Ben Burns
Underdog GOY
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+14 or better)
Game: Florida Atlantic vs. Troy Game Time: 12/1/2007 2:00:00 PM Prediction: Florida Atlantic Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA ATLANTIC. The Trojans are playing well, playing on their home field and have dominated conference play. However, other than the part about home field, the exact same thing can be said about the Owls. The Owls hammered winless Florida International by a score of 55-23, putting themselves in position to play Troy with the conference title on the line. While Troy is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in conference play, the Owls are right there with them at 5-1 (4-2 ATS). Their four non-conference losses came vs. Florida, South Florida, Oklahoma State and Kentucky and there's no shame in that! In fact, if they didn't have such a tough non-conference slate, the Owls would likely already be sitting pretty for a bowl. However, as it is, their season will end if they lose this afternoon. If they can win, however, they'll advance to play Memphis at the New Orleans Bowl. The Trojans certainly have a high-powered attack. However, Florida Atlantic is right there with them. In fact, the Owls have scored more points recently as they've averaged 36.3 points their past three games compared to Troy's 33.3. Owls quarterback Rusty Smith leads the sun Belt with 3,061 yards passing to go along with 25 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. Note that Smith threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns against Troy last season. The Owls have put up huge numbers in conference play (35.8 ppg) but they've also been able to put up points against the top teams in the country as they scored an average of 20 against Florida (20), South Florida (23) and Kentucky (17). It should be noted that the Owls are also very well coached as Howard Schnellenberger is arguably the top coach in the conference. As Troy coach Larry Blakeney told the Dothan Eagle: "Coach (Howard) Schnellenberger has probably forgot more football than most of us know,." Blakeney went on to say of the Owls: "They're good across the board. We'll have to play very well to have a chance to win." Last year's game was decided by just seven points (24-17 Troy) and the Owls were driving for the tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Owls, who brought back a whopping 18 starters (Troy had 13) from that team, are much improved this season. The Trojans have lost their last two home finales, including a 33-26 loss to Arkansas State as eight point favorites last season. I expect them to have their hands full again this year against an explosive, well-coached and highly-motivated Owls squad. *Underdog GOY
December Total of the Month
UNDER USC/UCLA (44 or better)
Game: UCLA vs. USC Game Time: 12/1/2007 4:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on USC and UCLA to finish UNDER the number. I successfully played on the Trojans to finish "over" the total in their most recent game, a 44-24 win with an over/under line of 51. However, that was on the road vs. the Sun Devils. That's a whole different deal from facing UCLA at home, yet the over/under line is less than a touchdown different. The Sun Devils came into that game averaging 38.5 points (448 total yards) per game at home and the Trojans and Sun Devils nearly always play high-scoring games against each other. Conversely, the Trojans and Bruins combined for only 22 points last season (13-9 UCLA!) and the Bruins come into today's game averaging 25 points (381 total yards) on the road. That's almost two touchdowns less than the Sun Devils were managing at home. The Bruins also come in playing excellent defense. Two games ago, they also held the Sun Devils to 24 points and in their most recent game, they completely shutout (16-0 final) the Ducks. That brought the UNDER to 4-1 their past five games. Despite giving up 24 points last week, the Trojans' defense played really well, recording six sacks and limiting the Sun Devils to 16 rushing yards on 35 attempts. USC is sixth in the nation in scoring defense (16.7 points per game), and one of Arizona State's touchdowns came on a kickoff return and the other came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach. Additionally, the Trojans' defense has been even more dominant at home, allowing a mere 12.8 points per game. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a perfect 5-0 in their games here. The UNDER is also a highly profitable 9-1 in the Trojans' 10 games played on a Saturday this season and 18-7 their last 25 conference games overall. Look for another defensive affair that stays below the generous number. *December Total of Month
3 game executive report with shocker GOM
SAN DIEGO ST (+14 or better)
