SERVICE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY JAN. 13TH 2008
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------------- GO GIANTS !!!!!!-------------
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------------- GO GIANTS !!!!!!-------------
SERVICE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY 1/13
- Thread starter GIANTS007
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WINING POINTS
*Indianapolis over San Diego by 13
Back in Week 10, the Colts traveled to San Diego to meet the Chargers as
three-point favorites.Things couldn?t have gone any better for the Chargers.
The evening weather was bad with rain; Darren Sproles returned both a
kickoff and punt for touchdowns and Peyton Manning threw a franchiseworst
six interceptions. Given all that you would think the Chargers would
have beaten the Colts by three touchdowns at home, right? Heck, San Diego
was lucky to escape with a 23-21 victory. Normally reliable and clutch kicker
Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, including a 29-yarder with 1:31 left
that may have given Indianapolis the victory. If the Chargers can?t prevail
with all those circumstances going their way, how do they win this
matchup at Indianapolis? fast-track dome stadium? They don?t unless you
believe Hall of Famer Manning is going to throw seven interceptions,
Sproles is going to return three kicks for touchdowns and possible Hall of
Famer Vinatieri is going to blow three field goals of under 43 yards like he
did back in Week 10. The Chargers have turned around their season after
opening 1-3. They?ve won and covered their last seven games. However,
their only opponent with a winning record during this span was Tennessee.
The good news for San Diego is Marty Schottenheimer isn?t coaching this
playoff game. The bad news is that Norv Turner is. Tony Dungy against
Turner is a mismatch. Philip Rivers finished the regular-season with three
straight games of passer ratings of 100 or above. LaDainian Tomlinson
remains the best back in football. The Titans held Tomlinson to 42 yards
rushing on 21 carries, though.The Colts? run defense is respectable.They?ll
be keying on Tomlinson just like the Titans did, daring Rivers to beat them.
Despite Rivers? recent strong statistical performances, he has yet to prove
himself under difficult road conditions. He also may not have his top receiving
threat, three-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates. He was carted off
the field during Sunday?s playoff win against the Titans with a toe injury.
Manning has multiple weapons.The Colts have been holding back Marvin
Harrison.This is the matchup where the Colts unleash Harrison to go with
Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. It was Wayne, not Randy Moss,
who led the NFL in receiving yards this season.The Colts have been idle for
three weeks if you count their Week 17 loss to the Titans when Dungy sat
down most of his regulars for most of the game. They?ll be ready. INDIANAPOLIS
30-17.
New York Giants over *Dallas by 1
Since beating Green Bay, Dallas has done nothing except look bad and sustain
injuries.During their last four games, the Cowboys nipped the Lions by
one point - thanks to a missed short field goal by normally reliable Jason
Hanson - edge the Eagles by four at home, beat the Panthers in a flat performance
and roll over to the Redskins by hardly trying in a 27-6 loss.The
Cowboys are averaging less than 11 points during their past three games.
That?s not a real good way to enter your opening playoff game.The Giants,
on the other hand, have established momentum.They can play loose with
the pressure squarely on Dallas. Eli Manning has stepped up to play well in
the Giants? last two games versus New England and Tampa Bay. Manning has
temporarily silenced his critics now that he?s achieved a playoff win.The
Giants have responded best in those cases when they?re not expected to
win. That?s been their style all season. They nearly upset the undefeated
Patriots two weeks ago, losing 38-35.They are 8-1 SU on the road, 7-2 ATS.
Brandon Jacobs is running well, the secondary is holding up, while the
defensive line continues to get sacks. New York led the NFL with 53 sacks.
The Giants have covered eight of their last 11 versus NFC competition.
They know the Cowboys well, too, having played them twice.The Cowboys
got hit by injuries late in the season. Pro Bowl center Andre Gurode and
Terrell Owens may not be able to play.Veteran wide receiver Terry Glenn is
back for Dallas after being sidelined nearly the entire season because of
knee trouble.Owens is their main weapon. He suffered a high ankle sprain
against Carolina. Being a quick healer, he may be able to play although
probably not at 100 percent. The Cowboys only have managed four field
goals in six quarters being without Owens.The last time Dallas won a playoff
game was 1996.Yes it has been that long.Tony Romo had an excellent
season, yet remains largely untested in postseason competition.The Giants
have double-revenge going for them.They know they can certainly score on
Dallas at Texas Stadium having put up 35 points and gained 438 yards when
they met the Cowboys opening week on the road. It?s not the easiest thing
beating a quality team three times in a season, but that?s what the Cowboys
are trying to accomplish here.They may be able to do it, but it won?t come
easy. NY GIANTS 28-27.
*Indianapolis over San Diego by 13
Back in Week 10, the Colts traveled to San Diego to meet the Chargers as
three-point favorites.Things couldn?t have gone any better for the Chargers.
The evening weather was bad with rain; Darren Sproles returned both a
kickoff and punt for touchdowns and Peyton Manning threw a franchiseworst
six interceptions. Given all that you would think the Chargers would
have beaten the Colts by three touchdowns at home, right? Heck, San Diego
was lucky to escape with a 23-21 victory. Normally reliable and clutch kicker
Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, including a 29-yarder with 1:31 left
that may have given Indianapolis the victory. If the Chargers can?t prevail
with all those circumstances going their way, how do they win this
matchup at Indianapolis? fast-track dome stadium? They don?t unless you
believe Hall of Famer Manning is going to throw seven interceptions,
Sproles is going to return three kicks for touchdowns and possible Hall of
Famer Vinatieri is going to blow three field goals of under 43 yards like he
did back in Week 10. The Chargers have turned around their season after
opening 1-3. They?ve won and covered their last seven games. However,
their only opponent with a winning record during this span was Tennessee.
The good news for San Diego is Marty Schottenheimer isn?t coaching this
playoff game. The bad news is that Norv Turner is. Tony Dungy against
Turner is a mismatch. Philip Rivers finished the regular-season with three
straight games of passer ratings of 100 or above. LaDainian Tomlinson
remains the best back in football. The Titans held Tomlinson to 42 yards
rushing on 21 carries, though.The Colts? run defense is respectable.They?ll
be keying on Tomlinson just like the Titans did, daring Rivers to beat them.
Despite Rivers? recent strong statistical performances, he has yet to prove
himself under difficult road conditions. He also may not have his top receiving
threat, three-time Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates. He was carted off
the field during Sunday?s playoff win against the Titans with a toe injury.
