Service Plays For 12/16/07

[the duke]

Scott Sprietzer

NFL 25* Conf. Underdog of the Year! (*21-9, 70%)

Carolina Panthers

I'm taking the points with the Panthers, my NFC Dog of the Year. Sometimes we come across incredibly strong situations when handicapping the NFL card. This is the best I've seen all season for a team getting this many points. First of all, the Seahawks are in the tough spot of playing in an east coast early kickoff. More importantly, they're off a win over Arizona that wrapped up the division title last week, and realistically they have nothing more to shoot for. Thirdly, the Panthers, although likely out of a postseason berth, still think they have a shot to make the playoffs and fully understand that it's now or never for them. Vinny Testeverde is listed as probable, with Matt Moore and David Carr also available. No matter who gets the majority of the reps, this Carolina team knows they can handle the weak NFC West. After all, the Panthers are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against Seattle's division mates. They whipped the Cardinals, 25-10, and knocked off St. Louis, 27-13. In fact, just two weeks ago, in the middle of a cold streak, Carolina was still good enough to crush the NFC West 49ers, 31-14. Now, they face a slightly disinterested Seahawks' team who's only impressive road win came against those Niners. Seattle lost at Arizona, got shutout at Pittsburgh, lost at Cleveland, and barely escaped at St. Louis and Philly. Not exactly a solid resume for laying more than a TD away from home. As far as the matchups are concerned, WR Steve Smith will finally go against a defense that doesn't double-team. He's been doubled almost all season and I believe he'll make the most of his matchup against a good, but inconsistent Marcus Trufant. Seattle also likes to gamble up front, pinning their ears back play-after-play. Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams can burn this defense with his speed. And, I expect to see plenty of screens to counter the Seattle pass rush. Look for Carolina to surprise the NFC West champs. I'm taking the points with the Panthers, my NFC Dog of the Year.

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness


My 20* NFL Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. I predicted at the beginning of the year that the Jags would be a playoff team and at 9-4 SU and ATS through 13 games, my pick looks good. Del Rio's decision to go with Garrard over Leftwich at QB has been justified, as Garrard has posted a 103.3 QB rating with a 13-1 ratio! The running game took a while to get going but Taylor has topped 100 yards in three straight (he's averaging over 7.0 YPC in those games!) and Jones-Drew is always there if needed. The pass D has been just so-so but the rush D, after allowing 282 yards in Week 1, has allowed just 77.3 YPG the last 12! However, if you think I'm going with the Jags, I'm NOT! Garrard can't throw downfield and his WRs are very average. Defensively, LB Peterson is likely out for the year, DE Hayward (the team's best pass rusher) is questionable and DT Stroud (the team's BEST player!) has just been placed on IR (returned from a four-game suspension LW but got hurt!). As for Pittsburgh, FORGET the New England game! Prior to the Pats, Pittsburgh ranked No. 1 in scoring D, total D (No. 1 in pass / No. 2 in rush) and not much has changed! The rush D allows 72.6 YPG (3.6 per and just 3 TDs!) and the pass D allows 172.8 YPG with a league-best 54.8%! Big Ben is having an excellent year, while Willie Parker is now the NFL leader in rushing (league-high seven 100-plus games). RB Davenport can block, catch and convert on short-yardage. Ward leads a receiving corps that will have little trouble with the Jags' mediocre pass D (allows 60 YPG more than Pitt's does). Other than the Pats, the Steelers are the only other unbeaten home team (7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS). They only have a one game lead over the Browns in the AFC North and although their final two games are against the Rams and Ravens (a combined 7-19), the Steelers have played so poorly on the road, I believe they'll be highly focused for their final home game. The Steelers ate some "humble pie" last week but this Sunday, Pittsburgh will have to respond to their "doubters." After two consecutive three-point wins, the Pats "answered all questions" vs the Steelers. I believe Pittsburgh will do like-wise here. Big Ben has been outstanding at home, completing 71.0% with a 12-5 ratio and a QB rating of 105.5. The Steelers edged the Browns by three points and also beat Miami just 3-0 but that was in a downpour. In Pittsburgh's other five home games, the margins have been 23, 21, 21, 31 and 14! Pitt will also remember last year's Week 2 loss (MNF) at Jacksonville 9-0, when Big Ben was making his first appearance after his motorcycle accident (141 YP / 0-2 ratio). The Jags are in the "wrong place at the wrong time!"

NFL Game of the Year
20* Pittsburgh Steelers



My Las Vegas Insider is on Az/NO Over at 1:00 ET. Both teams are 6-7 and still have a shot at that final wild card spot, currently held by 7-6 Minnesota. However, DO NOT expect these teams to play this game, "tight to the vest!" The Saints rush for a pathetic 90.5 YPG (3.7 per) and no longer have either Deuce or Reggie in the backfield. The Cards rush for even less yards, at 88.3 YPG (3.6 per). The Cardinals have a good chance of getting Boldin back this week and with Fitzgerald having an excellent season, Warner should have few troubles moving the ball (and scoring POINTS!) against the Saints' somewhat sad pass D (252.3 YPG / 23-11 ratio). As for New Orleans, why would they want to run? The Cards' D has been decimated by injuries and has allowed 32.8 PPG over the last four weeks. The team's best defensive player is out for the year (safety Wilson), as is CB Green and both pass-rushing DEs, Berry and Okeafor! Drew Brees was terrible as the Saints opened 0-4 (12.8 PPG), with one TDP and nine INTs! However, the last nine games (Saints are 6-3 while averaging 27.7 PPG!), he's completing 70 percent, has 22 TDPs with just six INTs and is averaging 286.1 YPG through the air. In the perfect conditions of the Superdome, this game could/should reach 70 points!

