Cajun-Sports
CFB Executive Report-Saturday
3:30 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
SOUTH CAROLINA +7 over Georgia
The second-ranked Bulldogs open up their SEC schedule on the road, as they make the short trip to Columbia on Saturday to take on the Gamecocks. Georgia began the season as the preseason #1, and has enjoyed a couple of easy wins against inferior competition, while South Carolina has had to contend with a couple of BCS foes. The Gamecocks shutout out North Carolina State , but then got tripped up at Vanderbilt.
Despite the loss, the Gamecocks? defense continues to play well. South Carolina limited Vanderbilt to a mere 225 yards of total offense in the game, including just 90 through the air. The Gamecocks usually play Georgia tough and got the better of the Bulldogs last year.
Most college football fans would say this looks like an easy win for Georgia ; however, things are not always as they seem. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS as a road favorite of 5-15 points since 2004, and we look for the Gamecocks to get off the mat in this game.
The public is pouring the money on Georgia as fast as they can in this nationally televised game. Of course, we love to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
With about 87% of the money coming in on the Bulldogs, we like the forgotten team here, as we also like to play ON a team off an embarrassing nationally televised loss.
As an old handicapper proverb states, ?a team is never as good or as bad as its last game?. Upsets do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and won?t want to touch them the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team.
Conference home underdogs have been greatly undervalued after dropping a road game as big conference favorite. This is detailed by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a conference home underdog of 9 points or less with 5+ days rest off a conference road SU loss of less than 44 points as a favorite of more than 9 points vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 7 or less points.
Since 1993, these teams are a tremendous 13-0 ATS, crushing the spread by 2 TDs per game on average, while winning 12 of the 13 games outright. South Carolina is a PLAY ON team here, as they are for another POWER SYSTEM that advises:
Play ON a home underdog off a non-Saturday favorite ATS loss vs. an opponent not off an ATS win of more than 26 points.
Teams under these basic parameters are 13-0 ATS since 1997, again beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs ppg on average.
We look for the Gamecocks to play much more like they did in the 2nd half of the NC State game, and give the Bulldogs everything they can handle here, and quite possibly be on the other side of the upset this week.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: SOUTH CAROLINA 21 GEORGIA 17
3:30 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
NOTRE DAME +2 over Michigan
The Fighting Irish and the Wolverines renew acquaintances on Saturday to add another chapter to their long-standing, non-conference rivalry.
Michigan lost its opener for the second straight season, falling to Utah by a 25-23 final and ruining the debut of head coach Rich Rodriguez in the process. They were able to bounce back with a lackluster 16-6 triumph over Miami , Ohio last weekend.
As for Notre Dame, Charlie Weiss and crew hope to bounce back in a big way after an embarrassing 2007 season in which the team won just three contests. Things did not look terribly promising last Saturday in the season opener against San Diego State , but a rally enabled the Irish to capture a 21-13 victory.
Both teams look like their defense is ahead of the offense at this point in the season, and we aren?t expecting a lot of fireworks in this game, especially with poor weather in the forecast.
One of our college football handicapping keys is to play AGAINST a favorite with a new head coach taking over a winning program for a coach that has voluntarily left.
When a coach retires on his own, he certainly isn?t doing it with its best year coming up. The team has probably hit a peak and the coach is leaving at the high point just as the expected drop off is on the horizon. Such is the case with Rich Rodriguez taking over in Michigan . The Wolverines could not cover the number as a favorite last week at home against Miami , Ohio , and we don?t look for them to pull it off here, either.
Michigan opened as a 2?-point favorite, a number we look to the underdog with. Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright.
Other numbers confirm that the wrong team here is favored, as Michigan is 0-5 SU (-10.2 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-15.8 ppg) as a favorite vs. Notre Dame playing with revenge for an underdog SU loss, 0-5-1 ATS vs. opponents seeking revenge for a SU loss scoring less than 14 points, and 0-5 ATS (-12.2 ppg) as a favorite at Notre Dame since 1980.
