SATURDAY SEVICES 11/24

[Senor Capper]

Rob Ferringo

4-Unit Play. Take #150 Kentucky (-3) over Tennessee (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
It is always a huge red flag when an unranked team is favored over a ranked team. Tennessee is 1-3 on the road this year and got hammered by Alabama, California, and Florida. Kentucky has been the whipping boy in this series but are good enough to turn the tide. UK has covered three of four in this one and I?m looking for a double-digit win.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #133 Missouri (+2) over Kansas (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 23)
I believe that the Tigers are the better, more battle-tested team here and that playing in their home state is going to give them all the advantage they need. This is a value play, getting us the better team with the points, and I will be on the moneyline on this game as well.

3-Unit Play. Take #144 South Carolina (+3) over Clemson (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Clemson had its bubble burst last weekend and I think that with two weeks to prepare Steve Spurrier is going to have his charges ready to roll in this rivalry game. The Tigers have owned this matchup recently but I think that this is a better USC team than we?ve seen in some time. This is also a statement about the SEC being better than the ACC.

3-Unit Play. Take #173 Ball State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
These are two teams heading in opposite directions and Ball State has absolutely dominated on the road in this series. The Cardinals have been one of the best bets in college football this year and I think they make a statement win here to give themselves better positioning for a bowl game. NIU wants to throw the ball and play a high-scoring affair. That plays right into BSU's hands.

2-Unit Play. Take #190 Stanford (-3.5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 24)
Even though the Irish managed a win over feeble Duke last week I still think they are one of the worst teams in Division I. Stanford is no prize, but you know they?ve had this game circled and any team with the talent to beat USC is good enough to beat this Notre Dame squad.


================


Doc's sports college

4* Miss st -6.5
4* boise st +3
4* S car. +2.5
4* wake forest -2
4* memphis -7.5
4* ball st -8.5
4* virginia +3.5
5* CFU -19

--------------------------------------------------
MARC LAWRENCE CFB PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB PLAY,

Perfect System Club

CFB 11/24/07 BREAK DANCE
PLAY ON any college conference home dog off a win with rest and
revenge in their final home game of the season if they allow 31.5 <
PPG versus an opponent off a win in which they covered the spread by
4 > points.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 18-0

Play On: Virginia

Rationale: The combination of rest and revenge works well for home
dogs off a win, especially when playing their final home game of the
season. Bring the opponent in off a comfortable win and they perform
to the best of their ability
------------------------------------------------
CKO

11 *VANDERBILT over Wake Forest

Late Score Forecast:

*VANDERBILT 32 - Wake Forest 23
Southern CKO sources report veteran, smartly-coached Vandy has been able to quickly shake off painful 25-24 come-from-ahead loss vs. rival Tennessee (FG kicker missed 3 of 4!) in preparation for "monumental" match vs. Wake Forest. After all, 'Dores become bowl eligible with their 1st non-losing season since 1982 with victory here! We like their chances. Vandy's well-balanced attack, directed by more careful QB Adams (4 TDs, no ints. last 2 games) will do damage vs. penetrable WF defense which has allowed 36 pts. or more in 3 road games in '07. And after facing a challenging trio of gifted, rifle-armed QBs in Tebow, Woodson & Ainge over past 3 weeks, swift, gang-tackling Vandy defense (just 19 ppg in 5 home games) will be prepared for Deacons less-dynamic aerial game generating fewer than 200 ypg (only 10 TDP). Moreover, 'Dores won't be fooled by Grobe's myriad of misdirection plays, having upset Deacons 24-20 in Winston-Salem in '05

10 *UCF over Utep

Late Score Forecast:

*UCF 52 - Utep 24
Hot meets cold in this game, as UCF has won 5 straight, posting a 4-1 spread mark as star RB Kevin Smith rushed for 206 ypg and 14 TDs in that streak. Contrast that success with slumping UTEP, which has exactly the reverse record (0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. the number) and has yielded 45 ppg & 528 ypg in that nosedive. The UTEP defense yields 5.0 ypc and ranks 100th against the run, so "24-K" (Smith), who leads the nation in scoring at 13.6 ppg, figures to continue his productive surge. UCF sr. QB Kyle Israel is also contributing, completing 69% of his passes in the Golden Knights last 5. It will be a raucous crowd at the new Bright House Networks Stadium, where the first 5 games have resulted in 5 of the top 8 all-time crowds for UCF home games.



10 *RICE over Tulsa

Late Score Forecast:

*RICE 37 - Tulsa 38
Realize a win here gives Tulsa a spot in the C-USA championship game, but a victory won't come easily in Houston. Few QBs (if any) are hotter than Rice triggerman Chase Clement, who's thrown for 1112 yards & 12 TDs in the last 3 games. The Owls have put up 43 ppg, and Clement and jr. WR Jarett Dillard have hooked up 33 times in that run, with Dillard catching 2 TD passes in each of the three games. Okay, so Rice doesn't play defense, but that's not exactly Tulsa's forte either. The Golden Hurricane gives up 34 ppg & ranks 104th in total defense this season, and Tulsa has had turnover issues (-8 ratio). Certainly Tulsa QB Paul Smith (3rd in the country in total offense) will do damage, but Clement will trade him TD-for-TD all the way



10 WASHINGTON ST. over *Washington

Late Score Forecast:

WASHINGTON ST. 30-*Washington 24
Admittedly, Washington State's 8-TO nightmare vs. Oregon State was bad enough to prompt a visit from Mike Wallace to see what really happened vs. Beavers. But Pac-10 sources convinced those shenanigans unlikely to occur in heated Apple Cup, where Cougs should be focused to atone for bitter 3-point home loss to U-Dub in '06 that knocked WSU out of bowl picture. Can't blame Cougar "D" for the result vs. OSU, and Bill Doba's stop unit has indeed played much better in second half of season since young 2ndary matured and platoon switched to 3-4 alignment. And no surprise if WSU QB Brink exploits burnable Husky "D" in his final game as a Coug. Meanwhile, UW unreliable as chalk (2-8 last 10 in role) with either Jake Locker or backup Carl Bonnell (just 7 of 19 vs. Cal) at QB.
_________________________




Power Play 4*

4* Mississippi State
4* Colorado State
4* South Florida
4* Missouri (Only if they are an underdog)
4* North Carolina
4* Tulane
4* Miami-Ohio
4* Washington
4* TCU
4* UL-Monroe
4* Florida Atlantic
------------------------------------------------
Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
CENTRAL FLORIDA over Utep RATING: 1
VANDERBILT over Wake Forest RATING: 1
SAN JOSE STATE over Nevada RATING: 2
KANSAS over Missouri RATING: 3
WEST VIRGINIA over Uconn RATING: 3
FRESNO STATE over Kansas State RATING: 4
OKLAHOMA STATE over Oklahoma RATING: 5
CINCINNATI over Syracuse RATING: 5
-----------------------------------------------
Power Sweep

4* Memphis
3* Georgia
3* Marshall
2* Alabama
2* Vandy
2* W. Virg

Underdog POW
San Jose State
_________________________

 

[Senor Capper]

Angle of the week
Play Against: TEXAS A&M

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Utah is a wallet-fattening
15-0-1 ATS as a conference dog
versus an .800 < opponent.



