SERVICE PLAYS FOR SAT. 1/6

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SERVICE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY JAN. 6TH 2008

$$$$$$$$$$$$$ GOOD LUCK $$$$$$$$$$$$$

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Larry Ness

Weekend Wipeout Winner-NYG/TB (10-1 run since Thanksgiving!)

My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

For some reason, "conventional wisdom" seems to be saying that the Giants playing so well last week against the Pats is a NEGATIVE, while Tampa Bay's "non-efforts" the last two weeks (after clinching the NFC South after Week 15), is somehow a POSITIVE. I just don't get it? I'm not the biggest Coughlin fan or Eli fan for that matter, but the Giants have won their last SEVEN away games, going 6-0 ATS on the road, with a non-cover in that London win over the Dolphins. Garcia is being hailed a the "great savior" but he's hardly played since Week 9. There's no doubt he gave Gruden's offense stability at the QB position but over the season's last six weeks, he's thrown a total of just 69 passes, missing two full games and almost all of a third, due to an injury. He'll face a Giant D which still has some issues but ranked No. 1 in sacks with 53 and 8th in rushing D (97.7 YPG). Eli is off a great game vs the Pats (251 yards and four TDPs), Burress (70 catches / 12 TDs) is back healthy at WR (two TDs vs the Pats) and the HUGE Brandon Jacobs, who had 1,009 YR (5.0 YPC) despite missing five games, should find plenty of room against a smallish Tampa Bay defensive front. The Giants have had turnover troubles since Thanksgiving (losing a league-high 16) but I'm not about to handicap the turnover situation. The Giants are NOT an elite team but Tampa Bay doesn't even come close to being an elite opponent. The Giants are making their THIRD straight playoff appearance and hail from the NFC East, where three teams qualified for the playoffs, with the Eagles finishing at 8-8. The Buccs are off a 4-12 season and won the NFC South at 9-7, where the rest of the division went a collective 18-30. Why is Tampa Bay favored? Weekend Wipeout Winner on the NY Giants

 

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Dr Bob

Best Bet on Tampa Bay

Sunday
**TAMPA BAY (-3) 24 NY Giants 14
New York looked good last week in trying to beat New England, but the Tampa Bay is a better team than the Giants on both sides of the ball and that big emotional effort against the Patriots last week could hurt them today. It's tough to get so emotionally high for consecutive games and the New York has been a pretty inconsistent team in recent years (expecting Eli Manning to play well in consecutive games is a stretch). Manning looked good last week, but the Giants' quarterback has averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play this season against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback and New York's offense was just average for the season despite the strong rushing attack (5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and they are actually worse than average when you consider Manning's 20 interceptions. Tampa Bay is a strong defensive team that allowed just 4.6 yppl with their starters in (they played their backups in the final 6 quarters of the season) to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team, so I don't expect the Giants to do much offensively in this game even with a healthier version of big play receiver Plaxico Burress playing well in recent weeks.

Tampa Bay's offense is better than average on the ground (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr to an average team) and through the air with Jeff Garcia averaging 6.8 yppp against teams that would allow just 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, the Bucs are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively and Garcia has thrown just 4 interceptions in 322 passes (I exclude his 5 spikes). The Giants are a good defensive team, allowing 4.8 yppl from week 2 on (they had a different starting lineup in week 1 than they did the rest of the season and played horribly in that game against Dallas) to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl.

The Giants' strength is their defense but Tampa Bay's offense is just as good and the Bucs have a huge advantage with their offense against the Giants' mediocre attack. My math model favors Tampa Bay by 7? points and the Giants apply to a negative 32-70-3 ATS playoff situation. I'll take Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -1.10 odds or better) or at -2? (at -1.30 odds or less). I prefer -2 at -1.20 or less if you can get it.

SAN DIEGO (-10) 23 Tennessee 13
The Chargers started the season at 5-5 through their first 10 games, but they rallied to win their final 6 games and their late-season run is more indicative of their team than their slow start. The Chargers' offense rebounded from a slow start to averaged a modest 5.3 yards per play for the season with their first team offense on the field - against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Where the Chargers really improved was on defense and that transformation took place when up and coming star CB Antonio Cromartie joined the starting lineup in week 10. Cromartie had 10 interceptions and 18 passes defended despite starting just 8 games and San Diego's defense went from mediocre to very good with Cromartie in the starting lineup. The Chargers allowed just 4.5 yppl over their final 8 games, against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team, and that unit yielded just 240 yards at 3.8 yppl in an overtime win at Tennessee. I don't expect Tennessee to do much offensively against San Diego's tough defense with an attack that averaged just 4.9 yppl (excluding their week 17 game against Indy's backups) against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team.

