Mark Lawrence
College Best Bets 15-3 last 6 Weeks
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (6-1)
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (4-3)
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK UPSET (1-4)
5* BEST BET MISSOURI
The Longhorns? scintillating win over No. 1 Oklahoma last Saturday
was not only one of the most exciting college football games of
the 2008 season, it also proved that a program devoid of highprofi
le superstars could play inspired TEAM football to topple
an ?unbeatable? Sooners squad. And what reward does Bevo reap
for accomplishing this stunning feat? A trio of gut-busting games
against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech! ?It was one of the
greatest football games I?ve ever seen,? said Texas coach Mack Brown
after the heavyweight battle, a victory that could have historical
signifi cance for the Longhorns. The last time Texas came out of the
OU game undefeated (2005), it won the Rose Bowl and a National
title. Well, don?t look for that to happen this year ? not through the
treacherous Big 12 ? and don?t be shocked if Bevo takes a stun gun
to the forehead right here. Our BRILLIANT DISGUISE article (page
2) is at work in favor of Missouri, a team that sports a fl awless 8-
0 ATS record on the road versus opponents off consecutive SUATS
wins. Tiger coach Pinkel is also 6-1 ATS against foes off a SU dog
win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the opponent has a winning
record. We?re sure the more keen-eyed of you are already shouting,
?Hey, wait! Missouri was unbeaten and got deep-sixed by Okie State.
Shouldn?t they be a BUBBLE BURST fade?? No, because the scenario
only works against FAVORED teams that were 5-0 or greater and
tasted defeat for the fi rst time. Even though Texas has covered eight
of the last nine games after Oklahoma, we think Chase Daniel and
company can win this outright. The new No. 1 goes down
4* BEST BET
You know we?re big Steve Spurrier fans, especially in conference play.
However, today is not the day to test the man?s demeanor. From a
talent standpoint the cards in this game are stacked heavily in LSU?s
favor, for sure. The defending National Champs have had blue chip
recruiting classes throughout the decade while the Gamecocks do their
best to just keep fellow Carolinians in Columbia. It?s been Spurrier?s
coaching moxie that has kept this team above water. The task at hand
today will be to suppress the wanton desires of a defending National
Champion in a game off its fi rst loss of the season. Other teams have
tried and according to our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3, almost all have
failed. To further add fuel to the fi re, LSU is 9-0 SU and 7-1-1 TS in
games off a loss the last six years. Bengal boss Les Miles himself is 11-0
SU and 9-1-1 ATS when favored in games off a SU and ATS defeat. To
add more kerosene to the fl ames, our powerful database tells us to:
Play On any team in Game Six off its fi rst loss of the season if they are
on the road versus a .500 or greater opponent that is off a win. That?s
because teams in this role are 21-5 ATS since 1980. With Spurrier 1-7
SU and 2-6 ATS in his career as a home dog of 4 or fewer points, there
will no SOS (Steven Orr Spurrier) signals being sent out of our office this week. LSU in a big bounce back.
3* BEST BET
Oklahoma?s upset loss to Texas last week not withstanding, football
in the state of Oklahoma has been delightful this season. The three
Football Bowl Subdivision (there?s that dang title, again) teams from
Merle Haggard?s beloved state ? OU, OSU and Tulsa ? are 17-1 combined
in 2008. The task at hand this week for Mike Gundy?s Cowboys will be to
keep focused on the task at hand, namely the Baylor Bears, and not on
a date with No. 1 ranked Texas next week. Good luck. For openers, Art
Briles has done a splendid job in his fi rst year at the helm with the Bears as
they have already won as many games as they did last season. It?s because
his troops are +53 net YPG on the year, a dramatic improvement from
last year?s -113 net YPG fi gure. Aside from the Longhorn look ahead,
Gundy battles a huge letdown possibility given the fact he is 0-4 ATS in
games off an underdog win and his team is 0-8-1 SU and 2-7 ATS games
after meeting Missouri. It?s simply too much of a BRILLIANT DISGUISE for
any team to overcome. Were going Bear hunting this week.
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK
VIRGINIA over N Carolina by 6
Virginia coach Al Groh?s realtor must be feeling a bit down right now.
After the Wahoos got dissected by Duke while opening the season 1-
3, ?Groh Must Go? banners were seen all around Charlottesville and a
change of address seemed like a certainty for the eight-year Cavalier
mentor. But when Virginia registered a pair of shocking upsets over
Maryland and East Carolina, Groh?s ?For Sale? signs disappeared from
his front yard. We don?t know where they went but they may as well
stay in storage: Virginia is 9-1 ATS kickin? it with the Heels (8-0 L8
home) and the Cavs have cashed to the tune of 7-1 ATS as ACC home
dogs of 5 or more points. Carolina?s gaudy 5-1 record is betrayed by a
mirror-opposite 1-5 mark ?In The Stats? and the Heels have fallen into
a lifeless 0-5 ATS pit when playing a conference team the week after
meeting a non-conference adversary. THIS JUST IN: teams who beat
Notre Dame and come favored in their next games are just 4-16 ATS
versus a conference foe of < .666. The Cavs have rolled up 66 points in
their last two games so we?ll stay along for the ride.