Marc Lawrence
5* Penn State
4* Auburn
3* Miami-Ohio
John Ryan
Houston U vs. Oklahoma State
Play:Oklahoma State -15.5
3* graded play on Oklahoma State - Ai Simulator shows a 70% probability that Ok State will win this game by 16 or more points. AiS also shows that Oklahoma State will have a balanced offensive attack, but due to a strong running game, the pass routes will be available to exploit as well. Oklahoma has an 85% probability of gaining 9.5 yards per pass in this game. This puts Houston into a 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992. AiS reveals a 82% probability that Oklahoma State will ahve a MINIMUM of 450 total yards in offense. Notet hat Oklahoma State is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 67-31 for 68% since 1992. Play on home favorites after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Houston is off a solid game last week winning 55-3 against Southern and recorded just 1 turnover. let?s face it Southern is not much of a measuring stick to how good Houston is this s eason. I do know that Housto is just 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Oklahoma State.
Tom Freese
Miami Fla at Florida
Florida is 10-2 ATS their last 12 Non-Conference games and they are 6-0 ATS their last 6 Non-Conference home games. The Gators are 32-17 ATS after allowing 75 or less yards rushing in their last game and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. winning teams. Miami of Florida is 0-6 ATS on the road after one or more straight up wins and they are 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 14 or less points in their last game. The Hurricanes are 1-10 ATS their last 11 games after scoring 41 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON FLORIDA -
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Temple
The Owls host the Huskies in a non-conference clash at Lincoln Financial Field Saturday afternoon with revenge on their minds. UConn has beat Temple in each of last two meetings in this series but its the Owls that owns the checkbook as they are 4-0 ATS in head-to-head meetings. Both teams opened with big wins last week when Connecticut hammered Hofstra, 35-2, at home whilr Temple annihilated Army, 35-7, at West Point. With the Owls owning 21 starters from last year's team and UConn looking ahead to a revenger with Virginia next week, look for Temple to make it back-to-back wins here this afternoon.
David Malinsky
Georgia Tech @ Boston College
PICK: 4* Boston College -6.5
One of our prime axioms in college sports is that when major system changes are made in a program the team is likely to take a step backwards regardless of how good the new coach is. We used that to cash an easy ticket against S.M.U. and June Jones last week, and we see more of the same against Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech here, particularly based on the matchups at hand in this game.
Johnson has brought the complex option packages that were so successful at Navy to the Yellow Jackets, and while he will be successful in time, the transition period will be rocky. It was an ugly spring, with 14 fumbles in one April scrimmage, and then nine in the spring game, and despite running mostly vanilla plays against Jacksonville State last week the offense still fumbled five times, losing two. That was against an opponent that they could push around in the trenches, which kept option plays and passes to a minimum, but now it is an entirely different matchup. Not only are they heading to the road, but Boston College brings one of the toughest defensive front seven?s in the nation. The Eagles were #2 against the run LY despite playing without N. J. Raji (academics) and Brian Toal (red-shirt), but now those two are back to create a wall that will not allow much of anything between the tackles. That means that soph QB Josh Nesbitt will have to make things happen on the perimeter in his first college road start, and also through the air. That is unlikely to happen. The B. C. defense held a more experienced Tech offense to 267 yards in an easy 24-10 road win LY, and now the setting is even more favorable.
The inexperience of Nesbitt is only the beginning of Johnson?s problems, however. There are 16 players on the two-deep chart that have never played a single down on the road, including five starters. And with new systems on both sides of the ball, that means the kind of mistakes that come with youth. There is also a major cluster injury problem at LB, with starters Brad Jefferson and Anthony Barnes sidelined, which makes them extremely thin, and will force a pair of true freshmen into action. From Johnson - ?We?re probably going to have our hands forced and we?re going to have to play more of them (freshmen). Just from the standpoint of depth, we just don?t have anybody.?
Because of the inexperience with his playbook Johnson would like to not reach back into his bag of tricks, but he may have to in order to have any chance here. But keep in mind that B. C. defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani was the interim head coach when the Eagles beat Johnson and his Navy team in a bowl game in December of 2006, which meant nearly a full month of studying Johnson?s tactics then, and with many of the same faces still playing for the Eagles, it helps to have them well-prepared now.