Manning has multiple weapons.The Colts have been holding back Marvin
Harrison.This is the matchup where the Colts unleash Harrison to go with
Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. It was Wayne, not Randy Moss,
who led the NFL in receiving yards this season.The Colts have been idle for
three weeks if you count their Week 17 loss to the Titans when Dungy sat
down most of his regulars for most of the game. They?ll be ready. INDIANAPOLIS
30-17.
New York Giants over *Dallas by 1
Since beating Green Bay, Dallas has done nothing except look bad and sustain
injuries.During their last four games, the Cowboys nipped the Lions by
one point - thanks to a missed short field goal by normally reliable Jason
Hanson - edge the Eagles by four at home, beat the Panthers in a flat performance
and roll over to the Redskins by hardly trying in a 27-6 loss.The
Cowboys are averaging less than 11 points during their past three games.
That?s not a real good way to enter your opening playoff game.The Giants,
on the other hand, have established momentum.They can play loose with
the pressure squarely on Dallas. Eli Manning has stepped up to play well in
the Giants? last two games versus New England and Tampa Bay. Manning has
temporarily silenced his critics now that he?s achieved a playoff win.The
Giants have responded best in those cases when they?re not expected to
win. That?s been their style all season. They nearly upset the undefeated
Patriots two weeks ago, losing 38-35.They are 8-1 SU on the road, 7-2 ATS.
Brandon Jacobs is running well, the secondary is holding up, while the
defensive line continues to get sacks. New York led the NFL with 53 sacks.
The Giants have covered eight of their last 11 versus NFC competition.
They know the Cowboys well, too, having played them twice.The Cowboys
got hit by injuries late in the season. Pro Bowl center Andre Gurode and
Terrell Owens may not be able to play.Veteran wide receiver Terry Glenn is
back for Dallas after being sidelined nearly the entire season because of
knee trouble.Owens is their main weapon. He suffered a high ankle sprain
against Carolina. Being a quick healer, he may be able to play although
probably not at 100 percent. The Cowboys only have managed four field
goals in six quarters being without Owens.The last time Dallas won a playoff
game was 1996.Yes it has been that long.Tony Romo had an excellent
season, yet remains largely untested in postseason competition.The Giants
have double-revenge going for them.They know they can certainly score on
Dallas at Texas Stadium having put up 35 points and gained 438 yards when
they met the Cowboys opening week on the road. It?s not the easiest thing
beating a quality team three times in a season, but that?s what the Cowboys
are trying to accomplish here.They may be able to do it, but it won?t come
easy. NY GIANTS 28-27.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
BEST BET
SAN DIEGO over *INDIANAPOLIS by 3
Norv! Stormin? Norval! Whose got the momentum now, baby? Who?s comin? into the house
of the Super Bowl Champs, who want, and were watching and waiting for, a re-match from
their ?depleted? loss in San Diego earlier this season? It?s the supercharged, pumped up,
man of passion, the Man Who Would Lead The Chargers to the Super Bowl, the man with all
the experience in big games on the road in the post-season (wink-wink), and Tony Dungy is
shaking! Well, maybe not shaking. Maybe just sweating a little.Well, maybe not sweating at
all. But he?s not smiling, that?s for sure, because Dungy is aware that the Chargers? personnel
gave them fits in a home win three years ago, a home loss two years ago, and that San
Diego is now a more mature and better balanced team, possibly better primed now than they
were in that Sunday night game in Week 10 this season when all the talk was ? and might
still be in an attempt to make a case for the Colts here -- about how the Colts were missing
14 players. But as Norvus the Great told the media last week, ?We didn?t just want to be a
team that handed it to LaDainian on every play.? Hey, it took some time to get away from
that. Tomlinson was held in check last Sunday by Tennessee, yet the Chargers still won and
covered. That?s progress, no matter how ugly it might have looked. Tomlinson got only 76
yards in the first meeting against the Colts this season, yet San Diego won and covered. That
was progress, too, although six picks thrown by Peyton Manning helped the Chargers? cause
that night. Of course, you need a decent rush and a secondary capable of getting picks to
pick Manning, and San Diego, as mentioned last week, got 30 INTs in the regular season so
it wasn?t a total freak of a farce of a fraud, you know? Gotta tell ya ? if the Chargers hadn?t
lost to New England in the first round of the 2006 post-season, this paper would have been
all over the Bolts in a match-up against the Colts, who instead got to hook a tired New
England defense that they were able to come back against. In essence, we?ve been waiting
a year for this match-up to happen, and we?re not gonna let a little injury to TE Antonio Gates
(damn!) mess it up. Hopefully Norv Nation won?t, either. SAN DIEGO, 27-24.
