Robert Ferringo write ups
3-Unit Play. Take #171 Oklahoma St. (-7) over Washington St.
Here we have two teams that are at two completely different stages. Oklahoma State is a dark horse in the ultra-competitive Big 12 which, to me, is the No. 2 conference in the country. Washington State is breaking in a new coach, an entirely new offensive system, and a new quarterback to replace the school?s all-time leading passer. The Cougars are a second-tier team in a conference on the decline (at least for this year) and I think they are still finding themselves. Also, Wazzou players have been dinged up over the past couple weeks and I?ve read reports that Wulff has said that the number of injured players is ?unacceptable?. We already know they will be starting a freshman left tackle and they just dismissed DT Andy Roof this week. Further, this game is being played in Seattle, which negates some of the WSU?s home-field edge and will only make the OSU speed that much more lethal. Oklahoma State is an experience team, with a veteran quarterback leading a sharp, athletic offense. The Cowboys know what they?re doing, and coach Mike ?I?m a Man? Gundy said he learned a lot from last year?s opening-week beat down at Georgia. He will have his Cowboys in Seattle a day earlier and they will be more prepared for this contest. We?ll take the talent and the more advanced offense in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #185 Southern California (-19.5) over Virginia
This is one of those games that I?ve looked at and I just don?t see how it could NOT be a blowout. And it?s not that I am so overwhelmed by USC. That?s not it. It?s that Virginia caught lightning in a bottle in 2007 and were ? literally ? about a half-dozen plays away from being a 4-9 or 5-8 team. They lost their heart and soul in Chris Long and have been gutted on both the offensive and defensive lines. They lost their quarterback, two of their top three wideouts, and seven of their nine starting linemen. Much like the South Carolina game, this is a situation that I just don?t think that UVA will score more than 10 points. The Trojans, on the other hand, will find ways to score with their plethora of skill position players. Also, I like it that they are going on the road to start the season. It gets them out of their comfort zone, gets them away from everyone at home telling them how good they are, and makes them focus on just what?s going on between the lines. The ACC has been dreadful against other BCS schools and is 36-56-3 ATS in nonconference games over the last two years.
2-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+13.5) over Tulsa
I think this number is a little thick for a Tulsa team that is trying to replace seven defensive starters and All-World quarterback Paul Smith. The Golden Hurricanes rang up nearly 700 total yards against the Blazers last year at home, but won just 38-30. Now they open on the road, against a more experienced, improved, revenge-minded UAB club, without their quarterback as a two-touchdown favorite? UAB is 11-1 SU in home openers dating back to 1996 and they are 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last eight years. Tulsa is not a great road program, traditionally, going just 17-32 SU over the last eight seasons. And UAB has a history of early-season surprises. Remember their seven-point loss AT Oklahoma in 2006? Or how about their seven-point loss AT Tennessee in 2005? I remember both clearly. And I think that they might actually get the upset this time around.
2-Unit Play. Take #165 TCU (-6.5) over New Mexico
I am looking for a steep drop-off from New Mexico, a team that had a nice W-L record (9-4) but a weak ATS mark (5-7) last year. Basically, despite a host of talent and one of the better offenses in the Mountain West, the Lobos overachieved and got a bit lucky. Not this year. And not in this game. TCU has been dominating in conference over the last several years (34-14 SU in L6 years, 15-7-2 ATS in L3) and they have owned the Lobos. They have won three straight in the series by an average score of 38-16, including last year?s 37-0 blowout. New Mexico brings back just 10 total starters from that game, including just one offensive lineman, zero linebackers, and zero DE?s. TCU welcomes back 15 starters from the team that rocked the Lobos, including eight defensive starters. The Frogs have a load of experience and a great coach. If this game was played later in the year at this line I might stay away. But I just think that TCU is much further along than NMU and that will negate any home-field edge.