Jeff Benton
Frankly, I?m just not sold on the Bulldogs like most everyone else is. Don?t get me wrong ? they?re a very deep, talented and experienced squad. But I have to believe Georgia?s players read all the press clippings in the summer about how great there are, and that?s gotta have an affect on 18- to 22-year-old kids.
I?m not saying Georgia loses this game to Central Michigan ? I just don?t think it?s going to be a four-touchdown blowout, that?s all. In addition to Georiga?s potential overconfidence, I think the Chippewas can put up a decent fight. The two-time defending MAC champs have 16 returning starters, including versatile QB Dan LeFevour, who had 27 passing TDs and 19 rushing TDs last year. (Last week against Eastern Illinois, LeFevour went 21-for-31 for 217 yards and three TDs, while adding 42 rushing yards, in a 31-21 win.)
Also, this isn?t the first time this experienced Central Michigan squad has knocked heads with a formidable foe. Last year, the Chippewas faced Purdue (twice), Kansas and Clemson. Yes, all three destroyed the Chips in the regular season (Purdue won by just three in a bowl game), but now with another year under their belt and a possible Top 25 spot on the horizon, I expect Central Michigan to give a much stronger effort here.
Throw in the fact that Georgia, which is 1-5 ATS in its last six as a double-digit favorite, has a legitimate revenge game on deck against South Carolina, and I?ll take the generous points with CMU, which has cashed in 24 of its last 34 lined games.
5% CENTRAL MICHIGAN
KING CREOLE
90% ATS System
Northwestern Wildcats @ Duke Blue Devils
Play on: DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Since this System hit on Thursday night with VANDERBILT... and it has another qualifier on Saturday, count me IN! Most players are aware that Duke's win over Northwestern last year probably kept the Wildcats out of a Bowl appearance. So there's big time REVENGE going here. But like the Commodores proved 2 nights ago, sometimes it's better to play INTO Revenge.
27-13 ATS since 1980: GAME TWO home DOGS (Duke) playing INTO non-conference Revenge. Shorter dogs of +7.5 or less points have gone 20-8 ATS in this same time span... and an almost PERFECT 9-1 ATS since 1998
Alex Smart
UNLV @ Utah
Prediction: Utah
HC Kyle Whittinghams Utah Utes (No.23)ming off the biggest win in the schools history, against the Michigan Wolverines last week in the big house, by a score of 25-23, covering as 3.5 point underdogs . A let down you would think would be inevitable , despite of this being a MWC conference opener. Guess again, as the Utes have a huge revenge scenario on board this week against a UNLV Runnin Rebels team, that upset them in embarrassing fashion last season, by a score of 27-0 . To add insult to injury, the Rebels top RB Frank ? The Tank ? Summers, a Jerome Bettis look alike , told the media , after that above mentioned loss , that the Utes, were diving for his ankles, as they looked to avoid making body tackles against the bruising runner . Needless to say the Utah D , that allowed the Wolverines just 4 rushing yards in the first half last week, did not take kindly to his words, and will use them as motivation in in front of what is expected to be a sell out crowd of 30,000 plus.
The Rebels know a run away train is headed their way this week, and will have a game plan set up that will try to get them out of here here without being humiliated , however, that will be easier said than done ,against a far superior foe .
Final notes & Key Trends: Utah is 11-1 L/12 in this series , with last years loss the first since 1979. Utah has lost 15 straight Mountain West road games, and 20 of their 21 overall away from Sin city . Runnin' Rebels are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win.
Projected score: Utah 41 UNLV 10
Brian Gabrielle
FL Hurricanes vs Florida Gators
The Florida Gators were sensational in their first game of the season. By whipping the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 56 to 10, the Gators signaled to college football betting fans that they are definitely a team to key football bets around this season.
The Gators offense was spectacular as usual, racking up four touchdowns in both the second and third quarters, but it was their defense that looked absolutely awesome. The Gators held the Rainbows to 10 points and all 10 points were scored in the fourth quarter when the Gators had the game well in hand.
Florida will look to continue their dominance this weekend when they face the in state rival Miami Hurricanes. The Hurricanes look to be much improved from last year with athleticism on both sides of the ball. Football betting fans wonder whether or not the Hurricanes have improved enough to handle a team like Florida.