*DALLAS over NY GIANTS by 9
They say that it?s damn near impossible to beat a team three times in one season. Naturally,
?they? ignore the fact that 11 of the 17 prior 2-0 teams since the 1970 merger (65%) went 3-0
with a subsequent playoff win. The Cowboys haven?t beaten the Giants three times this season
yet, but they have beaten New York three straight times, twice at Giants Stadium: 23-20, 45-35,
31-20. So, the Giants scored five touchdowns in one of those losses to Dallas, yet still lost the
game by 10 points. Not a good sign. The one win by New York against the Cowboys since last
season was the landmark game for the Dallas franchise, when then-head coach Bill Parcells
mercifully yanked Drew Bledsoe at halftime of yet another woeful effort at quarterback, and
inserted Tony Romo. The cold Romo threw three quick-picks in an outing where Dallas had to
experience pain if there was to be any gain. There was subsequent gain, and continues to be,
and part of those gains are the three wins noted above against this division rival with the big
pass rush, big running back, and young pup quarterback with a completion percentage 9.5 percentage
points behind Romo?s The Giants looked great last week at Tampa Bay, but we guilty
parties picking the Bucs to win forgot to factor in the Bucs? woefully weak schedule, and the fact
that Jeff Garcia ain?t a post-season quarterback no mo?. Scoreboard situation ? never trailing by
more than one score -- enabled Brandon Jacobs? running to be the factor the Giants want it to
be, and Manning making short throws was effective to maintain possession. But Garcia wasn?t
going to beat them deep. Romo can, Romo has, and if the Cowboys manage to get a two-score
lead, Dallas has a big o-line and a pair of non-fumbling running backs who won?t be giving the
ball back to the Giants? offense as often as the Bucs did. The Giants are 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS on the
road this season, but if they had been playing the Cowboys on the road every Sunday, they might
have been 0-8 SU on the road this season. The Giants made two interceptions and recovered a
fumbled kickoff return in the second half last week, for a +3 TO Ratio. The G-Men were +2 in
TOs the last time they beat Dallas. Since then,?1, +1 and +1 in three straight losses so it looks
like they might need more boo-boos than the Cowboys will provide. DALLAS, 30-21
BEST BET
SAN DIEGO over *INDIANAPOLIS by 3
Norv! Stormin? Norval! Whose got the momentum now, baby? Who?s comin? into the house
of the Super Bowl Champs, who want, and were watching and waiting for, a re-match from
their ?depleted? loss in San Diego earlier this season? It?s the supercharged, pumped up,
man of passion, the Man Who Would Lead The Chargers to the Super Bowl, the man with all
the experience in big games on the road in the post-season (wink-wink), and Tony Dungy is
shaking! Well, maybe not shaking. Maybe just sweating a little.Well, maybe not sweating at
all. But he?s not smiling, that?s for sure, because Dungy is aware that the Chargers? personnel
gave them fits in a home win three years ago, a home loss two years ago, and that San
Diego is now a more mature and better balanced team, possibly better primed now than they
were in that Sunday night game in Week 10 this season when all the talk was ? and might
still be in an attempt to make a case for the Colts here -- about how the Colts were missing
14 players. But as Norvus the Great told the media last week, ?We didn?t just want to be a
team that handed it to LaDainian on every play.? Hey, it took some time to get away from
that. Tomlinson was held in check last Sunday by Tennessee, yet the Chargers still won and
covered. That?s progress, no matter how ugly it might have looked. Tomlinson got only 76
yards in the first meeting against the Colts this season, yet San Diego won and covered. That
was progress, too, although six picks thrown by Peyton Manning helped the Chargers? cause
that night. Of course, you need a decent rush and a secondary capable of getting picks to
pick Manning, and San Diego, as mentioned last week, got 30 INTs in the regular season so
it wasn?t a total freak of a farce of a fraud, you know? Gotta tell ya ? if the Chargers hadn?t
lost to New England in the first round of the 2006 post-season, this paper would have been
all over the Bolts in a match-up against the Colts, who instead got to hook a tired New
England defense that they were able to come back against. In essence, we?ve been waiting
a year for this match-up to happen, and we?re not gonna let a little injury to TE Antonio Gates
(damn!) mess it up. Hopefully Norv Nation won?t, either. SAN DIEGO, 27-24.
*DALLAS over NY GIANTS by 9
They say that it?s damn near impossible to beat a team three times in one season. Naturally,
?they? ignore the fact that 11 of the 17 prior 2-0 teams since the 1970 merger (65%) went 3-0
with a subsequent playoff win. The Cowboys haven?t beaten the Giants three times this season
yet, but they have beaten New York three straight times, twice at Giants Stadium: 23-20, 45-35,
31-20. So, the Giants scored five touchdowns in one of those losses to Dallas, yet still lost the
game by 10 points. Not a good sign. The one win by New York against the Cowboys since last
season was the landmark game for the Dallas franchise, when then-head coach Bill Parcells
mercifully yanked Drew Bledsoe at halftime of yet another woeful effort at quarterback, and
inserted Tony Romo. The cold Romo threw three quick-picks in an outing where Dallas had to
experience pain if there was to be any gain. There was subsequent gain, and continues to be,
and part of those gains are the three wins noted above against this division rival with the big
pass rush, big running back, and young pup quarterback with a completion percentage 9.5 percentage
points behind Romo?s The Giants looked great last week at Tampa Bay, but we guilty
parties picking the Bucs to win forgot to factor in the Bucs? woefully weak schedule, and the fact
that Jeff Garcia ain?t a post-season quarterback no mo?. Scoreboard situation ? never trailing by
more than one score -- enabled Brandon Jacobs? running to be the factor the Giants want it to
be, and Manning making short throws was effective to maintain possession. But Garcia wasn?t
going to beat them deep. Romo can, Romo has, and if the Cowboys manage to get a two-score
lead, Dallas has a big o-line and a pair of non-fumbling running backs who won?t be giving the
ball back to the Giants? offense as often as the Bucs did. The Giants are 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS on the
road this season, but if they had been playing the Cowboys on the road every Sunday, they might
have been 0-8 SU on the road this season. The Giants made two interceptions and recovered a
fumbled kickoff return in the second half last week, for a +3 TO Ratio. The G-Men were +2 in
TOs the last time they beat Dallas. Since then,?1, +1 and +1 in three straight losses so it looks
like they might need more boo-boos than the Cowboys will provide. DALLAS, 30-21
THE MAX
Chargers @ Colts
January 13th, 2007, 1:00PM EST
Line: Colts ?8?, 46?
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts have played
second fiddle to the New England Patriots all season,
quietly putting together a 13-3 season despite numerous
injuries and the proverbial ?bull?s eye? on their backs.
Many starters sat out or rested a large portion of the
season finale against Tennessee two weeks ago, and with
the way the schedules fell for both teams down the
stretch, Indy knew they were most likely playing the
Chargers or Titans. Not only do they play the Titans twice
a year, and are familiar with everything they do, but the
current form of both possible opponents definitely pointed
to a probable San Diego showdown. Definitely think the
Colts could afford to gamble and put extra preparation
time into the Chargers team that has beaten them two in a
row. The football minds of Peyton Manning and Tony
Dungy have now been focused on this game for 3 weeks,
and that should lead to a sharp performance.
San Diego ruined Indy?s perfect season in Game 14 of
2005, and of course beat the Colts back in November of
this season. Manning threw a combined 8 interceptions in
those two games, and has looked uncomfortable against
the pressure of the Chargers 3-4 defense (4 sacks in ?05
meeting, and 2 sacks and constant hurries in this year?s
matchup). I expect Manning to make the proper
adjustments behind a healthier offensive line than in the
first meeting, and he now has Marvin Harrison, Anthony
Gonzalez (3 games of 85 or more yards in the last 5), and
Dallas Clark, all who missed the first clash, back in the
lineup. The Colts really came out flat in that game, as they
lost the ?battle of undefeateds? against New England the
week before, and lost to the Chargers by 2 despite
allowing only 177 yards of offense, as Darren Sproles
scored on both punt and kick returns in the first quarter.
