Saturday 12/8
- Thread starter NYMess
- Start date
*** FOR SUNDAY ***
THOUGHT YOU MIGHT LIKE THEM NOW
Spritzer's 2007 **NFL Game of the Year!
My GOY is a play on the Colts, minus points over Baltimore. The Ravens' players themselves, basically billed last week's game against New England as their Super Bowl. The meltdown at the end of the game, following a chain of numerous bad breaks was all I needed to see to lift the level of this game to the highest it could be. I was set to wager on the Colts, whether the Ravens won or lost that game. But the manner that they lost in should have this team's already fractured psyche in the dumper. It's pretty safe to say that the current roster couldn't be any more frustrated with their coaching staff than they already are. No one seems to see eye-to-eye with Billick any longer. The defense is not aging well and the secondary is a shell of what it was last season. The defense as a whole, is no longer intimidating. Peyton Manning, with TE Dallas Clark bringing back another dimension to this offense, will drill this once-proud stop-unit. Clark grabbed seven Manning passes last week and really opened things up for Reggie Wayne who finished with 158 receiving yards. Defensively, the Colts rank in the top-5 in points allowed, passing yardage allowed, and total yards allowed (277 per game). The Ravens got a huge game out of McGahee last week, yet still couldn't get over the top. They're 23rd in the league in total offense, and still don't have a true starting QB on the roster. Baltimore is averaging just 16 PPG during their current 6-game losing skid, and have been held to 14 points or less in four of those games. Off a physically and emotionally draining Monday night loss...and a draining season for that matter, I believe Baltimore will be as flat as they've been in seasons. I believe the Colts will cruise throughout on Sunday night with an easy win and cover. Colts 31 Ravens 9. The Colts are my NFL Game of the Year. Thanks! GL!.
LARRY NESS ' LEGEND Play-NFL
My LEGEND Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. The 6-6 Cards are tied with the Lions and Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC. That's heady territory considering the team has made the postseason just ONCE (in 1998) since moving to the desert in 1988. Meanwhile, with a win here, the Seahawks (who have won four straight games), can clinch their FOURTH straight NFC West title. Seattle is playing well, as Hasselbeck has thrown two TD passes in SIX of his last seven games, while averaging 275 YPG through the air. In the four-game winning streak, he's completed 62.2% with a 7-3 ratio. RB Morris averaged 84.3 YPG on the ground in the three games Alexander missed and added 5-for-64 LW, as Alexander returned (Shaun had 20-65). Arizona escaped LW with just a 27-21 win (almost lost it!), despite forcing four Cleveland TOs and enters this game with a 'ton' of key injuries. QB Warner is always a "hit away" from the sidelines, while his starting WRs are questionable. Boldin (likely to miss with a toe problem) and Fitzgerald (will be a game-time decision with a groin injury The Seattle pass D is 2nd in sacks with 36 (Warner better be careful), plus has allowed a league-low seven TDs (15 INTs). The Arizona D is without its best player in safety Adrian Wilson, starting CB Green and its best pass rusher (Berry). Seattle fell behind Arizona (Week 2) on the road 17-0 but took a 20-17 lead before losing 23-20. The Seahawks have been an excellent home team while making the playoffs these past four seasons and have won three straight at home coming in, outscoring opponents, 87-29. Seattle "smells blood" here. LEGEND on the Sea Seahawks.
Good Luck...
LARRY NESS' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 14
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. Head coach Norv Turner was on the "hot seat" at SD after a 1-3 start but is now expected to be offered a multi-year deal with the Chargers at 7-5. I'm NOT sold on the 7-5 Chargers "being back" just yet, as the team's lone quality win came against the Colts (23-21), a game in which SD had two kick return TDs, Peyton threw six INTs plus Indy's Vinatieri missed a 29-yard game-winning FG at the end! The team's other six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 28-44 (.389) entering Week 14! Rivers has thrown for less than 200 yards in FIVE of his last seven games and is nowhere near LY's form. Tomlinson's averaging 26 YPG less, has just 12 TDs through 12 games (had 29 LY) and his YPC is down from 5.2 to 4.4! Overall, the offense is averaging just 23.8 PPG, after averaging a league-best 30.8 LY! For the Titans, Vince Young is really coming on at QB, averaging 264 YPG through the air the last four games, after averaging a pathetic 122.1 through his first seven starts. He's also added 176 rushing yards (6.8 per) the last four weeks. The Titans broke a three-game losing streak LW, as DT Albert Haynesworth returned. In his absence, the team allowed 97 points (32.3 per) and 160 YPG rushing, going 0-3. With him, the Titans are 7-2 in '07, allowing 16.0 PPG and 71.9 YPG rushing (which would rank them 2nd in the NFL!). SD is just 2-4 SU on the road, losing at NE, GB, Min and Jax. The defense has allowed 32 PPG in those losses and like the offense, has not played anywhere near its '06 form. SD has some "wiggle room" in the weak AFC West, a luxury the 7-5 Titans don't have in the AFC South, where the Colts are 10-2 and the Jags are 8-4. On the sidelines, Fisher vs Turner is a complete mismatch. SD is also not helped by traveling again for the second straight week, while the Titans play their second straight at home. Las Vegas Insider on the Ten Titans.