It?s too early to talk trends in this game. So, we?re going to have to just consider the notion that both teams will play to the best of their ability. With that being written, are the Florida Gators really more than three touchdowns better than the Miami Hurricanes?
They could very well be. This Florida Gator team is loaded in every position. So much so that they racked up 56 points against Hawaii without Percy Harvin, their best wide receiver, linebacker Brandon Spikes and guard Jim Tartt. With those three returning to the line-up, what chance do the Hurricanes actually have of beating the Florida Gators in this game?
Oh, yeah, the Hurricanes don?t have to actually beat the Gators. They just have to lose by no more than 21 points. The Hurricanes have improved enough for me to believe that beating the BetUS online sportsbook spread of 21? is absolutely doable. They are adept at playing a much faster game with quarterback James Harris running the spread offense with abandon. He racked up over 70 yards rushing and 190 yards passing. Tim Tebow, Harris is not, but he won?t have to be for NCAAF betting fans to win this wager.
I?ll be making an online bet on the Miami Hurricanes to beat the BetUS online football betting spread of 21? points in this Saturday game.
One thing to note is that Hurricane Hannah, yes, it?s a real storm and not a crazy woman who keep bothering Florida recruits, is on its way to the state of Florida. We?ll have to wait and see how it impacts the start of this game.
Take Miami + 21 ?
Matt Fargo
Minnesota @ Bowling Green
PICK: Minnesota +5.5
Bowling Green is coming off a monster upset at Pittsburgh and this is not a very good spot for the Falcons. They trailed 14-0 early but came back thanks to the Panthers basically giving it away. Pittsburgh actually outgained Bowling Green 393-254 but four turnovers did the Panthers in. It was the first win over a top 25 team since 2003 so if ever there is a chance for a letdown, this is it.
Minnesota is coming off a home win over Northern Illinois to start the season. It was a much closer game than expected and it took a touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining for the Gopher to avoid yet another opening game upset from a MAC opponent. Last season, it was Bowling Green who defeated the Gophers in overtime to start they ear so Minnesota is playing with some revenge.
The Gophers put up 425 yards of total offense and that will be the strength again this year. Minnesota has nine returning starters on offense, including quarterback Adam Weber, who led the offense in rushing and passing last year. It finished 48th in total offense which was outstanding considering it was the first year the new offense was in place. The Gophers scored 31 or more points six times so they are right on pace with that again after matching that against the Huskies.
The Falcons defense played well against the Panthers but they could be in for some trouble here. Minnesota put up 434 yards in last season?s meeting including 246 yards on the ground. The rushing defense allowed a whopping 207.9 ypg last season and while it did a good job against Pittsburgh on Saturday, this spread attack will be much tougher to defend. Bowling Green finished 93rd overall and 94th in scoring defense a season ago.
This line is the first thing that jumps out. Bowling Green did take out a team from the Big East but now being favored by a decent amount over a Big Ten team is simply too aggressive. The MAC has provided many upsets over the years but the question is can Bowling Green do it two weeks in a row? I say there is no chance but we get enough points to cover a close game if it comes down to it. Look for the Gophers outright. Play Minnesota Golden Gophers 1.5 Units
Larry Ness
Florida -22.5 vs Miami
Amazingly, the Gators have lost their last six meetings with the Hurricanes, although this is the first meeting between these two rivals since the '04 Peach Bowl (Miami won, 27-10). That's worth pointing out because from '05-'07, while the Gators have gone 31-8 (including winning a national championship in '06), the 'Canes are just 21-16 (12-24 ATS!) during that span, including a 5-7 mark last year. Florida 'warmed up' for its meeting with Miami by trouncing overmatched Hawaii last Saturday in "The Swamp," beating the Rainbows 56-10. Tebow was asked to do very little but the Florida defense was in mid-season form, holding the Rainbows without a TD until the game's final two minutes. Florida's 2ndy returned two INTs for TDs, plus James threw in a 74-yard punt return TD as well. Miami opened last Saturday with a 52-7 home win over Charleston Southern, christening its new home (Dolphin Stadium), after spending seven decades in the Orange Bowl. True freshman QB Jacory Harris accounted for two touchdowns. Harris started only because first-string QB Robert Marve (a red-shirt freshman) was serving a one-game suspension for disciplinary reasons. Marve is expected to start here and ironically will square-off against Heisman-winner Tim Tebow. A "side story" to this game is the fact that Marve broke Tebow's state high school records for yards and TDs. Expect Tebow to bring his "A-game" for this contest against a Miami defenses adapting to its third DC in the last three years. The Hawaii 'cover' makes Florida 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games (since the beginning of LY) and Miami, with just eight returning starters, is just 3-7 ATS on the road the last two years, including blowout losses at Oklahoma (51-13) and Virginia Tech (44-14) last season. Lay the points with the Gators.
