SERVICE PLAYS FOR SAT. 1/5
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
Ben Burns
Main Event-------Ball st
WC RD TOY-------under pit/jax
Blowout winner----under sea/wash
Main Event-------Ball st
WC RD TOY-------under pit/jax
Blowout winner----under sea/wash
Robert Ferringo Football
4.5 unit LSU -4
4 unit Tampa -2.5
1.5 unit under 40 gaints/tampa
2.5 unit Pitt +3 -120
2 unit teaser SD-2 Under 47.5 Sea/Wash
1 unit under 39.5 Jax/pitt
4.5 unit LSU -4
4 unit Tampa -2.5
1.5 unit under 40 gaints/tampa
2.5 unit Pitt +3 -120
2 unit teaser SD-2 Under 47.5 Sea/Wash
1 unit under 39.5 Jax/pitt
Matt Rivers
MONSTER 200,000* BURIAL
200,000♦ Steelers
Jacksonville did pound Pittsburgh a few weeks ago at Heinz Field and is a great running team with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew but with revenge and once again the hime field it's all about the home Steelers today.
Mike Tomlin's team is far from healthy as Willie Parker and Aaron Smith are out and Troy Polamalu is still not 100% but this is an organization with a ton of pride and a team full of quality players. No matter how sound and good David Garrard has been this season Ben Roethlisberger is by far better and a Super Bowl Champion. The former Miami, Ohio Quarterback is a semi superstar and a guy who will make plays in this spot.
The Steelers have the number one defense in all of football and went 7-1 at home this season for a reason. They may not be coming into the playoffs playing at their highest level but this is still a borderline great team that is at home, at night, with revenge against a Jacksonville squad that is not ready to be fully trusted in a playoff scenario such as this one.
Garrard had only three interceptions all season long which is amazing but if you don't think that things will even out, if not for the Law of Averages alone then you are crazy. I can totally see things come crashing down today on Jack Del Rio's main man as he is good but he is far from being elite or even on the same level as Big Ben.
The Steelers will man up today after hearing all of the talk how they are done and will prove how difficult it is to beat a quality team twice in one season, no less in their home field both times.
This is still the Steelers for gosh sakes! Big Ben, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, a better than people think Najah Davenport and others at home at night and getting a few points!?!??!?! Can you say overadjustment for the public!??!?!!?
All of the squares will be playing this road chalk but I'm all about the home boys in this one
MONSTER 200,000* BURIAL
200,000♦ Steelers
Jacksonville did pound Pittsburgh a few weeks ago at Heinz Field and is a great running team with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew but with revenge and once again the hime field it's all about the home Steelers today.
Mike Tomlin's team is far from healthy as Willie Parker and Aaron Smith are out and Troy Polamalu is still not 100% but this is an organization with a ton of pride and a team full of quality players. No matter how sound and good David Garrard has been this season Ben Roethlisberger is by far better and a Super Bowl Champion. The former Miami, Ohio Quarterback is a semi superstar and a guy who will make plays in this spot.
The Steelers have the number one defense in all of football and went 7-1 at home this season for a reason. They may not be coming into the playoffs playing at their highest level but this is still a borderline great team that is at home, at night, with revenge against a Jacksonville squad that is not ready to be fully trusted in a playoff scenario such as this one.
Garrard had only three interceptions all season long which is amazing but if you don't think that things will even out, if not for the Law of Averages alone then you are crazy. I can totally see things come crashing down today on Jack Del Rio's main man as he is good but he is far from being elite or even on the same level as Big Ben.
The Steelers will man up today after hearing all of the talk how they are done and will prove how difficult it is to beat a quality team twice in one season, no less in their home field both times.
This is still the Steelers for gosh sakes! Big Ben, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, a better than people think Najah Davenport and others at home at night and getting a few points!?!??!?! Can you say overadjustment for the public!??!?!!?