Las Vegas Insider
Az/NO Over

 

[the duke]

Pointwise NFL Phones

3* Green Bay
3* Seattle
3* Minnesota

2* NYG
2* Indy
2* Buffalo
2* Miami
2* Jets

 

[goldengreek]

Point Train

10-UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Rating: 10 units

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Jacksonville (+) over PITTSBURGH at 1:00 pm EST It?s being referred to as the New England Hangover. Teams coming off a loss to the Patriots are just 4-8 in the following game, with three of those four wins coming against the Jets and Dolphins, who are a combined 3-23 on the season. The Jaguars are no Jets or Dolphins. The last three New England opponents ? Buffalo, Philadelphia and Baltimore ? have all lost their following games, and by an average of 16.7 ppg. The Steelers will suffer the same fate in this game. Jacksonville has flown under the radar this season with New England and Indianapolis taking up a majority of the AFC headlines. But the Jags are sitting at 9-4 (9-4 ATS) this year and have won four of their last five games, with the only loss during that stretch coming on the road at Indy and by just a field goal. They have been very good on the road this year, going 4-2 (5-1 ATS) on the season. Those five covers have come by 9.8 ppg. A major key to Jacksonville?s success has been its efficiency on offense. The Jags don?t score the most or put up the most yards but they chew up clock and take care of the ball. They are seventh in the NFL with a plus-8 turnover margin, due in large part to quarterback David Garrard?s miniscule one total turnover this year. Behind the league?s second-ranked rush offense, Jacksonville is third in the league in time of possession. The Jags average 143.6 ypg on the ground with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew providing a solid 1-2 punch. Jacksonville?s 5th-ranked rush defense should be able to contain Pittsburgh?s vaunted running game. Despite a solid showing last week against New England, running back Willie Parker, who leads the NFL in carries, is starting to show signs of slowing down. He is averaging just 3.6 ypc over his last four games and will have his work cut out for him against the physical Jaguar defense. The Jaguars showed what they could do against Pittsburgh last year, limiting the Steelers to just 153 total yards, including just 26 on the ground, in a 9-0 win. There will probably be more points scored in this year?s meeting but that won?t change the final outcome. Jacksonville has covered each of the last four meetings with Pittsburgh and will do the same in this one. Ride with the Jags in Point Train?s 10-Unit NFL Game of the Year!


NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Rating: 3 units

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Buffalo (+) over CLEVELAND at 1:00 pm EST This is a very unusual spot for the Browns as they haven?t been favored by this much since 2003. As a matter of fact, Cleveland has been a favorite of 6 points or more just four times since reentering the league. With playoff pressure on the line and another potential playoff team in town, the Browns will have a tough time clearing the 5-point spread. The visiting Bills have surprised everyone this year in going 7-6 (8-4-1 ATS) on the season and currently sit just one game behind Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Buffalo has covered nine straight games as an underdog of a six points or less. The Bills may not be the most talented team but they play hard every weekend. Their offense is improving each week under rookie QB Trent Edwards and it should have no problem scoring against Cleveland?s defense, which is ranked among the worst in the NFL. Ride with the Bills.


NFL SUNDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

Washington Redskins (+4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Rating: 3 units

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Washington (+) over NY GIANTS at 8:15 pm EST The Redskins have been playing in close games all season and this NFC East battle with the rival Giants will be no different. Eleven of Washington?s 13 games have been decided by single digits with only one of its seven losses coming by more than eight points. The Redskins may not win this game outright but you can be sure they?ll take it down to the final whistle. Backup QB Todd Collins will be making his first start since the 1997 season in this game but don?t let that fool you. Collins knows the Washington offense better than anyone as he?s been running it for years, either in Washington or Kansas City. He proved his worth last week in relief of Jason Campbell, completing 75% of his passes for 224 yards and two TDs. The Giants have had teams scorch them through the air this season and the Redskins are capable of doing the same. New York QB Eli Manning appears to be falling into the second-half swoon that has plagued him throughout his career. He has completed just 50% of his passes with six INTS and just two TDs over his last three games. He also may not have much of a running game behind him. Starter Brandon Jacobs is nursing a bad hammy while primary backup Derrick Ward is on the injury list with a leg issue. The Redskins are 6th in the NFL with just 94.6 rushing yards allowed per game and won?t allow the Giant running attack to get going. The Giants have struggled at home this year, going just 3-3 (3-3 ATS) on the season. Additionally, they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games as the favorite and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Expect Collins to lead the Redskins deep into the game, taking this one down to the wire. Ride with Washington.

 

[the duke]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

BEST BETS


5★ BEST BET
MINNESOTA over Chicago by 20

Dont look now, Martha, but here come the Vikings. Given up for
lost at 2-5, theyve stormed their way in to playoff contention.
In an earlier meeting this season, Minnesota edged Ithe Bears
in Chicago, 34-31. Da Bears enter tonights contest 14-25 SUATS
on Mondays since 1980, including 1-10 ATS versus an opponent
off a SUATS win. Minny counters at 6-1 ATS under the Monday
Night lights off a win when going into revenge. Oh yeah, our
AWESOME ANGLE (see page 2) confi rms the fact that the Bears
are off into early hibernation. Enough said. Just do it!


4★ BEST BET
Jacksonville over PITTSBURGH by 7

NFL games during the final four games of the season involving
.666 or better teams squaring off against one another have
seen the road dog bring home the bacon 62% of the time.
Better yet, if they beat their home favored opponent in the
most recent meeting, they are 19-9 ATS. Toss in Jack Del Rios
glossy 13-7 ATS record as a dog versus .700 or better opposition
and it certainly instills confidence. With favorites just 8-22 ATS
in games after tackling the Patriots, and Pitt shell-shocked off
last weeks disappointing effort at New England, look for the
Jags to pounce on this opportunity.


3★ BEST BET
Washington over NY GIANTS by 6

G-Men came up big again last week while the Redskins overcame
the melodrama of the Sean Taylor saga to get past the Bears last
Thursday. The Skins are 8-1 ATS with revenge against a division
foe off a win when their record is below .500. And dont forget
Joe Gibbs? 28-15-1 ATS mark as a dog down the stretch during
the final four games of the season, including 19-7 when taking
more than 3 points. Until the RIP officially goes up, well race to
the wire with Gibbs team.


THE REST

Arizona over NEW ORLEANS by 2

As the King once said, its Now or Never for each of these wannabes.
The Saints have never been any good when hosting a foe off an
away game, just 11-28 SUATS. And the anointed ones turn dastardly
in games after performing on Mondays, as they are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS
in these follow-up affairs. Prefer the Redbirds' smart 6-2 ATS dog
log under first year skipper Ken Whisenhunt.


Indianapolis over OAKLAND by 11

After back-to-back upset wins, Oakland showed its true colors in a
38-7 no-show loss at Green Bay last week. It?s back home where they
take on the Super Bowl champs knowing the SU loser in Raiders?
Game Fourteen matchups is 1-16 ATS. Yech. They?re also 1-94-1 ATS
in their last 96 straight-up home losses. We don't want any of that!


SAN DIEGO over Detroit by 10

The Chargers stormed back to outscore the Titans 20-0 from the 4Q
out to win in overtime while the Lions choked like Grandma Heimlich
in handing the Cowboys a gift-wrapped one-point victory. Don?t
know about you but we think Norv Turner?s task will be an easier one
than Rod Marinelli?s this week. Problem is laying points with Turner
in one of his worst roles (he has many): 10-20 ATS as a favorite of 5 or
more points, including 4-13 ATS from Game Eight out. Pass.


