Saturday

Happy Hippo

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ATS: 149-109-7 (+46.0)
OU: 73-63-2 (+2.4)
ML dogs: 5-11 (+0.6)


Nuggets

I learned something important about this Nuggets team a few days ago, when they traveled on a back to back to Sacramento and pulled out a win and cover. This team is on a mission. They have been playing great teams lately, and in view of their schedule, this game looks like the perfect spot for a letdown from them. Except... one thing. What does it look like, when one of the best teams in the league, a team that plays relentlessly and expertly on their home court, seeks revenge for one of their three home losses this season?

At practice on Friday, George Karl presented his team with the following question:

"'Who are the only three teams to beat us at home this year?' he asked.

Without hesitation, the players answered in unison.

'Miami, Minnesota, Washington.'

'Who are we playing tomorrow?'

'Minnesota.'

When you are tied for the best home record (27-3) in the NBA, the rare setbacks tend to stick in the memory bank.

Two months later, the Nuggets (41-22) have won seven in a row overall and 12 in a row at Pepsi Center. They are determined not to let the T-Wolves catch them sleeping as they make their push for playoff seeding.

'We can?t take them lightly,' Denver point guard Ty Lawson said. 'That?s what we did in the first game. Kevin Love got hurt and we let our guard down. They came in and beat us. We?ve got a chip on our shoulder this time and we?re going to make sure that doesn?t happen again.'"

Barea gave his take on the Nuggets: ?You've got to keep them away from the paint. Make them a half court team and live with it. Run on them on the other end.? The Timberwolves are 27th in the league in transition effectiveness, and the Nuggets defense is 2nd in defending transition. The Wolves are not a fastbreak team, as only 12.39% of their points per game come in transition (as opposed to the Nuggets where 18.57% of their points come in transition). The Wolves are in the bottom ten in guarding the fast break. They are in the bottom half in the league at guarding the paint. Now, with Kirilenko, Pekovic, and Love out of the line up, their interior defense is virtually non-existent. So... good luck Barea. It is nice to talk up your game plan, but you may find it a lot harder to execute.

The thing I love about this team is that they have depth like no other team. I realize the Clippers bench is great, but if the Nuggets bench played the Clippers bench, Nuggets win 8 out of 10. Their backups would beat their starters about 50% of the time. So, there is no drop off in rotation, which is what makes it super tough for teams to hang around for the duration of a whole game. And, if players aren't playing well, they can easily be replaced. This pushes them to play hard every night, and their team chemistry is exactly where it should be at this point in the season.

I think this will be an annihilation tonight. Well, simply put, it will be... Payback, Nuggets style.


Nuggets -14.5 x2
Bucks +3.5
Nets +3


May have more later...


Good luck...
 
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Happy Hippo

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Nets

The Hawks have had a very difficult schedule recently. They returned off a 6 game western conference road trip, had one game at home, then had to travel to Boston where the game went into overtime. Larry Drew on his team?s mood before the Nuggets game: "Tired both physically and mentally. It's been a long road trip. Fatigue does factor into at this point." I don?t think that having only two days rest since the Nuggets game is enough time to recover from their fatigue, especially after an overtime game.

The Hawks depend on a lot of their points to come from beyond the arc (they are third in the league in points per game from threes). Statistically, there is a drop off in three point shooting percentage for unrested teams playing their fifth game in seven days. The Nets are fourth in the league in three point attempts allowed per game, so they should limit the good looks that the Hawks get tonight. The Hawks also struggle to guard the three point line, and while the Nets are not the greatest three point shooting team, they can get hot (reference last night).

The eastern conference playoff race is tight for home court advantage, with only 4.5 games separating the 2 seed from the 7 seed. The Nets currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Hawks. The Hawks are the better team of these two, but if the Nets can hang around for three quarters, I think they should be able to win this game down the stretch. Joe Johnson and Deron Williams both had poor games in their last outing in Atlanta, but I expect that at least one of them will have a big one tonight.


Bucks

Two nights in a row, the Warriors are faced with opponents that present major match up problems for them. The Bucks have been playing great since the acquisition of Redick. I thought it was going to be too much back court for one team, but they have somehow integrated him well into their guard heavy lineup and he seems to take defensive pressure off the other players. Monta Ellis is averaging 25.6 points on 52.6 percent shooting over the last five games, and Jennings has a double-double in each of his last three games, averaging 16.3 points to go along with 16 assists. They are playing really well as a team.

