SERVICE PLAYS FOR SAT. 1/5
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
WINNING POINTS
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
(January 5 at Toronto)
RUTGERS over BALL STATE by 7
The only thing more stunning to us than Greg Schiano turning down the
Michigan job was the Michigan apparently offered it to him in the first place. If an
appearance in this class of bowl game is the best that he can do with the Rutgers
program after seven seasons, and with this bid largely coming because of a nonconference
schedule that included home games vs. Buffalo and Norfolk State and
a short bus ride to Army (think about it; they were under .500 in all other games),
what was the attraction. Yes, before he arrived the program had not been in a bowl
since 1978, but there were not 34 bowls games then. There are some talented skill
players in QB Mike Teel, RB Ray Rice and an occasionally explosive groups of
WR?s (when they are hanging on to the ball, that is), but not the overall depth to
be installed as this kind of favorite. Ball State brings its own share of holes, particularly
on defense, but note that the Cardinals played a much tougher non-conference
slate than their counterparts in this one ? trips to Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska
(back in September when the Cornhuskers were still trying) and Navy. In QB Nate
David, WR Dante Love and TE Darius Hill they have NFL-bound playmakers
leading the aerial game, and at the MAC level that was enough most weeks. The
concern is the ability to give Davis enough time to throw vs. a quick and active
defensive front, which is what keeps us from calling this closer. RUTGERS 37-30.
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
(January 5 at Toronto)
RUTGERS over BALL STATE by 7
The only thing more stunning to us than Greg Schiano turning down the
Michigan job was the Michigan apparently offered it to him in the first place. If an
appearance in this class of bowl game is the best that he can do with the Rutgers
program after seven seasons, and with this bid largely coming because of a nonconference
schedule that included home games vs. Buffalo and Norfolk State and
a short bus ride to Army (think about it; they were under .500 in all other games),
what was the attraction. Yes, before he arrived the program had not been in a bowl
since 1978, but there were not 34 bowls games then. There are some talented skill
players in QB Mike Teel, RB Ray Rice and an occasionally explosive groups of
WR?s (when they are hanging on to the ball, that is), but not the overall depth to
be installed as this kind of favorite. Ball State brings its own share of holes, particularly
on defense, but note that the Cardinals played a much tougher non-conference
slate than their counterparts in this one ? trips to Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska
(back in September when the Cornhuskers were still trying) and Navy. In QB Nate
David, WR Dante Love and TE Darius Hill they have NFL-bound playmakers
leading the aerial game, and at the MAC level that was enough most weeks. The
concern is the ability to give Davis enough time to throw vs. a quick and active
defensive front, which is what keeps us from calling this closer. RUTGERS 37-30.
POINTWISE
RUTGERS (7-5) vs BALL STATE (7-5)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
12:00 NOON EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rutgers ...... 41.6 .. 31-22 .. 20-15 .. 190-159 .. 247-161.. - 1 . Rutgers
Ball State .... 35.0 .. 31-28 .. 17-18 .. 134-175 .. 260-206.. +15 . by 8.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 2nd straight year, our "Neighbors to the North" are part of the holiday
rotation. Not exactly what the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers had in mind in their
quest for a January bowl slot, after making it to the Insight Bowl & Texas Bowl
the past 2 years. Under coach Greg Schiano, the Knights have come from
doormat status, to legitimate competitors. A year ago, Rutgers finished as the
12th-rated team in the nation, following its 37-10 holiday season romper over
Kansas St, which raised the Knights' record to 11-2. Returning 13 starters,
including RB Rice, who finished the '06 season as 3rd best in the nation (1,794
yds & 20 TDs, overland), the Knights quickly made it to the #10 spot in the
nation, before being routed by then 2-2 Maryland, 34-24 (28-pt ATS loss), with
a 239-82 RY deficit, along with a 36:57-23:03. And that one was at home. It
has been pretty much down hill ever since, with the only bright spot a 30-27
controversial home win over then 2nd-ranked So Florida. As a matter of fact,
Rutgers was minus 64 pts ATS in 7 of its last 8 games (Army). Thus, do they
have the incentive to put forth a maximum effort vs the likes of the Cardinals of
Ball State, who are making it to a bowl for just the 6th time in their history, & 1st
which carries an interest in the gaming world? The '93 & '96 Las Vegas Bowls
hardly qualify. Led by QB Davis (3,376 yds, 27 TDs), the Cards pretty much
live via the pass & the turnover. They've had their moments, but they have
been bombed for 521 RYs (Navy), 298 RYs (Cent Mich), & 324 RYs (Illinois).
And that spells trouble vs the Knights, who've averaged 38.5 ppg in their two
bowls under Schiano. Hate going with a DD bowl chalk, but this a Knight call.
PROPHECY: RUTGERS 41 - Ball State 24 RATING: 6
RUTGERS (7-5) vs BALL STATE (7-5)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
12:00 NOON EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rutgers ...... 41.6 .. 31-22 .. 20-15 .. 190-159 .. 247-161.. - 1 . Rutgers
Ball State .... 35.0 .. 31-28 .. 17-18 .. 134-175 .. 260-206.. +15 . by 8.6 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 2nd straight year, our "Neighbors to the North" are part of the holiday
rotation. Not exactly what the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers had in mind in their
quest for a January bowl slot, after making it to the Insight Bowl & Texas Bowl
the past 2 years. Under coach Greg Schiano, the Knights have come from
doormat status, to legitimate competitors. A year ago, Rutgers finished as the
12th-rated team in the nation, following its 37-10 holiday season romper over
Kansas St, which raised the Knights' record to 11-2. Returning 13 starters,
including RB Rice, who finished the '06 season as 3rd best in the nation (1,794
yds & 20 TDs, overland), the Knights quickly made it to the #10 spot in the
nation, before being routed by then 2-2 Maryland, 34-24 (28-pt ATS loss), with
a 239-82 RY deficit, along with a 36:57-23:03. And that one was at home. It
has been pretty much down hill ever since, with the only bright spot a 30-27
controversial home win over then 2nd-ranked So Florida. As a matter of fact,
Rutgers was minus 64 pts ATS in 7 of its last 8 games (Army). Thus, do they
have the incentive to put forth a maximum effort vs the likes of the Cardinals of
Ball State, who are making it to a bowl for just the 6th time in their history, & 1st
which carries an interest in the gaming world? The '93 & '96 Las Vegas Bowls
hardly qualify. Led by QB Davis (3,376 yds, 27 TDs), the Cards pretty much
live via the pass & the turnover. They've had their moments, but they have
been bombed for 521 RYs (Navy), 298 RYs (Cent Mich), & 324 RYs (Illinois).
And that spells trouble vs the Knights, who've averaged 38.5 ppg in their two
bowls under Schiano. Hate going with a DD bowl chalk, but this a Knight call.