Burns NFL
TITANS (-3 or better)
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tennessee Titans Reason: I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Chargers managed a win at KC last week. However, they've still been poor when playing Eastern games at 1:00 pm. Both their 2006 regular season losses cane when playing an "early" game. Prior to last week, the Chargers had lost all three games in that situation, losing at Green Bay, Minnesota and Jacksonville. Playing their second straight early game, facing what should be an extremely motivated Tennessee squad, I expect the Chargers to stumble here. In addition to having homefield advantage, I feel this game means more to the Titans. The Chargers obviously want to win. However, they can afford to lose and they'd still be in first place in the West, regardless of what the Broncos do. On the other hand, although they have the same record (7-5) as the Chargers, the Titans know they can't win their division (Colts are 10-2) and they're currently in a "dawg fight" with the Browns for the Wildcard spot, meaning that every game is extremely important. Not that they need any additional motivation, but the Titans won't have forgotten last season's embarrassing 40-7 loss, as nobody has beaten them that badly since. Note that while the Chargers' defense has allowed 23.5 points and 369.2 yards per game on the road, the Titans' defense has allowed only 16.5 points per game and a mere 263.7 yards per game. They should have star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth in the lineup and that makes the defense and team significantly better. In fact, the Titans are 7-2 with Haynesworth in the lineup this season and 13-3 the past 16. The Titans are coming off an important win over Houston and they've fared well in that situation, going 17-6 ATS the last 23 times they were coming off a home win over a divisional opponent and 32-17 the last 49 times they were coming off a division win overall. Behind another big defensive effort, look for the Titans to earn the important victory. *Personal Favorite
EAGLES (-3 or better)
Game: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. The Giants know they can't win the division. However, they're pretty comfortable for the Wild Card. Conversely, this is truly a "must win" game for the Eagles as a loss will kill any remaining hope that they might have. They're also playing with "revenge" from a 16-3 loss at New York earlier this season. That's noteworthy as we find the Eagles at a terrific 44-22-3 ATS the last 69 times they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, including 8-3 ATS since 2005. The Eagles have actually been playing very well the last four weeks. They beat Washington and Miami before losing very close games vs. the Seahawks and Patriots. Both those games could have been won if not for critical interceptions by A.J. Feeley. With McNabb expected to return, I expect the entire team to receive a boost. Note that the Eagles also expect to get back defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley and safety Quintin Mikell, both of whom missed the Seattle game with knee injuries. This is a well-coached and experienced Philadelphia team which has gone to the Super Bowl and which knows how to win at this time of year. Despite last week's loss, the Eagles remain a healthy 13-7 SU and 11-7-2 ATS their last 20 home games played in the month of December. Playing with "revenge," playing a "must win game", playing their second straight home game vs. a Giants team playing its second straight on the road, I feel the situation calls for a convincing win and cover for the Eagles. *Situational Blowout GOW
UNDER 49ers/vikings (37 or better)
Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Time: 12/9/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Minnesota and San Francisco to finish UNDER the total. I lost with the Vikings "under" the total last week. However, I'm willing to give it a shot again here. Despite a really poor game from the Lions' defense, that game still would have stayed below the number if not for a 100 yard Minnesota kick-return touchdown. Despite that result, the UNDER remains a profitable 9-1 the last 10 times that the Vikings were coming off a double-digit victory and 6-1-1 the past eight times they were coming off consecutive victories. The Vikings have an excellent run defense as they are limiting teams to a league-low 70.5 rushing yards per game, having held the Lions to 23 last week. That causes many teams to abandon the run. However, the 49ers have such a conservative offense and rely so heavily on Frank Gore (one of the reason's for their struggles) that they'll continue to pound the ball on the ground, regardless of how ineffective it is. Note that the 49ers have seen the UNDER go 4-1 at home this season with those games averaging a mere 28.4 points. While the defense has been solid, San Francisco has averaged only 209 yards of offense in those games. I also played on the UNDER when the Vikings traveled here last season. That game produced a mere 12 points as the 49ers won by a score of 9-3. With a heavy dose of the run from both teams helping to chew up the clock, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair which falls below the number. *December Total of the Month
3 game exec report
JETS (+3 or better)
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets Game Time: 12/9/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: New York Jets Reason: I'm taking the points with the NEW YORK JETS. The Jets are starting to play their best football of the season with two wins in their past three games. Those victories were rather impressive too as one came vs. Pittsburgh and the other was a 41-13 blowout of Miami. It has been an excellent season for the Browns. However, the reality is that they've struggled on the road all season as they've gone just 2-4 while giving up 28 points per game. The two wins came at Baltimore and St. Louis and both were very fortunate. The victory at Baltimore came in overtime after the Browns hit a field goal off the upright to tie the game at the end of regulation. The win at St. Louis came vs. a severely banged up Rams team and Cleveland had to rally from a 14 point deficit and then hang on until the final seconds. With last week's loss at Arizona, the Browns are now 5-15 their last 20 road games. NONE of those five victories came by more than a touchdown and four of them came by four points or less. The point that I am trying to make is that I don't feel the Browns deserve to be favored by a field goal (or more) on the road vs. anyone, let alone an improving and revenge-minded New York team. Note that the Browns have just one win in their last eight December road games and that win came by two points at Oakland back in 2005. Meanwhile, the Jets are 4-0 ATS their last four December games and 13-7 ATS their last 20. Coming off arguably his best game as a pro, I expect Kellen Clemens to fare well against a porous Cleveland secondary which ranks 30th in the league. With the Browns playing their second straight on the road, I feel that situation favors the home underdog.
PANTHERS (+10 or better)
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with CAROLINA. The Panthers finally got the monkey off their back with a big home win last week. Conversely, the Jaguars come off a close loss to defending champion and division leader Indianapolis. The Panthers have played well on the road all season, going 4-2 SU/ATS. That brings them to a profitable 62-43-3 ATS on the road since they came into the league in 1995. During the same stretch, they've also gone a profitable 32-18 ATS in the month of December and 70-44-2 (61.4%) ATS when listed as underdogs. On the other hand, the Jaguars haven't been very profitable when listed as large favorites. In fact, they're just 7-13 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by more than eight points. A game vs. their division rivals (Colts) seems to take a toll on the Jaguars. Looking at the last few times that they were coming off a game vs. Indianapolis and we find that the Jaguars have lost by six points, lost by seven points and, most recently, won by a single point. These teams have faced each other three times since coming into the league at the same time. All three games were decided by 10 points or less and the most recent two games saw scores of 24-23 and 22-20. I feel that the Panthers are better than their record indicates and I'm expecting another close game which comes down to the wire.
LIONS (+10 or better)
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. I successfully played on the Cowboys in their win over Green Bay. Off that monumental victory, and with rival Philadelphia (Owens' old team) on deck, I expect them to find it difficult to get emotionally "fired up" for the lowly Lions. Conversely, I expect a passionate effort from the Lions, as they've been embarrassed one too many times and are in danger of falling below the 500 mark and out of the wildcard race. Note that the Lions are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as double-digit underdogs, winning two of those games outright. The most recent of those victories came against these same Cowboys last season, 39-31 at Dallas. That result should give the Lions confidence that they can compete with and beat this year's team. The Lions have only been beaten by more than 10 points once in their last 11 December home games. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle here, improving to 19-7 ATS the last 26 times they were coming off three or more consecutive losses.
Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take #122 Seattle (-7) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
4.5-Unit Play. Take #113 Pittsburgh (+11) over New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
4-Unit Play. Take #110 Philadelphia (-2.5) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
3-Unit Play. Take #115 San Diego (Pk) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
3-Unit Play. Take #103 Carolina (+11) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 37.0 Kansas City at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
Take #126 New York Jets (+3.5) over Cleveland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
Everyone and their sister is on the Browns in this game ? so we?re going the other way. This is Cleveland?s fourth road game in the last five weeks and its fifth in the last seven weeks. I think they come out a bit flat here against a Jets squad that is 2-1 and playing better since its bye week.
Take #131 New Orleans (-4.5) over Atlanta (8:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 10)
The Falcons are simply not capable of competing along the offensive and defensive lines. They have been decimated at the point of attack and shouldn?t be able to hold up against a Saints team still clinging to postseason hopes. Atlanta has turned to Chris Redman as the starter, and something tells me that isn?t going to help. I expect a weak crowd at the Georgia Dome and I?m looking for another primetime beat down for the Falcons.
