Saturday service plays 10/4/08
- Thread starter MLBKING
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- Apr 7, 2008
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Wunderdog
Game: Oklahoma at Baylor (Saturday 10/04 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baylor +27 (-110)
Oklahoma, the new #1 team in the nation, is very good. But are they, on the road, 27 points better than Baylor? Perhaps they are, but will they play that way before Texas weekend? Next week's showdown is quickly becoming a stage for who will be in the National Championship Game. It's hard to imagine Oklahoma being 100% focused on this game. Baylor is not the doormat they have been in the past. Robert Griffin is difficult to defend, as he can throw down field and he keeps the defense off balance with his abilty to run. He has some very good numbers for a freshman (seven passing TDs, five rushing TDs and no INTs). Jay Finley has found daylight out of the backfield at 8.1 yards per carry, and Baylor should be able to put some points up here. The question is how much energy is Oklahoma willing to spend with the biggest game of the year on deck? I say not enough to cover four touchdowns on the road. History agrees as the Sooners are 5-11 ATS the week before Texas the last sixteen years. Add in the fact that Baylor is well rested (and presumably well prepared) off a bye, and we have some real value on the dog here.
Game: Oklahoma at Baylor (Saturday 10/04 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Baylor +27 (-110)
Oklahoma, the new #1 team in the nation, is very good. But are they, on the road, 27 points better than Baylor? Perhaps they are, but will they play that way before Texas weekend? Next week's showdown is quickly becoming a stage for who will be in the National Championship Game. It's hard to imagine Oklahoma being 100% focused on this game. Baylor is not the doormat they have been in the past. Robert Griffin is difficult to defend, as he can throw down field and he keeps the defense off balance with his abilty to run. He has some very good numbers for a freshman (seven passing TDs, five rushing TDs and no INTs). Jay Finley has found daylight out of the backfield at 8.1 yards per carry, and Baylor should be able to put some points up here. The question is how much energy is Oklahoma willing to spend with the biggest game of the year on deck? I say not enough to cover four touchdowns on the road. History agrees as the Sooners are 5-11 ATS the week before Texas the last sixteen years. Add in the fact that Baylor is well rested (and presumably well prepared) off a bye, and we have some real value on the dog here.
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CKO
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 2 - 6, 2008 No. 6
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *MINNESOTA over Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 40 - Indiana 21
CKO scouts expect Minnesota HC Tim Brewster to rally his club off Ohio State loss for what is a crucial game in Minny?s quest for bowl eligibility. Gophers have ample weapons to lay open a banged-up Indiana ?D?, which has suffered injuries to three 2ndary starters and its nickel back and has yielded 960 total yards & 84 pts. in last 2 games vs. Ball St. & Michigan State. Minny QB Adam Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing and is more efficient this season, with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio (was 24-19 LY). WR Eric Decker not only leads the Big Ten in receptions, but o.c. Mike Dunbar is using him as a runner as well (8 carries, 77 YR last 4 games). Running game hasn?t fallen off much after injury to Duane Bennett, as true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (90 ypg rushing & 5 TDs last 3 games). Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who was shaken up last week, has seen his passing production take a nosedive this season from 234 ypg LY to 162 in ?08. Obviously, he misses departed WRs James Hardy & James Bailey, while new lead receiver Ray Fisher has just 4 catches this season.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 34 - Texas Tech 31
Long-time Big XII scouts report oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to offensively-flashy Texas Tech (leads nation in passing), which has feasted on ?cupcakes? and defensively-inept teams so far in ?08. With
KSU?s demanding HC Prince reportedly spending extra time on tackling fundamentals and techniques after too many misses the past two weeks, doubt Red Raider QB Harrell and mates maintain those eye-popping numbers in hostile Manhattan. Meanwhile, Wildcats 6-6, 260 dual-threat QB Freeman (67%, 11 TDs, 2 ints., hasn?t been sacked yet) should fully exploit a still-vulnerable TT defense that yielded 490 yds. vs. Nevada. With Wildcats ground attack suddenly having much more pop with converted 6-3, 215 soph WR Lamark Brown rumbling for 137 yds. in his debut week ago, Prince?s rising squad capable of minor upset. Red Raiders a woeful 1-7 as 7-pt. or fewer road favorite since ?03.
10 STANFORD over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
STANFORD 23 - *Notre Dame 20
The pointspread is rising on this game after Notre Dame pulled away from inconsistent Purdue last week. But Pac-10 scouts report things are finally starting to ?slow down? for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who rallied the
Cardinal in the second half two weeks ago for a 23-10 victory over stubborn San Jose and the threw three TD passes in last week?s 35-28 road triumph at desperate Washington. Stanford power back Toby Gerhart (check status) suffered a mild concussion in that game. But sr. Anthony Kimble is the former starter at the same spot! And, with eight srs. on a defense that returned nearly intact from LY, you can be sure it won?t lose its poise at South Bend. The Cardinal has already taken on Oregon State, Arizona State, and TCU?all likely 2008 bowl teams. And you can be sure HC Jim Harbaugh (the former Michigan QB) will have the visitor properly motivated.
10 *WISCONSIN over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 27 - Ohio State 19
Wisconsin is coming off a distasteful loss at Michigan, in which the Badgers gave up an uncharacteristic four turnovers and blew a 19-0 lead. Intense Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema will have his team ready to ?man up? against Ohio State this week, and he won?t let the Badgers forget that they led the Buckeyes 17-10 late in the third quarter before yielding four TDs in the last 18 minutes in ?07. Wisconsin has been a powerful play in Madison, notching 27-1 SU & 17-9 spread marks the last 4+ seasons (and the Badgers are 6-2 vs. the number following their last 8 losses). Ohio State QB Pryor has added something to the Buckeye attack, but this is a hostile environment for a youngster. OSU defense not bringing the same type of pressure it has in past, and Buckeyes might look more like they did in trip to USC than they did in 1st 3 Qs vs. Minny.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
MARSHALL (+3?) vs. Cincinnati (Friday night)?Cincy QB injuries and what figures to be a wild home crowd pulling for Thundering Herd in an ESPN extravaganza reasons enough to take a flyer with Marshall...
COLORADO STATE (-2) vs. Nevada-Las Vegas?The real UNLV defense showed up against Nevada and allowed 444 yards on the ground. CSU 5th-yr. sr. RB Gartrell Johnson is looking for a career high...
AKRON (-3?) at Kent State?Kent State is 0-11 in last 11 games on the line, and leading RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two games with an
ankle injury. Akron is 6-1-1 vs. the number last 8, and QB Jacquemain throws for 200 yds. or more every time out...
UTEP (+8) at Southern Miss?UTEP QBVittatoe looked sharp vs. Central Florida, and the aggressive Miner defense has made some big plays the last two games. USM defense yielding an uncharacteristically high 27 ppg and ranks 110th vs. the run...J
JACKSONVILLE (estimated line: -3) vs. Pittsburgh?Jaguars have had the Steelers number, winning last four meetings, and Pittsburgh coming off important Monday night AFC North clash against Baltimore
CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and
PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 Oct. 2 - 6, 2008 No. 6
CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *MINNESOTA over Indiana
Late Score Forecast:
*MINNESOTA 40 - Indiana 21
CKO scouts expect Minnesota HC Tim Brewster to rally his club off Ohio State loss for what is a crucial game in Minny?s quest for bowl eligibility. Gophers have ample weapons to lay open a banged-up Indiana ?D?, which has suffered injuries to three 2ndary starters and its nickel back and has yielded 960 total yards & 84 pts. in last 2 games vs. Ball St. & Michigan State. Minny QB Adam Weber is 2nd in the Big Ten in passing and is more efficient this season, with an 8-2 TD-int. ratio (was 24-19 LY). WR Eric Decker not only leads the Big Ten in receptions, but o.c. Mike Dunbar is using him as a runner as well (8 carries, 77 YR last 4 games). Running game hasn?t fallen off much after injury to Duane Bennett, as true frosh DeLeon Eskridge (90 ypg rushing & 5 TDs last 3 games). Indiana QB Kellen Lewis, who was shaken up last week, has seen his passing production take a nosedive this season from 234 ypg LY to 162 in ?08. Obviously, he misses departed WRs James Hardy & James Bailey, while new lead receiver Ray Fisher has just 4 catches this season.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS STATE 34 - Texas Tech 31
Long-time Big XII scouts report oddsmakers paying a bit too much respect to offensively-flashy Texas Tech (leads nation in passing), which has feasted on ?cupcakes? and defensively-inept teams so far in ?08. With
KSU?s demanding HC Prince reportedly spending extra time on tackling fundamentals and techniques after too many misses the past two weeks, doubt Red Raider QB Harrell and mates maintain those eye-popping numbers in hostile Manhattan. Meanwhile, Wildcats 6-6, 260 dual-threat QB Freeman (67%, 11 TDs, 2 ints., hasn?t been sacked yet) should fully exploit a still-vulnerable TT defense that yielded 490 yds. vs. Nevada. With Wildcats ground attack suddenly having much more pop with converted 6-3, 215 soph WR Lamark Brown rumbling for 137 yds. in his debut week ago, Prince?s rising squad capable of minor upset. Red Raiders a woeful 1-7 as 7-pt. or fewer road favorite since ?03.