3* Texas by 14
4* tenny by 13
5* Utah by 10

UPSET UPSET UPSET UPSET
S CAROLINA over Clemson


===============

Tim Trushel

College Game Of Year

20* Featured Play
Kentucky -2.5

 

[quanjin]

does anyone have John Ryan's plays for saturday?

does anyone have John Ryan's plays for saturday?

thanks.

he has 3 big plays.

 

[Jballgame9]

Anyone have Big Al's plays?? Including his non-conference GOY?????

 

[quanjin]

does anyone have Dr. bob's college football plays?

does anyone have Dr. bob's college football plays?

thanks.

 

[TrickDaddy]

J B Sports Anyone?

J B Sports Anyone?

Thanks in advance.:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[Giacomo]

Northcoast Infomercial

Monday

Early Bird POW

North Carolina

Tuesday

Underdog POW

South Carolina

Power Plays

4* Tulane

Wednesday

Econlmy Club

Miami Fla.

Thursday


Northcoast Big Dogs

Arkansas
Utep
Tulane
Rice
Florida State
Miami Fla

 

[Giacomo]

Steve Simonson Picks

8* Virginia +4 opinion on the under also
7* Memphis -7

10* Cincy -20 Best Bet, Syracuse has only had one game at home this year where they haven't lost by at least 24, and that was the buffalo game. I look for Cincy to destroy the orange. Coming off a tough loss last week will give them even more motivation to finish the year strong!!! Cincy by at least 4 TDs!!! GOM!!!

8* Missouri +2
9* So. Miss -13 1/2

 

[Giacomo]

Spylock

1 Kentucky -3
1 Stanford -3.5
1 Kansas -2


MARC LAWRENCE CFB PICKS for TODAY

5* Virginia + 3.5
4* Utah + 4.5
3* Tennessee + 3 & Buy A Extra 1/2 Point
3* Georgia Tech + 3.5


Dr Bob NCAA Football
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 23 S. Florida (-10.0) 24
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
South Florida came through with a 55-17 win over Louisville as a 4-Star Best Bet last week, but that win sets the Bulls up in a very negative 12-51 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week. Pittsburgh is certainly good enough defensively to keep this game tight and teams with a good defense are pretty good bets as big double-digit underdogs. The Panthers, in fact, are 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 points or more, including a 24-17 upset home win as a 10 point home dog to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has allowed just 4.5 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team and that unit is just as good as South Florida’s well publicized stop unit that has also yielded just 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl. The difference in these teams is offense (Pitt is 0.9 yppl worse than average while South Florida is 0.4 yppl better than average) and turnovers (USF is +12 in turnover margin while Pitt is -5). My math model does project a 76 yards and 0.9 yppl advantage for South Florida in this game but you can’t expect South Florida to continue to be as fortunate in the turnover department as they’ve been in recent games. My math model favors USF by just 8 points in this game and the situation against the Bulls is very strong. South Florida is an impressive 40-28-1 ATS lifetime in all games, but the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in conference road games following consecutive victories, which verifies the flat spot they are in today. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 ½ down to +7 ½ points.

3 Star Selection
***Miami Ohio 33 OHIO (-2.0) 25
11:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami-Ohio has locked up a trip to the MAC Championship game but the Redhawks still haven’t become bowl eligible as a loss in this game coupled with a loss to Central Michigan in the MAC title game would leave Miami with a losing record and no bowl game. The Redhawks also have a score to settle with rival Ohio, who won last year’s game 34-24. Miami applies to a 36-5 ATS subset of an 87-29 ATS revenge situation and my math model favors Miami-Ohio by ½ a point in this game – so we have a little line value to go with the good situation. I’ll take Miami-Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 2- Stars at pick or -1.

3 Star Selection
***NORTH CAROLINA (-14.0) 38 Duke 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
North Carolina is a much better team than their 3-8 record indicates and the Tarheels will finally get to show off their talents against a horrible Duke squad that has lost 5 consecutive games by 17 points or more (0-5 ATS) and just lost by 21 points to a horrible Notre Dame team. North Carolina has averaged 5.2 yards per play this season while their solid defensive unit had yielded just 5.1 yppl and the Tarheels have outplayed a schedule that rates at 3.4 points better than average. The teams that North Carolina has faced would out-gain an average team 5.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl, so the Tarheels rate at 0.1 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively. Duke has faced a schedule of teams that is slightly worse than North Carolina’s compensated numbers and the Blue Devils have been out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.1 yppl by those teams - and Duke’s defense is 0.2 yppl worse since losing their best defensive lineman Patrick Bailey 5 games ago. My math model projects a 209 total yards advantage for UNC in this game and the Tarheels’ have a solid special teams edge. Duke is also 6-16 ATS under coach Ted Roof when they are not an underdog of more than 14 points and the only times they cover in that role is if the opponent is coming into the game on a winning streak (Duke is 3-15 ATS in that pointspread range if the opponent is not off 2 wins). The math model favors North Carolina by 24 ½ points in this game and gives the Tarheels a 62% chance of covering at -14 points based on past predictability of my math model. The Tarheels would still be worthy of a Best Bet up to -16 ½ points (57%). I’ll take North Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars from -14 ½ to -16 ½ points and the Tarheels would be a Strong Opinion at -17 points (55.3% chance of covering).

3 Star Selection
***Alabama 23 AUBURN (-6.0) 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Alabama was caught looking ahead to this rivalry game and lost straight up to UL Monroe as a 24 ½ point home favorite. A 6-5 record and a loss to a Sun Belt team is not exactly what Alabama fans envisioned with Nick Saban signed on as the coach of the Tide. However, a win over bitter rival Auburn will surely help heal some wounds and I expect the Crimson Tide to play their best game of the season today. Alabama applies to a very strong 64-14 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss and Auburn applies to a negative 17-48 ATS team off a late season bye angle. Underdogs of more than 4 points are 11-3-1 ATS in this rivalry and Alabama’s loss last week has supplied us with a little line value (my math model favors Auburn by just 4 ½ points). I’ll take Alabama in a 3- Star Best Bet at +4 points or more, for 4-Stars at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3 points.