Game: BYU vs. San Diego St. Game Time: 12/1/2007 6:30:00 PM Prediction: San Diego St. Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO STATE. The Cougars are looking to become the first school in conference history to finish undefeated in the league for two straight seasons. While that should provide them with some motivation, I don't think it will be enough to offset the natural letdown and look-ahead that comes with having clinched the conference title last week and looking ahead to a probable birth in the Las Vegas Bowl. Granted, there is still a way that the Cougars could earn a BCS spot. However, they would need a ton of dominoes to fall into place (help from other teams), so they know that's not likely. Despite their strong conference record, the Cougars are still just 2-3 ATS on the road for the season, losing by double-digits at UCLA and at Tulsa. The Aztecs aren't in that class. However, they've covered the spread in three straight games here (11-5 ATS last 16) and they'll be highly motivated to close out their season with a big win in front of the home fans. As safety Corey Boudreaux had to say: "We still have a chance to leave our mark at home against BYU. We're not going to give up fighting right now. We've been fighting for 11 weeks and there is no reason to give up right now." The Aztecs, who won 31-10 when they hosted the Cougars in 2005, are a highly profitable 10-2 ATS the last 12 times that they were coming off a conference loss. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again amd don't be "shocked" if they score the outright win. *Shocker of the Month
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (pick'em or better)
Game: North Texas vs. Golden Panthers Game Time: 12/1/2007 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Golden Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. This game means a lot to the Golden Panthers as they desperately want to avoid finishing the season with a winless record for the second straight year. Despite a loss to Troy last season, note that the Golden Panthers remain a solid 4-1 their last five home finales, outscoring opponents by 178-118 margin. The Mean Green should be the perfect opponent for the Golden Panthers to earn their first win against as they are 0-6 on the road. While Florida International has been outscored by a 33-18 margin at home, North Texas has been destroyed by a 51-18 margin on the road. The Mean Green are now a terrible 1-15 their last 16 road games. They're also 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times they were listed as favorites, with all six losses also coming in "SU" fashion. The Owls took the Mean Green to seven overtimes last year before losing by a field goal. Despite their winless record, this is an improved team while I don't feel the same can necessarily be said of North Texas. Yes, the Golden Panthers are without their regular QB. However, he had 18 interceptions and I don't expect his loss will prove to be a negative. Playing on their home field, look for the Golden Panthers to prove to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to them snapping the nation's longest losing streak.
ARIZONA (+6 or better)
Game: Arizona Wildcats vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 12/1/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Wildcats Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. I've had success this season by playing against teams which were coming off their first loss, provided that loss damaged their dreams of playing for a national title. That isn't exactly the case here. It's close though and the logic remains the same. The Sun Devils are coming off their second loss of the season, getting crushed 44-24 by USC. That loss likely didn't cost them a spot in the national title game. However, it did cost the Sun Devils the Pac-10 title and the subsequent BCS bowl bid that goes with it. Although they'll be facing their instate rivals, coming off that devastating loss, I won't be surprised to see the Sun Devils struggle this week. Quotes from the players and coaches can often reveal a lot about a team's mind set and I feel that's the case here. QB Rudy Carpenter, who was sacked six times, said: "The most frustrating thing for us is that a lot of these guys, our whole dream is to go play in the Rose Bowl. We had a chance for that. That is the most frustrating thing, losing at home....It is frustrating all the way around. We got beat." Coach Erickson had the following to say: "We didn't play good. It's sad. We just did not play like I thought we would in a game like this. No excuses. We just didn't do what we needed to do." Note that the Sun Devils were already dealing with a few injuries and that several players were banged-up in the USC loss. While the Sun Devils come into this game "hanging their heads," and off their biggest loss in years, the rested Wildcats come in on a major roll. The Wildcats had last week off to heal some nagging bumps and bruises and to give them some extra preparation time. Prior to that, they come off a major upset of Oregon and victories over UCLA and Washington before that. During that time, the Wildcats have went from looking ahead to next year to possibly needing a scouting report on a bowl opponent. Additionally, coach Stoops' job, which was on shaky ground, is now secure. The Wildcats are playing with "revenge" from a 28-14 loss at Tuscon last season. They also lost their last visit here to Tempe. However, that loss came by only three points and the Wildcats were listed as 10 point underdogs. Including the "cover" in 2005, the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they traveled here. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS the last six times they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 point range. During the same stretch, the Sun Devils have gone an ugly 1-6 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 points. I feel the situation strongly favors the Wildcats and I expect them to earn (at least) another cover.
