SERVICE PLAYS FOR SAT. 1/5
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
WINNING POINTS
Jacksonville over *Pittsburgh by 10
Jacksonville is a Florida club, but they sure don?t play like a warm-weather
team.The Jaguars are old-fashion, built to pound the ball with two excellent
running backs - a rejuvenated Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew ? a quarterback
who limits his mistakes and a physical defense that excels versus
the run. The Jaguars match up well to Pittsburgh, covering in each of the
past four years during the teams? last four meetings. Jacksonville held
Pittsburgh to an average of 14 points during these four contests.Bad weather
conditions won?t necessarily favor the Steelers either.The Jaguars defeated
the Steelers at Heinz Field on Dec. 16 in snow and swirling winds, 29-22.
Taylor rushed for 147 yards and quarterback David Garrard threw three
touchdown passes.The Jaguars out-gained the Steelers, 421-217, while controlling
time of possession, 37:39-22:21. The Steelers? run defense hasn?t
lived up to their lofty statistics since losing defensive lineman,Aaron Smith,
for the season. Smith was their top run stuffer.Taylor, Steven Jackson and
Musa Smith all rushed for at least 80 yards against the Steelers during the
past three weeks. Jacksonville has been playing in peak form, until resting
its starters during a meaningless regular-season finale against Houston. Prior
to that contest, Jacksonville had covered seven in a row and 11 of its past
15 games.The Jaguars have scored at least 24 points in their past 10 games.
They gained at least 400 yards in five consecutive matchups, until picking
up 381 yards against the Texans behind backup quarterback Quinn Gary
and reserve running backs. Garrard doesn?t get the attention of elite quarterbacks.
But he entered Week 17 ranked No. 3 in passing with a marvelous
18-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ben Roethlisberger has had a big
year, too, for Pittsburgh with 32 touchdown passes. But the Steelers have
done a poor job protecting him. He?s been sacked 47 times, including 24
during the last six games, before sitting out the regular-season finale against
Baltimore.The Jaguars sacked Roethlisberger five times in the team?s earlier
meeting. The Steelers are going to continue to have problems keeping
Roethlisberger upright because of two key injuries. Tackle Marvel Smith,
Pittsburgh?s best pass blocker, has missed the past few games due to a disc
problem. He?s not expected to play here.The Steelers are without their star
tailback,Willie Parker, out for the season. Not only was Parker a home-run
threat, but he kept defenses honest where they had to respect
Roethlisberger?s play-action. Najeh Davenport replaces Parker. He?s a plodder,
who scares janitors more than defenses. JACKSONVILLE 23-13.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*Seattle over Washington by 1
It took the most tragic of circumstances, but the Redskins have come
together following the funeral of slain Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor. Since
Taylor?s funeral, the Redskins have gone 4-0, salvaging a season that looked
lost. Seattle is very tough at home. Since 2001, the Seahawks are 42-14 at
Qwest Field, the second-best mark in the NFL during this span.Washington
was unable to advance in the playoffs when it last played at Seattle, losing
20-10 in 2005. Expect better from this Redskins squad. The team is more
balanced, is deeper and has a better quarterback than the 2005 team that
was led by Mark Brunell.Washington has run 128 times and thrown 122
times during the past four games. Clinton Portis has had mostly a down season,
but he?s still dangerous and not asked to carry the full load like before.
Ladell Betts is one of the better backup running backs. Todd Collins has
filled in admirably for injured Jason Campbell.The savvy veteran has completed
67-of-105 passes for 888 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions
in four games since replacing Campbell. Collins isn?t fancy, but
he?s well-versed in how Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders want their offense operated.
Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley provide reliable targets.
Seattle hasn?t allowed a 100-yard rusher at home this season.The Seahawks?
ground attack, however, has gone downhill since losing guard Steve
Hutchinson in free-agency and fullback Mack Strong to retirement. Shaun
Alexander looks old. This puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Matt
Hasselbeck, who lacks a true No. 1 type wideout. Hasselbeck has had a
strong year, though, throwing for a franchise record in passing yards. He
also has thrown 10 touchdown passes and been picked off three times in
his last four home games.The Seahawks have 45 sacks and 20 interceptions.
They?ve had 18 sacks and 17 takeaways, while allowing 15 points per contest
going into Week 17. So their defense can make big plays. But allowing
44 points to Atlanta last week is no way to get ready for the playoffs, even
though the game was meaningless. The Falcons had broken the 20-point
barrier just once during their last 11 games prior to beating the Seahawks,
44-41. Third-string quarterback Chris Redman threw four touchdowns for
Atlanta. It was the most points Seattle has yielded since 2003.The bad thing
is Mike Holmgren played his starting defense nearly the entire game, so this
can?t be blamed on inept second-stringers, although Atlanta took advantage
of several turnovers by backup quarterback Seneca Wallace.SEATTLE 21-20.
Jacksonville over *Pittsburgh by 10
Jacksonville is a Florida club, but they sure don?t play like a warm-weather
team.The Jaguars are old-fashion, built to pound the ball with two excellent
running backs - a rejuvenated Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew ? a quarterback
who limits his mistakes and a physical defense that excels versus
the run. The Jaguars match up well to Pittsburgh, covering in each of the
past four years during the teams? last four meetings. Jacksonville held
Pittsburgh to an average of 14 points during these four contests.Bad weather
conditions won?t necessarily favor the Steelers either.The Jaguars defeated
the Steelers at Heinz Field on Dec. 16 in snow and swirling winds, 29-22.
Taylor rushed for 147 yards and quarterback David Garrard threw three
touchdown passes.The Jaguars out-gained the Steelers, 421-217, while controlling
time of possession, 37:39-22:21. The Steelers? run defense hasn?t
lived up to their lofty statistics since losing defensive lineman,Aaron Smith,
for the season. Smith was their top run stuffer.Taylor, Steven Jackson and
Musa Smith all rushed for at least 80 yards against the Steelers during the
past three weeks. Jacksonville has been playing in peak form, until resting
its starters during a meaningless regular-season finale against Houston. Prior
to that contest, Jacksonville had covered seven in a row and 11 of its past
15 games.The Jaguars have scored at least 24 points in their past 10 games.
They gained at least 400 yards in five consecutive matchups, until picking
up 381 yards against the Texans behind backup quarterback Quinn Gary
and reserve running backs. Garrard doesn?t get the attention of elite quarterbacks.
But he entered Week 17 ranked No. 3 in passing with a marvelous
18-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ben Roethlisberger has had a big
year, too, for Pittsburgh with 32 touchdown passes. But the Steelers have
done a poor job protecting him. He?s been sacked 47 times, including 24
during the last six games, before sitting out the regular-season finale against
Baltimore.The Jaguars sacked Roethlisberger five times in the team?s earlier
meeting. The Steelers are going to continue to have problems keeping
Roethlisberger upright because of two key injuries. Tackle Marvel Smith,
Pittsburgh?s best pass blocker, has missed the past few games due to a disc
problem. He?s not expected to play here.The Steelers are without their star
tailback,Willie Parker, out for the season. Not only was Parker a home-run
threat, but he kept defenses honest where they had to respect
Roethlisberger?s play-action. Najeh Davenport replaces Parker. He?s a plodder,
who scares janitors more than defenses. JACKSONVILLE 23-13.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*Seattle over Washington by 1
It took the most tragic of circumstances, but the Redskins have come
together following the funeral of slain Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor. Since
Taylor?s funeral, the Redskins have gone 4-0, salvaging a season that looked
lost. Seattle is very tough at home. Since 2001, the Seahawks are 42-14 at
Qwest Field, the second-best mark in the NFL during this span.Washington
was unable to advance in the playoffs when it last played at Seattle, losing
20-10 in 2005. Expect better from this Redskins squad. The team is more
balanced, is deeper and has a better quarterback than the 2005 team that
was led by Mark Brunell.Washington has run 128 times and thrown 122
times during the past four games. Clinton Portis has had mostly a down season,
but he?s still dangerous and not asked to carry the full load like before.
Ladell Betts is one of the better backup running backs. Todd Collins has
filled in admirably for injured Jason Campbell.The savvy veteran has completed
67-of-105 passes for 888 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions
in four games since replacing Campbell. Collins isn?t fancy, but
he?s well-versed in how Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders want their offense operated.
Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley provide reliable targets.
Seattle hasn?t allowed a 100-yard rusher at home this season.The Seahawks?
ground attack, however, has gone downhill since losing guard Steve
Hutchinson in free-agency and fullback Mack Strong to retirement. Shaun
Alexander looks old. This puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Matt
Hasselbeck, who lacks a true No. 1 type wideout. Hasselbeck has had a
strong year, though, throwing for a franchise record in passing yards. He
also has thrown 10 touchdown passes and been picked off three times in
his last four home games.The Seahawks have 45 sacks and 20 interceptions.
They?ve had 18 sacks and 17 takeaways, while allowing 15 points per contest
going into Week 17. So their defense can make big plays. But allowing
44 points to Atlanta last week is no way to get ready for the playoffs, even
though the game was meaningless. The Falcons had broken the 20-point
barrier just once during their last 11 games prior to beating the Seahawks,
44-41. Third-string quarterback Chris Redman threw four touchdowns for
Atlanta. It was the most points Seattle has yielded since 2003.The bad thing
is Mike Holmgren played his starting defense nearly the entire game, so this
can?t be blamed on inept second-stringers, although Atlanta took advantage
of several turnovers by backup quarterback Seneca Wallace.SEATTLE 21-20.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
*SEATTLE over WASHINGTON by 7
This could be like the monster movie Godzilla (Redskins) vs. Megalon (Seahawks), except with a
different ending. Godzilla, monster of the people, had more sentimental favoritism and marquee
value than Megalon, similar to what Joe Gibbs and the old-school Washington Redskins? logo
enjoy from their Nation?s Capitol home compared to the expansion-era Seahawks out in the far
Northwest. Megalon, guardian of the kingdom of Seatopia, was called upon to wreak havoc upon
invaders of the kingdom. His weaponry included: the ability to emit lightning from his arm, like
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck; jump extremely high and take flight, like Hasselbeck?s
receivers in the spread formation.You almost hate to knock the Redskins recent efforts that qualified
them for today?s role, but here they are, in reverse during their four-game winning streak to
close the regular season: Dallas didn?t care. Minnesota didn?t have a real quarterback. Fluky
weather in New York tilted that game in their direction. The Bears really stink. The Redskins have
won four in a row since the funeral of defensive back Sean Taylor. Far be it from anyone to deny
a cosmic and spiritual connection, but if they are there, no visible proof exists. The four straight
wins to get the Redskins to 9-7 SU, 7-7-2 ATS also coincide with the entry of 13-year veteran
(but lightly campaigned) quarterback Todd Collins. Making the most of his opportunity after the
?fortunate? injury to second-season starter Jason Campbell, Collins ? with a working connection
to Washington offensive coordinator Al Saunders from his days as a back-up in Kansas City --
progresses through his reads and gets rid of the ball faster than Campbell. That?s nice. So are
the names at Redskins? skill positions, like Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts in the backfield, and
Santana Moss and Chris Cooley in the passing game. But after four all-out performances have
lifted Washington to the summit, are the Seahawks ? notorious for doing only as much as they
need to do in order to get to this point ? in better position to push them off? Besides Collins being
forced to deal with some of the most difficult crowd noise in the NFL, he is passing into the
defense with the best opposing QB Rating in the NFC. The Seahawks have allowed 15 TD passes
and gotten 20 interceptions. ?He?s no Marcus Trufant,? they say about other ordinary NFC corners.