2 Star Selection
**STANFORD (-3.5) 26 Notre Dame 14
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Notre Dame finally recorded a legitimate win last week, as they beat a horrible Duke team 28-7 while out-gaining the Blue Devils 5.3 yards per play to 3.6 yppl. Notre Dame’s other win at UCLA was a complete fluke, as they got 7 turnovers from the Bruins’ 3rd string quarterback and won despite only gaining 140 total yards. My math model actually favored Notre Dame by 9 ½ points in that game, which tells you how bad Duke is. Stanford may be the worst team in the Pac-10, but the Cardinal are not that bad on a national scale and they should be favored by at least 10 points in this game. Stanford’s offense has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season, but the Cardinal have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team and they rate at just 0.2 yppl worse than average with Tavita Pritchard at quarterback. Notre Dame’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average so the Irish have a 0.9 yppl advantage over Stanford’s offense. That advantage won’t be enough since the Irish are 1.8 yppl worse than average offensively (3.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) while Stanford’s defense is only 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to a schedule of good offensive teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team). So, the Cardinal have a 1.5 yppl advantage over Notre Dame’s offense. Notre Dame does have 1.4 points edge in projected turnovers, but Stanford has a huge edge in special teams and my math model favors the Cardinal by 11 ½ points in this game and gives them a 59.3% chance of covering based on the historical predictability of my math model. Some of you may think that Notre Dame’s offense is improving based on the 96 points that they’ve scored in their last 3 games, but the Irish only averaged 4.4 yppl in those games against Navy, Air Force, and Duke – who would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. So, Notre Dame’s offense has been 2.0 yppl worse than average in those 3 games, which is actually a bit worse than their season rating of -1.8 yppl. The Irish are just as bad as they’ve been all season and Stanford will enjoy taking a break from the nation’s 3rd toughest schedule. Stanford’s only game against a team at Notre Dame’s level resulted in a 37-0 win over San Jose State and I see a pretty comfortable win for the Cardinal in this game. I’ll take Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.

2 Star Selection
**WEST VIRGINIA (-17.5) 38 Connecticut 12
12:30 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Connecticut’s 9-2 record will certainly get the attention of West Virginia’s players and the Mountaineers will be motivated by the potential for a National Championship game appearance. The Mounties apply to a very strong 34-6-1 ATS subset of a 91-37-2 ATS situation that plays on teams with one or fewer losses late in the season and I expect West Virginia’s top game today. Connecticut is certainly no pushover, as they have a solid defense (4.7 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) and take care of the ball (quarterback Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions). However, the Huskies have benefited from 21 defensive interceptions in 11 games and they cannot depend on such good fortune against a quarterback in Patrick White that has thrown only 3 interceptions in 10 games this season. Connecticut’s good defense also doesn’t match up well with a run-oriented West Virginia attack, as the Huskies are great against the pass and just average defending the run (4.4 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.4 yprp against an average team). The Huskies strong pass defense won’t do them much good in this game, as Patrick White will simply take off an run if he doesn’t find anyone open (White has 984 yards on 141 rushing plays). West Virginia averaged 6.8 yards per play against a good Rutgers defense with similar characteristics, as the Scarlet Knights are also very good defending the pass and just average against the run. Connecticut’s offense is a bit worse than average and I don’t see them doing much damage against a good West Virginia stop unit that has yielded just 4.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. My math model takes into account the favorable match-up for West Virginia’s offense and favors the Mountaineers by 19 points. I only need a fair line to play the strong angle favoring the Mounties and I’ll take West Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -19 points or less and for 3-Stars at -17 points or less (-115 odds or less) .

Strong Opinion
Miami Fla 21 BOSTON COLLEGE (-14.5) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Miami Florida failed to cover at Virginia Tech last week despite being in a very favorable situation. The Hurricanes once again apply to a very strong situation – a 64-11 ATS blowout bounce-back situation – while Boston College applies to a negative 15-59 ATS double-digit home favorite letdown situation that is based on their upset win at Clemson last week. Boston College has clinched a berth in the ACC Championship game and it may be tough for the Eagles to get up for a team that has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 games. Boston College does have revenge, but that was under a different coach and the Eagles always have revenge against Miami (they haven’t beaten them since 1982) and it never seems to matter. My math model favors Boston College by 13 ½ points, so Miami’s recent bad play has supplied us with a little line value. Miami can become bowl eligible with a win today and the Hurricanes are still playing hard (their defense allowed a respectable 5.3 yppl to Virginia Tech but they were hurt by a -3 turnover margin). I realize that it’s not easy to bet on a Miami team that has allowed 92 points in their last two games, but teams with a win percentage of .333 or higher are actually 47-25-1 ATS after losing back-to-back games in which they allowed 41 points or more in each game, and the Hurricanes still have a better than average defense (5.1 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). The line is fair and the situation is strongly in favor of Miami and I should be betting this game. I just can’t seem to pull the trigger and make the Hurricanes a Best Bet, so I will consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d make the Hurricanes a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.

Strong Opinion
FLORIDA (-13.5) 40 Florida St. 21
02:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
Florida has slipped up a couple of times this season and lost to teams that they should have beaten (Auburn and Georgia), but the Gators are still one of the very best teams in the nation. No team has a better offense than Florida’s attack, which has averaged 7.1 yards per play and 43 points per game against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl and 24 points per game to an average team. Florida State is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team), which is actually the average level of defense that the Gators have faced this year (so scoring around their average of 43 points should be expected). The Gators do have a problem defending the pass, allowing 6.4 yards per pass play to teams that would aveage 5.9 yppp against an average team, but they stuff the run (3.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp) and Drew Weatherford is not likely to fully exploit Florida’s secondary given that he is a below average passer that rarely throws the ball down the field (he’s averaged a modest 6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback while throwing for an average of just 11.4 yards per completion). Overall, Florida’s defense is 0.2 yppl better than average while Florida State’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Weatherford at quarterback (the Seminoles’ rushing attack has mustered only 4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team). My math model favors Florida by 20 points in this game and there are situations that favor both sides in this game. The stronger situation favors Florida State and that will keep me from making Florida a Best Bet in this game. I’ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -14 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Clemson (-2.5) 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
04:00 PM Pacific, 24-Nov-07
I’ve won Best Bets going against South Carolina in their last two games against Arkansas and Florida and I’m tempted to do so again. The Gamecocks have trouble stopping the run (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed) and Clemson has two good running backs to do some damage. The Gamecocks had been very good defending the pass this season, but the loss of top cover corner Captain Munnerlyn (he played just one snap against Florida and is done for the season) hurts that pass defense and South Carolina allowed Florida to average 9.5 yards per pass play against them last week. Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has been just a bit better than average on a yards per pass play basis this season but he has only thrown 5 interceptions all season, so the Tigers should be able to move the ball well on the ground and adequately through the air. South Carolina’s offense is just 0.1 yards per play better than average this season and they’ll likely struggle against a solid Clemson defense that has allowed just 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Overall, my math model favors Clemson by 3 ½ points and the Tigers apply to a decent 169-100-2 ATS revenge situation. Like a lot of season ending rivalry games the road team has been profitable in this series, going 20-6 ATS since 1981 and 13-2 ATS with revenge. I’ll consider Clemson a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.


Pointwise Redsheet

Central Florida 61 Utep 30
Rating:89 C. Florida

Ohio U 34 Miami-Oh 20
Rating:89 Ohio U

South Carolina 27 Clemson 20
Rating:89 South Carolina

Cincinnati 43 Syracuse14
Rating:88 Cincinnati



Nelly's 10-Star GOY

#188 @Virginia (+3.5) vs. Virginia Tech ? 11:00 am CST

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (+3.5)
over Virginia Tech Hokies



This game will decide the fate of the ACC Coastal division and both squads have put together excellent seasons at 9-2. Virginia Tech has rebounded from a devastating blowout loss to LSU early in the season to win eight of nine games with the one loss in that span coming in a miraculous comeback by Boston College. The Hokies have cruised the last three weeks but the offense is averaging just 326 yards per game with an extremely limited vertical passing game and after back-to-back big wins the Hokies are forced to go on the road to face in-state rival Virginia in a tough situation.

