Saturday Services Plays 10/11/2008
- Thread starter quanjin
- Start date
Sports Insights
Sports Insights
Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
Overall = 8-10 = 44.4%
NCAA WEEK 7
We've got a trio of top-25 matchups this week, with two of them taking place in the Big 12. The biggest game appears to be the Red River Rivalry between No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 5 Texas. The Sooners look like a powerhouse, and the Longhorns are looking to prove they are a national title contender. Also taking place in the Big 12, No. 17 Oklahoma State travels to No. 3 Missouri. Both teams come in at 5-0 and have offenses ranked in the top 3 nationally. The other top-25 face-off takes place in the SEC as No. 4 and undefeated LSU travels to the Swamp to take on No. 11 Florida.
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you?ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true ?line value.? Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You?ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include Notre Dame at No. 22 North Carolina, No. 6 Penn State at Wisconsin, and Tennessee at No. 10 Georgia. Visit SportsInsights to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 7 ? Games to Watch
East Carolina vs Virginia (10/11 12P)
East Carolina came out of the gate in the 2008 season with two huge upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. These wins moved the Pirates into the top 15, but after that they escaped Tulane with a close win before losing two straight to North Carolina State and Houston. That made three straight disappointing efforts heading into their bye week. Their defense has become much more porous since losing linebacker Quentin Cotton during the Tulane game. They allowed 30 points to the Wolfpack and 41 to the Cougars. The Pirates' offense is led by QB Patrick Pickney, who has completed almost 70% of his passes and compiled over 1,000 yards.
Virginia was looking awful heading into last week's ACC match up with Maryland, but the Cavaliers pulled out a stunning 31-0 upset over the Terrapins. Virginia QB Marc Verica made his third start since Peter Lalich was kicked off the team, and he displayed the ability to run the Cavs offense by completing 25 of 34 passes for 226 yards with two touchdowns through the air. The Cavalier defense pitched their second shutout of the season, but they still allowed over 300 yards to the Terrapins.
East Carolina is coming off two losses and a bye week as they travel to Charlottesville. Skip Holtz should have his team prepared to bounce back from those disappointments. The Pirates opened as -4.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has moved to East Carolina -6.5 as they are receiving around 70% of spread bets from the books tracked by Sports Insights. The line movement triggered multiple Steam Moves from books with positive results. We'll take a hungry Pirates team looking to prove itself against a Cavalier team coming off a huge blowout win.
East Carolina -6.5
Tennessee vs Georgia (10/11 3:30P)
Tennessee is struggling this season as they sit at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in SEC play. The Volunteers are coming off a sloppy 13-9 win over Northern Illinois. Sophomore Nick Stephens made his first collegiate start in that game and was effective enough to earn the win. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 156 yards and one touchdown. The Volunteers also plan to utilize WR Gerald Jones' athleticism with a direct snap formation. The defense was effective against Northern Illinois as they held the Huskies to three field goals.
Georgia's bye week gave the Bulldogs an extra week to prepare for this SEC matchup after being blown out by Alabama at home two weeks ago. Head Coach Mark Richt was tougher on his team over the last two weeks due to a habit of committing costly penalties. They are averaging 87.4 penalty yards per game on the season. Tailback and Heisman Trophy candidate Knowshon Moreno is expected to play through an elbow injury. He is hoping to fare better against the Volunteers than he did last season when he produced a career-low 30 yards on 13 carries.
Georgia opened as -13 favorites at Pinnacle as Tennessee travels to play between the hedges. The line moved to Georgia -12 shortly after opening, and it has remained there across the marketplace. We like the line moving down in Georgia's favor as they're coming off that huge loss to Alabama. We'll take the Dawgs when there are still some books, such as SIA, offering Georgia -12.
Georgia -12 (SIA)
Middle Tennessee State vs Florida International (10/4 9PM)
Middle Tennessee shocked many people with a win against Maryland earlier in the season. Since then they have scored exactly 14 points in each of their three games, only winning against lowly Florida Atlantic 14-13. The Blue Raiders needed a late touchdown to pull out that win at home. The MTSU defense has forced 12 turnovers on the season, while the offense has committed 8. The Blue Raiders are currently 0-2 on the road.
Florida International plays their second home game in their new FIU stadium. In their home opener the Golden Panthers hung with then-No. 12 South Florida before falling 17-9. Since that close loss, FIU has won two roads games by convincing scores over Toledo and North Texas. Freshman T.Y. Hilton is a big play WR. He has 284 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 8 receptions for the season. He also gets the occasional carry, but he has yet to break a long run.
The game opened as a Pick at Pinnacle and other books tracked by Sports Insights, but it has since moved to Florida International -2 at most books. There isn't a huge discrepancy in the public betting percentages, but the Golden Panthers are receiving 54% of spread bets. Florida International has received multiple Steam Move triggers from books with winning records. We're going to follow the Steam and take the Golden Panthers at home only giving up a few points.
Florida International -2
So, here?s a wrap-up of ************analysis for this week?s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (8-7)
East Carolina -6.5
Georgia -12 (SIA)
Florida International -2
Sports Insights
Sports Marketwatch - College Football Edition
Overall = 8-10 = 44.4%
NCAA WEEK 7
We've got a trio of top-25 matchups this week, with two of them taking place in the Big 12. The biggest game appears to be the Red River Rivalry between No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 5 Texas. The Sooners look like a powerhouse, and the Longhorns are looking to prove they are a national title contender. Also taking place in the Big 12, No. 17 Oklahoma State travels to No. 3 Missouri. Both teams come in at 5-0 and have offenses ranked in the top 3 nationally. The other top-25 face-off takes place in the SEC as No. 4 and undefeated LSU travels to the Swamp to take on No. 11 Florida.
Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you?ll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true ?line value.? Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You?ll consistently need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
We're expecting heavy action on the top-25 match ups. Other games that should draw lots of action include Notre Dame at No. 22 North Carolina, No. 6 Penn State at Wisconsin, and Tennessee at No. 10 Georgia. Visit SportsInsights to view wagering statistics on NCAA games from multiple online sportsbooks. Here is a trio of line value games we are keying on.
NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 7 ? Games to Watch
East Carolina vs Virginia (10/11 12P)
East Carolina came out of the gate in the 2008 season with two huge upsets over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. These wins moved the Pirates into the top 15, but after that they escaped Tulane with a close win before losing two straight to North Carolina State and Houston. That made three straight disappointing efforts heading into their bye week. Their defense has become much more porous since losing linebacker Quentin Cotton during the Tulane game. They allowed 30 points to the Wolfpack and 41 to the Cougars. The Pirates' offense is led by QB Patrick Pickney, who has completed almost 70% of his passes and compiled over 1,000 yards.