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KC-123 (meche) +29.00 units on the year playing .5 or 1 unit per game.
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millionaires
east carolina +7.5
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Miami-Ohio
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Stanford
Lance's Lock
Overall record: 660-553-23
Current streak: 1 win
Todays play: Boston College -6'
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Georgia Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Boston College (1-0 SU and ATS)
Boston College begins its quest to defend its Atlantic Division title when it hosts Georgia Tech in the first ACC game of the season.
Both teams prepped for this contest with easy victories last week. Boston College rushed for 230 yards en route to blanking Kent State 21-0 as a 10-point road favorite, while Georgia Tech easily disposed of I-AA foe Jacksonville State 41-14 in a non-lined game. The Yellow Jackets had 349 rushing yards, but did commit two turnovers.
The Eagles have struggled in ACC contests of late, going 1-4 ATS in their last five and they?ve struggled getting the cash in front of the home fans, going 0-4 ATS in the last four. On the plus side, Boston College is on ATS runs of 6-2 in September games and 15-7 against teams with a winning record.
The ?Jackets are on ATS slides of 1-4 overall dating back to last season, 0-5-1 after a straight-up win and 1-4 against a team with a winning mark. But in the role of underdog, Georgia Tech is 6-2-1 ATS over the last two campaigns.
Boston College took last year?s battle, getting a 24-10 win as a 6?-point road ?dog. The underdog has cashed in four of the last five between these two dating back to 1989, and the road team has won four straight outright.
Georgia Tech has stayed under in 14 of its last 21 September kickoffs, but the Yellowjackets have topped the total in their last four overall. Boston College has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 home games and five of its last seven in September. But otherwise for the Eagles, the under is on streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in ACC battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
(Cool West Virginia (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at East Carolina (1-0 SU and ATS)
A week after a thrilling upset victory over Virginia Tech, East Carolina will try to shock yet another Top 25 foe when it hosts West Virginia in a non-conference clash.
The Pirates returned a blocked punt for a game-clinching touchdown in the waning minutes against Virginia Tech a week ago, winning 27-22 as a 9?-point home underdog. East Carolina held a massive edge in total offensive, piling up with 369 yards to Va-Tech?s 243.
West Virginia fattened up on Villanova in its opener, rolling 48-21 in a non-lined game. The Mountaineers, always among the nation?s leaders in rushing, finished with just 149 yards on the ground, but passed for 205, while the defense forced three turnovers.
The Pirates have been a moneymaking machine in recent seasons, going 21-8 ATS dating back to the 2005 campaign, including 18-6 ATS as a ?dog. The Pirates are on additional ATS streaks of 11-3 in September, 4-1 at home, 3-0 against teams with a winning record and 10-4 in non-conference matchups. However, against Big East opposition, East Carolina is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10.
West Virginia has won eight of its last nine games dating back to last September and the Mountaineers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road outings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 on grass. They?ve also scored at least 28 points in eight of their last nine (4-4 ATS).
West Virginia has dominated this annual rivalry game, winning nine of the last 10 and cashing five of the last seven, including last year?s 48-7 blowout victory as a 24-point home chalk. The straight-up winner is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
For the Pirates, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 at home, 4-0 when they face a winning team and 5-1-1 after a spread-cover. For West Virginia, the over is 9-4 in its last 13 non-conference games, but the under is 7-2 in its last nine after a straight-up victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Cincinnati (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
After an easy victory in Week 1, Cincinnati takes a big step up in class when it visits Norman, Okla., to battle the fourth-ranked Sooners.
