Al DeMarco
25 Dime - USC
10 Dime - Navy
10 Dime Teaser - Central Florida and Arizona
5 Dime - Virginia Tech
5 Dime - Tennessee
25 Dime - USC
Healthy once more, the Trojans are peaking at the right time as this is no longer the team that got upset by Stanford. I backed them Thanksgiving night at Arizona State and I?m coming right back with them again in revenge against injury-riddled UCLA. Southern Cal had won seven straight in the series, going 6-1 ATS, until getting upset by the Bruins last year, but now it?s time for payback and with USC on a 9-1 ATS run in home finales, why not? The home team is also on an 18-7 ATS series? run with the Trojans taking the last three on their home turf by an average of 33 points a game. Could this one be that easy? There?s certainly a possibility now that QB Booty, coming off a 375-yard, 4-TD effort at Arizona State last week, is healthy.
Although UCLA saw QB Olsen return to action last week against Oregon, and the Bruins? defense has registered 15 of its 35 sacks the past three weeks, Southern Cal is playing is best ball of the season on both sides of the line of scrimmage and revenge is the Trojans? today, along with a sixth straight Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl bid. Mark USC down for its sixth straight Coliseum cover in the series.
10 Dime - Navy
Navy has won five in a row in this granddaddy of rivalries (ATS runs of 8-2 and 4-1) prevailing by an average of 40-13. I could care less about the oft-quoted fact that no Navy or Army head coach has ever won six in a row in this series; the streak ends today as the Middies? field general Johnson enters into the record book. This game breaks down quite simply: The Navy triple-option offense versus the porous Army defense (229 yards allowed rushing per game, 4.8 ypc). Remember, this is the same Cadet "D" that allowed Air Force's option attack to collect 437 yards in a 20-point win in early November. And it's the same defense that allowed Rutgers to rumble for 404 yards in a 41-6 home loss a week later.
The favorite is on a 7-3 ATS roll in the series and the best thing about laying this number of points with the chalk is that you know in a series with this intensity there will be no letting up.
10 Dime Teaser - Central Florida and Arizona
In a traditional two-team teaser you're getting 6 points to play with so I want you to reduce the points you are laying with Central Florida, making the Knights about a 1 to 2 point home favorite against Tulsa. Then, I want you to increase the points you are getting with Arizona, making the Wildcats about a 12 1/2 to 13 1/2 point underdog at Arizona State.
Now a little analysis for each part of the teaser....
Central Florida vs. Tulsa Analysis:
Tulsa can flat out score points. The problem with the Golden Hurricane is that they can?t stop anyone. Prime example: Last week?s 48-43 win versus Rice in which they allowed 700 yards. Central Florida, fresh off their sixth straight win, a 36-20 rout of a bad UTEP squad, beat Tulsa at home earlier this year 44-23, outgaining the Hurricane 453-379 in total yardage. Key in that game was RB Smith, who ran for 170 yards and scored three times.
The Knights? defense has played much better of late, holding foes to an average of 21 points the past six games, and although that?s an unrealistic number against a high-powered Tulsa attack, the fact remains that UCF will score more than enough against Tulsa?s sieve-like defense, just like everyone else has this season to cover the spread. And the more Smith runs the ball and the Knights control the clock, the more Tulsa QB Smith is kept off the field. Also, Central Florida is 5-1 SU and ATS at its new stadium this year with a near upset of Texas along the way.
Arizona State-Arizona Analysis:
Early in the season I was a big backer of Arizona State, but even then I was warning you that the Sun Devils? lousy offensive line, the worst in the Pac-10 with 49 sacks allowed ? including 21 the past three games, and an annoying tendency to fall behind early necessitating big second-half comebacks, would ultimately be their downfall as the season progressed. Well, if you?ve followed me regularly, as the season unwound my support of ASU wavered and I went against them at Oregon and scored, and again on Thanksgiving versus USC and I cashed again as the Trojans thoroughly outplayed them, owning a commanding 508-259 advantage in total yards.
This is a huge rivalry series, one that Arizona has done well in of late, and this season the Wildcats enter on a nice hot streak of their own having won three in a row with a win today in Tempe putting them in position to earn their first bowl invite since ?98. Their offense, led by QB Tuitama (63% completions, 310 ypg, 26 TDs) is dangerous and their defense is much improved. Considering the road team has been deadly in this series, winning nine of the last 15 meetings straight-up, covering a dozen of those battles, why not grab the generous points as the dog is on a 12-3 ATS run.
FYI - The only reason I didn't use Arizona as a straight-up wager is because it rained hard Friday in the Phoenix area with more bad weather expected today. Figured I'd protect myself with the additional 6 points with a team I liked as a straight-up dog in the first place.
