Drew Gordon
1. 300,000♦ Duke
2. 50,000♦ Massachusetts
3. 50,000♦ Magic
1. Duke- Many are calling for the Tarheels to revenge their 89-78 home loss to the Blue Devils back on February 6th, but in this case, I just don't see the revenge factor as being enough. The Blue Devils have edges in several key areas, and its those advantages which propel them to the solid home win and cover.
First of all, you cannot deny the importance of home court in tonight's match up. Granted, I know it seems that location doesn't matter much with the road team winning 4 of the last 5 in the series. However, this season is different, because Duke has become a more perimeter oriented team thanks to the lack of a true post presence (ala Sheldon Williams). Perimeter-oriented teams play much better on friendly rims in front of friendly crowds, a big reason why we've seen Duke lose at Wake Forest and at Miami-Florida. And also a big reason why a win here, and the subsequent favorable Regional route through Raliegh-Charlotte, is so critical to this Blue Devils team.
You'd think the change in offensive strategy would negatively effect their season, but the opposite is true, as Coach K is playing to his team's strengths (shooting) and its paid off for bettors, going 9-3-2 ATS in Durham this season. Not only that, but it presents a real problem for a team like North Carolina, that doesn't know what to do when they simply can't outrun you.
Finally, let's take a look at their last meeting, as it was clear the Duke defense won the match up against Lawson-less Tarheels. Of course, they're more potent with Lawson in the lineup, but I'm not convinced he's 100% back yet. Also, the Duke guards created havoc accounting for 11 steals, and shooting the lights out of the basketball (44% from 3-point)... They'll be even tougher at home, that much you can count on. In the end, try as the Tarheels might, the Blue Devils are simply too much at home!
Take Duke over North Carolina as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Massachusetts- You want to talk about a team peaking at precisely the right time?! Massachusetts is rolling, winning and covering 5 straight after a going through a rough patch in early February. George Washington, meanwhile, is just waiting for a merciful end to a pitiful season, that was capped by the dismissal of one of their best players in guard Maurice Rice earlier this week. Needless to say the Colonial are ripe for the pickings tonight.
Granted, George Washington does have a solid record at home, going 8-4 SU & 6-2 ATS, but let's not get carried away. Recent win over struggling Rhode Island doesn't erase their 80-58 shellacking at the hands of La Salle in early February, and the loss of Rice only makes this team that much weaker. In other words, this Colonial team can be beaten at home, especially by the likes of higher-octane offenses (Like La Salle or Massachusetts for that matter). Note the Minutemen are 9-2 ATS over their last 11 meetings with GW.
While the Colonial defense better than the Minutemen's, over their last 5 games UMASS has really started to gel on the defensive end, allowing 72 ppg on 41% shooting (a solid improvement on their 77 ppg on 42% shooting season average). We always knew the Minutemen could score in bunches, but now that their defense is improved, they become extremely dangerous and their 5 straight wins prove it.
Finally, let's talk match ups, as without Maurice Rice the Colonial backcourt is at the mercy of the Minutemen's talented guard duo Gary Forbes and Ricky Harris. Remember the Colonial already lost G Travis King to injury, and now with Rice gone, it leaves the cupboard completely bare, with players like Noel Wilmore (18 minutes/game 5 ppg) left to pick up the slack.
Bottom line, the Minutemen are surging right now, and there's little a short-handed Colonial squad can do to stop them. UMASS offense will overwhelm a George Washington squad playing without a true point guard, while their defense is playing just as well as the Colonial's. End result: A solid road win and cover for this Minutemen squad.
Take Massachusetts over George Washington in this A-10 match up.
3. Magic- Bad spot for a tired Golden State team, playing their 4th road game in just 5 days, including tonight's tail end of a back-to-back, coming off the blowout win over Miami Friday night. Warriors need their high-powered offense firing on all cylinders to beat a Magic team they simply do not match up well against, and in this case, their offense will surely be lagging tonight.
When I say they don't match up well, you know damn well I'm talking about Dwight Howard against this smallish Golden State frontcourt. They can throw whoever they want at Howard, but he'll use the Warriors C Biedrins as a tooth pick on his way to dominating the paint on both ends of the court tonight. In their last meeting, a 123-117 Orlando OT win in Oakland, he scored 18 points and grabbed 23 boards... Look for him to get even more involved offensively in this one.
The other issue the Warriors have is the Magic have the perimeter players to match up with their "go-fast" frontcourt of Jackson and Pietrus. Turkoglu and Lewis are playing great ball right now, complementing Howard perfectly. If you saw the Magic's last game, a 122-92 dismantling of the Wizards in Washington, you saw a team that ran their offense through their bigman and got rewarded, shooting 56% and winning easily. Howard opens up the game for perimeter players, much like Shaq did in his heyday for players like Robert Horry.
Finally, the disparity on defense is significant, especially of late, as the Magic have been allowing only 92 ppg over their last 5 games, going 4-1 SUATS. Golden State meanwhile, has been able to win allowing 107 ppg over the same span, but their luck runs out tonight, about the same time they run out of gas from playing their 4th game in 5 nights. In the end, the Magic protect their house, using their edge with Howard to run right over a struggling Warriors defense playing on tired legs in this one.
Take the Magic comfortably over the Warriors in this NBA match up.