Docs - Paid and confirmed
3 Unit Play. #3 Take Miami +7 over Buffalo (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Dolphins laid an egg last week against the Jets, but have played better in the two proceeding weeks, covering both of those games. The Bills do not do anything exceptionally well and thus will not be able to light-up the scoreboard against a decent Dolphins defense. They did not score a touchdown last week against Washington. If the Dolphins do not beat themselves with turnovers, they will stay in the game throughout and keep it within a field goal. Buffalo 20, Miami 17.
6 Unit Play. #15 Take Pittsburgh +10 ? over New England (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) Pro Game of the Year. Many have pointed to this game as the one where the Patriots will finally stumble and suffer their first loss of the season. After the way New England played the last two weeks against average teams (Philly, Baltimore) I am now starting to believe that might be the case. New England has not come close to covering the spread in the last two weeks and this line has already moved a field goal since it opened. Pittsburgh plays the style of offense that features a strong running game to keep the powerful New England offense off of the field. Pittsburgh needs this game more if they have any thoughts of catching Indianapolis for 2nd place in the conference and will go all out to try and win it. They play with the Pats for 60 minutes, losing by just a field goal. New England 27, Pittsburgh 24.
4 Unit Play. #22 Take San Francisco +8 ? over Minnesota (Sunday 4:05 pm Fox) The 49ers will be ready for some home cooking, after playing four of their last five games on the road. During that span, they did post an impressive road victory against the Arizona Cardinals, a team with a similar record to that of Minnesota. The Vikings have a stud running back in Peterson, but QB Jackson has yet to impress me and you can be sure the 49ers will make him beat them with his arm. Just too many points to be laying on the road, since the Vikings are not an elite team. Minnesota 21, San Francisco 20.
4 Unit Play. #30 Take Baltimore +9 ? over Indianapolis (Sunday 8:15 pm NBC) The Ravens find themselves in primetime yet again after nearly shocking the world by handing the Patriots their first loss of the year last Monday. That did not happen, but they outplayed New England and now face a banged up Indy team, just trying to tread water before getting healthy once the playoffs start. Expect another low scoring game similar to that in the playoffs last year when the Ravens held Manning to just 161 passing yards. Baltimore regroups after that meltdown and wins this game straight-up. Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 23.
3 Unit Play. #31 Take New Orleans -4 over Atlanta (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Atlanta Falcons will have a lot of their minds Monday, as this is the day their former superstar, Michael Vick, gets sentenced for his role in a dog fighting ring. This will give the Falcons a lot of negative attention and I expect them to come out flat against the Saints. This is a must win game for New Orleans if they have visions of making the playoffs, thus they will not be able to look past this 3-9 team. The Falcons do not have any consistency at quarterback and without that it is hard for teams to win games. New Orleans has already won the first meeting and now their offense is much more powerful and has the ability to light up the scoreboard for 60 minutes. The Falcons will not be able to keep up. New Orleans 31, Atlanta 17.
Alex Smart
Buffalo Bills -7.0
Sun Dec 9 '07 1:00p
Miamis offense behind rookie QB Josh Beck has looked extremely in cohesive, which has in turn put a lot of pressure on the defense that has been forced to stay on the field for long stretches. Their inefficiencies, became, very evident last week against the NY Jets at home , in an embarrassing 40-13 beat down, in a contest a lot of pundits thought might end their winless drought. Now the downtrodden Fins go on the road to cold hostile environment of Orchard Park against a Buffalo Bills team riding an emotional high off a 17-16 upset win as an underdog last week, vs the Washington Redskins. Bottom line: This maybe the Fins worst team of all time, and at a TD or less underdog, they make great fade material. Final notes & Key Trends: Buffalo is 17-6 ATS off a upset win as a Dog. Bills beat Dolphins 13-10 in their last visit to South Florida, on Nov 11 of this season, which does not bode well for a Miami team that is 4-14 ATS revenging home loss. Play on the Bills
THOUGHT YOU MIGHT LIKE THEM NOW
Spritzer's 2007 **NFL Game of the Year!
My GOY is a play on the Colts, minus points over Baltimore. The Ravens' players themselves, basically billed last week's game against New England as their Super Bowl. The meltdown at the end of the game, following a chain of numerous bad breaks was all I needed to see to lift the level of this game to the highest it could be. I was set to wager on the Colts, whether the Ravens won or lost that game. But the manner that they lost in should have this team's already fractured psyche in the dumper. It's pretty safe to say that the current roster couldn't be any more frustrated with their coaching staff than they already are. No one seems to see eye-to-eye with Billick any longer. The defense is not aging well and the secondary is a shell of what it was last season. The defense as a whole, is no longer intimidating. Peyton Manning, with TE Dallas Clark bringing back another dimension to this offense, will drill this once-proud stop-unit. Clark grabbed seven Manning passes last week and really opened things up for Reggie Wayne who finished with 158 receiving yards. Defensively, the Colts rank in the top-5 in points allowed, passing yardage allowed, and total yards allowed (277 per game). The Ravens got a huge game out of McGahee last week, yet still couldn't get over the top. They're 23rd in the league in total offense, and still don't have a true starting QB on the roster. Baltimore is averaging just 16 PPG during their current 6-game losing skid, and have been held to 14 points or less in four of those games. Off a physically and emotionally draining Monday night loss...and a draining season for that matter, I believe Baltimore will be as flat as they've been in seasons. I believe the Colts will cruise throughout on Sunday night with an easy win and cover. Colts 31 Ravens 9. The Colts are my NFL Game of the Year. Thanks! GL!.
LARRY NESS ' LEGEND Play-NFL
My LEGEND Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. The 6-6 Cards are tied with the Lions and Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC. That's heady territory considering the team has made the postseason just ONCE (in 1998) since moving to the desert in 1988. Meanwhile, with a win here, the Seahawks (who have won four straight games), can clinch their FOURTH straight NFC West title. Seattle is playing well, as Hasselbeck has thrown two TD passes in SIX of his last seven games, while averaging 275 YPG through the air. In the four-game winning streak, he's completed 62.2% with a 7-3 ratio. RB Morris averaged 84.3 YPG on the ground in the three games Alexander missed and added 5-for-64 LW, as Alexander returned (Shaun had 20-65). Arizona escaped LW with just a 27-21 win (almost lost it!), despite forcing four Cleveland TOs and enters this game with a 'ton' of key injuries. QB Warner is always a "hit away" from the sidelines, while his starting WRs are questionable. Boldin (likely to miss with a toe problem) and Fitzgerald (will be a game-time decision with a groin injury The Seattle pass D is 2nd in sacks with 36 (Warner better be careful), plus has allowed a league-low seven TDs (15 INTs). The Arizona D is without its best player in safety Adrian Wilson, starting CB Green and its best pass rusher (Berry). Seattle fell behind Arizona (Week 2) on the road 17-0 but took a 20-17 lead before losing 23-20. The Seahawks have been an excellent home team while making the playoffs these past four seasons and have won three straight at home coming in, outscoring opponents, 87-29. Seattle "smells blood" here. LEGEND on the Sea Seahawks.