The Hokies are getting by with a two-QB system with incumbent starter Glennon leading the pass attack and freshmen QB Taylor adding a rushing element. Despite impressive numbers on the scoreboard the last two weeks, the Hokies offense has not received great production from the offense with Glennon completing less than 50 percent of his passes in those games and Taylor is a one-dimensional threat with only two games this season with over 90 yards passing. The Virginia Tech running game has lacked the success of past Tech squads and RB Ore has not gained over 100 yards in any game this season. The Hokies offensive line has been one of the worst in the conference at protecting the QB, which has been a big part of the weak passing numbers. Virginia Tech is known for defense and special teams and the numbers are impressive on the season. The Tech schedule has only featured two good rushing teams all season however, LSU gained over 300 rushing yards in a blowout win and Georgia Tech rushed the ball effectively with 105 yards against the Hokies but six turnovers led to a win for Virginia Tech.

Virginia does not have great overall numbers running the ball due to a horrible first game effort but the Cavs have rushed for at least 120 yards in eight of the last ten games and RB Mikell Simpson has become a big part of the offense since the injury to starter Peerman. Despite marginal scoring numbers, Virginia?s offense has gained over 300 yards in every game since the opener, something Virginia Tech has failed to do six times this season through similar ACC schedules. Tech prides itself on creating turnovers but the Hokies have been extremely fortunate, going +18 in the last eight games in turnover margin. Virginia has turned the ball over just 16 times all season, one of the lowest figures in the nation. QB Jameel Sewell is now 100 percent healthy and he provides superior passing skills to either Virginia Tech QB with decent rushing ability as well. In his second season as a starter Sewell has eleven touchdown passes and over 230 rushing yards while leading the Cavs on several game-winning drives. Virginia?s defense has posted numbers just as strong as Tech?s, allowing just 17 points per game while getting at least two sacks in every game this season. Virginia is a team that has refused to lose, winning six games by less than a touchdown.

The situation definitely favors the Cavaliers as Virginia Tech is coming off deceptively convincing wins against the two marquee programs in the ACC, Florida State and Miami. Both games were actually much closer than the final score indicated as Tech scored 34 4th quarter points in the two games. With a big emphasis on winning those two games, a letdown after a the big home win over former Big East rival Miami is likely to occur as the Hokies are 2-4 ATS in the last six years in the game following the Miami game. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare for this huge game and also has the memory of a shutout loss at Virginia Tech last season in its mind. Virginia has survived several close calls this season but the record is impressive, including four wins on the road. Virginia gets the opportunity to play a home underdog this week, a situation they have covered in twelve of the last 13 opportunities. The Cavs also fit several impressive systems for teams in final home games including a nearly 80 percent system for teams off bye weeks and a revenge system hitting over 70 percent over the last 25 years including a perfect 5-0 this season. Since Al Groh took over the Virginia program the Cavs are 34-9 S/U at home and he can lead Virginia to one of its biggest wins ever Saturday.


12:30:00 PM KENTUCKY WILDCATS(-2.5)
over Tennessee Volunteers

KENTUCKY (-) over Tennessee at 1:30 pm EST

**Point Train** The Wildcats have struggled since their upset of current-No. 1 LSU but will return to form this week in their rivalry game with their neighbors to the south, Tennessee. Few people remember the Kentucky team that started 5-0 and beat the supposedly unbeatable Tigers from the Bayou. But the Train remembers that team and that?s the team that will show up for this game.

The Vols aren?t nearly as good as their four-game winning streak might suggest. Each of those four wins came at home and two of them (against South Carolina and Vanderbilt) came in the final minutes. Going on the road has been a completely different story for Tennessee. It has gone just 1-3 ATS away from home this year, with those three losses coming by a whopping 25.7 points per game. The Vols got demolished at Cal, Florida and ?Bama. This game will be no different.

Kentucky may not have beaten Tennessee in 22 years but those records can be thrown out in this game. The Wildcats are 4-2 ATS at home this year, including their 6-point win over LSU as 10-point dogs earlier this year. If they can beat LSU, they can sure beat Tennessee. With an 11-5 ATS mark in its last 16 games, Kentucky is the play in this game. Take the ?Cats.
11/24/2007
2:30:00 PM WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (-18)
over Connecticut Huskies

ASA 6-Star West Virginia (-18) over Connecticut Saturday ? 2:30 pm CST

A lot of experts wrote West Virginia off following its 21-13 loss to South Florida earlier this year. That was a mistake. The Mountaineers have since rebounded with five straight wins to propel themselves to No. 3 in the BCS rankings. Kansas, the team in front of West Virginia at No. 2, has two tough games left on its schedule and is due for a loss. The Mountaineers know that if they win out, and do it convincingly, they have a great shot at going to the National Championship game. Look for a big blowout in this game.

The West Virginia offense has carried the team over the past few years but the defense has caught up with the offense this year. The Mountaineers are equally strong against both the run and the pass as they are 13th in the country with just 93 rushing yards allowed per game and 18th with just 195.6 passing yards allowed per game. This defensive balance has led to the fourth-best total defense in the nation and the eighth-best scoring defense with just 17.3 points allowed per game.

For all of Connecticut?s success this season, it simply isn?t a good offense. The Huskies are just 86th in the country in total offense and don?t do anything particularly well. They?ve won based almost solely on strong efforts from their defense. But they haven?t played an offense like West Virginia?s yet.

The Mountaineers are third in the nation with 289.4 rushing yards per game, with the troika of quarterback Pat White and running backs Steve Slaton and Noel Devine providing a nearly impossible three-pronged attack. White and Slaton have combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns while Devine has chipped in with 390 yards on nearly 10 yards per carry. West Virginia may not pass for a lot of yards but it is very efficient with its passing game as it is 11th in the nation in passing efficiency. This balance has led to 39.2 points per game this year.

West Virginia has never lost to Connecticut, going 3-0 both SU and ATS since the Huskies joined Big East play. The Mountaineers have won those three games by an average of 23.3 points per game and have covered by more than a touchdown per meeting. With the national championship in its sight, expect West Virginia to send a message with a blowout win. Take the Mountaineers at home minus the points.

 

[Giacomo]

Mighty Quinn

99~113
last week 7~11
record is before thursdays and fridays action

Pitt +10
Conn + 1 7 1/2
Mizz (BB) +2
Kent -3
Ducks -2
Burn -6
Bull dogs - 3 1/2
Fla -14
Ok -11 1/2
BC - 14 1/2
Vir - 3 1/2
Stan - 3 1/2


ASA 6-Star

West Virginia (-18) over Connecticut Saturday ? 2:30 pm CST

A lot of experts wrote West Virginia off following its 21-13 loss to South Florida earlier this year. That was a mistake. The Mountaineers have since rebounded with five straight wins to propel themselves to No. 3 in the BCS rankings. Kansas, the team in front of West Virginia at No. 2, has two tough games left on its schedule and is due for a loss. The Mountaineers know that if they win out, and do it convincingly, they have a great shot at going to the National Championship game. Look for a big blowout in this game.

