SERVICE PLAYS FOR 12/27
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THE GOLD SHEET
HOLIDAY BOWL
TEXAS (9-3) vs. ARIZONA STATE (10-2)
Thursday, December 27 Night at San Diego, CA (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Texas 12 9-3 6-6 36 25 200 262 55-29-21 99 276 36-11-20 -3 2.4 14.8
Arizona St. 12 10-2 6-6 32 20 147 259 46-17-24 103 232 27-7-17 +7 4.0 11.7
*Arizona State 34 - Texas 31?
Both teams had bright moments in 2007, but
also have some flaws that offer pause for concern. For Texas, those flaws
include the somewhat erratic play of soph QB Colt McCoy, who executed UT?s
basic zone-read better (McCoy rushed for 408 yards), but he also tossed 18
ints. to go with his 21 TDP. Yes, McCoy had to deal with some injuries (the loss
of top target Limas Sweed and two OL starters, including A-A T Tony Hills), but
the Longhorns filled in with their quality depth. The rebuilding Texas secondary
gave up 276 ypg passing and 20 TDP, while the defense overall allowed five
opponents (including the last three) to score 32 or more points.
ASU, in its first season under Dennis Erickson, took full advantage of a
favorable early schedule to start 8-0. But the Sun Devils then failed their biggest
tests at Oregon & vs. Southern Cal, losing by a combined score of 79-47. While
QB Rudy Carpenter (63%, 23 TDs, 8 ints.) kept many plays alive with his deft
dodging, ASU gave up a whopping 51 sacks, a concern vs. outstanding sr.
Longhorn DTs Frank Okam (5 sacks) & Derek Lokey. And power back Ryan
Torain was lost with a foot injury at midseason.
Curiously, Texas has been a second-half team, scoring 243 points after
intermission, while the Sun Devils have allowed only 22 in the fourth Q TY! But
with these two QBs, the Horns? big-play runner Jamaal Charles (1458 YR, 6.3
ypc, 16 TDs), and this matchup?s two excellent kickers (ASU?s Weber hit 22 of
23 FGs to win the Groza; UT?s Bailey nailed 17 of 21), maybe this contest
continues the Holiday Bowl tradition of high-scoring affairs.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Texas 12 9-3 6-6 36 25 200 262 55-29-21 99 276 36-11-20 -3 2.4 14.8
Arizona St. 12 10-2 6-6 32 20 147 259 46-17-24 103 232 27-7-17 +7 4.0 11.7
HOLIDAY BOWL
TEXAS (9-3) vs. ARIZONA STATE (10-2)
Thursday, December 27 Night at San Diego, CA (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Texas 12 9-3 6-6 36 25 200 262 55-29-21 99 276 36-11-20 -3 2.4 14.8
Arizona St. 12 10-2 6-6 32 20 147 259 46-17-24 103 232 27-7-17 +7 4.0 11.7
*Arizona State 34 - Texas 31?
Both teams had bright moments in 2007, but
also have some flaws that offer pause for concern. For Texas, those flaws
include the somewhat erratic play of soph QB Colt McCoy, who executed UT?s
basic zone-read better (McCoy rushed for 408 yards), but he also tossed 18
ints. to go with his 21 TDP. Yes, McCoy had to deal with some injuries (the loss
of top target Limas Sweed and two OL starters, including A-A T Tony Hills), but
the Longhorns filled in with their quality depth. The rebuilding Texas secondary
gave up 276 ypg passing and 20 TDP, while the defense overall allowed five
opponents (including the last three) to score 32 or more points.
ASU, in its first season under Dennis Erickson, took full advantage of a
favorable early schedule to start 8-0. But the Sun Devils then failed their biggest
tests at Oregon & vs. Southern Cal, losing by a combined score of 79-47. While
QB Rudy Carpenter (63%, 23 TDs, 8 ints.) kept many plays alive with his deft
dodging, ASU gave up a whopping 51 sacks, a concern vs. outstanding sr.
Longhorn DTs Frank Okam (5 sacks) & Derek Lokey. And power back Ryan
Torain was lost with a foot injury at midseason.
Curiously, Texas has been a second-half team, scoring 243 points after
intermission, while the Sun Devils have allowed only 22 in the fourth Q TY! But
with these two QBs, the Horns? big-play runner Jamaal Charles (1458 YR, 6.3
ypc, 16 TDs), and this matchup?s two excellent kickers (ASU?s Weber hit 22 of
23 FGs to win the Groza; UT?s Bailey nailed 17 of 21), maybe this contest
continues the Holiday Bowl tradition of high-scoring affairs.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Texas 12 9-3 6-6 36 25 200 262 55-29-21 99 276 36-11-20 -3 2.4 14.8
Arizona St. 12 10-2 6-6 32 20 147 259 46-17-24 103 232 27-7-17 +7 4.0 11.7
CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF - FOOTBALL
10* ARIZONA STATE over Texas
Late Score Forecast:
ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 30
Holiday Bowl at San Diego, Calif.