Washington has allowed 20 TD passes and made 14 interceptions, and the other side?s
quarterback has been a key performer in many more of these post-season situations. Also,
Seattle?s offensive line is probably in better shape to protect the passer and move the pile for
four quarters in a win-or-go-home game. Go, Megalon, but watch out for rain, rain, and more
rain! SEATTLE, 23-16.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE over PITTSBURGH by 3
A lot of the stats show that the Jacksonville offense has been just a little bit better than the
Steelers overall. The Steelers get 18 first downs per game, Jacksonville 19. The Steelers have
rushed for 143 yards per game, Jacksonville 157. The Steelers have thrown for 214 yards per
game, Jacksonville 220. But here is a big disparity: Jacksonville QBs were sacked for only 9
yards per game, Pittsburgh?s for 21 yards per game. That ain?t Bill Cowher on the sidelines for
the Steelers, and while Year One head coach Mike Tomlin has allowed Year One offensive coordinator
Bruce Arians to put Ben Roethlisberger on a longer leash, Big Ben has obviously gotten
tangled up in it more than he used to flop around on a shorter one. Pittsburgh?s big edge when
they won the Super Bowl two years ago was doing the sacking, and avoiding sacks on offense.
If that dynamic is lost, they must make up for it elsewhere, but the defense has only 11 interceptions
(fewest in the AFC!). Pittsburgh surrendered only 266 yards per game this season, the
fewest in the NFL, as well as the fewest points per game (15.9) prior to last Sunday?s Bizzaro
World week in terms of personnel used.But part of that stingy defensive yardage yield is a function
of the offense?s leading time of possession (33:30). Now that the rushing load has been
dumped on Najeh Davenport in the wake of Willie Parker?s injury, will the Steelers? offense be
able to command the clock? The Steelers have played only one full game since Parker?s injury
at St. Louis, and it was against a fake Baltimore team last Sunday. Davenport got some work,
but did nothing spectacular and never really has. The Jags have a mental edge with a 2-0 SU
and ATS record vs. the Steelers from last year and last month. The world is saying that the
Steelers ?won?t lose to the Jags twice on their home field within a month.? Why not?
Jacksonville has been a choking bunch of bums under Jack Del Rio and have a hump to jump,
but these things are overcome occasionally.We might find much missing magic on the Steelers?
sideline without Ken Whisenhunt calling a surprise play at the right time, and with an opposing
defense that needn?t worry about Parker busting a 65-yard run against them. Balmy temperatures
(50s) are expected to greet the Florida guests, who closed the season with five straight
400+ yards offensive games and have worked the two running-back team well for fresh, quality
legs at the right time. JACKSONVILLE, 23-20.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
*SEATTLE over WASHINGTON by 7
This could be like the monster movie Godzilla (Redskins) vs. Megalon (Seahawks), except with a
different ending. Godzilla, monster of the people, had more sentimental favoritism and marquee
value than Megalon, similar to what Joe Gibbs and the old-school Washington Redskins? logo
enjoy from their Nation?s Capitol home compared to the expansion-era Seahawks out in the far
Northwest. Megalon, guardian of the kingdom of Seatopia, was called upon to wreak havoc upon
invaders of the kingdom. His weaponry included: the ability to emit lightning from his arm, like
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck; jump extremely high and take flight, like Hasselbeck?s
receivers in the spread formation.You almost hate to knock the Redskins recent efforts that qualified
them for today?s role, but here they are, in reverse during their four-game winning streak to
close the regular season: Dallas didn?t care. Minnesota didn?t have a real quarterback. Fluky
weather in New York tilted that game in their direction. The Bears really stink. The Redskins have
won four in a row since the funeral of defensive back Sean Taylor. Far be it from anyone to deny
a cosmic and spiritual connection, but if they are there, no visible proof exists. The four straight
wins to get the Redskins to 9-7 SU, 7-7-2 ATS also coincide with the entry of 13-year veteran
(but lightly campaigned) quarterback Todd Collins. Making the most of his opportunity after the
?fortunate? injury to second-season starter Jason Campbell, Collins ? with a working connection
to Washington offensive coordinator Al Saunders from his days as a back-up in Kansas City --
progresses through his reads and gets rid of the ball faster than Campbell. That?s nice. So are
the names at Redskins? skill positions, like Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts in the backfield, and
Santana Moss and Chris Cooley in the passing game. But after four all-out performances have
lifted Washington to the summit, are the Seahawks ? notorious for doing only as much as they
need to do in order to get to this point ? in better position to push them off? Besides Collins being
forced to deal with some of the most difficult crowd noise in the NFL, he is passing into the
defense with the best opposing QB Rating in the NFC. The Seahawks have allowed 15 TD passes
and gotten 20 interceptions. ?He?s no Marcus Trufant,? they say about other ordinary NFC corners.
Washington has allowed 20 TD passes and made 14 interceptions, and the other side?s
quarterback has been a key performer in many more of these post-season situations. Also,
Seattle?s offensive line is probably in better shape to protect the passer and move the pile for
four quarters in a win-or-go-home game. Go, Megalon, but watch out for rain, rain, and more
rain! SEATTLE, 23-16.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE over PITTSBURGH by 3
A lot of the stats show that the Jacksonville offense has been just a little bit better than the
Steelers overall. The Steelers get 18 first downs per game, Jacksonville 19. The Steelers have
rushed for 143 yards per game, Jacksonville 157. The Steelers have thrown for 214 yards per
game, Jacksonville 220. But here is a big disparity: Jacksonville QBs were sacked for only 9
yards per game, Pittsburgh?s for 21 yards per game. That ain?t Bill Cowher on the sidelines for
the Steelers, and while Year One head coach Mike Tomlin has allowed Year One offensive coordinator
Bruce Arians to put Ben Roethlisberger on a longer leash, Big Ben has obviously gotten
tangled up in it more than he used to flop around on a shorter one. Pittsburgh?s big edge when
they won the Super Bowl two years ago was doing the sacking, and avoiding sacks on offense.
If that dynamic is lost, they must make up for it elsewhere, but the defense has only 11 interceptions
(fewest in the AFC!). Pittsburgh surrendered only 266 yards per game this season, the
fewest in the NFL, as well as the fewest points per game (15.9) prior to last Sunday?s Bizzaro
World week in terms of personnel used.But part of that stingy defensive yardage yield is a function
of the offense?s leading time of possession (33:30). Now that the rushing load has been
dumped on Najeh Davenport in the wake of Willie Parker?s injury, will the Steelers? offense be
able to command the clock? The Steelers have played only one full game since Parker?s injury
at St. Louis, and it was against a fake Baltimore team last Sunday. Davenport got some work,
but did nothing spectacular and never really has. The Jags have a mental edge with a 2-0 SU
and ATS record vs. the Steelers from last year and last month. The world is saying that the
Steelers ?won?t lose to the Jags twice on their home field within a month.? Why not?
Jacksonville has been a choking bunch of bums under Jack Del Rio and have a hump to jump,
but these things are overcome occasionally.We might find much missing magic on the Steelers?
sideline without Ken Whisenhunt calling a surprise play at the right time, and with an opposing
defense that needn?t worry about Parker busting a 65-yard run against them. Balmy temperatures
(50s) are expected to greet the Florida guests, who closed the season with five straight
400+ yards offensive games and have worked the two running-back team well for fresh, quality
legs at the right time. JACKSONVILLE, 23-20.
THE SPORTS MEMO
Washington +4 at Seattle O/U 40
Recommendation: Washington
It has been one hell of a run for the Washington Redskins after
being left for dead with a late season four-game losing streak.
They managed to rally, and it came from the unlikely source of
quarterback Todd Collins, who now looks like one of the top 15
signal callers in the league. And with Collins entering the picture,
we miraculously got a response out of running back Clinton Portis,
who is known for not showing up for weeks at a time. His surge
over the last three games suddenly makes the Redskins halfway
decent with the football, something they unfortunately lacked at
times with Jason Campbell under center. It certainly wasn?t all
Campbell?s fault, but Collins has produced not only great stats
and wins, but a confidence this team played much of the season
without. Seattle played not only in one of the weakest divisions in
the league, but their schedule was extremely easy. In 16 games,
they played two teams that made the playoffs and their last three
opponents finished the season a combined 16 games under .500.
In those last three games, the Seahawks went 1-2. And while we
recognize the lack of importance in some of those due to having
the NFC wrapped up weeks ago, we also feel it showcases Seattle
as no more than a slightly above average football team ? certainly
similar to what they?ll face in Washington. To really break things
down we see Seattle playing just four games against teams with
a .500 record or better. They went 2-2 SU in those four, being
outscored by a combined total of 84-78. Washington on the other
hand played 10 teams that were .500 or better, going a respectable
4-6 SU and being outscored 222-200. The Redskins? schedule
also ranked second in the league. As for strategy, Seattle has
really morphed into a pass-happy team with Shaun Alexander less
than 100% for most of the season. After ranking 18th in passing
and 10th in rushing attempts a year ago, that has now switched
to 6th in passing and 20th in rushing. Washington has been solid
against the pass, holding Brett Favre, Eli Manning and Tony Romo
to six TDs and six INTs in five games. Matt Hasselbeck put together
a monster season on paper with nearly 4,000 yards passing,
but it is hard to ignore he played 12 games against the bottom
half of the league in terms of yards per game passing allowed.
Washington?s current momentum is certainly acknowledged here,
but it is the balance on offense and continued production from the
defense that makes them the play. Throw in Seattle?s worth being
in serious question due to poor scheduling (32nd-ranked schedule)
and we see plenty of value with the battle tested Redskins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jacksonville -1 at Pittsburgh O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Jacksonville
This one has some ingredients for a little revenge factor after
Jacksonville waltzed into Heinz Field and statistically dominated
the Steelers en route to a 29-22 victory. That wasn?t even a month
ago, but things have changed dramatically for Pittsburgh after multiple
key and still lingering injuries. Jacksonville on the other hand,
continued pushing forward, looking more and more like a worthy
contestant of the Patriots if they do in fact reach that point. In fact,
the Jags are without a doubt, the sexiest team in the NFL right
now. And who could blame anyone for thinking that way? The move
to David Garrard seemed bold at the time, but the once defensiveminded,
20 points per game AFC middleweight, turned into having
one of the best and most efficient offenses in the league. Passing
the ball seems easy with Garrard, who makes few if any mistakes.
The two-headed running attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-
Drew helped make Jacksonville the No. 2-ranked rush offense in
the league. And while everyone is drooling over the Jags? offensive
explosion, few notice they still were ranked in the top 10 in almost
every defensive category. Pittsburgh just wasn?t the same team to
close out the year. Multiple injuries to key players exposed them as
no more than a slightly above average team. And injuries or not,
Jacksonville and New England both put up 421 yards of offense ?
the Pats via the pass, and the Jaguars on the ground. In fact, Pittsburgh?s
weak schedule should be noted when analyzing the stout
defensive numbers they put up. Almost half of their schedule featured
teams that ranked in the bottom ten in the league in total offense.
Ben Roethlisberger and Garrard are very similar in that they
are highly efficient and never seem to try and do too much. This
style of play and the success it equaled was a clear result of being
able to run the football. Both teams rank second and third in rushing
attempts and near the bottom in passing attempts. Pittsburgh
will still run the ball and should have success with Najeh Davenport,
but us siding with Jacksonville has little to do with Parker not being
there. The Jaguars played in the better division, beat four playoff
teams -- two of which without Garrard -- and unlike Pittsburgh,
comes into this one on a roll and relatively healthy. Don?t get intimidated
with a January playoff game in Heinz Field or the revenge
angle, you?ll end up missing out on who is the clearly better team.
Washington +4 at Seattle O/U 40
Recommendation: Washington
It has been one hell of a run for the Washington Redskins after
being left for dead with a late season four-game losing streak.