All of the squares will be playing this road chalk but I'm all about the home boys in this one
WAYNE ROOT
Chairman - Seahawks
Millionaire - Ball St
No Limit - Steelers
College Hoops
Millionaire - Washington U
Money Maker - Utah
Insiders Circle - Kentucky
Chairman - Seahawks
Millionaire - Ball St
No Limit - Steelers
College Hoops
Millionaire - Washington U
Money Maker - Utah
Insiders Circle - Kentucky
Jeff Benton
Steelers 15*
As most of you know, I made a crapload of money in the NFL over the final month of the season, even going 13-0 over three successive Sundays before finally rolling snake eyes last week. How did I do it? More times than not, I did it by going against the grain, by taking the opposite play in so-called ?obvious? games. I did it by being a ?contrarian.? Here are a few examples:
In Week 16, when everyone loved the Vikings against the Redskins, I made Washington my Best Bet and said they?d probably win outright. They did. Same week, everyone loved the Packers over the Bears, and I made a strong case for Chicago. Another outright upset winner.
In Week 15, I played five of THE ugliest underdogs you could possibly find, taking the Raiders over the Colts, Eagles over the Cowboys, Redskins over the Giants, Panthers over the Seahawks and the Bears over the Vikings on Monday night. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, was on the opposite side of all five of those games. So what happened? The Eagles, Redskins and Panthers all pulled off stunning outright upsets, while the Raiders and Bears both covered inflated pointspreads.
In Week 14, among five winners, I played the Patriots over the Steelers when everyone and their mother was backing Pittsburgh, even saying the Steelers had a shot at the outright win. And then the week before that, I was one of the very few people on the planet to back the Ravens plus the points against New England.
So what does all that have to do with this selection today? The entire world ? from handicappers to TV talking heads, to Internet columnists, to amateur bettors, to the majority of wise guys ? is picking Jacksonville in this game. Hell, I?m sure when you saw this pick you probably wanted to pound your fist into the nearest wall, ticked off that I would support a team that no one is giving a chance to win. Well, there?s my point right there: Nobody is giving the Pittsburgh Steelers ? a team that won its division, a team that?s playing at home (where it went 7-1), a team with a veteran quarterback (who just happens to own a Super Bowl ring), a team with the No. 1 defense in the NFL ? a prayer tonight. And that makes absolutely NO sense.
Yes, I?m aware of Pittsburgh?s injury situations ? I will not gloss over that. You lose your best defensive lineman, your left tackle and your leading rusher in the span of three weeks, that?s huge. Not only that, but the Steelers? best defensive back and fierce defensive leader (Troy Polamalu) has been banged up for weeks and will not be at 100 percent, if he plays at all. I get all that. I also get that the Jags have been as hot and playing as well as any team in the NFL, including the Patriots, and that Jacksonville came to Pittsburgh three weeks ago and put it to the Steelers in a 29-22 win. All relevant points.
But this is the playoffs. This is Pittsburgh in January. And to ask a team from Florida to come into this environment and lay points is too much. I don?t care how ?built for cold weather? the Jags are; they?re still from Jacksonville. Also, their quarterback, who definitely played out of his mind this season, is still making his first-ever postseason start ? again, in Pittsburgh. Big Ben is making his seventh playoff start. Do NOT underestimate that fact.
Listen, guys, everywhere you turned the last three weeks, all you?d hear was ?watch out for the Jaguars,? ?nobody wants to play the Jaguars,? ?the one team that could give the Patriots fits is the Jaguars.? Well, I?m telling you, the Steelers are being shortchanged here, and I mean BIG TIME. And I think they?re going to use that disrespect as motivation, I think Roethlisberger is going to play very well, I think Davenport is going to run the ball effectively, I think the defense, after giving up more than 420 yards to Jacksonville three weeks ago, is going to be stout. And I think the Steelers are going to send Cinderella packing.
Bottom line: Remember the old adage, ?If something looks too good to be true, it is?? Well, never is this more poignant than in sports betting, especially in the NFL. And the fact of the matter is, the Jaguars look ?too good to be true.? EVERYONE is backing them ? everyone but us. Play the Steelers and watch once again as we collect when 95 percent of the public out there loses!
Seahawks
Well, after reading what I just wrote about the Jags-Steelers game, is it any wonder that I?m going to go against the grain again and play Seattle?
Here we go again with a home team that is getting the short-shrift from both the betting public, the oddsmakers and the media. The Seahawks are 23-4 in their last 27 games at Qwest Field, including 7-1 there this season and 5-0 against the number in their last five ? and they?re barely favored? Over the sixth-seeded Redskins, a team that needed to win four straight games just to get into this tournament? A team guided by a journeyman quarterback who, until a month ago, hadn?t started in this league in a decade? A team that lost its last playoff game two years ago in this very building by a 20-10 score?
What the hell am I missing here?