The Bearcats took it to Division I-AA Eastern Kentucky in a 47-17 opening-week victory, finishing with a 557-195 advantage in total offense, including 209-48 on the ground.
Oklahoma feasted on its own cupcake a week ago, opening up a 50-0 halftime lead en route to a 57-2 home victory over Tennessee-Chattanooga. QB Sam Bradford was sharp, completing 17 of 22 passes for 183 yards and two touchdowns in limited action for the Sooners, who ended with a ridiculous 487-36 edge in total offense.
The Bearcats are on positive ATS streaks of 15-5-2 overall, 8-2-1 as an underdog (4-0 last year), 5-1 on the highway, 6-0 in September, 11-2 on grass, 5-1 versus winning teams and 23-8-1 on the road against winning teams.
The Sooners are on ATS runs of 6-1 in September, 9-4 at home and 4-1 in non-conference matchups. On the negative side, Oklahoma is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 overall and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a straight-up win.
Cincinnati is on under runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 following a straight-up victory. Conversely, Oklahoma has topped the total in eight of nine non-conference games, six of nine at home and six of eight in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (Fla.) (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at (5) Florida (1-0 SU and ATS)
Tim Tebow and the Gators renew their in-state rivalry with Miami (Fla.), and they do so as a massive favorite to upend the Hurricanes at The Swamp in Gainesville.
Tebow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was rather pedestrian in his first game as a junior, completing 9 of 14 passes for 137 yards and one TD while adding 37 rushing yards against Hawaii. But it didn?t matter as Florida crushed the Warriors 56-10, easily covering as a 34?-point home favorite.
The Hurricanes took an even easier route to their first victory of 2008, blasting Charleston Southern 52-7 in a non-lined game. Miami had 224 rushing yards, 192 passing yards and held Charleston Southern to just 126 total yards.
Miami is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games overall and on further negative ATS streaks of 5-11 against winning teams, 3-7 on the highway, 3-9 in September and 3-8 in non-conference games. Additionally, the ?Canes went just 4-8 ATS last year and are now 12-24 ATS since 2005, including 5-10 ATS on the road in that span and 0-5 ATS in non-conference roadies.
Urban Meyer?s Gators went 6-1 ATS as home favorites last season and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against non-conference foes. Florida is also on ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 8-2 against winning teams and 5-1 on grass, but the Gators are just 2-5 in their last seven September kickoffs.
These two squads haven?t met since 2004, but Miami has been dominant in this series, winning six straight dating back to 1986, including a 27-10 win back in 2004, easily getting the cash as a four-point home favorite. Miami is 5-1 ATS against the Gators since 1986, and the straight-up winner is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.
For Miami, the under is on streaks of 40-18 overall, 20-6 in non-conference games, 12-3 in September and 17-6 on grass. Florida has stayed under the total in 10 of its last 14 September games, but otherwise the over for the Gators is on streaks of 8-1 overall, 16-5 on grass, 5-1 at home and 5-1 in non-conference games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA
(12) Texas Tech (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Nevada (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
The scoreboard figures to be working overtime in Reno tonight, as Texas Tech visits Nevada in a battle between two high-powered offenses.
Texas Tech blew out I-AA Eastern Washington 49-24 in a non-lined home game last week, with star QB Graham Harrell playing the entire game and finishing 43-for-58 for 536 passing yards, two TDs and one INT.
Normally a passing team, the Wolf Pack put their running game on display against I-AA Grambling last Saturday, rushing for 426 yards in a 49-13 non-lined home win. Nevada?s defense also stepped up, allowing Grambling just 5 net rushing yards on 40 carries.
The Red Raiders have been a solid play as double-digit chalk since 2003, going 14-7 ATS, including 5-2 ATS as double-digit road favorites. Otherwise Texas Tech is on ATS slides of 5-12 following a straight-up win, 2-5 in non-conference games, 1-4 on the road and 2-6 against winning teams.
The Wolfpack has been tough in front of the home fans, going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 in Reno. They are also on ATS surges of 6-2 in non-conference games and 5-1 in September.