Good Luck...
LARRY NESS' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 14
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. Head coach Norv Turner was on the "hot seat" at SD after a 1-3 start but is now expected to be offered a multi-year deal with the Chargers at 7-5. I'm NOT sold on the 7-5 Chargers "being back" just yet, as the team's lone quality win came against the Colts (23-21), a game in which SD had two kick return TDs, Peyton threw six INTs plus Indy's Vinatieri missed a 29-yard game-winning FG at the end! The team's other six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 28-44 (.389) entering Week 14! Rivers has thrown for less than 200 yards in FIVE of his last seven games and is nowhere near LY's form. Tomlinson's averaging 26 YPG less, has just 12 TDs through 12 games (had 29 LY) and his YPC is down from 5.2 to 4.4! Overall, the offense is averaging just 23.8 PPG, after averaging a league-best 30.8 LY! For the Titans, Vince Young is really coming on at QB, averaging 264 YPG through the air the last four games, after averaging a pathetic 122.1 through his first seven starts. He's also added 176 rushing yards (6.8 per) the last four weeks. The Titans broke a three-game losing streak LW, as DT Albert Haynesworth returned. In his absence, the team allowed 97 points (32.3 per) and 160 YPG rushing, going 0-3. With him, the Titans are 7-2 in '07, allowing 16.0 PPG and 71.9 YPG rushing (which would rank them 2nd in the NFL!). SD is just 2-4 SU on the road, losing at NE, GB, Min and Jax. The defense has allowed 32 PPG in those losses and like the offense, has not played anywhere near its '06 form. SD has some "wiggle room" in the weak AFC West, a luxury the 7-5 Titans don't have in the AFC South, where the Colts are 10-2 and the Jags are 8-4. On the sidelines, Fisher vs Turner is a complete mismatch. SD is also not helped by traveling again for the second straight week, while the Titans play their second straight at home. Las Vegas Insider on the Ten Titans.
Burns NFL
TITANS (-3 or better)
Game: San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tennessee Titans Reason: I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Chargers managed a win at KC last week. However, they've still been poor when playing Eastern games at 1:00 pm. Both their 2006 regular season losses cane when playing an "early" game. Prior to last week, the Chargers had lost all three games in that situation, losing at Green Bay, Minnesota and Jacksonville. Playing their second straight early game, facing what should be an extremely motivated Tennessee squad, I expect the Chargers to stumble here. In addition to having homefield advantage, I feel this game means more to the Titans. The Chargers obviously want to win. However, they can afford to lose and they'd still be in first place in the West, regardless of what the Broncos do. On the other hand, although they have the same record (7-5) as the Chargers, the Titans know they can't win their division (Colts are 10-2) and they're currently in a "dawg fight" with the Browns for the Wildcard spot, meaning that every game is extremely important. Not that they need any additional motivation, but the Titans won't have forgotten last season's embarrassing 40-7 loss, as nobody has beaten them that badly since. Note that while the Chargers' defense has allowed 23.5 points and 369.2 yards per game on the road, the Titans' defense has allowed only 16.5 points per game and a mere 263.7 yards per game. They should have star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth in the lineup and that makes the defense and team significantly better. In fact, the Titans are 7-2 with Haynesworth in the lineup this season and 13-3 the past 16. The Titans are coming off an important win over Houston and they've fared well in that situation, going 17-6 ATS the last 23 times they were coming off a home win over a divisional opponent and 32-17 the last 49 times they were coming off a division win overall. Behind another big defensive effort, look for the Titans to earn the important victory. *Personal Favorite
EAGLES (-3 or better)
Game: New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. The Giants know they can't win the division. However, they're pretty comfortable for the Wild Card. Conversely, this is truly a "must win" game for the Eagles as a loss will kill any remaining hope that they might have. They're also playing with "revenge" from a 16-3 loss at New York earlier this season. That's noteworthy as we find the Eagles at a terrific 44-22-3 ATS the last 69 times they faced a team which defeated them in the previous meeting, including 8-3 ATS since 2005. The Eagles have actually been playing very well the last four weeks. They beat Washington and Miami before losing very close games vs. the Seahawks and Patriots. Both those games could have been won if not for critical interceptions by A.J. Feeley. With McNabb expected to return, I expect the entire team to receive a boost. Note that the Eagles also expect to get back defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley and safety Quintin Mikell, both of whom missed the Seattle game with knee injuries. This is a well-coached and experienced Philadelphia team which has gone to the Super Bowl and which knows how to win at this time of year. Despite last week's loss, the Eagles remain a healthy 13-7 SU and 11-7-2 ATS their last 20 home games played in the month of December. Playing with "revenge," playing a "must win game", playing their second straight home game vs. a Giants team playing its second straight on the road, I feel the situation calls for a convincing win and cover for the Eagles. *Situational Blowout GOW
UNDER 49ers/vikings (37 or better)
Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers Game Time: 12/9/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Minnesota and San Francisco to finish UNDER the total. I lost with the Vikings "under" the total last week. However, I'm willing to give it a shot again here. Despite a really poor game from the Lions' defense, that game still would have stayed below the number if not for a 100 yard Minnesota kick-return touchdown. Despite that result, the UNDER remains a profitable 9-1 the last 10 times that the Vikings were coming off a double-digit victory and 6-1-1 the past eight times they were coming off consecutive victories. The Vikings have an excellent run defense as they are limiting teams to a league-low 70.5 rushing yards per game, having held the Lions to 23 last week. That causes many teams to abandon the run. However, the 49ers have such a conservative offense and rely so heavily on Frank Gore (one of the reason's for their struggles) that they'll continue to pound the ball on the ground, regardless of how ineffective it is. Note that the 49ers have seen the UNDER go 4-1 at home this season with those games averaging a mere 28.4 points. While the defense has been solid, San Francisco has averaged only 209 yards of offense in those games. I also played on the UNDER when the Vikings traveled here last season. That game produced a mere 12 points as the 49ers won by a score of 9-3. With a heavy dose of the run from both teams helping to chew up the clock, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair which falls below the number. *December Total of the Month
3 game exec report
JETS (+3 or better)
Game: Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets Game Time: 12/9/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: New York Jets Reason: I'm taking the points with the NEW YORK JETS. The Jets are starting to play their best football of the season with two wins in their past three games. Those victories were rather impressive too as one came vs. Pittsburgh and the other was a 41-13 blowout of Miami. It has been an excellent season for the Browns. However, the reality is that they've struggled on the road all season as they've gone just 2-4 while giving up 28 points per game. The two wins came at Baltimore and St. Louis and both were very fortunate. The victory at Baltimore came in overtime after the Browns hit a field goal off the upright to tie the game at the end of regulation. The win at St. Louis came vs. a severely banged up Rams team and Cleveland had to rally from a 14 point deficit and then hang on until the final seconds. With last week's loss at Arizona, the Browns are now 5-15 their last 20 road games. NONE of those five victories came by more than a touchdown and four of them came by four points or less. The point that I am trying to make is that I don't feel the Browns deserve to be favored by a field goal (or more) on the road vs. anyone, let alone an improving and revenge-minded New York team. Note that the Browns have just one win in their last eight December road games and that win came by two points at Oakland back in 2005. Meanwhile, the Jets are 4-0 ATS their last four December games and 13-7 ATS their last 20. Coming off arguably his best game as a pro, I expect Kellen Clemens to fare well against a porous Cleveland secondary which ranks 30th in the league. With the Browns playing their second straight on the road, I feel that situation favors the home underdog.