(Thursday, December 27, 2007)
Despite struggling as a favorite down the stretch, can?t help but be impressed by Arizona State?s performance
this season under first-year HC Dennis Erickson. The Sun Devils went 10-2, losing only to USC and a fullstrength
Oregon side ranked 4th in the country at the time. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter (career 252 ypg passing, 40
TDs, only 10 ints.) figures to have some success facing a Texas defense that ranked 109th against the pass,
allowing 278 ypg passing. Sun Devil RBs Keegan Herring & Dimitri Nance combined for 1268 YR, so the attack
has balance. The Longhorns were just 4-3 SU against bowl teams, and have covered just 3 of last 10 away from
Austin. Expect a shootout, but ASU?s tougher defense tips the scale.
10* ARIZONA STATE over Texas
Late Score Forecast:
ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 30
Holiday Bowl at San Diego, Calif.
(Thursday, December 27, 2007)
Despite struggling as a favorite down the stretch, can?t help but be impressed by Arizona State?s performance
this season under first-year HC Dennis Erickson. The Sun Devils went 10-2, losing only to USC and a fullstrength
Oregon side ranked 4th in the country at the time. ASU QB Rudy Carpenter (career 252 ypg passing, 40
TDs, only 10 ints.) figures to have some success facing a Texas defense that ranked 109th against the pass,
allowing 278 ypg passing. Sun Devil RBs Keegan Herring & Dimitri Nance combined for 1268 YR, so the attack
has balance. The Longhorns were just 4-3 SU against bowl teams, and have covered just 3 of last 10 away from
Austin. Expect a shootout, but ASU?s tougher defense tips the scale.
THE MAX- KEVIN O'NEIL
Holiday Bowl @San Diego, CA
December 27, 2007 8PM EST
Arizona State vs. Texas
Opening line: Texas ?1?, 62
Current line: Texas ?2?, 62
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Upset with the poor performance of his team in the
Texas A&M loss, and really all year long. Mack
Brown has informed his team that all jobs are open
heading into the Holiday Bowl. And he seems to
have the attention of his team.
"Everybody has to be accountable for each other,"
Texas? leader. Colt McCoy said. "We, as a team,
have to be more accountable towards each other,
towards this tradition and towards this program.
That is something we can obviously do better. ? The
Quarterback continued, ?We've got the talent. We've
got the players. It's time for us to put it together
and be consistent."
Arizona State was hoping to play in the Fiesta Bowl,
but their hometown bowl went in another direction.
But there shouldn?t be a letdown, as San Diego is a
heck of a consolation prize and a manageable drive
from Tempe. Rudy Carpenter is a good quarterback,
but Texas? defensive front have to be licking their
chops, as the Sun Devils have allowed 51 sacks this
season. Some of the sacks are a result of mediocre
receivers being unable to get open. We saw in
Arizona State?s dominating loss to Southern Cal that
the Sun Devils lack top-flight talent, something their
coaching staff readily admits.
The Sun Devils are actually a defensively oriented
team, allowing more than 20 points only three times
all season long. They have an impressive pass
defense, allowing only 6.1 yards per pass attempt
despite playing in the pass-happy Pac 10. Texas
never scored less than 21 points in a game all
season long and never gained fewer than 340 yards
in a game. Interestingly, the Longhorns were able to
move the ball just as well against the better teams
on their schedule as they did against the weaker
teams. UT averages 36 points, 462 yards, and 6.2
yards per play overall, and a nearly identical 35
points, 464 yards, and 6.3 yards per play against
bowl foes.
The Longhorns seem to be enthused to be here
(they played here 3 out of 4 years earlier in the
decade, but nobody on this team has every played
in a Holiday Bowl), but they had bigger plans not
only heading into the season, but heading into their
finale with Texas A&M. Arizona State is happy to be
here. After a long hard look at the better defense
plus small points, Texas? offense and the fire that
Mack Brown has lit under them concerns me.
Passing for now. Let?s see how the Pac Ten and Big
12 teams do in early bowls and what this line does
Holiday Bowl @San Diego, CA
December 27, 2007 8PM EST
Arizona State vs. Texas
Opening line: Texas ?1?, 62
Current line: Texas ?2?, 62
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Upset with the poor performance of his team in the
Texas A&M loss, and really all year long. Mack
Brown has informed his team that all jobs are open
heading into the Holiday Bowl. And he seems to
have the attention of his team.