They managed to rally, and it came from the unlikely source of
quarterback Todd Collins, who now looks like one of the top 15
signal callers in the league. And with Collins entering the picture,
we miraculously got a response out of running back Clinton Portis,
who is known for not showing up for weeks at a time. His surge
over the last three games suddenly makes the Redskins halfway
decent with the football, something they unfortunately lacked at
times with Jason Campbell under center. It certainly wasn?t all
Campbell?s fault, but Collins has produced not only great stats
and wins, but a confidence this team played much of the season
without. Seattle played not only in one of the weakest divisions in
the league, but their schedule was extremely easy. In 16 games,
they played two teams that made the playoffs and their last three
opponents finished the season a combined 16 games under .500.
In those last three games, the Seahawks went 1-2. And while we
recognize the lack of importance in some of those due to having
the NFC wrapped up weeks ago, we also feel it showcases Seattle
as no more than a slightly above average football team ? certainly
similar to what they?ll face in Washington. To really break things
down we see Seattle playing just four games against teams with
a .500 record or better. They went 2-2 SU in those four, being
outscored by a combined total of 84-78. Washington on the other
hand played 10 teams that were .500 or better, going a respectable
4-6 SU and being outscored 222-200. The Redskins? schedule
also ranked second in the league. As for strategy, Seattle has
really morphed into a pass-happy team with Shaun Alexander less
than 100% for most of the season. After ranking 18th in passing
and 10th in rushing attempts a year ago, that has now switched
to 6th in passing and 20th in rushing. Washington has been solid
against the pass, holding Brett Favre, Eli Manning and Tony Romo
to six TDs and six INTs in five games. Matt Hasselbeck put together
a monster season on paper with nearly 4,000 yards passing,
but it is hard to ignore he played 12 games against the bottom
half of the league in terms of yards per game passing allowed.
Washington?s current momentum is certainly acknowledged here,
but it is the balance on offense and continued production from the
defense that makes them the play. Throw in Seattle?s worth being
in serious question due to poor scheduling (32nd-ranked schedule)
and we see plenty of value with the battle tested Redskins.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jacksonville -1 at Pittsburgh O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Jacksonville
This one has some ingredients for a little revenge factor after
Jacksonville waltzed into Heinz Field and statistically dominated
the Steelers en route to a 29-22 victory. That wasn?t even a month
ago, but things have changed dramatically for Pittsburgh after multiple
key and still lingering injuries. Jacksonville on the other hand,
continued pushing forward, looking more and more like a worthy
contestant of the Patriots if they do in fact reach that point. In fact,
the Jags are without a doubt, the sexiest team in the NFL right
now. And who could blame anyone for thinking that way? The move
to David Garrard seemed bold at the time, but the once defensiveminded,
20 points per game AFC middleweight, turned into having
one of the best and most efficient offenses in the league. Passing
the ball seems easy with Garrard, who makes few if any mistakes.
The two-headed running attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-
Drew helped make Jacksonville the No. 2-ranked rush offense in
the league. And while everyone is drooling over the Jags? offensive
explosion, few notice they still were ranked in the top 10 in almost
every defensive category. Pittsburgh just wasn?t the same team to
close out the year. Multiple injuries to key players exposed them as
no more than a slightly above average team. And injuries or not,
Jacksonville and New England both put up 421 yards of offense ?
the Pats via the pass, and the Jaguars on the ground. In fact, Pittsburgh?s
weak schedule should be noted when analyzing the stout
defensive numbers they put up. Almost half of their schedule featured
teams that ranked in the bottom ten in the league in total offense.
Ben Roethlisberger and Garrard are very similar in that they
are highly efficient and never seem to try and do too much. This
style of play and the success it equaled was a clear result of being
able to run the football. Both teams rank second and third in rushing
attempts and near the bottom in passing attempts. Pittsburgh
will still run the ball and should have success with Najeh Davenport,
but us siding with Jacksonville has little to do with Parker not being
there. The Jaguars played in the better division, beat four playoff
teams -- two of which without Garrard -- and unlike Pittsburgh,
comes into this one on a roll and relatively healthy. Don?t get intimidated
with a January playoff game in Heinz Field or the revenge
angle, you?ll end up missing out on who is the clearly better team.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
The Jaguars are 10-2 ATS vs their former AFC Central foe & have won & covered the L3 meetings incl a
29-22 win as a 3.5 pt AD just 3 weeks ago. JAX went into PIT & beat them at their own game as they outrushed
PIT 224 (5.3) to 111 (6.5) & outgained them 421-217 overall. The Jags D sacked Roethlisberger 5 times &
held him to 146 yds passing (48%) as he passed for 3 TD?s. The Steelers only had 89 yds thru 3Q & afterward
Jags HC Del Rio bragged that he had ?a warm weather team built for the cold.? There are only 2 common foes
(DEN, BUF) with the Jags going 2-0 SU & ATS with a 371-281 yd edge (+3 TO?s). PIT is 1-1 SU & ATS with a
400-274 yd edge with 3 TO?s vs DEN costing them the game. PIT is 6-1 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a 315-219
yd edge & 25-12 avg score. JAX is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS on the road with a 351-321 yd edge & 25-24 avg score
as they rested Garrard & both Jones-Drew & Taylor at HOU. JAX has played our #12 schedule & is 3-3 SU &
4-2 ATS vs winning teams being outgained 357-284 & outscored 21-20. PIT (#31 sked) has 5 games vs foes
with a winning record finishing 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS with a 364-237 yd edge & 25-17 avg score. PIT has 5 Pro
Bowlers while the Jags stunningly have none. Del Rio is 0-1 SU & ATS in the playoffs & while this is Tomlin?s
1st playoff appearance DC ****** & most of the roster have been here before.
The Steelers went outside the organization & hired former MIN DC Mike Tomlin who is a Dungy disciple.
They run a 3 WR offense to spread the defense out & open up rushing lanes under OC Bruce Arians. Willie
Parker was leading the NFL in rushing when he broke his leg vs STL & landed on the IR. PIT will now roll
with Najeh Davenport at RB & he is more of a between the tackles power runner than Parker. While he
doesn?t have Parker?s big play potential he is a much needed upgrade in pass protection. The OL has really
struggled in pass protection as they haven?t fully adjusted to the retirement of Ctr Hartings & LT Smith is
expected to miss this game due to back surgery. While Roethlisberger is 2nd in the NFL with a 104.1 QBR,
he has been sacked 47 times which is 2nd only to Kitna. PIT has a potent receiving unit with Ward being
the reliable possession WR, Holmes being the deep threat (18.1 ypc) & Miller being a solid pass catching
TE while Spaeth is the blocking & short area TE. The Steelers have the #1 defense but have some recent
holes in it much like the offense as they lost one of their best defenders in DE Aaron Smith (torn biceps)
vs NE. They are also struggling at both safety spots as Polomalu (knee) has missed 5 games & are down
to their #3 FS with Ryan Clark on IR (spleen) & Anthony Smith benched due to poor play. PIT?s #3 pass
defense has been helped out by poor QB?s & bad weather but has given up a 11-3 ratio the L4W. PIT also
has our #24 special teams unit & has given up some big plays to opposing teams.
The Jags surprised the NFL by cutting Byron Leftwich just before season started & going with David Garrard.
Garrard has been very efficient (18-3 ratio) & didn?t throw his 1st int until the 2nd IND game. He is a good fit in
OC Dirk Koetter?s offense & after scoring 24 or more points only 19 times in Del Rio?s 1st 4 years JAX has hit
the number 11 times TY. Since his return from an ankle injury in mid-Nov, JAX is avg an NFL best 34 ppg (NE
29.7). The Jags are actually a more balanced offense than LY & Fred Taylor has avg?d 120 ypg (7.7) in his L5
games. JAX doesn?t have standout talent at the WR spot but Reggie Williams is becoming a quality scoring threat
with 10 TD?s & Northcutt is one of the better slot WR?s in the NFL. JAX OL has started the L8 games together
are 15th in the NFL in sacks as Garrard is being sacked once every 15.5 pass att?s. The Jags #12 defense
has always had a reputation of being physical & is only allowing 88 ypg (3.9) rushing on the year if the season
opener vs TEN is omitted. While they did lose DT Stroud (ankle) they picked up Grady Jackson after he was
cut by ATL & he has been a very good next to John Henderson. JAX could get MLB Peterson back here from
a broken hand but WLB Daryl Smith has done an excellent job in his place. JAX #15 pass defense is headed
by Rashean Mathis who is a lockdown CB & rookie FS Reggie Nelson leads the team with 5 int. The Jaguars
have a big edge with our #7 special teams unit holding teams to just 7.8 ypc on PR?s & 19.7 ypc on KR?s.
While both teams rested key players LW the Jaguars did it out of luxury while PIT did it out of necessity
as they are a very beat up team. JAX is not a team that is easily intimidated & PIT lacks the same intensity
it had under Cowher. The key here will be JAX #7 pass rush vs an OL that is allowing Roethlisberger to get
sacks once every 8.6 pass att?s. Over the L6W JAX has outgained foes 416-252 (+3 TO?s) with a 34-21 avg
score & while it is tough to beat the same twice in a year we side with the hungrier team with the better
offense, defense & special teams.
FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 24 Pittsburgh 16 RATING: 2★
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This is rematch of the 2005 CSF?s as the Seahawks edged the Redskins 20-10 as a 9.5 pt HF. After
a strong opening drive by SEA ended with a fumble on the WAS 11, SEA RB Alexander was KO?d with a
concussion. WAS recovered a muffed punt to set up a 26 yd FG but SEA went up 17-3 in the 3Q. WAS went
76 yds for a TD to make it 17-10 & SEA hit a 31 yd FG with 2:54 left & fended off WAS?s final drive. WAS
has faced a brutal sked TY (1st) & is 1-5 SU & 2-3-1 ATS vs foes with a winning record. SEA has only had
3 games vs winning teams (1-2 SU & ATS) & has faced our #32 sked. There are 4 common foes (TB, ARZ,
CHI & PHI) with SEA going 4-1 SU & ATS with a 28-19 avg score. WAS is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS with a 21-20
avg score. SEA is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS with the #5 & #13 units at home (+12 TO?s) in the incredibly loud Qwest
Field. WAS is 4-4 SU & 4-3-1 ATS on the road with the #9 & #12 road units (-8 TO?s). While Gibbs does have
an outstanding 17-6 SU & ATS record this is only his 2nd playoff game this time around. WAS has 3 Pro
Bowlers in TE Cooley, LT Samuels & the late Sean Taylor while SEA has 6 with 4 on the defense.
Despite the coaching blunder vs BUF, Gibbs has done a great job TY considering the injuries & tragedy.
After starting 4-2 WAS lost 5 core starters including CB Rogers, S Taylor, RG Thomas, WLB McIntosh &
QB Campbell. The loss of Campbell looked to be the final straw but Todd Collins has rattled off 4 straight
wins (4-0 ATS) after not playing in a game for 10 years. There is an outside chance Campbell (dislocated
kneecap) could play here but he?d need half a game to shake off the rust. Portis only has four 100 yd games
TY but that is mainly due to the fact the right side of the OL has forced 8 different starting lineups. The main
passing weapons are WR Moss & TE Cooley who have combined for 31 rec?s (16.8) & 3 TD with Collins.
