Saturday Service Plays 9/6/08
- Thread starter kozski61
- Start date
BEN BURNS
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals Game
I'm playing on KC. The Indians grabbed yesterday's series opener but the Royals should be able to square things up today. Gil Meche gets the call and he's been solid all season. He pitched very well last time out (2 runs in 7 innings) but didn't get any run support. Still, he's got a strong 3.54 ERA his last three outings and has averaged nearly eight innings per start. He should be some run support here. For starters, Zach Jackson has a 6.17 ERA as a starter. Additionally, he's a southpaw and KC has actually hit very well vs. left-handers. In fact, the Royals enter today's game batting a respectable .274 vs. southpaws while averaging five runs per game. That's pretty good when compared to their 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handers. Not surprisingly, the Royals have been very profitable against left-handers for the year. In fact, they're 28-20 (+15.1) against them on the season. These pitchers faced other at Cleveland a couple of weeks ago. Meche outpitched Jackson but the Indians rallied to win after he left the game. Look for Meche to outpitch Jackson again today, only this time look for his team to hang on to the lead, snapping the Indians' extended road winning streak. *AL GOW
KC ROYALS
*ALERT****HIGH NOON MASSACRE*** (73% YTD!) $40.00
Don't look now but Documented Football Champion Ben Burns is DOING IT AGAIN! Burns simply CRUSHED THE BOOKS last college football season & he's already off to a SIZZLING 8-3 START with his college picks in 2008. Last week's "High Noon Massacre" resulted in a 31-10 ROUT with Northwestern. BANK on another B-L-O-W-O-U-T this week!
Boston College
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals Game
I'm playing on KC. The Indians grabbed yesterday's series opener but the Royals should be able to square things up today. Gil Meche gets the call and he's been solid all season. He pitched very well last time out (2 runs in 7 innings) but didn't get any run support. Still, he's got a strong 3.54 ERA his last three outings and has averaged nearly eight innings per start. He should be some run support here. For starters, Zach Jackson has a 6.17 ERA as a starter. Additionally, he's a southpaw and KC has actually hit very well vs. left-handers. In fact, the Royals enter today's game batting a respectable .274 vs. southpaws while averaging five runs per game. That's pretty good when compared to their 3.7 runs per game vs. right-handers. Not surprisingly, the Royals have been very profitable against left-handers for the year. In fact, they're 28-20 (+15.1) against them on the season. These pitchers faced other at Cleveland a couple of weeks ago. Meche outpitched Jackson but the Indians rallied to win after he left the game. Look for Meche to outpitch Jackson again today, only this time look for his team to hang on to the lead, snapping the Indians' extended road winning streak. *AL GOW
KC ROYALS
*ALERT****HIGH NOON MASSACRE*** (73% YTD!) $40.00
Don't look now but Documented Football Champion Ben Burns is DOING IT AGAIN! Burns simply CRUSHED THE BOOKS last college football season & he's already off to a SIZZLING 8-3 START with his college picks in 2008. Last week's "High Noon Massacre" resulted in a 31-10 ROUT with Northwestern. BANK on another B-L-O-W-O-U-T this week!