Virginia was looking awful heading into last week's ACC match up with Maryland, but the Cavaliers pulled out a stunning 31-0 upset over the Terrapins. Virginia QB Marc Verica made his third start since Peter Lalich was kicked off the team, and he displayed the ability to run the Cavs offense by completing 25 of 34 passes for 226 yards with two touchdowns through the air. The Cavalier defense pitched their second shutout of the season, but they still allowed over 300 yards to the Terrapins.
East Carolina is coming off two losses and a bye week as they travel to Charlottesville. Skip Holtz should have his team prepared to bounce back from those disappointments. The Pirates opened as -4.5 favorites at Pinnacle, but the line has moved to East Carolina -6.5 as they are receiving around 70% of spread bets from the books tracked by Sports Insights. The line movement triggered multiple Steam Moves from books with positive results. We'll take a hungry Pirates team looking to prove itself against a Cavalier team coming off a huge blowout win.
East Carolina -6.5
Tennessee vs Georgia (10/11 3:30P)
Tennessee is struggling this season as they sit at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in SEC play. The Volunteers are coming off a sloppy 13-9 win over Northern Illinois. Sophomore Nick Stephens made his first collegiate start in that game and was effective enough to earn the win. He completed 10 of 17 passes for 156 yards and one touchdown. The Volunteers also plan to utilize WR Gerald Jones' athleticism with a direct snap formation. The defense was effective against Northern Illinois as they held the Huskies to three field goals.
Georgia's bye week gave the Bulldogs an extra week to prepare for this SEC matchup after being blown out by Alabama at home two weeks ago. Head Coach Mark Richt was tougher on his team over the last two weeks due to a habit of committing costly penalties. They are averaging 87.4 penalty yards per game on the season. Tailback and Heisman Trophy candidate Knowshon Moreno is expected to play through an elbow injury. He is hoping to fare better against the Volunteers than he did last season when he produced a career-low 30 yards on 13 carries.
Georgia opened as -13 favorites at Pinnacle as Tennessee travels to play between the hedges. The line moved to Georgia -12 shortly after opening, and it has remained there across the marketplace. We like the line moving down in Georgia's favor as they're coming off that huge loss to Alabama. We'll take the Dawgs when there are still some books, such as SIA, offering Georgia -12.
Georgia -12 (SIA)
Middle Tennessee State vs Florida International (10/4 9PM)
Middle Tennessee shocked many people with a win against Maryland earlier in the season. Since then they have scored exactly 14 points in each of their three games, only winning against lowly Florida Atlantic 14-13. The Blue Raiders needed a late touchdown to pull out that win at home. The MTSU defense has forced 12 turnovers on the season, while the offense has committed 8. The Blue Raiders are currently 0-2 on the road.
Florida International plays their second home game in their new FIU stadium. In their home opener the Golden Panthers hung with then-No. 12 South Florida before falling 17-9. Since that close loss, FIU has won two roads games by convincing scores over Toledo and North Texas. Freshman T.Y. Hilton is a big play WR. He has 284 yards and 3 touchdowns on only 8 receptions for the season. He also gets the occasional carry, but he has yet to break a long run.
The game opened as a Pick at Pinnacle and other books tracked by Sports Insights, but it has since moved to Florida International -2 at most books. There isn't a huge discrepancy in the public betting percentages, but the Golden Panthers are receiving 54% of spread bets. Florida International has received multiple Steam Move triggers from books with winning records. We're going to follow the Steam and take the Golden Panthers at home only giving up a few points.
Florida International -2
So, here?s a wrap-up of ************analysis for this week?s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 4.
Games to Watch (8-7)
East Carolina -6.5
Georgia -12 (SIA)
Florida International -2
HQ Report Newsletter 10/11
5* Penn St (-4) over Wisconsin by 13
3* Michigan (-17) over Toledo by 27
3* San Jose St (-15) over Utah State by 27
3* Middle Tennessee St (P) over Florida International by 7
*HQ Underdog Play of the Week
TOP PLAY -- Louisiana Tech (+7) over Hawaii (5-1)
*HQ Total Recall Over/Under
SINGLE PLAY -- Nebraska vs Texas Tech Play Over
DO NOT POST ATS PLAYS ON THE FORUM:ADMIN
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=339416
5* Penn St (-4) over Wisconsin by 13
3* Michigan (-17) over Toledo by 27
3* San Jose St (-15) over Utah State by 27
3* Middle Tennessee St (P) over Florida International by 7
*HQ Underdog Play of the Week
TOP PLAY -- Louisiana Tech (+7) over Hawaii (5-1)
*HQ Total Recall Over/Under
SINGLE PLAY -- Nebraska vs Texas Tech Play Over
DO NOT POST ATS PLAYS ON THE FORUM:ADMIN
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=339416
nelly
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5-c. mich
4-ore
3-ok st
2-nevada
2-toledo
1-ohio u
1-baylor
georgia-tenn under the total
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5-c. mich
4-ore
3-ok st
2-nevada
2-toledo
1-ohio u
1-baylor
georgia-tenn under the total
Power Plays 4*'s
CFB:
4* West Virginia
4* Ohio State
4* TCU
4* Georgia
4* Oregon
4* Auburn
4* Northern Illinois
4* Oregon State
4* Texas Tech
4* Miami-Fl
4* Florida
4* UTEP
4* Fresno State
4* FIU
4* Hawaii (Sunday)
CFB:
4* West Virginia
4* Ohio State
4* TCU
4* Georgia
4* Oregon
4* Auburn
4* Northern Illinois
4* Oregon State
4* Texas Tech
4* Miami-Fl
4* Florida
4* UTEP
4* Fresno State
4* FIU
4* Hawaii (Sunday)
Statfox
Statfox
STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET- NCAA
10/9/2008 (103) CLEMSON at (104) WAKE FOREST
The best teams in college football, or those you should be looking
to back as favorites in big games, are those with offensive balance.