10 STANFORD over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
STANFORD 23 - *Notre Dame 20
The pointspread is rising on this game after Notre Dame pulled away from inconsistent Purdue last week. But Pac-10 scouts report things are finally starting to ?slow down? for Stanford QB Tavita Pritchard, who rallied the
Cardinal in the second half two weeks ago for a 23-10 victory over stubborn San Jose and the threw three TD passes in last week?s 35-28 road triumph at desperate Washington. Stanford power back Toby Gerhart (check status) suffered a mild concussion in that game. But sr. Anthony Kimble is the former starter at the same spot! And, with eight srs. on a defense that returned nearly intact from LY, you can be sure it won?t lose its poise at South Bend. The Cardinal has already taken on Oregon State, Arizona State, and TCU?all likely 2008 bowl teams. And you can be sure HC Jim Harbaugh (the former Michigan QB) will have the visitor properly motivated.
10 *WISCONSIN over Ohio State
Late Score Forecast:
*WISCONSIN 27 - Ohio State 19
Wisconsin is coming off a distasteful loss at Michigan, in which the Badgers gave up an uncharacteristic four turnovers and blew a 19-0 lead. Intense Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema will have his team ready to ?man up? against Ohio State this week, and he won?t let the Badgers forget that they led the Buckeyes 17-10 late in the third quarter before yielding four TDs in the last 18 minutes in ?07. Wisconsin has been a powerful play in Madison, notching 27-1 SU & 17-9 spread marks the last 4+ seasons (and the Badgers are 6-2 vs. the number following their last 8 losses). Ohio State QB Pryor has added something to the Buckeye attack, but this is a hostile environment for a youngster. OSU defense not bringing the same type of pressure it has in past, and Buckeyes might look more like they did in trip to USC than they did in 1st 3 Qs vs. Minny.
HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games):
MARSHALL (+3?) vs. Cincinnati (Friday night)?Cincy QB injuries and what figures to be a wild home crowd pulling for Thundering Herd in an ESPN extravaganza reasons enough to take a flyer with Marshall...
COLORADO STATE (-2) vs. Nevada-Las Vegas?The real UNLV defense showed up against Nevada and allowed 444 yards on the ground. CSU 5th-yr. sr. RB Gartrell Johnson is looking for a career high...
AKRON (-3?) at Kent State?Kent State is 0-11 in last 11 games on the line, and leading RB Eugene Jarvis has missed the last two games with an
ankle injury. Akron is 6-1-1 vs. the number last 8, and QB Jacquemain throws for 200 yds. or more every time out...
UTEP (+8) at Southern Miss?UTEP QBVittatoe looked sharp vs. Central Florida, and the aggressive Miner defense has made some big plays the last two games. USM defense yielding an uncharacteristically high 27 ppg and ranks 110th vs. the run...J
JACKSONVILLE (estimated line: -3) vs. Pittsburgh?Jaguars have had the Steelers number, winning last four meetings, and Pittsburgh coming off important Monday night AFC North clash against Baltimore
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Pointwise:
College Key Selections...
1--OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas A & M 54-20
1--TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2--Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3--NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4--ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4--VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5--Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5--Nevada over IDAHO 52-17
College Key Selections...
1--OKLAHOMA STATE over Texas A & M 54-20
1--TCU over San Diego State 54-10
2--Missouri over NEBRASKA 45-20
3--NEW MEXICO over Wyoming 38-7
4--ARIZONA over Washington 44-14
4--VANDERBILT (+) over Auburn 17-14
5--Texas over COLORADO 45-17
5--Nevada over IDAHO 52-17
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SCOTT FERRALL
NCAA Week Six Free Picks
Wisconsin +2.5 from Ohio St--Pryor is going to learn the hard way about being a freshman in Mad Town
Colorado St -2 to UNLV--The Rams pull it off in Fort Collins against the Rebels
Texas Tech -7.5 at Kansas St--The Raiders go to Manhattan and stay unbeaten
Michigan St -9 to Iowa--The Spartans running game goes straight at the Hawkeyes in East Lansing
Maryland -13.5 at Virginia--Ralph's boys aren't to shabby at 4-1 and the Cavs pretty much suck at 1-3
Tulane -19 to Army--The Green Wave should handle to winless Cadets
Air Force -6 to Navy--because they are in Colorado Springs--dogfight decided on the ground
Tennessee -15.5 to Northern Illinois--The Vols finally look good--too bad it's against this team
Baylor +27 from Oklahoma--why the hell not ? I love this kid Griffith (Bears QB)--He's all over the place and tough to catch up with. The Sooners win but don't cover
Kentucky +16.5 from Alabama--The Tide are coming off the huge win over Georgia and some believe they are #1, but not after this performance
NCAA Week Six Free Picks
Wisconsin +2.5 from Ohio St--Pryor is going to learn the hard way about being a freshman in Mad Town
Colorado St -2 to UNLV--The Rams pull it off in Fort Collins against the Rebels
Texas Tech -7.5 at Kansas St--The Raiders go to Manhattan and stay unbeaten
Michigan St -9 to Iowa--The Spartans running game goes straight at the Hawkeyes in East Lansing
Maryland -13.5 at Virginia--Ralph's boys aren't to shabby at 4-1 and the Cavs pretty much suck at 1-3
Tulane -19 to Army--The Green Wave should handle to winless Cadets
Air Force -6 to Navy--because they are in Colorado Springs--dogfight decided on the ground
Tennessee -15.5 to Northern Illinois--The Vols finally look good--too bad it's against this team
Baylor +27 from Oklahoma--why the hell not ? I love this kid Griffith (Bears QB)--He's all over the place and tough to catch up with. The Sooners win but don't cover
Kentucky +16.5 from Alabama--The Tide are coming off the huge win over Georgia and some believe they are #1, but not after this performance
Does anyone have these guys plays for Saturday?
Does anyone have these guys plays for Saturday?
Ben Burns
Big Al McMordie
John Ryan
Scott Spreitzer
Thanks and good luck to all.:mj06:
Does anyone have these guys plays for Saturday?
Ben Burns
Big Al McMordie
John Ryan
Scott Spreitzer
Thanks and good luck to all.:mj06:
Do you by chance have the breakdown of what the spread needs to be for these to stay at the stars they are at? If not, thanks for getting these up early!
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Alan Eastman
$1000 Take #338 Vanderbilt (+4) over Auburn (6 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
$300.00 Take #310 Utah (-11) over Oregon State (9 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2)
$500.00 Take #331 Texas Tech (-7.5) over Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
$300.00 Take #340 Illinois (+2.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
$1000 Take #338 Vanderbilt (+4) over Auburn (6 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
$300.00 Take #310 Utah (-11) over Oregon State (9 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 2)
$500.00 Take #331 Texas Tech (-7.5) over Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
$300.00 Take #340 Illinois (+2.5) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 4)
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Dave Cokin
(331) Texas Tech
(332) Kansas St
Take "(331) Texas Tech"
Texas Tech has yet to be tested, and some observers therefore consider the Red Raiders to be a bit overrated at this juncture. I don't think that's the case and I'm of the belief this is going to be Mike Leach's best team yet. There's been a subtle change in the Texas Tech attack this season. In the past, they've been unwilling or unable to feature any consistent running game. But this season we're seeing the Red Raiders balancing things a bit more. Make no mistake, this team will still live and die by the pass. But the fact Leach is showing more faith in the run will enable them to protect leads better. The Tech defense is also better than it has been previously. Kansas State can't trade with the Red Raiders offensively, and they've been absolutely porous defensively. I don't see this one being especially close, even in Manhattan, and I'm laying the points with Texas Tech.
(331) Texas Tech
(332) Kansas St
Take "(331) Texas Tech"
Texas Tech has yet to be tested, and some observers therefore consider the Red Raiders to be a bit overrated at this juncture. I don't think that's the case and I'm of the belief this is going to be Mike Leach's best team yet. There's been a subtle change in the Texas Tech attack this season. In the past, they've been unwilling or unable to feature any consistent running game. But this season we're seeing the Red Raiders balancing things a bit more. Make no mistake, this team will still live and die by the pass. But the fact Leach is showing more faith in the run will enable them to protect leads better. The Tech defense is also better than it has been previously. Kansas State can't trade with the Red Raiders offensively, and they've been absolutely porous defensively. I don't see this one being especially close, even in Manhattan, and I'm laying the points with Texas Tech.