December GOM
OREGON (-3 or better)
Game: Oregon St. vs. Oregon Game Time: 12/1/2007 4:30:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks had been cruising right along, crushing the majority of the teams they faced. As a result of all the blowout victories, I felt their lines had begun to become inflated and I played against the Ducks when they traveled to Arizona. That was the game the Dixon got hurt and things haven't been remotely the same ever since. The Ducks lost the game at Arizona (34-24 as -10.5 point favorites) and followed it up by losing 16-0 at UCLA last week. In my opinion, those two games have now caused them to go from being over-valued to being under-valued. The popular opinion is that the team just can't win without Dennis Dixon. Sure, it would certainly be nice if backup Brady Leaf (currently listed as doubtful) could play. However, even if he doesn't, I expect the Ducks to have success on offense. As excellent a year as Dixon (was a heisman trophy front-runner) was enjoying, this offensive unit was about more than just a single player. The rest of the offense will be anxious to prove that point and I expect them to put up points vs. a Beavers' defense which has allowed 29.4 points per game on the road this season. Cody Kempt who will get the start if Leaf can't go, now has some real experience and that should pay enormous dividends. Kempt had this to say: "I definitely feel much more prepared. Honestly, it was a great experience for me. I feel like I have so much under my belt now. I was able to get out the jitters and the nervousness, and I know what to expect going into this week against Oregon State." Keep in mind that both Oregon's recent losses were on the road and that the team remains an excellent 5-1 SU/ATS at home, knocking off the likes of USC, Fresno State and Arizona State. Perhaps more importantly, note that the home team has won 10 straight games in this "Civil War" rivalry with the Ducks earning a convincing 56-14 win in the most recent game here. Despite the poor showing by the offense, the Ducks' defense played very well in the loss to UCLA. Of the four scoring drives (3 fgs, 1 td) that the Bruins had, including two that resulted in field goals, none spanned more than 31 yards, and three of the drives covered 15 or fewer yards. UCLA finished the game with just 10 first downs and 220 yards. With the line currently listed at pick'em, its worth mentioning that the Ducks are an exceptional 32-13 ATS (31-14 SU) the past 35 times that they played a game in which the line ranged from +3 to -3. Look for another strong effort from the defense, combined with a MUCH better showing from the offense, as the Ducks bounce back with a big win, continuing their homefield dominance in this series. *December Blowout GOM
Underdog GOY
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+14 or better)
Game: Florida Atlantic vs. Troy Game Time: 12/1/2007 2:00:00 PM Prediction: Florida Atlantic Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA ATLANTIC. The Trojans are playing well, playing on their home field and have dominated conference play. However, other than the part about home field, the exact same thing can be said about the Owls. The Owls hammered winless Florida International by a score of 55-23, putting themselves in position to play Troy with the conference title on the line. While Troy is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in conference play, the Owls are right there with them at 5-1 (4-2 ATS). Their four non-conference losses came vs. Florida, South Florida, Oklahoma State and Kentucky and there's no shame in that! In fact, if they didn't have such a tough non-conference slate, the Owls would likely already be sitting pretty for a bowl. However, as it is, their season will end if they lose this afternoon. If they can win, however, they'll advance to play Memphis at the New Orleans Bowl. The Trojans certainly have a high-powered attack. However, Florida Atlantic is right there with them. In fact, the Owls have scored more points recently as they've averaged 36.3 points their past three games compared to Troy's 33.3. Owls quarterback Rusty Smith leads the sun Belt with 3,061 yards passing to go along with 25 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. Note that Smith threw for 312 yards and two touchdowns against Troy last season. The Owls have put up huge numbers in conference play (35.8 ppg) but they've also been able to put up points against the top teams in the country as they scored an average of 20 against Florida (20), South Florida (23) and Kentucky (17). It should be noted that the Owls are also very well coached as Howard Schnellenberger is arguably the top coach in the conference. As Troy coach Larry Blakeney told the Dothan Eagle: "Coach (Howard) Schnellenberger has probably forgot more football than most of us know,." Blakeney went on to say of the Owls: "They're good across the board. We'll have to play very well to have a chance to win." Last year's game was decided by just seven points (24-17 Troy) and the Owls were driving for the tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Owls, who brought back a whopping 18 starters (Troy had 13) from that team, are much improved this season. The Trojans have lost their last two home finales, including a 33-26 loss to Arkansas State as eight point favorites last season. I expect them to have their hands full again this year against an explosive, well-coached and highly-motivated Owls squad. *Underdog GOY