The West Virginia offense has carried the team over the past few years but the defense has caught up with the offense this year. The Mountaineers are equally strong against both the run and the pass as they are 13th in the country with just 93 rushing yards allowed per game and 18th with just 195.6 passing yards allowed per game. This defensive balance has led to the fourth-best total defense in the nation and the eighth-best scoring defense with just 17.3 points allowed per game.

For all of Connecticut?s success this season, it simply isn?t a good offense. The Huskies are just 86th in the country in total offense and don?t do anything particularly well. They?ve won based almost solely on strong efforts from their defense. But they haven?t played an offense like West Virginia?s yet.

The Mountaineers are third in the nation with 289.4 rushing yards per game, with the troika of quarterback Pat White and running backs Steve Slaton and Noel Devine providing a nearly impossible three-pronged attack. White and Slaton have combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns while Devine has chipped in with 390 yards on nearly 10 yards per carry. West Virginia may not pass for a lot of yards but it is very efficient with its passing game as it is 11th in the nation in passing efficiency. This balance has led to 39.2 points per game this year.

West Virginia has never lost to Connecticut, going 3-0 both SU and ATS since the Huskies joined Big East play. The Mountaineers have won those three games by an average of 23.3 points per game and have covered by more than a touchdown per meeting. With the national championship in its sight, expect West Virginia to send a message with a blowout win. Take the Mountaineers at home minus the points.


Carlo Campanella


7* Play On Georgia


Northcoast Early Bird

UNC -13.5


Johhny Detroits Service Insider for Saturday‏


Service Insider
Georgia Tech +4
Florida -13.5
So. Miss -14


Red Zone Sports

Total of Week Oregon /UCLA under 50.5

Top Side of Week South Carolina +3


Toby Scott

5 units Fresno St +1


POINT TRAIN 10* GOY

11/24/2007
12:30:00 PM KENTUCKY WILDCATS(-2.5)
over Tennessee Volunteers

KENTUCKY (-) over Tennessee at 1:30 pm EST

**Point Train** The Wildcats have struggled since their upset of current-No. 1 LSU but will return to form this week in their rivalry game with their neighbors to the south, Tennessee. Few people remember the Kentucky team that started 5-0 and beat the supposedly unbeatable Tigers from the Bayou. But the Train remembers that team and that?s the team that will show up for this game.

The Vols aren?t nearly as good as their four-game winning streak might suggest. Each of those four wins came at home and two of them (against South Carolina and Vanderbilt) came in the final minutes. Going on the road has been a completely different story for Tennessee. It has gone just 1-3 ATS away from home this year, with those three losses coming by a whopping 25.7 points per game. The Vols got demolished at Cal, Florida and ?Bama. This game will be no different.

Kentucky may not have beaten Tennessee in 22 years but those records can be thrown out in this game. The Wildcats are 4-2 ATS at home this year, including their 6-point win over LSU as 10-point dogs earlier this year. If they can beat LSU, they can sure beat Tennessee. With an 11-5 ATS mark in its last 16 games, Kentucky is the play in this game. Take the ?Cats.

11/24/2007
2:30:00 PM WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (-18)
over Connecticut Huskies


NELLYS

( PAID and CONFIRMED )

10* Virginia +3.5
3* Utah +4.5
2* West Virginia -19
Reply With Quote

Nelly's 10-Star GOY #188 @Virginia (+3.5) vs. Virginia Tech ? 11:00 am CST

This game will decide the fate of the ACC Coastal division and both squads have put together excellent seasons at 9-2. Virginia Tech has rebounded from a devastating blowout loss to LSU early in the season to win eight of nine games with the one loss in that span coming in a miraculous comeback by Boston College. The Hokies have cruised the last three weeks but the offense is averaging just 326 yards per game with an extremely limited vertical passing game and after back-to-back big wins the Hokies are forced to go on the road to face in-state rival Virginia in a tough situation.

The Hokies are getting by with a two-QB system with incumbent starter Glennon leading the pass attack and freshmen QB Taylor adding a rushing element. Despite impressive numbers on the scoreboard the last two weeks, the Hokies offense has not received great production from the offense with Glennon completing less than 50 percent of his passes in those games and Taylor is a one-dimensional threat with only two games this season with over 90 yards passing. The Virginia Tech running game has lacked the success of past Tech squads and RB Ore has not gained over 100 yards in any game this season. The Hokies offensive line has been one of the worst in the conference at protecting the QB, which has been a big part of the weak passing numbers. Virginia Tech is known for defense and special teams and the numbers are impressive on the season. The Tech schedule has only featured two good rushing teams all season however, LSU gained over 300 rushing yards in a blowout win and Georgia Tech rushed the ball effectively with 105 yards against the Hokies but six turnovers led to a win for Virginia Tech.

Virginia does not have great overall numbers running the ball due to a horrible first game effort but the Cavs have rushed for at least 120 yards in eight of the last ten games and RB Mikell Simpson has become a big part of the offense since the injury to starter Peerman. Despite marginal scoring numbers, Virginia?s offense has gained over 300 yards in every game since the opener, something Virginia Tech has failed to do six times this season through similar ACC schedules. Tech prides itself on creating turnovers but the Hokies have been extremely fortunate, going +18 in the last eight games in turnover margin. Virginia has turned the ball over just 16 times all season, one of the lowest figures in the nation. QB Jameel Sewell is now 100 percent healthy and he provides superior passing skills to either Virginia Tech QB with decent rushing ability as well. In his second season as a starter Sewell has eleven touchdown passes and over 230 rushing yards while leading the Cavs on several game-winning drives. Virginia?s defense has posted numbers just as strong as Tech?s, allowing just 17 points per game while getting at least two sacks in every game this season. Virginia is a team that has refused to lose, winning six games by less than a touchdown.

The situation definitely favors the Cavaliers as Virginia Tech is coming off deceptively convincing wins against the two marquee programs in the ACC, Florida State and Miami. Both games were actually much closer than the final score indicated as Tech scored 34 4th quarter points in the two games. With a big emphasis on winning those two games, a letdown after a the big home win over former Big East rival Miami is likely to occur as the Hokies are 2-4 ATS in the last six years in the game following the Miami game. Virginia has had two weeks to prepare for this huge game and also has the memory of a shutout loss at Virginia Tech last season in its mind. Virginia has survived several close calls this season but the record is impressive, including four wins on the road. Virginia gets the opportunity to play a home underdog this week, a situation they have covered in twelve of the last 13 opportunities. The Cavs also fit several impressive systems for teams in final home games including a nearly 80 percent system for teams off bye weeks and a revenge system hitting over 70 percent over the last 25 years including a perfect 5-0 this season. Since Al Groh took over the Virginia program the Cavs are 34-9 S/U at home and he can lead Virginia to one of its biggest wins ever Saturday.