Randle El has been a decent #2 WR but the top 3 pass catchers have only had three 100 yd receiving games
TY. WAS runs a base Cover-2 & DC Williams opted for a more conservative style for the 1st 10 games only
blitzing 20% of the time. Over the final 6 games he ramped it up to 45% & DE Carter leads the team with
10.5 sacks. The rest of the team only accounts for 22.5 sacks though & WAS has held foes to 10 or less
only 3 times TY & DAL didn?t care LW. WAS has held 10 foes to under 100 yds rushing with 128 ypg (4.9)
avg in the rest. After going -8 in TO?s vs PHI, DAL, TB & BUF losing by a combined 20 pts WAS wrapped
up the final 4 games +4 TO?s winning by 52 pts. MLB Fletcher has been a huge asset with his leadership
but the loss of WLB McIntosh (knee) is a blow to the overall speed on defense. The losses of S Taylor & CB
Rogers means half the starting secondary is gone & CB Springs is playing thru a back injury. WAS has our
#9 special teams unit being in the top third in KR (23.8) & are very good return defenses.
It?s not often that a team wins its 4th straight division title & is regarded as flying under the radar but that?s what
SEA has done TY. The Seahawks offense underwent a major shift after the CLE game as broken ribs & a left wrist
injury slowed RB Alexander down to 62 ypg (3.3) over the 1st 8 games & while SEA avg 338 ypg & 21 ppg they
were only 4-4 (3-5 ATS). Afterward Holmgren put the ball into Hasselbeck?s & his now-healthy WR corps? hands
& while they only gained 361 ypg (28 ppg), they went 6-2 SU & ATS. Hasselbeck has passed for 243 ypg (64%)
with a 15-5 ratio (94.0 QBR) in the L8W making the Pro Bowl with WR Engram having a career year. Holmgren
is running 4-WR sets with Branch being the speed threat & Burleson going over the middle with Hackett working
the slot. SEA?s OL started the 1st 15 games together with LT Jones being rested vs ATL. SEA made a pair of
great pickups by acquiring DE Kerney (14.5) who is 2007?s sack king to bolster the DL & Jim Mora Jr to coach
the DB?s & be Holmgren?s eventual successor. CB Trufant became a complete CB & is off to his 1st Pro Bowl but
the LB unit is the backbone of the SEA defense. Pro Bowl LB?s Tatupu & Peterson are an outstanding tandem &
SLB Hill is very underrated. SEA?s #19 pass defense is highly underrated as they are allowing 59% with a 15-20
ratio (73.0 QBR). SEA is 13th in our special teams rankings & K Josh Brown has a solid rep as a game winner.
WAS has done a great job in making the post season despite extreme circumstances. They now have to
go on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks to one of the loudest venues in the NFL. SEA is a much healthier
team here & rested starters in the 2H vs ATL while WAS had to play a full 4Q vs DAL. There is an NFL adage
that opposing DC?s need 4 games to detect tendencies in new QB?s before they gain the advantage. WAS
will try to establish Portis & wear down SEA defense but SEA has the speed to contain him & DE Kerney
will line up vs the depleted right side & pressure Collins. SEA gets a good matchup with their 4-WR set vs
a very thin WAS secondary & Hasselbeck will make this a comfortable win for the home team.
FORECAST: SEATTLE 24 Washington 13 RATING: 2★
The Jaguars are 10-2 ATS vs their former AFC Central foe & have won & covered the L3 meetings incl a
29-22 win as a 3.5 pt AD just 3 weeks ago. JAX went into PIT & beat them at their own game as they outrushed
PIT 224 (5.3) to 111 (6.5) & outgained them 421-217 overall. The Jags D sacked Roethlisberger 5 times &
held him to 146 yds passing (48%) as he passed for 3 TD?s. The Steelers only had 89 yds thru 3Q & afterward
Jags HC Del Rio bragged that he had ?a warm weather team built for the cold.? There are only 2 common foes
(DEN, BUF) with the Jags going 2-0 SU & ATS with a 371-281 yd edge (+3 TO?s). PIT is 1-1 SU & ATS with a
400-274 yd edge with 3 TO?s vs DEN costing them the game. PIT is 6-1 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a 315-219
yd edge & 25-12 avg score. JAX is 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS on the road with a 351-321 yd edge & 25-24 avg score
as they rested Garrard & both Jones-Drew & Taylor at HOU. JAX has played our #12 schedule & is 3-3 SU &
4-2 ATS vs winning teams being outgained 357-284 & outscored 21-20. PIT (#31 sked) has 5 games vs foes
with a winning record finishing 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS with a 364-237 yd edge & 25-17 avg score. PIT has 5 Pro
Bowlers while the Jags stunningly have none. Del Rio is 0-1 SU & ATS in the playoffs & while this is Tomlin?s
1st playoff appearance DC ****** & most of the roster have been here before.
The Steelers went outside the organization & hired former MIN DC Mike Tomlin who is a Dungy disciple.
They run a 3 WR offense to spread the defense out & open up rushing lanes under OC Bruce Arians. Willie
Parker was leading the NFL in rushing when he broke his leg vs STL & landed on the IR. PIT will now roll
with Najeh Davenport at RB & he is more of a between the tackles power runner than Parker. While he
doesn?t have Parker?s big play potential he is a much needed upgrade in pass protection. The OL has really
struggled in pass protection as they haven?t fully adjusted to the retirement of Ctr Hartings & LT Smith is
expected to miss this game due to back surgery. While Roethlisberger is 2nd in the NFL with a 104.1 QBR,
he has been sacked 47 times which is 2nd only to Kitna. PIT has a potent receiving unit with Ward being
the reliable possession WR, Holmes being the deep threat (18.1 ypc) & Miller being a solid pass catching
TE while Spaeth is the blocking & short area TE. The Steelers have the #1 defense but have some recent
holes in it much like the offense as they lost one of their best defenders in DE Aaron Smith (torn biceps)
vs NE. They are also struggling at both safety spots as Polomalu (knee) has missed 5 games & are down
to their #3 FS with Ryan Clark on IR (spleen) & Anthony Smith benched due to poor play. PIT?s #3 pass
defense has been helped out by poor QB?s & bad weather but has given up a 11-3 ratio the L4W. PIT also
has our #24 special teams unit & has given up some big plays to opposing teams.
The Jags surprised the NFL by cutting Byron Leftwich just before season started & going with David Garrard.
Garrard has been very efficient (18-3 ratio) & didn?t throw his 1st int until the 2nd IND game. He is a good fit in
OC Dirk Koetter?s offense & after scoring 24 or more points only 19 times in Del Rio?s 1st 4 years JAX has hit
the number 11 times TY. Since his return from an ankle injury in mid-Nov, JAX is avg an NFL best 34 ppg (NE
29.7). The Jags are actually a more balanced offense than LY & Fred Taylor has avg?d 120 ypg (7.7) in his L5
games. JAX doesn?t have standout talent at the WR spot but Reggie Williams is becoming a quality scoring threat
with 10 TD?s & Northcutt is one of the better slot WR?s in the NFL. JAX OL has started the L8 games together
are 15th in the NFL in sacks as Garrard is being sacked once every 15.5 pass att?s. The Jags #12 defense
has always had a reputation of being physical & is only allowing 88 ypg (3.9) rushing on the year if the season
opener vs TEN is omitted. While they did lose DT Stroud (ankle) they picked up Grady Jackson after he was
cut by ATL & he has been a very good next to John Henderson. JAX could get MLB Peterson back here from
a broken hand but WLB Daryl Smith has done an excellent job in his place. JAX #15 pass defense is headed
by Rashean Mathis who is a lockdown CB & rookie FS Reggie Nelson leads the team with 5 int. The Jaguars
have a big edge with our #7 special teams unit holding teams to just 7.8 ypc on PR?s & 19.7 ypc on KR?s.
While both teams rested key players LW the Jaguars did it out of luxury while PIT did it out of necessity
as they are a very beat up team. JAX is not a team that is easily intimidated & PIT lacks the same intensity
it had under Cowher. The key here will be JAX #7 pass rush vs an OL that is allowing Roethlisberger to get
sacks once every 8.6 pass att?s. Over the L6W JAX has outgained foes 416-252 (+3 TO?s) with a 34-21 avg
score & while it is tough to beat the same twice in a year we side with the hungrier team with the better
offense, defense & special teams.
FORECAST: JACKSONVILLE 24 Pittsburgh 16 RATING: 2★
----------------------------------------------------------------------
This is rematch of the 2005 CSF?s as the Seahawks edged the Redskins 20-10 as a 9.5 pt HF. After
a strong opening drive by SEA ended with a fumble on the WAS 11, SEA RB Alexander was KO?d with a
concussion. WAS recovered a muffed punt to set up a 26 yd FG but SEA went up 17-3 in the 3Q. WAS went
76 yds for a TD to make it 17-10 & SEA hit a 31 yd FG with 2:54 left & fended off WAS?s final drive. WAS
has faced a brutal sked TY (1st) & is 1-5 SU & 2-3-1 ATS vs foes with a winning record. SEA has only had
3 games vs winning teams (1-2 SU & ATS) & has faced our #32 sked. There are 4 common foes (TB, ARZ,
CHI & PHI) with SEA going 4-1 SU & ATS with a 28-19 avg score. WAS is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS with a 21-20
avg score. SEA is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS with the #5 & #13 units at home (+12 TO?s) in the incredibly loud Qwest
Field. WAS is 4-4 SU & 4-3-1 ATS on the road with the #9 & #12 road units (-8 TO?s). While Gibbs does have
an outstanding 17-6 SU & ATS record this is only his 2nd playoff game this time around. WAS has 3 Pro
Bowlers in TE Cooley, LT Samuels & the late Sean Taylor while SEA has 6 with 4 on the defense.
Despite the coaching blunder vs BUF, Gibbs has done a great job TY considering the injuries & tragedy.
After starting 4-2 WAS lost 5 core starters including CB Rogers, S Taylor, RG Thomas, WLB McIntosh &
QB Campbell. The loss of Campbell looked to be the final straw but Todd Collins has rattled off 4 straight
wins (4-0 ATS) after not playing in a game for 10 years. There is an outside chance Campbell (dislocated
kneecap) could play here but he?d need half a game to shake off the rust. Portis only has four 100 yd games
TY but that is mainly due to the fact the right side of the OL has forced 8 different starting lineups. The main
passing weapons are WR Moss & TE Cooley who have combined for 31 rec?s (16.8) & 3 TD with Collins.
Randle El has been a decent #2 WR but the top 3 pass catchers have only had three 100 yd receiving games
TY. WAS runs a base Cover-2 & DC Williams opted for a more conservative style for the 1st 10 games only
blitzing 20% of the time. Over the final 6 games he ramped it up to 45% & DE Carter leads the team with
10.5 sacks. The rest of the team only accounts for 22.5 sacks though & WAS has held foes to 10 or less
only 3 times TY & DAL didn?t care LW. WAS has held 10 foes to under 100 yds rushing with 128 ypg (4.9)
avg in the rest. After going -8 in TO?s vs PHI, DAL, TB & BUF losing by a combined 20 pts WAS wrapped
up the final 4 games +4 TO?s winning by 52 pts. MLB Fletcher has been a huge asset with his leadership
but the loss of WLB McIntosh (knee) is a blow to the overall speed on defense. The losses of S Taylor & CB
Rogers means half the starting secondary is gone & CB Springs is playing thru a back injury. WAS has our
#9 special teams unit being in the top third in KR (23.8) & are very good return defenses.