Tennessee's defense allowed 4.9 yppl in their first 15 games (once again excluding their game against the Colts) to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense, but their run defense hasn't been the same since DT Albert Haynesworth was injured in mid-season. Haynesworth missed weeks 10 through 12, week 15 and most of week 17 and the Titans run defense went from great to below bad in those final 8 games. Haynesworth is back in the lineup but I don't think that he's close to 100% given that the Titans allowed 4.3 ypr to teams that would average only 3.9 ypr in the 3 recent games in which Haynesworth played following his injury (weeks 13, 14, and 16). Haynesworth played against San Diego in week 14 and the Chargers racked up 149 ground yards at 5.1 ypr in that game. Tennessee's defense is only 0.2 yppl better than average with Haynesworth not at 100%, but that's still a bit better than the Chargers' offense.

Not only does San Diego have a solid overall advantage from the line of scrimmage (thanks to their domination of Tennessee's offense) but the Chargers are also less likely to turn the ball over given Vince Young's habit of throwing interceptions (17 on 382 passes) and San Diego's habit of picking off passes (an NFL best 30 interceptions). Overall, my math model favors San Diego by 9' points after factoring in their defensive improvement and Tennessee's recent troubles stopping the run (even with Haynesworth). I really don't have an opinion on the side in this game (I'll lean with Tennessee at +10? or more), but I do lean with the Under in this game.

 

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Ben Burns

NFL

*Blue Chip
UNDER chargers/titans (37 or better)
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. San Diego Chargers Game Time: 1/6/2008 4:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Titans and Chargers to finish UNDER the total. The Titans held the Colts (minus starters) to 10 points at Indianapolis last week. The previous week, they held the Jets to just six. Naturally, both games stayed well below the number, bringing the UNDER to 10-5-1 in their 16 regular season games. The Chargers put up some big numbers at Oakland last week. However, they easily stayed below the number in their most recent home game, holding the Broncos to only three points. They're allowing an average of a mere 11.6 points their past three games and just 13.6 at home for the season. Opposing teams are managing to average only five points in the the first half. The Chargers have seen the UNDER go 10-5-1 the last 16 times they faced a team with a winning record. They've also seen the UNDER go 7-4-1 the last dozen times that they were coming off a win vs. a divisional opponent and 8-2 their last 10 games played in the month of January. As mentioned, both teams come in playing excellent defense. Both teams will also be featuring a heavy dose of the run, which will help the keep the clock moving. The Titans have seen the UNDER go 5-2-1 the last eight times they were listed as underdogs. The "push" occurred when the Chargers visited them earlier this month, as the teams combined for 40 points. The fact that the Chargers won that game is noteworthy as we find the UNDER at 2-0-1 the last three times that the Titans have faced a team which defeated them in an earlier meeting. I'm expecting another low-scoring affair on Sunday. *Blue Chip

*Wildcard card Game of the Year

TAMPA BAY (-3 or better)
Game: New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Time: 1/6/2008 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Reason: I'm laying the small number with TAMPA BAY. Its true that the Giants have played very well on the road this season. However, its also true that the Bucs have been every bit as good here at home. While the Giants outscored opponents by a 24.2 to 17.7 margin on the road, the Bucs outscored their opponents by a 23.4 to 13.5 margin at home. Note that the home team won all four games in last season's "Wildcard Round." Three of those victories came by a minimum of a field goal while two came by double-digits. Both teams lost last week. However, I believe that the Giants' loss will be more damaging as they really "left a lot on the field" in trying to hand the Pats their first loss. Additionally, starting weakside linebacker Kawika Mitchell and center Shaun O'Hara sprained knees and cornerback Sam Madison aggravated a pulled stomach muscle. That was a pretty novel approach by Tom Coughlin and it won him some praise from the fans and the media. However, I believe that Gruden, who rested many of his starters, showed the much smarter judgement. The Bucs had also largely gone through the motions the previous week, losing at San Francisco. That's just fine though as they'll be bringing an entirely different attitude on Sunday. Its also worth mentioning that they're 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times they were coming off back to back losses and 5-1-1 the last seven times that they were coming off a division loss. When asked if his strategy to rest players might backfire against the Panthers, Gruden insisted it would not: "No disrespect to Carolina and all this other stuff because it's irrelative right now. Whatever your record is is your record when you get to the playoffs. I've seen teams walk into the playoffs and win the Super Bowl..." However, I've felt that Gruden was a better coach long before last week. That opinion is supported by the fact that Gruden has won a Super Bowl with the Bucs while Coughlin has never won a playoff game with the Giants, despite having had some talented teams. Look for Gruden to get the better of Coughlin this afternoon as the Bucs advance while improving to 5-0 SU/ATS the last five times that they played a game with an over/under line ranging from 38.5 to 42. *Wildcard card Game of the Year