Special teams have been a weakness all season for Indy,
and the extra preparation time should help there. If Dungy
doesn?t like what he sees in practice, he won?t risk losing a
playoff game in the manner he did the first meeting, and I
wouldn?t be surprised if he pooches or kicks away from
Sproles, and lets the league?s best yards per play defense
(4.7) do the work here.
All told, Indy holds a huge 1.0 net yard per play advantage
in this one. San Diego has regressed by 49 yards per
game offensively and 18 ypg defensively this season.
They have made up for that regression with a whopping
+24 in the turnover department. The potential loss or
limitedness of Antonio Gates due to his toe injury would
really hurt the Chargers here, and the weak schedule they
played down the stretch masks the fact that lead blocker
Lorenzo Neal is missed in the running game as LaDainian
Tomlinson ran for 15 yards on his first 15 carries against
Tennessee last week. The fresher team, along with huge
edges in coaching and QB play round out our advantages
and there is a very good chance this is the last game in the
RCA Dome where Indy is 11-5 ATS home chalk the last two
seasons. Expect a big performance by the superior team.
Colts by 14
Giants @ Cowboys
January 13th, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Line: Cowboys ?7?, 47
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Impressive performance by the Giants on Sunday.
None of the three players hurt in their win over New
England were healthy (Kawika Mitchell played only
after an injury to another linebacker), their starters
hadn?t had a break, they were down 7-0 and had
earned zero first downs in the first quarter, yet they
came back to win going easily. The Giants entered
the game only 1-5 against teams that concluded the
season winning records, yet they withstood the early
storm to beat the Bucs. Eli Manning has played very
well the past three weeks, going 49--74 for 547 and
6 TDs with 3 interceptions.
The Giants have now won 8 straight road games,
but they have had a world of trouble slowing down
Tony Romo. The Cowboys QB has lit up the Giants
this season. In the two wins over New York, Romo
has gone 35-52 for 592 yards for 8 TD?s and 2
interceptions. The most impressive number inside
of that is averaging 11 yards every time he?s
dropped back to pass. Romo better play well here,
because the media in Dallas is abuzz with his minivacation
with Jessica Simpson and her family.
Cowboys fans aren?t thrilled with that distraction and
would have preferred constant film-watching over
the weekend.
The Cowboys haven?t played well since dismantling
the Packers in that spotlight Thursday night game
on November 29th. They haven?t covered a game
and outgained only Carolina in going 2-2 straight up
to conclude the season. And they can?t just write off
the loss in Washington, as they played starters in
the first half and had every intention to get off to a
good start early in that game, yet did nothing of the
sort. But they had everything wrapped up and it is
tough to maintain focus in such a situation.
We?re going to trust the Cowboys to get back into
the swing offensively with the expected return of
Terrell Owens this week (he?s slated to practice by
Thursday), which is priced into this line. Teams that
are familiar with each other tend to have low scoring
matchups, but that hasn?t been the case this year
between these divisional rivals, as the Cowboys have
won both games. They won their opener at home
45-35 in a game featuring 911 yards of total offense
before winning up at the Meadowlands 31-20 in a
game that saw them win yardage only 323-300.
That yardage seems low but the Cowboys were
trying to run clock late and the teams combined for
7 scoring drives of 60 yards or more. We lean
toward the Cowboys a little but have been out of
step in trying to fade the Giants over the second half
of the season. So our judgment on the New Yorkers
isn?t impressive. This appears to be a game that will
have some scoring, Look to the over.
Chargers @ Colts
January 13th, 2007, 1:00PM EST
Line: Colts ?8?, 46?
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts have played
second fiddle to the New England Patriots all season,
quietly putting together a 13-3 season despite numerous
injuries and the proverbial ?bull?s eye? on their backs.
Many starters sat out or rested a large portion of the
season finale against Tennessee two weeks ago, and with
the way the schedules fell for both teams down the
stretch, Indy knew they were most likely playing the
Chargers or Titans. Not only do they play the Titans twice
a year, and are familiar with everything they do, but the
current form of both possible opponents definitely pointed
to a probable San Diego showdown. Definitely think the
Colts could afford to gamble and put extra preparation
time into the Chargers team that has beaten them two in a
row. The football minds of Peyton Manning and Tony
Dungy have now been focused on this game for 3 weeks,
and that should lead to a sharp performance.
San Diego ruined Indy?s perfect season in Game 14 of
2005, and of course beat the Colts back in November of
this season. Manning threw a combined 8 interceptions in
those two games, and has looked uncomfortable against
the pressure of the Chargers 3-4 defense (4 sacks in ?05
meeting, and 2 sacks and constant hurries in this year?s
matchup). I expect Manning to make the proper
adjustments behind a healthier offensive line than in the
first meeting, and he now has Marvin Harrison, Anthony
Gonzalez (3 games of 85 or more yards in the last 5), and
Dallas Clark, all who missed the first clash, back in the
lineup. The Colts really came out flat in that game, as they
lost the ?battle of undefeateds? against New England the
week before, and lost to the Chargers by 2 despite
allowing only 177 yards of offense, as Darren Sproles
scored on both punt and kick returns in the first quarter.
Special teams have been a weakness all season for Indy,
and the extra preparation time should help there. If Dungy
doesn?t like what he sees in practice, he won?t risk losing a
playoff game in the manner he did the first meeting, and I
wouldn?t be surprised if he pooches or kicks away from
Sproles, and lets the league?s best yards per play defense
(4.7) do the work here.
All told, Indy holds a huge 1.0 net yard per play advantage
in this one. San Diego has regressed by 49 yards per
game offensively and 18 ypg defensively this season.
They have made up for that regression with a whopping
+24 in the turnover department. The potential loss or
limitedness of Antonio Gates due to his toe injury would
really hurt the Chargers here, and the weak schedule they
played down the stretch masks the fact that lead blocker
Lorenzo Neal is missed in the running game as LaDainian
Tomlinson ran for 15 yards on his first 15 carries against
Tennessee last week. The fresher team, along with huge
edges in coaching and QB play round out our advantages
and there is a very good chance this is the last game in the
RCA Dome where Indy is 11-5 ATS home chalk the last two
seasons. Expect a big performance by the superior team.
Colts by 14
Giants @ Cowboys
January 13th, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Line: Cowboys ?7?, 47
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
Impressive performance by the Giants on Sunday.