Boston College
Northcoast small college
Northcoast small college
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northcoast Small Colleges:
Under Maryland
Over Notre Dame
Over Houst
Temple
Kent St
all 2 *
Northcoast small college
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northcoast Small Colleges:
Under Maryland
Over Notre Dame
Over Houst
Temple
Kent St
all 2 *
From Friday
From Friday
Today, 02:37 AM
BoomerOK95
Registered User Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 5
added
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoomerOK95
Football Jesus bets for saturday;
Boston College -6-120
Washington+10
Ole Miss +8.5 -120
football jesus added bet late friday
oklahoma -20.5 -120
From Friday
Today, 02:37 AM
BoomerOK95
Registered User Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 5
added
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Originally Posted by BoomerOK95
Football Jesus bets for saturday;
Boston College -6-120
Washington+10
Ole Miss +8.5 -120
football jesus added bet late friday
oklahoma -20.5 -120
Dave Cokin
3* OH St -33.5
3* AL -29.5
System - E Mich +21.5
Hat - Wisc -20.5
Hat - Ariz -23
Total - Akron/Syra ov 43
Total - C Mich/GA over 56
Big Gun - New Mex +3
Window - Nevada +10.5
3* OH St -33.5
3* AL -29.5
System - E Mich +21.5
Hat - Wisc -20.5
Hat - Ariz -23
Total - Akron/Syra ov 43
Total - C Mich/GA over 56
Big Gun - New Mex +3
Window - Nevada +10.5
Vegas Sports Experts
The VSE NCAA REVENGE Football Power Play is:
10* Take Wyoming (-3) over Air Force (NCAA Power Play)
3:30 PM EST (Guaranteed NCAA REVENGE game of the Year)
Wyoming
? 7-1 SU as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons
? 4-1 SU when playing in the 1st 2 weeks of the season
? 5-0 SU in home games when the total posted is 42 points or less
? Lost to Air Force 20-12 last season (REVENGE)
5* Take Michigan (-14) over Miami-OH (Bonus Play)
12:00 PM EST
Miami-OH
? 1-7 ATS coming off an OVER total the last 3 years
? 0-3 SU & ATS when the total posted is 42 points or less
? 1-11 SU as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
5* Take West Virginia (-7.5) over East Carolina (Bonus Play)
4:30 PM EST
West Virginia
? 13-0 SU when playing in non-conference games
? 9-0 SU when playing in the 1st month of the season
? 7-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
The VSE NCAA REVENGE Football Power Play is:
10* Take Wyoming (-3) over Air Force (NCAA Power Play)
3:30 PM EST (Guaranteed NCAA REVENGE game of the Year)
Wyoming
? 7-1 SU as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons
? 4-1 SU when playing in the 1st 2 weeks of the season
? 5-0 SU in home games when the total posted is 42 points or less
? Lost to Air Force 20-12 last season (REVENGE)
5* Take Michigan (-14) over Miami-OH (Bonus Play)
12:00 PM EST
Miami-OH
? 1-7 ATS coming off an OVER total the last 3 years
? 0-3 SU & ATS when the total posted is 42 points or less
? 1-11 SU as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
5* Take West Virginia (-7.5) over East Carolina (Bonus Play)
4:30 PM EST
West Virginia
? 13-0 SU when playing in non-conference games
? 9-0 SU when playing in the 1st month of the season
? 7-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
Wayne Root
Millionaire GOY-New Mexico
chairman -Utah
Billionaire Nevada
No-limit-Wash u
inside circle-C mich
Money maker -E carolina
Millionaire GOY-New Mexico
chairman -Utah
Billionaire Nevada
No-limit-Wash u
inside circle-C mich
Money maker -E carolina
PSYCHIC
3 units Western Michigan -6
2 units Miami Ohio +14.5
2 units Wyoming -3
2 units Bowling Green -5
3 units Western Michigan -6
2 units Miami Ohio +14.5
2 units Wyoming -3
2 units Bowling Green -5
Cajun-Sports
CFB Executive Report
2 STAR SELECTION
IOWA -26? over Florida International
The Hawkeyes look to build off their season-opening victory when they host the Golden Panthers Saturday afternoon. Florida International has been one of the worst teams in the nation over the past two seasons, and it does not look like much will change this year. They opened the 2008 campaign with an embarrassing, 40-10 setback to Kansas on the road last week. As for Iowa, they had much more success in their opener, pounding Maine, 46-3.
The Golden Panthers put forth an embarrassing effort in their opener against Kansas, finishing the game with just 139 total yards. They collected just nine first downs and committed three turnovers. Paul McCall was horrendous under center, as the signal caller completed just 10-of-28 passes for 73 yards. McCall also tossed two interceptions and was sacked three times. The ground was just as putrid, as FIU was limited to only 66 yards on 26 carries. Sadly the defense was just as ineffective, as the unit was abused by Kansas.
The Hawkeyes passed with flying colors in their season opener, especially on the offensive side of the football, as the team racked up 457 total yards en route to a 43-point win. Shonne Green and Jewel Hampton ran wild on Maine this past weekend, as the two helped Iowa churn out a whopping 245 yards on the ground. The defensive unit for Iowa made sure Maine did not cross the goal line once, limiting Maine to just 220 total yards. Iowa needed a confidence-building win to open the season, and the Hawkeyes got just that with the victory.