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WILD BILL
NC State +9 1/2 (5 units)
South Carolina +3 (5 units)
Vandy +4 1/2 (5 units)
Nebraska +10 1/2 (5 units)
Colorado +13 1/2 (5 units)
San Diego St +24 (5 units)
Ohio St -2 (5 units)
Washington U +22 (5 units)
Washington State +17 (5 units)
Minn-Indiana Over 58 (5 units)
Oklahoma-Baylor Over 62 1/2 (5 units)
Tulane-Army Over 41 1/2 (5 units)
K State-Texas Tech Over 66 (5 units)
Cal-Arizona State Over 55 (5 units)
AF-Navy Over 52 1/2 (5 units)
Toledo-Ball State Over 65 (5 units)
Tulsa-Rice Under 80 (5 units)
UCLA-Washington State Over 56 1/2 (5 units)
Kentucky +16 1/2 (5 units)
Texas A&m +25 (5 units)
Rice +16 (5 units)
NC State +9 1/2 (5 units)
South Carolina +3 (5 units)
Vandy +4 1/2 (5 units)
Nebraska +10 1/2 (5 units)
Colorado +13 1/2 (5 units)
San Diego St +24 (5 units)
Ohio St -2 (5 units)
Washington U +22 (5 units)
Washington State +17 (5 units)
Minn-Indiana Over 58 (5 units)
Oklahoma-Baylor Over 62 1/2 (5 units)
Tulane-Army Over 41 1/2 (5 units)
K State-Texas Tech Over 66 (5 units)
Cal-Arizona State Over 55 (5 units)
AF-Navy Over 52 1/2 (5 units)
Toledo-Ball State Over 65 (5 units)
Tulsa-Rice Under 80 (5 units)
UCLA-Washington State Over 56 1/2 (5 units)
Kentucky +16 1/2 (5 units)
Texas A&m +25 (5 units)
Rice +16 (5 units)
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Here you go
DR BOB
4 Iowa
3 Utah St
3 Baylor
3 Okla St
3 Tulsa
3 GT
3 Stanford
2 W Va
2 Hawaii
2 NC
2 Zona
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4 Star Selection
**** Iowa 30 MICHIGAN ST. (-7.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Michigan State has won 4 straight games since losing at Cal and Iowa is coming off back-to-back loss to Pitt and Northwestern. Those recent results have given me tons of line value to play on a superior Iowa squad that is in a great situation against an overrated Michigan State team. Let?s review Michigan State ?s season so far. The Spartans started the season with a not as close as the final score indicated 31-38 loss at Cal, who out-gained MSU 7.4 yards per play to 5.1 yppl and should have won by 17 points if not for a few fluke plays. Michigan State rebounded with a 42-10 win over Eastern Michigan , but only out-gained the lowly Eagles 6.3 yppl to 5.8 yppl. After that was a solid 17-0 win over Florida Atlantic and a good win over a bad Notre Dame team (you?ll see). Last week?s win over Indiana was the result of a +3 in turnover margin, as the Spartans were out-gained 6.5 yppl to 6.6 yppl against by a Hoosiers team that was missing 3 of their 4 starting defensive backs and lost two subs during the game (which is why Hoyer was able to average 10.0 yards per pass play). For the season Michigan State has been just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and all this talk about Jevon Ringer?s great season is a bit unfounded when you consider that Ringer has averaged a mediocre 4.8 ypr this season against teams that would allow 5.1 ypr to an average team. The Spartans defense, meanwhile, is 0.3 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Michigan State does have better than average special teams, but the Spartans are just barely better than an average Division 1A team so far this year ? but their 4 straight wins has hidden that fact. Iowa, despite being 3-2, has been 0.7 yppl better than average offensively (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), and are better now that Ricky Stanzi is the full-time quarterback, and the Hawkeyes have been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yppl). Iowa ?s close losses to Pitt and Northwestern are a bit misleading when you consider that the Hawkeyes out-gained those teams 771 yards at 5.8 yppl to 657 yards at 4.8 yppl. The perception of these two teams is way off and Iowa applies to a 63-12 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation while Michigan State applies to a negative 42-91-3 ATS home favorite letdown situation that plays against teams on a 4 game or more win streak. Iowa also applies to a 44-11-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Hawkeyes are 11-4 ATS after consecutive losses since 2000 (8-2 ATS as a dog). I?ll take Iowa in a 4-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars from +6 ? to +4 points (2-Stars down to +3).
3 Star Selection
*** GEORGIA TECH (-12.5) 35 Duke 10
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Duke starting the season at 3-1 and breaking a 25 game conference losing streak under new coach David Cutcliffe is a nice story, but the Blue Devils are a Cinderella story that is not going to have a fairy tale ending. Duke has out-scored their opponents by an average score of 30.8 to 16.3, but that is wildly misleading given that the Blue Devils have averaged only 4.8 yards per play while allowing 5.2 yppl. The Blue Devils? offense has gained their 4.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, so they are once again bad offensively and won?t move the ball with much success against a very good Georgia Tech stop unit that has yielded just 4.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. While Duke?s offense is struggling to move the ball, the Blue Devils mediocre defense (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.1 yppl against an average team) will be overwhelmed by a Georgia Tech option rushing attack that has averaged 6.9 yppl against a schedule of most good defensive teams that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average attack. Georgia Tech quarterback Josh Nesbitt is nursing an injured hamstring and will not play, but backup quarterback Jaybo Shaw led the attack to 500 yards at 7.9 yppl last week against a normally stingy Mississippi State defense. Many analysts, including myself, wondered if coach Paul Johnson?s option attack that worked so well at Navy could work in the ACC and that question has been answered. I suppose it?s pretty obvious that an offense that was able to move the ball against BCS teams with inferior talent at Navy should really be able to move the ball with BCS athletes running it. This looks like a blowout win to me and I?ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ? to -17 points.
3 Star Selection
***Stanford 26 NOTRE DAME (-7.0) 23
11:30 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Stanford won for me last week and I?m back on the Cardinal for another 3-Star Best Bet. Stanford is an improving team that is now better than average on both sides of the ball and is playing with more confidence. Quarterback Tavita Pritchard had his best game ever last week (222 yards on 24 pass plays) and he is now just 0.2 yards per pass play worse than an average quarterback (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback). Stanford?s offensive line is opening holes for Toby Gerhart (421 yards at 5.7 ypr) and backup Anthony Kimble (248 yards at 5.3 ypr), who took over for a woozy Gerhart in the first quarter last week and ran for 157 yards on 15 carries. Gerhart should be over his concussion by game time, but Kimble is good enough to get the job done against a soft Notre Dame defensive front that has given up 4.9 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team. The Notre Dame pass defense isn?t good either, allowing 5.9 yppp to teams that would average 5.8 yppp, and the Irish rate at 0.3 yards per play worse than average overall defensively. Stanford is 0.4 yppl better than average offensively with Pritchard on the field and the Cardinal should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game. Notre Dame?s offense did a good job last week in a win over Purdue, but the Irish lack a rushing attack and have averaged just 5.2 yppl for the season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Stanford?s defense has come on strong since LB Nick Macaluso and S Sean Wiser joined the lineup after each missed the first two games. The Cardinal were a bit worse than average defensively in the 2 games without Macaluso and Wiser, but they?ve yielded just 4.4 yppl in 3 games with their current lineup (to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Even using all games the Cardinal would rate at 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl) and that unit has an edge over Notre Dame?s defense. Stanford has an edge in this game regardless of who has the ball and both teams are good in special teams. Notre Dame?s 3 wins haven?t actually been very impressive, as they barely out-played a bad San Diego State team, were out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.7 yppl by a mediocre Michigan team and only out-gained Purdue last week 6.45 yppl to 6.42 yppl. Stanford should be favored in this game and the Cardinal apply to a very strong 44-11-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I?ll take Stanford in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars from +6 ? to +5 points.
3 Star Selection
*** OKLAHOMA ST. (-24.0) 51 Texas A&M 14
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Oklahoma State had the nation?s 3rd best offense last season and they rank at #3 in my offensive ratings this season too ? although they are better than they were last season. The Cowboys are led by quarterback Zac Robinson, who averaged 8.3 yards per pass play last season (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB), and is even better so far this year (11.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp). While Robinson is a great passer, the Cowboys have chosen to mostly keep the ball on the ground in their 4 blowout wins. That strategy has worked just fine, as the Cowboys have averaged 6.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.5 yprp to an average team). Oklahoma State has racked up more than 600 total yards and 55-plus points in each of their last 3 games, including last week against a good Troy State defense. I don?t see any way that Texas A&M will be able to stop the Cowboys with a defense that has allowed 238 rushing yards at 5.7 yprp to teams that would only average 4.4 yprp against an average defensive team. Oklahoma State may score on every drive in this game when they don?t turn the ball over (and they?ve committed just 5 turnovers in 4 games). Texas A&M will not have much luck when they get the ball, as the Aggies are 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack) while Oklahoma State is 0.5 yppl better than average on defense (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppp). The Aggies? starting quarterback Stephen McGee is out, but Jerrod Johnson has had most of the snaps this season and is equally bad. The Cowboys are also dangerous in special teams while Texas A&M is below average in special teams. My ratings favor the Cowboys by 37 points in this game and they apply to a very strong 78-20-2 ATS momentum situation. Oklahoma State certainly has no issues with running up the score either, as they are a perfect 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 13 points the last 3 season, winning those games by an average of 32.4 points while laying an average of 18.4 points. I?ll take Oklahoma State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -27 points or less and for 2-Stars at -27 ? or -28 points.
