Service plays - early tip sheet info

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Inside The Stats Don't bet against a vengeful Nick Saban[/COLOR]
by Marc Lawrence[/B]

Expert Marc Lawrence digs deep into his stats machine to bring you the best betting numbers, trends and records for this week's football action in NCAAF and the NFL.

You killed my team, prepare to die

Alabama?s only loss of the 2012 season occurred at home in a 29-24 setback to Texas A&M.

The question is will the Tide extract their revenge or will the weight of being the defending national champion hold them down?

If you like Nick Saban, you?ll like knowing he shines in games when seeking revenge, going 32-17 SU and ATS in his college career ? including 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points.

Saban is also an eye-opening 20-4 SU and 17-6 ATS in games involving a pair of undefeated teams, including 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS with Alabama.

Granted, the Aggies are a jaw-dropping 35-4 straight up at home in games in which they are undefeated since 1984, but Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 0-6 ATS in his career against .666 or greater foes with revenge.

Remember, it was Gandhi who said, ?An eye for an eye will only make the whole world blind.?

Somehow, we think Nick Saban could care less.

Taking an early blow

In the majority of cases, rest is considered advantageous for most college football teams, especially late in the season.

An extra blow not only helps heal tired bodies but also gives coaches a chance to better study an opponent?s game film in greater detail. However, rested teams during the opening month of the season tend to develop dichotic personalities.

A week of rest right out of the box in a new season can either help or hinder a team ? depending on their previous effort and venue.

In college football, teams in Game 2 playing off a loss with a week of rest are just 58-73 ATS since 1980, including 29-44 ATS when on the road. This week we find Boise State, Navy (away), Southern Miss and UAB (away) in this not-so-desirable role.

On the other side of the coin, college football teams in Game 2 playing off a win with a week of rest are 121-86-4 ATS since 1980, with Oregon State in this role next week.

When playing foes with wobbly defenses (allow 27 or more PPG on the season), these rested winners improve to 40-14 ATS, including 19-4 SU and ATS when playing away. Beware of the Beavers next week.

Phony baloneys

As we commonly allude to in this column, phony football teams manage to wins games on the scoreboard while losing in the stats.

While there wasn?t the usual amount of ?inside-out? wins on the football front last weed, here are teams this week that were last week?s stat winners and losers?

Won the game, lost the stats: Akron, Fresno State, Tennessee and Purdue.

On the flip side, these are teams that lost the game but won the stats: Western Kentucky and Western Michigan.

On the NFL front, last week?s stat winners and losers included:

Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins and the St. Louis Rams ? all won the game but lost the stats.

Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and the Oakland Raiders ? all lost the game but won the stats.

Note: The New York Giants were triple-digit yardage winners, while Akron and Dallas were triple-digit yardage losers.

NFL total discovery

With no-huddle, quicker-pace play, and lots more offensive snaps per game being the new wave in the NFL these days, totals are expected to reach new heights.

Not so during Week 1, however, as over/unders evened out at 8-8 last week.

Interestingly, six of the seven games that did go Over involved the seven teams that had the most offensive plays in their contests, namely: New England, Denver, Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco and Philadelphia ? in that order.

Keep an eye on this evolving trend.

Stat of the Week

Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith is 15-0 ATS in games off a loss of six or more points.[/QUOTE]
 

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Seven Fastest NFL Offenses Go 6-1 'OVER/under' in Week 1[/COLOR][/B]

The Philadelphia Eagles successfully debuted their high-octane offense under new head coach Chip Kelly, taking a 33-27 win over the Washington Redskins Monday night.

The Eagles ran 77 plays on offense and piled up 263 rushing yards on 49 carries ? the most rushing attempts of any team in Week 1. That quick pace helped top the 52-point total but didn?t set the bar for up-tempo offense during the opening week of the season.

The New England Patriots and their hurry-up offense remains the pace setter in the NFL, running 89 plays in a 23-21 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were tops in the league in offensive plays per game in 2012, averaging 74.3, and finished as the best over bet in football at 11-5 O/U.