Whatever fight Florida International had, they likely left it in Kansas. After one road loss against non-conference foes, SBC teams have had little left for another road trip as a big non-conference underdog. We document this with a very strong NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, which states:
Play AGAINST an SBC road underdog of more than 18 points off a non-conference road underdog SU loss vs. a non-conference opponent.
Just since 2005, these teams are a perfectly awful 0-13 SU & ATS, losing outright by 41 ppg and failing to cover by more than a dozen ppg on average. FIU qualified as the ?PLAY AGAINST? team in the most recent system game, losing 55-3 at Kansas last season, as a 34-point underdog.
This should be another easy matchup for the Hawkeyes, as the Golden Panthers do not have much to offer on either side of the football, and the home team is eager to get on a roll.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: IOWA 41 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 7
3 STAR SELECTION
AUBURN -17 ? over Southern Mississippi
The ninth-ranked Tigers of the SEC welcome the Golden Eagles of Conference USA to town this weekend, with both teams off big wins to open the season. Southern Miss crushed Louisiana-Lafayette by a final of 51-21, while Auburn shutout Louisiana-Monroe, 34-0.
Junior tailback Damion Fletcher, the star for the Eagles, racked up a career-high 222 yards and two touchdowns as Southern Miss rolled in their opener. In all, the Golden Eagles racked up 633 total yards and moved the ball with ease. They were not dominant on the defensive side of the ball, as the Ragin' Cajuns finished the tilt with 394 total yards.
The spread offense is being installed by Auburn, a program that has always taken great pride in its power running game. Head coach Tommy Tuberville was quick to point out that the Tigers would continue to run the ball with great regularity. That proved to be the case in the opener, as Auburn racked up 321 yards on the ground while averaging 7 ypc. New defensive coordinator Paul Rhodes certainly made an impressive debut for Auburn, as his defense pitched a shutout.
While new Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora certainly had a successful debut, we now look for Auburn to dissect the Eagles gameplan and exploit it. This is a reason we look to AGAINST a team with a new head coach in Game 2 off a SU & ATS win.
With new head coaches, oddsmakers will likely take a ?wait and see? attitude for their first game. If the new coach cruises to an easy win and cover in his first game, the oddsmakers and betting public will likely consider the new coach to not be a negative and line the next game as if the coach has been there for years, removing any line value from that team. Meanwhile, their next opponent will have game tapes to analyze and gameplan accordingly, figuring the team with the new coach will continue to use what worked in Game 1.
Auburn didn?t show much of their spread offense last week, and obviously didn?t need to, but we look for them to ramp it up here and light up the scoreboard. The defense should certainly continue to hold up its end of the bargain. We note that the Tigers are a super 12-0 SU (+28.5 ppg) & 12-0 ATS (+13 ppg) before their 8th game of the season as a favorite of more than 3 points with less than 13 days rest off a shutout SU win.
Southern Miss will likely be content to look ahead to their next game once this one gets out of hand. Before playing Arkansas State, teams at the right price have struggled in recent seasons. Specifically, we look to:
Play AGAINST an underdog of less than 37 points off less than 13 days rest and before playing Arkansas State.
Since 2001, these teams are 0-8 SU & ATS, failing to cover by more than 12 ppg on average, and the Golden Eagles are likely to suffer a similar fate against a Tigers team that should be getting better each week.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 37 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 10
2 STAR SELECTION
WASHINGTON STATE +14 over California
Two Pac-10 teams open their conference schedules in Pullman on Saturday, as the Golden Bears tussle with the Cougars. Cal got their 2008 campaign underway with a 38-31 over Michigan State last weekend, while it didn't go as well for Washington State. The Cougs suffered a 39-13 setback against Oklahoma State in Seattle. The loss spoiled the debut of first-year head coach Paul Wulff.
The Bears were able to rip off 467 total yards in a win over the Spartans, displaying balance between the run and pass. QB Kevin Riley was effective in throwing for 202 yards and two scores on 17-of-24 attempts. Defensively, Cal wasn't nearly as good last weekend, allowing Michigan State to rack up over 400 yards of total offense themselves.