3 Star Selection
*** TULSA (-15.5) 55 Rice 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Both of these teams are horrible defensively, but Tulsa is much better offensively and should eventually pull away from the Owls. Tulsa ?s bend but don?t break defense has allowed an average of 404 yards at 5.9 yards per play (against teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average team), but only 24 points per game. While the Hurricane are 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively, that unit is better than a Rice defense that is 1.3 yppl worse than average for the season (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and has been even worse since losing top CB Brandon King, who broke up 19 passes last season and had 2 interceptions in 3 games this season. Rice has been 2.0 yppl worse than average in two games without King, allowing 7.1 yppl to Texas and North Texas , who would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The difference in this game is offense and that is a huge difference in favor of Tulsa . Rice is a good offensive team that has been 0.2 yppl better than average in their 5 games, averaging 5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. However, Tulsa ?s offense is the best in the nation right now, averaging a ridiculous 601 yards at 8.7 yppl at 55 points per game ? against a schedule that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team. Quarterback David Johnson has averaged an incredible 12.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB) and he has averaged 10 yppp or more in every game with 19 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions in 4 games. The Golden Hurricane can run the ball too, averaging 216 yards at 5.9 yard per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp) and I expect Tulsa to score every possession in which they do not turn the ball over (they?ve committed just 5 turnovers in 4 games). My math model favors Tulsa by 25 ? points in this game and the Hurricane apply to a very good 78-20-2 ATS home momentum situation while Rice applies to a negative 64-146-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their 77-20 win over North Texas. I?ll take Tulsa in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 ? points to -20 points.
2 Star Selection
** WEST VIRGINIA (-13.5) 35 Rutgers 14
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
West Virginia is much better than a 2-2 team that has only out-scored their foes by an average of 6.7 points. The Mountaineers have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yards per play to 4.5 yppl and it?s just random that they have only averaged 23 points when an average of 6.0 yppl on offense would generally result in about 30 points per game. The offense has improved the last two games with coach Bill Stewart reverting back to the run-oriented option attack that has been so successful for the Mountaineers in recent years, after trying to implement a more pass-heavy attack. Pat White is still an accurate quarterback (73.3% completions), but the inexperienced West Virginia receiving corps is simply not getting open down the field, which has resulted in an average of just 7.2 yards per catch (the worst in the nation I?m guessing). The less passing the better as far as I?m concerned and West Virginia has topped 300 yards rushing in each of their last two games (at 6.8 yards per rushing play) and the Mounties should run for over 300 yards at around 7.0 yprp in this game against a Rutgers defense that allowed 218 rushing yards at 5.9 yprp to Fresno State and 279 yards at 5.9 yprp to Navy ? the two good running teams that they?ve faced. Rutgers has been 0.2 yards per play worse than average defensively through their first 4 games (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team), so West Virginia should move the ball well with an attack that rates at 0.6 yppl better than average. Rutgers? offense is probably going to improve upon their poor early season results (just 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but West Virginia has been 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) and the Mounties are even better than that now that star LB Reed Williams (leading tackler last season) is back after missing the first two games. West Virginia has yielded just 3.9 yppl to Colorado and Marshall in the two games with Reed in the lineup, which rates at 1.2 yppl better than average (Colorado and Marshall would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). In addition to my math model favoring West Virginia by 22 ? points the Mountaineers also apply to a very good 253-136-6 ATS statistical match-up indicator. My only issue with this game is Rutgers ? 9-1 ATS mark as a double-digit underdog the last 6 seasons, but that team trend doesn?t out-weight the rest of the evidence supporting the Mountaineers. I?ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and I?d consider the Mountaineers a Strong Opinion from -14 ? to -16 points.
2 Star Selection
**BAYLOR 24 Oklahoma (-26.5) 40
09:30 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Baylor?s days as the Big 12?s punching bag are over. The Bears are a new team under new coach Art Briles and freshman quarterback Robert Griffin is one of the most exciting and talented newcomers in the nation. Griffin took over the reigns of the offense late in the Bears? opening 13-41 loss to Wake Forest and he has been great ever since. Griffin has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) with zero interceptions while also running for 372 yards in just over 3 games on just 46 rushing plays (that?s 8.1 yprp!). Taking out the game with Division 1AA Northwestern State would drop gives a better indication of Griffin?s ability at this level, but he?s still been very good in averaging 6.5 yppp againsat Division 1A teams that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppp to an average QB. Griffin is joined in the backfield by sophomore back Jay Finley, who has run for 317 yards at 8.1 ypr. Overall, Baylor has been 1.4 yards per play better than average in 3 games against Division 1A teams when Griffin was at quarterback (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Oklahoma ?s defense has been 0.8 yppl better than average in 3 games against Division 1A opponents (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl), so Baylor has an advantage against the Sooners? defense and should move the ball pretty well. The Bears are also good defensively, allowing just 4.9 yppl in 3 Division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team. Oklahoma is great offensively, averaging 7.4 yppl when quarterback Sam Bradford is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack), but they?re facing a defense that is 0.5 yppl better than the average stop unit they?ve faced this season and this game is on the road ? so I doubt that the Sooners will get to their 49.8 point average. Oklahoma is actually not likely to continue scoring as efficiently as they have been, as it?s nearly impossible to continue to score a touchdown nearly every time they get in the redzone (they?ve attempted just 1 field goal and scored a TD every other time they?ve been within the opponent?s 20 yard line) and the Sooners are not going to go through the season with zero lost fumbles either. My math model project Oklahoma to tally 498 yards at 7.1 yppl in this game, but it also projects Baylor with 397 yards at 5.9 yppl, which would lead to a game that is much close than expected even if Oklahoma continues to score as efficiently as they have been. In addition to good line value (the fair line should be 22 points) Oklahoma applies to a negative 32-85-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation that has already worked twice this year (against USC in their straight up loss at Oregon State and against Oregon in their non-covering OT win at Purdue). The Sooners are also just 5-18 ATS as a favorite of 24 points or more following consecutive wins and they will probably be looking past this game towards next week showdown with rival Texas. Baylor, meanwhile, applies to a solid 83-40-5 ATS situation that plays on good running teams as underdogs of 24 points or more. Underrated Baylor is 2-0 ATS with Griffin starting at quarterback and Oklahoma is due for a letdown (and Baylor is likely to cover even if the Sooners don?t letdown). I?ll take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more and for 3-Stars at +27 or more.
2 Star Selection
** NORTH CAROLINA (-7.0) 33 Connecticut 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Both of these teams will be using quarterbacks getting their first starts of the season, but North Carolina is most likely to be successful in this game. Connecticut ?s Tyler Lorenzen, knocked of last week?s game, will miss most of the season and will be replaced by highly touted passing quartertback Zach Frazer, who transferred from Notre Dame. Frazer is likely going to be a better passing quarterback than Lorenzen was, but the Huskies will miss Lorenzen?s 236 yards on 35 rushing plays. Overall, I?ll call for the Huskies to be a bit better with Frazer than they were with Lorenzen, which puts U Conn?s attack (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) about 0.4 yppl better than average for this game. U Conn is known as a good defensive team and they?ve only give up 14.2 points per game, but the Huskies are actually below average on a yards per pass play basis after factoring in the schedule of most weak offensive teams. U Conn has yielded 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team and the 6.4 yppl that they?ve allowed Baylor and Louisville the last 2 weeks is more indicative of the struggles they?re really having on defense (Baylor and Louisville would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team). North Carolina?s offense was hurt by the injury to starting quarterback T.J. Yates and backup Mike Paulus was horrible in his place (23 yards on 14 pass plays), but veteran Cameron Sexton came off the bench last week to lead the comeback over Miami last week with 242 yards on 19 pass attempts and 2 touchdown passes. Sexton was thrown into the lineup as a freshman back in 2006 and struggled in a bad offense (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB), but his numbers actually weren?t that bad for a freshman and North Carolina has a much better system under Butch Davis and more weapons at the receiver position than they had in 2006. I don?t expect Sexton to play at the level he played last week, or even at the level that Yates was playing at, but he should be above average throwing the ball while North Carolina?s ground attack does some damage against a U Conn defensive front that?s allowed 5.0 yards per rushing play to teams that would average just 4.5 yprp against an average team. While Connecticut has the undeserved reputation of being good defensively, the Tar Heels actually are good defensively, allowing just 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. UNC also has much better special teams with Brandon Tate averaging 28.5 yards per kick return and an incredible 28.2 yards per punt return. My math model favors North Carolina by 13 points in this game after making the appropriate adjustments (it favored UNC by 16 points without those adjustments) and Connecticut applies to a negative 18-64 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week?s lucky upset win at Louisville (U Conn was out-gained 289 yards at 4.8 yppl to 508 yards at 7.2 yppl by Louisville). I?ll resist making UNC a 3-Star, even at -7 or less, because of the higher level of uncertainty of exactly how well each new quarterback will perform (although Sexton was clearly better last week). I?ll take North Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less.