(I WOULD WAIT TO PLAY THESE NEXT TWO PICKS BECAUSE I THINK THE LINES MAY REACH +28)
1.5-Unit Play. #195 Louisiana-Monroe (+26) over Auburn
It?s a similar theme to the weekend: Auburn has a new offense, two new quarterbacks, two new coordinators, and are just 3-3 SU in their last six home openers. Yet they are laying nearly four touchdowns. Curious. Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Charlie Weatherbie. Last year they covered as 26-point underdogs at Clemson and won as 25-point dogs at Alabama. In 2006 they went 3-1 as an underdog of 20 or more points, nearly winning at both Kansas and Kentucky, while also covering at Arkansas. In 2005 they covered at Georgia early in the year also, and in 2004 they covered at both Auburn and Arkansas as underdogs of more than four touchdowns. This is a veteran Warhawks squad, with eight retuning defensive starters and six three-year starters on offense. ULM is 9-3 ATS in the last two years as a road underdog and 12-5 ATS over the L3 years. They are also 8-3 ATS over the last four years as an underdog of 20 or more points, with most of those covers (7-2) coming on the road against SEC opponents. Tony Franklin knows UL-M from his days at Troy, but the Warhawks held Troy to two of its lowest outputs (24 each) the L2 years. That means Monroe might be more familiar with Auburn?s offense than the Tigers are!
2-Unit Play. Take #189 Idaho (+27) over Arizona
The Wildcats are just 3-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven years and just 1-7 ATS in the last three years. Idaho has covered its first game of the year ? a road game as a huge underdog against a marquee BCS foe ? in each of the past three years. Last year they actually put up nearly 200 yards of offense at USC to easily cover a 47-point line, losing 38-10. In 2006 they lost by just 10 at Michigan State (as 29-point dogs) and in 2005 they lost by just 12 at Washington State (as 29-point dogs). Arizona can?t stop anyone and the Vandals, like Arizona, return 10 starters on offense. Arizona is without a key offensive weapon and I have little, if any, confidence in Mike Stoops. And Willie Tuitama, for that matter. The Stoops-Willie combo is a bit shaky, and Stoops is just 2-5-1 ATS in nonconference games in his tenure at U of A. And that doesn?t count three shaky wins over Northern Arizona in non-lined game (agv .win: 20 points). Arizona has also won seven straight home openers, but just by an average of 20 points. I think Idaho can score just enough to keep this one interesting and keep us in the back door.
3-Unit Play. Take #171 Oklahoma St. (-7) over Washington St.
Here we have two teams that are at two completely different stages. Oklahoma State is a dark horse in the ultra-competitive Big 12 which, to me, is the No. 2 conference in the country. Washington State is breaking in a new coach, an entirely new offensive system, and a new quarterback to replace the school?s all-time leading passer. The Cougars are a second-tier team in a conference on the decline (at least for this year) and I think they are still finding themselves. Also, Wazzou players have been dinged up over the past couple weeks and I?ve read reports that Wulff has said that the number of injured players is ?unacceptable?. We already know they will be starting a freshman left tackle and they just dismissed DT Andy Roof this week. Further, this game is being played in Seattle, which negates some of the WSU?s home-field edge and will only make the OSU speed that much more lethal. Oklahoma State is an experience team, with a veteran quarterback leading a sharp, athletic offense. The Cowboys know what they?re doing, and coach Mike ?I?m a Man? Gundy said he learned a lot from last year?s opening-week beat down at Georgia. He will have his Cowboys in Seattle a day earlier and they will be more prepared for this contest. We?ll take the talent and the more advanced offense in this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #185 Southern California (-19.5) over Virginia
This is one of those games that I?ve looked at and I just don?t see how it could NOT be a blowout. And it?s not that I am so overwhelmed by USC. That?s not it. It?s that Virginia caught lightning in a bottle in 2007 and were ? literally ? about a half-dozen plays away from being a 4-9 or 5-8 team. They lost their heart and soul in Chris Long and have been gutted on both the offensive and defensive lines. They lost their quarterback, two of their top three wideouts, and seven of their nine starting linemen. Much like the South Carolina game, this is a situation that I just don?t think that UVA will score more than 10 points. The Trojans, on the other hand, will find ways to score with their plethora of skill position players. Also, I like it that they are going on the road to start the season. It gets them out of their comfort zone, gets them away from everyone at home telling them how good they are, and makes them focus on just what?s going on between the lines. The ACC has been dreadful against other BCS schools and is 36-56-3 ATS in nonconference games over the last two years.