Wake Forest doesn?t have it. The Demon Deacons are struggling to
get anything going on the ground this year, averaging just 85 YPG and
2.4 YPR. This is a big sore spot for a team with BCS aspirations, and
has a lot to do with why they are only putting up 8.2 PPG in the first
half of their first five contests. Here they will be playing as a favorite
against Clemson for the first time since prior to at least ?92, a span of
16 games or more. Furthermore, in the last two seasons when Wake
should have been more competitive with Clemson, it has resulted in
wins by Clemson of 34 and 10 points. The Tigers DO have that key
balanced attack, averaging 5 YPR and 7.6
PYA. That balance will be enough for HC
Tommy Bowden?s team to get out of Wake
with a crucial win on Thursday night.
Play: Clemson +2.5
10/11/2008 (119) TEXAS vs. (120)
OKLAHOMA
Texas and Oklahoma have played similar
schedules to date and each team is 5-0,
having not lost a game ATS either. Texas?
point differential is +35.8 PPG, Oklahoma?s
is +35.8 PPG. Both teams are putting up
over 6.5 yards per play on offense with OU
have a little better YPP defense. On top of
that, the last four games of this magnified
head-to-head series have been split 2-2. So
why then is Oklahoma nearly a TD favorite
in this neutral site game? PERCEPTION
of the #1 ranking. Quite frankly, if Texas
would have been perceived to be as good
as the Sooners at the outset of the season,
it might be #1 at this point. There are two
trends that catch my eye here as well:
OKLAHOMA is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in
road games versus good rushing defenses
- allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Plus, Texas is 26-13
ATS as an underdog. I?ve studied this game extensively and don?t see
any reason why it should be an easy win. In fact, I expect this to be the
most competitive Red River Rivalry game in many years. I?m grabbing
the points.
Play: Texas +7
10/11/2008 (143) TENNESSEE at (144) GEORGIA
Have there been any rumblings as to Phil Fullmer being on the hot seat
in Tennessee? It would seem to me on the surface that this team is
losing its position among the nation?s elite teams. However, sometimes
you have to go below the surface to see the truth in a club. The fact
is that this team is playing very competitively against an awfully tough
schedule to this point, especially on the defensive side of the ball. In
fact, they are holding teams 9.0 points below their normal scoring
averages. On offense they are struggling a bit at 18.0 PPG, but their
opponents thus far have yielded a stifling 20.3 PPG. If you do the math
using these numbers in this game vs. Georgia, these Outplay Factor
calculations would project a score of Georgia 25, Tennessee 17. The
Bulldogs aren?t exactly clicking at this point and will be in for tough
battle against a desperate Tennessee team. If you need more reason
to back the Vols here, simply read StatFox Doug?s article on page 17.
Play: Tennessee +13.5
10/11/2008 (175) PENN ST at (176) WISCONSIN
Camp Randall Stadium has been a tough place to play for Penn State
over the years, no matter how good the Nittany Lions have been. In
their last four trips here, they have been
held to exactly 3-points on three separate
occasions. In fact, if you look back and
study the history of Joe Paterno?s team?s
performance on the Big Ten road against
better teams, you certainly can?t like what
you see. Much of it can be seen in a trend
like this: PENN ST is 14-29 ATS (-17.9
Units) versus good defensive teams -
allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
Wisconsin still has to be considered one of
the better teams in the conference, it has
just been snake bitten by a treacherous
4-game schedule that will be ending with
this game. Let?s not forget that the Badgers
have won 25 of their last 27 games at
home. This is a tough spot for a team to
cover this big of a number on the road in
a conference game. Remember, only take
single-digit underdogs if you think they are
capable of winning the game outright.
Play: Wisconsin +5
10/11/2008 (179) LSU at (180) FLORIDA
With all due respect to the recent LSU
run in the SEC, I?m having trouble seeing
how they plan to keep up with Florida in the Swamp. Defense can win
you games, as explained by Doug on page 17, but there is just too
big of an offensive edge in this game with the Gators, and I feel the
need to exploit it. One team, Florida, is also much better prepared for
this showdown, having played a much tougher schedule to date. In
fact, the Tigers? defensive numbers are only this good because they
have played opponents that have combined to average 15.2 PPG on
offense, ironically, the same number that LSU allows. This means they
are not even outplaying the opposition on that side of the ball. In fact,
if you put together the StatFox Outplay Factor line for this game, you?ll
find that Florida should be favored by -20.4 points. This is a vastly
understated home field advantage for the Gators. LSU is nowhere
near as good as it has been the past few seasons. Don?t fall for the
hype of the matchup, these are two different level teams.
Play: Florida -4
STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. W VIRGINIA (-25) over SYRACUSE 10
2. VIRGINIA (+4.5) over E CAROLINA 9.5
3. HAWAII (-6.5) over LOUISIANA TECH 9.5
4. TEXAS TECH (-18.5) over NEBRASKA 8.5
5. ARIZONA (-6) over STANFORD 8
6. CINCINNATI (-8) over RUTGERS 7
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. TEMPLE (+10.5) over C MICHIGAN 19
2. MIAMI (-14) over UCF 16
3. FLORIDA (-5) over LSU 16
4. N ILLINOIS (-10.5) over MIAMI OHIO 16
5. TOLEDO (+18) over MICHIGAN 14
6. NEW MEXICO (+23) over BYU 13
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 7 (ATS & Total)
Friday, 10/10/2008 (107) LOUISVILLE vs. (108) MEMPHIS
Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a
road win (29-5 since 1992.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (6-1). L10 Seasons: (16-3).
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (187) TULANE vs. (188) UTEP
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home
favorite (24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-1). L5 Seasons: (11-1). Since 1992: (34-5).
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play On - A home team (FLA ATLANTIC, NORTH TEXAS) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season,
after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse (39-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.6%, +28 units.
Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (1-1). L3 Seasons: (17-3). L10 Seasons: (63-60). Since 1992: (95-85).