PROPHECY: RUTGERS 41 - Ball State 24 RATING: 6
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
These 2 teams have met just once before, a 31-31 tie in 1989. Rutgers is 9-2-1 SU but 5-6 ATS vs current
MAC teams. RU was 2-0 as a DD AF TY while BSU was 3-1 as an AD. Ball St is 3-5-1 SU vs current BE teams
but 6-1 ATS vs non-conf foes the L/2Y. BSU tallied 7 wins for the 1st time S/?96 when they played in their last
bowl (18-15 loss, +6? in LV Bowl). HC Hoke is one of 18 HC to coach at his alma-mater, prior to that he was
an asst at Mich. The Knights are in their 3rd straight bowl & 4th in school history. They beat Kan St 37-10 in
the ?06 Texas Bowl. Prior to RU, Schiano had been an asst in 7 bowls most recently at Miami, Fl. RU played
7 bowl caliber teams (2-5 ATS) being outscored by an avg of 32-25 but outgaining them by 420-398 ypg.
BSU played 4 bowl caliber teams (2-2 ATS) being outscored by an avg of 39-27 and outgained by 521-414.
They had 2 common opponents, Buf & Navy (both 2-0 SU & ATS). RU outscored those two on avg 39-14
and outgained them by a 520-262 ypg margin. BSU outscored them by an avg of 42-23 and outgained them
by 523-402 ypg but needed OT to beat Navy. RU had 12,500 fans LY in the trip to Texas and both schools
are less than 500 miles from Toronto. The Cardinals only avg?d 13,085 fans for their 5 home games.
After a Cinderella 10-2 ssn LY Rutgers finished with a very disappointing 7-5 record. They defeated
#2 USF, but dropped 3 of 5 incl the 41-38 UL loss where they led by 18 in the 2H. The Knights have
our #38 off ranking avg 31 ppg & 437 ypg. QB Teel suffered a thumb inj vs Norfolk St that affected his
throws in 8 gms until the UL game. When he?s healthy this is a very balanced offense. RU is doing
opposing defenses a favor if they don?t give AA RB Rice the ball as he?s the #3 rusher in NCAA. WR?s
Britt & Underwood became just the 26th duo in the NCAA to crack 1,000 yds in the same ssn. The OL
avg 6?5? 308, paving the way for 190 ypg (4.6) allowing just 10 sks (2.8%) which is 2nd fewest in NCAA.
They are led by 3 seniors including OT Zuttah. Rutgers defense allowed 65 ypg more than LY & went
from +11 to -6 in TO margin. They have our #43 ranking all?g 22 ppg, 317 ypg with 35 sks. The smallish
DL avg?s 6?3? 259 all?g 156 rush yds (3.9) led by Sr DT Foster. The secondary has our #33 pass D eff
all?g 161 ypg (51%) with an 11-9 ratio (#2 pass D in NCAA). RU has our #102 ST?s ranking led by K/P
Jeremy ?Judge? Ito who holds the school record for career points scored.
The Cardinals exceeded expectations, winning a share of the MAC West crown with their only MAC
losses to the two Div Champs. They got some national attention when they came up just short of upsetting
a ranked Nebraska team after missing a game winning FG in the final seconds (41-40, +23). This will be
Ball St?s first game in a dome since 1996 (Minny) but they did hold 5 practices in the RCA Dome (Colts), to
get used to playing indoors. They are led by just 3 senior starters (all def) and 15 upperclassmen starters.
Ball St has our #67 offense avg 32 ppg and 432 ypg. They do have our #22 passing offense led by QB
Davis who had five 300+ gms including a career high 422 vs Nebraska and is also the team?s #5 rusher.
Their rushing game took a hit when they lost RB Lewis after just 4 starts as he had two 100+ games and
still finished as the team?s #2 rusher. WR Love is the team?s top receiver and is #7 in the NCAA in all-purp
yds avg 197 ypg. The #2 receiver is Mackey Award semi-finalist TE Hill who is tied with Love in rec TD.
The OL avg 6?4? 290 and has opened holes for 4.1 ypc and all?d just 20 sacks (4.6%). The Cardinals have
our #81 def all?g 26 ppg & 419 ypg. The DL avg just 6?2? 252 and is ranked #99 in NCAA all?g 197 ypg
rush (4.9) with 21 sacks. They are led by DE?s Booker and Crawford, who combined for 29 tfl. The top two
tacklers are LB?s including WLB Haines who was the #6 tackler in the MAC. Ball St has our #89 pass eff
defense all?g 222 ypg (64%) with an 18-18 ratio as the secondary starters combined for 14 int led by CB
Hill. Ball St has our #52 ST?s ranking led by P Miller who finished #3 in the NCAA with a 45.8 avg.
Ball State is thrilled to be making their first bowl appearance since 1996. They got some press early
in the season after the Nebraska game but as we found out everyone scored on the Cornhuskers. They
did finish getting outgained vs bowl eligible teams by 107 ypg. Rutgers finished their season losing 3 of
5 (1-4 ATS) and QB Teel was inconsistent with a thumb injury. Rutgers? goal was clearly to make a BCS
bowl and for the 2nd straight season they end up in a bottom tier post season game. The talent disparity
is overwhelming on the defensive side and with a healthy QB the offense is potnet behind AA RB Rice.
HC Schiano got his disappointed team focused in LY?s Texas Bowl (37-10 vs Kan St) and will motivate
them again to finish the season off with a win.
FORECAST: RUTGERS 38 Ball St 21 RATING: 2★
These 2 teams have met just once before, a 31-31 tie in 1989. Rutgers is 9-2-1 SU but 5-6 ATS vs current
MAC teams. RU was 2-0 as a DD AF TY while BSU was 3-1 as an AD. Ball St is 3-5-1 SU vs current BE teams
but 6-1 ATS vs non-conf foes the L/2Y. BSU tallied 7 wins for the 1st time S/?96 when they played in their last
bowl (18-15 loss, +6? in LV Bowl). HC Hoke is one of 18 HC to coach at his alma-mater, prior to that he was
an asst at Mich. The Knights are in their 3rd straight bowl & 4th in school history. They beat Kan St 37-10 in
the ?06 Texas Bowl. Prior to RU, Schiano had been an asst in 7 bowls most recently at Miami, Fl. RU played
7 bowl caliber teams (2-5 ATS) being outscored by an avg of 32-25 but outgaining them by 420-398 ypg.
BSU played 4 bowl caliber teams (2-2 ATS) being outscored by an avg of 39-27 and outgained by 521-414.
They had 2 common opponents, Buf & Navy (both 2-0 SU & ATS). RU outscored those two on avg 39-14
and outgained them by a 520-262 ypg margin. BSU outscored them by an avg of 42-23 and outgained them
by 523-402 ypg but needed OT to beat Navy. RU had 12,500 fans LY in the trip to Texas and both schools
are less than 500 miles from Toronto. The Cardinals only avg?d 13,085 fans for their 5 home games.