Listen, what the Redskins did to make the playoffs was impressive, there?s no denying that. But let?s not lose sight of the fact that they were under the gun to win all four of those games, and as such, they had to lay it all on the line and their starters got no rest whatsoever. To ask them to win a fifth consecutive pressure-packed game, including a third straight on the road, in one of the more hostile environments in the league, with Todd Collins at quarterback against an opportunistic defense that ranked second in the league in forced turnovers (41, including 20 INTs), is lunacy!
Guys, the Seahawks coasted over the final three weeks after wrapping up the NFC West title, so you can throw the two losses at Carolina (13-10) and at Atlanta (44-41) out the window ? meant nothing. Or, hell, you can include those games, plus a 33-30 overtime loss at Cleveland, and say Seattle was three field goals away from finishing the season on a 10-game winning streak! It?s true, look it up. So let me ask you: Had the Seahawks won those three road games at Cleveland, Carolina and Atlanta ? again, only one of them was meaningful ? do you think they?d only be a field-goal favorite today? Hell no! They?d be laying what they were two years ago when they hosted Washington in the playoffs, about 10 points.
Oh, and since we all know how huge playoff experience is this time of year, here?s a little nugget of information for you: Only two teams ? TWO ? have qualified for the postseason for at least five straight years. One is the Colts. The other? You guessed it, Seattle, which has won three straight home playoff games!
Just like Pittsburgh, another home team being disrespected will get it done today ? and I?ve got a feeling it?s not even going to be close!
Steelers 15*
As most of you know, I made a crapload of money in the NFL over the final month of the season, even going 13-0 over three successive Sundays before finally rolling snake eyes last week. How did I do it? More times than not, I did it by going against the grain, by taking the opposite play in so-called ?obvious? games. I did it by being a ?contrarian.? Here are a few examples:
In Week 16, when everyone loved the Vikings against the Redskins, I made Washington my Best Bet and said they?d probably win outright. They did. Same week, everyone loved the Packers over the Bears, and I made a strong case for Chicago. Another outright upset winner.
In Week 15, I played five of THE ugliest underdogs you could possibly find, taking the Raiders over the Colts, Eagles over the Cowboys, Redskins over the Giants, Panthers over the Seahawks and the Bears over the Vikings on Monday night. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, was on the opposite side of all five of those games. So what happened? The Eagles, Redskins and Panthers all pulled off stunning outright upsets, while the Raiders and Bears both covered inflated pointspreads.
In Week 14, among five winners, I played the Patriots over the Steelers when everyone and their mother was backing Pittsburgh, even saying the Steelers had a shot at the outright win. And then the week before that, I was one of the very few people on the planet to back the Ravens plus the points against New England.
So what does all that have to do with this selection today? The entire world ? from handicappers to TV talking heads, to Internet columnists, to amateur bettors, to the majority of wise guys ? is picking Jacksonville in this game. Hell, I?m sure when you saw this pick you probably wanted to pound your fist into the nearest wall, ticked off that I would support a team that no one is giving a chance to win. Well, there?s my point right there: Nobody is giving the Pittsburgh Steelers ? a team that won its division, a team that?s playing at home (where it went 7-1), a team with a veteran quarterback (who just happens to own a Super Bowl ring), a team with the No. 1 defense in the NFL ? a prayer tonight. And that makes absolutely NO sense.
Yes, I?m aware of Pittsburgh?s injury situations ? I will not gloss over that. You lose your best defensive lineman, your left tackle and your leading rusher in the span of three weeks, that?s huge. Not only that, but the Steelers? best defensive back and fierce defensive leader (Troy Polamalu) has been banged up for weeks and will not be at 100 percent, if he plays at all. I get all that. I also get that the Jags have been as hot and playing as well as any team in the NFL, including the Patriots, and that Jacksonville came to Pittsburgh three weeks ago and put it to the Steelers in a 29-22 win. All relevant points.
But this is the playoffs. This is Pittsburgh in January. And to ask a team from Florida to come into this environment and lay points is too much. I don?t care how ?built for cold weather? the Jags are; they?re still from Jacksonville. Also, their quarterback, who definitely played out of his mind this season, is still making his first-ever postseason start ? again, in Pittsburgh. Big Ben is making his seventh playoff start. Do NOT underestimate that fact.