None of the three players hurt in their win over New
England were healthy (Kawika Mitchell played only
after an injury to another linebacker), their starters
hadn?t had a break, they were down 7-0 and had
earned zero first downs in the first quarter, yet they
came back to win going easily. The Giants entered
the game only 1-5 against teams that concluded the
season winning records, yet they withstood the early
storm to beat the Bucs. Eli Manning has played very
well the past three weeks, going 49--74 for 547 and
6 TDs with 3 interceptions.
The Giants have now won 8 straight road games,
but they have had a world of trouble slowing down
Tony Romo. The Cowboys QB has lit up the Giants
this season. In the two wins over New York, Romo
has gone 35-52 for 592 yards for 8 TD?s and 2
interceptions. The most impressive number inside
of that is averaging 11 yards every time he?s
dropped back to pass. Romo better play well here,
because the media in Dallas is abuzz with his minivacation
with Jessica Simpson and her family.
Cowboys fans aren?t thrilled with that distraction and
would have preferred constant film-watching over
the weekend.
The Cowboys haven?t played well since dismantling
the Packers in that spotlight Thursday night game
on November 29th. They haven?t covered a game
and outgained only Carolina in going 2-2 straight up
to conclude the season. And they can?t just write off
the loss in Washington, as they played starters in
the first half and had every intention to get off to a
good start early in that game, yet did nothing of the
sort. But they had everything wrapped up and it is
tough to maintain focus in such a situation.
We?re going to trust the Cowboys to get back into
the swing offensively with the expected return of
Terrell Owens this week (he?s slated to practice by
Thursday), which is priced into this line. Teams that
are familiar with each other tend to have low scoring
matchups, but that hasn?t been the case this year
between these divisional rivals, as the Cowboys have
won both games. They won their opener at home
45-35 in a game featuring 911 yards of total offense
before winning up at the Meadowlands 31-20 in a
game that saw them win yardage only 323-300.
That yardage seems low but the Cowboys were
trying to run clock late and the teams combined for
7 scoring drives of 60 yards or more. We lean
toward the Cowboys a little but have been out of
step in trying to fade the Giants over the second half
of the season. So our judgment on the New Yorkers
isn?t impressive. This appears to be a game that will
have some scoring, Look to the over.
POINTWISE
SAN DIEGO (12-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS BY 8? -- O/U: 46?
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
San Diego ... 45.2 . 25- 17 .. 17-18 .. 124-108 .. 193- 208 .. +25 . Indianapolis
Indianapolis 45.7 . 28- 16 .. 22-16 .. 107-107 .. 252- 173 .. +18 . by 8.2 Pts
Red-hot Chargers have covered 7 straight, by 67 pts, but by mere ? pt LW. But,
as we stated a week ago, they are hardly overpowering, ranking 14th or
worse in 5-of-6 major yardage categories. Rivers: just 22/16 for the year;
Tomlinson: 2.0 ypr vs Tennessee; & Gates: toe injury. Two months ago,
SanDiego caught Indy off its grueling loss to the Pats, winning 23-21, with
Vinatieri missing a 29-yd FG in the final 2 minutes, & Manning throwing a
franchise record 6 interceptions! The Colts are 18-2 SU in meaningful
games lately, & 13-4 ATS vs non-division. SU winner 17-0 ATS in SD tilts.
PROPHECY: INDIANAPOLIS 33 - San Diego 17 RATING: 2
NEW YORK GIANTS (11-6) at DALLAS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 4:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: DALLAS BY 7? -- O/U: 47
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
NY Giants ... 46.3 . 23- 21 .. 20-21 .. 132- 96 .. 196- 207 ... - 6 . Dallas
Dallas .......... 45.6 . 28- 20 .. 20-19 .. 109- 95 .. 257- 213 .. + 5 . by 8.0 Pts
These 2 division rivals meet for the umpteenth time, but this is their first-ever
meeting in a playoff setting. The Giants have been superb of late, winning 11 of
their last 15 games, but more importantly are on franchise-record run of 8 straight
road wins, allowing only 13.4 ppg in their last 7 RGs. Their 24 unanswered pts at
Tampa opened many an eye, as the Bucs were a superb home play. The 'Boys are
13-2 SU in meaningful games lately, with Romo at 36/19. And Owens (15 TDs in
15 games) is expected to play (ankle). But Dallas is just 5-7 ATS lately, & certainly
not as impressive as in the early going. Third win of the year over NY, but by a hair.
PROPHECY: Dallas 24 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 4
SAN DIEGO (12-5) at INDIANAPOLIS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS BY 8? -- O/U: 46?
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
San Diego ... 45.2 . 25- 17 .. 17-18 .. 124-108 .. 193- 208 .. +25 . Indianapolis
Indianapolis 45.7 . 28- 16 .. 22-16 .. 107-107 .. 252- 173 .. +18 . by 8.2 Pts
Red-hot Chargers have covered 7 straight, by 67 pts, but by mere ? pt LW. But,
as we stated a week ago, they are hardly overpowering, ranking 14th or
worse in 5-of-6 major yardage categories. Rivers: just 22/16 for the year;
Tomlinson: 2.0 ypr vs Tennessee; & Gates: toe injury. Two months ago,
SanDiego caught Indy off its grueling loss to the Pats, winning 23-21, with
Vinatieri missing a 29-yd FG in the final 2 minutes, & Manning throwing a
franchise record 6 interceptions! The Colts are 18-2 SU in meaningful
games lately, & 13-4 ATS vs non-division. SU winner 17-0 ATS in SD tilts.
PROPHECY: INDIANAPOLIS 33 - San Diego 17 RATING: 2
NEW YORK GIANTS (11-6) at DALLAS (13-3)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 13 -- 4:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: DALLAS BY 7? -- O/U: 47
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
NY Giants ... 46.3 . 23- 21 .. 20-21 .. 132- 96 .. 196- 207 ... - 6 . Dallas
Dallas .......... 45.6 . 28- 20 .. 20-19 .. 109- 95 .. 257- 213 .. + 5 . by 8.0 Pts
These 2 division rivals meet for the umpteenth time, but this is their first-ever
meeting in a playoff setting. The Giants have been superb of late, winning 11 of
their last 15 games, but more importantly are on franchise-record run of 8 straight
road wins, allowing only 13.4 ppg in their last 7 RGs. Their 24 unanswered pts at
Tampa opened many an eye, as the Bucs were a superb home play. The 'Boys are
13-2 SU in meaningful games lately, with Romo at 36/19. And Owens (15 TDs in
15 games) is expected to play (ankle). But Dallas is just 5-7 ATS lately, & certainly
not as impressive as in the early going. Third win of the year over NY, but by a hair.
