Big Al- (cfb early releases)
4* Iowa
3* Tulsa
3* Vandy
3* Kentucky
3* Colorado
3* Nebraska
3* Notre Dame
Opinions
South Carolina
Wisconsin
Virginia
Nationwide - Gold Sheet
Super Power 7
Minnesota
Larry Ness' 20* Revenge Game of the Year-CFB
My 20* play is on Air Force at 4:00 ET. Navy has dominated its service academy rivals for six years now, winning 11 of 12 games while capturing five consecutive Commander-in-Chief's trophies. Air Force has "felt that pain," suffering five straight losses to the Midshipmen. The losing streak began in 2003, with Air Force losing 28-25 in Landover as 14-point favorites. Three-point losses followed the next two seasons as well, before the Falcons lost by seven point in '06 and nine points last year. That's five losses by a combined total of 25 points. New Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun (in his second year) has given "lip service" to de-emphasizing the military rivalries but I'm not buying it. Air Force knows what's it's like to dominate its fellow service academies, as from 1982-2002, the Falcons won 19 of 21 games vs Navy and 17 of 21 against Army. Calhoun took over at Colorado Springs last year, replacing the legendary Fisher DeBerry, who had just five losing seasons in 23 years for Air Force. However, three of those losing seasons had come in his final three years at the school. Calhoun's first year was an unqualified success, as the Falcons went 9-3 during the regular season (9-2 ATS), before losing in the Armed Forces Bowl to Cal. In that game, Air Force jumped out to a 21-0 lead but wound up on the short end of a 42-36 final. It didn't help things that starting QB Carney was lost to an injury in the late third quarter with Air Force leading 27-21. Air Force is 3-1 to start '08, winning road games at Wyoming (23-3) and Houston (31-28) as underdogs, while beating Southern Utah at home and losing to an excellent Utah team in Colorado Springs on September 20. Air Force lead 16-7 at the half against the Utes but lost 30-23, when Utah scored with just under a minute to go in the game. Navy enters this game 3-2, after back-to-back wins over Rutgers (23-21) and at then-No. 16 Wake Forest. The 24-17 win over Wake marks Navy's first win over a ranked opponent in 23 years. Navy won despite losing starting QB Kaheaku-Enhada leaving with a hamstring injury in the second quarter. Enhada is questionable here and Navy will likely go with Jarod Bryant at QB, who I believe is a huge step down in class. Navy ranks No. 2 in the nation with 335.0 YPG on the ground (6.1 per). The Middies have two quality RBs in White (693 YR / 9.4 YPC) and Kettani (435 YR / 7.3 YPC). White, who had 348 yards vs Towson State in the season-opener, had just 20 yards on 11 carries vs Wake but Kettani had 175 vs Wake, after getting 133 the week before against Rutgers. Air Force can run the ball well too, averaging 281.8 YPG on the ground (4.5 YPC). QB Shea Smith has not shown much promise in the passing game, which ranks dead-last in the nation at 57.0 YPG (Carney completed 62.9 percent for 1,491 yards with nine TDs last year). Then again, Navy (with either Enhada or Bryant), only averages 80.2 YPG through the air, ranking just two spots ahead of Air Force. Navy is in a very tough spot scheduling-wise in this one and I believe that's a key to the game. It will be the team's FOURTH road game in its last five contests and prior to the Wake game, the Navy 'D' had allowed 35 points (488 yards) at Ball State and 41 points (396 yards) at Duke. As for Air Force, the Falcons had last weekend off, after its tough loss at home to Utah. That was Calhoun's first home loss as the Falcons' head coach (7-1) but the cover keeps him a perfect 6-0 ATS in Colorado Springs. As already mentioned, Navy is off a HUGE upset win over Wake, due largely to six Wake Forest turnovers. Wake QB Riley Skinner wound up with four INTs (ending a streak of 133 passes without an INT) and one lost fumble. Navy cannot expect those kind of 'gifts' in this game, against a major rival out to end a five-game series losing streak. Revenge works when the situation is right and the talent-gap is negligible. That's the case here and I look for the Falcons to roll. Revenge GOY 20* Air Force.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' CFB Blowout Game of the Month