PANTHERS (+10 or better)
Game: Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with CAROLINA. The Panthers finally got the monkey off their back with a big home win last week. Conversely, the Jaguars come off a close loss to defending champion and division leader Indianapolis. The Panthers have played well on the road all season, going 4-2 SU/ATS. That brings them to a profitable 62-43-3 ATS on the road since they came into the league in 1995. During the same stretch, they've also gone a profitable 32-18 ATS in the month of December and 70-44-2 (61.4%) ATS when listed as underdogs. On the other hand, the Jaguars haven't been very profitable when listed as large favorites. In fact, they're just 7-13 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by more than eight points. A game vs. their division rivals (Colts) seems to take a toll on the Jaguars. Looking at the last few times that they were coming off a game vs. Indianapolis and we find that the Jaguars have lost by six points, lost by seven points and, most recently, won by a single point. These teams have faced each other three times since coming into the league at the same time. All three games were decided by 10 points or less and the most recent two games saw scores of 24-23 and 22-20. I feel that the Panthers are better than their record indicates and I'm expecting another close game which comes down to the wire.
LIONS (+10 or better)
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 12/9/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. I successfully played on the Cowboys in their win over Green Bay. Off that monumental victory, and with rival Philadelphia (Owens' old team) on deck, I expect them to find it difficult to get emotionally "fired up" for the lowly Lions. Conversely, I expect a passionate effort from the Lions, as they've been embarrassed one too many times and are in danger of falling below the 500 mark and out of the wildcard race. Note that the Lions are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as double-digit underdogs, winning two of those games outright. The most recent of those victories came against these same Cowboys last season, 39-31 at Dallas. That result should give the Lions confidence that they can compete with and beat this year's team. The Lions have only been beaten by more than 10 points once in their last 11 December home games. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle here, improving to 19-7 ATS the last 26 times they were coming off three or more consecutive losses.
Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take #122 Seattle (-7) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
4.5-Unit Play. Take #113 Pittsburgh (+11) over New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
4-Unit Play. Take #110 Philadelphia (-2.5) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
3-Unit Play. Take #115 San Diego (Pk) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
3-Unit Play. Take #103 Carolina (+11) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
2.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 37.0 Kansas City at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
Take #126 New York Jets (+3.5) over Cleveland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 9)
Everyone and their sister is on the Browns in this game ? so we?re going the other way. This is Cleveland?s fourth road game in the last five weeks and its fifth in the last seven weeks. I think they come out a bit flat here against a Jets squad that is 2-1 and playing better since its bye week.
Take #131 New Orleans (-4.5) over Atlanta (8:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 10)
The Falcons are simply not capable of competing along the offensive and defensive lines. They have been decimated at the point of attack and shouldn?t be able to hold up against a Saints team still clinging to postseason hopes. Atlanta has turned to Chris Redman as the starter, and something tells me that isn?t going to help. I expect a weak crowd at the Georgia Dome and I?m looking for another primetime beat down for the Falcons.
Docs - Paid and confirmed
3 Unit Play. #3 Take Miami +7 over Buffalo (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Dolphins laid an egg last week against the Jets, but have played better in the two proceeding weeks, covering both of those games. The Bills do not do anything exceptionally well and thus will not be able to light-up the scoreboard against a decent Dolphins defense. They did not score a touchdown last week against Washington. If the Dolphins do not beat themselves with turnovers, they will stay in the game throughout and keep it within a field goal. Buffalo 20, Miami 17.
6 Unit Play. #15 Take Pittsburgh +10 ? over New England (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) Pro Game of the Year. Many have pointed to this game as the one where the Patriots will finally stumble and suffer their first loss of the season. After the way New England played the last two weeks against average teams (Philly, Baltimore) I am now starting to believe that might be the case. New England has not come close to covering the spread in the last two weeks and this line has already moved a field goal since it opened. Pittsburgh plays the style of offense that features a strong running game to keep the powerful New England offense off of the field. Pittsburgh needs this game more if they have any thoughts of catching Indianapolis for 2nd place in the conference and will go all out to try and win it. They play with the Pats for 60 minutes, losing by just a field goal. New England 27, Pittsburgh 24.
4 Unit Play. #22 Take San Francisco +8 ? over Minnesota (Sunday 4:05 pm Fox) The 49ers will be ready for some home cooking, after playing four of their last five games on the road. During that span, they did post an impressive road victory against the Arizona Cardinals, a team with a similar record to that of Minnesota. The Vikings have a stud running back in Peterson, but QB Jackson has yet to impress me and you can be sure the 49ers will make him beat them with his arm. Just too many points to be laying on the road, since the Vikings are not an elite team. Minnesota 21, San Francisco 20.
4 Unit Play. #30 Take Baltimore +9 ? over Indianapolis (Sunday 8:15 pm NBC) The Ravens find themselves in primetime yet again after nearly shocking the world by handing the Patriots their first loss of the year last Monday. That did not happen, but they outplayed New England and now face a banged up Indy team, just trying to tread water before getting healthy once the playoffs start. Expect another low scoring game similar to that in the playoffs last year when the Ravens held Manning to just 161 passing yards. Baltimore regroups after that meltdown and wins this game straight-up. Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 23.
3 Unit Play. #31 Take New Orleans -4 over Atlanta (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Atlanta Falcons will have a lot of their minds Monday, as this is the day their former superstar, Michael Vick, gets sentenced for his role in a dog fighting ring. This will give the Falcons a lot of negative attention and I expect them to come out flat against the Saints. This is a must win game for New Orleans if they have visions of making the playoffs, thus they will not be able to look past this 3-9 team. The Falcons do not have any consistency at quarterback and without that it is hard for teams to win games. New Orleans has already won the first meeting and now their offense is much more powerful and has the ability to light up the scoreboard for 60 minutes. The Falcons will not be able to keep up. New Orleans 31, Atlanta 17.