The debut of the Washington State no-huddle, spread offense implemented by Wulff was an unsuccessful one, as the team managed just 196 total yards in the loss to the Cowboys. Making his first career start, quarterback Gary Rogers looked a bit unsure on the field, connecting on 12-of-24 passes with a touchdown and interception.
The one positive was a defense that played better than advertised, despite the final score. Special teams miscues led to 13 OSU points, and a safety led to two more. A short field due to an interception led to another.
More indicative of how the WSU defense played was that OSU had just 367 total yards despite the high point total and was four-for-13 on third-down conversions.
"This offense is so much better than what we showed today." WR Daniel Blackledge
We look for a much more efficient offense this week, as the team tweaks the schemes. One of our handicapping strategies is to:
Play ON a team with a new head coach in Game 2 off a SU & ATS loss.
It?s an old football adage that teams make the most improvement between their first and second games of the season. While this is probably true to some degree for most teams, it is most pronounced for teams with new coaches. Returning coaches have a pretty good idea of what they have to begin with and will be limited in how much improvement can be expected from adjustments after Game 1. With new head coaches, oddsmakers will likely take a ?wait and see? attitude for their first game. If the new coach struggles in his first outing, the oddsmakers and betting public will likely fade him and his team in their next outing, figuring the new coach will not have immediate success. This will provide line value with a team that should make dramatic adjustments and improvement from Game 1.
It wasn?t a huge shock that the Cougars didn?t play well in Seattle, as they rarely do in this annual early-season trek; however, they are 3-0 SU & ATS off a SU or ATS loss in the Emerald City, and they should be much more competitive here back at home against a familiar foe.
Cal has struggled lately in Pac-10 play, going 0-7 ATS in last 7 conference games. We also note that after seeing an explosive offense carry over from a Bowl win to the regular season opener, road favorites have been greatly over-valued. It states:
In Game 2, play AGAINST a road favorite off scoring 36+ points in its last game and a Bowl SU win (not an ATS loss of 4+ points) scoring 36+ points in its last game the previous season.
Since 1992, these teams are 0-10 ATS, failing to cover the spread by a jaw-dropping 21 ppg on average!
The Bears are due for a letdown off a hard-fought game televised by ABC last week, while the Cougars should improve dramatically and we give them a fighter?s chance of pulling off the outright upset.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WASHINGTON STATE 23 CALIFORNIA 21
4 STAR SELECTION
Rice +3 over MEMPHIS
The Owls and Tigers square off for a Conference USA tilt at the Liberty Bowl Saturday evening. Rice opened its season with a convincing 56-27 win over SMU, while Memphis is looking to rebound after a season-opening 41-24 loss at Ole Miss.
As far as season openers go, it doesn't get much better than the performance Rice quarterback Chase Clement put forth against SMU. All Clement did was throw for 258 yards and six touchdowns, with no interceptions. He even led the Owls with 87 yards rushing on 13 carries. The defense deserves a lot of the credit as well. The ?D? created 5 turnovers and held the Mustangs to 11 yards on the ground, while shooting down SMU?s new ?run and shoot? offense.
Memphis appears to still be looking for a starting quarterback. Arkelon Hall finished 15-of-27 for 159 yards and an interception, while Will Hudgens was 8-of-15 for 102 yards, three TDs and one interception. Neither player distinguished himself. The Memphis defense struggled against the run in the Ole Miss game, allowing 216 yards and an average of 6 ypc. The Rebels only completed 11 passes, but they went for 222 yards.
The linesmakers don?t often make mistakes, but it appears to us that the wrong team may be favored here, providing us with great line value.
Following a superb performance in a highlighted, non-Saturday game, teams have had the confidence and momentum to do very well as road underdogs. In fact, Rice qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that reveals:
Play ON a Saturday road underdog off a non-Saturday home conference SU & ATS win (not as a favorite of 15+ points) vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU loss.