December Total of the Month
UNDER USC/UCLA (44 or better)
Game: UCLA vs. USC Game Time: 12/1/2007 4:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on USC and UCLA to finish UNDER the number. I successfully played on the Trojans to finish "over" the total in their most recent game, a 44-24 win with an over/under line of 51. However, that was on the road vs. the Sun Devils. That's a whole different deal from facing UCLA at home, yet the over/under line is less than a touchdown different. The Sun Devils came into that game averaging 38.5 points (448 total yards) per game at home and the Trojans and Sun Devils nearly always play high-scoring games against each other. Conversely, the Trojans and Bruins combined for only 22 points last season (13-9 UCLA!) and the Bruins come into today's game averaging 25 points (381 total yards) on the road. That's almost two touchdowns less than the Sun Devils were managing at home. The Bruins also come in playing excellent defense. Two games ago, they also held the Sun Devils to 24 points and in their most recent game, they completely shutout (16-0 final) the Ducks. That brought the UNDER to 4-1 their past five games. Despite giving up 24 points last week, the Trojans' defense played really well, recording six sacks and limiting the Sun Devils to 16 rushing yards on 35 attempts. USC is sixth in the nation in scoring defense (16.7 points per game), and one of Arizona State's touchdowns came on a kickoff return and the other came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach. Additionally, the Trojans' defense has been even more dominant at home, allowing a mere 12.8 points per game. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a perfect 5-0 in their games here. The UNDER is also a highly profitable 9-1 in the Trojans' 10 games played on a Saturday this season and 18-7 their last 25 conference games overall. Look for another defensive affair that stays below the generous number. *December Total of Month
3 game executive report with shocker GOM
SAN DIEGO ST (+14 or better)
Game: BYU vs. San Diego St. Game Time: 12/1/2007 6:30:00 PM Prediction: San Diego St. Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO STATE. The Cougars are looking to become the first school in conference history to finish undefeated in the league for two straight seasons. While that should provide them with some motivation, I don't think it will be enough to offset the natural letdown and look-ahead that comes with having clinched the conference title last week and looking ahead to a probable birth in the Las Vegas Bowl. Granted, there is still a way that the Cougars could earn a BCS spot. However, they would need a ton of dominoes to fall into place (help from other teams), so they know that's not likely. Despite their strong conference record, the Cougars are still just 2-3 ATS on the road for the season, losing by double-digits at UCLA and at Tulsa. The Aztecs aren't in that class. However, they've covered the spread in three straight games here (11-5 ATS last 16) and they'll be highly motivated to close out their season with a big win in front of the home fans. As safety Corey Boudreaux had to say: "We still have a chance to leave our mark at home against BYU. We're not going to give up fighting right now. We've been fighting for 11 weeks and there is no reason to give up right now." The Aztecs, who won 31-10 when they hosted the Cougars in 2005, are a highly profitable 10-2 ATS the last 12 times that they were coming off a conference loss. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again amd don't be "shocked" if they score the outright win. *Shocker of the Month
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (pick'em or better)
Game: North Texas vs. Golden Panthers Game Time: 12/1/2007 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Golden Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. This game means a lot to the Golden Panthers as they desperately want to avoid finishing the season with a winless record for the second straight year. Despite a loss to Troy last season, note that the Golden Panthers remain a solid 4-1 their last five home finales, outscoring opponents by 178-118 margin. The Mean Green should be the perfect opponent for the Golden Panthers to earn their first win against as they are 0-6 on the road. While Florida International has been outscored by a 33-18 margin at home, North Texas has been destroyed by a 51-18 margin on the road. The Mean Green are now a terrible 1-15 their last 16 road games. They're also 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven times they were listed as favorites, with all six losses also coming in "SU" fashion. The Owls took the Mean Green to seven overtimes last year before losing by a field goal. Despite their winless record, this is an improved team while I don't feel the same can necessarily be said of North Texas. Yes, the Golden Panthers are without their regular QB. However, he had 18 interceptions and I don't expect his loss will prove to be a negative. Playing on their home field, look for the Golden Panthers to prove to be the hungrier team and for that to lead to them snapping the nation's longest losing streak.