"Everybody has to be accountable for each other,"
Texas? leader. Colt McCoy said. "We, as a team,
have to be more accountable towards each other,
towards this tradition and towards this program.
That is something we can obviously do better. ? The
Quarterback continued, ?We've got the talent. We've
got the players. It's time for us to put it together
and be consistent."
Arizona State was hoping to play in the Fiesta Bowl,
but their hometown bowl went in another direction.
But there shouldn?t be a letdown, as San Diego is a
heck of a consolation prize and a manageable drive
from Tempe. Rudy Carpenter is a good quarterback,
but Texas? defensive front have to be licking their
chops, as the Sun Devils have allowed 51 sacks this
season. Some of the sacks are a result of mediocre
receivers being unable to get open. We saw in
Arizona State?s dominating loss to Southern Cal that
the Sun Devils lack top-flight talent, something their
coaching staff readily admits.
The Sun Devils are actually a defensively oriented
team, allowing more than 20 points only three times
all season long. They have an impressive pass
defense, allowing only 6.1 yards per pass attempt
despite playing in the pass-happy Pac 10. Texas
never scored less than 21 points in a game all
season long and never gained fewer than 340 yards
in a game. Interestingly, the Longhorns were able to
move the ball just as well against the better teams
on their schedule as they did against the weaker
teams. UT averages 36 points, 462 yards, and 6.2
yards per play overall, and a nearly identical 35
points, 464 yards, and 6.3 yards per play against
bowl foes.
The Longhorns seem to be enthused to be here
(they played here 3 out of 4 years earlier in the
decade, but nobody on this team has every played
in a Holiday Bowl), but they had bigger plans not
only heading into the season, but heading into their
finale with Texas A&M. Arizona State is happy to be
here. After a long hard look at the better defense
plus small points, Texas? offense and the fire that
Mack Brown has lit under them concerns me.
Passing for now. Let?s see how the Pac Ten and Big
12 teams do in early bowls and what this line does
THE SPORTS MEMO
Arizona State vs. Texas -2 O/U 61 Recommendation: Over
Thursday, December 27, 8 pm EST (ESPN) San Diego, Calif
The PAC-10 has the worst bowl affiliations of any major conference.
The second, third and fourth place teams from the Big Ten
all play on New Year?s Day in desirable locations: Tampa Bay, Orlando
and Pasadena. The fifth team from the SEC, Arkansas, plays
in the Cotton Bowl on New Year?s Day. But in the PAC-10, the second
place team plays in the Holiday Bowl on a Thursday Night just after
Christmas in December. There?s no question that Arizona State, as
a team, is extremely disappointed in this bid. The Sun Devils were
penalized for the Fiesta Bowl?s location in Tempe, otherwise they
would likely have earned a BCS Bowl bid in their home city. But economic
concerns (tourists spend more local dollars than residents)
forced the Fiesta Bowl to look elsewhere, allowing the Rose Bowl to
pick Illinois as an at-large team, leaving Dennis Erickson?s squad in
San Diego over the holidays. San Diego certainly isn?t a bad place
to be in late December, but it?s certainly not an exotic or enticing
location for a PAC-10 school. That?s just one of the reasons why the
Holiday Bowl has been an underdog bettor?s dream over the last
decade. Qualcomm Stadium seems to be a place where favorites
come to lose. The favorite in this bowl is just 1-8 ATS in its nine-year
existence, with five favorites losing outright and three more winning
in tight fashion. Cal became the first favorite ever to cover the
spread in this bowl last year, whipping Texas A&M 45-10. If Arizona
State overcomes the disappointment of their BCS Bowl snub and
comes to play, they are surely the better of these two teams, capable
of winning by margin. The Sun Devils thrived on adversity all
year, rallying back repeatedly from early deficits. Quarterback Rudy
Carpenter thrived under Erickson?s tutelage, completing 63% of his
passes with a 23-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio while throwing for more than
3,000 yards. Leading rusher Keegan Herring struggled down the
stretch after his counterpart, Ryan Torain, was lost with a season
ending injury, but he still averaged just shy of 5.5 yards per carry.
And we?d be remiss if we failed to mention frosh kicker Thomas
Weber, who converted on 22 of his 23 field goal tries, including a
perfect six-for-six from outside 40 yards. Weber?s foot is a major
reason why Arizona State averaged more than 30 points per game
in PAC-10 play this year. And with a defense that allowed more than
20 points only three times all season, Arizona State didn?t blow a
single lead all season, they were simply outplayed in both of their
losses (USC and Oregon). Texas wasn?t very good this year, right
from the start. They were resilient, rallying from behind to earn key
late season wins against Nebraska and Oklahoma State on consecutive
weeks, but their defense really fell apart down the stretch, particularly
against the pass. The Longhorns allowed more than 1,500
passing yards in their final four games, giving up more than nine
yards per pass attempt during that span. Quarterback Colt McCoy
is certainly capable of stellar big game performances, and this bowl
has a history of wild shootouts. Expect another wild game this year.