2 Star Selection
** ARIZONA (-21.5) 42 Washington 10
04:30 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Washington is loaded with underclassmen on a defensive unit that has allowed 7.7 yards per play (to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team) and Arizona?s spread passing attack should move the ball at will (Washington has allowed 9.6 yards per pass play). While Arizona is known for Willie Tuitama and the pass attack, it is the Wildcats? defense that has really shined, as that unit has yielded just 3.9 yppl (to a schedule of teams that would average 4.8 yppl against an average team) and 15.5 points per game. The 36 points that Arizona allowed to New Mexico is misleading given that the Lobos averaged a sub-par 5.2 yppl in that game (Arizona turned the ball over 5 times are were -4 in turnovers, but have only committed 2 total turnovers in their other 3 games). Washington will be without dynamic quarterback Jake Locker for awhile, but sophomore Ronnie Fouch will probably be a better passing quarterback than Locker was (Fouch has averaged 6.1 yards on 50 pass plays while Locker had averaged just 4.2 yppp), but Locker was the team?s leading rusher last season and this season and those yards are not going to be replaced. Overall, I actually rate the Washington offense as better with Fouch given how poorly Locker was throwing the ball, but Fouch will probably struggle in this game against an Arizona secondary that has yielded just 3.3 yppp in 4 games (to teams that would average 5.2 yppp against an average defensive team). Arizona ?s pass defense actually ranks as #2 in the nation in my ratings and covering Washington ?s only legitimate threat at wide receiver, D?Andre Goodwin, will be easier with Goodwin attempting to play with his injured ribs. Goodwin has 27 catches for 315 yards and the #2 pass catcher on the team has just 11 receptions for 128 yards, so it would hurt the Huskies if Goodwin is not able to play up to his normal standards. Washington isn?t likely to take advantage of a mediocre Wildcats run defense given that the Huskies have averaged just 3.5 yards per rushing play after taking out Locker?s contributions. In addition to being overmatched on both sides of the ball, the Huskies have horrible special teams while Arizona excels in that department. My math model favors Arizona by 32 points and the Huskies apply to a negative 31-70-2 ATS situation that is based on their poor recent defensive performances. I?ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less and for 3-Stars at -21 or less.
2 Star Selection
** Hawaii 24 FRESNO ST. (-22.0) 37
07:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Hawaii is 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS against Division 1A competition this season, but the Rainbow Warriors are now an underrated team. Hawaii has been out-scored by an average of 17.0 points per game in 4 games despite averaging 5.0 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.0 yppl on defense. The reason for the large negative scoring differential is a -15 in turnover margin in those 4 games, but it?s nearly impossible to continue to be so negative in turnovers and the point spread for this game hasn?t taken that into account. Hawaii matches up very well with Fresno State from a yards per play perspective, as Warriors have actually been 0.3 yppl better than average offensively when either Tyler Graunke or Inoke Funaki are in at quarterback (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while the banged up Fresno State defense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) and getting worse with the injuries to DT Jon Monga and LB Nick Bates (the Bulldogs allowed 982 yards at 6.7 yppl the last two weeks to Toledo and UCLA, who would average just 5.4 yppl against an average team). Fresno has made up for their bad defense with a good offense that rates at 0.9 yppl better than average (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Hawaii should be able to slow that attack with a stop unit that?s given up just 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Hawaii has faced two very good offensive teams in Florida and Oregon State , both on the road, and the Warriors allowed 6.3 yppl to the Gators and Beavers, who would combine to average 6.7 yppl at home against an average team. Hawaii is clearly better than average defensively and the Warriors actually have an overall advantage over Fresno State from the line of scrimmage. Fresno has a huge edge in this game in special teams (about 9 points) and my math model projects the Bulldogs to be +1.5 in turnover margin. Even with those edges, the math still only favors Fresno State by 13 points in this game and Hawaii should cover the spread even if they are -3 in turnovers (which would be an improvement over their -3.75 TO margin average). I?ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Penn St. (-13.5) 41 PURDUE 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Penn State failed to cover by 1 point in last week?s 38-24 win over Illinois , but the Nittany Lions continued to play well as they out-gained the Illini 6.9 yards per play to 5.6 yppl. For the season Penn State has averaged 7.3 yppl while allowing just 3.9 yppl while facing a schedule that would average 5.0 yppl and allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. Those numbers show that Penn State has been 2.9 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage and that is not just a function of facing a few bad teams. The Nittany Lions have out-gained good teams Oregon State and Illinois 6.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl, which is very good considering that the Illinis and the Beavers would combine to out-gain an average team 6.0 yppl to 5.0 yppl on the road. So Penn State is 2.8 yppl better than average in those two games, which is about the same as their overall season rating. Purdue, meanwhile, has been a below average team ? rating at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively in their 4 games. The big problem for the Boilermakers in this game is their horrible run defense (5.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average just 4.4 yprp against an average team) going up against a great Penn State offensive line that is paving the way for 273 yards per game at 6.6 yprp (against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp). Penn State ?s offense should move the ball at will while their sturdy defense limits a mediocre Purdue attack. Purdue did manage to cover as a home underdog against Oregon, but the Boilermakers gave up 306 yards at 7.1 yprp to the Ducks in that game and were lucky to be close while getting out-gained by 1.2 yppl in that game. I would love to play Penn State here but the Nittany Lions apply to a negative 5-30 ATS subset of a 28-68-2 ATS letdown situation that will keep me from making this game a Best Bet. Penn State does apply to a 90-36-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Lions are 17-5-1 ATS, but I must respect the strong situation going against them even though I can?t see how they won?t win by at least two touchdowns. I?ll consider Penn State a Strong Opinion at -14 or less and I?d take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
KANSAS ST. 33 Texas Tech (-7.0) 34
12:30 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Texas Tech has not been as good away from home (25-28 ATS) as they have been at home (27-17-2 ATS) under coach Mike Leach and the Red Raiders haven?t been as good following a victory (26-33-1 ATS) as they have been following a loss (21-10 ATS). Tech is just 14-24 ATS away from home when not coming off a loss, including 10-21 ATS against teams with a win percentage of at least .333 (2-12 ATS since 2005). Off back-to-back wins that record gets even worse, as Leach?s team is just 1-14 straight up and 3-12 ATS on the road after consecutive wins against a team with a win percentage of .333 or higher ? including 1-12 ATS if not an underdog of more than 18 points (0-7 ATS since 2004). That includes an 0-2 straight up record as a favorite of 6 points or more, with one of those being a loss as a 23 point favorite. Now that we?ve established the fact that Texas Tech is in a situation in which they normally don?t cover, I can start to argue that they shouldn?t be favored by as much as they are in this game. Kansas State ?s defense has been ripped apart the last two weeks by Louisville and UL Lafayette, but most of that damage was on the ground, as those teams combined for 682 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play against the Wildcats. Kansas State has been good against the pass this season (4.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppp against an average team) and they allowed a reasonable 6.0 yppp in those last two games, which is pretty good considering that Louisville and UL Lafayette would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. While Kansas State ?s run defense is a problem for them, that problem won?t be completely exploited this week by a Texas Tech offense that has thrown the ball on 67% of their plays this season. The Red Raiders have been good running the ball when they do decide to put it on the ground and my math model projects 211 rushing yards for them in this game, but Kansas State should limit Tech?s aerial attack to a modest average. My math projects Tech to gain 486 total yards at 6.9 yards per play, but Kansas State can come close to matching those numbers. Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman is having an incredible season, averaging 9.6 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average QB, and the Wildcats have averaged 7.0 yppl when Freeman has been on the field (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). Texas Tech is a solid defensive team, but the Red Raiders are 0.5 yppl better than average on defense, which is not close to how good the Wildcats are offensively. My math projects 442 yards at 6.3 yppl for Kansas State and the Wildcats are among the best in the nation in special teams again this season. My ratings favor Texas Tech by just 3 points in this game and that doesn?t take into account the fact that the Red Raiders don?t play as well away from home (or the fact that Kansas State is 74-34 ATS at home since 1990). Texas Tech?s only road game was a lucky cover at Nevada in which Tech only out-gained the Wolf Pack 6.2 yppl to 6.0 yppl as a 10 ? point favorite. I?ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Navy 27 AIR FORCE (-5.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Navy matches up very well with Air Force on both sides of the ball. Navy?s option rushing attack has averaged an incredible 6.8 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and that attack matches up well against an Air Force defense that has been good in pass defense but has been horrible against the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team). The Falcons are 0.1 yppl better than average overall defensively, but they are worse than average against a team that runs the ball 86% of the time. Navy?s defense, meanwhile, is horrible against the pass (7.4 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.6 yppp against an average team), but the Middies are pretty good against the run (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.3 yprp against an average team) ? which matches up perfectly against an Air Force option attack that runs the ball 87% of the time. So, Air Force is a team that isn?t likely to take advantage of Navy?s bad pass defense while also not being able to defend what Navy does on offense. My math model takes into account such match-ups and the math favors Navy to win this game. Sadly, there is a negative 21-67-1 ATS letdown situation that applies to Navy and is based on their upset win over Wake Forest . That situation is enough to keep me from being on Navy as a Best Bet, but I?ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TCU (-24.0) 38 San Diego St. 9
03:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
TCU applies to a very strong 74-17-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while San Diego State applies to a negative 64-146-1 ATS road letdown situation. While the technical analysis is strongly in the favor of the Horned Frogs I am not confident in their ability to take advantage of a bad San Diego State defense (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team). TCU will surely be able to run the ball, as the Aztecs are particularly bad defending the run (5.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average team), but TCU?s offense is 0.7 yppl worse than average and my math model projects only 34 points for the Frogs. TCU does have a very strong defense that?s allowed just 4.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average stop unit and my math projects just 14 points for the Aztecs in this game. However, the math favor TCU by just 20 points and the negative line value makes it tough to back the Frogs as a Best Bet in this game even though the technical analysis is so strongly in their favor. My overall analysis gives TCU a solid 54% chance to cover at -24 ? points and a 56.7% chance at -24 points and I?ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Northern Ill 14 TENNESSEE (-16.0) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
Even with two losses behind them, the Volunteers may have trouble dipping into the emotional well after SEC games with Florida and Auburn and with a trip to Georgia next week. If the Vols do play with some intensity I still don?t think they?ll cover the big spread with a bad offense (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) going up against a pretty solid Northern Illinois defense that?s allowed just 4.7 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average team). The Huskies are coming off a 37-0 road win at Eastern Michigan and road underdogs coming off a road shutout win are 30-8 ATS since 1980. Northern Illinois has been better than average offensively this season (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team), but most of the aerial damage was done by injured starter Chandler Harnish, who was having a great start to his career before getting hurt in game 2. Veteran Dan Nicholson was 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average for his career entering this season and he?s 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average on 59 pass plays (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average QB) since taking over for Harnish. Northern Illinois is a decent running team (5.4 yprp against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp), but Tennessee is strong defensively (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) and my math model projects only 233 total yards at 3.6 yppl for the Huskies in this game. Tennessee is at a major disadvantage in special teams with their backup punter and poor punt coverage (28.0 net punting) going up against a Northern Illinois punt return team that has caused opponents to net just 26.6 net yards per punt. The Huskies? punt team has averaged 41.7 net yards per boot while the Vols? punt return team has allowed opponents to net 38.0 yards per punt. With all the punting that?s going to be going on for both sides in this game, that turns into a significant advantage for Northern Illinois and is likely to keep Tennessee in bad field position with an offense that won?t move the ball that easily. I?ll consider Northern Illinois a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I?d take the Huskies in a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UL Lafayette (-2.5) 37 UL MONROE 28
04:00 PM Pacific, 04-Oct-08
UL Lafayette is a very good offensive team by national standards (not just by Sun Belt standards), as the Ragin? Cajuns have averaged 6.4 yards per play this season against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. That average is skewed by a 667 yard at 9.0 yppl game against Kent State, but UL Lafayette just gained 509 yards at 6.4 yppl on the road against at Kansas State last week and their median offensive game rating is 0.6 yppl better than average. That unit should move the ball at easily against a UL Monroe defense that?s allowed 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 4.9 yppl against an average team. Monroe is decent offensively, rating at 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and they?ll have pretty good success against a Lafayette defense that has been 0.6 yppl worse than average this season (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl). UL Lafayette is better on both sides of the ball and in special teams and I?ll consider UL Lafayette a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
- Apr 7, 2008
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Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
NCAA WEEK 6
We have a trio of top-25 match ups this week. No. 9 USC gets a home bout against No.23 Oregon to recover from last week's upset loss at Oregon State. No. 18 Wisconsin also comes off an upset loss on the road, and the Badgers will play host to No. 14 Ohio State as they look to bounce back. Another week and another top-25 face-off in the SEC, but this one wasn't expected coming into the season. No. 19 Vanderbilt is a surprise at 4-0, and they look to prove they're for real with a home game against No. 13 Auburn.
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you?ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true ?line value.? Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You?ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include No. 24 UConn at North Carolina, No. 4 Missouri at Nebraska, and Kentucky at No. 2 Alabama. Visit **************.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 6 ? Games to Watch
Texas Tech vs Kansas State (10/4 3:30P)
Coming into the season, everyone knew about Texas Tech's high-powered offense led by Senior QB Graham Harrell and Sophomore WR Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders haven't disappointed by putting up over 45 points and 570 yards a game while climbing to No. 7 in the rankings with a 4-0 record. Texas Tech improved their running game behind a pair of talented backs, Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, that each average over 6 yards per carry and are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Red Raiders are backing up all that offense with an improved defense that is giving up an average of 16 points per game.
Kansas State also knows how to put up a lot of points, as they average 47 points a contest. The Wildcats are led by Junoir QB Josh Freeman, who broke KSU's career record for passing yards last week and needs only two passing TDs to tie the school mark. KSU finally found a running game during their last contest as converted WR Lamark Brown rushed for 137 yards and a TD to give the offense a balance.
We're expecting there to be plenty of points with these two offenses facing off. Texas Tech opened as -6 favorites at Pinnacle before the line quickly moved to -7 with the Red Raiders receiving the majority of the public's wagers. The line fluctuated and triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on KSU before dropping down to Texas Tech -7.5. We like to follow the Smart Money and home teams getting more than a TD. We're backing the Wildcats in Manhattan.
Kansas State +7.5 (SIA)
Ohio State vs Wisconsin (10/4 8P)
Ohio State heads into Wisconsin coming off a pair of home wins to wash the bitter taste of the USC game out of their mouth. The Buckeyes haven't looked dominating since their opening win against Youngstown State, as they've been dealing with a nagging injury to starting tailback Beanie Wells and inconsistent play at quarterback. Wells finally returned and looked healthy last week against Minnesota as he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor finally brought some playmaking ability to the QB spot while splitting time with Todd Boeckman. Pryor was steady throwing the ball while rushing for 97 yards and two scores on eight carries. The Buckeyes' defense also looked better last week as they allowed only two field goals before Minnesota scored two late TDs when the game was out of reach.
Wisconsin will look to bounce back from last week's devastating second half against Michigan. The Badgers led 19-0 at halftime but allowed the Wolverines to score 27 points in the final 18 minutes to pull the upset. A big part of that loss was the four turnovers committed by Senior QB Allan Evridge. The Badgers defense allows only 17 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. Wisconsin historically plays well at home, and they have won 27 of their previous 28 games at Camp Randall Stadium.
This will be the Buckeyes first test since USC, and playing at Wisconsin is a tall task with a freshman QB. Wisconsin may have blown it last week, but they have already defeated a top-25 team this season, and they know their season could be on the line with No. 6 Penn State visiting next week. Ohio State opened as -2.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has dropped to Ohio State -1 despite the Buckeyes receiving 72% of public wagers. This has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Wisconsin, so we'll take the Badgers at home with a point or so.
Wisconsin +1.5 (SIA)
Missouri vs Nebraska (10/4 9PM)
Missouri has looked excellent so far this season behind Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. The Tigers offense is ranked second nationally in scoring and total yards as they've racked up four non-conference wins to open the season. The only close contest was in their opening game against then-No. 20 Illinois, which they won 52-42. Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes while throwing for 12 touchdowns against one interception. The offense is balanced with RB Derrick Washington, who averages 6.8 yards a carry and has scored 8 TDs on the ground.
Nebraska is coming off a tough 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech, and has to face one of the nation's most powerful offenses. First-year Cornhuskers coach Bo Pelini has his team off to a good start, but knows the Huskers have a tough task this week. Nebraska has put up 37.5 points per game, and they will look to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense with Senior QB Joe Ganz.
This will be Missouri's first road contest as they open their Big 12 schedule. They opened as -10 favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved up and down between 10 and 11 across the marketplace throughout the week. With the Tigers receiving 77% of the public's backing, Nebraska is receiving a plethora of Smart Money plays, mostly from books with positive records, due to the betting percentage and line fluctuation. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Huskers with the points.