For Texas Tech, the over is on streaks of 10-3 following a straight-up win, 5-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 in September. On the flip side, Nevada is on a host of under streaks, including 4-0 overall, 6-1 at home, 8-2 following a straight-up win and 4-1 at home against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH
(15) BYU (1-0, 0-0 ATS) at Washington (0-1 SU and ATS)
Washington tries to get over the sting of an ugly season-opening loss at Oregon when it welcomes 15th-ranked BYU to Seattle for a non-conference tussle.
The Huskies rallied from an early 14-0 hole against the Ducks on Saturday and closed to within 14-10 at halftime. After the break, though, Washington got steamrolled, losing 44-10 as a 13?-point road underdog, the team?s third straight loss (1-2 ATS) and its 10th in the last 12 games (4-8 ATS). The Huskies gave up 256 rushing yards and 240 passing yards while producing just 242 total yards on their end.
BYU, which is being billed as a possible BCS Bowl party-crasher, got off to a fine start last week, albeit against I-AA Northern Iowa, rolling 41-17 in a non-lined game, extending the nation?s longest winning streak to 11 in a row (6-4 ATS in lined games). QB Max Hall (34-for-41, 485 yards, two TDs, no INTs) was outstanding versus Northern Iowa, but the Cougars got outgained on the ground 149-77 and committed four second-half turnovers.
BYU is 22-11-1 ATS in its last 33 games going back to the middle of the 2005 season. Additionally, the Cougars are on spread-covering tears of 14-7 as a favorite since 2006, 7-3 as a road chalk since 2005, 7-2 against losing teams and 11-5 on the road.
Washington has been a miserable bet at home the last three-plus seasons, going 11-27-2 ATS. However, the Huskies have cashed in four of their last five non-league outings.
These teams met for four straight seasons from 1996-99, with Washington going 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS). The home team is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six battles since 1985.
The over is 4-0 in Washington?s last four at home, but the under is 5-2 in BYU?s last seven lined games overall and 5-0 in its last five against the Pac-10.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BYU
Ole Miss (1-0 SU and ATS) at (20) Wake Forest (1-0 SU and ATS)
Having kicked off the Houston Nutt era in impressive fashion, Ole Miss now heads out on the road for a tough assignment against Wake Forest.
The Rebels were about as balanced offensively as you could possibly be last week against Memphis, rushing for 216 yards and passing for 222 en route to a 41-24 victory as a 7?-point chalk. However, the defense surrendered 453 yards (188 rushing), but did force two turnovers. Last year, Ole Miss started the season with a win over Memphis, but then lost nine of its final 11 games.
Wake Forest took the field as a preseason Top 25 squad for the first time in school history on Aug. 28 and lived up to its ranking, blitzing Baylor 41-13 as an 11?-point road favorite. Like Ole Miss, the Demon Deacons had a balanced attack (156 rushing yards, 220 passing yards), while the defense forced five turnovers.
Wake Forest has now won and covered four in a row, and since starting out 2007 with consecutive losses, Jim Grobe?s squad is 10-2 SU in its last 12. Also, in addition to cashing in four straight, the Deacons are on ATS rolls of 8-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 13-3 against winning teams.
Going back to the end of last season, the Rebels have covered the number in four straight lined games and six of the last seven. During this stretch, they?re 3-0 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a ?dog. On the downside, Ole Miss is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 September contests and 3-9 in its last 12 non-conference games.
The schools last faced each other in 2006 in Oxford, Miss., with the Demon Deacons cruising to a 27-3 victory as a two-point road underdog.
The under is on streaks of 7-2 for Ole Miss in September, 20-8 for Ole Miss on the road, 7-2 for Wake Forest in September, 9-3 for Wake at home and 15-5-1 for Wake in non-conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and UNDER
Stanford (1-0 SU and ATS) at (15) Arizona State (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
Stanford, which won just three conference games a season ago, looks to start off 2008 with consecutive Pac-10 victories when it travels to Tempe, Ariz., for what figures to be a daunting matchup against the Sun Devils.
The Cardinal kicked off the second year of the Jim Harbaugh era with an impressive 36-28 home win over Oregon State as a three-point underdog. Coupled with last year?s season-ending 20-13 upset of Cal, Stanford has won consecutive games for the first time since October 2005, a stretch of 30 contests.