Cappers Access

Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Sat) CFB Boston College Miami-Fla 14- Boston College
(Sat) CFB Stanford Notre Dame 5 Notre Dame
(Sat) CFB Florida Florida st 14 Florida St

 

[tbillduck]

Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers

Does anyone have Teddy Covers for Saturday?

Thanks, Tbillduck

 

[the duke]

Trey Johnson

5* Rivalry Game of the Year!

#163 Georgia (-) vs Georgia Tech at 3:30 PM EST

With their chances of a trip to the SEC title game out of their hands, the Bulldogs need a Tennessee loss to get into the championship game, Georgia can concentrate on defeating instate rival Georgia Tech for the seventh straight year. Regardless of the Tennessee outcome the Bulldogs know a win today will get them into a BCS game. They know they simply need to take care of business. By the way, Bagz, Ronnielee and catfish at Gamblers Egde are fags and suck each other off. Georgia has won the past six in this series by an average of 15 points and holds a 13-3 advantage in their last 16 meetings. Since 1992 Georgia is a solid 17-6 ATS against ACC opponents. Georgia is 10-4 ATS against Georgia Tech since 1992 including a 6-1 ATS mark at Georgia Tech. With so much on the line the Bulldogs will not allow a subpar Yellow Jacket squad to derail them here. Georgia gets a huge win and a BCS berth in dominating fashion today. Play Georgia (-)


Trey Johnsons Perfect 4-0 Blowout of the Month!

With the support of a Perfect 4-0 Situation and an awesome 89% winning trend our Blowout of the Month is just that; A Blowout!

3* Selection
#170 Oklahoma (-) vs Oklahoma State at 3:30 PM EST

With a No. 4 ranking in the BCS and talks of a shot at the title the Sooners dreams were shattered by an explosive Texas Tech squad. Now Oklahoma is fighting just to get a shot at the Big 12 crown. Another loss and even that will be gone. The Sooners will be up for the fight. The Cowboys are last in the Big 12 against the pass, allowing 303.1 yards per game and 10th in the league in total defense, allowing an average of 443.0 yards. By the way, did I tell you that Bagz, Ronnielee and Catfish at Gamblers Egde are fags and suck each other off. The Sooners have won the last four meetings including two in Norman by a combined 71 points. OU coach Stoops is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS off a SU loss. Not only does Oklahoma get a much needed win, they completely crush their biggest rival. Play Oklahoma (-)


Trey Johnsons 93% CFB Crusher of the Month!

With the support of an awesome 93% Winning Trend this crusher of the month is money in the bank.

2* Selection
#136 N Carolina (-) vs Duke at 3:30 PM EST

North Carolina may be 3-8 but are in now way as bad as Duke. Six of their eight losses came by 2, 3, 4, 4, 6, and 7 points. They hung tough with East Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, NC State and Georgia Tech. With a little luck they could have won any one of those games. Although, in Butch Davis? first year as head coach, the Tar Heels have been snake bitten we look for them to pull out all the stops today as they fight to surpass last seasons win total of three games. Against a Duke squad that is allowing 34.4 points per game and only scoring 17.2 ppg on the road North Carolina should be in good shape here. The Tar Heels are 14-1 SU against Duke since 1992. They will get the win again today as well as cover with a roast of the extremely outmanned Blue Devils.

Play North Carolina (-)

 

[the duke]

MATT RIVERS

500,000* HIGHEST RATED PLAY OF MY ENTIRE LIFE! Plus Bonus Lock


1. 500,000♦ Kentucky

2. 100,000♦ Virginia Tech



1. If Tennessee wins this game they earn a berth in the SEC title game against LSU. But that is not happening, no how no way!

Phil Fulmer's team is going to get bludgeoned today by the finally healthy Kentucky Wildcats. Andre Woodson is an absolute star who will shred this Volunteer defense and Rafael Little, Steve Johnson and Keenan Burton are going to take part in the feast with their immense speed and athleticism.

The 'Cats have lost three of four but that is entitrely meaningless and I take nothing negative at all from those games. Sure falling at home to Mississippi State was pathetic, even with the Bulldogs improvements, but KU was decimated with injuries that day and were in a terrible spot after games against LSU and Florida kept the team in thee biggest letdown situation ever.

Erik Ainge has had a great year and is legit but this spot is terrible for Tennessee, even with the motivation of trying to get past Georgia and win the SEC East. Fulmer's group comes in with a four game winning streak and 8 of 9 but this team is going to miss LaMarcus Coker a great deal today and get smacked in the mouth here as the 'Cats break the 26 or so losing streak to their rival here.

In the SEC sometimes it's not about hot or cold or even talent. Situations and spots are huge along with the homefield advantage and this is the epitome of a game where these will come up huge.

I gave you Alabama in the blowout home win over Tennessee a month ago despite the Vols having the overall more talented team. This is not far at all from that game and I am looking for a similar 41-17 type of a final for the home team.

This game very well may even cost Fulmer his job because the loss is going to be ugly with a capital U!



2. Virginia has been one of the surprise teams this season and overall have been great but they are still lacking offense, save that 48-0 win in Miami a few weeks ago and are up against a red hot and stout beast today in Frank Beamer's Hokies.

In the beginning of the season Tech had a ton of issues and seemed to not be very good. But things have completely changed as Beamer's boys have gotten better and better and better each week and now can beat anybody at all in the nation. Tyrod Taylor is as athletic as they come and dangerous from anywhere at anytime. Sean Glennon has greatly improved and has been limiting his mistakes this season. Whoever starts today I am fine with.

The Tech wide receivers have been stepping up a ton of late as both Justin Harper and Josh Morgan have improved a great deal and this team is no longer a run first and pass when only they have to offense anymore.

Tech is the last team that will implode on the road as they have already proved to be able to travel very well in the monster blowout wins in Clemson and Georgia Tech as the dog.

The Cavaliers have a very athletic Quarterback in Jameel Sewell and Al Groh's team has come a long long way since the dreadful opening loss in Wyoming but to ask them to hang around with the far superior Hokies is a bit much. The defense will do its thing and we are not looking at a total burial but I do not see UVA being able to really move the ball and for Tech to be just too stout and good overall.

After four grinding quarters of play the overachieving and quality Virginia season will get derailed a bit. UVA has been living on borrowed time with three 18-17 wins and things are about to catch up with them here in a 10-13 point loss!


150,000* OFF-LINE LOCK Plus Bonus Lock


1. 150,000♦ Florida State

2. 100,000♦ Georgia


1. Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin and the Gators are the better team and the squad which has been far more impressive this season but if you want to give me Bobby Bowden's still talented and athletic Seminoles plus a few touchdowns then I am all for it.

No matter how terrible the 'Noles look at times this is still Florida State plus two touchdowns in a rivalry game! Are you kidding me!??!!? The potential is still there and we saw it in the upset win in Chestnut Hill against the previously undefeated Boston College Eagles. There is just too much of an upside thanks to the still numerous athletes that the 'Noles boast to not love this number.

Florida's defense has been sketchy pretty much all season long and I can see Drew Weatherford being able to throw the ball and put up some points for sure. No doubt Tebow and the stout Florida offense will wreak some havoc as well but the Gators still really do not have that much of a running game and FSU will be extremely pumped up and locked and loaded in this bragging rights game and when Bowden's boys are motivated they are as dangerous as they come.