5 Dime - Virginia Tech
I had Virginia Tech in that memorable Thursday night meeting last month and with the exception of the game?s final 2:11 it looked like a brilliant call. Now in the rematch in Jacksonville, I?m coming right with with Hokies again who are driven by revenge and the knowledge that their defense held Boston College QB Ryan in check for nearly 58 minutes in the first go-round and can do so again. The key, however, in today?s rematch is the performance of V-Tech?s offense and although I?ve never been a fan of any team with a two quarterback system since the days of Morton and Staubach in Dallas (is that dating me?), there is no doubt that the Hokies are a different and more dynamic team offensively with the freshman Taylor at the helm. He missed the first game but is back healthy and with he and Glennon sharing the signal-calling duties, V-Tech?s offense has come to life in the season?s final month.
Given the fact that the Hokies? defense is one of the nation?s elite units, I?ll back them again as redemption is theirs, noting V-Tech is on a 6-1 ATS roll and has covered 17 of its last 22 outside of Blacksburg.
5 Dime - Tennessee
Tennessee really impressed me with how it overcame a dreadful performance at home two Saturdays ago versus Vanderbilt and jumped out to a big lead at Kentucky last Saturday. And the Vols impressed me even further when they withstood and survived one potential Wildcat comeback after another to sneak away with the quadruple overtime victory in Lexington. Games like that build confidence and that?s what separates the Vols and Tigers in this match-up as LSU is coming off its own overtime affair, the devastating loss to Arkansas on Black Friday.
Where the Razorbacks beat LSU on the ground, Tennessee is going to have to get the job done through the air, and QB Ainge has quietly put together a great season with 64% completions and 27 TDs versus only eight interceptions. Yes, he?ll be facing one of the nation?s top pass defenses, but he?s also playing behind a veteran OL that?s allowed just four sacks this year, tops in the country.
A lot of factors going against LSU right now. The Tigers are coming off a crushing loss that killed their bid to be No. 1. Their coach might be entertaining thoughts of jumping ship. Their starting QB is banged up. They?re in a 3-14-1 ATS slump versus SEC foes. True, LSU?s two losses this year were both in overtime (to Arkansas and Kentucky), and Tennessee managed to get crushed on the road at Alabama just a month ago. But, momentum is on the Vols? side right now (13-5 ATS run as a dog) and this seemingly is a four-point game making the pup the play.
25 Dime - USC
10 Dime - Navy
10 Dime Teaser - Central Florida and Arizona
5 Dime - Virginia Tech
5 Dime - Tennessee
25 Dime - USC
Healthy once more, the Trojans are peaking at the right time as this is no longer the team that got upset by Stanford. I backed them Thanksgiving night at Arizona State and I?m coming right back with them again in revenge against injury-riddled UCLA. Southern Cal had won seven straight in the series, going 6-1 ATS, until getting upset by the Bruins last year, but now it?s time for payback and with USC on a 9-1 ATS run in home finales, why not? The home team is also on an 18-7 ATS series? run with the Trojans taking the last three on their home turf by an average of 33 points a game. Could this one be that easy? There?s certainly a possibility now that QB Booty, coming off a 375-yard, 4-TD effort at Arizona State last week, is healthy.
Although UCLA saw QB Olsen return to action last week against Oregon, and the Bruins? defense has registered 15 of its 35 sacks the past three weeks, Southern Cal is playing is best ball of the season on both sides of the line of scrimmage and revenge is the Trojans? today, along with a sixth straight Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl bid. Mark USC down for its sixth straight Coliseum cover in the series.
10 Dime - Navy
Navy has won five in a row in this granddaddy of rivalries (ATS runs of 8-2 and 4-1) prevailing by an average of 40-13. I could care less about the oft-quoted fact that no Navy or Army head coach has ever won six in a row in this series; the streak ends today as the Middies? field general Johnson enters into the record book. This game breaks down quite simply: The Navy triple-option offense versus the porous Army defense (229 yards allowed rushing per game, 4.8 ypc). Remember, this is the same Cadet "D" that allowed Air Force's option attack to collect 437 yards in a 20-point win in early November. And it's the same defense that allowed Rutgers to rumble for 404 yards in a 41-6 home loss a week later.
The favorite is on a 7-3 ATS roll in the series and the best thing about laying this number of points with the chalk is that you know in a series with this intensity there will be no letting up.
10 Dime Teaser - Central Florida and Arizona
In a traditional two-team teaser you're getting 6 points to play with so I want you to reduce the points you are laying with Central Florida, making the Knights about a 1 to 2 point home favorite against Tulsa. Then, I want you to increase the points you are getting with Arizona, making the Wildcats about a 12 1/2 to 13 1/2 point underdog at Arizona State.
