech. The Jackets have the 9th best rushing attack in the nation rolling up 248 YPG on the ground. Not only that, they have one of the best defenses in the country allowing their opponents only 254 total yards per game (5th in the nation). Despite being 6-1 on the season, this Tech team is REALLY flying under the radar. Their only loss was @ Virginia Tech where they were tripped up 20-17. In that game, however, the Jackets actually dominated out gained the Hokies by 140 yards. They had 278 yards rushing in that game against one of the better stop units in the country. The bumble bees should have a field day against UVA this weekend. This ACC battle has definitely gone the way of the home team. The host has now covered 11 of the last 13 in this series. We really like the ?play against? situation with Virginia especially vs. the under rated Georgia Tech team. Lay the points.
4* @Army (-2) over Louisiana Tech
Don?t look now but they always hard trying Cadets of Army are playing really solid football. After looking like a deer in headlights at the beginning of the season trying to run their new option offense, they now have it nearly perfected and it has showed on the field. It really started to click for this team during their trip to Texas A&M back on September 27th. They lost that game 21-17 but out gained the Aggies on their own turf racking up 280 yards rushing. Including that loss, Army is now 2-2 with their losses coming at A&M and at Buffalo in overtime. During that four game stretch where their option attack has really taken off, they rolled up 1,232 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Army out rushed those four opponents by a combined 789 yards! This will be a tough trip for La. Tech. They are in the middle of their WAC schedule and getting up for a trip to play Army won?t be easy. Not only that, they are facing an offense that they NEVER see in the WAC. The high flying arial attacks in that conference are obviously nothing like the option attack they will face on Saturday. They have just one week to get ready for that offense which makes it tough, especially being a somewhat meaningless non-conference road game. The overall numbers say that Louisiana Tech has a solid run defense but we say otherwise. First of all, they haven?t played a really good running offense all season long. As we stated, the WAC is a pass happy league which often will make the defensive rush numbers look much better than they are. Army currently ranks 8th nationally in rushing at 253 YPG but as you saw earlier in our analysis, a majority of those numbers have come in the last four games so we actually have them higher than that right now. The best running offense that La. Tech has seen so far this year is Boise State and they average 142 YPG. The Bulldogs have thrown up a zippo on the road this year (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) getting beat by an average score of 30-6. They have Fresno State on deck which is a very important conference game. We simply don?t see them making this trip and being all that interested in this game. Army always gives 100% effort and they are playing much very well as of late. This all adds up to an Army win at home.
3* Oklahoma (-18) over @ Kansas State
The Sooner offense has to be licking their chops when it comes to facing this porous KSU defense. The Cats stop unit has been terrible this year allowing nearly 200 YPG rushing and 240 yards passing. Those numbers rank them 106th in the nation in total defense and those were against mainly suspect offenses. KSU?s schedule has been very light with the exception of games @ Louisville and home vs. Texas Tech. Their 38-29 loss @ Louisville was dominated by the Cards outgaining the Wildcats by 234 yards. KSU?s home game vs. Texas Tech was a 58-28 loss and they allowed the Red Raiders 626 total yards! Other than that, the offenses they have faced have been average to below. Now they attempt to slow down an Oklahoma offense that averages nearly 50 PPG and ranks 4th nationally in yardage per game. Good luck with that. Last week the Sooners faced a pretty good Kansas defense and rolled up 674 yards. They were a bit flat coming off their showdown (and a loss) vs. Texas and still put up 45 points. Their defense was also flat and uncharacteristically allowed 35 points to a very good Kansas offense. That won?t happen this week vs. a KSU team that is one-dimensional on offense. The Cats can?t run the ball being out gained on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. While KSU QB Josh Freeman is good, he won?t be able to do it all here vs. an angry OU defense that will want to make amends for last Saturday?s underachieving performance. The Sooners don?t mind the road at all where they are 23-6 SU their last 29. They are so good on offense and KSU is so bad on defense, we wouldn?t be surprised at all if OU doesn?t have to punt once in this game. The Sooners can score whatever they would like here and we look for them to get into the 50?s as they usually do. Kansas State won?t be able to keep up and Freeman will be forced into making tough throws to try and bring his team back resulting in turnovers. OU pulls away big time in the second half and wins easily getting the cover.