 

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Point Train

BUCS/GIANTS WILD CARD WINNER

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) over New York Giants

Rating: 3 units

TAMPA BAY (-) over NY Giants at 1 pm EST The outcome of this NFC Wild Card contest will come down to quarterback play. And this is one area where the Buccaneers have a major advantage. New York QB Eli Manning is a turnover waiting to happen while Tampa QB Jeff Garcia takes care of the ball better than almost any other quarterback. Manning had a solid outing against New England last week but that was more a fluke than anything else. The eight games prior to last week saw Manning complete just 51% of his passes and throw 10 interceptions compared to just 6 touchdowns. He?ll have his work cut out for him against the NFL?s top-ranked pass defense. The Bucs allow just 170.9 passing ypg and have picked off 16 passes. Garcia has been the perfect QB for HC Jon Gruden?s system, limiting turnovers and taking the big play when it?s there. He owns a 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has completed nearly 64% of his passes. Garcia will get plenty of help from RB Earnest Graham, who ran for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in limited action this year. The Giants have gone to the playoffs each of the last two years under Manning, losing both games. Manning completed just 57% of his passes in those two playoff games for 137 ypg with four interceptions and just two touchdowns. He just doesn?t have what it takes to lead this team any further than the Wild Card round. Ride with the Bucs.

 

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AAA

NFL: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Buccaneers -2.5 (Heavy Hitter) -110 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 1/6/2008
Note: The New York Giants haven't won a playoff game since 2001. That awful streak is likely to continue as they travel to Tampa Bay to play a Bucs team that has faltered a bit with an ailing Garcia. He is much more healthy now and we must remmeber that he has engineered two playoff victories over the Giants in the past six seasons, most recently last year. The Giants lead the league in QB Sacks with 53 this year and that is something to be concerned about. But we do know that Jeff can scramble and he can run the ball if needed. That should help this team in a big way, and the fact is, Garcia has not seen the turf very often this year. But that is not the reason why I love the home team in this one. The Bucs can play a little D themselves and are second in the league in yards allowed (278.4 per game), first in passing defense (170.5) and third in points allowed (16.9). Being from Mississippi, I always like to see the Mannings do well but Archie's youngest has a problem with pressure and he always has. He is going to get plenty of that Sunday. I have seen him often, and I have seen him fail against good D's and I have seen him get on INT Rampages. His 20 thrown this year is almost more than his TD passes. In this hostile environment that Tampa will present I suspect that Eli might make a mistake or two, and that is all that we are going to need. While Tampa Bay has some injury issues, the Giants also could be missing some key players Sunday. Madison, along with center Shaun O'Hara and linebacker Kawika Mitchell, did not practice Wednesday, and Coughlin wouldn't speculate on their status. New York is also without tight end Jeremy Shockey, who suffered a broken leg Dec. 16 against Washington and was placed on injured reserve. This game is going to be very entertaining from a defensive standpoint and if they were playing at a neutral site, I would not be making this play. But they are not, they are at TB, where the Bucs have been dominating the League on D, with 13.5 points per game allowed and 6-1 ATS last 7 in games that mean anything. I am not counting the loss to Carolina for obvious reasons. With this small number to lay, we pretty much just have to win the game and that is something the Giants have not been able to do in these games we call The NFL Playoffs

 

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Wild Bill

Tampa -2 1/2 (1 unit) It's tough for me to back a Coughlin coached team and the Giants have been tough on the road, however they beat below 500 teams on the road and are coming off a hard fought 3 point defeat to the Patriots and Eli had the game of his life. Giants -8 on turnover margin will be a factor as Tampa is +12 in turnovers. Running game will be the key here and Buccaneers are tough vs the run though they gave up plenty of yards to Carolina last week. Home team gets the edge here along with Garcia who took the Giants out of the playoffs last year for the Eagles. Tampa 20 Giants 13.