Alex Smart
Buffalo Bills -7.0
Sun Dec 9 '07 1:00p
Miamis offense behind rookie QB Josh Beck has looked extremely in cohesive, which has in turn put a lot of pressure on the defense that has been forced to stay on the field for long stretches. Their inefficiencies, became, very evident last week against the NY Jets at home , in an embarrassing 40-13 beat down, in a contest a lot of pundits thought might end their winless drought. Now the downtrodden Fins go on the road to cold hostile environment of Orchard Park against a Buffalo Bills team riding an emotional high off a 17-16 upset win as an underdog last week, vs the Washington Redskins. Bottom line: This maybe the Fins worst team of all time, and at a TD or less underdog, they make great fade material. Final notes & Key Trends: Buffalo is 17-6 ATS off a upset win as a Dog. Bills beat Dolphins 13-10 in their last visit to South Florida, on Nov 11 of this season, which does not bode well for a Miami team that is 4-14 ATS revenging home loss. Play on the Bills
Anyone have Dr. Bob's nfl plays for tomorrow he has 2 3stars and 4 strong opinions. Thanks goodluck
For the NFL tomorrow I will have PPP, Dr Bob, Spreitzer, Kelso Sturgeon, Gameday, Pointwise, acemanpicks, wildcat, 10* totals club, preferred picks, north coast, docs, gold sheet, JB, underdog, ASA, winning points, golden goose, sebastian sports and black magic.
I get all of those plays at roughly 11:30 AM on Sunday, so if anyone planned on purchasing any of the above, don't bother, I will have them.
I get all of those plays at roughly 11:30 AM on Sunday, so if anyone planned on purchasing any of the above, don't bother, I will have them.
ATS LOCK
12 Minnesota (Downgraded from 20)
6 Wyoming
6 Ohio
5 Kansas
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Cal St. Northridge
3 Rhode Island
3 Duquesne
12 Minnesota (Downgraded from 20)
6 Wyoming
6 Ohio
5 Kansas
ATS FINANCIAL
4 Cal St. Northridge
3 Rhode Island
3 Duquesne
Kelso Sturgeon Sports
Saturday, December 8, 2007
COLLEGE BLOWOUT GAME OF WEEK
25 Units
DUKE (-22 ?) over Michigan
Prediction: Duke by 33-35
Starting Time: 2:00
TV: CBS
Played at Cameron Indoor Stadium (9,314) in Durham, North Carolina
Saturday, December 8, 2007
COLLEGE BLOWOUT GAME OF WEEK
25 Units
DUKE (-22 ?) over Michigan
Prediction: Duke by 33-35
Starting Time: 2:00
TV: CBS
Played at Cameron Indoor Stadium (9,314) in Durham, North Carolina
eddie, I have been looking for Arthur Ralph. His numbers are impressive and consistent. All plays 225-112. His daily superpick has a 90-47run and long term is 523-250. tia
Scott Spreitzer
CBB 25* Saturday Slam Dunk! *51-15, 77% ATS!
I'm laying the lumber with the Longhorns. The season of futility that began in the off-season, continues for the Rice Owls. Two assistant coaches left the program this past summer, and even coach Willis Wilson searched for a different address after 15 seasons in Houston. But Wilson didn't get the jobs he interviewed for, and reluctantly returned for season 16 at Rice. The Owls lost their top three scorers from last season and also have no one to lead the team at the point. Three different guards have taken a turn as floor general. None have panned out. In fact, every player who has appeared in more than one game for Rice has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio! I played against Rice earlier this season and cashed an 86-59 win with single-digit fave, Duquesne. While we are obviously paying a more expensive price this time, I expect another absolute blowout. Texas is seriously piling up the points, showing that there's life in Austin after Kevin Durant. The Longhorns are 8-0 to start the season, winning by an average score of 91.3-to-68.5 in their last six. Unlike Rice, Texas has strong leadership in the backcourt. Abrams, Augustin, and Mason are averaging a combined 11.8 assists per game, with just 5.7 turnovers per night. Five players are scoring between 11 and 19 PPG. Texas has also shown, they can win at any pace. The athletic and uptempo Longhorns beat UCLA at Bruin-speed (63-61) one of two wins at a slower pace. Rice will try to slow things down, but don't own the leadership on the floor to dictate the pace. The Longhorns are off for the next six days with a date next Saturday against Texas State, so there are no distractions from this one. UT beat a better Rice squad by 27 points two seasons ago. I expect an even bigger beaddown on Saturday. I'm laying the points with the Longhorns, my 25* release.
25* Texas Longhorns
CBB 25* Saturday Slam Dunk! *51-15, 77% ATS!
I'm laying the lumber with the Longhorns. The season of futility that began in the off-season, continues for the Rice Owls. Two assistant coaches left the program this past summer, and even coach Willis Wilson searched for a different address after 15 seasons in Houston. But Wilson didn't get the jobs he interviewed for, and reluctantly returned for season 16 at Rice. The Owls lost their top three scorers from last season and also have no one to lead the team at the point. Three different guards have taken a turn as floor general. None have panned out. In fact, every player who has appeared in more than one game for Rice has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio! I played against Rice earlier this season and cashed an 86-59 win with single-digit fave, Duquesne. While we are obviously paying a more expensive price this time, I expect another absolute blowout. Texas is seriously piling up the points, showing that there's life in Austin after Kevin Durant. The Longhorns are 8-0 to start the season, winning by an average score of 91.3-to-68.5 in their last six. Unlike Rice, Texas has strong leadership in the backcourt. Abrams, Augustin, and Mason are averaging a combined 11.8 assists per game, with just 5.7 turnovers per night. Five players are scoring between 11 and 19 PPG. Texas has also shown, they can win at any pace. The athletic and uptempo Longhorns beat UCLA at Bruin-speed (63-61) one of two wins at a slower pace. Rice will try to slow things down, but don't own the leadership on the floor to dictate the pace. The Longhorns are off for the next six days with a date next Saturday against Texas State, so there are no distractions from this one. UT beat a better Rice squad by 27 points two seasons ago. I expect an even bigger beaddown on Saturday. I'm laying the points with the Longhorns, my 25* release.
25* Texas Longhorns
Ok Sammy, you ask..... you get....
ARTHUR RALPH SPORTS REGULAR Plays:
84-45 run FOOTBALL !!
Trifecta Saturday !!
Iowa, Michigan State, So.Illinois
NFL Sunday ready @ 9am Sunday
Monthly specials save as you
U Win !! Hoop & FB Combo
right here with Arthur !
ARTHUR RALPH SPORTS REGULAR Plays:
84-45 run FOOTBALL !!
Trifecta Saturday !!
Iowa, Michigan State, So.Illinois
NFL Sunday ready @ 9am Sunday
Monthly specials save as you
U Win !! Hoop & FB Combo
right here with Arthur !