Arizona State vs. Texas -2 O/U 61 Recommendation: Over
Thursday, December 27, 8 pm EST (ESPN) San Diego, Calif
The PAC-10 has the worst bowl affiliations of any major conference.
The second, third and fourth place teams from the Big Ten
all play on New Year?s Day in desirable locations: Tampa Bay, Orlando
and Pasadena. The fifth team from the SEC, Arkansas, plays
in the Cotton Bowl on New Year?s Day. But in the PAC-10, the second
place team plays in the Holiday Bowl on a Thursday Night just after
Christmas in December. There?s no question that Arizona State, as
a team, is extremely disappointed in this bid. The Sun Devils were
penalized for the Fiesta Bowl?s location in Tempe, otherwise they
would likely have earned a BCS Bowl bid in their home city. But economic
concerns (tourists spend more local dollars than residents)
forced the Fiesta Bowl to look elsewhere, allowing the Rose Bowl to
pick Illinois as an at-large team, leaving Dennis Erickson?s squad in
San Diego over the holidays. San Diego certainly isn?t a bad place
to be in late December, but it?s certainly not an exotic or enticing
location for a PAC-10 school. That?s just one of the reasons why the
Holiday Bowl has been an underdog bettor?s dream over the last
decade. Qualcomm Stadium seems to be a place where favorites
come to lose. The favorite in this bowl is just 1-8 ATS in its nine-year
existence, with five favorites losing outright and three more winning
in tight fashion. Cal became the first favorite ever to cover the
spread in this bowl last year, whipping Texas A&M 45-10. If Arizona
State overcomes the disappointment of their BCS Bowl snub and
comes to play, they are surely the better of these two teams, capable
of winning by margin. The Sun Devils thrived on adversity all
year, rallying back repeatedly from early deficits. Quarterback Rudy
Carpenter thrived under Erickson?s tutelage, completing 63% of his
passes with a 23-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio while throwing for more than
3,000 yards. Leading rusher Keegan Herring struggled down the
stretch after his counterpart, Ryan Torain, was lost with a season
ending injury, but he still averaged just shy of 5.5 yards per carry.
And we?d be remiss if we failed to mention frosh kicker Thomas
Weber, who converted on 22 of his 23 field goal tries, including a
perfect six-for-six from outside 40 yards. Weber?s foot is a major
reason why Arizona State averaged more than 30 points per game
in PAC-10 play this year. And with a defense that allowed more than
20 points only three times all season, Arizona State didn?t blow a
single lead all season, they were simply outplayed in both of their
losses (USC and Oregon). Texas wasn?t very good this year, right
from the start. They were resilient, rallying from behind to earn key
late season wins against Nebraska and Oklahoma State on consecutive
weeks, but their defense really fell apart down the stretch, particularly
against the pass. The Longhorns allowed more than 1,500
passing yards in their final four games, giving up more than nine
yards per pass attempt during that span. Quarterback Colt McCoy
is certainly capable of stellar big game performances, and this bowl
has a history of wild shootouts. Expect another wild game this year.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS ( 6-1 SO FAR ) -->. 3-1 SIDES/ 3-0 TOTALS
ARIZONA ST (10-2) TEXAS (9-3)
HOLLIDAY BOWL
This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight
year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/?95 in non-NYD
bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18? in last trip
here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has
guided to the post season. Horns? HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are
both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the
fan edge due to the Longhorns? faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring opp?s
on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes
on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while
ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as AD?s, incl TY?s
loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LY?s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days
to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun
Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).
QB Carpenter flourished in Erickson?s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.
The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn
w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in
the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the
EZ. ASU?s OL avg 6?5? 315 and is full of experience with 4 Sr?s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)
but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether
the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASU?s def started on fire holding 4 of their
first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6?3? 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101
ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in
tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with
a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with
our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts
earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.
Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC
to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win
was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in
their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy
had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).
The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.8)
vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but
suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor
league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6?5?? 305 with NO senior
starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6?6?? 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6?4?? 285)
tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the
3 deep. The DL avg 6?3?? 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked
#10 in NCAA in rush D all?g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (all?g 276
ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.
This bowl features a pair of HC?s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall
behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this
year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating
UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even
but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day
bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.
FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2*
ARIZONA ST (10-2) TEXAS (9-3)
HOLLIDAY BOWL
This will be the 1st meeting between these programs. Texas is making a bowl trip for the 10th straight
year (23-21-2 all-time). Longhorns are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in the Holiday Bowl & are 0-5 ATS S/?95 in non-NYD
bowls. Arizona St (12-10-1 all-time) is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS in the Holiday Bowl (lost 27-4, +18? in last trip
here vs #6 K-St). Sun Devil HC Erickson is 5-5 in bowls (4-6 ATS) and this is the 4th different team he has
guided to the post season. Horns? HC Brown is 9-6 SU & 6-9 ATS (3-6 ATS w/UT) in bowls. ASU & UT are
both disappointed not to be playing on NYD. ASU did sell their allotment of tickets, but Texas might have the
fan edge due to the Longhorns? faithful fans. ASU is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outscoring opp?s
on avg 30-28 & being outgained 381-378. UT is 4-2 SU & 3-2-1 ATS vs bowl caliber teams outscoring foes
on avg 36-32 & outgaining them 464-432. Texas has 8 senior starters with 15 upperclassman (68%) while
ASU has 10 senior starters with 18 upperclassman (82%). The Sun Devils are 6-16 ATS as AD?s, incl TY?s
loss in Eugene (w/Dixon). Horns are 2-7-1 ATS as an AF (including LY?s bowl). Texas has had 8 more days
to prepare as ASU finished up on Dec 1st. While UT (#6) & ASU (#26) both rank high offensively, the Sun
Devils have a slight def edge (#14-32), and have played a stronger sked (#9-25).
QB Carpenter flourished in Erickson?s system increasing the tms ppg avg from 26.8 to 32.2 TY.
The ground gm was a surprising plus for the 2nd consec yr despite #1RB Torain going down mid-ssn
w/inj as Herring & Nance did a solid job in his absence. WR Jones continues to be the deep threat in
the receiving corps while McGaha leads the tm in rec & rec yds but surprisingly has yet to reach the
EZ. ASU?s OL avg 6?5? 315 and is full of experience with 4 Sr?s & 1 Jr paving the way for 147 ypg (3.4)
but surprisingly allowed a Pac 10 high 51 sks (only SYR & ND allowed more nationally). Altogether
the offense has our #26 ranking. For the 2nd straight ssn, ASU?s def started on fire holding 4 of their
first 5 opponents to 14 pts or less. The DL avg 6?3? 267 & is led by Davis and Vasquez allowing 101
ypg (3.4) on the ground while recording 27 ttl sks. The LB corps is led by James who led the tm in
tkls (37 more than #2). The ASU secondary is ranked #6 in pass eff def allowing 232 ypg (52%) with
a 17-17 ratio. They are led by a dangerous CB in Tryon & playmaking SS Nolan. ASU finished with
our #14 overall defense. First yr K Weber had an AA ssn converting on all but 1 of his FG attempts
earning the Groza Award in the process. The Sun Devils finished with our #39 ST ranking.
Texas has had one of the most inconsistent seasons under Brown, but he is the only active IA HC
to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 11 consec ssns. After B2B opening Big XII losses, the Longhorns avg win
was by 19 ppg while they outgained foes by 126 ypg before running into an emotional A&M squad in
their ssn finale. Brown still had UT one gm from a Title shot & a possible BCS bowl. Soph QB McCoy
had a little slump as he tossed an int in every gm TY except vs Rice (#105 pass eff D) & ISU (#106).
The rushing attack was stellar led by Charles with six 100+ yd gms including a career best 290 (8.8)
vs Nebraska. The Longhorns came into TY with one of the most explosive WR corps in the country, but
suffered a huge loss when Sr Sweed had ssn ending wrist surg at mid-ssn. Sr Jones & former minor
league baseball player Cosby stepped up as the primary targets. The OL avg 6?5?? 305 with NO senior
starters but 1st Tm All-Big 12 Sr LT Hills (6?6?? 305) broke his left fibula on 11/10 & Sr C Griffin (6?4?? 285)
tore an ACL on 11/3 & going into the bowl they are very inexperienced with just 1 upperclassman in the
3 deep. The DL avg 6?3?? 284 with 2 senior starters & this is a deep unit allowing 3.0 ypc & UT is ranked
#10 in NCAA in rush D all?g just 99 ypg. UT has a lot of talent in the secondary, but ranks #56 (all?g 276
ypg, 62%, 20-14 ratio). Texas has our #6 ranked offense, #32 defense & #25 sp tms.