PROPHECY: Dallas 24 - NEW YORK GIANTS 23 RATING: 4
THE SPORTS MEMO
New York +7.5 at Dallas O/U 47
Recommendation: New York
In perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the weekend these very familiar
divisional rivals square off for a spot in the NFC Championship game.
The Cowboys made easy work of their schedule as Tony Romo guided
a brilliant offense that featured two strong running backs (Jones and
Barber) the NFC?s best WR (Owens) and maybe the best TE in football
(Witten). Their massive offensive line took over late in games and the
Cowboys, despite having the NFC?s highest scoring offense at 28.5 ppg
could play ball control when needed. The defense has looked somewhat
suspect, particularly in the secondary, but a good pass rush has masked
those issues at times this season. Big D looked almost untouchable early
in the year while covering in seven of their first nine games including two
double digit wins over this same Giants team (8-1 SU). But they stumbled
toward the end of the year losing four straight against the number and
are banged up with both Romo and TO missing practice time. The Giants
overcame a devastating collapse against New England and a terrible
first quarter in which they failed to gain a single net yard of offense to
post an impressive win in Tampa in the Wild Card round. They are playing
their best football of the season at just the right time. Eli Manning
has been rock solid, the running game has had contributions from Jacobs
and Bradshaw, the offensive line has protected, the receivers finally held
on to the ball and the pass rush from speed-ends like Strahan, Tuck and
company has been phenomenal. We still don?t trust Eli or coach Coughlin
completely here in the playoffs but their strong road record (now 8-1 ATS)
cannot be ignored. They will likely lose again but we?ll call for this one to
be closer the third time around. Take the touchdown-plus with the Giants.
San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Indianapolis
The Chargers are feeling great heading into Indy this week, and why not?
They finally won a home playoff game despite losing Antonio Gates during
the first half, they blanked the Titans in the second half outgaining
them by nearly 200 yards, and they have now won seven straight both
straight up and against the number. The defense, which finished first in
the league in takeaways has been flying to the ball and pressuring QBs
into bad decisions, allowing no more than 17 points during this stretch
run. And who can forget the performance they had right before this seven
game run when they picked off Peyton Manning six times? Not this
confident bunch from the West Coast, not the Colts, and certainly not
Peyton Manning. Indy will be out for redemption after blowing a chance
to win that game despite the turnovers and this will be the perfect spot.
For as much as they struggled early in that game the offense and defense
easily outplayed the Chargers. In fact, San Diego was outgained by
over 200 yards and scored just 10 points offensively despite good field
position nearly all game. Aside from two kick return TDs from Darren
Sproles the Chargers rarely looked like a threat to score. And it wasn?t
some fluke, no, the Colts finished with the NFL?s number one ranked
scoring defense at just 16.4 points per game. We?ll side with the reigning
Super Bowl Champs at home with a bit of a revenge factor against a team
that has struggled on the road this year and whose offense has been
spotty at best. Chargers simply can?t keep pace this week, take Indy.
New York +7.5 at Dallas O/U 47
Recommendation: New York
In perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the weekend these very familiar
divisional rivals square off for a spot in the NFC Championship game.
The Cowboys made easy work of their schedule as Tony Romo guided
a brilliant offense that featured two strong running backs (Jones and
Barber) the NFC?s best WR (Owens) and maybe the best TE in football
(Witten). Their massive offensive line took over late in games and the
Cowboys, despite having the NFC?s highest scoring offense at 28.5 ppg
could play ball control when needed. The defense has looked somewhat
suspect, particularly in the secondary, but a good pass rush has masked
those issues at times this season. Big D looked almost untouchable early
in the year while covering in seven of their first nine games including two
double digit wins over this same Giants team (8-1 SU). But they stumbled
toward the end of the year losing four straight against the number and
are banged up with both Romo and TO missing practice time. The Giants
overcame a devastating collapse against New England and a terrible
first quarter in which they failed to gain a single net yard of offense to
post an impressive win in Tampa in the Wild Card round. They are playing
their best football of the season at just the right time. Eli Manning
has been rock solid, the running game has had contributions from Jacobs
and Bradshaw, the offensive line has protected, the receivers finally held
on to the ball and the pass rush from speed-ends like Strahan, Tuck and
company has been phenomenal. We still don?t trust Eli or coach Coughlin
completely here in the playoffs but their strong road record (now 8-1 ATS)
cannot be ignored. They will likely lose again but we?ll call for this one to
be closer the third time around. Take the touchdown-plus with the Giants.
San Diego at Indianapolis -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: Indianapolis
The Chargers are feeling great heading into Indy this week, and why not?
They finally won a home playoff game despite losing Antonio Gates during
the first half, they blanked the Titans in the second half outgaining
them by nearly 200 yards, and they have now won seven straight both
straight up and against the number. The defense, which finished first in
the league in takeaways has been flying to the ball and pressuring QBs
into bad decisions, allowing no more than 17 points during this stretch
run. And who can forget the performance they had right before this seven
game run when they picked off Peyton Manning six times? Not this
confident bunch from the West Coast, not the Colts, and certainly not
Peyton Manning. Indy will be out for redemption after blowing a chance
to win that game despite the turnovers and this will be the perfect spot.
For as much as they struggled early in that game the offense and defense
easily outplayed the Chargers. In fact, San Diego was outgained by
over 200 yards and scored just 10 points offensively despite good field
position nearly all game. Aside from two kick return TDs from Darren
Sproles the Chargers rarely looked like a threat to score. And it wasn?t
some fluke, no, the Colts finished with the NFL?s number one ranked
scoring defense at just 16.4 points per game. We?ll side with the reigning
Super Bowl Champs at home with a bit of a revenge factor against a team
that has struggled on the road this year and whose offense has been
spotty at best. Chargers simply can?t keep pace this week, take Indy.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS
The Chargers escaped with a win vs IND in the prior meeting 23-20 as a 3.5 pt HD. Manning had one
of the worst games ever as he tossed a career high 5 int on a soggy SNF game. He managed to rally IND
from a 23-7 4Q deficit with a 7 yd TD pass to make it 23-15. Rivers had a ball slip out of his hands & IND
recovered & ret it for a TD (2 pt ng). IND drove to the SD 11 with 94 sec left only to see Vinatieri miss a 29
yd FG. IND forced SD to go 3 & out but Manning was int?d on the final play. Rivers only passed for 104 yds
(54%) with 2 ints while Tomlinson was held to 76 yds rushing (3.6). IND is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a
349-322 yd edge & 27-18 avg score. SD is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road being outgained 346-324 with an avg
score of 24-22. IND is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs teams with a winning record with an avg score of 23-20 (no SD).