DALLAS over Philadelphia by 8

Another matchup of two teams off down-to-the wire finishes, this time
a division rematch from earlier this year when the Cowboys fl attended
Philly, 38-17. It marked the 2nd worst division loss ever suffered by
Andy Reid, who remains tough when avenging division defeats (18-8-
1 ATS, including 11-2 away). However, Dallas is battling for home fi eld
advantage while the Eagles are just battling a case of the lumps.


TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 8

The sight of the Pirate ship normally finds the Bucs in a rapacious
mood... except at this stage of the season. Thats because Chucky
returns home in a not-so-comfortable down the stretch role where,
during his NFL career as a head coach, he is 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS when
hosting a .666 or less opponent, including 0-4 ATS when off a loss
during the f nal four weeks of the season. Don?t forget, in a 31-7
win over the Falcons a month ago, Tampa out gained Atlanta by a
305-275 margin. Be careful here, mate.


Baltimore over MIAMI by 4

After fending off attacks from the likes of Black Bart and Wild Bill
Hitchcock the past two weeks, the Ravens welcome the sight of Pee
Wee Herman this week. Miamis water-pistol offense has averaged
a mere 9.5 PPG since Halloween, helping make every NFL defensive
coordinator sleep better these days. Baltimores 10-1 ATS mark as
non-division road chalk of 5 or less points could have us reaching for
our Smith & Wesson as you read this.


CLEVELAND over Buffalo by 6

Both teams come in off solid wins but they bring nothing but bad
ATS numbers to today's game. The Browns are a money-burning 0-9
at home in December taking on a non-division foe while Buffalo
has dropped eight straight taking points after a Miami game. The
deeper we dig, the worse it gets... better to look elsewhere.


ST. LOUIS over Green Bay by 1

The Rams' recent turnaround has been a pleasant surprise and were
not about to pull the rug just yet. They beat the Packers last year in
Green Bay (as 2.5 point favs) and are a rather robust 13-3 SU & 11-5
ATS home from Games 13-16 since 1998, including 8-2 ATS versus an
opponent off a win. Yes, we?re feeling a bit Ram-bunctious again
here today.


NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets by 24

Another 20-point dog rears its head today, this one with 38-14
same-season revenge. That win moved the Pats mark against the
Jets to 6-1 ATS in this series. It also improved the road teams record
to 15-2 ATS in this series since 1999. While we?re never in a hurry to
lay double sawbucks we?d probably serve ourselves well to recall
that it was Eric Mangini, a former Bill Belichick assistant, who spilled
t he beans on his ex-boss about Spygate.


Seattle over CAROLINA by 4

Panthers let us down with a no-show performance last week in
Jacksonville while the Seahawks were busy wrapping up the NFC
West title with a decisive win over Arizona. With that we note this
hungry home dog is 7-0 ATS with revenge off a double-digit ATS
loss while Seattle is 0-5 ATS as road favorites of more than 4 points
off back-to-back wins if the last win was by 10 or more points. Hold
your nose and grab the points.


KANSAS CITY over Tennessee by 1

The Chiefs are falling faster than the Dow Jones, having dropped
each of their last five games as they prepare for their final home
game of the 2007 season. LHGs have served Kansas City well,
evidenced by a 17-7-2 ATS mark, including 7-0 SUATS after allowing
30 or more points in its previous game and 5-0 SUATS as dogs.
Meanwhile, the Titans must try to get it back up after last weeks
4Q (and overtime) collapse against the Chargers. It might prove to
be a tough task in the Tee pee today.

 

[the duke]

DOC

3 Unit Play. #8 Take Cleveland -5 ? over Buffalo (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) Nobody would have guessed that this game would have great playoff implications but that is exactly what has developed. The Browns have been dominating as a favorite, covering 12 of their last 15 games. The have a solid QB in Anderson and the same thing cannot be said for Buffalo, as they have alternated quarterbacks all season long. The Browns have made a living all season long beating the teams that they are supposed to beat and playing Buffalo at home certainly falls under that category. The Bills pounded Miami last week, but they will face a team will a powerful offense on Sunday. The Browns continue to light up the scoreboard and all but wrap up the sixth seed in the AFC. Cleveland 27, Buffalo 17.

4 Unit Play. #16 Take New Orleans -3 ? over Arizona (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) I have to admit that this line surprises me a little bit, as both teams are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. Arizona has never been a good road team and the Saints are starting to put it together after a tough start to open the season. The Saints should be on a three-game winning streak for it not for a horrible play call against Tampa Bay two weeks ago. But they have put that botched play behind them and took out their frustration on Atlanta last Monday Night. The Cardinals have lost two of their last three games including a home loss against San Francisco. They have just one road victory on the season and that will not be enough to keep this game close. New Orleans 28, Arizona 17.

3 Unit Play. #28 Take San Diego -10 over Detroit (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) After a hot start to the season, Detroit has finally realized who they are and thrown in the towel on this season, losing five straight. That includes a heartbreaker to Dallas last week in which they dominated for 58 minutes only to lose it at the end, when the defense could not fall on a fumble. San Diego can clinch the AFC West with a victory, so expect them to come out firing after an emotional win last week @ Tennessee. Detroit does not have the defense to stop San Diego and thus expect the Chargers to light up the scoreboard. This will be a high scoring game that San Diego pulls away from late and thus ends the season for the Lions in regards to their playoff hopes.

 

[goldengreek]

Northcoast Infomercial

Monday

Early Bird POW

Seattle -7

Tuesday

Underdog POW

Jax

Thursday

Economy Club

Green Bay -9.5

Saturday

Totals POW

Tampa Bay under 39











MTi?s 5-Stars go 2-0!!
Now 7-1 Last Eight!!

MTi?s OU Play of the Week!!