Listen, guys, everywhere you turned the last three weeks, all you?d hear was ?watch out for the Jaguars,? ?nobody wants to play the Jaguars,? ?the one team that could give the Patriots fits is the Jaguars.? Well, I?m telling you, the Steelers are being shortchanged here, and I mean BIG TIME. And I think they?re going to use that disrespect as motivation, I think Roethlisberger is going to play very well, I think Davenport is going to run the ball effectively, I think the defense, after giving up more than 420 yards to Jacksonville three weeks ago, is going to be stout. And I think the Steelers are going to send Cinderella packing.
Bottom line: Remember the old adage, ?If something looks too good to be true, it is?? Well, never is this more poignant than in sports betting, especially in the NFL. And the fact of the matter is, the Jaguars look ?too good to be true.? EVERYONE is backing them ? everyone but us. Play the Steelers and watch once again as we collect when 95 percent of the public out there loses!
Seahawks
Well, after reading what I just wrote about the Jags-Steelers game, is it any wonder that I?m going to go against the grain again and play Seattle?
Here we go again with a home team that is getting the short-shrift from both the betting public, the oddsmakers and the media. The Seahawks are 23-4 in their last 27 games at Qwest Field, including 7-1 there this season and 5-0 against the number in their last five ? and they?re barely favored? Over the sixth-seeded Redskins, a team that needed to win four straight games just to get into this tournament? A team guided by a journeyman quarterback who, until a month ago, hadn?t started in this league in a decade? A team that lost its last playoff game two years ago in this very building by a 20-10 score?
What the hell am I missing here?
Listen, what the Redskins did to make the playoffs was impressive, there?s no denying that. But let?s not lose sight of the fact that they were under the gun to win all four of those games, and as such, they had to lay it all on the line and their starters got no rest whatsoever. To ask them to win a fifth consecutive pressure-packed game, including a third straight on the road, in one of the more hostile environments in the league, with Todd Collins at quarterback against an opportunistic defense that ranked second in the league in forced turnovers (41, including 20 INTs), is lunacy!
Guys, the Seahawks coasted over the final three weeks after wrapping up the NFC West title, so you can throw the two losses at Carolina (13-10) and at Atlanta (44-41) out the window ? meant nothing. Or, hell, you can include those games, plus a 33-30 overtime loss at Cleveland, and say Seattle was three field goals away from finishing the season on a 10-game winning streak! It?s true, look it up. So let me ask you: Had the Seahawks won those three road games at Cleveland, Carolina and Atlanta ? again, only one of them was meaningful ? do you think they?d only be a field-goal favorite today? Hell no! They?d be laying what they were two years ago when they hosted Washington in the playoffs, about 10 points.
Oh, and since we all know how huge playoff experience is this time of year, here?s a little nugget of information for you: Only two teams ? TWO ? have qualified for the postseason for at least five straight years. One is the Colts. The other? You guessed it, Seattle, which has won three straight home playoff games!
Just like Pittsburgh, another home team being disrespected will get it done today ? and I?ve got a feeling it?s not even going to be close!
Burns MAIN EVENT*25-14 L39 CFB, 13-2 L15 BIG EAST
Analysis: I'm taking the points with BALL STATE. The Scarlet Knights have enjoyed a remarkable turn-around the last couple of years and they've got a really solid team. However, regardless of what they may say, the Knights did not envision themselves playing in Canada, five days into the new year. This was a team that was ranked as highly as #10 at one point in the season. They were thinking BCS Bowl from before the time the season even started. Note that the Knights are just 7-18 SU (8-16-1 ATS) the last 25 times they played with two week's of rest in between games, including a double-digit home loss to Maryland after their bye week earlier this season. Additionally, note that the Knights only two road wins this season came at Syracuse and Army. Those teams went a combined 5-19! The Cardinals aren't from a big name conference. However, they closed out the season with back to back impressive wins, outscoring Toledo and Northern Illinois by a combined score of 68-41. Perhaps more importantly, they're very happy to be here. The Cardinals have shown an ability to play well on the road, as they won at Navy and lost by just a point to Nebraska. They also won road games at both Eastern and Western Michigan. Additionally, the Cardinals were 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season and are now 16-8 ATS in that role since 2005. Look for a highly motivated effort, as they give the Knights all they can handle and improve to 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points.