SD is 2-3 SU & ATS vs teams with a winning record being outscored 23-19 (no IND). Their are 8 common
foes with IND going 9-2 SU & 5-6 ATS with a 340-299 yd edge (+16 TO?s) with a 27-18 avg score. SD went
9-3 SU & ATS with a 329-294 yd edge (+15 TO?s) & 25-16 avg score. IND has 5 Pro Bowlers with 4 on off
& Bob Sanders on def. SD has 4 on off, 3 on def & a ST representative. Dungy is 6-2 ATS as a playoff fav
while Turner is just 1-1 ATS as a playoff HC but has experience as an assistant.
By the time Norv Turner took over SD had to replace their top 5 coaches from LY. SD struggled the 1st 8
games going 4-4 SU & ATS with a humiliating loss to MIN. Thru the 1st 8 games SD was outgained by an avg of
355-308 (+8 TO?s) with an avg score of 24-21. After the IND game SD regrouped & put the onus on Tomlinson &
SD posted a 342-271 yd edge (+13 TO?s) with an avg score of 29-14. SD has outrushed foes 149 (4.4) to 91 (3.6)
over that span as well. TE Gates (check status) remains the top target for Rivers though trading for WR Chambers
from MIA gives them a proven #1 WR & Tomlinson is still a reliable weapon out of the backfield. SD?s OL doesn?t
have the continuity of LY?s unit as Ctr Hardwick missed 4 games & Turner tinkered with the RT spot but they have
started the L5 games together & Rivers has been sacked 22 times. SD released 2 starting LB?s in the offseason
but was able to rely on one of the best 3-4 DL?s in the NFL headed up by NT Jamal Williams. Minus the MIN game
SD only allowed 90 ypg (3.6) on the year with six 100 yd games (127 ypg 4.0 in those). The OLB tandem of Phillips
& Merriman combined for 20 of the 42 sk & ILB?s Cooper & Wilhelm do a decent job in the middle. SD?s #5 pass
rush is a huge weapon for their secondary which is better than their #13 pass D ranking as they lead the NFL with
30 int. #3 CB Cromartie has 10 int on the year & CB Jammer has developed into a shutdown CB. SD has our #3
ST unit with P Scifres having a 39.6 net avg & SD is 5th in KR coverage (20.9) & 6th in KR (25.5).
Despite his 8th 4000 yd season in 9 years Peyton Manning has had a bit of a down season as he has struggled
with Marvin Harrision (swollen knee) out for 10 games. Manning had his 1st season with more than 10 ints in 5 years
but IND finished with the #5 off. With Harrison out, Reggie Wayne had a career year finishing 3rd in rec?s & 1st in rec
yards in the NFL. Manning?s relied on Wayne so much that the combo of Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai & Anthony Gonzalez
combined only had 32 more rec & 46 more yards. While Joseph Addai became the 3rd Colts RB to start his career with
B2B 1000 yd rushing seasons he only has four 100 yd rushing games & has avg?d 46 ypg rushing (3.2) over the final 8.
IND OL has only started 69 games together as RT Diem has missed 6 with a knee inj & LT Ugoh has sat out 5 games
with neck & ankle inj?s. IND has all?d 23 sacks TY (7th) & has the #1 & #30 units on 3rd Dn as well as the #10 & #21
red-zone units. The Colts used to be all offense with no defense until Dungy finally got the players he needed to make
his Tampa-2 defense run. They finished 3rd in the NFL on total defense as they survived the loss of DE Dwight Freeney
thanks to Bob Sanders who at 5?8? 204 is used as an extra LB but he has the speed of a CB & is extremely smooth
in coverage. He has been instrumental in the development of CB?S Kelvin Hayden & Marlin Jackson allowing Antoine
Bethea to be the single high safety. MLB Gary Brackett is the only LB to start all 16 games & Freddie Keiaho has done
a good job replacing June despite missing 5 games with an elbow inj. The DL took a major blow when Freeney landed
on IR & IND has all?d nine 100+ yd rushing games (137 ypg 4.3). Despite the lack of a pass rush (26th) IND has the
#4 pass D over the L8W all?ng 171 ypg (65%) with a 9-11 ratio. The Colts special teams are a major concern as they
have our #32 unit all?g 13.9 on PR?s & 25.0 on KR?s with 4 returns for TD?s combined.
The Chargers rebounded after a flat 1H to advance & Rivers makes his 2nd ever dome start (1st vs
MIN TY) in possibly the final game at the RCA Dome. SD has struggled on the road with a 1-3 SU record vs
playoff teams with the win vs TEN in OT. Tomlinson avg?s 21 ypg (1.1) less on the road TY vs at home with
half the rushing TD?s (5). The Colts went to San Diego and held the Chargers to 91 yards rushing and they
kept 4 of their next 8 foes from 100 yds rushing with a 3.5 ypc. The Chargers reached their goal of a playoff
win & now face a defending SB champ with an early morning kickoff. FORECAST: COLTS 34 Chargers 14 RATING: 2★
Dallas won & covered both games vs the Giants TY with a 45-35 shootout in the opener as a 6 pt HF
& 31-20 as a 1.5 pt AF. Despite both losses Manning played well avg 274 ypg (68%) with a 5-3 ratio (94.8
QBR). Romo was outstanding avg 296 yds (67%) with an 8-2 ratio (129.2 QBR) & a ypa of 11.4. DAL is
6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home TY with the #4 & #11 units at home (-1 TO?s). The Giants are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS
on the road TY. LW after going 3 & out on their 1st 3 drives they outgained the Bucs 275-195 & converted
3 TB TO?s into 7 points. Against their 10 common foes DAL went 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS (minus finale as DAL
rested) with a 363-312 yd edge (+4 TO?s) & a 29-20 avg score. NY went 8-4 SU & ATS with a 316-295 yd
edge (-10 TO?s) & a 21.2-21 avg score. The Giants only have one Pro Bowl player in Umenyiora while DAL
has a whopping 11 PB?s. Coughlin is now 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS in the playoffs while Phillips is 0-3 SU & ATS.