Master Sports
NBA
5* Minnesota (+10.5)
3* Chicago (+6.5)
3* Atlanta (over 200)
NCAA BB
4* Kentucky
3* Texas (-23)
3* BYU (-3) 4:00
NBA
5* Minnesota (+10.5)
3* Chicago (+6.5)
3* Atlanta (over 200)
NCAA BB
4* Kentucky
3* Texas (-23)
3* BYU (-3) 4:00
Wow Thanks eddie,don't know how you do it. If you ever come across his superpick please let us all know. Thanks again
Cal Sports
NCAA BB
Game of the Year
5* Rhode Island (+6) 7:00
4* W Michigan (-10.5) 2:00
4* Indiana (-8.5) 4:00
3* Texas (-22.5) 8:00
3* Kansas (-20) 2:00
3* St. Mary?s (-2.5) 3:00
3* S Illinois (-4) 7:00
3* Utah (+12.5) 6:00
NCAA BB
Game of the Year
5* Rhode Island (+6) 7:00
4* W Michigan (-10.5) 2:00
4* Indiana (-8.5) 4:00
3* Texas (-22.5) 8:00
3* Kansas (-20) 2:00
3* St. Mary?s (-2.5) 3:00
3* S Illinois (-4) 7:00
3* Utah (+12.5) 6:00
Jim Kruger
3 units Arizona/Illinois under 137.0
3 units Kent State -3.5
3 units Southern Illinois -3.0
3 units Arizona/Illinois under 137.0
3 units Kent State -3.5
3 units Southern Illinois -3.0
Ben Burns
NBA
UNDER Bulls/Celtics (179 or better)
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 12/8/2007 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. Both teams saw their respective games finish above the number last night. However, with both playing the second of back to back games, I'm expecting a significantly lower-scoring contest this evening. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Celtics are #1 in the league in terms of points allowed, while the Bulls rank third in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have seen two of their last three games stay below the number when they've played the second of back to back games. Those three games averaged 177 points. More impressive, we find the UNDER at a profitable 11-3 the last 14 times that the Bulls played the second of back to back games, including a perfect 3-0 mark so far this season. Those three games all fell below the number by double-digits with scores of 150, 184 and 171. Additionally, although the Celtics are obviously a much different team, its worth noting that the last four games in this series have ALL fallen below the total. I'm expecting another defensive affair with the UNDER improving to 6-1 the last seven times that the Bulls played on a Saturday. *Blue Chip
NCAA BB
ILLINOIS (-4 or better)
Game: Arizona vs. Illinois Game Time: 12/8/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Illinois Reason: I'm laying the points with ILLINOIS. The Wildcats are a talented athletic team and they've been playing well. However, I expect them to have their hands full against a well-coached and extremely motivated Illinois squad this afternoon. While dubbed a "neutral court game" by the NCAA, the Illini have an obvious advantage with the game being played at the United Center. The early start time also figures to work in their favor. I feel that Illinois coach Bruce Weber will really view this as a "statement game." His team has already lost both games when stepping up against top tier teams (Duke and Maryland) and they'll also be playing with "revenge" from a 84-72 loss at Arizona last season. The Illini had a big 16 point lead in that game so they know they can play with this team and Weber will be sure to remind them to maintain focus the entire way this time. Senior forward Brian Randle is an excellent defender and I expect him to be able to slow down Arizona star Chase Budinger. As a team, the Illini are always strong defensively and that's the case once again this season. They'll be slowing the tempo down here and that doesn't bode well for the Wildcats as they're just 9-19 ATS since 2005 when facing a team which allows 64 points or less per game. Look for the Illini to play their best game of the season as they avenge last year's loss and prove they can beat the nation's top teams.
BYU (-4 or better)
Game: Michigan State vs. BYU Game Time: 12/8/2007 4:00:00 PM Prediction: BYU Reason: I'm laying the points with BYU. The Spartans won 76-61 when these teams faced each other last season. However, that was at the Palace of Auburn Hills while today's game will be played at the Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. In other words, home crowd and elevation will both be on BYU's side. This is also a much stronger BYU team, one which has been playing very well. Indeed, the Cougars are 7-1 for the season and six of those victories came by double-digits. The lone loss came on a neutral court vs. North Carolina and that was only after the Cougars had beaten nationally ranked Louisville the previous day. The Cougars played the Tar Heels tough in that game too The Spartans are also playing well at 7-1. However, they're playing their second straight road game here and they don't have any victories as impressive as BYU's win over Louisville. The Spartans, who lost vs. UCLA, were tested by both Bradley (five point win) and Missouri (3 point win). They also beat Oakland by only four points and that game didn't even have a line. The Cougars, currently listed as slight favorites, are 38-3 SU and 27-13-1 ATS since 2005 when listed as favorites. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark in the 2007 calendar year when listed as favorites of four points or less. Behind the support of their home fans, look for the Cougars to continue their strong play and avenge last season's loss.
WISCONSIN (-4 or better)
Game: Marquette vs. Wisconsin Game Time: 12/8/2007 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Wisconsin Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN. This is a huge instate rivalry between two excellent programs. The Golden Eagles have been playing very well and bring a higher ranking into today's clash. They've got quickness across the board and scored a whopping 100 points in their last game. However, the Badgers have a size advantage and they've won four straight against the Golden Eagles at the Kohl Center, and two straight overall in the series. The Badgers size advantage figures to be even more pronounced if Senior F Dan Fitzgerald can't go for the Golden Eagles. Fitzgerald missed Marquette's last game with a sprained left wrist, and it's currently unclear if he'll play against Wisconsin. Without Fitzgerald the Golden Eagles are missing not only one of their best perimeter shooters but also another big body; at 6-foot-9 he is one of the team's most versatile players on the front line. Note that the Badgers, who start four players 6-foot-7 or taller, enter this game leading the Big Ten with a plus-13.1 rebounding margin and averaging 15.0 offensive rebounds. Both teams suffered their only loss of the season vs. Duke. Since Marquette played Duke very tough and Wisconsin was blown out, the perception will be that Marquette is the better team. I don't see it that way. Not at the Kohl Center, at least. In seven tries as underdogs of six points or less in the 2007 calendar year, the Golden Eagles have one just once, going 2-5 ATS. Meanwhile, the Badgers have won 28 in a row at the Kohl Center, the third-longest active home winning streak in the country and third-longest in school history. They're also 97-5 at home under Coach Ryan, including 13-2 against ranked opponents and 51-3 versus non-conference teams. Look for homecourt to be the difference as they slow down their guests and earn an important win and cover. *Main Event
NHL
NASHVILLE
Game: Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators Game Time: 12/8/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Nashville Predators Reason: I'm laying the price with NASHVILLE. The situation favors the Predators here. In addition to playing on home ice and playing with "revenge," the Predators also had yesterday off. The Ducks, on the other hand, come off a win at Chicago last night and will now be playing their third game in the past four nights, all in different cities. Note that the Ducks were outshot 42-22 last night and this will be the third time this season that the defending champions will have played a road game, after having played the previous day. They were 0-2 in the first two games, losing 5-4 at Pittsburgh and 5-1 at Edmonton. The Predators took both meetings here last season, winning 5-4 and 3-0. Look for them to have the fresher legs this evening as they avenge a 3-1 loss at Anaheim from six weeks ago. *Western Conf. GOM