Indian Cowboy
Louisville -2.5
UNC Charlotte -1
Baylor -1 POD
:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :flush:
Louisville -2.5
UNC Charlotte -1
Baylor -1 POD
:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :flush:
LENNY 20* STEVENS
nfl
20 star washington
10 star pittsburgh
basketball
10 star providence
10 star michigan state
nfl
20 star washington
10 star pittsburgh
basketball
10 star providence
10 star michigan state
Psychic
NCAAF
3 units Ball State +11
NFL
3 units Washington +3.5
2 units over 39
3 units Jacksonville -2.5
2 units over 39.5
NCAAF
3 units Ball State +11
NFL
3 units Washington +3.5
2 units over 39
3 units Jacksonville -2.5
2 units over 39.5
The Rock Friday Night Hotside Hotline...Going for 6 in a Row
Saturday College Basketball
10* Northern Iowa +2
Brian Mac Friday Night Hotside:
Has Won 6 out of the Last 8
Sunday NFL San Diego Chargers
Saturday College Basketball
10* Northern Iowa +2
Brian Mac Friday Night Hotside:
Has Won 6 out of the Last 8
Sunday NFL San Diego Chargers
GLOBALWIDE SPORTS
NCAA Football Ball State vs. Rutgers
Pick: Ball State +11
We have all seen by now that the favorites aren't the way to go in the bowl games. The public hammers the favorites thinking that they are going to blow out the other teams. It just doesn't happen like this. When teams like Ball State come in to play, the public knows nothing about them and thinks they are going to get killed. Ball State has covered the spread 7 out of 11 games this year and continue to be a great bet. Rutgers has only won 5 out of 11, proving again that people love to bet on them. This isn't the Rutgers of last year. This is a Ball State team that only lost by 11 on the road to a much better Illinois team. Ball State can't blow teams out but they can stay in games. That's all we need.
NCAA Football Ball State vs. Rutgers
Pick: Ball State +11
We have all seen by now that the favorites aren't the way to go in the bowl games. The public hammers the favorites thinking that they are going to blow out the other teams. It just doesn't happen like this. When teams like Ball State come in to play, the public knows nothing about them and thinks they are going to get killed. Ball State has covered the spread 7 out of 11 games this year and continue to be a great bet. Rutgers has only won 5 out of 11, proving again that people love to bet on them. This isn't the Rutgers of last year. This is a Ball State team that only lost by 11 on the road to a much better Illinois team. Ball State can't blow teams out but they can stay in games. That's all we need.
Larry Ness
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (8-3 or 72.7% TY in CBB!)
My Oddsmaker's Error Play is on South Alabama at 8:00 ET. I've used South Alabama a number of times as a "big play" this year and I'll "go to the well" once more with the Jaguars. Ronnie Arrow, who led this team to two NCAA bids his first time around in Mobile (1987-94), was welcomed back from Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, where he led that program to the NCAA tourney as well. Western Ky has been the "class" of the SBC for quite awhile now and this is a BIG game for USA! The Jaguars match up well on the perimeter and win the battle inside. Western Ky's swingman Lee (20.3-3.9) leads an excellent perimeter game, joined by fellow seniors Brazelton (13.3) and Rogers (6.9). Three more guards chip in about 18 PPG. However, USA's senior duo of leading-scorer Bennett (20.0-5.8) and PG Merritt (12.0-4.9 APG) is joined by sophomore Tilford (14.5). Inside Western Ky has slightly more size but the team's two best frontcourt players, 6-9 freshman Magley and 6-9 Evans, only combine to average just over nine PPG and about 7.5 RPG. USA has two active 6-7 players in Davis (10.2-5.8) and Coleman (6.8-8.3) plus the 6-9 Douglas (5.4-4.8). USA has lost just three times TY. To still unbeaten Vandy and Ole Miss (both by just THREE points on the road!) and in Anaheim to Miami-O (by just five), a team which has beaten Xavier, Miss St and Illinois, while losing to USC (by 4), Louisville (by 3) and Dayton (by 1). Note that when Western Ky traveled to Southern Illinois (a team living only on its reputation these days), the Hilltoppers were getting five points and lost by 10. USA is laying about a FG less than that here, which makes little sense. Arrow knows this is one the "homefolks" want and he and his team (a perfect 8-0 at home so far TY) WON'T disappoint! Oddsmaker's Error on South Alabama.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NFL (12-2 or 85.7% ATS run last 12 NFL weeks!)-Sat
