Dwayne Bryant
9-3 L12
7:10 PM ET
MLB
Cleveland Indians (Laffey) at Minnesota Twins (Slowey)
Minnesota Twins (listed pitchers) -130
Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. Cleveland has lost six straight and nine of their last 11. Minnesota has won three straight and 14 of their last 16. Since starting pitchers rarely go past the seventh inning any more, it has become increasingly important to take each team's bullpen into consideration. Cleveland's pen owns a 5.57 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road, where they've converted only 58% of their save chances. Minnesota's pen owns an impressive 2.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at home, where they've converted 16 of 18 save chances.
Aaron Laffey gets the call for the Indians. Laffey has decent overall numbers, but he has struggled on the road (5.47 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, team is 1-3). Laffey got a win and pitched well against the Twins on June 12th, but that was in Cleveland. Laffey's only other two starts against the Twins came last season at Minnesota. The results? Eight runs allowed on 12 hits in 9 1/3 innings (7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP).
Kevin Slowey takes the mound tonight for the Twins. Slowey is riding a scoreless streak of 17 innings. Since starting the season 0-4 with a 5.49 ERA, Slowey has rebounded nicely over his last eight starts, going 5-2 with a 2.72 ERA. He has been especially amazing in his last three starts, sporting a 0.43 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Slowey's only career start against Cleveland came last season in the dome. He allowed one earned run on five hits in five innings of work (1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP).
The Twins have the better offense, the better bullpen, the better starter and much
more momentum. I almost made this a Best Bet, but chose not to only because I just had a Best Bet last night and I didn't give out a freebie yesterday.
Take Minnesota and Slowey over Cleveland and Laffey.
8:10 PM ET
MLB
San Diego Padres (Peavy) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Davis)
Arizona Diamondbacks (listed pitchers) +108
Jake Peavy is one of those pitchers who people want to bet on as soon as they hear he is starting. He has that kind of reputation. But Peavy pitches for a poor offensive team and his dominance is usually reserved for Petco Park. The Padres are just 5-8 in Peavy's starts this season and he owns a 5.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road. San Diego won the series opener last night, 5-1. The Padres are 2-11 this season after a win by 4 runs or more. That win last night was just the second in 12 games for the Padres.
Doug Davis gets the call for Arizona and he's been steady since returning from his bout with cancer. The D'backs have won four of Davis' five home starts, where he owns a solid 3.64 ERA. Davis faced the Padres three times last season and allowed just six runs in 19 2/3 innings (2.75 ERA). San Diego is just 9-20 vs. lefty starters this season. Davis is 14-3 (Team's Record) at home over the last 2 seasons when the money line is +125 to -125. Davis is also 8-0 (Team's Record) in home games over the last 2 seasons vs. NL teams batting .255 or worse.
In today's MLB, even the best starting pitchers usually only make into the seventh
inning. So we must always consider the bullpens. San Diego's pen is 3-9 with a 4.60
ERA, 1.49 WHIP and only 45.5% save conversions on the road. That's huge considering Peavy is only averaging 5+ innings in his road starts. Arizona's pen is 5-4 with a 3.92 ERA and 78.6% save conversions at home.
Take the home dog, Arizona with Davis, over San Diego and Peavy.