NBA
UNDER Bulls/Celtics (179 or better)
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 12/8/2007 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. Both teams saw their respective games finish above the number last night. However, with both playing the second of back to back games, I'm expecting a significantly lower-scoring contest this evening. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Celtics are #1 in the league in terms of points allowed, while the Bulls rank third in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have seen two of their last three games stay below the number when they've played the second of back to back games. Those three games averaged 177 points. More impressive, we find the UNDER at a profitable 11-3 the last 14 times that the Bulls played the second of back to back games, including a perfect 3-0 mark so far this season. Those three games all fell below the number by double-digits with scores of 150, 184 and 171. Additionally, although the Celtics are obviously a much different team, its worth noting that the last four games in this series have ALL fallen below the total. I'm expecting another defensive affair with the UNDER improving to 6-1 the last seven times that the Bulls played on a Saturday. *Blue Chip
NCAA BB
ILLINOIS (-4 or better)
Game: Arizona vs. Illinois Game Time: 12/8/2007 12:00:00 PM Prediction: Illinois Reason: I'm laying the points with ILLINOIS. The Wildcats are a talented athletic team and they've been playing well. However, I expect them to have their hands full against a well-coached and extremely motivated Illinois squad this afternoon. While dubbed a "neutral court game" by the NCAA, the Illini have an obvious advantage with the game being played at the United Center. The early start time also figures to work in their favor. I feel that Illinois coach Bruce Weber will really view this as a "statement game." His team has already lost both games when stepping up against top tier teams (Duke and Maryland) and they'll also be playing with "revenge" from a 84-72 loss at Arizona last season. The Illini had a big 16 point lead in that game so they know they can play with this team and Weber will be sure to remind them to maintain focus the entire way this time. Senior forward Brian Randle is an excellent defender and I expect him to be able to slow down Arizona star Chase Budinger. As a team, the Illini are always strong defensively and that's the case once again this season. They'll be slowing the tempo down here and that doesn't bode well for the Wildcats as they're just 9-19 ATS since 2005 when facing a team which allows 64 points or less per game. Look for the Illini to play their best game of the season as they avenge last year's loss and prove they can beat the nation's top teams.
BYU (-4 or better)
Game: Michigan State vs. BYU Game Time: 12/8/2007 4:00:00 PM Prediction: BYU Reason: I'm laying the points with BYU. The Spartans won 76-61 when these teams faced each other last season. However, that was at the Palace of Auburn Hills while today's game will be played at the Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. In other words, home crowd and elevation will both be on BYU's side. This is also a much stronger BYU team, one which has been playing very well. Indeed, the Cougars are 7-1 for the season and six of those victories came by double-digits. The lone loss came on a neutral court vs. North Carolina and that was only after the Cougars had beaten nationally ranked Louisville the previous day. The Cougars played the Tar Heels tough in that game too The Spartans are also playing well at 7-1. However, they're playing their second straight road game here and they don't have any victories as impressive as BYU's win over Louisville. The Spartans, who lost vs. UCLA, were tested by both Bradley (five point win) and Missouri (3 point win). They also beat Oakland by only four points and that game didn't even have a line. The Cougars, currently listed as slight favorites, are 38-3 SU and 27-13-1 ATS since 2005 when listed as favorites. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark in the 2007 calendar year when listed as favorites of four points or less. Behind the support of their home fans, look for the Cougars to continue their strong play and avenge last season's loss.
WISCONSIN (-4 or better)
Game: Marquette vs. Wisconsin Game Time: 12/8/2007 6:00:00 PM Prediction: Wisconsin Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN. This is a huge instate rivalry between two excellent programs. The Golden Eagles have been playing very well and bring a higher ranking into today's clash. They've got quickness across the board and scored a whopping 100 points in their last game. However, the Badgers have a size advantage and they've won four straight against the Golden Eagles at the Kohl Center, and two straight overall in the series. The Badgers size advantage figures to be even more pronounced if Senior F Dan Fitzgerald can't go for the Golden Eagles. Fitzgerald missed Marquette's last game with a sprained left wrist, and it's currently unclear if he'll play against Wisconsin. Without Fitzgerald the Golden Eagles are missing not only one of their best perimeter shooters but also another big body; at 6-foot-9 he is one of the team's most versatile players on the front line. Note that the Badgers, who start four players 6-foot-7 or taller, enter this game leading the Big Ten with a plus-13.1 rebounding margin and averaging 15.0 offensive rebounds. Both teams suffered their only loss of the season vs. Duke. Since Marquette played Duke very tough and Wisconsin was blown out, the perception will be that Marquette is the better team. I don't see it that way. Not at the Kohl Center, at least. In seven tries as underdogs of six points or less in the 2007 calendar year, the Golden Eagles have one just once, going 2-5 ATS. Meanwhile, the Badgers have won 28 in a row at the Kohl Center, the third-longest active home winning streak in the country and third-longest in school history. They're also 97-5 at home under Coach Ryan, including 13-2 against ranked opponents and 51-3 versus non-conference teams. Look for homecourt to be the difference as they slow down their guests and earn an important win and cover. *Main Event
NHL
NASHVILLE
Game: Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators Game Time: 12/8/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Nashville Predators Reason: I'm laying the price with NASHVILLE. The situation favors the Predators here. In addition to playing on home ice and playing with "revenge," the Predators also had yesterday off. The Ducks, on the other hand, come off a win at Chicago last night and will now be playing their third game in the past four nights, all in different cities. Note that the Ducks were outshot 42-22 last night and this will be the third time this season that the defending champions will have played a road game, after having played the previous day. They were 0-2 in the first two games, losing 5-4 at Pittsburgh and 5-1 at Edmonton. The Predators took both meetings here last season, winning 5-4 and 3-0. Look for them to have the fresher legs this evening as they avenge a 3-1 loss at Anaheim from six weeks ago. *Western Conf. GOM
Yeah I have the superpick too but I forgot to post it, my bad
West Virginia is the Arthur Ralph SUperpick
West Virginia is the Arthur Ralph SUperpick
Sebastian
150* Minnesota -16
50* BYU -2
50* W.Virginia -11
20* Kansas -20
20* Duke -22
20* Wisconsin -2.5
20* Illinois -2
20* Ohio U -14,
20* Rhode Island +6
Pro
20* Boston/Chicago Under 182
150* Minnesota -16
50* BYU -2
50* W.Virginia -11
20* Kansas -20
20* Duke -22
20* Wisconsin -2.5
20* Illinois -2
20* Ohio U -14,
20* Rhode Island +6
Pro
20* Boston/Chicago Under 182