My Las Vegas Insider is on Jax/Pit Over at 8:00 ET. The Jags went to Pittsburgh in Week 15 and DOMINATED the game, building a 22-7 lead through three quarters, holding Pittsburgh to less than 100 yards (89). The Steelers rallied to tie it but the Jags put together a game-winning drive to win, 29-22, ending the game with a yardage advantage of 421-217. Will be it be deja vu all over again? In some respects, yes! I'm not entirely convinced the Jags will win, as it's a tough spot to win twice in Pittsburgh in the span of four weeks, when the Steelers were 7-1 at home TY. However, I do see a high scoring game. Willie Parker is now out for the Steelers and considering the Jacksonville rush D has allowed just 88.1 YPG on the ground since the team allowed 282 yards rushing in Week 1, I don't see the Steelers playing this game with a "run-first" mentality. Big Ben had the league's 2nd-best QB rating TY (104.1) and a franchise-high 32 TD passes! As for the Jags, their offensive is extremely balanced these days with Taylor (has averaged 120 YPG and 7.7 per in his last five starts) and Jones-Drew at RB, plus Garrard turning into one of the league's more efficient QBs. His QB rating was 102.2, with 64.0% completions and an 18-3 ratio. Consider this. In Del Rio's first four years at Jacksonville, the Jags scored 24 or more points just 19 times (64 games). In 2007, the Jags scored 24 or more points in each of their final 10 games (even the Pats can't say that!), averaging 30.4 PPG! Pittsburgh's D has been 'rocked' the last four games by both injuries and poor play, allowing 28.5 PPG, after allowing just 12.9 PPG through the season's first 12 games. Pitt's 2ndy had only 11 INTs this year (fewest in the league) and over the last four games, allowed 11 TDPs with three INTs. The weather report is MUCH better for Saturday's game than the snowy and windy conditions of the Week 15 meeting, plus this total actually opened just about two TDs lower than the final score of that first meeting (29-22). While the total is up a couple points, we still have a lot of 'breathing room!' Las Vegas Insider Jax/Pit Over.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer
Scott Spreitzer's CFB Saturday Bowl Knockout! *12-5, 71%!
I'm taking the points with Ball State. On more than one occasion this season, Rutgers was out-played in the trenches, not exactly flexing any type of physical advantage. It led to a dreadful record (1-4) against the Big East's top teams. There's no doubt that reports of Rutgers disappointment to be in this game are true. The Scarlet-Knights were thinking a return to a BCS bowl was in the cards following last year's great season. Ball State, meanwhile, is excited to be playing in their first bowl game in more than a decade. They have prepared for this one with enthusiasm, and have the offense to control the tempo. Sophomore QB Nate Davis became the starter under center midway through his freshman campaign. Davis has tosses 45 TD passes with only 14 interceptions in his young career, not to mention 53-hundred yards. And, besides owning the desire to be here, the Cardinals are also one of the most opportunistic teams in college football. BSU owns a +17 turnover margin, while Rutgers comes in at -6! This is the perfect example of an underrated yet extremely excited entry, facing a BCS school that's had a disappointing year and had to settle for the bowl they're in. And, we're getting double-digits to boot. I'm taking the points with Ball State, my Saturday Knockout. Thanks! GL! Scott
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (8-3 or 72.7% TY in CBB!)