3* Mississippi (-6.5) @ Arkansas
The last few years, Ole Miss was an afterthought opponent for the top SEC talent; however, Houston Nutt has transformed the Rebels into a legitimate opponent to any SEC team, and is proving that they shouldn?t be overlooked. Earlier this season, Ole Miss marched into the unfriendly confines of Florida and beat the Gators 31-30. Since then, they have played two tough games against South Carolina and Alabama, and have come up short twice. I can?t overstate the fact that Nutt has his players motivated and playing hard every week, and this week will be more important than ever, as Nutt will be facing his former team and Alma-Mater, Arkansas. Expect Ole Miss to get the win on the road here against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is really hurting from the loss of last years playmakers on offense (McFadden, Jones, Monk), and while RB Michael Smith is having a solid season, there is little talent around him. The Razorbacks rank 100th in the NCAA in points scored this season, averaging just 19 points per game. Their defense has been just as bad, ranking 109th, giving up 33 points per game. The Rebels also have a big advantage at quarterback, where Jevan Snead is having a breakout year for Ole Miss, and Razorback QB Casey Dick continues to struggle. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings vs. Arkansas; however, those 4 Razorback wins were under coach Houston Nutt. Now, it?s Ole Miss who has the upper-hand, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall; while Arkansas is headed the opposite direction, going just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. Arkansas will see how the Rebels players respond the Nutt?s coaching and wish they never would?ve let their old coach go. Go with the Rebels with the points.
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5* @Georgia Tech (-14) vs. Virginia
We were on Virginia as a big play at home last weekend, however we?re going to do a 180 and play against them on Saturday. The Cavs have been on a nice roll winning three straight games after a rough start, however all of those games have been in the friendly confines of their home stadium. Now they must venture out on the road for the first time since September 27th! Not only that, they are coming off an overtime win vs. big time rival North Carolina. This week will be tough for UVA. The Cavaliers two road games this year were both blowout losses. They were destroyed at UConn 45-10 and were whipped at down trodden Duke 31-3. Inexperienced starting QB Marc Verica will be making just the third road start of his career. He has thrown 5 interceptions in his first two starts away from home. While he has started to come around and play well at home, we expect a struggle on Saturday. The Cavs have been out gained in their two road games by 810 to 477 total yards. Last week in their win over UNC, the Virginia threw up a red flag so to speak for this week?s contest against the Yellow Jackets. That?s because the Heels, who have an average running game, exploited the UVA defense for 166 yards on the ground. They now allow nearly 150 YPG on the ground and 4 YPC. That?s NOT where you want to struggle on defense when playing Georgia Tech. The Jackets have the 9th best rushing attack in the nation rolling up 248 YPG on the ground. Not only that, they have one of the best defenses in the country allowing their opponents only 254 total yards per game (5th in the nation). Despite being 6-1 on the season, this Tech team is REALLY flying under the radar. Their only loss was @ Virginia Tech where they were tripped up 20-17. In that game, however, the Jackets actually dominated out gained the Hokies by 140 yards. They had 278 yards rushing in that game against one of the better stop units in the country. The bumble bees should have a field day against UVA this weekend. This ACC battle has definitely gone the way of the home team. The host has now covered 11 of the last 13 in this series. We really like the ?play against? situation with Virginia especially vs. the under rated Georgia Tech team. Lay the points.