Florida State has won three of four with the lone loss coming in Virginia Tech and the Seminoles were leading that thing in the final quarter as well before they were decimated by injury.

To get such an insane number back with Florida State is a total coup!



2. Georgia always beats Georgia Tech, just ask the UGA undefeated Seniors in this series, and the way the Yellow Jacket offense has struggled this season I really do not think much changes today.

The crowd should really be not that heavy for Tech as the Bulldawg fans will come in droves and root on their surging Dawgs. Knowshon Moreno is a total star in the making and Matthew Stafford will be an NFL Quarterback in the near future. Tashard Choice is very good for the home Jackets but Moreno is a step above and the signal callers are no comparison as Stafford is much better than lefty Taylor Bennett

Chan Gailey is fighting for his job and may get fired in a few days if not hours but don't cry for him as he will still get paid for the next four years. On the oppposite extreme is the beloved Mark Richt who is the man in Athens in a major way and has been a total leader in leading his team to a top 10 ranking and a possible National Title game if luck falls their way.

The Dawgs defense may be a notch below Philip Wheeler and the Jackets but in terms of the big picture UGA is the far more balanced squad and after the disappointing first 11 games Taylor Bennett will be in some trouble today in another ass-kicking of a loss!

 

[the duke]

Tim Trueshel

11/24/07 CFB 20* Featured Play: Kentucky -2.5 (150)


11/24/07 CFB Pittsburgh +10 (128)


11/24/07 CFB South Carolina +3 (144)


11/24/07 CFB Ohio U -2 (152)


11/24/07 CFB Washington State +6 (181)


11/24/07 CFB Virginia +3.5 (188)

 

[the duke]

Insider Sports Report

5* Georgia -3.5 over Georgia Tech (NCAAF)

4* Cincinnati -20.5 over Syracuse (NCAAF)

4* Tulsa -12 over Rice (NCAAF)

3* Tulane/E. Carolina (NCAAF) OVER 62.5

3* Kansas -1 over Missouri (NCAAF)

 

[the duke]

Gold Medal Club

CFB

25* Alabama +6
25* Maryland ML +120
15* Southern Miss -14
15* Wake Forest -1
15* N.Illinois +9

 

[the duke]

Ethan Law

2* GEORGIA TECH +4
1* OHIO +1.5
1* SOUTH CAROLINA +3
1* ALABAMA +5
1* DUKE +15.5
1/2* RICE +14
1/2* UTAH +5

2* Georgia Tech

This game might actually cement what college football is all about! These two teams absolutely despise one another and this is quietly becoming one of the most intense rivalry games in all of CFB. Georgia (9-2 SU & 6-4 ATS) is one of the nation?s hottest teams, riding a five-game winning streak that could land it in the SEC Championship game or the Sugar Bowl but with help. The offense is lead by sophomore quarterback Matthew Stafford (17 touchdowns, 9 interceptions) and running backs Thomas Brown and red-shirt freshman Knowshon Moreno, both have been spectacular to say the least. They are off a hard fought win against Kentucky, and they also had a 42-30 upset of Florida where their running backs garnered an impressive 195 yards on the ground. Indeed, the Bulldogs faced a tough stretch run but won all three key SEC games, beating No. 14 Florida (42-30 win), No. 18 Auburn (45-20 win) and No. 22 Kentucky (24-13). Meanwhile, Georgia Tech (7-4 SU & 5-5 ATS) are winner of 4 of their last 5 and have won back-to-back wins over Duke and North Carolina to become bowl eligible. Nevertheless, winning a second-tier bowl game in December is nothing compared to beating Georgia for the first time since 2000 so for all intents and purposes this is GT's BOWL GAME! The Yellow Jackets have one of the best defenses in the country as they allow opposing offense only 17 points per game on 98 yards rushing (just 2.7 yards per carry). The offense is lead by junior quarterback Taylor Bennett and they are averaging a whopping 207 rushing yards per game this season lead by RB Choice.

People who have followed me over the past 6 season know that I have made a fortune being on the right side of the sports books, but this has been a very difficult season for both of us as the chalk players have turned the tide and made some profit this season. There has been very little line movement in this contest, which is odd considering the betting patterns. The line opened at 3.5 at all shops and remains steady at 3.5 and there are some 4 popping out now, and I don?t see it moving off that number. The reason while I classified this line movement as ?odd? is because tracking sites are showing support on Georgia at an incredible 95%, and it is by far the game with the second most action on the board. What?s this mean? This very game will in all likelihood go a far way in determining whether the books have a profitable or unprofitable day on Saturday, and from what I have seen, the books did not do very well the last couple of weeks. So from the start we know we are on the books side?which is always a good thing. Fundamentally, Georgia Tech is actually the better team here despite the home underdog role. They are 8-3 in the stats the season and their offense is yards better then Georgia?s and they have the better defensive unit by nearly 30 yards! Although I concede Georgia is playing well, but this week they could have up to three freshman in their offensive line, which is terrible news against this Georgia tech front 7. Indeed, G.T. leads the country in sacks and tackles for loss, getting pressure from every member of the front seven. Georgia Tech is also 9th in the nation at stopping the run, which is the toughest challenge the Bulldogs have faced all season. Georgia also has the distinction of having to start this game without knowing the fait of next weekend. If Kentucky can beat Tennessee, Georgia would advance to the SEC title game as the Bulldogs (6-2 SEC) still trail Tennessee in the SEC Eastern Division. That?s a huge distraction to say the least. We know that these teams also traditionally play close as the last three contests in this series was determined by a combined 16 points and none of them were by more than a touchdown! That?s fantastic news when we are getting the points. Take the points but you should not need them.

 

[the duke]

BEN BURNS


College Football

MISSOURI (pk or better)

Game: Missouri vs. Kansas Game Time: 11/24/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Missouri Reason: I'm taking the points with MISSOURI. The Jayhawks (11-0) have the better record. However, I feel that the Tigers (10-1) are the better team. Missouri's lone loss came at Oklahoma and I believe that the Jayhawks would have also lost there. Both teams have put up huge points this season. While the Jayhawks 45.8 ppg is slightly better than the Tigers 42.5. However, with this game being played at Arrowhead, a neutral site game, its worth pointing out that the Jayhawks have only averaged 27.7 ppg away from home while the Tigers have averaged 42.6 away from Columbia. Additionally, while the Jayhawks have been held below 20 points twice this season, the Tigers are the only team in the country to score at least 30 points in every game this season. The Tigers crushed the Jayhawks 42-17 last season with Chase Daniel completing 68% of his passes while throwing for 356 yards and four touchdowns. Including that result, which was played exactly one year ago, the Tigers are a profitable 32-19 ATS their last 51 games played in the month of November while the Jayhawks are a money-burning 17-33 ATS during the same stretch. Lool for Daniel to have another big game and for the Tigers to spoil their rival's unbeaten season.

