Big Al
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers minus the points over Tennessee, as LaDainian Tomlinson & Co. fall into a longstanding NFL Playoff system that has cashed 70% ATS since 1980. Last year, the Chargers were 14-2 and had the league's best record, but San Diego was upset in its first playoff game by New England. Historically, these upset victims bounce back strong in their first playoff game the following year, and especially when they are at home, where they cash 70% ATS. Although these two teams played a tight, Overtime contest earlier this year, the last time they met in San Diego (at the start of last year), San Diego overwhelmed Tennessee 40-7. Tennessee won 16-10 last week over a disinterested Colts team, and probably wouldn't have made the playoffs if Indianapolis cared. Finally, double-digit underdogs are a money-burner in the post-season, including a dismal 5-14 ATS off a win of 6+ points. Take the Chargers.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs, as TB falls into playoff systems of mine that are 41-16, 10-1, 17-4 and 7-0 ATS. Let's take a look at our 7-0 angle. It doesn't happen very often, but we want to fade playoff teams that gave up 28 or more in their previous game, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU loss. Last week, the Giants fell 38-35 to New England, while Tampa lost 31-23 to the Panthers. This angle also had a winner on the Steelers over Jacksonville last night. Eli Manning has struggled in the playoffs for New York, losing 23-20 to Philly and 23-0 to Carolina. His opposing QB, Jeff Garcia, has played very well vs. New York, with wins in four of five games, including a perfect 2-0 in the playoffs. Garcia's QB rating was 94.6, seventh in the NFL, and the veteran had just four interceptions to go along with 13 TDs. I look for his experience to be the difference in this game, and we'll take the Bucs minus the points.
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the 19th-ranked Clemson Tigers plus the points over North Carolina. The spread on this game opened at -4 and has already ticked up a point to -5. This is too many points to lay a strong home club like Clemson, notwithstanding the fact that the Tigers have dropped six straight games to the Tar Heels. The Tigers have won 32 of their previous 40 home games straight up (including 11 straight heading into tonight), and are also 12-1 overall this year, with their only loss by 3 points vs. Ole Miss. Also, consider that .750 or better revenging home dogs of +7 or less points are 70% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. North Carolina is unbeaten and ranked #1, but this will be its first game against a ranked opponent this season. I look for Clemson's pressure defense to be the difference here. Take the points with Clemson.
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Bowling Green. Tulsa lost the Conference USA Championship game, 44-25, at Central Florida, but had a very strong season, with nine wins. Tulsa also ranked 10th in the nation in scoring at 39.5 ppg, and is led by QB Paul Smith, who threw for 4753 yards and 42 TDs. His top two targets are Brennan Marion and Trae Johnson. Perhaps the most impressive feat of Smith, this season, was that he threw for 300+ yards in every game. Although Tulsa had a very good year on the scoreboard, it was a money-burner in Las Vegas. After opening the season with two ATS wins (over LA Monroe and BYU), the Golden Hurricane proceeded to drop nine of its last 11 games to the spread, including its final three games at Army, Rice, and Central Florida. But this will be Tulsa's first game on a home or neutral field since November 10th's match vs. Houston (a 56-7 Blowout Win for Tulsa), and I've got a great system on the Golden Hurricane which plays on certain teams off three or more ATS losses. What we want to do is take a .333 (or better) team on a home/neutral field off 3 ATS losses, if the line is less than 11 points, and it is matched up against a .600 (or better) foe off three or more ATS wins. This system is a super 68% ATS since 1980, including 2-0 in this year's Bowl season, with wins on California over Air Force and Oregon over South Florida. And if our 'play-on' team is off a straight-up loss and was not favored by more than 6 points in that loss, then our 68% ATS stat moves to a perfect 19-0, 100% ATS. Take Tulsa in a blowout.
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes plus the points over LSU, as the Bucks fall into 33-25 and 31-16 ATS systems of mine. But the reason I like Ohio State in this game comes down to coaching, and rushing offense/defense. From his days at Youngstown State to the present, there has not been a more successful Championship coach than Jim Tressel. He's been here before, and his decision-making is much better than Les Miles, who often acts like a riverboat gambler (recall his decision to throw into the end zone vs. Auburn, instead of kicking a game winning FG). I do like Bo Pelini, however, but the LSU defensive coordinator may have been a bit distracted these last few weeks since he's off to become Nebraska's head coach after this game. The Buckeyes completely shut down Michigan at the end of the season, and held the Wolves to 3 points (but that Michigan team put up 41 vs. the SEC's Florida Gators). Overall this season, Ohio State allowed just two rushing touchdowns (and those two scores came in games OSU won by a combined 39 points)! Just two rushing TDs?! That's mind-boggling. On the offensive side of the ball, OSU has RB Chris Wells, perhaps the best RB in the nation in the 2nd half of the season. Wells got 222 yards against Michigan, 221 vs. Michigan State, 169 vs. Wisconsin, 133 vs. Penn State, and 76 vs. Illinois (but OSU was playing from behind, and had to throw the ball). LSU has shown a tendency this year to give up a lot of rushing yards. It surrendered over 150 to Florida and Ole Miss, and 385 to Arkansas! With the spread being more than a field goal, we'll take the Buckeyes.