Since 1999, these teams are 13-0 ATS. We look for the Owls to add to that number with an outright victory over the Tigers.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RICE 36 MEMPHIS 31
5 STAR SELECTION
NEVADA +10 over Texas Tech
The Red Raiders head out for a rare trip West to take on the Wolfpack in Reno, a team they have never faced. Last week, Texas Tech posted a 49-24 victory over 1-AA Eastern Washington.
As for Nevada, they also took on a 1-AA opponent, posting a resounding 49-13 victory against overmatched Grambling State.
Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell, who finished 2007 as the top offensive producer in college football with 431.9 ypg of total offense, was back at it last Saturday as he converted 43-of-58 pass attempts for a ridiculous 536 yards.
Although the Red Raiders probably didn't think the Eagles would give them much of a fight, they did. Eastern Washington didn't take the meeting lying down, instead the visitors chose to fight fire with fire and put the ball in the air early and often, to no avail. Tech was also penalized an incredible 18 times, for a loss of 169 yards in field position.
Just as Harrell did for the Red Raiders in their opener, Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick also picked up where he left off a season ago when he was named the Western Athletic Conference Freshman of the Year. Kaepernick tallied a pair of rushing touchdowns within the first 12 minutes of the contest last weekend and finished up with three running touchdowns overall.
As great as the running game was for the Nevada offense, the defense was just as powerful when stopping the Grambling State ball carriers. Nevada dominated in the trenches, allowing Grambling to generate a mere five net yards on 40 rushing attempts.
While there may be some defense played in this game, we still expect a wild shootout. Tech is likely to struggle, especially early in the contest, in this unfamiliar atmosphere. They are 0-7 ATS (-17.7 ppg) as a road favorite of 24 points or less off scoring 43+ points, 0-7 ATS (-16.6) as a road favorite of more than 2 points out of Texas, and 0-4 ATS at high altitude locations since 2002. Meanwhile, Nevada is 8-0 ATS (+7.4 ppg) at home in non-conference games since 2003 when not playing their first game of the season against an opponent that had already played its first game of the season.
With both teams coming off non-lined games, the non-conference favorites at the right price have been the wrong side, as shown by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a non-conference favorite of 3-15 points off a non-lined home contest vs. an opponent off a non-lined Saturday SU win in its last game.
Going all the way back to 1982, these teams are 0-9 ATS, failing to cover the number by more than 17 ppg on average.
We also note that after a relatively poor defensive effort against a 1-AA opponent, favorites have come up short at the price described. The Red Raiders also qualify for this system that advises:
In Games 2-8, play AGAINST a favorite of 4-17 points with less than 13 days rest off a non-lined SU win allowing 18+ points. Since 1996, these teams are 0-12 ATS.
Finally, a season-opening game against a 1-AA opponent has been the perfect tune-up for home underdogs at the price described in this NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM:
In Game 2, play ON a home underdog of less than 11 points off a non-lined game vs. an opponent off a SU win.
Since 1991, these schools are 10-0 ATS, covering the spread by 16 points. The WolfPack should be in this one all the way and stand a very good chance of pulling off one of the bigger surprises of the weekend.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS TECH 37 NEVADA 35
CFB Executive Report
2 STAR SELECTION
IOWA -26? over Florida International
The Hawkeyes look to build off their season-opening victory when they host the Golden Panthers Saturday afternoon. Florida International has been one of the worst teams in the nation over the past two seasons, and it does not look like much will change this year. They opened the 2008 campaign with an embarrassing, 40-10 setback to Kansas on the road last week. As for Iowa, they had much more success in their opener, pounding Maine, 46-3.
The Golden Panthers put forth an embarrassing effort in their opener against Kansas, finishing the game with just 139 total yards. They collected just nine first downs and committed three turnovers. Paul McCall was horrendous under center, as the signal caller completed just 10-of-28 passes for 73 yards. McCall also tossed two interceptions and was sacked three times. The ground was just as putrid, as FIU was limited to only 66 yards on 26 carries. Sadly the defense was just as ineffective, as the unit was abused by Kansas.
The Hawkeyes passed with flying colors in their season opener, especially on the offensive side of the football, as the team racked up 457 total yards en route to a 43-point win. Shonne Green and Jewel Hampton ran wild on Maine this past weekend, as the two helped Iowa churn out a whopping 245 yards on the ground. The defensive unit for Iowa made sure Maine did not cross the goal line once, limiting Maine to just 220 total yards. Iowa needed a confidence-building win to open the season, and the Hawkeyes got just that with the victory.