Following 2 home spread losses to start the season with a loss in the first game and a win in the second, teams like the Wolverines have continued to struggle in their 3rd contest. Specifically, Game 3 teams off a home SU win & ATS loss in its last game and a home SU & ATS loss before that are 0-8 ATS since 1991.
Meanwhile, we like to play ON a team getting line value as compared to the preseason pointspread on the game, especially if they are an underdog after being favored in the preseason line.
Unless there have been injuries or some other legitimate reason for the line movement, the team benefiting from the line move should provide plenty of value. Notre Dame was a preseason favorite of more than a FG in this game and now find themselves in the role of home dog. While the didn?t look good against San Diego State in a non-covering win, Michigan certainly doesn?t have anything to brag about with an 0-2 spread mark on the season.
The Irish have not dropped 3 in a row vs. Michigan since 1908. When playing with double revenge vs. Michigan since 1980, they have dominated the games, even though they were underdogs in both contests. In 1987, Notre Dame beat up on the Wolverines at Michigan , 26-7, as a 4-point dog. Then, in 1998, as a 6-point home underdog, the Irish won 36-20.
Perhaps some think the Wolverines have a big edge due to having played 2 games already, while Notre Dame has only played 1; however, database research shows just the opposite. The Irish qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
In Game 2, play ON a home team (not a favorite of more than 2 points or underdog of more than 3 points) with 5+ days rest and not off a SU loss of 8+ points vs. an opponent playing Game 3+.
In games with these tight lines, the home team has been perfect for 20 seasons, going 10-0 SU & ATS, while beating the spread by more than 11 ppg on average. We look for this home team to continue that streak with a victory over the Wolverines.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NOTRE DAME 20 MICHIGAN 14
7:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
Rice +8? over VANDERBILT
An unlikely pairing of unbeaten collide in Nashville on Saturday when the Owls take on the Commodores. Rice has taken control of Conference USA thanks to two straight league victories over SMU and Memphis . Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is coming off a 24-17 upset of then 24th-ranked South Carolina in its SEC opener. It was the first home win over a ranked opponent since 1992 for the Commodores, which kicked off its 2008 campaign with a 34-13 triumph at Miami , Ohio .
This should be an interesting game, as Rice and its prolific offense takes on Vanderbilt and its stingy defense. The Owls gained a great deal of confidence with last week?s road win over the Tigers and we look for them to continue their solid play, as they are a fabulous 8-0 ATS (+15.8 ppg) as an underdog of less than 28 points off a road game.
Unbeaten teams have stayed perfect and easily covered the spread when facing an opponent fresh off a win over an undefeated foe as a home underdog under the circumstances described by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
Play ON an undefeated team (not a favorite of 27+ points or underdog of 20+ points) vs. an opponent off a home underdog SU win against an undefeated team scoring 13+ points.
Since at least 1980, these teams are a powerful 13-0 SU & ATS, blasting the spread by better than 16 ppg on average. Rice qualifies as a ? PLAY ON ? team for that system, as well as another strong POWER SYSTEM that declares:
In Game 3, play ON an underdog of 3-13? points with less than 13 days rest off a road underdog SU win in its last game and a home SU win before that.
This system is also perfect since at least 1980, going a super 16-0 ATS.
As for Vanderbilt, we note that the ?Dores are 0-6 ATS as a non-conference home favorite with less than 13 days rest. After notching its first home win over a ranked team in 16 years, this week's question for Vanderbilt is: Can it handle a rare dose of prosperity? Not likely, as we look to play AGAINST a team off a major upset victory.
Not only did this team have to come through with a super-human effort, odds are the early part of the week was spent celebrating. If the fans and news media are touting a big win and reliving the upset, it?s tough to get these young kids off that cloud and focus on the next opponent in a short week?s time. Meanwhile, the win gave their upcoming opponent bigger incentive and warning. Vandy?s win over South Carolina was one of the biggest in recent seasons and it will be hard for them to bring back that same focus against Rice.