My Oddsmaker's Error Play is on South Alabama at 8:00 ET. I've used South Alabama a number of times as a "big play" this year and I'll "go to the well" once more with the Jaguars. Ronnie Arrow, who led this team to two NCAA bids his first time around in Mobile (1987-94), was welcomed back from Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, where he led that program to the NCAA tourney as well. Western Ky has been the "class" of the SBC for quite awhile now and this is a BIG game for USA! The Jaguars match up well on the perimeter and win the battle inside. Western Ky's swingman Lee (20.3-3.9) leads an excellent perimeter game, joined by fellow seniors Brazelton (13.3) and Rogers (6.9). Three more guards chip in about 18 PPG. However, USA's senior duo of leading-scorer Bennett (20.0-5.8) and PG Merritt (12.0-4.9 APG) is joined by sophomore Tilford (14.5). Inside Western Ky has slightly more size but the team's two best frontcourt players, 6-9 freshman Magley and 6-9 Evans, only combine to average just over nine PPG and about 7.5 RPG. USA has two active 6-7 players in Davis (10.2-5.8) and Coleman (6.8-8.3) plus the 6-9 Douglas (5.4-4.8). USA has lost just three times TY. To still unbeaten Vandy and Ole Miss (both by just THREE points on the road!) and in Anaheim to Miami-O (by just five), a team which has beaten Xavier, Miss St and Illinois, while losing to USC (by 4), Louisville (by 3) and Dayton (by 1). Note that when Western Ky traveled to Southern Illinois (a team living only on its reputation these days), the Hilltoppers were getting five points and lost by 10. USA is laying about a FG less than that here, which makes little sense. Arrow knows this is one the "homefolks" want and he and his team (a perfect 8-0 at home so far TY) WON'T disappoint! Oddsmaker's Error on South Alabama.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NFL (12-2 or 85.7% ATS run last 12 NFL weeks!)-Sat
My Las Vegas Insider is on Jax/Pit Over at 8:00 ET. The Jags went to Pittsburgh in Week 15 and DOMINATED the game, building a 22-7 lead through three quarters, holding Pittsburgh to less than 100 yards (89). The Steelers rallied to tie it but the Jags put together a game-winning drive to win, 29-22, ending the game with a yardage advantage of 421-217. Will be it be deja vu all over again? In some respects, yes! I'm not entirely convinced the Jags will win, as it's a tough spot to win twice in Pittsburgh in the span of four weeks, when the Steelers were 7-1 at home TY. However, I do see a high scoring game. Willie Parker is now out for the Steelers and considering the Jacksonville rush D has allowed just 88.1 YPG on the ground since the team allowed 282 yards rushing in Week 1, I don't see the Steelers playing this game with a "run-first" mentality. Big Ben had the league's 2nd-best QB rating TY (104.1) and a franchise-high 32 TD passes! As for the Jags, their offensive is extremely balanced these days with Taylor (has averaged 120 YPG and 7.7 per in his last five starts) and Jones-Drew at RB, plus Garrard turning into one of the league's more efficient QBs. His QB rating was 102.2, with 64.0% completions and an 18-3 ratio. Consider this. In Del Rio's first four years at Jacksonville, the Jags scored 24 or more points just 19 times (64 games). In 2007, the Jags scored 24 or more points in each of their final 10 games (even the Pats can't say that!), averaging 30.4 PPG! Pittsburgh's D has been 'rocked' the last four games by both injuries and poor play, allowing 28.5 PPG, after allowing just 12.9 PPG through the season's first 12 games. Pitt's 2ndy had only 11 INTs this year (fewest in the league) and over the last four games, allowed 11 TDPs with three INTs. The weather report is MUCH better for Saturday's game than the snowy and windy conditions of the Week 15 meeting, plus this total actually opened just about two TDs lower than the final score of that first meeting (29-22). While the total is up a couple points, we still have a lot of 'breathing room!' Las Vegas Insider Jax/Pit Over.
Good Luck...Larry
Scott Spreitzer
Scott Spreitzer's CFB Saturday Bowl Knockout! *12-5, 71%!
I'm taking the points with Ball State. On more than one occasion this season, Rutgers was out-played in the trenches, not exactly flexing any type of physical advantage. It led to a dreadful record (1-4) against the Big East's top teams. There's no doubt that reports of Rutgers disappointment to be in this game are true. The Scarlet-Knights were thinking a return to a BCS bowl was in the cards following last year's great season. Ball State, meanwhile, is excited to be playing in their first bowl game in more than a decade. They have prepared for this one with enthusiasm, and have the offense to control the tempo. Sophomore QB Nate Davis became the starter under center midway through his freshman campaign. Davis has tosses 45 TD passes with only 14 interceptions in his young career, not to mention 53-hundred yards. And, besides owning the desire to be here, the Cardinals are also one of the most opportunistic teams in college football. BSU owns a +17 turnover margin, while Rutgers comes in at -6! This is the perfect example of an underrated yet extremely excited entry, facing a BCS school that's had a disappointing year and had to settle for the bowl they're in. And, we're getting double-digits to boot. I'm taking the points with Ball State, my Saturday Knockout. Thanks! GL! Scott
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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
5 unit Seattle -3
4 unit Jax/Pitt over 39
3 unit Rutgers -10
2 unit Tulsa -5
6 unit LSU -4
5 unit Seattle -3
4 unit Jax/Pitt over 39
3 unit Rutgers -10
2 unit Tulsa -5
6 unit LSU -4