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 7 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (181) UTAH ST vs. (182) SAN JOSE ST
Dick Tomey is 22-3 UNDER (+18.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average
score was Tomey 23.2, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (141) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (142) MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA ST is 12-0 ATS (+12 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. The average score was
OKLAHOMA ST 38.8, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (131) UTAH vs. (132) WYOMING
WYOMING is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
WYOMING 12.1, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (119) TEXAS vs. (120) OKLAHOMA
Mack Brown is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of TEXAS. The
average score was Brown 42.7, OPPONENT 21 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (155) NEW MEXICO ST vs. (156) NEVADA
NEVADA is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score
was NEVADA 28.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (141) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (142) MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. The average
score was OKLAHOMA ST 24.1, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (121) E MICHIGAN vs. (122) ARMY
E MICHIGAN is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992. The average score was E MICHIGAN 17.4,
OPPONENT 34.9 - (Rating = 3*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (181) UTAH ST vs. (182) SAN JOSE ST
Dick Tomey is 27-7 UNDER (+19.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average score
was Tomey 21.8, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (137) PURDUE vs. (138) OHIO ST
Joe Tiller is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach
of PURDUE. The average score was Tiller 30.5, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 4*)
Defensive Underdogs are Superior Wagers
It was probably the middle 1990?s when I first ran across a system
for betting college football. For some reason it stuck in my mind,
probably because it always made sense, though for some reason
I never committed to it in the plethora of material I keep track of
in all the various sports. In fact, one part of the original system I
found is not an aspect of this equation, strictly because it?s been
forgotten. As you will read, this will have no affect on how profitable
this defensive underdogs college football betting system can be.
Like most of the systems that I uncover, I prefer to keep it simple,
not having too much to clutter the mind or think about with my
University of Phoenix degree (just kidding). What we want is a
clean system, easy to understand and an easy way to track down
the information. Here it is:
Look to play on a college football team that allows 275 or less
yards per game, particularly in the role of underdog.
The first part of this system makes all the sense in the world, since
the number of teams we?re talking about is very few from year to
year. The old clich?, ?defense win championships? holds up, even
in weekly situations, because if any team is holding opponents to
275 or fewer yards, they should be in almost any game they are
playing in.
To prove the point, we went back five years to discover how
good these defensive gems actually were. It must be noted, this
perspective is based on the whole body of work for the season,
not the individual games and team ranking at that moment. This
strengthens the point at the end of any particular year. However,
during the course a season, starting this week, you should have
confidence to consider any team for a potential wager. Never base
a selection on one aspect, yet if you have other reasons to like
specific team, this could be the clincher as a reason to officially
make such a wager.
Starting in 2003, the two best teams in the country that season
were LSU and Oklahoma. Both teams had exceptional regular
seasons and were chosen to play in the BCS championship in
New Orleans. The Tigers ended up holding teams to 252 yards per
game on the way to BCS title and were monster money-makers at
11-2 ATS that season. The only time they were an underdog was
against Oklahoma in season finale. The Sooners had been among
the best defensive teams all season and were unbeaten until they
lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma was never
an underdog in 2003. Miami-FL. ended up being second in the
country in total defense that season and was an underdog twice
that year, both times to Florida State, whom they beat during the
regular season and in the Orange Bowl.
Four teams made the cut in 2004; they were N.C. State, Alabama,
LSU and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack (5-6) and the Crimson Tide
(6-5) were run of the mill teams because of terrible offenses.
N.C. State finished 82nd nationally and Alabama 97th, proving
even outstanding defenses need some help. Because of these
deficiencies, Bama was 2-2 ATS as underdogs and Wolfpack was
slightly better at 2-1-1 ATS. A year after being the kings of college
football, LSU was 9-3 overall and was 2-1 ATS as underdogs.
Virginia Tech was one of the surprises of 2004 in posting a 9-2
regular season. The Hokies were led a thumping defense and
gave an unbeaten Auburn team all they could handle in the Sugar
Bowl, before falling 16-13, catching six points. They were perfect
3-0 ATS on the receiving end of points.
In 2005, three of the same teams that were on the defensive list
from the previous year were on it again. Virginia Tech, LSU and
Alabama made the roster and Miami-FL reappeared again. These
four universities were barking dogs in the truest sense that season,
posting an 8-1-1 against the spread record, led by the Hokies who
were once against 3-0.
Two seasons ago, the NCAA instituted rule changes to speed
up the college football game, which led 14 fewer plays per game
that season. At the same time, defenses just happened to have a
Defensive Underdogs are Superior Wagers - by Doug Upstone
more dominant season and 10 teams held the opposition to 275
yards or less, led by the omnipresent Hokies of Frank Beamer,
who surrendered just 219.5 yards per game. No question the fewer
plays mattered, based on averages. Of the 14 plays, presume
seven each were on offense and the better defensive teams of that
season allowed 4.4 yards per play, lowering any teams total by at
least 30 yards per game.
It turned out to be a banner campaign for Rutgers, who emerged
from nowhere to hit the national spotlight and their fourth-ranked
defense was 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Michigan won both their
matchups on the receiving end of points and Georgia was 3-1
against the number in the same role. The top 10 defense teams
were 17-9-1 ATS when positioned as underdogs by oddsmakers.
In 2007, those rules were reconfigured and only two teams were
stout enough to repress the opposition from making more than
275 yards of offense. By this time of the last football season,
Ohio State and LSU had distinguished themselves as the two
most talented teams in the country. The Buckeyes arrived earlier
than believed, however the talent was obvious. The Bayou Tigers
didn?t always play their best football for 60 minutes, but they made
plays when they had to. Because these teams were so good,
neither was an underdog until Ohio State was given the role in
the BCS championship game. LSU had their way with coach Jim
Tressel?s Buckeyes, making this the only game that qualified for
this system.
Here is a review of the years of this system against the spread.
2007 0-1
2006 17-9-1
2005 8-1-1
2004 9-4-1
2003 3-0
Total 37-15-3, 71.1 percent
As previously stated, this is with the benefit of looking back, not
being in the present. There are currently 20 teams that are under
the 275-yard threshold. One has to have football acumen to realize
Boston College probably doesn?t figure to be here for long, having
played Kent State, Central Florida and FCS squad Rhode Island.
Louisville is unlikely to be hanging out in this neighborhood for
long, since teams that give 23 points per game, will eventually find
their watermark.
Coach Bob Toledo is making exceptional alterations at Tulane and
the defense is much improved, since the days when a younger
Tommy Bowden had an unbeaten Green Wave squad in 1998.
Nonetheless, the idea of Tulane hanging in the area is ludicrous.
They fell from eight to 17th in total defense after Army ran
roughshod over the Green Wave for 290 yards rushing this past
Saturday. With five of last seven remaining games on the road,
playing in offensive-minded Conference USA, it seems Tulane will
stay with this contingent as likely as the return of ?Elf? to NBC.
Just this past weekend, underdog members of this club, Florida
State, South Carolina and Kentucky all covered the linemakers?
number, with the first two winning outright.