After a Cinderella 10-2 ssn LY Rutgers finished with a very disappointing 7-5 record. They defeated
#2 USF, but dropped 3 of 5 incl the 41-38 UL loss where they led by 18 in the 2H. The Knights have
our #38 off ranking avg 31 ppg & 437 ypg. QB Teel suffered a thumb inj vs Norfolk St that affected his
throws in 8 gms until the UL game. When he?s healthy this is a very balanced offense. RU is doing
opposing defenses a favor if they don?t give AA RB Rice the ball as he?s the #3 rusher in NCAA. WR?s
Britt & Underwood became just the 26th duo in the NCAA to crack 1,000 yds in the same ssn. The OL
avg 6?5? 308, paving the way for 190 ypg (4.6) allowing just 10 sks (2.8%) which is 2nd fewest in NCAA.
They are led by 3 seniors including OT Zuttah. Rutgers defense allowed 65 ypg more than LY & went
from +11 to -6 in TO margin. They have our #43 ranking all?g 22 ppg, 317 ypg with 35 sks. The smallish
DL avg?s 6?3? 259 all?g 156 rush yds (3.9) led by Sr DT Foster. The secondary has our #33 pass D eff
all?g 161 ypg (51%) with an 11-9 ratio (#2 pass D in NCAA). RU has our #102 ST?s ranking led by K/P
Jeremy ?Judge? Ito who holds the school record for career points scored.
The Cardinals exceeded expectations, winning a share of the MAC West crown with their only MAC
losses to the two Div Champs. They got some national attention when they came up just short of upsetting
a ranked Nebraska team after missing a game winning FG in the final seconds (41-40, +23). This will be
Ball St?s first game in a dome since 1996 (Minny) but they did hold 5 practices in the RCA Dome (Colts), to
get used to playing indoors. They are led by just 3 senior starters (all def) and 15 upperclassmen starters.
Ball St has our #67 offense avg 32 ppg and 432 ypg. They do have our #22 passing offense led by QB
Davis who had five 300+ gms including a career high 422 vs Nebraska and is also the team?s #5 rusher.
Their rushing game took a hit when they lost RB Lewis after just 4 starts as he had two 100+ games and
still finished as the team?s #2 rusher. WR Love is the team?s top receiver and is #7 in the NCAA in all-purp
yds avg 197 ypg. The #2 receiver is Mackey Award semi-finalist TE Hill who is tied with Love in rec TD.
The OL avg 6?4? 290 and has opened holes for 4.1 ypc and all?d just 20 sacks (4.6%). The Cardinals have
our #81 def all?g 26 ppg & 419 ypg. The DL avg just 6?2? 252 and is ranked #99 in NCAA all?g 197 ypg
rush (4.9) with 21 sacks. They are led by DE?s Booker and Crawford, who combined for 29 tfl. The top two
tacklers are LB?s including WLB Haines who was the #6 tackler in the MAC. Ball St has our #89 pass eff
defense all?g 222 ypg (64%) with an 18-18 ratio as the secondary starters combined for 14 int led by CB
Hill. Ball St has our #52 ST?s ranking led by P Miller who finished #3 in the NCAA with a 45.8 avg.
Ball State is thrilled to be making their first bowl appearance since 1996. They got some press early
in the season after the Nebraska game but as we found out everyone scored on the Cornhuskers. They
did finish getting outgained vs bowl eligible teams by 107 ypg. Rutgers finished their season losing 3 of
5 (1-4 ATS) and QB Teel was inconsistent with a thumb injury. Rutgers? goal was clearly to make a BCS
bowl and for the 2nd straight season they end up in a bottom tier post season game. The talent disparity
is overwhelming on the defensive side and with a healthy QB the offense is potnet behind AA RB Rice.
HC Schiano got his disappointed team focused in LY?s Texas Bowl (37-10 vs Kan St) and will motivate
them again to finish the season off with a win.
FORECAST: RUTGERS 38 Ball St 21 RATING: 2★
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THE GOLD SHEET
Rutgers 38 - Ball State 34
?In the big bucks world of major college football,
success seems to quickly breed more success. And much greater expectations.
So, it?s really not hard to understand how long-suffering Rutgers?which
only two years ago broke a postseason drought that had spanned nearly three
decades?could be disappointed by any bowl bid. Indeed, the Scarlet Knights
seemed to have realistic Big East title hopes entering 2007 after their revelatory
11-2 campaign the previous season. They fell well short of that lofty goal, in
part due to QB Mike Teel?s lingering thumb injury, but more so because this year?s
defense was substantially more pliable than the stingy 2006 stop unit.
Improving Ball State is back in the postseason for the first time in more than
a decade. During his 5 seasons at the Cardinals? helm, highly-regarded head
coach Brady Hoke (former Michigan assistant) has used his strong Midwest
recruiting ties to steadily bolster the BSU roster, bagging such gems as
strong-armed soph QB Nate Davis, who spurned interest from higher-profile
Big Ten & Big East programs to go to Muncie. The confident Davis (27 TDP,
only 6 ints.) triggers a potent Cardinal attack (32 ppg, 432 ypg) that features
frequent down-field throws to mercurial All-MAC WR/return man Dante Love
(87 catches, conf.-leading 197 all-purpose ypg TY) and tough-to-cover hybrid
TE/WR Darius Hill (6-6, 233; 19 TDC last 2 seasons).
Make no mistake, with Teel?s thumb feeling better and rock-steady jr. RB Ray
Rice (20 TDs & more than 1700 YR in each of last 2 seasons!) doing his usual
damage on the ground, Rutgers isn?t likely to have much trouble finding its way
to the end zone against the weak Ball State defense (permitting 419 ypg). The
main question appears to be how long Davis & Co. will be able to keep pace.
There?s plenty of reason to believe that the scrappy Cardinals (covered 6 of
last 7 as dog) and their burgeoning offense can trade points most of the way,
so we also recommend ?over? the total indoors at Toronto?s Rogers Centre
Rutgers 38 - Ball State 34
?In the big bucks world of major college football,
success seems to quickly breed more success. And much greater expectations.
So, it?s really not hard to understand how long-suffering Rutgers?which
only two years ago broke a postseason drought that had spanned nearly three
decades?could be disappointed by any bowl bid. Indeed, the Scarlet Knights
seemed to have realistic Big East title hopes entering 2007 after their revelatory
11-2 campaign the previous season. They fell well short of that lofty goal, in
part due to QB Mike Teel?s lingering thumb injury, but more so because this year?s
defense was substantially more pliable than the stingy 2006 stop unit.
Improving Ball State is back in the postseason for the first time in more than
a decade. During his 5 seasons at the Cardinals? helm, highly-regarded head
coach Brady Hoke (former Michigan assistant) has used his strong Midwest
recruiting ties to steadily bolster the BSU roster, bagging such gems as
strong-armed soph QB Nate Davis, who spurned interest from higher-profile
Big Ten & Big East programs to go to Muncie. The confident Davis (27 TDP,
only 6 ints.) triggers a potent Cardinal attack (32 ppg, 432 ypg) that features
frequent down-field throws to mercurial All-MAC WR/return man Dante Love
(87 catches, conf.-leading 197 all-purpose ypg TY) and tough-to-cover hybrid
TE/WR Darius Hill (6-6, 233; 19 TDC last 2 seasons).