We also like to play AGAINST a team that was faded by a strong early line move and then favored by later line moves.
Early line moves are those that occur in the first few hours after the virgin lines are posted. They are to be respected. The people who move the line early are not fooling around; they are serious players who love to take shots at virgin numbers. The oddsmakers are sharp, but they have to make a line on every game and do make occasional mistakes. Bettors have the advantage of picking and choosing specific games and when they focus on specific games when they first come out, their opinion should be noted with respect. If a line moves strongly during the early period and then heads in the other direction in the normal movement period, we usually have a case for the sharp bettors on one side and the public on the other - a definite scenario for respecting the early move. Here, the Commodores opened as an 8?-point favorite, which was immediately bet down to 7, but has now crept back up, providing us with good line value and the opportunity to side with the sharps against the squares.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RICE 34 VANDERBILT 30
7:45 PM EDT
2 STAR SELECTION
Oklahoma -21 over WASHINGTON
The third-ranked Sooners hit the road for the first time this season, as they make travel to Seattle to battle the Huskies on Saturday.
Oklahoma breezed through their first 2 games by scores of 52-26 and 52-7, while Washington is off to an 0-2 start. It just keeps getting tougher for Ty Willingham's team, as the Huskies have had to take on nationally ranked Oregon and Brigham Young thus far, and now get an ever stiffer test.
After two games, the offensive numbers are simply staggering for Oklahoma and their new no-huddle, spread offense. Sophomore signal-caller Sam Bradford has picked up right where his brilliant freshman campaign left off, as he has completed 77% of his passes, for 578 yards and seven TDs thus far.
The OU defense has been stellar as well, limiting foes to a mere 181 yards of total offense per game. The team has been especially stout against the run, allowing just 1.6 yards per carry and a mere 51.5 yards per game thus far.
The Huskies are likely still deflated following the bitter loss to the Cougars last week. QB Jake Locker scored on a scramble in the waning moments of the fourth quarter to pull within a point, but was called for unsportsmanlike conduct for excessive celebration after the score and pushed the ensuing point-extra attempt back to the 35-yard line, where it was blocked. It will very tough to recover from such a devastating defeat, as Washington is 0-8 ATS (-13.9 ppg) off a SU loss of less than 6 points.
The Sooners are not about to take their foot off the gas here, as they should continue to get more efficient with the new offense. As it is, they are 8-0 ATS (+14.3 ppg) in regular season non-conference games, while Washington is 0-5 SU (-21.8 ppg) & 0-5 ATS (-11.5 ppg) as a non-conference underdog vs. BCS opponents.
Oklahoma also qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTES that documents how teams off 2 big home wins have done on the road when facing opponents off a close loss. It states:
Play ON a favorite of more than 6 points off a Saturday home SU win of 15+ points in its last game and a home SU win of 15+ points before that vs. an opponent off an underdog SU loss of less than 6 points scoring less than 36 points.
Since 1992, these teams are a rock solid 12-0 SU & ATS, winning outright by more than 34 ppg, while blasting the spread by better than 2 TDs per game on average.
The Sooners haven?t forgotten their last trip to the West Coast when they were robbed blind at Oregon . They will take it to the ?Dawgs here and put one more nail in Ty Willingham?s coaching coffin.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: OKLAHOMA 45 WASHINGTON 17
"CAJUN SPORTS WEEKLY FREE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTION"
7:30 PM EDT
1 STAR SELECTION
CONNECTICUT ?10? over Virginia
The Big East?s Huskies look to improve to 3-0 on Saturday when they host the ACC?s Cavaliers, who are 1-1 on the season.
After getting blown out by top-ranked USC, 52-7, on opening weekend, Virginia grinded out a 16-0 win over 1-AA Richmond last weekend. This game will be the first road trip for the Cavs and their only non-conference road game this season.