My CFB Blowout of the Month is on Both Ohio U and Western Michigan were bowl teams in 2006 but the Bobcats fell to 6-6 last year, with the Broncos falling even further (5-7). The current season has seen the Bobcats open 0-4 before finally getting their first win last week vs VMI (51-31), while the Broncos have won four straight (2-0 start in the MAC) games since losing their season-opener at Nebraska. Ohio lost its starting QB (Theo Scott) in the second game of the year (at Ohio State) and Boo Jackson has taken over. Jackson threw three INTs in that game at Columbus and threw two more INTs in a 16-8 loss at Northwestern. While he has played well at home in his two starts (365 yards with three TDs and 0 INTs vs CMU plus 287 yards with two TDs and 0 INTs vs VMI), it's his two road performances which are more relevant here. Ohio hasn't had much balance to its offense, as the Bobcats have averaged just 117.4 RPG on the ground (3.6 YPC). The team's leading rusher (by far) is Harden, who has 274 yards (5.3). However, if one were to subtract his 142 yards vs VMI, he's averaged just 44.0 YPG in his other four contests. WMU only scored seven points in winning at Temple last week but the team has decent balance on offense and has averaged 30.4 PPG for the season. RB Brandon West was held to 35 last week (15 attempts) but let's not forget he was averaging 108.0 YPG through his first four games and ran for 848 yards (4.8) last season. He'll be up against a weak Ohio U defensive front-seven, which is allowing 175.6 YPG on the ground, which ranks them 92nd in the nation. QB Tim Hiller had a solid season last year for WMU and is off to an excellent start in '08. He's completing 69.4 percent of his passes, averaging 270.8 YPG with 15 TDs and just three INTs. The WMU defense is nothing special (despite good efforts the last two weeks vs Temple and Tenn Tech) but the Bobcats are not really capable of trading points with the Broncos. With two straight conference road games on tap (at Buffalo and Central Michigan), the Broncos will be focused for this Homecoming game, with a win meaning a 3-0 start in the MAC. This year's team looks similar in talent to the '06 and '05 editions of the Broncos, who went 9-1 SU at home in those two seasons (lone loss was to Ball State in '05, a multi-OT shootout game which ended 60-57). Broncos roll in this one. Blowout Game of the Month 15* Western Michigan.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (6-2 with FB Insiders to open '08!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Miami-Ohio at 3:30 ET. Al Golden entered his third year at Temple in '08 with a lot of optimism. He went just 1-11 in his first season in Philadelphia (2006) but in '07 the Owls were 4-8 SU and 7-5 ATS. QB Adam DiMichele completed 61.4 percent of his passes in '06 and 61.9 percent in '07, throwing 12 TDs and only 10 INTs. Most importantly, a defense which had allowed more than 30.0 PPG over the previous four seasons (had allowed 45.3 and 41.3 PPG in '05 and '06, respectively), became rejuvenated in '07, allowing 26.3 PPG and almost 90 YPG less than it did in '06. All 11 starters returned on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Temple opened '08 with an easy win at Army and then lost back-to-back heartbreakers. The Owls lost 12-9 in OT to U Conn, a school which is currently 5-0 and ranked 24th in the AP. Then Temple lost 30-28 at Buffalo, when the Bulls connected on a 35-yard TD pass on the game's final play. The Owls visited Happy Valley a week later and QB Adam DiMichele separated his shoulder in the first quarter (after two pass attempts). The Owls have not recovered. After a scoreless first quarter vs the Nittany Lions, Temple went on to lose 45-3. In last week's Homecoming game, Temple lost 7-3 to Western Michigan. Freshman QB Chester Stewart has not been able to adequately replace DiMichele (still out), going 26-of-50 the last two games, while passing for a total of just 176 yards (88.0 per game). He's led the team to just two FGs and has thrown three INTs. Without the threat of a passing game, the Owls' rushing game has totaled just 152 yards the last two weeks (76 per), while averaging 2.3 YPC. It should hardly go unnoticed that Temple has converted just SIX of its 31 third down opportunities these past two weeks. Miami-Ohio comes in just 1-3 but the RedHawks match up well here. QB Raudabaugh is better than his early numbers in '08 (58.9 percent with four TDs and five INTs). He completed 20-of-33 at Michigan for 161 yards (zero TDs and INTs) and 28-of-42 at Cincinnati, for 235 yards with two TDs and just one INT. The Temple 'D' is getting overworked because of the team's offensive struggles and I'm expecting a big game from Raudabaugh in this one. Miami and Temple have met just twice ('05 and '07) and while the schools have split those two meetings, Miami has outgained Temple 876 yards to 493. Miami hasn't played since that September 20 loss at Cincy and head coach Shane Montgomery is 3-0-1 off a bye week. Winning on the road has never come easy for this Temple program, as the Owls are a rather sad 3-31 SU away from home since 2003. The lone wins have come against Sun Belt member MTSU in '03, a 4-8 Akron team last year and at Army to open TY (Army currently owns the nation's longest active overall losing streak at 10 straight). With no DiMichele at QB, the Owls can't move the ball consistently and eventually, the defense will wear down. Las Vegas Insider on Miami-Ohio.
Good Luck...Larry