Therefore, the teams are on watch list the rest of the way should
be: TCU, ARIZONA, FLORIDA ST, USC, SOUTH CAROLINA,
TENNESSEE, AUBURN, PENN ST, OKLAHOMA, KENTUCKY,
UTAH, GEORGIA TECH, ALABAMA, LSU, SOUTH FLORIDA,
OHIO ST, and FLORIDA. You?ll already see that LSU is the
underdog in this week?s matchup with Florida, and the dog in
Saturday?s South Carolina-Kentucky matchup will also qualify.
Tennessee (at Georgia) is the only other team on the radar for
Week 7.
Being able to Play On a defensive dandy on the receiving end of
points can be a very enjoyable and profitable venture.
Statfox
STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET- NCAA
10/9/2008 (103) CLEMSON at (104) WAKE FOREST
The best teams in college football, or those you should be looking
to back as favorites in big games, are those with offensive balance.
Wake Forest doesn?t have it. The Demon Deacons are struggling to
get anything going on the ground this year, averaging just 85 YPG and
2.4 YPR. This is a big sore spot for a team with BCS aspirations, and
has a lot to do with why they are only putting up 8.2 PPG in the first
half of their first five contests. Here they will be playing as a favorite
against Clemson for the first time since prior to at least ?92, a span of
16 games or more. Furthermore, in the last two seasons when Wake
should have been more competitive with Clemson, it has resulted in
wins by Clemson of 34 and 10 points. The Tigers DO have that key
balanced attack, averaging 5 YPR and 7.6
PYA. That balance will be enough for HC
Tommy Bowden?s team to get out of Wake
with a crucial win on Thursday night.
Play: Clemson +2.5
10/11/2008 (119) TEXAS vs. (120)
OKLAHOMA
Texas and Oklahoma have played similar
schedules to date and each team is 5-0,
having not lost a game ATS either. Texas?
point differential is +35.8 PPG, Oklahoma?s
is +35.8 PPG. Both teams are putting up
over 6.5 yards per play on offense with OU
have a little better YPP defense. On top of
that, the last four games of this magnified
head-to-head series have been split 2-2. So
why then is Oklahoma nearly a TD favorite
in this neutral site game? PERCEPTION
of the #1 ranking. Quite frankly, if Texas
would have been perceived to be as good
as the Sooners at the outset of the season,
it might be #1 at this point. There are two
trends that catch my eye here as well:
OKLAHOMA is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in
road games versus good rushing defenses
- allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Plus, Texas is 26-13
ATS as an underdog. I?ve studied this game extensively and don?t see
any reason why it should be an easy win. In fact, I expect this to be the
most competitive Red River Rivalry game in many years. I?m grabbing
the points.
Play: Texas +7
10/11/2008 (143) TENNESSEE at (144) GEORGIA
Have there been any rumblings as to Phil Fullmer being on the hot seat
in Tennessee? It would seem to me on the surface that this team is
losing its position among the nation?s elite teams. However, sometimes
you have to go below the surface to see the truth in a club. The fact
is that this team is playing very competitively against an awfully tough
schedule to this point, especially on the defensive side of the ball. In
fact, they are holding teams 9.0 points below their normal scoring
averages. On offense they are struggling a bit at 18.0 PPG, but their
opponents thus far have yielded a stifling 20.3 PPG. If you do the math
using these numbers in this game vs. Georgia, these Outplay Factor
calculations would project a score of Georgia 25, Tennessee 17. The
Bulldogs aren?t exactly clicking at this point and will be in for tough
battle against a desperate Tennessee team. If you need more reason
to back the Vols here, simply read StatFox Doug?s article on page 17.
Play: Tennessee +13.5
10/11/2008 (175) PENN ST at (176) WISCONSIN
Camp Randall Stadium has been a tough place to play for Penn State
over the years, no matter how good the Nittany Lions have been. In
their last four trips here, they have been
held to exactly 3-points on three separate
occasions. In fact, if you look back and
study the history of Joe Paterno?s team?s
performance on the Big Ten road against
better teams, you certainly can?t like what
you see. Much of it can be seen in a trend
like this: PENN ST is 14-29 ATS (-17.9
Units) versus good defensive teams -
allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
Wisconsin still has to be considered one of
the better teams in the conference, it has
just been snake bitten by a treacherous
4-game schedule that will be ending with
this game. Let?s not forget that the Badgers
have won 25 of their last 27 games at
home. This is a tough spot for a team to
cover this big of a number on the road in
a conference game. Remember, only take
single-digit underdogs if you think they are
capable of winning the game outright.
Play: Wisconsin +5
10/11/2008 (179) LSU at (180) FLORIDA
With all due respect to the recent LSU
run in the SEC, I?m having trouble seeing
how they plan to keep up with Florida in the Swamp. Defense can win
you games, as explained by Doug on page 17, but there is just too
big of an offensive edge in this game with the Gators, and I feel the
need to exploit it. One team, Florida, is also much better prepared for
this showdown, having played a much tougher schedule to date. In
fact, the Tigers? defensive numbers are only this good because they
have played opponents that have combined to average 15.2 PPG on
offense, ironically, the same number that LSU allows. This means they
are not even outplaying the opposition on that side of the ball. In fact,
if you put together the StatFox Outplay Factor line for this game, you?ll
find that Florida should be favored by -20.4 points. This is a vastly
understated home field advantage for the Gators. LSU is nowhere
near as good as it has been the past few seasons. Don?t fall for the
hype of the matchup, these are two different level teams.
Play: Florida -4
STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. W VIRGINIA (-25) over SYRACUSE 10
2. VIRGINIA (+4.5) over E CAROLINA 9.5
3. HAWAII (-6.5) over LOUISIANA TECH 9.5
4. TEXAS TECH (-18.5) over NEBRASKA 8.5
5. ARIZONA (-6) over STANFORD 8
6. CINCINNATI (-8) over RUTGERS 7
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. TEMPLE (+10.5) over C MICHIGAN 19
2. MIAMI (-14) over UCF 16
3. FLORIDA (-5) over LSU 16
4. N ILLINOIS (-10.5) over MIAMI OHIO 16
5. TOLEDO (+18) over MICHIGAN 14
6. NEW MEXICO (+23) over BYU 13
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 7 (ATS & Total)
Friday, 10/10/2008 (107) LOUISVILLE vs. (108) MEMPHIS
Play Against - Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent off a
road win (29-5 since 1992.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (2-0). L5 Seasons: (6-1). L10 Seasons: (16-3).