Make no mistake, with Teel?s thumb feeling better and rock-steady jr. RB Ray
Rice (20 TDs & more than 1700 YR in each of last 2 seasons!) doing his usual
damage on the ground, Rutgers isn?t likely to have much trouble finding its way
to the end zone against the weak Ball State defense (permitting 419 ypg). The
main question appears to be how long Davis & Co. will be able to keep pace.
There?s plenty of reason to believe that the scrappy Cardinals (covered 6 of
last 7 as dog) and their burgeoning offense can trade points most of the way,
so we also recommend ?over? the total indoors at Toronto?s Rogers Centre
MIGHTY! QUINN...(13-14 in bowls)
Rutgers -10
--------------------------------
Best bets 5-11-1
Pitt + 2 (BEST BET)
Wash +3
Rutgers -10
--------------------------------
Best bets 5-11-1
Pitt + 2 (BEST BET)
Wash +3
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POINTWISE
WASHINGTON (9-7) at SEATTLE (10-6)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5 -- 4:30 PM EST -- NBC TELEVISION
LINE: SEATTLE BY 4? -- O/U: 40
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Washington 46.7 . 21- 19 .. 19-18 .. 104- 91 .. 216- 214 ... - 5 . Seattle
Seattle ......... 42.8 . 25- 18 .. 20-17 .. 101-103 .. 248- 219 .. +10 . by 5.3 Pts
Fifth straight playoff campaign for the Seahawks, who've been highly competitive
in these contests, surviving the famous Romo miscue LY. Hasselbeck has been
superb all season (28/12), & the host is 25-13 ATS in 'Hawk games. And try 29.6
ppg for Seattle in 8 of its last 9 games. 'Skins on 4-0 run (SU & ATS), & have held
11 foes below 21 pts. Portis (1,262) is motoring, & Collins is 5-0 as a starter lately,
but this is his first post-season start ever. We've been on Seattle at home all year.
PROPHECY: SEATTLE 23 - Washington 13 RATING: 3
JACKSONVILLE (11-5) at PITTSBURGH (10-6)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5 -- 8:00 PM EST -- NBC TELEVISION
LINE: JACKSONVILLE BY 1 -- O/U: 37?
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Jacksonville 45.6 . 26- 19 .. 21-18 .. 149-100 .. 208- 214 .. + 9 . Jacksonville
Pittsburgh ... 44.3 . 25- 17 .. 19-16 .. 135- 90 .. 192- 177 .. + 3 . by 0.8 Pts
Teams going in opposite directions, as the Jags are 7-0 ATS in meaningful games
lately, while averaging 30.4 ppg in their last 10 outings, & holding 10 of last 15 foes
<18 pts. Second in the NFL in rushing (Taylor: 5.4 ypr), & Garrard at 18/3. Pitt on
2-6 ATS slide, & had a 225-111 RY deficit in loss to J'Ville 3 wks ago. Ben a brilliant
32/11, but loss of Parker (1,361 RYs) is a killer. Hate bucking playoff home dog.
PROPHECY: JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 20 RATING: 6
WASHINGTON (9-7) at SEATTLE (10-6)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5 -- 4:30 PM EST -- NBC TELEVISION
LINE: SEATTLE BY 4? -- O/U: 40
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Washington 46.7 . 21- 19 .. 19-18 .. 104- 91 .. 216- 214 ... - 5 . Seattle
Seattle ......... 42.8 . 25- 18 .. 20-17 .. 101-103 .. 248- 219 .. +10 . by 5.3 Pts
Fifth straight playoff campaign for the Seahawks, who've been highly competitive
in these contests, surviving the famous Romo miscue LY. Hasselbeck has been
superb all season (28/12), & the host is 25-13 ATS in 'Hawk games. And try 29.6
ppg for Seattle in 8 of its last 9 games. 'Skins on 4-0 run (SU & ATS), & have held
11 foes below 21 pts. Portis (1,262) is motoring, & Collins is 5-0 as a starter lately,
but this is his first post-season start ever. We've been on Seattle at home all year.
PROPHECY: SEATTLE 23 - Washington 13 RATING: 3
JACKSONVILLE (11-5) at PITTSBURGH (10-6)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5 -- 8:00 PM EST -- NBC TELEVISION
LINE: JACKSONVILLE BY 1 -- O/U: 37?
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Jacksonville 45.6 . 26- 19 .. 21-18 .. 149-100 .. 208- 214 .. + 9 . Jacksonville
Pittsburgh ... 44.3 . 25- 17 .. 19-16 .. 135- 90 .. 192- 177 .. + 3 . by 0.8 Pts
Teams going in opposite directions, as the Jags are 7-0 ATS in meaningful games
lately, while averaging 30.4 ppg in their last 10 outings, & holding 10 of last 15 foes
<18 pts. Second in the NFL in rushing (Taylor: 5.4 ypr), & Garrard at 18/3. Pitt on
2-6 ATS slide, & had a 225-111 RY deficit in loss to J'Ville 3 wks ago. Ben a brilliant
32/11, but loss of Parker (1,361 RYs) is a killer. Hate bucking playoff home dog.
PROPHECY: JACKSONVILLE 23 - Pittsburgh 20 RATING: 6
CTO / CKO
*CHICAGO over Sacramento (NBA)...Willing to take a lead with Chicago bunch that showed signs of turning season around after Scott
Skiles was dismissed on Christmas Eve. Promoted assistant Jim Boylan immediately changed recipe, with G Ben Gordon now reprising his
role as NBA Sixth Man of the Year from his rookie season of 2004-05. And in first two games after change, Gordon went for 31 & 25,
respectively, in Bulls? wins over Bucks & Knicks. Meanwhile, Sacto reeling ever since blowing late lead in deflating home loss vs. Denver
Dec. 23, and Kings really beginning to miss presence of injured Gs Martin & Bibby.
*CHICAGO 99 - Sacramento 85 RATING - 10
*CHARLOTTE over Maryland (Bobcats Arena in Charlotte; Day Game)...With Charlotte enjoying partisan support in nearby Bobcats Arena,
favor 49ers, who now own depth at PG with recently-eligible 6-0 soph Gerrity (Pepperdine transfer) sharing time with speedy 5-9 soph
Harris (nearly 4 apg). Maryland has already lost as many home games (2) as it did all of LY, and Terps own just one legit 3-pointer shooter
in soph G Hayes. Charlotte?s star G Goldwire (20 ppg, 5 rpg) is most lethal weapon on court, and overvalued Maryland just 2-8 vs. number
TY. *CHARLOTTE 79 - Maryland 70 RATING - 10
*UTAH over Air Force (Day Game)...With Utah?s confidence level rising following upset at Cal in late December, ready to buck identityseeking
AF having trouble replacing its top 4 scorers, while adjusting to its 4th different coach in last 5 seasons. In contrast, good-shooting
Utes (51% FGs, 40% treys, 74% FTs) loving new HC Jim Boylen?s mixture of fast tempo & set plays, and undersized Falcons can?t cope
with Utah?s mobile 6-11 C Nevill (14 ppg, 7 rpg). Utes settle a score following piercing 26-pt. setback in Colorado Springs LY.