In a rain-drenched game, Connecticut slipped by Temple in overtime last weekend, 12-9. Now, the Huskies are aiming for a 10th straight home victory, and would love to get it in revenge style for a 17-16 loss at Virginia last year.
Once again, the Cavaliers offense struggled against the Richmond Spiders, as Virginia ?s running ?attack? was held to 91 yards and an average of 2.4 ypc. Peter Lalich went 21-of-39 for 204 yards and two INTs, and now he is out for this game with the Huskies, so that he can concentrate on legal problems and not be a distraction to the team.
If it weren't for junior tailback Donald Brown, UConn almost certainly wouldn't be shooting for 3-0 this weekend. Against Temple , Brown ran for a career-high 214 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown on the Huskies first possession of overtime.
At this point, both teams look to have better defenses than offenses; however, we like UConn?s chances of continuing their good defensive play, while the Cavaliers are likely to cave according to the numbers. Under Al Groh, Virginia is a horrible 0-12 SU (-18.9) & 0-12 ATS (-14.3) on the road after allowing less than 14 points and not an ATS loss of 6+ points, as well as 0-5 ATS (-15.3 ppg) vs. non-conference opponents and not favored by more than 6 points.
In a strong dichotomy of angles, we find that the Cavs are 0-5-1 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points vs. opponents playing with revenge, while the Huskies are 9-0 ATS at home with revenge and not an underdog of more than 23 points.
The price is certainly right for Connecticut here, as they are 5-0 ATS (+31.6 ppg) & 5-0 ATS (+13.6 ppg) as a favorite of more than 7 points and less than 30 points since 2004.
Finally, our database research shows that with a short week coming up before another home game, home favorites have taken care of business under the circumstances outlined by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a home favorite of 3-42? points before a lined home game with less than 6 days rest and not off a conference road favorite SU win vs. an opponent not off a lined SU win.
Since at least 1980 these teams are 17-0 SU & 16-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 11 ppg on average. The Huskies qualify as a PLAY ON team for the system and we like their chances here to roll over the Cavaliers for a solid SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 31 VIRGINIA 10
8:00 PM EDT
5 STAR SELECTION
Ohio State +11? over USC
In what could be the game of the year in college football, the top-ranked Trojans host the 5th-ranked Buckeyes on Saturday. Both perennial powers have their sights set on a national title and the winner of this game will take a huge step in making it to the BCS Title game.
Ohio State has played in the last two championship games but suffered 2 blowouts, leaving a lasting impression in the minds of college football fans. The Buckeyes are 2-0 on the season, but both games provided scares. In the opener, star RB Chris Wells suffered an injury and will not play in this game according to Jim Tressel. In the second game, Ohio State struggled greatly against the Ohio Bobcats of the MAC, which dropped the team in the rankings.
USC would seem to have everything in their favor. They not only get this game at home, but also have the luxury of being well rested, as USC sat idle a week ago, and are coming off an eye-opening 52-7 thrashing of Virginia . The lopsided victory pushed USC ahead of Georgia in the national polls and into the top spot.
While the offense may be rather ordinary without Wells, the Ohio State defense is absolutely loaded with talented playmakers, led by Butkus Award winner and All-American James Laurinaitis. The 6-3, 240-pound senior is regarded as the best linebacker in the country and has gotten off to a fast start again this year, recording 14 tackles thus far, including a sack. He is flanked by fifth-year senior Marcus Freeman (12 tackles) and sophomore Ross Homan (10 stops).