Nebraska +10.5
So, here?s a wrap-up of **************.com analysis for this week?s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (8-7)
Kansas State +7.5 (SIA)
Wisconsin +1.5 (SIA)
Nebraska +10.5
NCAA WEEK 6
We have a trio of top-25 match ups this week. No. 9 USC gets a home bout against No.23 Oregon to recover from last week's upset loss at Oregon State. No. 18 Wisconsin also comes off an upset loss on the road, and the Badgers will play host to No. 14 Ohio State as they look to bounce back. Another week and another top-25 face-off in the SEC, but this one wasn't expected coming into the season. No. 19 Vanderbilt is a surprise at 4-0, and they look to prove they're for real with a home game against No. 13 Auburn.
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you?ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true ?line value.? Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You?ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include No. 24 UConn at North Carolina, No. 4 Missouri at Nebraska, and Kentucky at No. 2 Alabama. Visit **************.com to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 6 ? Games to Watch
Texas Tech vs Kansas State (10/4 3:30P)
Coming into the season, everyone knew about Texas Tech's high-powered offense led by Senior QB Graham Harrell and Sophomore WR Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders haven't disappointed by putting up over 45 points and 570 yards a game while climbing to No. 7 in the rankings with a 4-0 record. Texas Tech improved their running game behind a pair of talented backs, Baron Batch and Shannon Woods, that each average over 6 yards per carry and are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Red Raiders are backing up all that offense with an improved defense that is giving up an average of 16 points per game.
Kansas State also knows how to put up a lot of points, as they average 47 points a contest. The Wildcats are led by Junoir QB Josh Freeman, who broke KSU's career record for passing yards last week and needs only two passing TDs to tie the school mark. KSU finally found a running game during their last contest as converted WR Lamark Brown rushed for 137 yards and a TD to give the offense a balance.
We're expecting there to be plenty of points with these two offenses facing off. Texas Tech opened as -6 favorites at Pinnacle before the line quickly moved to -7 with the Red Raiders receiving the majority of the public's wagers. The line fluctuated and triggered multiple Smart Money Plays on KSU before dropping down to Texas Tech -7.5. We like to follow the Smart Money and home teams getting more than a TD. We're backing the Wildcats in Manhattan.
Kansas State +7.5 (SIA)
Ohio State vs Wisconsin (10/4 8P)
Ohio State heads into Wisconsin coming off a pair of home wins to wash the bitter taste of the USC game out of their mouth. The Buckeyes haven't looked dominating since their opening win against Youngstown State, as they've been dealing with a nagging injury to starting tailback Beanie Wells and inconsistent play at quarterback. Wells finally returned and looked healthy last week against Minnesota as he rushed for 106 yards on 14 carries. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor finally brought some playmaking ability to the QB spot while splitting time with Todd Boeckman. Pryor was steady throwing the ball while rushing for 97 yards and two scores on eight carries. The Buckeyes' defense also looked better last week as they allowed only two field goals before Minnesota scored two late TDs when the game was out of reach.
Wisconsin will look to bounce back from last week's devastating second half against Michigan. The Badgers led 19-0 at halftime but allowed the Wolverines to score 27 points in the final 18 minutes to pull the upset. A big part of that loss was the four turnovers committed by Senior QB Allan Evridge. The Badgers defense allows only 17 points per game and has forced 11 turnovers. Wisconsin historically plays well at home, and they have won 27 of their previous 28 games at Camp Randall Stadium.
This will be the Buckeyes first test since USC, and playing at Wisconsin is a tall task with a freshman QB. Wisconsin may have blown it last week, but they have already defeated a top-25 team this season, and they know their season could be on the line with No. 6 Penn State visiting next week. Ohio State opened as -2.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has dropped to Ohio State -1 despite the Buckeyes receiving 72% of public wagers. This has triggered multiple Smart Money plays on Wisconsin, so we'll take the Badgers at home with a point or so.
Wisconsin +1.5 (SIA)
Missouri vs Nebraska (10/4 9PM)
Missouri has looked excellent so far this season behind Heisman hopeful QB Chase Daniel. The Tigers offense is ranked second nationally in scoring and total yards as they've racked up four non-conference wins to open the season. The only close contest was in their opening game against then-No. 20 Illinois, which they won 52-42. Daniel has completed over 75% of his passes while throwing for 12 touchdowns against one interception. The offense is balanced with RB Derrick Washington, who averages 6.8 yards a carry and has scored 8 TDs on the ground.
Nebraska is coming off a tough 35-30 home loss to Virginia Tech, and has to face one of the nation's most powerful offenses. First-year Cornhuskers coach Bo Pelini has his team off to a good start, but knows the Huskers have a tough task this week. Nebraska has put up 37.5 points per game, and they will look to take advantage of a porous Missouri pass defense with Senior QB Joe Ganz.
This will be Missouri's first road contest as they open their Big 12 schedule. They opened as -10 favorites at Pinnacle and the line has moved up and down between 10 and 11 across the marketplace throughout the week. With the Tigers receiving 77% of the public's backing, Nebraska is receiving a plethora of Smart Money plays, mostly from books with positive records, due to the betting percentage and line fluctuation. We'll follow the Smart Money and take the Huskers with the points.
Nebraska +10.5
So, here?s a wrap-up of **************.com analysis for this week?s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (8-7)
Kansas State +7.5 (SIA)
Wisconsin +1.5 (SIA)
Nebraska +10.5
- Apr 7, 2008
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Bettorsworld
2* Connecticut +7 over North Carolina - In evaluating talent on a college football team, it can be helpful in certain situations to take a look back at the previous season. The situations where that is helpful is where teams have lots of starters back from the previous year. Such is the case here for both of these squads as Uconn has 9 on offense and 8 on defense while North Carolina has 10 on offense and 8 on defense. So these teams both have the same core of talent as they did a year ago. Same coaching staffs, same schemes, same team. One significant missing link for both teams is QB as both have seen their starters go down with injuries. For Uconn it's QB Tyler Lorenzen who is out 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. Notre Dame transfer Zack Frazer takes his place. More on that later. For the Tar Heels, starter TJ Yates is out and Cam Sexton and Mike Paulus are in.
So with the core talent the same as a year ago, what can we learn from taking a look back? How about this. They had 3 common opponents, Duke, Virginia and South Florida. The results? Uconn Beat Duke 45-14 while NC beat Duke 20-14. Uconn beat South Florida 22-15 while NC lost 37-10. Uconn beat Virginia 16-17 while NC lost to Virginia 22-20. Sure, there was some bad weather involved here with the Uconn South Florida game last year but by and large what we can take away from last years results is that Uconn was a little better than North Carolina. At the very least, we come away with these two teams being on the same level talent wise.
Schedule strength will be one valid argument used for North Carolina especially when you consider that North Carolina played Virginia Tech and Miami in back to back weeks winning one and having the chance to win both. Playing a higher quality opponent give a team more chance for improvement from week to week. Playing good teams makes you better. It's not Uconns fault, as a tea, but thus far they have played Hofstra, Temple, Virginia, Baylor and Louisville. North Carolina will be their toughest opponent to date without question.
Uconn may actually benefit from the QB change. Zack Frazer was good enough for the folks at Notre Dame to be interested. He's got a great arm and is much more of a long ball threat than Lorenzen was. When you have the number one rusher in the country in your backfield, and now a deep threat, the two go hand in hand to help each other. Concentrate too much on stopping Donald Brown and that leaves the deep threat open. Keeping the North Carolina secondary honest opens it up for Donald Brown to continue to eat up yards on the ground.
The Uconn defense been a bend but not break defense. They gave up over 500 yards to Louisville but kept them out of the end zone. They had a yards per point number last season of 18 and this year it's currently at 22. Very good. Again, who they did it against will be the common argument against Uconn, but we have shown that going back and taking a look at the core talent from a year ago for both squads, that these teams figure to be evenly matched. Uconn has played a weak schedule perhaps, but they have done what's expected when you play a weak schedule....they won and are 5-0.
This isn't a play against North Carolina or for that matter, a play on Uconn because we feel they are superior. What we have here are two well coached teams that aren't beating themselves. Both teams can pound the ball. Uconn may have the better defense but the offensive edge goes to North Carolina with more weapons. Shake it all up and we have two evenly matched teams taking the field. The +7 is what attracts us here. This Uconn team is built to play the type of game that gets decided late, which is an ideal spot for a 7 point underdog.
One area of concern here, and it's a legitimate one, is Uconns performance on the road. They have only had a winning record on the road once this decade. Even last years team managed just a 2-3 road record. But the talent is there for a close game, even a win, so we'll grab the +7 here and make a 2* play on Uconn. 2* Uconn +7
2* Vanderbilt +4 over Auburn - We had a feeling we'd be playing this one a couple of weeks ago. First we are going to tell you why this play scares us. Then we are going to tell you why we're going to play it anyways.