*UTAH 78 - Air Force 58 RATING -10
NORTHERN IOWA over *Indiana State...Since Northern Iowa performing with confidence on road (4-1 away, including upset & Bradley),
must buck ISU, which has a new HC Kevin McKenna (former Creighton assistant), but is beset with same old offensive issues (just 64 ppg,
42% FGs, 30% treys). And doubt Sycamores find solutions vs. sticky NI defense (56 ppg, 36% FGs, 29% from arc) that?s allowed 68 points
or fewer in every game this year. Watch Panthers productive high-low post tandem of 6-8 sr. F Coleman (12 ppg, 9 rpg) & emerging 7-1
soph Eglseder (12 ppg, 7 rpg; only 3.6 ppg LY) do damaging paint work vs. G-heavy host.
NORTHERN IOWA 73 - *Indiana State 63 RATING - 11
*CHICAGO over Sacramento (NBA)...Willing to take a lead with Chicago bunch that showed signs of turning season around after Scott
Skiles was dismissed on Christmas Eve. Promoted assistant Jim Boylan immediately changed recipe, with G Ben Gordon now reprising his
role as NBA Sixth Man of the Year from his rookie season of 2004-05. And in first two games after change, Gordon went for 31 & 25,
respectively, in Bulls? wins over Bucks & Knicks. Meanwhile, Sacto reeling ever since blowing late lead in deflating home loss vs. Denver
Dec. 23, and Kings really beginning to miss presence of injured Gs Martin & Bibby.
*CHICAGO 99 - Sacramento 85 RATING - 10
*CHARLOTTE over Maryland (Bobcats Arena in Charlotte; Day Game)...With Charlotte enjoying partisan support in nearby Bobcats Arena,
favor 49ers, who now own depth at PG with recently-eligible 6-0 soph Gerrity (Pepperdine transfer) sharing time with speedy 5-9 soph
Harris (nearly 4 apg). Maryland has already lost as many home games (2) as it did all of LY, and Terps own just one legit 3-pointer shooter
in soph G Hayes. Charlotte?s star G Goldwire (20 ppg, 5 rpg) is most lethal weapon on court, and overvalued Maryland just 2-8 vs. number
TY. *CHARLOTTE 79 - Maryland 70 RATING - 10
*UTAH over Air Force (Day Game)...With Utah?s confidence level rising following upset at Cal in late December, ready to buck identityseeking
AF having trouble replacing its top 4 scorers, while adjusting to its 4th different coach in last 5 seasons. In contrast, good-shooting
Utes (51% FGs, 40% treys, 74% FTs) loving new HC Jim Boylen?s mixture of fast tempo & set plays, and undersized Falcons can?t cope
with Utah?s mobile 6-11 C Nevill (14 ppg, 7 rpg). Utes settle a score following piercing 26-pt. setback in Colorado Springs LY.
*UTAH 78 - Air Force 58 RATING -10
NORTHERN IOWA over *Indiana State...Since Northern Iowa performing with confidence on road (4-1 away, including upset & Bradley),
must buck ISU, which has a new HC Kevin McKenna (former Creighton assistant), but is beset with same old offensive issues (just 64 ppg,
42% FGs, 30% treys). And doubt Sycamores find solutions vs. sticky NI defense (56 ppg, 36% FGs, 29% from arc) that?s allowed 68 points
or fewer in every game this year. Watch Panthers productive high-low post tandem of 6-8 sr. F Coleman (12 ppg, 9 rpg) & emerging 7-1
soph Eglseder (12 ppg, 7 rpg; only 3.6 ppg LY) do damaging paint work vs. G-heavy host.
NORTHERN IOWA 73 - *Indiana State 63 RATING - 11
POINTWISE - COLLEGE BASKETBALL
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
TEXAS TECH over Utep (Sat) RATING: 1
SAN JOSE STATE over Hawaii (Sat) RATING: 2
MASSACHUSETTS over Vanderbilt (Sat) RATING: 5
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
TEXAS TECH over Utep (Sat) RATING: 1
SAN JOSE STATE over Hawaii (Sat) RATING: 2
MASSACHUSETTS over Vanderbilt (Sat) RATING: 5
THE GOLD SHEET - (NBA) & (CBB)
ATLANTA by 16 over New Jersey (Saturday, January 5)
PORTLAND by 13 over Utah (Saturday, January 5)
SOUTH FLORIDA Plus over Syracuse (Saturday, January 5 Day)
OHIO U. by 14 over Bowling Green (Saturday, January 5 Day)
ATLANTA by 16 over New Jersey (Saturday, January 5)
PORTLAND by 13 over Utah (Saturday, January 5)
SOUTH FLORIDA Plus over Syracuse (Saturday, January 5 Day)
OHIO U. by 14 over Bowling Green (Saturday, January 5 Day)
THE SPORTS REPORTER - (NBA) & (CBB)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
BEST BET
BOSTON over *DETROIT by 9
It?s revenge time for the Celtics, who come to Detroit looking to exact some retribution
against the team that gave them their third loss. It?s a loss that?s stuck with them, as the
Celts went on a winning spree afterwards and that trend will continue today. Poor freethrow
shooting and an 0-4 night on three-pointers by Paul Pierce hurt them in the 87-85
home loss, when the winning points were delivered on a pair of free throws by Chauncey
Billups with one-tenth of a second remaining after being fouled by the Celtics? Tony Allen.
"It's a good lesson for our guys," Boston coach Doc Rivers said afterwards. "In shootaround
I had to get on them today about paying attention. One of the things we kept saying is
'Chauncey Billups pump fakes.?? BOSTON 91-82
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
RECOMMENDED
*NC CHARLOTTE over MARYLAND by 12 (at Bobcat Arena)
These Terps are slow learners, and so long as they continue to have problems with their
turnover ratios, foes will make them pay. Gary Williams? team will have a chance to feel
good at home vs. Holy Cross before diving into ACC?s deep end. NC CHARLOTTE, 78-66.
BEST BET
UTEP over *TEXAS TECH by 4
Bob Knight?s again having difficulties with his temper, as backwash of disciplinary action
stemming from his fit following the Utah game in mid-December feeds the chattering
classes. That win over Gonzaga doesn?t look so good, now, and other than a one-point loss
to Stanford in Dallas, this hasn?t been a distinguished campaign for the Red Raiders. Miners
got drilled at College Station, but that?s no disgrace. They DID manage a straight-up win at
New Mexico State. Red Raiders may be superior to NMS ? but not by much,.as inducing
top-tier hoop recruits to Lubbock remains problematic. In-state upset call, as Tony Barbee
gets most out his harmonious squad. UTEP, 73-69.