Whatever fight Florida International had, they likely left it in Kansas. After one road loss against non-conference foes, SBC teams have had little left for another road trip as a big non-conference underdog. We document this with a very strong NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM, which states:
Play AGAINST an SBC road underdog of more than 18 points off a non-conference road underdog SU loss vs. a non-conference opponent.
Just since 2005, these teams are a perfectly awful 0-13 SU & ATS, losing outright by 41 ppg and failing to cover by more than a dozen ppg on average. FIU qualified as the ?PLAY AGAINST? team in the most recent system game, losing 55-3 at Kansas last season, as a 34-point underdog.
This should be another easy matchup for the Hawkeyes, as the Golden Panthers do not have much to offer on either side of the football, and the home team is eager to get on a roll.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: IOWA 41 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 7
3 STAR SELECTION
AUBURN -17 ? over Southern Mississippi
The ninth-ranked Tigers of the SEC welcome the Golden Eagles of Conference USA to town this weekend, with both teams off big wins to open the season. Southern Miss crushed Louisiana-Lafayette by a final of 51-21, while Auburn shutout Louisiana-Monroe, 34-0.
Junior tailback Damion Fletcher, the star for the Eagles, racked up a career-high 222 yards and two touchdowns as Southern Miss rolled in their opener. In all, the Golden Eagles racked up 633 total yards and moved the ball with ease. They were not dominant on the defensive side of the ball, as the Ragin' Cajuns finished the tilt with 394 total yards.
The spread offense is being installed by Auburn, a program that has always taken great pride in its power running game. Head coach Tommy Tuberville was quick to point out that the Tigers would continue to run the ball with great regularity. That proved to be the case in the opener, as Auburn racked up 321 yards on the ground while averaging 7 ypc. New defensive coordinator Paul Rhodes certainly made an impressive debut for Auburn, as his defense pitched a shutout.
While new Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora certainly had a successful debut, we now look for Auburn to dissect the Eagles gameplan and exploit it. This is a reason we look to AGAINST a team with a new head coach in Game 2 off a SU & ATS win.
With new head coaches, oddsmakers will likely take a ?wait and see? attitude for their first game. If the new coach cruises to an easy win and cover in his first game, the oddsmakers and betting public will likely consider the new coach to not be a negative and line the next game as if the coach has been there for years, removing any line value from that team. Meanwhile, their next opponent will have game tapes to analyze and gameplan accordingly, figuring the team with the new coach will continue to use what worked in Game 1.
Auburn didn?t show much of their spread offense last week, and obviously didn?t need to, but we look for them to ramp it up here and light up the scoreboard. The defense should certainly continue to hold up its end of the bargain. We note that the Tigers are a super 12-0 SU (+28.5 ppg) & 12-0 ATS (+13 ppg) before their 8th game of the season as a favorite of more than 3 points with less than 13 days rest off a shutout SU win.
Southern Miss will likely be content to look ahead to their next game once this one gets out of hand. Before playing Arkansas State, teams at the right price have struggled in recent seasons. Specifically, we look to:
Play AGAINST an underdog of less than 37 points off less than 13 days rest and before playing Arkansas State.
Since 2001, these teams are 0-8 SU & ATS, failing to cover by more than 12 ppg on average, and the Golden Eagles are likely to suffer a similar fate against a Tigers team that should be getting better each week.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 37 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 10
2 STAR SELECTION
WASHINGTON STATE +14 over California
Two Pac-10 teams open their conference schedules in Pullman on Saturday, as the Golden Bears tussle with the Cougars. Cal got their 2008 campaign underway with a 38-31 over Michigan State last weekend, while it didn't go as well for Washington State. The Cougs suffered a 39-13 setback against Oklahoma State in Seattle. The loss spoiled the debut of first-year head coach Paul Wulff.
The Bears were able to rip off 467 total yards in a win over the Spartans, displaying balance between the run and pass. QB Kevin Riley was effective in throwing for 202 yards and two scores on 17-of-24 attempts. Defensively, Cal wasn't nearly as good last weekend, allowing Michigan State to rack up over 400 yards of total offense themselves.