It?s not often that a team wins its 4th straight division title & is regarded as flying under the radar but that?s what
SEA has done TY. The Seahawks offense underwent a major shift after the CLE game as broken ribs & a left wrist
injury slowed RB Alexander down to 62 ypg (3.3) over the 1st 8 games & while SEA avg 338 ypg & 21 ppg they
were only 4-4 (3-5 ATS). Afterward Holmgren put the ball into Hasselbeck?s & his now-healthy WR corps? hands
& while they only gained 361 ypg (28 ppg), they went 6-2 SU & ATS. Hasselbeck has passed for 243 ypg (64%)
with a 15-5 ratio (94.0 QBR) in the L8W making the Pro Bowl with WR Engram having a career year. Holmgren
is running 4-WR sets with Branch being the speed threat & Burleson going over the middle with Hackett working
the slot. SEA?s OL started the 1st 15 games together with LT Jones being rested vs ATL. SEA made a pair of
great pickups by acquiring DE Kerney (14.5) who is 2007?s sack king to bolster the DL & Jim Mora Jr to coach
the DB?s & be Holmgren?s eventual successor. CB Trufant became a complete CB & is off to his 1st Pro Bowl but
the LB unit is the backbone of the SEA defense. Pro Bowl LB?s Tatupu & Peterson are an outstanding tandem &
SLB Hill is very underrated. SEA?s #19 pass defense is highly underrated as they are allowing 59% with a 15-20
ratio (73.0 QBR). SEA is 13th in our special teams rankings & K Josh Brown has a solid rep as a game winner.
WAS has done a great job in making the post season despite extreme circumstances. They now have to
go on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks to one of the loudest venues in the NFL. SEA is a much healthier
team here & rested starters in the 2H vs ATL while WAS had to play a full 4Q vs DAL. There is an NFL adage
that opposing DC?s need 4 games to detect tendencies in new QB?s before they gain the advantage. WAS
will try to establish Portis & wear down SEA defense but SEA has the speed to contain him & DE Kerney
will line up vs the depleted right side & pressure Collins. SEA gets a good matchup with their 4-WR set vs
a very thin WAS secondary & Hasselbeck will make this a comfortable win for the home team.
FORECAST: SEATTLE 24 Washington 13 RATING: 2★
THE GOLD SHEET
Washington 20 - SEATTLE 17?This is only the second playoff for the
Redskins in the last eight years, while it?s the fifth straight postseason for the
Seahawks. But, in the last four weeks, Washington has shown everything
needed to make it the percentage side as an underdog.
First and foremost, the ultra-preparded Todd Collins has come off the bench
and to be everything a veteran backup QB should be. Fully knowledgeable of
the offense (Joe Gibbs says he even corrects the coaches at times!). Avoiding
mistakes (5 TDs, zero ints. in 3+ games of action). And the provider of
leadership, poise and hope to a team that could have been excused for ?going
South? amid self-pity following the midseason shooting death of S Sean Taylor.
When Washington could have collapsed, Collins stood tall, ran the offense with
aplomb, and got the ball at the right time to playmakers such as RB Clinton Portis,
WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, and TE/H-B Chris Cooley. And
the defense gave up only 13 ppg as the Skins won & covered their last four
games after blunders by the coaching staff helped put the team?s playoff
hopes in jeopardy.
This is in no way to knock the Seahawks, who edged ?offense-less?
Washington 20-10 two years ago in Seattle on their way to the Super Bowl. It?s
just to recognize the value of a tough-minded underdog such as the Redskins,
who have achieved a spot in this game by fighting through the much-tougher
NFC East while the Seahawks?no longer spurred by dominating force of
Shaun Alexander?s running as they were in 2005?had the fortune of choosing
their moments in the less-fearsome NFC West. And having played at raucous
Qwest Field two years ago, Washington?s veteran offensive line has the
experience to deal with noise/false start element better than most visitors.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*Jacksonville 26 - PITTSBURGH 20?We?ve learned throughout the years
that regular-season matchups between playoff contestants are hardly
foolproof indicators of what?s to come in the postseason. On the other hand,
sometimes they are. Therefore, a quick revisit of Jacksonville?s 29-22 win at
Heinz Field December 16 is probably in order.
Pittsburgh entered that contest having won seven straight at home, but was
on its heels from the outset, as Jacksonville proved more than a physical match
for the Men of Steel. In particular, the Jags were able to control the line of
scrimmage and to establish the run, with Fred Taylor becoming the first
opposing RB in 30 games to crack the 100-yard barrier at Heinz Field, finishing
with 147 YR. (Perhaps Taylor is motivated by the aroma wafting from the
nearby Primanti Brothers sandwich stands, as he?s gained a whopping 381
yards his last two visits to the Steel City.) Along with Maurice Jones-Drew?s 69
YR, the Jags compiled an eye-opening 224 YR. Indeed, Jacksonville was
cruising by a 22-7 margin early in the 4th Q when the Steelers crawled back into
the game, taking advantage of a rare David Garrard interception (of which there
were only 3 all season) to set up a Ben Roethlisberger TD pass to Hines Ward,
then leveling matters when Roethlisberger connected with Nate Washington
with less than 6 minutes to play. Undaunted, Garrard responded with a gamewinning
73-yard drive, capped by Taylor?s 12-yard TD run in the final two
minutes. When the dust settled, Jax had accumulated a hefty 421-217
yardage advantage, with Big Ben absorbing 5 sacks from the dominating Jag
defensive front.
Will things be any different in the rematch? We?re not convinced.
Remember, things haven?t gotten much better for Pittsburgh since that defeat,
especially with top rusher Willie Parker lost for the season with a broken leg
suffered Dec. 20 at St. Louis. Deputy Najeh Davenport, while serviceable, lacks
Parker?s breakaway burst, and nagging injuries to Big Ben (shoulder, ankle) &
key LT Marvel Smith (back) are other negatives. And if Jacksonville is once
again able to establish Taylor and Jones-Drew on the ground, Steeler d.c. Dick
****** will have fewer chances to unleash his vaunted zone blitzes.
Winning once in a season in Pittsburgh is impressive, much less twice. But
the Steelers? normal physical style plays right into the hands of the imposing
Jags, who appear to be ?built? for the sort of inclement weather conditions
they?ll likely encounter again at the confluence of the Ohio, Allegheny, and
Monongahela. And the thought persists that banged-up Pittsburgh might have
peaked a bit too early in ?07, while J?ville appears to have hit its stride at just the
right time.
Washington 20 - SEATTLE 17?This is only the second playoff for the
Redskins in the last eight years, while it?s the fifth straight postseason for the
Seahawks. But, in the last four weeks, Washington has shown everything
needed to make it the percentage side as an underdog.
First and foremost, the ultra-preparded Todd Collins has come off the bench
and to be everything a veteran backup QB should be. Fully knowledgeable of
the offense (Joe Gibbs says he even corrects the coaches at times!). Avoiding
mistakes (5 TDs, zero ints. in 3+ games of action). And the provider of
leadership, poise and hope to a team that could have been excused for ?going
South? amid self-pity following the midseason shooting death of S Sean Taylor.
When Washington could have collapsed, Collins stood tall, ran the offense with
aplomb, and got the ball at the right time to playmakers such as RB Clinton Portis,
WRs Santana Moss & Antwaan Randle El, and TE/H-B Chris Cooley. And
the defense gave up only 13 ppg as the Skins won & covered their last four
games after blunders by the coaching staff helped put the team?s playoff
hopes in jeopardy.
This is in no way to knock the Seahawks, who edged ?offense-less?
Washington 20-10 two years ago in Seattle on their way to the Super Bowl. It?s
just to recognize the value of a tough-minded underdog such as the Redskins,
who have achieved a spot in this game by fighting through the much-tougher
NFC East while the Seahawks?no longer spurred by dominating force of
Shaun Alexander?s running as they were in 2005?had the fortune of choosing
their moments in the less-fearsome NFC West. And having played at raucous
Qwest Field two years ago, Washington?s veteran offensive line has the
experience to deal with noise/false start element better than most visitors.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
*Jacksonville 26 - PITTSBURGH 20?We?ve learned throughout the years
that regular-season matchups between playoff contestants are hardly
foolproof indicators of what?s to come in the postseason. On the other hand,
sometimes they are. Therefore, a quick revisit of Jacksonville?s 29-22 win at
Heinz Field December 16 is probably in order.
Pittsburgh entered that contest having won seven straight at home, but was
on its heels from the outset, as Jacksonville proved more than a physical match
for the Men of Steel. In particular, the Jags were able to control the line of
scrimmage and to establish the run, with Fred Taylor becoming the first
opposing RB in 30 games to crack the 100-yard barrier at Heinz Field, finishing
with 147 YR. (Perhaps Taylor is motivated by the aroma wafting from the
nearby Primanti Brothers sandwich stands, as he?s gained a whopping 381
yards his last two visits to the Steel City.) Along with Maurice Jones-Drew?s 69
YR, the Jags compiled an eye-opening 224 YR. Indeed, Jacksonville was
cruising by a 22-7 margin early in the 4th Q when the Steelers crawled back into
the game, taking advantage of a rare David Garrard interception (of which there
were only 3 all season) to set up a Ben Roethlisberger TD pass to Hines Ward,
then leveling matters when Roethlisberger connected with Nate Washington
with less than 6 minutes to play. Undaunted, Garrard responded with a gamewinning
73-yard drive, capped by Taylor?s 12-yard TD run in the final two
minutes. When the dust settled, Jax had accumulated a hefty 421-217
yardage advantage, with Big Ben absorbing 5 sacks from the dominating Jag
defensive front.
Will things be any different in the rematch? We?re not convinced.
Remember, things haven?t gotten much better for Pittsburgh since that defeat,
especially with top rusher Willie Parker lost for the season with a broken leg
suffered Dec. 20 at St. Louis. Deputy Najeh Davenport, while serviceable, lacks
Parker?s breakaway burst, and nagging injuries to Big Ben (shoulder, ankle) &
key LT Marvel Smith (back) are other negatives. And if Jacksonville is once
again able to establish Taylor and Jones-Drew on the ground, Steeler d.c. Dick
****** will have fewer chances to unleash his vaunted zone blitzes.
Winning once in a season in Pittsburgh is impressive, much less twice. But
the Steelers? normal physical style plays right into the hands of the imposing
Jags, who appear to be ?built? for the sort of inclement weather conditions
they?ll likely encounter again at the confluence of the Ohio, Allegheny, and
Monongahela. And the thought persists that banged-up Pittsburgh might have
peaked a bit too early in ?07, while J?ville appears to have hit its stride at just the
right time.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Washington over SEATTLE by 1
Redskins continue their storybook run into the playoffs when
they invade Seattle with playoff revenge on their minds from
a 20-10 setback suffered here in the 2005 post-season. That
win snapped a four game losing skein by the Seahawks in
this series while also improving Mike Holmgren?s career mark
to 1-4 SUATS against Washington. And while we?re talking
coach-speak, Skins? mentor Joe Gibbs takes a back seat to
no one when it comes to the playoffs, where he is 18-7 SU &
19-6 ATS in his NFL career with Washington. Inside those
numbers is an eye-popping 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS log as a playoff
dog of 7 or less points! While it?s difficult fading home teams
in initial playoff games (135-55 SU & 104-80-6 ATS since
1980), the Hogs look mighty good as dogs to us
----------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH over Jacksonville by 3
These same two teams met on this field three weeks ago
when the Jags prevailed by seven points ? as 3.5 point dogs.
The loss of RB Willie Parker now has the line crossing over
the other way, and with it an abundance of home dog theories
come to the forefront. For openers, home teams in the postseason
not required to lay points (pick-or-dog) are 16-8 SU
& 17-7 ATS. If they are seeking revenge they skyrocket to
10-2 SUATS. Jacksonville has had no problem scoring points
of late, putting 24 or more on the scoreboard in each of their
last ten contests. That fits well into the fact that the last 23
road teams in the playoffs who managed to score 24 or more
points are 20-3 ATS. The bottom line is we can?t turn our
back on this top-ranked defense, off a loss with revenge, in
the Ketchup Bottle.