Against Oregon State, the Cardinal did the bulk of their damage on the ground (210 rushing yards), but the defense allowed a whopping 404 passing yards. They prevailed in large part by winning the turnover battle (3-0).
Arizona State easily dispatched of Northern Arizona 30-13 in a non-lined Week 1 contest. Senior QB Rudi Carpenter was in midseason form, going 22-for-38 for 388 yards and a touchdown, but the Devils got outgained on the ground (139-94).
The Sun Devils have blasted Stanford the last two seasons, winning 38-3 as a 23?-point home favorite in 2006 and 41-3 as a 15-point road chalk last year. Previously, the Cardinal had been on a 7-1 run in this rivalry. Finally, the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings.
Despite last week?s win, Stanford remains mired in ATS funks of 6-14 in conference play, 1-9 in September and 8-13 as an underdog. Conversely, ASU is on a 20-8-1 ATS roll in September and a 10-1 ATS spurt as a double-digit favorite, but Dennis Erickson?s squad ended 2007 with five straight non-covers.
For Stanford, the under is on runs of 45-17-1 overall, 37-14-1 in Pac-10 play and 23-6-1 on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona State sports under streaks of 12-4 overall in lined games and 4-1 in Pac-10 play. Also, the last two series meetings have stayed low after the previous five had flown over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE and UNDER
Cal (1-0 SU and ATS) at Washington State (0-1 SU and ATS)
Cal will try to build on last week?s hard-fought win over Michigan State when it opens Pac-10 play against Washington State.
The Bears got caught up in a back-and-forth shootout with the Spartans last Saturday, but they got two touchdowns a little more than a minute apart in the fourth quarter and prevailed 38-31 as a five-point home favorite. Cal, which snapped an 0-7 ATS regular-season losing skid with the win and cover, rolled up 467 total yards and outrushed Michigan State, 226-81.
Washington State struggled in coach Paul Wulff?s debut, producing just 202 total yards in a 39-13 loss to Oklahoma State as a seven-point underdog on a neutral field in Seattle. The Cougars have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games, but they?re just 3-6 SU in their last nine efforts, giving up an average of 42 points per game in the last three.
Cal has won three straight meetings against Washington State, including last year?s narrow 20-17 home victory. However, the Cougars cashed easily as a 15?-point ?dog in that one, and they?re 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes since 1997. Also, the visitor has covered in four straight in this rivalry going back to 2002.
Although they?ve followed up an 0-7 ATS slide with back-to-back spread-covers (including last year?s bowl game), the Bears are just 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 road games (0-4 ATS last four), including 0-4 ATS as a road favorite last year. Additionally, they?re 2-12 ATS in their last 14 Pac-10 games.
Wazzu is on an 8-3 ATS roll as a home ?dog and a 4-1 ATS spurt in Pac-10 play.
The under is 5-2-1 in Washington State?s last seven overall, 5-1 in its last six against winning teams, 8-1-1 in Cal?s last 10 road games and 5-1 in Cal?s last six league affairs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON STATE and UNDER
Cajun-Sports
1 STAR SELECTION
ARIZONA -23 over Toledo
Off an offensive explosion in their opener, the Wildcats look to blow up the Rockets in non-conference collision in Tucson.
This will be Toledo?s first game of the season, a tough road opener in the desert against a Pac-10 foe. Arizona rolled to a 70-0 win over Idaho last weekend, with the 70 points being the most the Wildcats have scored in 87 years. Last season, they finished under .500 for the seventh time in the last eight years, but big things are expected for Arizona this season.
Arizona won the only previous meeting with Toledo back in 1985.
Aaron Opelt is back at quarterback for Toledo after a subpar season. He completed just 58% of his passes and averaged 195 ypg, while tallying 12 TDs and seven INTs last year, and now will be without the team?s leading rusher in the backfield. The Rockets defense was simply horrible last year, giving up more than 39 ppg and were gashed for 215 ypg on the ground.
The Wildcats have certainly not been considered an offensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but that could be about to change. QB Willie Tuitama was very efficient last week, completing 17-of-21 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns. It was a great sign for Wildcats fans, in that Tuitama is working in his second year in Sonny Dykes? offensive scheme. Tuitama picked up the system rather quickly last year, completing 62% of his passes for 3,683 yards and 28 TDs, and even more great things are expected of him this year.