The debut of the Washington State no-huddle, spread offense implemented by Wulff was an unsuccessful one, as the team managed just 196 total yards in the loss to the Cowboys. Making his first career start, quarterback Gary Rogers looked a bit unsure on the field, connecting on 12-of-24 passes with a touchdown and interception.
The one positive was a defense that played better than advertised, despite the final score. Special teams miscues led to 13 OSU points, and a safety led to two more. A short field due to an interception led to another.
More indicative of how the WSU defense played was that OSU had just 367 total yards despite the high point total and was four-for-13 on third-down conversions.
"This offense is so much better than what we showed today." WR Daniel Blackledge
We look for a much more efficient offense this week, as the team tweaks the schemes. One of our handicapping strategies is to:
Play ON a team with a new head coach in Game 2 off a SU & ATS loss.
It?s an old football adage that teams make the most improvement between their first and second games of the season. While this is probably true to some degree for most teams, it is most pronounced for teams with new coaches. Returning coaches have a pretty good idea of what they have to begin with and will be limited in how much improvement can be expected from adjustments after Game 1. With new head coaches, oddsmakers will likely take a ?wait and see? attitude for their first game. If the new coach struggles in his first outing, the oddsmakers and betting public will likely fade him and his team in their next outing, figuring the new coach will not have immediate success. This will provide line value with a team that should make dramatic adjustments and improvement from Game 1.
It wasn?t a huge shock that the Cougars didn?t play well in Seattle, as they rarely do in this annual early-season trek; however, they are 3-0 SU & ATS off a SU or ATS loss in the Emerald City, and they should be much more competitive here back at home against a familiar foe.
Cal has struggled lately in Pac-10 play, going 0-7 ATS in last 7 conference games. We also note that after seeing an explosive offense carry over from a Bowl win to the regular season opener, road favorites have been greatly over-valued. It states:
In Game 2, play AGAINST a road favorite off scoring 36+ points in its last game and a Bowl SU win (not an ATS loss of 4+ points) scoring 36+ points in its last game the previous season.
Since 1992, these teams are 0-10 ATS, failing to cover the spread by a jaw-dropping 21 ppg on average!
The Bears are due for a letdown off a hard-fought game televised by ABC last week, while the Cougars should improve dramatically and we give them a fighter?s chance of pulling off the outright upset.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WASHINGTON STATE 23 CALIFORNIA 21
4 STAR SELECTION
Rice +3 over MEMPHIS
The Owls and Tigers square off for a Conference USA tilt at the Liberty Bowl Saturday evening. Rice opened its season with a convincing 56-27 win over SMU, while Memphis is looking to rebound after a season-opening 41-24 loss at Ole Miss.
As far as season openers go, it doesn't get much better than the performance Rice quarterback Chase Clement put forth against SMU. All Clement did was throw for 258 yards and six touchdowns, with no interceptions. He even led the Owls with 87 yards rushing on 13 carries. The defense deserves a lot of the credit as well. The ?D? created 5 turnovers and held the Mustangs to 11 yards on the ground, while shooting down SMU?s new ?run and shoot? offense.
Memphis appears to still be looking for a starting quarterback. Arkelon Hall finished 15-of-27 for 159 yards and an interception, while Will Hudgens was 8-of-15 for 102 yards, three TDs and one interception. Neither player distinguished himself. The Memphis defense struggled against the run in the Ole Miss game, allowing 216 yards and an average of 6 ypc. The Rebels only completed 11 passes, but they went for 222 yards.
The linesmakers don?t often make mistakes, but it appears to us that the wrong team may be favored here, providing us with great line value.
Following a superb performance in a highlighted, non-Saturday game, teams have had the confidence and momentum to do very well as road underdogs. In fact, Rice qualifies for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that reveals:
Play ON a Saturday road underdog off a non-Saturday home conference SU & ATS win (not as a favorite of 15+ points) vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU loss.