The Warriors put up a good effort against the Rockets for three quarters last night, and then had a horrible fourth quarter offensively. That is what happens when you live and die by the jump shot. The Warriors are 1-5 SU against the Bucks in their last six meetings, and the Bucks have a chance tonight to sweep the season series.

One last thing... pressure.
 
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grindstone

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HH hope all is well congrats last night on the Rockets.Here are three totals I like any thoughts??

Minn/Den U209.5

Hou/PHX U209.5

Milw/GS O211
 
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Happy Hippo

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HH hope all is well congrats last night on the Rockets.Here are three totals I like any thoughts??

Minn/Den U209.5

Hou/PHX U209.5

Milw/GS O211

Thanks grindstone - I was happy to see you liked the Rockets as well last night.

I really don't see Minnesota being able to slow the Nuggets down tonight. They are in the bottom ten in turnovers per game, and the Nuggets thrive off fast break points. I think the Nuggets will score 115+ in this game...so the question is, how few will the Wolves score? I think they will probably score in the 90s, so I think this one might squeak over the total. That said, the Nuggets are 8-1 SU (+16.0) and 2-7 O/U this season when playing at home after their last game went under the total, holding opponents to 90.2 ppg. Playing the Wolves TT under may not be a bad bet.

I feel like you have a much better read on this Suns team than I do. Both of these teams play very fast tempo wise, but the problem with the Suns is that they are not very effective offensively, so many times their points don't reflect their tempo. Rockets games this season do have a slight tendency to go UNDER the total when they are playing on no rest, and on the road this year playing on no rest, their games are 4-8 UNDER. I have no clear read on this total, but after the Rockets good defensive effort last night, I could see them coming out a little loose tonight.

I love the Milwaukee over. The Warriors cannot play defense, and the Bucks love to push the pace. In fact, they play at a faster tempo than the Rockets, and the only team that plays faster is the Nuggets. The Warriors are 13-3-1 O/U this season when playing on no rest. I'm going to wait and see the reffing crew for this game, but I will most likely add this one.

Cheers
 

Happy Hippo

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HH like it got that coming in at 183 only way it goes over is if both teams play at a high pace.

Good, I'll take 183, although I'll be sweating it. But then again, I sweat every time I bet an under, haha.
 

Riems

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Nets

The Hawks have had a very difficult schedule recently. They returned off a 6 game western conference road trip, had one game at home, then had to travel to Boston where the game went into overtime. Larry Drew on his team?s mood before the Nuggets game: "Tired both physically and mentally. It's been a long road trip. Fatigue does factor into at this point." I don?t think that having only two days rest since the Nuggets game is enough time to recover from their fatigue, especially after an overtime game. Since the 2003 season, teams playing at home on no rest after an overtime game are 50-70 SU and 45-74-1 ATS (average line -2.2). Teams playing their fifth game in seven days at home on no rest after a road game are 106-113 SU and 86-131-2 ATS since the 2005 season. Since the 2006 season, teams playing their fifth game in seven days on no rest at home after a road game are 69-77 SU and 51-94-1 ATS when their opponent has rest the next day.

The Hawks depend on a lot of their points to come from beyond the arc (they are third in the league in points per game from threes). Statistically, there is a drop off in three point shooting percentage for unrested teams playing their fifth game in seven days. The Nets are fourth in the league in three point attempts allowed per game, so they should limit the good looks that the Hawks get tonight. The Hawks also struggle to guard the three point line, and while the Nets are not the greatest three point shooting team, they can get hot (reference last night). Teams coming off a road loss where their opponent attempted more than 10 three pointers and made at least 50% of them are 36-34 SU and 26-41-3 ATS (average line -2.7) at home when both they and their opponent are playing on no rest since the 2005 season.

The eastern conference playoff race is tight for home court advantage, with only 4.5 games separating the 2 seed from the 7 seed. The Nets currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Hawks. The Hawks are the better team of these two, but if the Nets can hang around for three quarters, I think they should be able to win this game down the stretch. Joe Johnson and Deron Williams both had poor games in their last outing in Atlanta, but I expect that at least one of them will have a big one tonight.