*Big 12 Main Event
MISSOURI



WEST VIRGINA (-20 or better)

Game: Connecticut vs. West Virginia Game Time: 11/24/2007 3:30:00 PM Prediction: West Virginia Reason: I'm laying the points with WEST VIRGINIA. The Huskies have had an excellent year and should be proud of their accomplishments. That being said, they lost their last road game (at Cincinnati) by a score of 27-3. Facing the Mountaineers at Morgantown figures to be even more difficult. The Mountaineers have won all four of their home games this season with three of those victories coming by 25 points or more. The only team to keep close to them here was Louisville, a team capable of putting up big offensive numbers. While solid defensively, the Huskies often have trouble scoring points when away from home. In fact, the three points they managed at Cincinnati marked the 10th time in their past 12 road games in which they scored 17 points or fewer. That will make it tough to keep up as the Mountaineers have scored a minimum of 38 points in six straight home games. In fact, dating back to October of 2005, the Mountaineers have managed to score at least 38 points in 14 of their 15 home games. During that 15 game stretch, they averaged a whopping 43 points per game, just slightly down from the 46.5 they're averaging here this season. The Mountaineers beat the Huskies by 26 points at Connecticut last season after crushing them by 32 points here in 2005. They Mountaineers also won by double-digits when the teams faced each other at Connecticut in 2004, bringing them to 3-0 SU/ATS the past three seasons. While the Huskies have fared well as small underdogs the past few seasons, they haven't performed well when listed as larger underdogs. Over the past few years, they've gone 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS when listed as double-digit underdogs. Motivation certainly won't be a problem for the Mountaineers. A win here will give them their second conference championship in the past three seasons. More importantly, it will keep their hopes at playing in the national title game alive. Those hopes are very much alive after LSU's loss yesterday. Look for the Mountaineers to prove they belong in the big game as they continue their homefield and series domination with a convincing wire-to-wire blowout.

*November NCAA Blowout GOM
WEST VIRGINA



UNDER TCU/SD STATE (47 or better)

Game: TCU vs. San Diego St. Game Time: 11/24/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on TCU and San Diego State to finish UNDER the total. The Aztecs defense certainly isn't among the nation's best. However, the banged-up TCU offense isn't in the best of shape to exploit it. Additionally, coming off an embarrassing defensive effort and still fighting for a 500 record, I expect the home team to give a maximum effort on that side of the ball. Note that the Aztecs have seen the UNDER go a profitable 9-2 since the start of the 2005 season whem coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the TCU defense which has held its last three opponents (one of them BYU) to an average of less than 11 points. After last week's game slipped below the number, the UNDER is now 8-1 the last nine times that TCU was listed as a favorite. The UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 the last six times they were favored by greater than eight points. The Horned Frogs shutout the Aztecs at TCU last season after the teams combined for only 43 points here at Qualcomm Stadium in 2005. That game stayed below the total and I expect this evening's game to do the same.

*Mountain West Conference Total of the Year
UNDER TCU/SD State



GEORGIA TECH (+3) or better

Game: Georgia vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 11/24/2007 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGIA TECH. I wasn't surprised when the Bulldogs beat Kentucky last week as I had used them as one of my selections. However, I expect them to have a much tougher time vs. instate rival Georgia Tech. Last year, the Yellow Jackets played at Georgia and lost by only three points. Note that the Bulldogs returned just 11 starters from last year while the Yellow Jackets returned 15. That was the third straight series meeting decided by a touchdown or less. Chan Gailey's team doesn't always help when trying to cover large pointspreads. However, they typically fare very well in the underdog role, particularly recently. They're already 3-0 ATS when listed as underdogs in 2007, winning outright vs. Miami and Clemson this regular season, while losing by only three (as nine point dogs) vs. West Virginia in their New Year's Day bowl. Gailey desperately wants to win this game as he hasn't beaten Georgia yet. Gailey had this to say about the rivalry: Everybody puts a lot of weight on (rivalry games) and everyone takes a lot of pride in winning them, and it hurts when you lose them. When you don't win, it makes you feel bad and everyone around you feels bad. You live with it for 365 days and you have to go try again the next year." I feel this will be the perfect opportunity for Gailey to "get the monkey off his back." The Yellow Jackets, who have won four of five, are a much better team with star running back Tashard Choice back in the fold and healthy. Choice, who ran for 146 yards and a touchdown against Georgia Tech last season, leads the ACC with 1,176 yards rushing, despite missing some time due to injury. Its no coincidence that the Yellow Jackets only loss in their last five games (and worst loss of the season) came when Choice wasn't in the lineup, vs. Virginia Tech. While the Bulldogs are giving up 26.2 points per game on the road, the Yellow Jackets are allowing only 17.2 at home. Note that the 299 total yards per game which the Yellow Jackets are allowing ranks seventh best in the nation. Behind another solid effort from the defense and a heavy dose of Choice on the offense, look for the Yellow Jackets to score the upset.

*NCAA Non-Conf. GOY
GEORGIA TECH



SAN DIEGO STATE (+10.5 or better)

Game: TCU vs. San Diego St. Game Time: 11/24/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: San Diego St. Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO STATE. Although the Horned Frogs know full well that six wins won't necessarily get them into a bowl, I feel that they'll still suffer a bit of a letdown after earning their sixth win last week. That's particularly likely when facing a team which they crushed last season and with the added distractions surrounding Thanksgiving. Conversely, I expect to see a highly focused and motivated Aztecs squad. Not only will they be looking to bounce back from an ugly loss in their last game but they'll also be looking to avenge an embarrassing 52-0 loss at TCU last season. Note that the Aztecs covered (lost by three as six point dogs) when the teams met here the previous season. Additionally, note that the Aztecs are a profitable 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they were coming off a conference loss. The Horned Frogs are already 0-2 ATS as road favorites this season, losing outright as -8.5 point favorites at Air Force and winning by only two (as six point favorites) at Stanford. The Horned Frogs are dealing with a couple of key offensive injuries at the moment and I expect them to have their hands full vs. this highly motivated home underdog.

SAN DIEGO STATE



SYRACUSE (+17.5 or better)

Game: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Syracuse Game Time: 11/24/2007 7:15:00 PM Prediction: Syracuse Reason: I'm taking the points with SYRACUSE. The Bearcats have obviously had a much better season than the Orange and they'd really like a win to finish the regular season with a victory. That being said, they've already clinched a bowl berth and they've already seen their hopes of a Big East (and National) title disappear. Therefore, I think it may be somewhat difficult to "get up' for today's "lowly" opponent. Syracuse, on the other hand, should be highly motivated to close out the season on a high note. Note that the Orange have won three of their last four home finales. The Bearcats are 4-9 ATS (3-10 SU) their last 13 games played in a dome and I expect them to have their hands full again today.

SYRACUSE

 

[MMST]

ATS LOCK
8 S Carolina
6 Marshall
6 Virginia Tech
5 Kentucky
5 Georgia

Hoops
5 Rhode Island
4 Wisconson
3 St. Louis

ATS FINANCIAL
4 Wake Forest
3 Wisconson
3 Okla St.

Hoops
4 Minnesota
3 California

 

[Jballgame9]

Anyone have Big Al's Rivalry GOY? Thanks.