Since 1999, these teams are 13-0 ATS. We look for the Owls to add to that number with an outright victory over the Tigers.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RICE 36 MEMPHIS 31
5 STAR SELECTION
NEVADA +10 over Texas Tech
The Red Raiders head out for a rare trip West to take on the Wolfpack in Reno, a team they have never faced. Last week, Texas Tech posted a 49-24 victory over 1-AA Eastern Washington.
As for Nevada, they also took on a 1-AA opponent, posting a resounding 49-13 victory against overmatched Grambling State.
Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell, who finished 2007 as the top offensive producer in college football with 431.9 ypg of total offense, was back at it last Saturday as he converted 43-of-58 pass attempts for a ridiculous 536 yards.
Although the Red Raiders probably didn't think the Eagles would give them much of a fight, they did. Eastern Washington didn't take the meeting lying down, instead the visitors chose to fight fire with fire and put the ball in the air early and often, to no avail. Tech was also penalized an incredible 18 times, for a loss of 169 yards in field position.
Just as Harrell did for the Red Raiders in their opener, Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick also picked up where he left off a season ago when he was named the Western Athletic Conference Freshman of the Year. Kaepernick tallied a pair of rushing touchdowns within the first 12 minutes of the contest last weekend and finished up with three running touchdowns overall.
As great as the running game was for the Nevada offense, the defense was just as powerful when stopping the Grambling State ball carriers. Nevada dominated in the trenches, allowing Grambling to generate a mere five net yards on 40 rushing attempts.
While there may be some defense played in this game, we still expect a wild shootout. Tech is likely to struggle, especially early in the contest, in this unfamiliar atmosphere. They are 0-7 ATS (-17.7 ppg) as a road favorite of 24 points or less off scoring 43+ points, 0-7 ATS (-16.6) as a road favorite of more than 2 points out of Texas, and 0-4 ATS at high altitude locations since 2002. Meanwhile, Nevada is 8-0 ATS (+7.4 ppg) at home in non-conference games since 2003 when not playing their first game of the season against an opponent that had already played its first game of the season.
With both teams coming off non-lined games, the non-conference favorites at the right price have been the wrong side, as shown by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a non-conference favorite of 3-15 points off a non-lined home contest vs. an opponent off a non-lined Saturday SU win in its last game.
Going all the way back to 1982, these teams are 0-9 ATS, failing to cover the number by more than 17 ppg on average.
We also note that after a relatively poor defensive effort against a 1-AA opponent, favorites have come up short at the price described. The Red Raiders also qualify for this system that advises:
In Games 2-8, play AGAINST a favorite of 4-17 points with less than 13 days rest off a non-lined SU win allowing 18+ points. Since 1996, these teams are 0-12 ATS.
Finally, a season-opening game against a 1-AA opponent has been the perfect tune-up for home underdogs at the price described in this NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM:
In Game 2, play ON a home underdog of less than 11 points off a non-lined game vs. an opponent off a SU win.
Since 1991, these schools are 10-0 ATS, covering the spread by 16 points. The WolfPack should be in this one all the way and stand a very good chance of pulling off one of the bigger surprises of the weekend.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS TECH 37 NEVADA 35
EZWINNERS
NCAA FOOTBALL
5 STAR: (364) TEMPLE (+7) over Connecticut
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (317) MINNESOTA (+5) over Bowling Green
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (307) AKRON (+4.5) over Syracuse
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (315) WEST VIRGINIA (-7.5) over East Carolina
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (348) NEW MEXICO (+2.5) over Texas A&M
(Risking $220 to win $200)
MLB
2 STAR: (902) NY METS (-$128) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $256 to win $200)
2 STAR: (904) LA DODGERS (-$115) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $230 to win $200)
NCAA FOOTBALL
5 STAR: (364) TEMPLE (+7) over Connecticut
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (317) MINNESOTA (+5) over Bowling Green
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (307) AKRON (+4.5) over Syracuse
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (315) WEST VIRGINIA (-7.5) over East Carolina
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (348) NEW MEXICO (+2.5) over Texas A&M
(Risking $220 to win $200)
MLB
2 STAR: (902) NY METS (-$128) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $256 to win $200)
2 STAR: (904) LA DODGERS (-$115) over Arizona
(Action)
(Risking $230 to win $200)