Washington over SEATTLE by 1
Redskins continue their storybook run into the playoffs when
they invade Seattle with playoff revenge on their minds from
a 20-10 setback suffered here in the 2005 post-season. That
win snapped a four game losing skein by the Seahawks in
this series while also improving Mike Holmgren?s career mark
to 1-4 SUATS against Washington. And while we?re talking
coach-speak, Skins? mentor Joe Gibbs takes a back seat to
no one when it comes to the playoffs, where he is 18-7 SU &
19-6 ATS in his NFL career with Washington. Inside those
numbers is an eye-popping 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS log as a playoff
dog of 7 or less points! While it?s difficult fading home teams
in initial playoff games (135-55 SU & 104-80-6 ATS since
1980), the Hogs look mighty good as dogs to us
----------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH over Jacksonville by 3
These same two teams met on this field three weeks ago
when the Jags prevailed by seven points ? as 3.5 point dogs.
The loss of RB Willie Parker now has the line crossing over
the other way, and with it an abundance of home dog theories
come to the forefront. For openers, home teams in the postseason
not required to lay points (pick-or-dog) are 16-8 SU
& 17-7 ATS. If they are seeking revenge they skyrocket to
10-2 SUATS. Jacksonville has had no problem scoring points
of late, putting 24 or more on the scoreboard in each of their
last ten contests. That fits well into the fact that the last 23
road teams in the playoffs who managed to score 24 or more
points are 20-3 ATS. The bottom line is we can?t turn our
back on this top-ranked defense, off a loss with revenge, in
the Ketchup Bottle.
THE MAX
NFL Wild Card Round
Saturday, January 5th, 2007
Redskins @ Seahawks
January 5th, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Line: Seahawks ?3? , 40
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Redskins are a great story, they went from an
underachieving team that blew games in the clutch
with no help from their befuddled geriatric coach to
the hottest team in the NFC while the ink dries on
the new Gibbs contract. It is unfortunate that it
took Sean Taylor?s death to make that happen. And
Talyor wasn?t the only adversity this team has faced.
The loss of Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas, the right
side of the offensive line, was huge. Shawn Springs
is playing with a heavy heart as his dad is in a coma.
Developing young quarterback Jason Campbell was
knocked out for the season. This team has suffered
just a ton of adversity.
Obviously Joe Gibbs has done a tremendous job
keeping this team together. The emergence of Todd
Collins is a big part of that story. To not start a
game for a decade but maintain the ability to come
in and play at a high level without making mistakes
is extraordinary. Clinton Portis is proving to be a lot
more solid down the stretch than he is in training
camp.
Seattle has really given the impression of a team
that can turn things on and off at will over the past
couple of years. And lately they?ve been turning
things on, especially at home where they?ve scored
24 points or more in five straight Qwest Field
outings. Seahawks, even though they rested their
starters in their loss in Atlanta, Sunday, have had a
vicious stretch of travel lately. In December they
had East Coast, home, East Coast, home, East
Coast. Simply taking that round trip three times can
wear you down. Hasselbeck (wrist injury Sunday
not serious) is playing extremely well and Shaun
Alexander is no longer MIA.
The Redskins are a very competitive team. Other
than their 52-7 annihilation at the hands of New
England, this is a team that never lost a game by
more than a TD. Obviously the line is shorter than
that here but the fact is this is a team that was
simply in every single ballgame. And coaching
decisions and clock management issues cost them a
couple of those close games. But this is a very
dangerous team. Seattle is a fine team but they?ll
have their hands full in this one. An outright upset
by red-hot Washington would be no surprise.
Redskins by 1.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jaguars @ Steelers
January 5th, 2007, 8:00PM EST
Line: Jaguars ?1? , 39?
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
After catching a field goal with Jacksonville a couple
of weeks ago, obviously there?s a significant
adjustment in the line based on the pounding that
the Jags dished out on this field on December 16th.
Jacksonville cruised to a 421-217 yardage advantage
and it took a late charge by the Steelers to make the
29-22 final look respectable.
Roethlisberger was sacked 47 times this year but
has been very accurate. The Steelers have
averaged 24 points per game, so their offense has
been no slouch. But the defense, though it has
good statistics over the full season, has really
struggled lately. Even if you ignore the matador
efforts by backups in the meaningless loss at
Baltimore Sunday, there is still cause for concern.
After shutting out Miami on a horrific field and
holding the Bengals to 10 points on a bad field, the
Steelers allowed 34, 29, and 24 points in their next
three games. The tackling and toughness on
defense has been severely lacking. But this is a
veteran team that has won a lot of postseason
games, and probably feel they have the ability to
turn it on as needed. And let?s remember that the
Colts were hardly and impressive defensive unit
entering the playoffs last year and they ?peaked to
their potential?. But the ability to do that is rare,
and we?ll consider the Steelers recent weak
showings to be more important than what they were
doing earlier in the season or a couple of years ago.
With David Garrard (18 touchdowns, 3 interceptions)
in the lineup, the Jaguars have been an offensive
force. Since his return to the lineup, the Jaguars
have scored 28, 24, 36, 25, 37, 29, and 49 points
before scoring 28 behind Quinn Gray in a ?starters
sit? situation in Houston. And Fred Taylor has the
running game revved ups as well. They take on a
Steelers team that has some skill position people
who have scored points in postseason scenarios in
the past. With Willie Parker, who was the leading
rusher in the league when he went down with an
injury a couple of weeks ago, chances are the
Steelers will keep the ball in Roethlisberger?s hands,
which will result in more offensive plays for both
sides due to clock stoppages. With a pair of highpowered
offenses and a Steelers defense that is
vulnerable right now, we?ll look for a higher scoring
game than is expected. Also know that whoever is
down in the fourth quarter will be pulling out all the
stops in an effort to come back, as there is no
looking toward next week come playoff time. We?ll
look for some points and go over.
NFL Wild Card Round
Saturday, January 5th, 2007
Redskins @ Seahawks
January 5th, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Line: Seahawks ?3? , 40
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Redskins are a great story, they went from an
underachieving team that blew games in the clutch
with no help from their befuddled geriatric coach to
the hottest team in the NFC while the ink dries on
the new Gibbs contract. It is unfortunate that it
took Sean Taylor?s death to make that happen. And
Talyor wasn?t the only adversity this team has faced.
The loss of Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas, the right
side of the offensive line, was huge. Shawn Springs
is playing with a heavy heart as his dad is in a coma.
Developing young quarterback Jason Campbell was
knocked out for the season. This team has suffered
just a ton of adversity.
Obviously Joe Gibbs has done a tremendous job
keeping this team together. The emergence of Todd
Collins is a big part of that story. To not start a
game for a decade but maintain the ability to come
in and play at a high level without making mistakes
is extraordinary. Clinton Portis is proving to be a lot
more solid down the stretch than he is in training
camp.
Seattle has really given the impression of a team
that can turn things on and off at will over the past
couple of years. And lately they?ve been turning
things on, especially at home where they?ve scored
24 points or more in five straight Qwest Field
outings. Seahawks, even though they rested their
starters in their loss in Atlanta, Sunday, have had a
vicious stretch of travel lately. In December they
had East Coast, home, East Coast, home, East
Coast. Simply taking that round trip three times can
wear you down. Hasselbeck (wrist injury Sunday
not serious) is playing extremely well and Shaun
Alexander is no longer MIA.
The Redskins are a very competitive team. Other
than their 52-7 annihilation at the hands of New
England, this is a team that never lost a game by
more than a TD. Obviously the line is shorter than
that here but the fact is this is a team that was
simply in every single ballgame. And coaching
decisions and clock management issues cost them a
couple of those close games. But this is a very
dangerous team. Seattle is a fine team but they?ll
have their hands full in this one. An outright upset
by red-hot Washington would be no surprise.
Redskins by 1.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jaguars @ Steelers
January 5th, 2007, 8:00PM EST
Line: Jaguars ?1? , 39?
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
After catching a field goal with Jacksonville a couple
of weeks ago, obviously there?s a significant
adjustment in the line based on the pounding that
the Jags dished out on this field on December 16th.
Jacksonville cruised to a 421-217 yardage advantage
and it took a late charge by the Steelers to make the
29-22 final look respectable.
Roethlisberger was sacked 47 times this year but
has been very accurate. The Steelers have
averaged 24 points per game, so their offense has
been no slouch. But the defense, though it has
good statistics over the full season, has really
struggled lately. Even if you ignore the matador
efforts by backups in the meaningless loss at
Baltimore Sunday, there is still cause for concern.
After shutting out Miami on a horrific field and
holding the Bengals to 10 points on a bad field, the
Steelers allowed 34, 29, and 24 points in their next
three games. The tackling and toughness on
defense has been severely lacking. But this is a
veteran team that has won a lot of postseason
games, and probably feel they have the ability to
turn it on as needed. And let?s remember that the
Colts were hardly and impressive defensive unit
entering the playoffs last year and they ?peaked to
their potential?. But the ability to do that is rare,
and we?ll consider the Steelers recent weak
showings to be more important than what they were
doing earlier in the season or a couple of years ago.
With David Garrard (18 touchdowns, 3 interceptions)
in the lineup, the Jaguars have been an offensive
force. Since his return to the lineup, the Jaguars
have scored 28, 24, 36, 25, 37, 29, and 49 points
before scoring 28 behind Quinn Gray in a ?starters
sit? situation in Houston. And Fred Taylor has the
running game revved ups as well. They take on a
Steelers team that has some skill position people
who have scored points in postseason scenarios in
the past. With Willie Parker, who was the leading
rusher in the league when he went down with an
injury a couple of weeks ago, chances are the
Steelers will keep the ball in Roethlisberger?s hands,
which will result in more offensive plays for both
sides due to clock stoppages. With a pair of highpowered
offenses and a Steelers defense that is
vulnerable right now, we?ll look for a higher scoring
game than is expected. Also know that whoever is
down in the fourth quarter will be pulling out all the
stops in an effort to come back, as there is no
looking toward next week come playoff time. We?ll
look for some points and go over.
THE WUNDERDOG - COMP
Game: Washington at Seattle (Saturday 1/05 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 40.5 -110
There is a lot of buzz surrounding the hot Redskins right now as they closed the season with four straight wins to earn the final Wildcard slot. Todd Collins has performed way above expectations but the Seattle defensive line is about as good as it gets. Pat Kerney and Julian Peterson are going to be in Collins' grill all game. Marcus Trufant is an excellent corner, and he should have no problem containing Santana Moss. The Skins will be forced to run the ball a lot with Clinton Portis, chewing up the clock. The Seahawks allow just 18.2 ppg, which is less than 2 points per game away from the NFL leading Colts. At home they allowed just 13.9 ppg! Washington brings in a great defense that gave up just 19.4 ppg this season and 14.8 ppg over their last six. These teams don't dominate with their offenses. The weather will be a factor for this one, as the forecast calls for rainy and windy conditions. That will hold the score down. Seattle has played three of their last four home playoff games UNDER. On the season, Washington is 5-3 UNDER on the road while Seattle is 5-3 UNDER at home. Under Joe Gibbs, the Redskins are 40-22 UNDER vs. conference opponents, 19-9 UNDER as a road underdog and 9-1 UNDER on the road to a total in the 38.5 to 42 range. We like the UNDER in this game.