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (187) TULANE vs. (188) UTEP
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TULANE) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home
favorite (24-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.9%, +20.7 units. Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (4-1). L5 Seasons: (11-1). Since 1992: (34-5).
MULTIPLE GAMES
Play On - A home team (FLA ATLANTIC, NORTH TEXAS) - with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season,
after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse (39-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.6%, +28 units.
Rating=4*).
The situation?s record this season is: (1-1). L3 Seasons: (17-3). L10 Seasons: (63-60). Since 1992: (95-85).
TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 7 (ATS & Total)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (181) UTAH ST vs. (182) SAN JOSE ST
Dick Tomey is 22-3 UNDER (+18.7 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average
score was Tomey 23.2, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 6*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (141) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (142) MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA ST is 12-0 ATS (+12 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. The average score was
OKLAHOMA ST 38.8, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (131) UTAH vs. (132) WYOMING
WYOMING is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was
WYOMING 12.1, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (119) TEXAS vs. (120) OKLAHOMA
Mack Brown is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of TEXAS. The
average score was Brown 42.7, OPPONENT 21 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (155) NEW MEXICO ST vs. (156) NEVADA
NEVADA is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. The average score
was NEVADA 28.1, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (141) OKLAHOMA ST vs. (142) MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA ST is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. The average
score was OKLAHOMA ST 24.1, OPPONENT 30.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (121) E MICHIGAN vs. (122) ARMY
E MICHIGAN is 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992. The average score was E MICHIGAN 17.4,
OPPONENT 34.9 - (Rating = 3*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (181) UTAH ST vs. (182) SAN JOSE ST
Dick Tomey is 27-7 UNDER (+19.3 Units) when playing on a Saturday as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average score
was Tomey 21.8, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 10/11/2008 (137) PURDUE vs. (138) OHIO ST
Joe Tiller is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach
of PURDUE. The average score was Tiller 30.5, OPPONENT 20.5 - (Rating = 4*)
Defensive Underdogs are Superior Wagers
It was probably the middle 1990?s when I first ran across a system
for betting college football. For some reason it stuck in my mind,
probably because it always made sense, though for some reason
I never committed to it in the plethora of material I keep track of
in all the various sports. In fact, one part of the original system I
found is not an aspect of this equation, strictly because it?s been
forgotten. As you will read, this will have no affect on how profitable
this defensive underdogs college football betting system can be.
Like most of the systems that I uncover, I prefer to keep it simple,
not having too much to clutter the mind or think about with my
University of Phoenix degree (just kidding). What we want is a
clean system, easy to understand and an easy way to track down
the information. Here it is:
Look to play on a college football team that allows 275 or less
yards per game, particularly in the role of underdog.
The first part of this system makes all the sense in the world, since
the number of teams we?re talking about is very few from year to
year. The old clich?, ?defense win championships? holds up, even
in weekly situations, because if any team is holding opponents to
275 or fewer yards, they should be in almost any game they are
playing in.
To prove the point, we went back five years to discover how
good these defensive gems actually were. It must be noted, this
perspective is based on the whole body of work for the season,
not the individual games and team ranking at that moment. This
strengthens the point at the end of any particular year. However,
during the course a season, starting this week, you should have
confidence to consider any team for a potential wager. Never base
a selection on one aspect, yet if you have other reasons to like
specific team, this could be the clincher as a reason to officially
make such a wager.
Starting in 2003, the two best teams in the country that season
were LSU and Oklahoma. Both teams had exceptional regular
seasons and were chosen to play in the BCS championship in
New Orleans. The Tigers ended up holding teams to 252 yards per
game on the way to BCS title and were monster money-makers at
11-2 ATS that season. The only time they were an underdog was
against Oklahoma in season finale. The Sooners had been among
the best defensive teams all season and were unbeaten until they
lost to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma was never
an underdog in 2003. Miami-FL. ended up being second in the
country in total defense that season and was an underdog twice
that year, both times to Florida State, whom they beat during the
regular season and in the Orange Bowl.
Four teams made the cut in 2004; they were N.C. State, Alabama,
LSU and Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack (5-6) and the Crimson Tide
(6-5) were run of the mill teams because of terrible offenses.
N.C. State finished 82nd nationally and Alabama 97th, proving
even outstanding defenses need some help. Because of these
deficiencies, Bama was 2-2 ATS as underdogs and Wolfpack was
slightly better at 2-1-1 ATS. A year after being the kings of college
football, LSU was 9-3 overall and was 2-1 ATS as underdogs.
Virginia Tech was one of the surprises of 2004 in posting a 9-2
regular season. The Hokies were led a thumping defense and
gave an unbeaten Auburn team all they could handle in the Sugar
Bowl, before falling 16-13, catching six points. They were perfect
3-0 ATS on the receiving end of points.
In 2005, three of the same teams that were on the defensive list
from the previous year were on it again. Virginia Tech, LSU and
Alabama made the roster and Miami-FL reappeared again. These
four universities were barking dogs in the truest sense that season,
posting an 8-1-1 against the spread record, led by the Hokies who
were once against 3-0.
Two seasons ago, the NCAA instituted rule changes to speed
up the college football game, which led 14 fewer plays per game
that season. At the same time, defenses just happened to have a
Defensive Underdogs are Superior Wagers - by Doug Upstone
more dominant season and 10 teams held the opposition to 275
yards or less, led by the omnipresent Hokies of Frank Beamer,
who surrendered just 219.5 yards per game. No question the fewer
plays mattered, based on averages. Of the 14 plays, presume
seven each were on offense and the better defensive teams of that
season allowed 4.4 yards per play, lowering any teams total by at
least 30 yards per game.
It turned out to be a banner campaign for Rutgers, who emerged
from nowhere to hit the national spotlight and their fourth-ranked
defense was 5-0 ATS as underdogs. Michigan won both their
matchups on the receiving end of points and Georgia was 3-1
against the number in the same role. The top 10 defense teams
were 17-9-1 ATS when positioned as underdogs by oddsmakers.
In 2007, those rules were reconfigured and only two teams were
stout enough to repress the opposition from making more than
275 yards of offense. By this time of the last football season,
Ohio State and LSU had distinguished themselves as the two
most talented teams in the country. The Buckeyes arrived earlier
than believed, however the talent was obvious. The Bayou Tigers
didn?t always play their best football for 60 minutes, but they made
plays when they had to. Because these teams were so good,
neither was an underdog until Ohio State was given the role in
the BCS championship game. LSU had their way with coach Jim
Tressel?s Buckeyes, making this the only game that qualified for
this system.