The Baltimore Ravens were second in plays per game during Week 1 with 87 plays in a 49-27 loss to the Denver Broncos Thursday. The Detroit Lions tied the Eagles for the third-fastest pace with 77 plays, beating the Minnesota Vikings 34-24 Sunday.

Of the top seven teams that ran the most offensive plays in Week 1, all but one ? New England ? played over the total.
Baltimore
Detroit
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Houston
Dallas all topped their respective game?s number.

Here?s a look at the totals for games involving those seven teams in Week 2:

New York Jets at New England Patriots (44)

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (43.5)

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (49.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (44)

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (44.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (46.5)
[/QUOTE]
 

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INSIDER ANGLES

NFL Trends & Angles - Week 2[/B]

Opening Week of the 2013 season in now in the books, and unlike past years, and the underdogs had a slight edge ATS despite favorites going 12-4 straight up, as the dogs ended up 8-7-1 vs. the number. Also there was absolutely no Week 1 edge in totals either way, with the 'over' and 'under' splitting 8-8.

Those results aside, contrarian angles seem to work best in September when lines are the softest because bettors often over-react to results of the previous week, perhaps especially in this Week 2, as it is still early enough where no one knows for certain just how good or bad most teams are.

Also you will notice that we have sections below for Good/Bad Team trends, and as a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively. Good Teams are defined as teams that won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are ones that lost at last 10 of their last 16 games.

Thus, now that we are one game into this 2013 season, the Good/Bad parameters are no longer based on a quick lookup of 2012 records like they were last week since they are based on a rolling set of each team's last 16 games, meaning that this weeks qualifiers are based on their records of the last 15 games of 2012 plus the results last week.

All records presented are for the last 13 years since the 2000 season, and as we will continue to do throughout this month, all of this week's records are for September games only.

All Teams - General Angles

Play against September home favorites coming off a straight up loss (87-55-10, 61.3% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following a loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Qualifiers: St. Louis +7 at Atlanta, Cleveland +6.5 at Baltimore, Washington +7.5 at Green Bay, Jacksonville +5.5 at Oakland and Pittsburgh +7 at Cincinnati (Monday).

Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game (88-55-8, 61.5% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team. Qualifiers: Cleveland +6.5, San Francisco +3, St. Louis +7, Tampa Bay +3, Washington +7.5 and Pittsburgh +7 (Monday).

Play against September home favorites coming off a road game (130-90-13, 59.1% ATS): Bettors often assume that home favorites that were on the road the prior week will automatically improve solely because of now having home field. While that does happen from time to time, this record suggests that home field is actually being overcompensated for in the betting line. Qualifiers: N.Y. Jets +11.5 (Thursday), St. Louis +7, Cleveland +6.5, Washington +7.5, Tennessee +9.5, Dallas +3, Jacksonville +5.5, San Diego +7, San Francisco +3, Pittsburgh +7 (Monday).

Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games

Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (46-30-7, 60.5% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifier: Seattle -3.

Play the 'over' when Good Teams play September division games (76-54-3, 60.2%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important ones. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses and they usually get up for these games, often resulting in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace. Qualifying 'overs': N.Y. Jets at New England (Thursday), Cleveland at Baltimore, Minnesota at Chicago, Tennessee at Houston and San Francisco at Seattle.

Play the 'over' when Good Teams are favored over Bad Teams during September (62-42-1, 59.6%): This is a often a case of a favorite being so much better then its opponent that it can name the score, but there are also occasions where the inferior team gets up for these games early in the year while they still have playoff aspirations just like everybody else. Both of these circumstances usually produce higher scoring games. Qualifying 'overs': N.Y. Jets at New England (Thursday) and Cleveland at Baltimore.

Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games

Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (110-73-10, 60.1% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: N.Y. Jets +11.5 (Thursday), Cleveland +6.5, Jacksonville +5.5 and San Diego +7.

Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (60-35-3, 63.2% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win. Qualifiers: Arizona +1? and Jacksonville +5.5.

Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September (49-24-4, 67.1% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration. Qualifiers: Arizona +1?, Jacksonville +5.5 and San Diego +7.[/QUOTE]
 

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Dave Tuley

Picks Week 2 NFL

Chargers +7.5

Dolphins +3

Redskins +7.5

Cowboys +3

Giants +4.5

Steelers +7 (Monday)


4-2-1 last week.[/QUOTE] This guy was decent in 2012 in the NFL!!


GL!!

:0003
 

WildBillPicks7

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Northcoast Power Sweep: They did horrible last wk, FYI!!

College

4* Kansas
3* Houston
3* Wisconsin
2* Duke
2* USC

5* play which is rare for them, goes this weekend.

Computer plays: Duke, Penn St, Maryland, Hawaii, USC, Fla ATL

Underdog of Wk: Fla Atl

Situational: San Diego St

Tech play: Wisky

Revenge: Arkansas (No line yet vs Rutgers)

NFL

4* Green Bay
3* Atlana
2* NY Giants

System: Atlanta

Angle plays: Atlanta, SF, NYG

Totals:

3* Over Car/NYG
3* Under Buf/NJ
3* Over AZ/NO
2* Over Indy/SF
2* Under Det/Wash


GL!

:0008
 

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Winning Points

Winning Points

If you don't subscribe to Winning Points, supposedly they are on fire and lead the nation in tip sheets, leading in college units won and college plays % won.

Gold Sheet started out hot last year and they are cold as ice this year, Power Sweep is ok on the year, but had their worst wk last wk in a long time.

Power Plays is also part of Northcoast/Power Sweep, they are doing marginal as well.

I don't subscribe to any of the tip sheets as I had in the past. Only ones I've purchased in last two years are Playbook, Gold Sheet and Sports Reporter but did not renew any of them.

The totals sheet that, King Creole, Victor King puts out is supposedly a hot item when it comes to playing totals.

GL!
 

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From Mark Lawrence - Playbook

College Football 2-MINUTE HANDICAP
Posted: 09/16/2013



WEEK 4
Thursday, Sep 19th
Clemson 6-0 vs conf revenge... 5-0 as RF's > 7 pts... 4-0 in 1st RG... 5-2 on Weekdays
NC STATE SERIES: 3-0 L3... 9-0 w/ conf revenge... 3-0 in 3rd straight HG... 4-1 Weekday HG... 1-4 Game Three home

Friday, Sep 20th
Boise St 5-1 Weekday RG... 4-1 as favs/dogs 3 < pts... 0-2 Game Four... 2-11 vs conf revenge
FRESNO ST 3-0 Game Four... 3-0 aft Pac 12 opp... 4-1 w/ conf revenge... 4-1 as favs/dogs 3 < pts... 1-5 Weekdays

Saturday, Sep 21st
N Texas 3-1 L4 vs SEC... 3-1 as dogs 28 > pts... 1-5 in 1st of BB RG... 2-8 Game Four
GEORGIA 7-3 off DD conf home win... 3-1 in 2nd of 3 straight HG... 1-5 w/ rest... 1-5 as favs 31 > pts... 1-3 Game Three

Florida Intl SERIES: 2-0 L2... 4-1 in 1st of BB RG... 6-2 vs Big East... 1-4 as dogs 35 > pts... 1-3 Game Four
LOUISVLLE 6-1 home vs Conf USA... 0-3 aft Kentucky... 1-5 Game Four... 1-4 as favs 29 > pts

Tennessee 3-1 off SU road loss 14 > pts... 1-5 as conf RD's 10 < pts... 1-3 Game Four... 1-3 in 2nd of BB RG
FLORIDA SERIES: 6-2 L8 / 3-1 H... 5-1-1 w/ rest... 4-1-1 Game Three... 8-3 as HF's 10 < pts... 1-5 off SU road fav loss