5-Star Atlanta at Tampa Bay UNDER 39 ? Bobby Petrino quit
after last week?s Monday Night loss to the New Orleans. Emmitt
Thomas, the Falcons? secondary coach will step in as the interim head
coach. We expect him to be very conservative in his first game as a
head coach in the NFL. We expect his defense to rally around him
and make it very tough for Tampa to put points on the board.
Looking at Atlanta?s team trends we find that they are 0-10 OU
as a road dog versus any team with more wins after playing at home,
staying under by an average of 7.0 ppg. Also, the Falcons? have allowed
more points than expected for three straight weeks and this
points to the UNDER. Atlanta is 0-6 OU on the road when they
have had a positive Delta Points Allowed (DPA) in each of their last
three games.
The Buccaneers will play VERY conservatively in this one. They
will feature their defense and their rushing game. Gruden only opens
it up vs a tough teams. When a team is losing, he calls a conservative
game. In fact, Tampa Bay is 0-9 OU (-9.6 ppg) at home when their
opponent is off two 7+ losses and 0-7 OU (-10.8 ppg) as a 7+ favorite
when they are off a straight up loss.
In addition, Tampa Bay plays to the UNDER when they get a passing team, as they are 0-7 OU (-8.2 ppg) as a home favorite when
their opponent?s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is
fewer than 25.
Last week, the Bucs lost 28-14 to the Texans allowing Sage Rosenfels
to throw three TD passes and allowing the Texans to convert 10 of 17
third downs. We look for the Bucs? defense to be pumped here. Tampa
Bay is 0-7 OU (-10.6 ppg) after a road game in which they allowed
their opponent to convert at least 50% of their third down attempts.
This trend is featured on the bottom of the facing page. Finally, the
Falcons are 0-7 OU on the road after a home loss after converting less
than 33% of their third downs. Let?s take this one UNDER.
MTi?s FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 13 Atlanta 10





MTi?s Side Play of the Week!!

4-Star ST LOUIS +10 over Green Bay ? The Raiders didn?t offer
the Packers much resistance last week. They committed three
turnovers and moved the chains only ten times. Green Bay was running
clock for most of the game, attempting only 23 passes while
running the ball 36 times. These data point to a play against Green
Bay this week.
As a whole, the league is 0-17 ATS (-10.4 ppg) as a road 7+ favorite
on Sunday when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won
by double-digits last week at home as a TD+ favorite, as long as they
didn?t pass for more then 310 yards.
This trend makes a lot of sense, teams off easy wins get a lot of
play from the betting public and can be over-confident and even
lackadaisical as a big favorite for the second straight week.
Complementing this trend beautifully is the fact that the Packers
themselves are 0-11 ATS as a favorite of more than a TD when they
were a TD+ favorite last week, failing to cover by an average of 7.4
ppg.
A second league-wide, multi-season system that indicates a play
against the Packers reads, ?The League is 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) as a
road 7+ favorite the week after a straight up win at home as a TD+
favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their
season-to-date average. This system is related to the first but specifically
targets a team that did not attempt a lot of passes in their win
last week. This, evidently, can cause a team to get out-of-synch with
their passing game, which is certainly understandable.
A third, league-wide, multi-season system that points to a play
against the Packers is, ?The league is 0-14 ATS as a road favorite by
less than two TDs when they won by 21+ points last week against a
non-divisional opponent.? This system has produced six winners this
season, with three of the six road favorites losing outright.
We also have the fact that Green Bay is 0-9 ATS (-12.3 ppg) as a
road favorite when they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their
season-to-date average at home last week and 0-7 ATS (-6.4 ppg) as
a 7+ favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week
than their season-to-date average.
Green Bay has a game in Chicago next week, which is a revenge
game for their first loss of the season. They will be happy with any
W here. The Rams should get Marc Bulger back, after missing two
weeks with a concussion and should score enough to stay within this
number.
MTi?s FORECAST: Green Bay 20 ST LOUIS 17






MTi?s Teaser Play of the Week
To start this week?s Three-Teamer, we?ll use the Bears who are 21-0
ATSp10 vs a divisional opponent before playing at home against
a divisional opponent. We expect the Vikings to play conservatively
and this should allow the Bears to stay within 20 points of them.
Next, we?ll add the Saints, who are 26-0 ATSp10 when they were
up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week, as
long as they are not laying more than 9 points.
Finally we?ll take the total in the Colts - Raiders game down ten
points and take the OVER. The relevant trend is, ?The Colts are 28-
0 OUm10 on the road when they have had a positive DPA in each
of their last two games.That makes our 3-team, 10-point teaser for
this week:
4-Star Chicago +20, New Orleans +6?, Indianapolis OVER 35

 

[the duke]

WINNING POINTS

NFL

****BEST BET
*Pittsburgh over Jacksonville by 24
Pittsburgh losing big to New England by 21 points last week helped lower
the betting line for this matchup. It?s set up a nice spot to get value and
back Pittsburgh.The Patriots are not part of this world so throw last week?s
34-13 result out. Do that and the Steelers look real good for this matchup.
Consider before the Patriots game, Pittsburgh ranked No. 1 in scoring
defense, allowing less than 13 points.They also were No. 1 in total defense,
while ranking first in pass defense and second in run defense. Jacksonville
has a solid defense, but it can?t match those statistics.The Jaguars have been
cripple-shooting going 5-1 against non-winning clubs.The Jaguars also have
several key defensive injuries. Out are middle linebacker Mike Peterson,
pass rusher Reggie Hayward and probably tackle Marcus Stroud (check status),
who was injured last Sunday after returning from a four-game suspension.
Losing Stroud impacts Jacksonville?s run defense.Willie Parker can
take advantage. It also makes Ben Roethlisberger?s play-action fakes more
effective. Pittsburgh entered its matchup against New England allowing
only one pass of more than 40 yards. It?s a plus if star safety Troy Polamalu
can suit up after missing the past three games. The Jaguars are a run-oriented
club.They don?t throw many downfield passes with David Garrard
and his mediocre wide receivers. Fred Taylor is running well. He?s rushed
for 340 yards the last three weeks. But he and Maurice Jones-Drew are
going to find the running treacherous at Heinz Field, especially if there?s
bad weather. Unlike the warm-weather Jaguars, the Steelers don?t mind
winter conditions. They are 7-0 SU at home this season, 5-2 ATS. They?ve
won by at least three touchdowns at home

***BEST BET
*Kansas City over Tennessee by 13
Chasing a wildcard spot, the Titans have been overpriced by the oddsmaker.
Tennessee is much more enticing when it is taking points rather than
being in the role of a favorite.The Titans are 3-4 ATS this season as chalk.
The Titans also are in the midst of four losses in their last five games.They
are off a very physical overtime home loss to San Diego. Games like that
not only take a physical toll, but a mental one as well. Several Titans got
banged up, including left guard Jacob Bell (check status). The Titans are
being asked to cover as a mid-sized road favorite at Arrowhead Stadium,one
of the toughest road venues in the NFL.The Chiefs have won and covered
four of the past six times they?ve received points at Arrowhead Stadium. It?s
Kansas City?s final home game of the season. So expect a supreme effort
from Kansas City, especially after the Chiefs laid an egg last week in a
shockingly inept performance against Denver.The Broncos humiliated the
Chiefs, 41-7.The Chiefs? defense let them down.Kansas City?s strength is its
defense. Defensive end Jared Allen has become a dominant two-way player.
Tamba Hali can rush the passer.The two have a combined 17 _ sacks.The
linebackers are good, too.Vince Young is still learning the passing game.He
has a horrific 7-to-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. There?s an outside
chance that Larry Johnson could return to the Chiefs? lineup. He?s missed
the past five games with a foot injury.The Chiefs have a young backfield,
but there?s talent at the skill positions. Quarterback Brodie Croyle has a big
arm, tailback Kolby Smith averaged 116.5 yards during his first two starts
and lead wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is a big, imposing target.All Pro tight
end Tony Gonzalez is having another