The Arizona defense was obviously dominant in last week's rout, allowing the Vandals only 112 total yards and seven first downs. And they repeatedly set the table for the offense by coming away with four interceptions, which led to four touchdowns.
The Wildcats should be ready to pounce again here at home, as the Rockets have completely fizzled out in non-conference road games vs. opponents not off 2 SU & ATS losses, going 0-9 SU (-28.9 ppg) and 0-9 (-19.2 ppg).
Arizona has not been a solid home favorite, but this is changing with the offense taking flight. Last week was a sign of things to come, as an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM demonstrates. It states:
In Game 2, play ON a home favorite of 19?-43 points off a home SU win scoring 57+ points.
Since at least 1980, these system has been perfect, going 8-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 17 ppg! We also note that teams playing their second game of the season are 4-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) off a SU win and taking on a MAC foe playing its first game of the season.
It looks like a rough start for the Rockets as the ?Cats go wild once again for a SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ARIZONA 44 TOLEDO 17
John Ryan
5* graded play on Florida - Ai Simulator shows an 81% probability that Florida will win this game by 22 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Florida will outgain Miami by a MINIMUM of 2.0 yards per play and also gain a MINIMUM of 450 total yard converting into a MINIMUM of 6.5 yards per play. Note that Florida is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. AiS further shows a 93% probability that Florida will score 28 or more points and a 75% probability that they score 42 or more points. Notet that Florida is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they score 42 to 48 points since 1992. Miami is off a 52-7 blowout win over Charleston Southern. Miami is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Converseley, Florida is off a nice win fo their own defeating Hawaii 56-10 and covering a 36 point spread. Note that HC Myer is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992.
5* graded play on Washington State - Ai Simulator shows a 78% probability that WSU will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. if you had my Thursday night shocking winner on Vanderbilt whereI also added a 1.5* money line amount at +350, this play shapes up in a near identical framework. If available I suggest adding another 1* amount and expect to get near +400 or even a little more for this wager. AiS also reveals an 85% probability that WSU will score 28 or more points. Note that Cal is just 23-52 ATS (-34.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Cal has been a losing investment in this role noting they are 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a MONEY LINE system that has hit 114-58 making 56.5 units for 66% over the past `10 seasons. Play against a road team versus the money line in conference games, returning 5 or less offensive starters facin an opponent returning 8+ defensive starters. WSU has a strong history of playing at full potential in home openers. The Cougars have won seven consecutive Martin Stadium openers, and 14 of their last 16. Since the formation of the Pacific-10 Conference in 1978, the Cougars have played their first Martin Stadium game of a particular season against a league foe nine times. WSU is an even 4-4-1 in those games. Take WSU.
5* graded play on Florida Atlantic - Ai Simulator shows an 82 % probability that FA will win this game by 14 or more points. FA has hardly had any games where they have a solid chance to win bog adn also score a ton of point. HC Schnellenberger will make certain that his team is fully perpraed adn focused for this opportunity. AiS shows an 88% probability that FA will score 18 or more points. Note that FA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Interesting to note too is the betting pubic has been dead wrong most of the time when the moving the line in FA games. The public has a record of 29% ATS for a 9-22 mark ATS 1992 when moving FA lines. This line opened at 14.5 adn is currently offered at 12.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Take Florida Atlantic.
MIGHTY QUINN
Mighty hit with the Blue Jays last night. Today it's the Florida Gators.
The surplus is 480 sirignanos.
HONDO
September 6, 2008
Formerly sizzling Hondo cooled off slightly last night when the Tigers endured a vicious beating in Minne sota, which resulted in the earnings to drop to 715 careys.
Today, the price is right on the money for World Wide Webb over Billingsley - Chad, not Barbara. Ten units on the D'backs.
Erin Rynning
20* over auburn.
Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
20 Dime East Carolina
5 Dime Syracuse
FREE - Mississippi
Jim Feist
Wipeout Winner Fla Gators
Scott Spreitzer
Mismatch GOM Kansas
Glen Mcgrew
Playbook GOM Auburn