BEST BET
*STANFORD over USC by 16
Here, the nastiness of USC?s current scheduling sequence gains momentum, of the worst
sort. Don?t freak about that desultory win the Tree turned in over Fresno State, last weekend
. . . it instilled additional useful lessons in patience and ballhandling, which will come
in handy ? possibly here. There?s no denying Trojan talent, but the chemistry leaves much
to be desired, while Stan, with the Lopez boys, Anthony Goods, et al, play together, and perform
admirably in doing so. USC will be heard from, in spots, but this should be ALL
Cardinal. STANFORD, 86-70.
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
BEST BET
BOSTON over *DETROIT by 9
It?s revenge time for the Celtics, who come to Detroit looking to exact some retribution
against the team that gave them their third loss. It?s a loss that?s stuck with them, as the
Celts went on a winning spree afterwards and that trend will continue today. Poor freethrow
shooting and an 0-4 night on three-pointers by Paul Pierce hurt them in the 87-85
home loss, when the winning points were delivered on a pair of free throws by Chauncey
Billups with one-tenth of a second remaining after being fouled by the Celtics? Tony Allen.
"It's a good lesson for our guys," Boston coach Doc Rivers said afterwards. "In shootaround
I had to get on them today about paying attention. One of the things we kept saying is
'Chauncey Billups pump fakes.?? BOSTON 91-82
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5
RECOMMENDED
*NC CHARLOTTE over MARYLAND by 12 (at Bobcat Arena)
These Terps are slow learners, and so long as they continue to have problems with their
turnover ratios, foes will make them pay. Gary Williams? team will have a chance to feel
good at home vs. Holy Cross before diving into ACC?s deep end. NC CHARLOTTE, 78-66.
BEST BET
UTEP over *TEXAS TECH by 4
Bob Knight?s again having difficulties with his temper, as backwash of disciplinary action
stemming from his fit following the Utah game in mid-December feeds the chattering
classes. That win over Gonzaga doesn?t look so good, now, and other than a one-point loss
to Stanford in Dallas, this hasn?t been a distinguished campaign for the Red Raiders. Miners
got drilled at College Station, but that?s no disgrace. They DID manage a straight-up win at
New Mexico State. Red Raiders may be superior to NMS ? but not by much,.as inducing
top-tier hoop recruits to Lubbock remains problematic. In-state upset call, as Tony Barbee
gets most out his harmonious squad. UTEP, 73-69.
BEST BET
*STANFORD over USC by 16
Here, the nastiness of USC?s current scheduling sequence gains momentum, of the worst
sort. Don?t freak about that desultory win the Tree turned in over Fresno State, last weekend
. . . it instilled additional useful lessons in patience and ballhandling, which will come
in handy ? possibly here. There?s no denying Trojan talent, but the chemistry leaves much
to be desired, while Stan, with the Lopez boys, Anthony Goods, et al, play together, and perform
admirably in doing so. USC will be heard from, in spots, but this should be ALL
Cardinal. STANFORD, 86-70.
WINNING POINTS - (NBA) & (CBB)
Saturday, January 5
***BEST BET
New Orleans over *Phoenix by 5
You could do a lot worse than blindly play the Hornets on the road. New Orleans is
on a 16-5-1 ATS streak away from home entering 2008. Chris Paul is one of the few
point guard who doesn?t take a backseat to Steve Nash. Tyson Chandler can neutralize
Amare Stoudamire inside and the Hornets have the necessary outside shooters to
match the Suns? firepower. The Suns often are overpriced, especially at home. They are
3-6-1 ATS through Dec. 29 and haven?t been playing particularly well. NEW
ORLEANS 111-106
COLLEGE
Saturday, January 5
**PREFERRED
South Florida over Syracuse* by 3
Syracuse freshman forward Donte Green: "When we get lazy and worry about our
shots and how many points we're going to score, we can be the worst defensive team
in the country.? Thanks for the heads-up, kid. The more experienced team is the
underdog. Last season?s lone meeting came when South Florida was in the midst of
seven straight losses to close the season, and Syracuse was the home-court desperado
chasing an NCAA Tournament bid that didn?t come (Orange, Crushed!) The resulting
70-53 win by Syracuse was accomplished against only six USF players who could
actually play the game of basketball. First-season head coach Stan Heath takes a deeper,
fresher, more confident team into the Carrier Dome this time. SOUTH FLORIDA,
74-71.
***BEST BET
Valparaiso over Butler by 8
Horizon League highlight! Valpo is the new kid in town, an intra-state Indiana foe that
buses down from just south of Lake Michigan into Indianapolis seeking revenge for a
60-47 home-floor defeat last season. That game occurred in a nightmare spot on the
schedule ? off just one day of rest after Valpo had taken Marquette to the mat in a 3-
point loss on the same floor. Well rested Butler took full advantage, getting out to a
32-17 halftime lead. A deficit like that against Butler makes it feel more like 62-20
with three minutes remaining. Valpo has a good array of shooters and somebody made
a nicer schedule for them in advance of this re-hook, with a buffer vs. a tomato can
three days earlier. Highly ranked Butler?s value ? ridden here happily multiple times
recently ? has probably dried up. VALPARAISO, 65-57.
***BEST BET
James Madison over Hofstra* by 11
Hofstra coach Pecora is fiddling the same tune game after game: ?Try tried to tell us,
we?re too young.? And, it?s getting old. Whether or not leading scorer Antoine Agudio
is still bugged by a sore ankle and out, JMU, as advertised, has incorporated Bobby
Knight and Phil Martelli transfers while several holdovers have matured, most of it still
under the radar. Hofstra is the kind of team that when someone finally steps up to
complement Agudio?s scoring overload, that same someone will be out of position on
defense more than enough times to matter. JAMES MADISON, 78-67.
**PREFERRED
Baylor over Arkansas by 11 (at Dallas, TX)
Don?t stand in the way of the Wacos! They?re not playing home, but Baylor?s fourguard
offense probably has an edge against Arkansas? overload of bigs trying to learn
what?s going on in first-season head coach Pelfrey?s system. 7-foot shot-blocker
Mamadou Diene returned recently for the Bears to give them a body to play against
those bigs. Baylor features four double-digit scorers and two more flying just under the
10-point mark, making them hard to guard. Arkansas is sub-30% from three-point
range. BAYLOR, 81-70.
Saturday, January 5
***BEST BET
New Orleans over *Phoenix by 5
You could do a lot worse than blindly play the Hornets on the road. New Orleans is
on a 16-5-1 ATS streak away from home entering 2008. Chris Paul is one of the few
point guard who doesn?t take a backseat to Steve Nash. Tyson Chandler can neutralize
Amare Stoudamire inside and the Hornets have the necessary outside shooters to
match the Suns? firepower. The Suns often are overpriced, especially at home. They are
3-6-1 ATS through Dec. 29 and haven?t been playing particularly well. NEW
ORLEANS 111-106
COLLEGE
Saturday, January 5
**PREFERRED
South Florida over Syracuse* by 3
Syracuse freshman forward Donte Green: "When we get lazy and worry about our
shots and how many points we're going to score, we can be the worst defensive team
in the country.? Thanks for the heads-up, kid. The more experienced team is the
underdog. Last season?s lone meeting came when South Florida was in the midst of
seven straight losses to close the season, and Syracuse was the home-court desperado
chasing an NCAA Tournament bid that didn?t come (Orange, Crushed!) The resulting
70-53 win by Syracuse was accomplished against only six USF players who could
actually play the game of basketball. First-season head coach Stan Heath takes a deeper,
fresher, more confident team into the Carrier Dome this time. SOUTH FLORIDA,
74-71.