**PREFERRED

*San Diego over Detroit by 22
Jon Kitna isn?t exactly Nostradamus when it comes to predictions. Kitna
would have been more accurate if he would have said the Lions would lose
10 games rather than win 10 games. That?s the direction Detroit is going
having lost five in a row.Things are only going to get worse for the Lions
this week following their morale-sinking blown home lead last Sunday
against Dallas. Now the Lions go on the road to face one of the better AFC
teams, San Diego. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and ATS at home this season.
They have won four of their past five matchups. Detroit is 1-4 SU and ATS
on the road this year.The Lions have been outscored by an average score
of 34-14 away from Ford Field. Kitna is beat-up. His offensive line has yielded
51 sacks. Shawne Merriman is coming on after a slow start. He?s recorded
six sacks during the past three games. San Diego?s improved its run
defense.That?s not good news for a Detroit ground game that?s mostly been
dormant with such awful performances as a minus 18-yard rush effort versus
Arizona, 23 yards rushing against Minnesota and 25 yards on the ground
versus the Giants. Don?t forget the Lions are without their best pass receiver,
Roy Williams. The Lions haven?t had a winning season since 2000.
Nothing has changed SAN DIEGO 32-10.

**PREFERRED
Green Bay over *St. Louis by 21
The gap between good and bad teams this year in the NFL is much stronger
than in previous seasons.The Packers are definitely a ?have? team.They are
back clicking on all cylinders with the return of punt returner Will
Blackmon pumping up the special teams. Green Bay?s defense remains
solid and its offense has become balanced with the emergence of Ryan
Grant, who has rushed for 558 yards and scored four touchdowns in the
last five weeks. Grant is averaging 5.4 yards per carry during this span making
a resurgent Brett Favre more dangerous.The Rams? beat-up secondary
can?t stay with Green Bay?s talented wideouts.There hasn?t been a better
road team than the Packers under Mike McCarthy. Green Bay has won
seven of its past eight road contests, losing only at Dallas when several key
injured defensive starters were out, including Charles Woodson and Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila. Both Woodson and Gbaja-Biamila are healthy.The Rams, on
the other hand, have failed to cover eight of their last 11 home games.
Green Bay is a fantastic 11-2-1 (84 percent) ATS in its past 14 games.The
Rams still could be stuck with third-stringer Brock Berlin if Marc Bulger
(concussion) and Gus Frerotte (shoulder) remain out.That would make this
even more of mismatch. GREEN BAY 34-13.


OVER - UNDERS

**OVER: New York Jets at New England ? Bill Belichick won?t have
any qualms running up a score against Eric Mangini, whose offense has
picked up with the quarterback switch to Kellen Clemens.

OVER: Arizona at New Orleans ? The Cardinals? passing attack
remains dangerous with Kurt Warner, but Arizona?s secondary is an inviting
target for Drew Brees.

UNDER: New York Giants at Washington - Cold-weather, the continued
mediocre play of Eli Manning and the Redskins going with a backup
quarterback should ensure a low score.

 

[goldengreek]

T. Strikers's 7* NFL Game of the Year - 21-2 ATS System


#258 TAMPA BAY (-12') over Atlanta at 1 PM EST
The season can't end fast enough for Atlanta. The Falcons are without two of their most important assets - QB Michael Vick and now head coach Bobby Petrino. If that wasn't bad enough, Atlanta's recent play only makes this spot worse. On an ugly 0-4 SU and ATS run, the Falcons have surrendered an average of 31.0 ppg and scored an average of just 12.5 ppg over the past four weeks!

There is a really strong system that goes against Atlanta here as well. Since 1980, game 10 or later road teams that arrive off three consecutive double-digit straight up losses are a shocking 12-43 ATS provided they were NOT shutout in their last game. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .500, this situation dips to a dismal 2-21 ATS! The Falcons fit both parts of this system!

With the NFC South title on the line, Tampa Bay won't screw around. This is actually a phenomenal spot for the Bucs. As a favorite coming off a straight up loss as a favorite, Tampa has been incredible notching a sweet 21-3 SU and ATS record. Provided the Bucs were favored by -7 or less last, this team trend explodes to a sensational 18-1 SU and ATS! The Bay fits both situations perfectly.

As an underdog of +10 or more coming off a straight up loss of 10 points or more, the Falcons have crash landed posting an ugly 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS mark provided they're matched up against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage greater than .600. The Atlanta faithful will be hoping the team rallies after this week's turn of events. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers smell blood and they're going to go for the jugular. Take Tampa Bay. Thank you and best of luck, T. Striker.

 

[the duke]

LEM BANKER

Rams
Steelers
Jets

 

[goldengreek]

Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)


Game: Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams

Technical Set: Green Bay is 16-3 Over when playing in Domed Stadiums, 7-3 Over versus the NFC West, 8-1 Over coming off a non-conference game, 35-15 Over vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992, 16-6 Over in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992, 41-24 Over after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992, 8-1 Over after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. ST Louis is 13-4 Over vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992, 22-9 Over vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992, 6-1 Over when playing at home and facing Green Bay, 10-2 Over at home versus non-division opponents playing with revenge, 6-1 Over the game after facing Cincinnati, 8-2 Over versus the NFC North. Situational Set: Play Over NFL road teams against the total off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, 31-9 Over the last ten seasons. Play Over NFL home teams against the total off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more, 35-14 Over the last ten years. Play Over NFL road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season, 36-11 Over the last five seasons. After Game 13 of the season Play Over on non-divisional road favorites of 5+ points when they are coming off a SU win in their last game, 18-6 Over since 1989, this Situational Set has posted a record of 8-1 Over the last three seasons. Two of the last three in this series played in St Louis have gone over the posted total and six of the last ten overall.

Selection: GREEN BAY PACKERS / ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER



Gator's Super System Selections

Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.

Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

System: Play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 2 points with a total under 59 points off a non-saturday home contest allowing 32+ points in their last game and a road contest allowing 31+ points in their game before that, 22-2 ATS

Selection: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-)




NFL (Sunday)

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Play On NFL home teams off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG), 30-6 ATS since 1983.