This bowl features a pair of HC?s with National Championships. Both teams have a propensity to fall
behind early and rally back. Texas had an uneven season and did not win & cover consec games this
year and finished their season getting upset by A&M for a 2nd straight year. ASU did finish by beating
UA but failed to cover any of their final 4 gms. As you can see by the checklist, we rate these teams even
but the Sun Devils get the call being a team thrilled to be here vs a team that is 0-5 ATS on non-NY Day
bowls and that expected to be a national contender or at the minimum a BCS bowl team.
FORECAST: ARIZONA STATE (+) 35 Texas 32 RATING: 2*
Jon Campbell (1-6 bowl record)
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Texas vs. Arizona State (+2, 62 ?)
Guess what the Horns are working on leading up to the Holiday Bowl? Everything. But especially the pass defense, which has given up 543 yards per game over its last three. Eww.
Pick: Arizona State +2
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl
Texas vs. Arizona State (+2, 62 ?)
Guess what the Horns are working on leading up to the Holiday Bowl? Everything. But especially the pass defense, which has given up 543 yards per game over its last three. Eww.
Pick: Arizona State +2
THE SPORTS REPORTER
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
HOLIDAY BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium ? San Diego, CA
BEST BET
ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 11
At the end of his first season with the Sun Devils, head coach Dennis Erickson takes one
of the nation?s most upperclassmen-laden teams into a state that 41 players on his roster
called home before they packed up and moved to Tempe, AZ. Most of those kids
were from the Southern California area, where three Texas players are from. Longhorns?
head coach Mack Brown has declared Texas? bowl practices and the game as ?all starting
jobs open? season, which will draw some attention Texas? way. Maybe it should,
maybe it shouldn?t. Texas is 0-3 ATS in Holiday Bowls under Brown, all against Pac 10
opponents. When Texas is playing in the Holiday Bowl, Texas has had an unfulfilling season
and ?all starting jobs are open? for the next. That?s how a coach sustains a highlevel
program expected to compete for national championships every year. We played
successfully on South Carolina?s Steve Spurrier and a similar ?all jobs open? edict in a
bowl last season, but Spurrier?s opponent was from Conference USA. If Brown is holding
open auditions with only 41 upperclassmen on the roster and three key seniors
among 18 unavailable (center Dallas Griffin, left tackle Tony Hill, WR Limas Sweed) then
Erickson?s 55 Pac 10 upperclassmen (31 juniors, 24 seniors) would appear to have an
edge. Arizona State leads the nation in Time of Possession (33:56), while the Texas
defense allowed 533, 476 and 594 yards in its last three outings and was the culprit
when the Texas A&M offense played a 40-20 minute game of hide the piggie against
the Longhorns. ARIZONA STATE, 37-26
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
HOLIDAY BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium ? San Diego, CA
BEST BET
ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 11
At the end of his first season with the Sun Devils, head coach Dennis Erickson takes one
of the nation?s most upperclassmen-laden teams into a state that 41 players on his roster
called home before they packed up and moved to Tempe, AZ. Most of those kids
were from the Southern California area, where three Texas players are from. Longhorns?
head coach Mack Brown has declared Texas? bowl practices and the game as ?all starting
jobs open? season, which will draw some attention Texas? way. Maybe it should,
maybe it shouldn?t. Texas is 0-3 ATS in Holiday Bowls under Brown, all against Pac 10
opponents. When Texas is playing in the Holiday Bowl, Texas has had an unfulfilling season
and ?all starting jobs are open? for the next. That?s how a coach sustains a highlevel
program expected to compete for national championships every year. We played
successfully on South Carolina?s Steve Spurrier and a similar ?all jobs open? edict in a
bowl last season, but Spurrier?s opponent was from Conference USA. If Brown is holding
open auditions with only 41 upperclassmen on the roster and three key seniors
among 18 unavailable (center Dallas Griffin, left tackle Tony Hill, WR Limas Sweed) then
Erickson?s 55 Pac 10 upperclassmen (31 juniors, 24 seniors) would appear to have an
edge. Arizona State leads the nation in Time of Possession (33:56), while the Texas
defense allowed 533, 476 and 594 yards in its last three outings and was the culprit
when the Texas A&M offense played a 40-20 minute game of hide the piggie against
the Longhorns. ARIZONA STATE, 37-26
WINNING POINTS
HOLIDAY BOWL
(December 27 at San Diego)
ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 5
We were surprised when Texas was opened as the favorite in this game, and then
even more surprised when the early money went in the Longhorn direction. But
reputations can be a difficult thing to change, which means that a program that has
been in serious decline since Vince Young left continues to be regarded as one that
rates among the nation?s elite. Part of that, of course, is because Texas still managed
a 9-3 campaign, but it was a precarious tight rope ? the Longhorns were 3-0 in
games decided by three points or less. In Jamal Charles they have one of the most
under-rated RB?s in the nation, but QB Colt McCoy lacks the arm strength to
attack defenses vertically, and a quick Sun Devil unit is difficult to move the ball
against if you are trying to make things happen underneath. The real problem for
Texas is a pass defense that was abysmal down the stretch. They finished 109th in
passing yards allowed, and over the last three games gave up a horrific 1,573 yards
and 13 touchdowns through the air, while getting only three interceptions. That
means ample opportunity for Rudy Carpenter (#1 in the Pac 10 in passing efficiency)
to attack, and we anticipate a special hunger from the Sun Devils to cap
their turnaround season under Dennis Erickson in style. This opponent, despite
being favored, is not all that much in their way. ARIZONA STATE 33-28.
