Matt Fargo
PICK: Michigan State
Your pick will be graded at: 2.5
TITLE: 3-Game CBB Pack ? 66% YTD
REASON FOR PICK: Both Michigan St. and BYU come into this game with identical 7-1 records but we need to decipher which 7-1 is better. Both losses have been to quality teams as Michigan St. lost by five to UCLA while BYU lost to North Carolina by 10 points. Overall, the Spartans have the edge in strength of schedule and have the slight edge in most statistical categories. It comes down to matchups and that is where Michigan St. dominates. Note that this game is not in BYU but on a neutral floor, a big disadvantage for the Cougars.
Last season, Michigan St. won this meeting going away as the stifling defense was too much for the Cougars. Drew Neitzel had a monster game with 22 points and seven assists while the frontcourt combo of Marquise Gray and Goran Sutton combined for 25 points and 23 rebounds. Add Raymar Morgan to the inside, who missed last season?s game, and Michigan St. has a combination that can slow down Trent Plaisted, who had a big game last year with 23 points and seven boards.
Michigan St. is holding its opponents to 37.7 percent shooting overall, and 30.5 percent shooting from 3-point range. Last year, it allowed opponents to shoot just 38.4 percent, the lowest percentage since 1958-59. The Spartans have held six of eight opponents below 40 percent shooting, including the last three. Offensively, Michigan St. is shooting a 50 percent from the field this season, having shot better than 50 percent in five games. It is also shooting 75.1 percent from the foul line, second best in the conference.
Through eight games, the Spartans nearly as many offensive boards (115) as its opponents have defensive rebounds (127), as they grab 47.5 percent of their own missed shots. They had 21 offensive rebounds in their last game against Bradley making it three games with 20 or more offensive rebounds. This is an experienced Michigan St. team that brings most everyone back as it has returned 89.8 percent of its scoring, 92.6 percent of its rebounding, 93.2 percent of its assists and 89.4 percent of its minutes. Play Michigan St. Spartans 2.5 Unit
Austin Peay at Evansville Dec 8 2007 8:05PM
PICK: Austin Peay
Your pick will be graded at: 1
TITLE: 3-Game CBB Pack ? 66% YTD
REASON FOR PICK: Evansville has had a rough time of it since the turn of the century as last season?s 14-17 record made it seven straight losing seasons for the Purple Aces. Don?t expect that to change this season as Evansville is breaking in a new coach, a new system and several new players. If there was going to be a turnaround, it would have happened last season and it looked like it might with an 8-3 start but it fell apart once again. Things have not started quite so good this year.
Three starters needed to be replaced for Evansville and they weren?t just any starters. It has had to deal with the loss of three of the team's top four scorers from 2006-07. Among the departed were second-team All-Valley forward Matt Webster, center Bradley Strickland and guard Kyle Anslinger as all three were 1,000 points-plus scorers in their careers. Right now the Purple Aces have only two players averaging double figures as the offense is averaging just 56.2 ppg on 42.5 percent shooting.
For a team that won 20 games, has all five starters back from last season and is playing with a chip on its shoulder after losing to Eastern Kentucky by a point in the OVC Championship last year, Austin Peay has come out of the gates pretty slow. However the Governors have won two straight games and look to be turning the corner. Forwards Drake Reed and Fernandez Lockett are All-OVC performers with the former a Player of the Year candidate. The duo is averaging a combined 26.7 ppg and 142 rpg.
Austin Peay gets a line it can deal with as a win means a cover. This is also a revenge game for the Governors who remember Evansville coming into Dave Aaron Arena and winning by five points, one of only two home losses last season. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off two no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite, on Saturday games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Look for some big payback on Saturday. Play Austin Peay Governors 3 Units
Northern Colorado at Denver Dec 8 2007 6:00PM
PICK: Denver
Your pick will be graded at: 2
TITLE: 3-Game CBB Pack ? 66% YTD
REASON FOR PICK: I went against Northern Colorado last weekend at home and that was a mistake. The Bears now hit the road for just the second time this season and the first in over three weeks. They will be facing a Pioneers team they have already defeated once this season and we all know how tough it is beating a team a second time when going on the road. The Bears have played a schedule ranked 275th in the country while Denver has played a tougher slate so far, coming in at 132nd in the nation.
Denver is 2-4 on the season which may not sound great but it has already gotten half way to its win total from all of last season. This is their third home game of the season after splitting the first two, losing to Colorado by 10 and beating a solid Wyoming team. The offense has averaged only 43.3 ppg over its last three games but that is in part due to the new system in place. The Princeton-style offense is taking shape by former Princeton coach Joe Scott no less.
Taking a look at the offense of Northern Colorado and you see that the Bears are shooting 44.6 percent from the floor while averaging 68.8 ppg which come across as good numbers. However, all of that success is attributed to just one game against VMI. The Cadets are the modern day Loyola-Marymount Lions of the late 80?s as they run and don?t play defense. The Bears shot 68 percent and scored 104 points in that game. Take that mockery out and the numbers drop to 63 ppg and 40.3 percent shooting.
Denver has the edge in two all-important categories ? free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. The Bears are hitting only 64.4 percent from the stripe and have a putrid 0.64 ratio. The latter is part of a solid situation favoring the Pioneers based on the fact that Northern Colorado is averaging 19.2 tpg. Play against road teams as a favorite or pick that are committing 18 or more turnovers per game. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Play Denver Pioneers 2 Units