Bucks

Two nights in a row, the Warriors are faced with opponents that present major match up problems for them. The Bucks have been playing great since the acquisition of Redick. I thought it was going to be too much back court for one team, but they have somehow integrated him well into their guard heavy lineup and he seems to take defensive pressure off the other players. Monta Ellis is averaging 25.6 points on 52.6 percent shooting over the last five games, and Jennings has a double-double in each of his last three games, averaging 16.3 points to go along with 16 assists. They are playing really well as a team. Teams that have won at least four of their last six games are 28-28 SU and 40-14-2 ATS since the 2007 season when they are coming off a road loss and playing on the road as a dog against an unrested opponent. Rested teams that are playing in at least their second game on the road in a non-conference match up against an unrested opponent are 16-6 SU (+6.4 ppg) and 17-4-1 ATS since the 2005 season. In all games, rested teams playing on the road after another road game are 35-33 SU and 44-23-1 ATS against unrested opponents since the 2005 season.

The Warriors put up a good effort against the Rockets for three quarters last night, and then had a horrible fourth quarter offensively. That is what happens when you live and die by the jump shot. Since the 2006 season, teams coming off a loss where they led at the end of the third quarter are 159-194-8 ATS in their next game when playing on no rest. The Warriors are 1-5 SU against the Bucks in their last six meetings, and the Bucks have a chance tonight to sweep the season series.

One last thing... pressure.


I'm a hawks fan but love the nets today.. GL tonight :toast:
 

Happy Hippo

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Thanks guys - thinking about upgrading this Bucks play to a double. I found these two gems ... they just cannot hang with good offensive teams.

The Warriors this season are 1-6 SU (-13 ppg) and 0-7 ATS when playing in a game where the total is 210 or more. Since January, they are 5-16 SU (-7.4) and 6-15 ATS against teams with a winning record. They are 1-11 SU in their last twelve vs. teams with a winning record.



Grindstone - you playing any of those totals? I love the Bucks over, but for some reason just can't bring myself to pull the trigger :shrug:
 

Happy Hippo

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I'm a hawks fan but love the nets today.. GL tonight :toast:

Always good to get a fan's perspective, as you often know more about your team than many others! An article just came up in my twitter feed, and they were talking to Bo Churney of ESPN TrueHoop Affiliate Atlanta Hawks blog HawksHoop, and he had this to say:

"Whenever the Hawks lose a close one to the Celtics, as they did last night, it always seems to carry over for the next couple of games. Despite Horford, Smith, and Teague all having pretty good runs lately, the Hawks have gotten almost nothing in terms of consistent bench production. Once again, injuries have been playing a role in that, but it's going to be hard for a team to win when they have bench guys taking five, six, seven shots and only ending up with three points."

I looked it up, and since the 2005 season, the Hawks are 5-9 SU and 3-11 ATS after losing to the Celtics in the regular season. Hopefully, they have a Boston hangover again tonight!

Cheers
 

hawkeye

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Nice comeback--a veteran pro like you knows how to work the system and to use good management--gl

Whenever you are back here lets us know.
How did the bb season end up? Tell Chad hi.
 

grindstone

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Thanks guys - thinking about upgrading this Bucks play to a double. I found these two gems ... they just cannot hang with good offensive teams.

The Warriors this season are 1-6 SU (-13 ppg) and 0-7 ATS when playing in a game where the total is 210 or more. Since January, they are 5-16 SU (-7.4) and 6-15 ATS against teams with a winning record. They are 1-11 SU in their last twelve vs. teams with a winning record.



Grindstone - you playing any of those totals? I love the Bucks over, but for some reason just can't bring myself to pull the trigger :shrug:


Nothing yet HH sitting on the fence and really not sure,but did play Denv and Milw. I think the only one I would play would be Milw/GS O211, gonna keep watching. GL:popcorn2
 

MadJack

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Nice comeback--a veteran pro like you knows how to work the system and to use good management--gl

Whenever you are back here lets us know.
How did the bb season end up? Tell Chad hi.

:0074
 

Happy Hippo

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Thanks guys.

hawkeye - I will be back in the middle of June. I will email you with exact dates. Would love to see you and your lovely wife while I am there! Basketball season ended up awesome - they had a winning record for the first time in many years, and ended the season 14-12. Last year they were 5-18. They made the regional tourny for the first time in many years. It was a great accomplishment, considering the diluted talent pool. Best news is that there is an amazing player that will be a freshman next year - D1 material, so Chad is super excited about that!

grindstone - let me know if you act on anything else.

Cheers
 

grindstone

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No worries HH will let you know if I pull the trigger, might just wait for primetime games tomorrow.
 
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