The Buckeyes stop unit will certainly have their hands full here, as USC?s Mark Sanchez looks like he is well on his way to being the next great QB. The Trojans defense is perhaps second only to Ohio State in talent
Getting this game at home is a huge plus for USC on paper, but it could be something that works to their disadvantage if the Trojans rely on it to be a big factor. In games involving Ohio State and expected to be at least semi-competitive, the home team has actually done quite poorly over the past several seasons. Our database research reveals that since 2003, the home team in non-conference games involving the Buckeyes is 0-6 ATS, dropping the last 4 games outright, when not favored by 14+ points. If we look at ALL Ohio State games in which the home team is not a favorite of 14+ points or an underdog of 24+ points, the home team is a horrible 1-11 SU (-18.8 ppg) & 0-12 ATS (-12.2 ppg).
We also note that Ohio State is 7-0 ATS (+13 ppg) as an underdog of 7+ points off an ATS loss since 1987, while USC is 0-3 ATS the last 3 in the reverse role; the Buckeyes are a super 10-0 SU (+16.1 ppg) & 10-0 ATS (+11.7 ppg) on the road with less than 13 days rest vs. a .666%+ opponent; OSU is also 10-0 SU (+21.6 ppg) & 10-0 ATS (+13.5 ppg) in the regular season off an ATS loss and not favored by more than 27 points.
Given the way USC dominated Virginia , and how Ohio State struggled with Ohio last week, the Trojans have emerged as a somewhat significant favorite. More than 3 of every 4 bets on this game is being laid down on the Trojans, and this game is awash in public money. This provides us an ideal example of playing AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games.
These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business.
By our estimation, Ohio State is under-valued at this point, and USC is over-valued. Following a non-conference victory over a team from the weak ACC, teams have struggled in the role of favorite recently. Specifically, favorites off a non-conference, non-OT SU win over an ACC foe are 0-7 ATS going back to last year, failing to cover the spread by more than 16 ppg on average!
The Buckeyes won't back down on either side of the ball and should be able to match USC's intensity. Whether Wells makes an appearance on the field, Jim Tressel will have his team ready to play and keep this one razor close, easily covering the double-digit number.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: USC 21 OHIO STATE 20
8:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
BOISE STATE -16? over Bowling Green
The Broncos get back to business Saturday evening when they come in well rested to take on the visiting Falcons in a non- conference contest. Boise State started off the season with a comfortable 49-7 victory against in-state rival Idaho State at home back on August 30th.
As for the Falcons, they began this season with a stunning upset of nationally-ranked Pittsburgh , 27-17, on the road. They were brought back to earth last week by Minnesota , a team they defeated in the 2007 opener by a score of 32-31 in overtime, but this time around the Golden Gophers came out firing and recorded a convincing 42-17 victory at Bowling Green .
This meeting represents just the second ever between the two programs, with the Broncos having handed out a 48-20 thrashing of the Falcons three seasons ago, and we look for more of the same here.
Bowling Green had their moment to shine in the opener, but suffered a big letdown last week that?s likely to carry over here, as they are an ugly 0-7 ATS (-17.9 ppg) off a SU loss vs. an opponent off a SU win. Boise State is 7-0 ATS in the reverse role on Saturdays as a favorite of 8+ points, creating a strong dichotomy of angles for the Broncos.
Our database research provides more ammunition, as after following up a win on the road to start the season with a home loss, big underdogs on the road have continued to falter. The Falcons qualify for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
In Game 3, play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 12 points off a home SU loss in its last game and a road SU win before that vs. an opponent not off a road underdog SU win.
Since at least 1980, these teams are 0-7 SU & ATS, losing outright by 40 ppg and failing to cover the spread by a whopping 19.5 ppg on average.
Still more numbers reveal that Boise State at home vs. non-conference teams other than Mountain West Conference teams are 6-0 SU (30 ppg) & 6-0 ATS (+15.5 ppg) and a tremendous 13-0 ATS (+16.8 ppg!) at home with 7+ days rest in the regular season from September on and not favored by 38+ points.
We expect the Falcons to be their next victim, as a spirited Broncos team should gallop away with a SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BOISE STATE 45 BOWLING GREEN 17