Here is a review of the years of this system against the spread.
2007 0-1
2006 17-9-1
2005 8-1-1
2004 9-4-1
2003 3-0
Total 37-15-3, 71.1 percent
As previously stated, this is with the benefit of looking back, not
being in the present. There are currently 20 teams that are under
the 275-yard threshold. One has to have football acumen to realize
Boston College probably doesn?t figure to be here for long, having
played Kent State, Central Florida and FCS squad Rhode Island.
Louisville is unlikely to be hanging out in this neighborhood for
long, since teams that give 23 points per game, will eventually find
their watermark.
Coach Bob Toledo is making exceptional alterations at Tulane and
the defense is much improved, since the days when a younger
Tommy Bowden had an unbeaten Green Wave squad in 1998.
Nonetheless, the idea of Tulane hanging in the area is ludicrous.
They fell from eight to 17th in total defense after Army ran
roughshod over the Green Wave for 290 yards rushing this past
Saturday. With five of last seven remaining games on the road,
playing in offensive-minded Conference USA, it seems Tulane will
stay with this contingent as likely as the return of ?Elf? to NBC.
Just this past weekend, underdog members of this club, Florida
State, South Carolina and Kentucky all covered the linemakers?
number, with the first two winning outright.
Therefore, the teams are on watch list the rest of the way should
be: TCU, ARIZONA, FLORIDA ST, USC, SOUTH CAROLINA,
TENNESSEE, AUBURN, PENN ST, OKLAHOMA, KENTUCKY,
UTAH, GEORGIA TECH, ALABAMA, LSU, SOUTH FLORIDA,
OHIO ST, and FLORIDA. You?ll already see that LSU is the
underdog in this week?s matchup with Florida, and the dog in
Saturday?s South Carolina-Kentucky matchup will also qualify.
Tennessee (at Georgia) is the only other team on the radar for
Week 7.
Being able to Play On a defensive dandy on the receiving end of
points can be a very enjoyable and profitable venture.
Al DeMarco
Saturday's Pick
15 Dime - OklahomaIf you've seen me on TV or heard me on radio, you know I usually say marquee games are the hardest to win because the lines are the sharpest. But this is one game where the price is right, shall we say, because although the touchdown number is stimulated to generate betting interest on both sides of the ledger, it doesn't reflect the fact that Oklahoma is clearly the superior team.
The word "team" is the key word in this analysis. Are both teams fast and athletic? Absolutely. Are both teams strong defensively? Yes again, although I believe the Sooners have the edge especially in the secondary and when it comes to rushing the passer. But on the other side of the line of scrimmage, I feel Oklahoma is the more versatile "team" because the Texas offense is too reliant on quarterback Colt McCoy, who is the Longhorns top rusher and only dependable running threat.
Texas has covered the last three in the series, but the Oklahoma team it faces today is better than those three previous editions that took the field. Quarterback Sam Bradford comes in completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, similar numbers as McCoy (16 TDs, 3 INTs), but again the Texas signal-caller doesn't have much support in his backfield.
Much criticism has been leveled in Bob Stoops' direction in recent years for his inability to deliver in big games, but the Sooners already got over one hurdle with a 35-10 pasting of an excellent TCU club in Norman. And I was equally impressed they didn't get caught looking ahead to this showdown - as they did last year when they got upset at Colorado - when they took care of business at Baylor last Saturday, jumping out to a 28-0 first-quarter lead en route to a 49-17 victory.
Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 outings in Big 12 revenge when laying less than 10 points and Stoops is 3-0 SU and ATS versus Mack Brown when these two squads meet when undefeated.
Will this be a blowout? No, Texas is a good team. But, this will be a solid Oklahoma victory by 10 to 13 points and a cover is all we care about.
Taking a look at the line.... As I post this play on Friday afternoon, I see Oklahoma at -7 almost everywhere in Vegas and offshore - as it has been practically all week long. If by chance your book has 7 1/2, you should buy down the 1/2 point back to -7 to insure you at least push should Oklahoma win by just a field goal.
Now, do you buy down the 1/2 point from 7 to 6 1/2 to insure Oklahoma wins you money if it wins by only a touchdown on the field? Well, we're always trying to push the odds a little more in our favor. Thus buying the 1/2 point down to 6 1/2 is the wise investment move as well.
With that being said, don't for a minute think that I don't realize that I'm asking you to spend additional funds - over and above the purchase of this selection - to essentially buy insurance on this pick. Myself, to be honest, I feel that the breaks always even out over the course of the year and in such situations it's a 50-50 proposition. Obviously there are no guarantees in gambling, but again, when you have the chance to hedge the odds in your favor for a small cost, it's worth the investment when the number is sitting on or around 7.
One more thing.... Don't ever discount the importance of price shopping by having numerous accounts and sources to play through. The same goes in Vegas where you're within walking distance or a short cab ride to from a 20+ sportsbooks waiting to take your action.
Fact of life is that some books always are priced higher for favorites. A pain when you're betting chalks, but great news if you're betting the dogs, right? Knowing where to play and when is often the difference between winning and losing. Obviously when you're betting a public team that's a favorite in a big game - such as Oklahoma - the line is more likely to increase as kickoff approaches. Thus, my rule of thumb in my 25 years in this business is to play favorites early and wait till later - as kickoff approaches - to play dogs, hoping to catch that extra 1/2 to 1 point for free. I'd say that strategy has worked about 85% of the time over the years, but as with anything in gambling, there are no guarantees.
Paid
Saturday's Pick
15 Dime - OklahomaIf you've seen me on TV or heard me on radio, you know I usually say marquee games are the hardest to win because the lines are the sharpest. But this is one game where the price is right, shall we say, because although the touchdown number is stimulated to generate betting interest on both sides of the ledger, it doesn't reflect the fact that Oklahoma is clearly the superior team.
The word "team" is the key word in this analysis. Are both teams fast and athletic? Absolutely. Are both teams strong defensively? Yes again, although I believe the Sooners have the edge especially in the secondary and when it comes to rushing the passer. But on the other side of the line of scrimmage, I feel Oklahoma is the more versatile "team" because the Texas offense is too reliant on quarterback Colt McCoy, who is the Longhorns top rusher and only dependable running threat.