4* @Army (-2) over Louisiana Tech
Don?t look now but they always hard trying Cadets of Army are playing really solid football. After looking like a deer in headlights at the beginning of the season trying to run their new option offense, they now have it nearly perfected and it has showed on the field. It really started to click for this team during their trip to Texas A&M back on September 27th. They lost that game 21-17 but out gained the Aggies on their own turf racking up 280 yards rushing. Including that loss, Army is now 2-2 with their losses coming at A&M and at Buffalo in overtime. During that four game stretch where their option attack has really taken off, they rolled up 1,232 yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Army out rushed those four opponents by a combined 789 yards! This will be a tough trip for La. Tech. They are in the middle of their WAC schedule and getting up for a trip to play Army won?t be easy. Not only that, they are facing an offense that they NEVER see in the WAC. The high flying arial attacks in that conference are obviously nothing like the option attack they will face on Saturday. They have just one week to get ready for that offense which makes it tough, especially being a somewhat meaningless non-conference road game. The overall numbers say that Louisiana Tech has a solid run defense but we say otherwise. First of all, they haven?t played a really good running offense all season long. As we stated, the WAC is a pass happy league which often will make the defensive rush numbers look much better than they are. Army currently ranks 8th nationally in rushing at 253 YPG but as you saw earlier in our analysis, a majority of those numbers have come in the last four games so we actually have them higher than that right now. The best running offense that La. Tech has seen so far this year is Boise State and they average 142 YPG. The Bulldogs have thrown up a zippo on the road this year (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) getting beat by an average score of 30-6. They have Fresno State on deck which is a very important conference game. We simply don?t see them making this trip and being all that interested in this game. Army always gives 100% effort and they are playing much very well as of late. This all adds up to an Army win at home.
3* Oklahoma (-18) over @ Kansas State
The Sooner offense has to be licking their chops when it comes to facing this porous KSU defense. The Cats stop unit has been terrible this year allowing nearly 200 YPG rushing and 240 yards passing. Those numbers rank them 106th in the nation in total defense and those were against mainly suspect offenses. KSU?s schedule has been very light with the exception of games @ Louisville and home vs. Texas Tech. Their 38-29 loss @ Louisville was dominated by the Cards outgaining the Wildcats by 234 yards. KSU?s home game vs. Texas Tech was a 58-28 loss and they allowed the Red Raiders 626 total yards! Other than that, the offenses they have faced have been average to below. Now they attempt to slow down an Oklahoma offense that averages nearly 50 PPG and ranks 4th nationally in yardage per game. Good luck with that. Last week the Sooners faced a pretty good Kansas defense and rolled up 674 yards. They were a bit flat coming off their showdown (and a loss) vs. Texas and still put up 45 points. Their defense was also flat and uncharacteristically allowed 35 points to a very good Kansas offense. That won?t happen this week vs. a KSU team that is one-dimensional on offense. The Cats can?t run the ball being out gained on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. While KSU QB Josh Freeman is good, he won?t be able to do it all here vs. an angry OU defense that will want to make amends for last Saturday?s underachieving performance. The Sooners don?t mind the road at all where they are 23-6 SU their last 29. They are so good on offense and KSU is so bad on defense, we wouldn?t be surprised at all if OU doesn?t have to punt once in this game. The Sooners can score whatever they would like here and we look for them to get into the 50?s as they usually do. Kansas State won?t be able to keep up and Freeman will be forced into making tough throws to try and bring his team back resulting in turnovers. OU pulls away big time in the second half and wins easily getting the cover.
3* Mississippi (-6.5) @ Arkansas
The last few years, Ole Miss was an afterthought opponent for the top SEC talent; however, Houston Nutt has transformed the Rebels into a legitimate opponent to any SEC team, and is proving that they shouldn?t be overlooked. Earlier this season, Ole Miss marched into the unfriendly confines of Florida and beat the Gators 31-30. Since then, they have played two tough games against South Carolina and Alabama, and have come up short twice. I can?t overstate the fact that Nutt has his players motivated and playing hard every week, and this week will be more important than ever, as Nutt will be facing his former team and Alma-Mater, Arkansas. Expect Ole Miss to get the win on the road here against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is really hurting from the loss of last years playmakers on offense (McFadden, Jones, Monk), and while RB Michael Smith is having a solid season, there is little talent around him. The Razorbacks rank 100th in the NCAA in points scored this season, averaging just 19 points per game. Their defense has been just as bad, ranking 109th, giving up 33 points per game. The Rebels also have a big advantage at quarterback, where Jevan Snead is having a breakout year for Ole Miss, and Razorback QB Casey Dick continues to struggle. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings vs. Arkansas; however, those 4 Razorback wins were under coach Houston Nutt. Now, it?s Ole Miss who has the upper-hand, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall; while Arkansas is headed the opposite direction, going just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. Arkansas will see how the Rebels players respond the Nutt?s coaching and wish they never would?ve let their old coach go. Go with the Rebels with the points.
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