SELECTION: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-)

 

[goldengreek]

CTO

CTO record for baskets .there week ended last night. (11-5)
5-1.....11*
6-4.....10*


week 1.....5-1
2-0 ........11*
3-1..........10

week 2...5-3
2-1 ...11*
3-2......10*




10* LA.-MONROE over La. Lafayette...Rebuilding process at ULL sure not running ahead of schedule, as HC Robert Lee limited by small, young

roster that has few options offensively (only 29% 3s) and isn?t playing much "D" (allowing 49% FGs), either. But Lee will get no sympathy from

rival ULM, which has proven it can "step up" this season (witness win at Iowa Classic). Big edge to vet Warhawk backcourt led by Gs Hooper

& Payne, so expect recent home-dominated series trend to continue. *LA.-MONROE 84 - La. Lafayette 65 RATING - 10

 

[goldengreek]

Norm Hitzges

December 15, 2007

NFL


Triple Plays



Minnesota ?10 vs Chicago

Double Plays


Tampa Bay ?13 vs Atlanta
San Diego ?10 vs Detroit
Jacksonville +3.5 vs Pittsburgh


Single Plays








North Star Sports Service

NFL - 12/16/2007 BUFFALO atCLEVELAND Under 45.5
NFL - 12/16/2007 JACKSONVILLE 3.5
NFL - 12/16/2007 SEATTLE atCAROLINA Over 38
NFL - 12/16/2007 KANSAS CITY 4
NFL - 12/16/2007 DETROIT 10
NFL - 12/16/2007 WASHINGTON atNY GIANTS Over 40

MONDAY
NFL - 12/17/2007 CHICAGO 10








EROCKMONEY


(1.) Green Bay (-9) at St. Louis

This a nice matchup for the Pack and their high powered passing attack. The Rams have had a tough battling through injuries and a poor defense. The Rams usually play well in the dome, but the Pack are playing solid ball and won't slip up in this one. The emergence of Ryan Grant has added another phase to the Packers offense making them a much more complete team. The Packers defense should pressure Bulger all game and stuff Jackson on the run.

Pick: Packers by 14

(2.) Carolina (+7.5) v. Seattle

The Panthers are playing awful at this point in the season are extremely tough to recommend as a "play on". Matt Moore, an undrafted quarterback, might be getting the start this week as well. I just can't bring myself to see the Seahawks a 7.5 road favorite against any team in the League. I don't care if the Panthers were starting Mandy Moore, I have to recommend the game this week. It's one thing to play well below expectations, but its another to get blown out week after week. That is what costs coaches their job. The Panthers are professionals and have to have some bite left in them and I expect to see that on the field on the week.

Pick: Panthers by 6

(3.) Pittsburgh (-3) v. Jacksonville

The Jaguars have owned the Steelers over the last few years and has been a favorite play of mine. However, the public has really taken to this trend as well. Everywhere I look everyone is talking of how J-ville owns the Steelers and how the Patriots destroyed the Steelers last week. The Steelers have heard this well, I'm sure. I'll take the home team with the marginal spread.

Pick: Steelers by 7

(Blowout of the Week) Baltimore (-3.5) at Miami

The Ravens still have some pride left and the Dolphins are terrible. I'm not buying the talk of "this week is the one" for Miami. Ravens still have some players on that defense and McGahee is due for a big game. I'll go with the Ravens in a rout.

Pick: Ravens by 17

(Upset Special) Chicago (+10.5) at Minnesota

Are the Vikings really a dominate team all of sudden? This mirage will come to end shortly and I expect the Bears to rally around Orton, as they did two seasons ago. The Vikings are playing well, yet I expect these divisional rivals to have close battle on Monday night in the dome. Bears play inspired defense and pull the shocker.

Pick: Bears by 3

(Under 48) Arizona at New Orleans

I'm not expecting the shootout everyone is calling for in this one. I think the Cardinals will try to lean on James and keep the Saints offense off the field. The Cards will attempt to take Colston out of the game, which is really the Saints only offensive weapon. I expect a real battle in this one and the defenses will play better than expected.

(Under 45) Indianapolis at Oakland

The Raiders will struggle to score more than 10 points in this game. The Colts offense will be slowed outside the doem and off the turf coupled with the poor field conditions in Oakland. Colts may cruise but don't expect many points on the scoreboard.

 

[goldengreek]

Adam Meyer

258 Bucs -13
261 Bills +5.5
259 Ravens -3
255 Cards +4
263 Packers OV45
266 Steelers -3.5
Best Bet: 254 49ers +8.5




Jorge Gonzales

262 Browns UN41
280 Giants UN36
266 Steelers UN36
257 Falcons +13
259 Ravens -3
270 Panthers +7.5
Best Bet: 261 Rams +9




Andy Iskoe

258 Bucs UN39
261 Bills +5.5
266 Steelers -3.5
270 Panthers +7.5
272 Chiefs +3.5
273 Colts -10.5
Best Bet: 282 Vikings -10.5






Vegas Hotsheet - Cincy - 8

 

[the duke]

Tim Trushel
Panthers +7

Fairway Jay
Titans/Chiefs under 34

Donnie Black
Raiders +10.5

ED Cash
Eagles/Cowboys over 48.5

David Jones
Lions/Chargers over 45.5

Erin Rynning
Skins/Giants over 36

 

[goldengreek]

INDIAN COWBOYS HILTON PICKS:

ARIZONA

PITT

OAK

PHILLY

CHICAGO





Blondie89103 -- HILTON LEADER

DENVER ( LOSER)

NEW ORLEANS

TB

JAX

SEATLE



JOEY GAFFNEY - 1/2 POINT BEHIND

ARIZONA

CLEVELAND

PITT

PHILLY

CHICAGO

 

[goldengreek]

Ben Burning

Miami
Rams
Carolina
Oakland
Wash
Rams Under



Pointwise NFL Phones

3* Green Bay, Seattle, Minnesota

2* NYG, Indy, Buffalo, Miami, Jets

 

[goldengreek]

Burns

Nfl

Miami
St Louis
Carolina
Oakland
Washington
St Louis Under


NO WRITEUPS AS OF YET

 

[goldengreek]

THE SPORTS REPORTER-- NFL THEY WERE 5-0 LAST WEEK!!