ARIZONA (+6 or better)
Game: Arizona Wildcats vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 12/1/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Wildcats Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. I've had success this season by playing against teams which were coming off their first loss, provided that loss damaged their dreams of playing for a national title. That isn't exactly the case here. It's close though and the logic remains the same. The Sun Devils are coming off their second loss of the season, getting crushed 44-24 by USC. That loss likely didn't cost them a spot in the national title game. However, it did cost the Sun Devils the Pac-10 title and the subsequent BCS bowl bid that goes with it. Although they'll be facing their instate rivals, coming off that devastating loss, I won't be surprised to see the Sun Devils struggle this week. Quotes from the players and coaches can often reveal a lot about a team's mind set and I feel that's the case here. QB Rudy Carpenter, who was sacked six times, said: "The most frustrating thing for us is that a lot of these guys, our whole dream is to go play in the Rose Bowl. We had a chance for that. That is the most frustrating thing, losing at home....It is frustrating all the way around. We got beat." Coach Erickson had the following to say: "We didn't play good. It's sad. We just did not play like I thought we would in a game like this. No excuses. We just didn't do what we needed to do." Note that the Sun Devils were already dealing with a few injuries and that several players were banged-up in the USC loss. While the Sun Devils come into this game "hanging their heads," and off their biggest loss in years, the rested Wildcats come in on a major roll. The Wildcats had last week off to heal some nagging bumps and bruises and to give them some extra preparation time. Prior to that, they come off a major upset of Oregon and victories over UCLA and Washington before that. During that time, the Wildcats have went from looking ahead to next year to possibly needing a scouting report on a bowl opponent. Additionally, coach Stoops' job, which was on shaky ground, is now secure. The Wildcats are playing with "revenge" from a 28-14 loss at Tuscon last season. They also lost their last visit here to Tempe. However, that loss came by only three points and the Wildcats were listed as 10 point underdogs. Including the "cover" in 2005, the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they traveled here. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS the last six times they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 point range. During the same stretch, the Sun Devils have gone an ugly 1-6 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 points. I feel the situation strongly favors the Wildcats and I expect them to earn (at least) another cover.
December GOM
OREGON (-3 or better)
Game: Oregon St. vs. Oregon Game Time: 12/1/2007 4:30:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm playing on OREGON. The Ducks had been cruising right along, crushing the majority of the teams they faced. As a result of all the blowout victories, I felt their lines had begun to become inflated and I played against the Ducks when they traveled to Arizona. That was the game the Dixon got hurt and things haven't been remotely the same ever since. The Ducks lost the game at Arizona (34-24 as -10.5 point favorites) and followed it up by losing 16-0 at UCLA last week. In my opinion, those two games have now caused them to go from being over-valued to being under-valued. The popular opinion is that the team just can't win without Dennis Dixon. Sure, it would certainly be nice if backup Brady Leaf (currently listed as doubtful) could play. However, even if he doesn't, I expect the Ducks to have success on offense. As excellent a year as Dixon (was a heisman trophy front-runner) was enjoying, this offensive unit was about more than just a single player. The rest of the offense will be anxious to prove that point and I expect them to put up points vs. a Beavers' defense which has allowed 29.4 points per game on the road this season. Cody Kempt who will get the start if Leaf can't go, now has some real experience and that should pay enormous dividends. Kempt had this to say: "I definitely feel much more prepared. Honestly, it was a great experience for me. I feel like I have so much under my belt now. I was able to get out the jitters and the nervousness, and I know what to expect going into this week against Oregon State." Keep in mind that both Oregon's recent losses were on the road and that the team remains an excellent 5-1 SU/ATS at home, knocking off the likes of USC, Fresno State and Arizona State. Perhaps more importantly, note that the home team has won 10 straight games in this "Civil War" rivalry with the Ducks earning a convincing 56-14 win in the most recent game here. Despite the poor showing by the offense, the Ducks' defense played very well in the loss to UCLA. Of the four scoring drives (3 fgs, 1 td) that the Bruins had, including two that resulted in field goals, none spanned more than 31 yards, and three of the drives covered 15 or fewer yards. UCLA finished the game with just 10 first downs and 220 yards. With the line currently listed at pick'em, its worth mentioning that the Ducks are an exceptional 32-13 ATS (31-14 SU) the past 35 times that they played a game in which the line ranged from +3 to -3. Look for another strong effort from the defense, combined with a MUCH better showing from the offense, as the Ducks bounce back with a big win, continuing their homefield dominance in this series. *December Blowout GOM
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