***BEST BET
Valparaiso over Butler by 8
Horizon League highlight! Valpo is the new kid in town, an intra-state Indiana foe that
buses down from just south of Lake Michigan into Indianapolis seeking revenge for a
60-47 home-floor defeat last season. That game occurred in a nightmare spot on the
schedule ? off just one day of rest after Valpo had taken Marquette to the mat in a 3-
point loss on the same floor. Well rested Butler took full advantage, getting out to a
32-17 halftime lead. A deficit like that against Butler makes it feel more like 62-20
with three minutes remaining. Valpo has a good array of shooters and somebody made
a nicer schedule for them in advance of this re-hook, with a buffer vs. a tomato can
three days earlier. Highly ranked Butler?s value ? ridden here happily multiple times
recently ? has probably dried up. VALPARAISO, 65-57.
***BEST BET
James Madison over Hofstra* by 11
Hofstra coach Pecora is fiddling the same tune game after game: ?Try tried to tell us,
we?re too young.? And, it?s getting old. Whether or not leading scorer Antoine Agudio
is still bugged by a sore ankle and out, JMU, as advertised, has incorporated Bobby
Knight and Phil Martelli transfers while several holdovers have matured, most of it still
under the radar. Hofstra is the kind of team that when someone finally steps up to
complement Agudio?s scoring overload, that same someone will be out of position on
defense more than enough times to matter. JAMES MADISON, 78-67.
**PREFERRED
Baylor over Arkansas by 11 (at Dallas, TX)
Don?t stand in the way of the Wacos! They?re not playing home, but Baylor?s fourguard
offense probably has an edge against Arkansas? overload of bigs trying to learn
what?s going on in first-season head coach Pelfrey?s system. 7-foot shot-blocker
Mamadou Diene returned recently for the Bears to give them a body to play against
those bigs. Baylor features four double-digit scorers and two more flying just under the
10-point mark, making them hard to guard. Arkansas is sub-30% from three-point
range. BAYLOR, 81-70.
JIM RICH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seattle under 40 1/2
Jags Over 38 1/2
best bets 11-5-1
Jags -2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Seattle under 40 1/2
Jags Over 38 1/2
best bets 11-5-1
Jags -2
DAVE MALINSKY
GAME: Ball St. @ Rutgers Jan 5, 2008 12:00PMSPORT: College Football PicksPICK: Ball St.Offered at: 11 REASON FOR PICK: 4* BALL STATE over RUTGERS
The past couple of years we have used Notre Dame as Exhibit A as to how media perceptions can create false impressions about college football programs, to the point at which the betting markets also end up reacting improperly. Now we get a chance to go to work with Exhibit B, with Greg Schiano and Rutgers getting a lot of play in the major Northeast media centers in recent years that has created an entirely different impression than what is really happening. Part of that market influence can be seen in an opener of -9.5 that is now reaching -11 in some key precincts, and this favorite simply does not deserve that kind of respect.
It is more than just the betting markets, however. In recent weeks Schiano actually was contacted for the Michigan head coaching job, which shows how others have fallen into the trap. Yes, Rutgers is a better team now than when he took over. But the bottom line is still just a 37-46 record in his eight seasons, with the lone bowl win coming over a mediocre Kansas State team LY. That does not earn you a round-trip ticket to Ann Arbor or lunch at Zingermans. And instead of building off of LY?s bowl win to begin reaching a higher level, the Scarlet Knights actually regressed this season. An awful non-conference schedule gave them walk-overs vs. Norfolk State, Army and Buffalo, which means that they were under .500 in all other games. How about road games vs. bowl opponents, one of our usual starting points in bowl breakdowns? There was just one, an ugly 38-19 loss at Connecticut in which they allowed the Huskies to run for 256 yards, their second high for the season, at 6.6 per carry, their high. And we all saw where Connecticut is at this time with our 4* ticket on Wake Forest last Saturday. At home the Scarlet Knights lost to the likes of Maryland and Cincinnati and nearly fell to Pittsburgh as well, while in the biggest challenge of the season they were destroyed 31-3 vs. West Virginia. They only time they boarded a plane in 2007 (they did not even play a road game until October 13th), they lost outright at disappointing Louisville. You can not go 7-5 vs. that class of schedule and be laying double figures in a bowl game, but that is where the perceptions are.
While Rutgers has had a great deal of media attention, Ball State is about as far off of the radar as a program can get. But NFL scouts are already watching sophomore QB Nate Davis, who threw for 3,376 yards with a special ratio of 27 touchdowns passes vs. only six interceptions this year, and his preferred targets will also end up playing on Sunday?s ? WR Dante Love caught 87 passes for 1,229 yards and nine TD?s, and TE Darius Hill caught 56 for 837, and also nine scores. They all return next season, so it is just the beginning for a program that has increased its win total for three straight seasons, and is showing real signs of progress.
Can Ball State play at this level? There is no question about that. The Cardinals have gone 5-1 ATS the past two seasons as road underdogs against teams from outside of the MAC, including 4-1 vs. bowl-bound opponents and there were some sparkling performances along the way ? a near-upset of Michigan LY, an outright win at Navy this season, and a near-miss at Nebraska this past September back when the Cornhuskers were still trying. And they also bring one of the prime ingredients that has helped underdog in this price range to play with far more passion at bowl time ? this game represents a real reward for them, while for Rutgers it is actually a step below where the Knights had hoped to be. A hungry underdog is in this one all the way, and even should Ball State fall behind the passing game creates outstanding back-door potential.
GAME: Ball St. @ Rutgers Jan 5, 2008 12:00PMSPORT: College Football PicksPICK: Ball St.Offered at: 11 REASON FOR PICK: 4* BALL STATE over RUTGERS
The past couple of years we have used Notre Dame as Exhibit A as to how media perceptions can create false impressions about college football programs, to the point at which the betting markets also end up reacting improperly. Now we get a chance to go to work with Exhibit B, with Greg Schiano and Rutgers getting a lot of play in the major Northeast media centers in recent years that has created an entirely different impression than what is really happening. Part of that market influence can be seen in an opener of -9.5 that is now reaching -11 in some key precincts, and this favorite simply does not deserve that kind of respect.