2-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (+13.5) over Tulsa
I think this number is a little thick for a Tulsa team that is trying to replace seven defensive starters and All-World quarterback Paul Smith. The Golden Hurricanes rang up nearly 700 total yards against the Blazers last year at home, but won just 38-30. Now they open on the road, against a more experienced, improved, revenge-minded UAB club, without their quarterback as a two-touchdown favorite? UAB is 11-1 SU in home openers dating back to 1996 and they are 8-3-1 ATS as a home dog over the last eight years. Tulsa is not a great road program, traditionally, going just 17-32 SU over the last eight seasons. And UAB has a history of early-season surprises. Remember their seven-point loss AT Oklahoma in 2006? Or how about their seven-point loss AT Tennessee in 2005? I remember both clearly. And I think that they might actually get the upset this time around.
2-Unit Play. Take #165 TCU (-6.5) over New Mexico
I am looking for a steep drop-off from New Mexico, a team that had a nice W-L record (9-4) but a weak ATS mark (5-7) last year. Basically, despite a host of talent and one of the better offenses in the Mountain West, the Lobos overachieved and got a bit lucky. Not this year. And not in this game. TCU has been dominating in conference over the last several years (34-14 SU in L6 years, 15-7-2 ATS in L3) and they have owned the Lobos. They have won three straight in the series by an average score of 38-16, including last year?s 37-0 blowout. New Mexico brings back just 10 total starters from that game, including just one offensive lineman, zero linebackers, and zero DE?s. TCU welcomes back 15 starters from the team that rocked the Lobos, including eight defensive starters. The Frogs have a load of experience and a great coach. If this game was played later in the year at this line I might stay away. But I just think that TCU is much further along than NMU and that will negate any home-field edge.
(I WOULD WAIT TO PLAY THESE NEXT TWO PICKS BECAUSE I THINK THE LINES MAY REACH +28)
1.5-Unit Play. #195 Louisiana-Monroe (+26) over Auburn
It?s a similar theme to the weekend: Auburn has a new offense, two new quarterbacks, two new coordinators, and are just 3-3 SU in their last six home openers. Yet they are laying nearly four touchdowns. Curious. Louisiana-Monroe has been spry under Charlie Weatherbie. Last year they covered as 26-point underdogs at Clemson and won as 25-point dogs at Alabama. In 2006 they went 3-1 as an underdog of 20 or more points, nearly winning at both Kansas and Kentucky, while also covering at Arkansas. In 2005 they covered at Georgia early in the year also, and in 2004 they covered at both Auburn and Arkansas as underdogs of more than four touchdowns. This is a veteran Warhawks squad, with eight retuning defensive starters and six three-year starters on offense. ULM is 9-3 ATS in the last two years as a road underdog and 12-5 ATS over the L3 years. They are also 8-3 ATS over the last four years as an underdog of 20 or more points, with most of those covers (7-2) coming on the road against SEC opponents. Tony Franklin knows UL-M from his days at Troy, but the Warhawks held Troy to two of its lowest outputs (24 each) the L2 years. That means Monroe might be more familiar with Auburn?s offense than the Tigers are!
2-Unit Play. Take #189 Idaho (+27) over Arizona
The Wildcats are just 3-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven years and just 1-7 ATS in the last three years. Idaho has covered its first game of the year ? a road game as a huge underdog against a marquee BCS foe ? in each of the past three years. Last year they actually put up nearly 200 yards of offense at USC to easily cover a 47-point line, losing 38-10. In 2006 they lost by just 10 at Michigan State (as 29-point dogs) and in 2005 they lost by just 12 at Washington State (as 29-point dogs). Arizona can?t stop anyone and the Vandals, like Arizona, return 10 starters on offense. Arizona is without a key offensive weapon and I have little, if any, confidence in Mike Stoops. And Willie Tuitama, for that matter. The Stoops-Willie combo is a bit shaky, and Stoops is just 2-5-1 ATS in nonconference games in his tenure at U of A. And that doesn?t count three shaky wins over Northern Arizona in non-lined game (agv .win: 20 points). Arizona has also won seven straight home openers, but just by an average of 20 points. I think Idaho can score just enough to keep this one interesting and keep us in the back door.