HOLIDAY BOWL
(December 27 at San Diego)
ARIZONA STATE over TEXAS by 5
We were surprised when Texas was opened as the favorite in this game, and then
even more surprised when the early money went in the Longhorn direction. But
reputations can be a difficult thing to change, which means that a program that has
been in serious decline since Vince Young left continues to be regarded as one that
rates among the nation?s elite. Part of that, of course, is because Texas still managed
a 9-3 campaign, but it was a precarious tight rope ? the Longhorns were 3-0 in
games decided by three points or less. In Jamal Charles they have one of the most
under-rated RB?s in the nation, but QB Colt McCoy lacks the arm strength to
attack defenses vertically, and a quick Sun Devil unit is difficult to move the ball
against if you are trying to make things happen underneath. The real problem for
Texas is a pass defense that was abysmal down the stretch. They finished 109th in
passing yards allowed, and over the last three games gave up a horrific 1,573 yards
and 13 touchdowns through the air, while getting only three interceptions. That
means ample opportunity for Rudy Carpenter (#1 in the Pac 10 in passing efficiency)
to attack, and we anticipate a special hunger from the Sun Devils to cap
their turnaround season under Dennis Erickson in style. This opponent, despite
being favored, is not all that much in their way. ARIZONA STATE 33-28.
POINTWISE ( 0-7 SO FAR !!!!!!!!!!!)
HOLIDAY ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas .......... 41.6 .. 36-25 .. 23-21 .. 200- 99 ... 262-276.. - 3 . Texas
Arizona St .. 43.3 .. 32-20 .. 22-18 .. 151-107 .. 259-232.. + 7 . by 3.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 4th time in 8 years, the Longhorns of Texas return to the Holiday Bowl.
Vince Young, of course, took them to a pair of Rose Bowls, with 11-1 & 13-0
marks, the 2nd of which won for them the National Title. Since his departure,
Mack Brown's team has compiled a 19-6 log. A mark that the vast majority of
squads would cherish, but not up to their combined record of 56-8, the previous
4 seasons. They again rank among the elite squads in moving the ball,
finishing in the 12th spot in total offense, & 19th in scoring. RB Charles has
been their "go-to" man, finishing the regular season with 1,458 yds (6.3 ypr),
along with 18 TDs. But altho QB McCoy has thrown for 3,129 yds (64.9%) &
21 TDs, he has also tossed a co-Big 12 leading 18 interceptions. And check
the 'Horns allowing 35.2 ppg over their final 4 games. They are, of course, a
bowl season fixture, with this marking their 46th such contest, & in recent
years, jumping on the underdog has proven profitable, with the pup covering 7
of their last 8 holiday games. The Sun Devils of Arizona State had Rose Bowl
dreams as late as the final week of the season, but it wasn't to be. Dennis
Erickson inherited 16 starters from LY's 7-6 bowl team, & broke to an 8-0 start,
climbing to the 6th spot in the nation, before a loss to Oregon, despite a 489-
400 yd edge. Carpenter would rank 15th among the nation's QBs at season's
end, with 3,015 yds (63%), 23 TDs, & 8 INTs. Defensively, only 2 teams topped
146 RYs vs the Devils, who ranked 13th vs the run. Neither team did much
down the stretch, with the Suns entering on at 0-4 ATS, & the 'Horns at 1-3-1.
Holiday Bowls sure have seen their share of wild games. More of the same.
PROPHECY: ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4
HOLIDAY ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas .......... 41.6 .. 36-25 .. 23-21 .. 200- 99 ... 262-276.. - 3 . Texas
Arizona St .. 43.3 .. 32-20 .. 22-18 .. 151-107 .. 259-232.. + 7 . by 3.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 4th time in 8 years, the Longhorns of Texas return to the Holiday Bowl.