Michigan 3-0 off 3 straight HG... 4-2 bef Minn... 0-8 as non-conf RF's... 0-4 Game Four away... 2-5 vs Big East
CONNECTICUT 6-2 as HD's 6 > pts... 3-1-1 in 2nd of BB HG... 10-3 as DD non-conf dogs... 0-6 bef Buffalo... 1-4 Game Three home

Purdue 7-3 as conf RD's 17 > pts... 1-5 away bef BB HG... 1-4 Game Four... 2-6 w/ conf revenge... 2-5 aft N Dame
WISCONSIN SERIES: 7-0 L7 / 3-0 H... 5-0 as conf HF's 17 > pts... 3-1 in 1st conf gm... 3-1 bef RG vs Ohio St... 1-3 Game Four... 2-6 aft Pac 12 opp

La-Monroe 1-4 dogs in 2nd of BB RG... 3-11 Game Four... 2-5 away vs Big 12
BAYLOR 5-1 as favs 21 > pts... 5-1 home off SU win 28 > pts... 3-1 in 3rd straight HG... 6-2 Game Three... 1-4 w/ rest

Smu 4-0 w/ rest... 3-1 in 1st of BB RG... 1-5 bef TCU... 1-5 Game Three away... 3-8 as RD's 21 > pts
TEXAS A&M SERIES: 3-0 L3... 3-0-1 home off SU conf home loss... 1-5-1 vs opp w/ rest... 1-5 Game Four... 1-4 as favs 16 > pts in 3rd straight HG

Michigan St 5-0 in 1st of BB RG... 4-0 as non-conf dogs 7 > pts... 4-1 off 3 straight HG... 6-2 Game Four... 1-3 bef Iowa
NOTRE DAME SERIES: 3-0 L3... 8-3 aft Purdue... 2-13-1 as HF's 13 < pts... 1-3 Game Four... 3-14 home vs opp w/ rev

Kansas St SERIES: 8-1 L9 / 4-0 A... 6-0 as conf dogs 6 < pts... 3-0 in 1st RG... 3-0 Game Four dogs... 4-1-1 in 1st of BB RG... 3-1 bef Okla St
TEXAS 5-0 bef Iowa St... 5-1 Game Four... 3-1 in 2nd of BB HG... 6-2 as conf HF's 6 < pts... 2-7 w/ conf revenge

Colorado St 3-1 L4 vs SEC... 8-3-1 Game Four... 5-2 bef UTEP... 0-5 as non-conf dfogs 21 > pts
ALABAMA 4-1 Game Three... 0-3 as favs 35 > pts... 1-4 in 1st of 3+ HG... 2-5 bef Miss

Arizona St SERIES: 4-1 L5... 3-1-1 Game Three away... 6-2-1 in 1st RG... 2-10-1 as conf RD's 8 > pts... 2-5 bef USC
STANFORD 5-0 in 1st conf gm... 4-0 Game Three... 6-2 home off SU road win 14 > pts... 2-8 bef Wash St

Auburn 0-3 away off 3+ HG... 1-7 away w/ conf rev... 1-4 aft Miss St... 4-9 Game Four
LSU SERIES: Host 4-0... 4-1-1 in 1st conf gm... 1-7 as conf HF's 15 > pts... 1-5 Game Four... 2-7 in 3rd straight HG
 

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RAS

CFB SIDES WEEK 4
Syracuse -13
Kansas -9
Memphis +7
Maryland -4[/B]

They did poorly last wk!![/QUOTE]

TOTALS

#371 -[/B] idaho - OVER 57

#333 - unc - OVER 59

#325 - ball state - OVER 55

#311 - w mich - UNDER 49

#349 - usc - UNDER 51

Added

#331 - cincy - UNDER 55.5

#347 - hawaii - OVER 55

#385 - utep - OVER 59

#343 - baylor - OVER 73.5[/QUOTE]
 
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