BEST BET
TENNESSEE over *KANSAS CITY by 18
Jeff Fisher and his Titans know that either Buffalo or Cleveland is guaranteed to lose on
this day, making their own quest for a Wild Card berth that much more tenable. Privately,
they?ll be sure to root for Buffalo, as that could create a scenario where three AFC teams
sit at 8-6 with two games left ? and the Titans have to love their match-ups in the last
two weeks: the hapless New York Jets next week and a Colts team that will most likely
be sitting their starters in week seventeen. Vince Young?s passing performance has been
incredibly inconsistent ? to be kind ? but their run game has been steady and productive,
with both LenDale White and Chris Brown proving capable of carrying the load. As
the calendar takes us deeper into December and the weather turns colder, Tennessee?s
ability to consistently run the ball ? to the tune of 133.8 yards per game ? should give
them a big advantage in this type of game. Last week?s loss to the Broncos ? in case you
weren?t paying attention ? was the final nail in the coffin of Kansas City?s 2007 season,
as six straight losses have relegated the Chiefs to the basement of the AFC West and
looking forward to next year. Look for the Titans to pound the rock and exploit a KC run
defense that has been crumbling over the past few weeks. TENNESSEE 31-13.





BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over *DALLAS by 3
The reports say that the Eagles ?saw their fading playoff hopes take perhaps a fatal
blow? by losing to the Giants and dropping to 5-8 SU last Sunday. It?s only fatal when the
math says it is, but that early pronouncement will be good enough for the public to grab
their forks and play ?please pass the meat,? their 12-1 SU Cowboys, who already own a
convincing 38-17 scoreboard decision in Philadelphia from November 4, when Dallas
was off its bye week and the Eagles had just spent the prior Sunday being pounded by
Minnesota?s offensive and defensive lines yet emerging with a win. The first downs margin
of the first meeting ? 24-21 -- was a lot slimmer than the scoreboard margin and
Donovan McNabb did more than his share to put the Eagles in a hole that Dallas was able
to shovel dirt on by running the ball effectively while the clock ticked against
Philadelphia. Second seasonal meetings generally get played tighter and the Eagles ? the
NFL?s bravest underdog road warrior at 27-13 ATS (68%) during Andy Reid?s tenure, have
certainly displayed enough long-term heart and pride to avoid packing it in until all postseason
chance has gone by the boards. PHILADELPHIA, 24-21.



BEST BET
WASHINGTON over *NY GIANTS by 8
Hard-fought win against division-rival Philadelphia puts the 9-4 SU Giants one step closer
to clinching the first available NFC Wild Card slot available, which doesn?t guarantee
the home favorite anything in this game, that?s for sure. Not with the 6-7 SU division-rival
Redskins coming in as the desperado road dog with three extra days to prepare as they
seek to stay alive for that second NFC Wild Card, a/k/a the Bobby Prize. Losing the services
of immature QB Jason Campbell to injury was probably the best thing that could
have happened to the Redskins, as very little meaningful tape exists on 13-season NFL
veteran Todd Collins, the latest man with the golden opportunity. Collins was on the
Kansas City Chiefs? roster when current Redskins? offensive coordinator Al Saunders was
calling the plays over there, and one could argue that he is actually a better candidate to
liven up the pedestrian Redskins? attack than Campbell was. But Campbell was getting
paid the big bucks and Collins only arrived in D.C. at the start of this season, so Campbell
was playing. If forced to suffer with Campbell as an injury returnee here, we?ll take it, but
either way, the Redskins have the healthier RBs and the better tight end for some sustained
driving. WASHINGTON, 24-16.




RECOMMENDED
BALTIMORE over *MIAMI by 14
Cam Cameron and the quest for Miami?s Reverse Perfect Season lives! The Ravens arrive
in Cameroon as the world invents reasons why they are the perfect team to be 0-13
Miami?s first and possibly only win: Dead for the playoffs, off seven straight losses themselves.
But hey, the Ravens got their egg-laying done early ? very, very early -- in the
Sunday night ultimate stinkeroo vs. the Colts. The smell is now out of their system. So
how about playing to avoid the embarrassment of being Miami's first and possibly only
2007 victim? There isn?t a player in the Baltimore locker room that wants to be associated
with that dubious distinction, and it could be a good motivator for an otherwise
group of Nowhere Men that the public also sees as the worst point-spread team in
America (2-11 ATS). But you could say that the lines are deflated for Baltimore now, and
this Miami team looks like it could only win if they had five full years of steroid foundation
under them and were playing against teams that hadn?t done steroids, ever. Ravens?
RB Willis McGahee was born in Miami, played college ball for Miami and as far as he is
concerned, he?ll be damned if the Dolphins are bringing him down in his town. BALTIMORE,
24-10.



RECOMMENDED
CINCINNATI over *SAN FRANCISCO by 17
The Play for Pride Bowl, with the Bengals? prospect for a .500 season their proverbial
dangling carrot. The best San Francisco can hope for is to worsen the first round draft
pick they?ll be handing over to New England at season?s end. The rest of the NFL will be
thrilled to know that the Patriots will most likely end up with the #2 pick in the draft ?
hello Darren McFadden! Despite a desultory 2007 season so far, the Bengals have been
saddled by a tough schedule that did them no favors. Luckily, the last three weeks represent
very winnable games. Rudi Johnson?s best game in weeks should give the Cincy
offense some hope of consistency after suffering through Carson Palmer?s worst stretch
of his career in recent weeks. The San Francisco defense, which began the season with
such high hopes, has been decimated by injury and overuse and should prove susceptible
to a high-flying Bengals attack that should be able to take advantage of a 49ers
squad that has already given up the ghost. CINCINNATI 30-13





THE SPORTS REPORTER - COLLEGE HOOPS AND NBA

RECOMMENDED
NORTH CAROLINA over *RUTGERS by 32
Scarlet Knights in early rebuilding stage . . . not where you want to be against an outfit
capable of RAC-ing them up under the ESPN klieg lights. NORTH CAROLINA, 96-64.
RECOMMENDED


*ARIZONA over FRESNO STATE by 23
?Cats shook off West-to-East travel hangover last Saturday to outfinish the Illini in
Chicago in OT. They return to action with exams in the rearview mirror. James Tchana?s
back for this visitor, though he played but briefly against UNLV last weekend; G Dwight
O?Neill remains out indefinitely. Despite Lute Olsen?s self-imposed exile, ?Cats appear to
be coming around, and could be primed to go on a bit of a roll. ARIZONA, 87-64





RECOMMENDED TOTAL
OVER
*DENVER over PORTLAND by 4
The Nuggets are coming off a tough game against the Spurs last night, but have the benefit
of playing at home and having a manageable 8 PM start time. Tonight they host a
Portland team that has shown a lot of potential, but struggled on the road. Did you know
that despite only averaging 94.1 points per game ? good for 29th in the NBA - the Trail
Blazers rank in the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency? Their scoring is suppressed
by being the fourth slowest paced offense ? a trait they?ll abandon tonight against the
run-and-shoot Nuggets. Portland is capable of putting up some points every few games
and tonight should be one of those nights. DENVER 123-119