It is more than just the betting markets, however. In recent weeks Schiano actually was contacted for the Michigan head coaching job, which shows how others have fallen into the trap. Yes, Rutgers is a better team now than when he took over. But the bottom line is still just a 37-46 record in his eight seasons, with the lone bowl win coming over a mediocre Kansas State team LY. That does not earn you a round-trip ticket to Ann Arbor or lunch at Zingermans. And instead of building off of LY?s bowl win to begin reaching a higher level, the Scarlet Knights actually regressed this season. An awful non-conference schedule gave them walk-overs vs. Norfolk State, Army and Buffalo, which means that they were under .500 in all other games. How about road games vs. bowl opponents, one of our usual starting points in bowl breakdowns? There was just one, an ugly 38-19 loss at Connecticut in which they allowed the Huskies to run for 256 yards, their second high for the season, at 6.6 per carry, their high. And we all saw where Connecticut is at this time with our 4* ticket on Wake Forest last Saturday. At home the Scarlet Knights lost to the likes of Maryland and Cincinnati and nearly fell to Pittsburgh as well, while in the biggest challenge of the season they were destroyed 31-3 vs. West Virginia. They only time they boarded a plane in 2007 (they did not even play a road game until October 13th), they lost outright at disappointing Louisville. You can not go 7-5 vs. that class of schedule and be laying double figures in a bowl game, but that is where the perceptions are.
While Rutgers has had a great deal of media attention, Ball State is about as far off of the radar as a program can get. But NFL scouts are already watching sophomore QB Nate Davis, who threw for 3,376 yards with a special ratio of 27 touchdowns passes vs. only six interceptions this year, and his preferred targets will also end up playing on Sunday?s ? WR Dante Love caught 87 passes for 1,229 yards and nine TD?s, and TE Darius Hill caught 56 for 837, and also nine scores. They all return next season, so it is just the beginning for a program that has increased its win total for three straight seasons, and is showing real signs of progress.
Can Ball State play at this level? There is no question about that. The Cardinals have gone 5-1 ATS the past two seasons as road underdogs against teams from outside of the MAC, including 4-1 vs. bowl-bound opponents and there were some sparkling performances along the way ? a near-upset of Michigan LY, an outright win at Navy this season, and a near-miss at Nebraska this past September back when the Cornhuskers were still trying. And they also bring one of the prime ingredients that has helped underdog in this price range to play with far more passion at bowl time ? this game represents a real reward for them, while for Rutgers it is actually a step below where the Knights had hoped to be. A hungry underdog is in this one all the way, and even should Ball State fall behind the passing game creates outstanding back-door potential.
SPORTSINSIGTHS GAMES TO WATCH
*** 1-0 last week with bears ***
2007: 26-19 = 57.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers
By far the most lopsided bet game of the weekend is Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh. The Public is betting Jacksonville like they know the score! At the time of writing, almost 3 out of 4 bets placed are coming in on Jacksonville, even though they are on road. Public money has pushed Jax from a 1 pt Underdog to a 2.5pt Favorite. That?s 3.5pt swing! You very rarely see a home team Underdog in the playoffs. There is a tremendous ?buy back? opportunity taking Pittsburg +2.5 at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3
*** 1-0 last week with bears ***
2007: 26-19 = 57.8%
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers
By far the most lopsided bet game of the weekend is Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh. The Public is betting Jacksonville like they know the score! At the time of writing, almost 3 out of 4 bets placed are coming in on Jacksonville, even though they are on road. Public money has pushed Jax from a 1 pt Underdog to a 2.5pt Favorite. That?s 3.5pt swing! You very rarely see a home team Underdog in the playoffs. There is a tremendous ?buy back? opportunity taking Pittsburg +2.5 at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
January 4, 2008
******* by Tom Stryker *******
NFL Wild Card Super System
Back in 1990, the NFL decided to change its playoff format by adding two teams to the mix (one per conference). That move changed the Wild Card round to what it is today and brought us - the wagering public - even more opportunity to prosper. Thanks to my powerful NFL database I've recorded all of the results in the new Wildcard round since '90 and come up with some incredible results. Take a look at what I've found.
Since the 1990-91 season, NFL home teams in the Wildcard round are a respectable 47-21 SU and 36-29-3 ATS for 55.3 percent. There's enough reason right there to take Seattle, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and San Diego and call it a day. However, within this record, there are certain parameters that can be added that make this technical situation even stronger.
For example, if our host owns a won/loss percentage of .625 or better and finds itself matched up against a foe that carries a won/loss percentage less than .750, this Wildcard system improves to 32-24-2 ATS for 57.1 percent. What I've simply done is taken any host with a 10-6 SU record or better and matched them up against a foe with a 11-5 SU mark or worse. Three home teams remain after this first parameter: Seattle, Pittsburgh and San Diego.
If our home team was fortunate enough NOT to face a division foe last, this post season situation explodes to a sparkling 19-10-1 ATS for 65.5 percent. Division games tend to be more physical and obviously more competitive. By eliminating this parameter, I've removed a 13-14-1 ATS mark from this system. Only one playoff host remains in this set: The Seahawks.
Finally, it is important that our host enters off a straight up loss or a reasonable win. Off a blowout victory, our "play on" home team could check in at an inflated price. For example, with our 19-10-1 ATS record in hand and our host off a pointspread loss or ATS win of LESS than 10 points, this system zips to a sterling 17-6-1 ATS for 73.9 percent! Seattle applies to this tightener.
Good luck with the Seahawks on Saturday. I?ll be back next week with a look at the NFL?s Divisional Playoffs.
January 4, 2008
******* by Tom Stryker *******
NFL Wild Card Super System
Back in 1990, the NFL decided to change its playoff format by adding two teams to the mix (one per conference). That move changed the Wild Card round to what it is today and brought us - the wagering public - even more opportunity to prosper. Thanks to my powerful NFL database I've recorded all of the results in the new Wildcard round since '90 and come up with some incredible results. Take a look at what I've found.
Since the 1990-91 season, NFL home teams in the Wildcard round are a respectable 47-21 SU and 36-29-3 ATS for 55.3 percent. There's enough reason right there to take Seattle, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and San Diego and call it a day. However, within this record, there are certain parameters that can be added that make this technical situation even stronger.
For example, if our host owns a won/loss percentage of .625 or better and finds itself matched up against a foe that carries a won/loss percentage less than .750, this Wildcard system improves to 32-24-2 ATS for 57.1 percent. What I've simply done is taken any host with a 10-6 SU record or better and matched them up against a foe with a 11-5 SU mark or worse. Three home teams remain after this first parameter: Seattle, Pittsburgh and San Diego.
If our home team was fortunate enough NOT to face a division foe last, this post season situation explodes to a sparkling 19-10-1 ATS for 65.5 percent. Division games tend to be more physical and obviously more competitive. By eliminating this parameter, I've removed a 13-14-1 ATS mark from this system. Only one playoff host remains in this set: The Seahawks.
Finally, it is important that our host enters off a straight up loss or a reasonable win. Off a blowout victory, our "play on" home team could check in at an inflated price. For example, with our 19-10-1 ATS record in hand and our host off a pointspread loss or ATS win of LESS than 10 points, this system zips to a sterling 17-6-1 ATS for 73.9 percent! Seattle applies to this tightener.
Good luck with the Seahawks on Saturday. I?ll be back next week with a look at the NFL?s Divisional Playoffs.