Game: Washington at Seattle (Saturday 1/05 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 40.5 -110
There is a lot of buzz surrounding the hot Redskins right now as they closed the season with four straight wins to earn the final Wildcard slot. Todd Collins has performed way above expectations but the Seattle defensive line is about as good as it gets. Pat Kerney and Julian Peterson are going to be in Collins' grill all game. Marcus Trufant is an excellent corner, and he should have no problem containing Santana Moss. The Skins will be forced to run the ball a lot with Clinton Portis, chewing up the clock. The Seahawks allow just 18.2 ppg, which is less than 2 points per game away from the NFL leading Colts. At home they allowed just 13.9 ppg! Washington brings in a great defense that gave up just 19.4 ppg this season and 14.8 ppg over their last six. These teams don't dominate with their offenses. The weather will be a factor for this one, as the forecast calls for rainy and windy conditions. That will hold the score down. Seattle has played three of their last four home playoff games UNDER. On the season, Washington is 5-3 UNDER on the road while Seattle is 5-3 UNDER at home. Under Joe Gibbs, the Redskins are 40-22 UNDER vs. conference opponents, 19-9 UNDER as a road underdog and 9-1 UNDER on the road to a total in the 38.5 to 42 range. We like the UNDER in this game.
DR BOB
Saturday
SEATTLE (-3 ?) 23 Washington 21
Washington rallied for 4 victories to get into the playoffs and that momentum could continue today despite being on the road. The Redskins are a better team than Seattle even with attrition in their secondary without star S Sean Taylor and starting CB Carlos Rogers. Excluding last week?s meaningless game against Atlanta, the Seahawks out-scored their opponents by an average score of 23.5 to 16.5 but they played a schedule that was 4.4 points worse than average, which would make them 2.6 points better than average using this simply analysis. Seattle out-gained their opponents 5.3 yards per play to 4.9 yppl in those 15 games while facing teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl while allowing 5.4 yppl ? so the Seahawks were only 0.1 yppl better than an average team would have been against the same schedule. In Washington?s 15 games prior to last week (Dallas was not a full strength and played their backups freely in the second half) the Redskins were +0.2 points in scoring margin against a schedule that is 2.4 points better than average, which is also 2.6 points better than average. The Redskins out-gained those foes 5.1 yppl to 4.9 yppl, which is good considering an average team would be out-gained 5.5 yppl to 5.2 yppl by the same schedule of teams (so the Redskins are were 0.5 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage). That simple analysis shows that Washington has actually been a better team than Seattle from the line of scrimmage and equal to the Seahawks in a compensated point differential.
Washington isn?t as good defensively without the deceased Sean Taylor and CB Carlos Rogers, as the Redskins have been 0.3 yppl better than average defensively with their current defensive personnel (excluding the Dallas game) instead of their 0.5 yppl better than average rating for the season. Washington?s offense, however, has been better since veteran Todd Collins took over for an injured Jason Campbell 3 ? games ago. It?s not likely that Collins will continue to average 7.5 yards per pass play, but he is certainly better than average and will likely continue to be better than Campbell was (5.8 yppl excluding a fluke 54 yard Hail Mary pass completion that did not result in a touchdown against Miami in week 1). I rate Washington at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with Collins at quarterback (rather than 0.1 yppl worse than average for the season) and Collins has not thrown an interception in 10 years (128 passes).
Seattle?s offense can take advantage of Washington?s thin secondary with 4 receiver sets, but that would be tougher to do if Deion Branch is limited with the injured calf muscle that kept him out last week. Branch missed 5 ? games this season and Matt Hasselbeck?s passing stats when Branch was out of the lineup was considerably worse when Branch was out. Overall, Hasselbeck?s 6.3 yards per pass play average isn?t impressive given that he faced defensive units that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. The Seahawks? rushing attack is also worse than average and top back Shaun Alexander has averaged only 3.5 ypr the last two seasons. Seattle is simply an average team that happened to have played a very easy schedule and won a very bad division.
My math model favors Seattle by only ? a point at home the math would favor Washington by ? a point if Deion Branch doesn?t play. With Washington?s offense better with Collins at quarterback and their defense not as good with a thin defensive backfield there is now some value in the over in this game. I?ll lean with Washington plus the points and I?ll lean with the Over.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH 20 Jacksonville (-2 ?) 19
Pittsburgh was favored at home over Jacksonville by 3 ? points just 3 weeks ago and now the Jags are favored by 2 ? points. Now that?s line value. Jacksonville did play very well on both sides of the ball in beating the Steelers 29-22, but it?s not likely that a stingy Pittsburgh defense is going to give up 225 rushing yards at 5.6 ypr the second time around. That game was played a week after Pittsburgh?s emotionally charged game against New England while Jacksonville came into the game off an easy 37-6 win over Carolina. Pittsburgh will be more energized in this rematch than they were in week 15 and I?ll call for the Steelers to get the victory.
Jacksonville is known for being a good defensive team, but it was the offense that carried the Jags this season. The two headed rushing attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to 1980 yards at 5.1 ypr and quarterback David Garrard averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. The Jaguars rate at 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively with Garrard at quarterback and he threw just 3 interceptions on 324 pass attempts this season. However, Pittsburgh?s defense rates at 0.6 yppl better than average, allowing 4.6 yppl in their first 15 games (I excluded their week 17 game in which backups played a lot), against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Pittsburgh is better than average defending the run, so I don?t expect the Jaguars to run so easily this time around and the Steelers have the best pass defense in the NFL (5.0 yppp against quarterbacks that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team). Jacksonville has just a 0.1 yppl advantage when they have the ball.
Jacksonville?s defense actually wasn?t good this season as the Jags allowed 5.2 yppl (excluding their meaningless week 17 game) to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. The Steelers? offense, however, averaged 5.3 yppl in their first 15 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, so the Jaguars also have a 0.1 yppl advantage when Pittsburgh has the ball. Pittsburgh is down to their 3rd string left tackle with recent injuries to the top 2, but neither Marvel Smith or Max Starks was as a star and Jacksonville is without run-stuffing DT Marcus Stroud.
The Jaguars? advantage from the line of scrimmage is very slight, but the Garrard less likely to turn the ball over than Ben Roethlisberger is (although Big Ben threw just 11 picks this season). However, this game is being played in Pittsburgh and my math model favors the Steelers by ? a point. Home underdogs are 18-8 ATS in the post-season since 1976 and there is certainly line value favoring the Steelers, as the oddsmakers also thought this game was close to even (they opened it at pick). The public has overreacted to that week 15 win by Jacksonville over Pittsburgh and I?ll lean with Pittsburgh at +2 ? or less, I?d consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at +3 and I?d take the Steelers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ? or more.
Saturday
SEATTLE (-3 ?) 23 Washington 21
Washington rallied for 4 victories to get into the playoffs and that momentum could continue today despite being on the road. The Redskins are a better team than Seattle even with attrition in their secondary without star S Sean Taylor and starting CB Carlos Rogers. Excluding last week?s meaningless game against Atlanta, the Seahawks out-scored their opponents by an average score of 23.5 to 16.5 but they played a schedule that was 4.4 points worse than average, which would make them 2.6 points better than average using this simply analysis. Seattle out-gained their opponents 5.3 yards per play to 4.9 yppl in those 15 games while facing teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl while allowing 5.4 yppl ? so the Seahawks were only 0.1 yppl better than an average team would have been against the same schedule. In Washington?s 15 games prior to last week (Dallas was not a full strength and played their backups freely in the second half) the Redskins were +0.2 points in scoring margin against a schedule that is 2.4 points better than average, which is also 2.6 points better than average. The Redskins out-gained those foes 5.1 yppl to 4.9 yppl, which is good considering an average team would be out-gained 5.5 yppl to 5.2 yppl by the same schedule of teams (so the Redskins are were 0.5 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage). That simple analysis shows that Washington has actually been a better team than Seattle from the line of scrimmage and equal to the Seahawks in a compensated point differential.
Washington isn?t as good defensively without the deceased Sean Taylor and CB Carlos Rogers, as the Redskins have been 0.3 yppl better than average defensively with their current defensive personnel (excluding the Dallas game) instead of their 0.5 yppl better than average rating for the season. Washington?s offense, however, has been better since veteran Todd Collins took over for an injured Jason Campbell 3 ? games ago. It?s not likely that Collins will continue to average 7.5 yards per pass play, but he is certainly better than average and will likely continue to be better than Campbell was (5.8 yppl excluding a fluke 54 yard Hail Mary pass completion that did not result in a touchdown against Miami in week 1). I rate Washington at 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with Collins at quarterback (rather than 0.1 yppl worse than average for the season) and Collins has not thrown an interception in 10 years (128 passes).
Seattle?s offense can take advantage of Washington?s thin secondary with 4 receiver sets, but that would be tougher to do if Deion Branch is limited with the injured calf muscle that kept him out last week. Branch missed 5 ? games this season and Matt Hasselbeck?s passing stats when Branch was out of the lineup was considerably worse when Branch was out. Overall, Hasselbeck?s 6.3 yards per pass play average isn?t impressive given that he faced defensive units that would combine to allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback. The Seahawks? rushing attack is also worse than average and top back Shaun Alexander has averaged only 3.5 ypr the last two seasons. Seattle is simply an average team that happened to have played a very easy schedule and won a very bad division.
My math model favors Seattle by only ? a point at home the math would favor Washington by ? a point if Deion Branch doesn?t play. With Washington?s offense better with Collins at quarterback and their defense not as good with a thin defensive backfield there is now some value in the over in this game. I?ll lean with Washington plus the points and I?ll lean with the Over.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH 20 Jacksonville (-2 ?) 19
Pittsburgh was favored at home over Jacksonville by 3 ? points just 3 weeks ago and now the Jags are favored by 2 ? points. Now that?s line value. Jacksonville did play very well on both sides of the ball in beating the Steelers 29-22, but it?s not likely that a stingy Pittsburgh defense is going to give up 225 rushing yards at 5.6 ypr the second time around. That game was played a week after Pittsburgh?s emotionally charged game against New England while Jacksonville came into the game off an easy 37-6 win over Carolina. Pittsburgh will be more energized in this rematch than they were in week 15 and I?ll call for the Steelers to get the victory.
Jacksonville is known for being a good defensive team, but it was the offense that carried the Jags this season. The two headed rushing attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew combined to 1980 yards at 5.1 ypr and quarterback David Garrard averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback. The Jaguars rate at 0.7 yards per play better than average offensively with Garrard at quarterback and he threw just 3 interceptions on 324 pass attempts this season. However, Pittsburgh?s defense rates at 0.6 yppl better than average, allowing 4.6 yppl in their first 15 games (I excluded their week 17 game in which backups played a lot), against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Pittsburgh is better than average defending the run, so I don?t expect the Jaguars to run so easily this time around and the Steelers have the best pass defense in the NFL (5.0 yppp against quarterbacks that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team). Jacksonville has just a 0.1 yppl advantage when they have the ball.
Jacksonville?s defense actually wasn?t good this season as the Jags allowed 5.2 yppl (excluding their meaningless week 17 game) to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. The Steelers? offense, however, averaged 5.3 yppl in their first 15 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, so the Jaguars also have a 0.1 yppl advantage when Pittsburgh has the ball. Pittsburgh is down to their 3rd string left tackle with recent injuries to the top 2, but neither Marvel Smith or Max Starks was as a star and Jacksonville is without run-stuffing DT Marcus Stroud.
The Jaguars? advantage from the line of scrimmage is very slight, but the Garrard less likely to turn the ball over than Ben Roethlisberger is (although Big Ben threw just 11 picks this season). However, this game is being played in Pittsburgh and my math model favors the Steelers by ? a point. Home underdogs are 18-8 ATS in the post-season since 1976 and there is certainly line value favoring the Steelers, as the oddsmakers also thought this game was close to even (they opened it at pick). The public has overreacted to that week 15 win by Jacksonville over Pittsburgh and I?ll lean with Pittsburgh at +2 ? or less, I?d consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at +3 and I?d take the Steelers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ? or more.