 

[goldengreek]

ANDY ISKOE NEWSLETTER

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: KANSAS CITY + 4 over Tennessee - Tennessee let an important game get away last week with their fourth quarter collapse against San Diego. That loss left the Titans a game behind Cleveland for the second AFC Wild Card and was their fourth loss in the last five games. Kansas City's season all but ended a month and a half ago with the injury to star RB Johnson. With QB already a weak position the lack of a potent running game doomed the Chiefs, who may well finish with their worst record in more than a decade. This is the Chiefs' final home games and even in lean years they have ended their home seasons on a strong note, going 19-9-1 against the spread in their regular season home finale since 1978, including 6-0 as a home underdog. Tennessee has fared much better at home even though their home (4-3) and road (3-3) records are close. Aside from an early season 31-14 win at New Orleans, their 2 other road wins have been by just 2 and 3 points. The Chiefs should be highly motivated to end their overall 6 game losing streak, 4 of which occurred at home where they are just 2-5. KC has been one of the most stable franchises for decades and since the NFL expanded to a 16 game schedule in 1978, aside from the strike season of 1982 when they went 2-2, the Chiefs have never won fewer than 3 home games. Upset here as the pressure is all on the Wild Card seeking Titans. Kansas City wins 23-17.



Other Featured NFL Selections :

Buffalo + 5 ? over CLEVELAND - Believe it or not this is a battle for the second AFC Wild Card. At 7-6 the Bills trail the Browns by a game so a win here gives them the all important tie breaker edge. Cleveland's impressive offensive stats are almost offset by their league-worst defense, allowing 390 yards per game. Buffalo's offense is improved with rookie Edwards at QB and fellow rookie RB Lynch again healthy. Cleveland has had problems holding onto leads which makes the underdog attractive. Buffalo has faced a fairly tough schedule with 5 of their 13 foes already having at least 9 wins. In fact, against other than that quintet of teams (who are a combined 56-9), none of those 8 teams has tallied more than 21 points against the Bills and the average score against those 8 has Buffalo winning by an average of 20.5 to 13.8, winning 7 of the 8. Only 1 loss has been to a team with a losing record (15-14 to Denver in the season opener). Cleveland has lost twice to losing teams. They have covered 7 of their last 8 games and are 10-3 ATS overall, but they are now favored by the largest number of points since 2002. Buffalo pulls the upset, winning 27-24.



SAN DIEGO - 10 over Detroit - Both teams come in off of physically and emotionally draining games that featured opposite results. Detroit's lost 5 in a row and last week's last minute home loss to Dallas may have effectively ended their season. San Diego overcame a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit in Tennessee to force OT, eventually winning on a Tomlinson touchdown run. That made it 3 straight and 7 of 9 wins for the surging Chargers, who have the talent to be a spoiler in the Playoffs. The Lions have the league's second worst defense that will be challenged by the San Diego running game. Detroit's 2 road wins have been against losing teams while their 4 road losses have been by 35, 31, 10 and 32 points. And only one of THOSE losses was to a winning team (42-10 at 7-6 Minnesota). 6 of the Chargers' 8 wins have been by double digits and they are 7-3 ATS as favorites in 2007 despite a sluggish start. San Diego wears down Detroit, winning 37-17.



MINNESOTA - 10 over Chicago (Monday night) - Last season's Super Bowl runner up has suffered the fate of many recent almost champs. Chicago is 5-8 and will miss the Playoffs. The defense which carried them to the Super Bowl last season ranks # 29 this season, allowing 355 yards per game, including 124 vs the rush (# 27). Minnesota is surging at the right time behind their #1 ranked rush offense and #1 ranked rush defense. The Bears are almost the opposite, ranking near the bottom in both rushing stats (#31 on offense, 82 ypg and # 27 defense, 124 ypg). Minnesota is getting much improved QB play from Jackson, who figured to struggle early in his first season as starter. The Bears' QB situation continues to be a mess and they have been thinned out at RB due to injuries. Aside from KR Hester, the Bears do not have much. Minny won the earlier meeting 34-31 and although this is a rivalry and points, especially this many, usually are attractive, it's tough to make a case for the banged up Bears. The Vikes have won each of their last 3 games by at least 24 points and 5 of their 7 wins have been by at least 18 points. Minnesota wins in prime time, 30-13..



Best of the Rest (Opinions)HOUSTON - 1 over Denver (Thursday) SAN FRANCISCO + 9 over Cincinnati (Saturday)
CAROLINA + 7 over Seattle Philadelphia + 10 over DALLAS










MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK:


NFL:

AWESOME ANGLEOF THE WEEK
Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week Wins 67% In PLAYBOOK Last Four Years!

PLAY AGAINST any sub .400 NFL team in Game 14 if this is their final road game of the season and they are off a SU & ATS loss

PLAY AGAINST: CHICAGO BEARS




Monday, December 17th

5★ BEST BET
Don?t look now, Martha, but here come the Vikings. Given up for
lost at 2-5, they?ve stormed their way in to playoff contention.
In an earlier meeting this season, Minnesota edged the Bears
in Chicago, 34-31. Da Bears enter tonight?s contest 14-25 SUATS
on Mondays since 1980, including 1-10 ATS versus an opponent
off a SUATS win. Minny counters at 6-1 ATS under the Monday
Night lights off a win when going into revenge. Oh yeah, our
AWESOME ANGLE (see page 2) confi rms the fact that the Bears
are off into early hibernation. Enough said. Just do it!



4★ BEST BET
NFL games during the fi nal four games of the season involving
.666 or better teams squaring off against one another have
seen the road dog bring home the bacon 62% of the time.
Better yet, if they beat their home favored opponent in the
most recent meeting, they are 19-9 ATS. Toss in Jack Del Rio?s
glossy 13-7 ATS record as a dog versus .700 or better opposition
and it certainly instills confi dence. With favorites just 8-22 ATS
in games after tackling the Patriots, and Pitt shell-shocked off
last week?s disappointing effort at New England, look for the
Jags to pounce on this opportunity.



3★ BEST BET
G-Men came up big again last week while the Redskins overcame
the melodrama of the Sean Taylor saga to get past the Bears last
Thursday. The Skins are 8-1 ATS with revenge against a division
foe off a win when their record is below .500. And don?t forget
Joe Gibbs? 28-15-1 ATS mark as a dog ?down the stretch? during
the fi nal four games of the season, including 19-7 when taking
more than 3 points. Until the RIP offi cially goes up, we?ll race to
the wire with Gibbs? team.