Texas has covered the last three in the series, but the Oklahoma team it faces today is better than those three previous editions that took the field. Quarterback Sam Bradford comes in completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, similar numbers as McCoy (16 TDs, 3 INTs), but again the Texas signal-caller doesn't have much support in his backfield.
Much criticism has been leveled in Bob Stoops' direction in recent years for his inability to deliver in big games, but the Sooners already got over one hurdle with a 35-10 pasting of an excellent TCU club in Norman. And I was equally impressed they didn't get caught looking ahead to this showdown - as they did last year when they got upset at Colorado - when they took care of business at Baylor last Saturday, jumping out to a 28-0 first-quarter lead en route to a 49-17 victory.
Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 outings in Big 12 revenge when laying less than 10 points and Stoops is 3-0 SU and ATS versus Mack Brown when these two squads meet when undefeated.
Will this be a blowout? No, Texas is a good team. But, this will be a solid Oklahoma victory by 10 to 13 points and a cover is all we care about.
Taking a look at the line.... As I post this play on Friday afternoon, I see Oklahoma at -7 almost everywhere in Vegas and offshore - as it has been practically all week long. If by chance your book has 7 1/2, you should buy down the 1/2 point back to -7 to insure you at least push should Oklahoma win by just a field goal.
Now, do you buy down the 1/2 point from 7 to 6 1/2 to insure Oklahoma wins you money if it wins by only a touchdown on the field? Well, we're always trying to push the odds a little more in our favor. Thus buying the 1/2 point down to 6 1/2 is the wise investment move as well.
With that being said, don't for a minute think that I don't realize that I'm asking you to spend additional funds - over and above the purchase of this selection - to essentially buy insurance on this pick. Myself, to be honest, I feel that the breaks always even out over the course of the year and in such situations it's a 50-50 proposition. Obviously there are no guarantees in gambling, but again, when you have the chance to hedge the odds in your favor for a small cost, it's worth the investment when the number is sitting on or around 7.
One more thing.... Don't ever discount the importance of price shopping by having numerous accounts and sources to play through. The same goes in Vegas where you're within walking distance or a short cab ride to from a 20+ sportsbooks waiting to take your action.
Fact of life is that some books always are priced higher for favorites. A pain when you're betting chalks, but great news if you're betting the dogs, right? Knowing where to play and when is often the difference between winning and losing. Obviously when you're betting a public team that's a favorite in a big game - such as Oklahoma - the line is more likely to increase as kickoff approaches. Thus, my rule of thumb in my 25 years in this business is to play favorites early and wait till later - as kickoff approaches - to play dogs, hoping to catch that extra 1/2 to 1 point for free. I'd say that strategy has worked about 85% of the time over the years, but as with anything in gambling, there are no guarantees.
Paid
Northcoast week 6 Comp Line Plays: Button #9 plays last week a perfect 7-0
Monday Early Bird POW Button #9 Texas Tech -19.5 I played it Monday at -20 Now at -21
Tuesday Pow. Plays 4* POW Button #9 is Ohio St.-19
Tuesday UderDog POW Button #3 is on Mississippi St +2.5 (Lots of Cappers on this play this week)
Wednesday Economy #2 play Button #9 is on So. Carolina Pickem
Wednesday Big Dog POW is on Rutgers +9/ML +265 Now down to +8 and mostly +7.5 (will be at 7 by Saturday, possibly 6.5 by gametime)
Thursday PAC10/ #9 is on Oregon State Univ.-30
Thursday NFL Total POW bUTTON #3 is on OVER 44.5 Jets/Bengals
Monday Early Bird POW Button #9 Texas Tech -19.5 I played it Monday at -20 Now at -21
Tuesday Pow. Plays 4* POW Button #9 is Ohio St.-19
Tuesday UderDog POW Button #3 is on Mississippi St +2.5 (Lots of Cappers on this play this week)
Wednesday Economy #2 play Button #9 is on So. Carolina Pickem
Wednesday Big Dog POW is on Rutgers +9/ML +265 Now down to +8 and mostly +7.5 (will be at 7 by Saturday, possibly 6.5 by gametime)
Thursday PAC10/ #9 is on Oregon State Univ.-30
Thursday NFL Total POW bUTTON #3 is on OVER 44.5 Jets/Bengals
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Root
Chairman = Tex
Money Maker = Miss St
Insiders Circle = Okie St
No Limit = Fla
Perfect = Stanford
Mill Game of Decade = Wisc
Show best bet = Fla
Root
Chairman = Tex
Money Maker = Miss St
Insiders Circle = Okie St
No Limit = Fla
Perfect = Stanford
Mill Game of Decade = Wisc
Show best bet = Fla
Kelso
Kelso
Chairman
10 units Mich -16.5
10 units ECU -6.5
5 units Parlay above
Best Bets
5 units Illinois -12.5
4 units Iowa State +5
3 units UTEP -4
Kelso
Chairman
10 units Mich -16.5
10 units ECU -6.5
5 units Parlay above
Best Bets
5 units Illinois -12.5
4 units Iowa State +5
3 units UTEP -4
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northcoast Small College Plays:
2*Western Michigan
2*Mia Fla/UCF under 47 1/2
2* Rutgers/Cinn under 48
Northcoast Small College Plays:
2*Western Michigan
2*Mia Fla/UCF under 47 1/2
2* Rutgers/Cinn under 48
IndianCowboy
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Ball State Cardinals @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - Saturday October 11, 2008 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +15.5 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Western Michigan Broncos @ Buffalo Bulls - Saturday October 11, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Western Michigan Broncos +1.5 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Boise State Broncos @ So Mississippi - Saturday October 11, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: So Mississippi +11 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs - Saturday October 11, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Tennessee Volunteers +12 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Temple Owls @ Central Michigan Chippewas - Saturday October 11, 2008 4:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Temple Owls +7.5 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Ball State Cardinals @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - Saturday October 11, 2008 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +15.5 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Western Michigan Broncos @ Buffalo Bulls - Saturday October 11, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Western Michigan Broncos +1.5 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Boise State Broncos @ So Mississippi - Saturday October 11, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: So Mississippi +11 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs - Saturday October 11, 2008 3:30 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Tennessee Volunteers +12 (-110)
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Football
Game: Temple Owls @ Central Michigan Chippewas - Saturday October 11, 2008 4:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Temple Owls +7.5 (-110)