Vince Young, of course, took them to a pair of Rose Bowls, with 11-1 & 13-0
marks, the 2nd of which won for them the National Title. Since his departure,
Mack Brown's team has compiled a 19-6 log. A mark that the vast majority of
squads would cherish, but not up to their combined record of 56-8, the previous
4 seasons. They again rank among the elite squads in moving the ball,
finishing in the 12th spot in total offense, & 19th in scoring. RB Charles has
been their "go-to" man, finishing the regular season with 1,458 yds (6.3 ypr),
along with 18 TDs. But altho QB McCoy has thrown for 3,129 yds (64.9%) &
21 TDs, he has also tossed a co-Big 12 leading 18 interceptions. And check
the 'Horns allowing 35.2 ppg over their final 4 games. They are, of course, a
bowl season fixture, with this marking their 46th such contest, & in recent
years, jumping on the underdog has proven profitable, with the pup covering 7
of their last 8 holiday games. The Sun Devils of Arizona State had Rose Bowl
dreams as late as the final week of the season, but it wasn't to be. Dennis
Erickson inherited 16 starters from LY's 7-6 bowl team, & broke to an 8-0 start,
climbing to the 6th spot in the nation, before a loss to Oregon, despite a 489-
400 yd edge. Carpenter would rank 15th among the nation's QBs at season's
end, with 3,015 yds (63%), 23 TDs, & 8 INTs. Defensively, only 2 teams topped
146 RYs vs the Devils, who ranked 13th vs the run. Neither team did much
down the stretch, with the Suns entering on at 0-4 ATS, & the 'Horns at 1-3-1.
Holiday Bowls sure have seen their share of wild games. More of the same.
PROPHECY: ARIZONA STATE 38 - Texas 36 RATING: 4
EROCKMONEY ( 4-3 SO FAR)
12/27 - Holiday - Arizona St (+2.5) v. Texas
l love the Sun Devils in this game. Texas had a terrible season on and off the field and don't expect them to be focused on this matchup. Arizona St. will have the crowd and play strong under legendary coach Erickson.
Pick: Arizona St. by 4
12/27 - Holiday - Arizona St (+2.5) v. Texas
l love the Sun Devils in this game. Texas had a terrible season on and off the field and don't expect them to be focused on this matchup. Arizona St. will have the crowd and play strong under legendary coach Erickson.
Pick: Arizona St. by 4
ACE ACE / ALLEN EASTMEN (1-6 SO FAR)
Holiday Bowl
M/L $400/$468 Take #404 Arizona State Sun Devils M/L over Texas Longhorns. (Thursday, December 27, 8:00 pm EST).
Holiday Bowl
M/L $400/$468 Take #404 Arizona State Sun Devils M/L over Texas Longhorns. (Thursday, December 27, 8:00 pm EST).
VEGAS HOTSHEET ( 4-7 SO FAR)
Thursday, December 27th
HOLIDAY BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
403 Texas 38
404 Arizona 20
TEXAS -2?
FREE PICK: UNDER 62
Thursday, December 27th
HOLIDAY BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
403 Texas 38
404 Arizona 20
TEXAS -2?
FREE PICK: UNDER 62
The Logical Approach...Andy Iskoe...
Holiday Bowl:
Arizona State over Texas (4 Star) This is his first 4* of the bowl season and recommends a 2unit play or 3% of bankroll here
OVER (3 Star) he is perfect with 3* totals this year in Bowls. He recommends a 1unit play here or 2% of bankroll
Holiday Bowl:
Arizona State over Texas (4 Star) This is his first 4* of the bowl season and recommends a 2unit play or 3% of bankroll here
OVER (3 Star) he is perfect with 3* totals this year in Bowls. He recommends a 1unit play here or 2% of bankroll
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MIGHTY! QUINN
Another looooooooser last night!!!!!!!
:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:
(2-5 in bowls )
Texas - 2 1/2
(9~28 last 37)
Another looooooooser last night!!!!!!!
:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:
(2-5 in bowls )
Texas - 2 1/2
(9~28 last 37)
Whatifsports simulations (3-4)
***Holiday Bowl***
Arizona State 30 - Texas 23
Highlight: Fittingly, the first overtime game occurs in the notoriously dramatic Holiday Bowl. A pass interference call sets up the Sun Devils touchdown in the first OT. Colt McCoy and Texas fail to answer.
***Holiday Bowl***
Arizona State 30 - Texas 23
Highlight: Fittingly, the first overtime game occurs in the notoriously dramatic Holiday Bowl. A pass interference call sets up the Sun Devils touchdown in the first OT. Colt McCoy and Texas fail to answer.
WILD BILL ( 2-1 )
Arizona State +2 (3 units) Sun Devils primed to win straight up vs banged up Horns
Arizona State +2 (3 units) Sun Devils primed to win straight up vs banged up Horns