Now a little analysis for each part of the teaser....
Central Florida vs. Tulsa Analysis:
Tulsa can flat out score points. The problem with the Golden Hurricane is that they can?t stop anyone. Prime example: Last week?s 48-43 win versus Rice in which they allowed 700 yards. Central Florida, fresh off their sixth straight win, a 36-20 rout of a bad UTEP squad, beat Tulsa at home earlier this year 44-23, outgaining the Hurricane 453-379 in total yardage. Key in that game was RB Smith, who ran for 170 yards and scored three times.
The Knights? defense has played much better of late, holding foes to an average of 21 points the past six games, and although that?s an unrealistic number against a high-powered Tulsa attack, the fact remains that UCF will score more than enough against Tulsa?s sieve-like defense, just like everyone else has this season to cover the spread. And the more Smith runs the ball and the Knights control the clock, the more Tulsa QB Smith is kept off the field. Also, Central Florida is 5-1 SU and ATS at its new stadium this year with a near upset of Texas along the way.
Arizona State-Arizona Analysis:
Early in the season I was a big backer of Arizona State, but even then I was warning you that the Sun Devils? lousy offensive line, the worst in the Pac-10 with 49 sacks allowed ? including 21 the past three games, and an annoying tendency to fall behind early necessitating big second-half comebacks, would ultimately be their downfall as the season progressed. Well, if you?ve followed me regularly, as the season unwound my support of ASU wavered and I went against them at Oregon and scored, and again on Thanksgiving versus USC and I cashed again as the Trojans thoroughly outplayed them, owning a commanding 508-259 advantage in total yards.
This is a huge rivalry series, one that Arizona has done well in of late, and this season the Wildcats enter on a nice hot streak of their own having won three in a row with a win today in Tempe putting them in position to earn their first bowl invite since ?98. Their offense, led by QB Tuitama (63% completions, 310 ypg, 26 TDs) is dangerous and their defense is much improved. Considering the road team has been deadly in this series, winning nine of the last 15 meetings straight-up, covering a dozen of those battles, why not grab the generous points as the dog is on a 12-3 ATS run.
FYI - The only reason I didn't use Arizona as a straight-up wager is because it rained hard Friday in the Phoenix area with more bad weather expected today. Figured I'd protect myself with the additional 6 points with a team I liked as a straight-up dog in the first place.
5 Dime - Virginia Tech
I had Virginia Tech in that memorable Thursday night meeting last month and with the exception of the game?s final 2:11 it looked like a brilliant call. Now in the rematch in Jacksonville, I?m coming right with with Hokies again who are driven by revenge and the knowledge that their defense held Boston College QB Ryan in check for nearly 58 minutes in the first go-round and can do so again. The key, however, in today?s rematch is the performance of V-Tech?s offense and although I?ve never been a fan of any team with a two quarterback system since the days of Morton and Staubach in Dallas (is that dating me?), there is no doubt that the Hokies are a different and more dynamic team offensively with the freshman Taylor at the helm. He missed the first game but is back healthy and with he and Glennon sharing the signal-calling duties, V-Tech?s offense has come to life in the season?s final month.
Given the fact that the Hokies? defense is one of the nation?s elite units, I?ll back them again as redemption is theirs, noting V-Tech is on a 6-1 ATS roll and has covered 17 of its last 22 outside of Blacksburg.
5 Dime - Tennessee
Tennessee really impressed me with how it overcame a dreadful performance at home two Saturdays ago versus Vanderbilt and jumped out to a big lead at Kentucky last Saturday. And the Vols impressed me even further when they withstood and survived one potential Wildcat comeback after another to sneak away with the quadruple overtime victory in Lexington. Games like that build confidence and that?s what separates the Vols and Tigers in this match-up as LSU is coming off its own overtime affair, the devastating loss to Arkansas on Black Friday.
Where the Razorbacks beat LSU on the ground, Tennessee is going to have to get the job done through the air, and QB Ainge has quietly put together a great season with 64% completions and 27 TDs versus only eight interceptions. Yes, he?ll be facing one of the nation?s top pass defenses, but he?s also playing behind a veteran OL that?s allowed just four sacks this year, tops in the country.
A lot of factors going against LSU right now. The Tigers are coming off a crushing loss that killed their bid to be No. 1. Their coach might be entertaining thoughts of jumping ship. Their starting QB is banged up. They?re in a 3-14-1 ATS slump versus SEC foes. True, LSU?s two losses this year were both in overtime (to Arkansas and Kentucky), and Tennessee managed to get crushed on the road at Alabama just a month ago. But, momentum is on the Vols? side right now (13-5 ATS run as a dog) and this seemingly is a four-point game making the pup the play.