STEVE BUDIN- CEO
SATURDAY'S PICK
100 DIME MAX WAGER
*******JACKSONVILLE*******
A note from Steve Budin:
Guys, since we're up 880 dimes with these releases I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point. This line is floating between 2 1/2 and 3 depending on where you shop. So if you've got Jacksonville at -3 I want you to buy the Jaguars down to -2 1/2 so you still win if they prevail by a field goal. And if you get stuck with Jacksonville at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a field goal. Naturally, do not buy down from 2 1/2; there is no need to.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmakers' perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our profit of 880 dimes in the NFL - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
SATURDAY'S PICK
100 DIME MAX WAGER
*******JACKSONVILLE*******
A note from Steve Budin:
Guys, since we're up 880 dimes with these releases I want you to spend a little extra coin and buy down the 1/2 point. This line is floating between 2 1/2 and 3 depending on where you shop. So if you've got Jacksonville at -3 I want you to buy the Jaguars down to -2 1/2 so you still win if they prevail by a field goal. And if you get stuck with Jacksonville at -3 1/2, buy down to -3 so you get a push with a field goal. Naturally, do not buy down from 2 1/2; there is no need to.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmakers' perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our profit of 880 dimes in the NFL - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
JOHN CAMPBELL FROM COVERS
International Bowl
Ball State vs. Rutgers (-10, 59 ?)
Oh dear. We had so much momentum going here with all these great bowl games, didn?t we? Then all of a sudden we get smacked with the International Bowl. Just like Ball Boy State is going to get smacked by Rutgers.
Pick: Rutgers -10
International Bowl
Ball State vs. Rutgers (-10, 59 ?)
Oh dear. We had so much momentum going here with all these great bowl games, didn?t we? Then all of a sudden we get smacked with the International Bowl. Just like Ball Boy State is going to get smacked by Rutgers.
Pick: Rutgers -10
VEGAS HOTSHEET
Saturday, January 5th
INTERNATIONAL BOWL - 12:05pm ET ESPN2
483 Ball St 20
484 Rutgers 49
RUTGERS -10
FREE PICK: OVER 60?
Saturday, January 5th
INTERNATIONAL BOWL - 12:05pm ET ESPN2
483 Ball St 20
484 Rutgers 49
RUTGERS -10
FREE PICK: OVER 60?
DR BOB
Rutgers (-10) vs Ball State: Math favors Rutgers pretty significantly, but situations are strongly in favor of Ball State. At this point I?ll pick Rutgers by 10 and thus have no opinion.
Rutgers (-10) vs Ball State: Math favors Rutgers pretty significantly, but situations are strongly in favor of Ball State. At this point I?ll pick Rutgers by 10 and thus have no opinion.
EROCKMONEY
1/5 - International - Rutgers v. Ball St.
How inspired is Rutgers after a terrible season? How good is Ball St?
Pick: Rutgers by 12
Status: No Play
1/5 - International - Rutgers v. Ball St.
How inspired is Rutgers after a terrible season? How good is Ball St?
Pick: Rutgers by 12
Status: No Play
AAA
NCAAF: Ball State Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Over 59.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 1/5/2008
Note: This line has already started to rise since release and will probably continue to do so. This is best described as an Oddsmaker Blunder and a lot of reasons to like the OVER here. If you have never seen Ball State play then you are in for a treat. They have one of the best throwing QB's in the country and he not can throw, he knows when not to. His 27 TD's and just 6 Int's are about as good as it gets and a primary reason why the Cardinals have scored 32 points per contest. That does include 40 verses Nebraska so they can play with the big boys. Rutgers is a Big Boy and they too should have a field day against the Cardinal D that is just as bad as their offense is good. While the Scarlet Knights have a better than average D, the intensity level in this game is apt not to be that great as this game will be a break from the New Year's games and the big one coming up with Ohio State/LSU. Rutgers season has not been what they expected and they are coming to town to have some fun. They will, and will probably put a big hurt on the Cardinals as well. That will leave Ball State trailing much of the game, if not all of the same, and being in catchup mode is going to give us lot's of passing, a long clock and a few turnovers along the way leading to short fields. The Pass D of Ball State is atrocious, allowing over 220 yards per game and Rutgers recievers are just simply quicker and stronger than anything Ball State can throw at them. If I had to guess I would say that holding the Knights below 40 points is not likely to happen. The Cardinals have shown the ability to strike quick and they too will showcase a good recieving corp. That should allow them to make a few plays to give us what we need. This could easily be the highest scoring game of all the Bowl games and this line is a bargain.
NCAAF: Ball State Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Over 59.5 -110 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 1/5/2008
Note: This line has already started to rise since release and will probably continue to do so. This is best described as an Oddsmaker Blunder and a lot of reasons to like the OVER here. If you have never seen Ball State play then you are in for a treat. They have one of the best throwing QB's in the country and he not can throw, he knows when not to. His 27 TD's and just 6 Int's are about as good as it gets and a primary reason why the Cardinals have scored 32 points per contest. That does include 40 verses Nebraska so they can play with the big boys. Rutgers is a Big Boy and they too should have a field day against the Cardinal D that is just as bad as their offense is good. While the Scarlet Knights have a better than average D, the intensity level in this game is apt not to be that great as this game will be a break from the New Year's games and the big one coming up with Ohio State/LSU. Rutgers season has not been what they expected and they are coming to town to have some fun. They will, and will probably put a big hurt on the Cardinals as well. That will leave Ball State trailing much of the game, if not all of the same, and being in catchup mode is going to give us lot's of passing, a long clock and a few turnovers along the way leading to short fields. The Pass D of Ball State is atrocious, allowing over 220 yards per game and Rutgers recievers are just simply quicker and stronger than anything Ball State can throw at them. If I had to guess I would say that holding the Knights below 40 points is not likely to happen. The Cardinals have shown the ability to strike quick and they too will showcase a good recieving corp. That should allow them to make a few plays to give us what we need. This could easily be the highest scoring game of all the Bowl games and this line is a bargain.
SPORTS MEMO PLAY
Rutgers vs. Ball State +10 O/U 60 Recommendation: Ball State
Rutgers had dreams of a BCS berth and potentially a shot at the National
Championship this year after an 11-win season and a bowl win
over Kansas State on ?06. After all, the Knights brought back preseason
Heisman hopeful Ray Rice, who ran for nearly 1,800 yards
with 20 TDs. Quarterback Mike Teel, who had worked all offseason
to improve his mechanics and grasp of the offense, developed a solid
chemistry with a talented group of wide receivers like the explosive
Kenny Brit and Tiquan Underwood. They also boasted six returning
starters to a nasty defense that allowed just 14 points per game in
2006 while holding opponents to just 2.9 yards per carry. But after
a 3-0 start against JV-like opponents, Rutgers got a rude awakening,
losing after their bye week as a 17.5-point favorite at home to
Maryland. Though they rank 26th overall in total offense and 15th
overall in total defense, our Accu-Stats numbers paint the picture
of a decidedly average football team. They run for 4.80 yards per
carry but give up a disturbing 5.32 and rarely dominated the line
of scrimmage they seemed to own last year. This lack of a physical
prowess perhaps led them to their 1-4 SU and ATS record against
the Big East?s top five teams (UConn, South Florida, West Virginia,
Louisville and Cincinnati). Head coach Greg Schiano must be commended
for taking this perennial loser to three straight bowl games,
but with the talent and expectations in Piscataway, we can?t help
but feel this team is extremely disappointed to be here. Ball State,
however, is thrilled to be here in Toronto. They are making their first
appearance in the postseason in over a decade after securing their
first winning season in just as long. Quarterback Nate Davis is a
bit undersized at 6-2, 214 lbs., but he has NFL qualities. His arm
strength is phenomenal and his knack for making big plays in big
situations has caught the eyes of some scouts. The sophomore signal
caller has now thrown for 5,351 yards with 45 TDs against only
14 INTs in his career, despite becoming a full-time starter midway
through his freshman campaign. While the defense is clearly behind
the offense for the boys in Muncie, the one ringing endorsement
for the Cards has been the ability of Brady Hoke to ?coach ?em up?
against superior competition. In the past two seasons, Ball State has
faced Indiana (twice), Purdue, Nebraska, and Illinois -- all much bigger,
stronger and faster schools from BCS conferences. They have
covered four of those five games, nearly pulling the outright upset
against Indiana two seasons ago and at Nebraska this year. Rutgers
will no doubt hold the physical advantages, and on paper they
will hold virtually every statistical/fundamental edge as well. But as
mentioned before, Greg Schiano deserves a lot of credit for building
this program up to its current level and he is getting it...from Michigan.
While he vehemently denies it becoming one, it can?t help but
be a distraction for a team that has publicly stated it has not had
the type of season they had hoped for. We?ll take the scrappy Ball
State Cardinals to cover against yet another BCS conference school
Rutgers vs. Ball State +10 O/U 60 Recommendation: Ball State
Rutgers had dreams of a BCS berth and potentially a shot at the National
Championship this year after an 11-win season and a bowl win
over Kansas State on ?06. After all, the Knights brought back preseason
Heisman hopeful Ray Rice, who ran for nearly 1,800 yards
with 20 TDs. Quarterback Mike Teel, who had worked all offseason
to improve his mechanics and grasp of the offense, developed a solid
chemistry with a talented group of wide receivers like the explosive
Kenny Brit and Tiquan Underwood. They also boasted six returning
starters to a nasty defense that allowed just 14 points per game in
2006 while holding opponents to just 2.9 yards per carry. But after
a 3-0 start against JV-like opponents, Rutgers got a rude awakening,
losing after their bye week as a 17.5-point favorite at home to
Maryland. Though they rank 26th overall in total offense and 15th
overall in total defense, our Accu-Stats numbers paint the picture
of a decidedly average football team. They run for 4.80 yards per
carry but give up a disturbing 5.32 and rarely dominated the line
of scrimmage they seemed to own last year. This lack of a physical
prowess perhaps led them to their 1-4 SU and ATS record against
the Big East?s top five teams (UConn, South Florida, West Virginia,
Louisville and Cincinnati). Head coach Greg Schiano must be commended
for taking this perennial loser to three straight bowl games,
but with the talent and expectations in Piscataway, we can?t help
but feel this team is extremely disappointed to be here. Ball State,
however, is thrilled to be here in Toronto. They are making their first
appearance in the postseason in over a decade after securing their
first winning season in just as long. Quarterback Nate Davis is a
bit undersized at 6-2, 214 lbs., but he has NFL qualities. His arm
strength is phenomenal and his knack for making big plays in big
situations has caught the eyes of some scouts. The sophomore signal
caller has now thrown for 5,351 yards with 45 TDs against only
14 INTs in his career, despite becoming a full-time starter midway
through his freshman campaign. While the defense is clearly behind
the offense for the boys in Muncie, the one ringing endorsement
for the Cards has been the ability of Brady Hoke to ?coach ?em up?
against superior competition. In the past two seasons, Ball State has
faced Indiana (twice), Purdue, Nebraska, and Illinois -- all much bigger,
stronger and faster schools from BCS conferences. They have
covered four of those five games, nearly pulling the outright upset
against Indiana two seasons ago and at Nebraska this year. Rutgers
will no doubt hold the physical advantages, and on paper they
will hold virtually every statistical/fundamental edge as well. But as
mentioned before, Greg Schiano deserves a lot of credit for building
this program up to its current level and he is getting it...from Michigan.
While he vehemently denies it becoming one, it can?t help but
be a distraction for a team that has publicly stated it has not had
the type of season they had hoped for. We?ll take the scrappy Ball
State Cardinals to cover against yet another BCS conference school
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