A pointspread is an indicator of a teams value in the marketplace. If a team outperforms the indicator, it tells us they are undervalued. If a team doesn't perform well against the pointspread, it tells us they are overvalued. This game presents a classic look at overvalued and undervalued. This generally happens because a team is given credit, or not given credit, based on what they have done historically. Here we have Auburn, a team that is top 5 in wins over the last decade in college football, against Vanderbilt, a team that hasn't had a winning season in 25 years. Auburn is down a notch mostly as a result of implementing a new offense while Vandy is playing at a higher level thus far than they have in years. So it should be no surprise that Vandy is 4-0 against the spread this year while Auburn is 1-3 against the number.
The problem is that when this occurs, adjustments are made each week to correct the problem. Little by little, that early season value begins to disappear. Without these adjustments, bettors could simply load up on or against these teams each week and laugh all the way to the bank. As it stands with Vandy, we are approaching the point of diminishing returns. Interestingly enough, the oddsmakers still didn't get it right this week according to the early bettors who are usually a sharp crowd. Auburn opened a 6 point favorite but was quickly bet down to 4.
In order for their to be any value betting on Vanderbilt this season, past this game, there needs to be a correction in the market place. Is this the week of the correction? We hope not, as we are going to ride the Vandy train for one more week.
You've seen us refer to special seasons and the likes of Cinci, Rutgers and Wake Forest in recent years. One thing that all of these teams had in common was that they were all among the best teams in the nation in turnover margin at the time of their special runs. You commonly here people state that these teams "get all the breaks" or the "ball has bounced their way" but that's all nonsense. Teams that find themselves at the top of the turnover category are creating those bounces and breaks. So with Vanderbilt, it should come as no surprise that they are #1 in the country in Turnover Margin at +9. Auburn meanwhile, weighs in at -3 which is to be expected from a team implementing a new spread offense.
It won't be easy to beat Auburn with a one dimensional attack. Auburn has a fantastic defense. Vanderbilt is all about the run. They are pretty much no threat whatsoever to throw the ball downfield. Auburn held two opponents this year to 39 yards rushing. They held another to 84 yards on the ground with only LSU and Tennessee gaining any significant yardage overland but both of those teams were a threat thru the air which opened up the ground game. No such threat with Vandy and that could be a problem.
What we need here is a game that plays out similar to the Auburn Miss State game. A defensive battle where one or two big plays makes the difference. We like our chances of Vandy being the team that gets the big play to make a difference.
As with the Wake Forest and Rutgers teams, we get to say that this will probably be the biggest game Vanderbilt has ever played to date in the history of their program. They get the chance to prove they are deserving of the top 25 ranking. ESPN will be broadcasting from there all day starting with their Game Day show. For Vanderbilt, that's huge. The added emotional boost here can only be a positive. We'll ride Vandy one more week. 2* Vanderbilt +4
2* Connecticut +7 over North Carolina - In evaluating talent on a college football team, it can be helpful in certain situations to take a look back at the previous season. The situations where that is helpful is where teams have lots of starters back from the previous year. Such is the case here for both of these squads as Uconn has 9 on offense and 8 on defense while North Carolina has 10 on offense and 8 on defense. So these teams both have the same core of talent as they did a year ago. Same coaching staffs, same schemes, same team. One significant missing link for both teams is QB as both have seen their starters go down with injuries. For Uconn it's QB Tyler Lorenzen who is out 6-8 weeks with a broken foot. Notre Dame transfer Zack Frazer takes his place. More on that later. For the Tar Heels, starter TJ Yates is out and Cam Sexton and Mike Paulus are in.
So with the core talent the same as a year ago, what can we learn from taking a look back? How about this. They had 3 common opponents, Duke, Virginia and South Florida. The results? Uconn Beat Duke 45-14 while NC beat Duke 20-14. Uconn beat South Florida 22-15 while NC lost 37-10. Uconn beat Virginia 16-17 while NC lost to Virginia 22-20. Sure, there was some bad weather involved here with the Uconn South Florida game last year but by and large what we can take away from last years results is that Uconn was a little better than North Carolina. At the very least, we come away with these two teams being on the same level talent wise.
Schedule strength will be one valid argument used for North Carolina especially when you consider that North Carolina played Virginia Tech and Miami in back to back weeks winning one and having the chance to win both. Playing a higher quality opponent give a team more chance for improvement from week to week. Playing good teams makes you better. It's not Uconns fault, as a tea, but thus far they have played Hofstra, Temple, Virginia, Baylor and Louisville. North Carolina will be their toughest opponent to date without question.
Uconn may actually benefit from the QB change. Zack Frazer was good enough for the folks at Notre Dame to be interested. He's got a great arm and is much more of a long ball threat than Lorenzen was. When you have the number one rusher in the country in your backfield, and now a deep threat, the two go hand in hand to help each other. Concentrate too much on stopping Donald Brown and that leaves the deep threat open. Keeping the North Carolina secondary honest opens it up for Donald Brown to continue to eat up yards on the ground.
The Uconn defense been a bend but not break defense. They gave up over 500 yards to Louisville but kept them out of the end zone. They had a yards per point number last season of 18 and this year it's currently at 22. Very good. Again, who they did it against will be the common argument against Uconn, but we have shown that going back and taking a look at the core talent from a year ago for both squads, that these teams figure to be evenly matched. Uconn has played a weak schedule perhaps, but they have done what's expected when you play a weak schedule....they won and are 5-0.
This isn't a play against North Carolina or for that matter, a play on Uconn because we feel they are superior. What we have here are two well coached teams that aren't beating themselves. Both teams can pound the ball. Uconn may have the better defense but the offensive edge goes to North Carolina with more weapons. Shake it all up and we have two evenly matched teams taking the field. The +7 is what attracts us here. This Uconn team is built to play the type of game that gets decided late, which is an ideal spot for a 7 point underdog.
One area of concern here, and it's a legitimate one, is Uconns performance on the road. They have only had a winning record on the road once this decade. Even last years team managed just a 2-3 road record. But the talent is there for a close game, even a win, so we'll grab the +7 here and make a 2* play on Uconn. 2* Uconn +7
2* Vanderbilt +4 over Auburn - We had a feeling we'd be playing this one a couple of weeks ago. First we are going to tell you why this play scares us. Then we are going to tell you why we're going to play it anyways.
A pointspread is an indicator of a teams value in the marketplace. If a team outperforms the indicator, it tells us they are undervalued. If a team doesn't perform well against the pointspread, it tells us they are overvalued. This game presents a classic look at overvalued and undervalued. This generally happens because a team is given credit, or not given credit, based on what they have done historically. Here we have Auburn, a team that is top 5 in wins over the last decade in college football, against Vanderbilt, a team that hasn't had a winning season in 25 years. Auburn is down a notch mostly as a result of implementing a new offense while Vandy is playing at a higher level thus far than they have in years. So it should be no surprise that Vandy is 4-0 against the spread this year while Auburn is 1-3 against the number.
The problem is that when this occurs, adjustments are made each week to correct the problem. Little by little, that early season value begins to disappear. Without these adjustments, bettors could simply load up on or against these teams each week and laugh all the way to the bank. As it stands with Vandy, we are approaching the point of diminishing returns. Interestingly enough, the oddsmakers still didn't get it right this week according to the early bettors who are usually a sharp crowd. Auburn opened a 6 point favorite but was quickly bet down to 4.
In order for their to be any value betting on Vanderbilt this season, past this game, there needs to be a correction in the market place. Is this the week of the correction? We hope not, as we are going to ride the Vandy train for one more week.
You've seen us refer to special seasons and the likes of Cinci, Rutgers and Wake Forest in recent years. One thing that all of these teams had in common was that they were all among the best teams in the nation in turnover margin at the time of their special runs. You commonly here people state that these teams "get all the breaks" or the "ball has bounced their way" but that's all nonsense. Teams that find themselves at the top of the turnover category are creating those bounces and breaks. So with Vanderbilt, it should come as no surprise that they are #1 in the country in Turnover Margin at +9. Auburn meanwhile, weighs in at -3 which is to be expected from a team implementing a new spread offense.
It won't be easy to beat Auburn with a one dimensional attack. Auburn has a fantastic defense. Vanderbilt is all about the run. They are pretty much no threat whatsoever to throw the ball downfield. Auburn held two opponents this year to 39 yards rushing. They held another to 84 yards on the ground with only LSU and Tennessee gaining any significant yardage overland but both of those teams were a threat thru the air which opened up the ground game. No such threat with Vandy and that could be a problem.
What we need here is a game that plays out similar to the Auburn Miss State game. A defensive battle where one or two big plays makes the difference. We like our chances of Vandy being the team that gets the big play to make a difference.
As with the Wake Forest and Rutgers teams, we get to say that this will probably be the biggest game Vanderbilt has ever played to date in the history of their program. They get the chance to prove they are deserving of the top 25 ranking. ESPN will be broadcasting from there all day starting with their Game Day show. For Vanderbilt, that's huge. The added emotional boost here can only be a positive. We'll ride Vandy one more week. 2* Vanderbilt +4