San Diego -8 1/2 (1 unit) Like the Chargers here at home where they are 7-1 this year and have a 14 point ave margin edge. Also defense will give runners and Vince Young fits all day long. Rivers should hit his tall receivers and LT will break out. Bolts beat Tennessee last year 40-8 at home and won in OT in Nashville 23-17 after Tennessee had them down and out. Titans also off hard fought win vs Colts to get into the playoffs. Chargers too much here, SD 27 Tenn 17.

 

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EZ Winners

5 STAR: (738) CLEMSON (+5) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
6:30 PM Central Time

1 STAR: (724) WEST VIRGINIA (-1.5) over Marquette
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 PM Central Time

1 STAR: (734) AUBURN (+8) over Xavier
(Risking $110 to win $100)
2 PM Central Time

1* Seattle +8.5 (NBA)

 

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Allen Eastman / ACE ACE

4 unit Tampa -2.5

4 unit sd-6.5 first half

 

[quanjin]

John Ryan's 10* NFL and NCAA plays today....

John Ryan's 10* NFL and NCAA plays today....

He's really on a hot streak right now.
**He won 7* on WVU, 5* on Kansas, 5* on Seahwks, and 10* on OVER in the Jac/Pitt game**

NFL
Ryan's 10* Monster Playoff Side Game of the Year

College Football
Ryan's 5* MONSTER Bowl Bailout Play


Thanks in advance.

 

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Strikepoint Sports

4 unit Tulsa -5
5 unit Tampa -2.5

 

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Kelso

Sunday FB

10 units Giants +3 v. Tampa Bay
5 units UNDER 39.5

10 units Chargers -10 v. Tenn
5 units UNDER 39

5 units Tulsa -5.5 v. Bowling Green

Kelso is 14-23 in bowl picks and 1-6 in pro picks in his "Dynamite Dozen" program
and -105 units after losing his 50 unit game on the Jags -2.5 yesterday

 

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DCI


COLLEGE HOOPS

America East Conference
ALBANY 70, Vermont 69
BINGHAMTON 67, Boston U. 63
Umbc 78, NEW HAMPSHIRE 71
STONY BROOK 64, Maine 60


Atlantic Coast Conference
North Carolina 89, CLEMSON 81


Big East Conference
Pittsburgh 78, VILLANOVA 76
WEST VIRGINIA 75, Marquette 73


Big Sky Conference
Weber State 65, NORTHERN COLORADO 60


Big Ten Conference
ILLINOIS 65, Penn State 59
OHIO STATE 78, Northwestern 52


Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
LOYOLA (MD.) 77, Iona 72
RIDER 79, Canisius 62
SIENA 90, Saint Peter's 71


Mid-American Conference
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 74, Eastern Michigan 69
KENT STATE 79, Buffalo 61
TOLEDO 61, Ball State 48


Missouri Valley Conference
Drake 63, EVANSVILLE 53


Non-Conference
COLUMBIA 60, American 57
DUKE 98, Cornell 72
GEORGIA TECH 83, Presbyterian 55
LEHIGH 63, Princeton 52
Xavier 75, AUBURN 67



NCAAF

GMAC Bowl
at Mobile, AL
Bowling Green 47, Tulsa 42



NFL

Sunday, January 6, 2008

NFC Wild Card Round
N.Y. Giants 24, TAMPA BAY 18

AFC Wild Card Round
SAN DIEGO 25, Tennessee 15




NHL

Buffalo vs. ATLANTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit 3, CHICAGO 2

 

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Special K

20 tenesee
20 tb
20 bowling green

 

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Robert Ferringo

4 unit Tampa -2.5

1.5 unit under 40 gaints/tampa


2 unit teaser SD-2 Under 47.5 Sea/Wash

 

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Armvin Sports

CFB
BOWLING GREEN at TULSA Under 76.5


NFL
NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY Over 39.5
TENNESSEE 10

CBB
PITTSBURGH 4.5
TOLEDO -10.5
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -6.5
LOYOLA MARYLAND -3

NHL
BUFFALO at ATLANTA Under 6

 

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Mike Rose

CBB
NORTH CAROLINA -5

CFB
TULSA -4.5

NFL
NY GIANTS at TAMPA BAY Over 39.5
TENNESSEE 10

 

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Jeffersonsports

NFL EARLY RELEASE
TAMPA BAY-2.5 -120

 

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Teddy June


10* NFL Wildcard Sunday Winner
Tampa Bay Buccaneers


10* NFL Wildcard Total of the Week Titans/Chargers Under

 

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Handicapper World


Giants @ Buccaneers
Line: 3
Pick: Buccaneers -3 (HUGE)


Titans @ Chargers
Line: 10
Pick: Titans +10