The Giants playoff push was spearheaded by their #8 D which is fortified by a #1 pass rush headed by
a 3 DE rotation of Umenyiora, Strahan & Tuck. The pass rush has masked some issues in the back 7 with
the loss of DE/OLB Kiwanuka & MLB Pierce playing hurt all yr & starting rookie CB Ross. WLB Mitchell was
rested vs NE & his status is unknown. While the Giants are all?g 96 ypg rushing (3.8), they have 9 gms with
100+ yds rushing all?d for 124 ypg (4.6) avg in those. With the loss of RB Barber even more pressure fell on
Eli Manning who started the season passing for 218 ypg (60%) with a 13-9 ratio in the 1st 7 games. Skipping
the MIA game Manning had passed for 214 ypg (52%) with a 6-10 ratio (62.2 QBR) before his impressive
game of 251 yds (69%) with a 4-1 ratio vs NE. He had been limited by poor weather conditions, Burress? bad
ankle, a shaky RB rotation with Jacobs (knee sprain & hamstring) missing 5 games & the loss of TE Shockey
(broken leg). WR Toomer rebounded from LY?s torn ACL to be the #3 receiver & the OL has done a decent
job of protecting him with 29 sacks all?d (12th) & has started all 17 games. However, Ctr O?Hara sustained
a knee injury vs NE & his status is ?. Jacobs has five 100 yd rushing games as a power runner & the team
avg?s 134 ypg rushing (4.5) which is 1 yd & 0.1 ypc less than LY?s numbers with Barber. The Giants have our
#23 spec teams unit as their return units are avg at best with 8.7 PR & 20.1 KR avg?s.
Bill Parcells built this version of the Cowboys but Wade Phillips has managed to get the most out of it &
thanks to OC Garrett the most out of Tony Romo. Romo heads up the #4 passing off & broke several team
records incl passing yards, comp % & TD?s. He finished the year 2nd in passing TD?s & ypa to Brady with
the highest QBR for an NFC QB. He has a great chemstry with Terrell Owens who is 5th in rec yards & 4th
in ypc but will be a gametime decision (ankle). The top receiver for the Cowboys is TE Witten who is 10th
in the NFL & 2nd only to Tony Gonzalez in rec?s. DAL anticipates having Terry Glenn back for this game but
he?ll be limited in snaps & Patrick Crayton has done a good job as the #3 receiving option. DAL is only 17th
in rush & the clear cut #1 RB here is Marion Barber who?s 21st in rushing & 12th in ypc. Julius Jones is now
the 3rd Dn back & the 2 combined have three 100 yd rushing games. LY the DAL OL all?d 37 sacks & they
improved to 25 TY with the same starters for the 1st 14 games until Ctr Gurode missed the L2 with a knee
inj. DAL is 2nd & 27th on 3rd Dns with the #15 & #10 red-zone units. Under Parcells LY DAL finished with the
#13 D but the players didn?t quite fit the scheme. DAL improved to 9th on def & 3rd in sacks (46) vs 19th LY
as Phillips is more aggressive. Not counting the season finale DAL has all?d six 100 yd rushing games (129
ypg, 5.0) with 68 ypg (3.2) in the others. The strength of the Cowboys def is its LB corps with Greg Ellis who
had a great year after tearing his Achillies LY & DeMarcus Ware combining for 26.5 sacks & Bradie James
& Akin Ayodele being the ILB?s. DAL has the #14 pass defense & is all?g 237 ypg (57%) with a 13-6 ratio at
home. Both Terence Newman & FS Ken Hamlin made the Pro Bowl while Anthony Henry led the team with
6 int but Roy Williams can still be burned for big plays in the passing game. DAL has our #15 special teams
unit as they are below avg in coverage units (11.6 PR & 23.0 KR) & are 19th in KR?s with a 22.3 avg.
The Giants have now won 8 straight on the road since an opening week loss at DAL. Their defense gets
the credit for the win streak allowing 14 ppg in that span. DAL has dropped 4 straight ATS & in their 2 SU
losses only scored 6 pts in each. DAL did rest players vs WAS but an offensive team needs 1.5 quarters to
get its timing back. While both games went Over the total this meeting gives an edge to the DC?s as they?ll
be familiar with the opposing QB?s. The early forecast calls for rain & wind which adds to Under call here.
FORECAST: UNDER 48 RATING: 2★
The Chargers escaped with a win vs IND in the prior meeting 23-20 as a 3.5 pt HD. Manning had one
of the worst games ever as he tossed a career high 5 int on a soggy SNF game. He managed to rally IND
from a 23-7 4Q deficit with a 7 yd TD pass to make it 23-15. Rivers had a ball slip out of his hands & IND
recovered & ret it for a TD (2 pt ng). IND drove to the SD 11 with 94 sec left only to see Vinatieri miss a 29
yd FG. IND forced SD to go 3 & out but Manning was int?d on the final play. Rivers only passed for 104 yds
(54%) with 2 ints while Tomlinson was held to 76 yds rushing (3.6). IND is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home with a
349-322 yd edge & 27-18 avg score. SD is 4-4 SU & ATS on the road being outgained 346-324 with an avg
score of 24-22. IND is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS vs teams with a winning record with an avg score of 23-20 (no SD).
SD is 2-3 SU & ATS vs teams with a winning record being outscored 23-19 (no IND). Their are 8 common
foes with IND going 9-2 SU & 5-6 ATS with a 340-299 yd edge (+16 TO?s) with a 27-18 avg score. SD went
9-3 SU & ATS with a 329-294 yd edge (+15 TO?s) & 25-16 avg score. IND has 5 Pro Bowlers with 4 on off
& Bob Sanders on def. SD has 4 on off, 3 on def & a ST representative. Dungy is 6-2 ATS as a playoff fav
while Turner is just 1-1 ATS as a playoff HC but has experience as an assistant.
By the time Norv Turner took over SD had to replace their top 5 coaches from LY. SD struggled the 1st 8
games going 4-4 SU & ATS with a humiliating loss to MIN. Thru the 1st 8 games SD was outgained by an avg of
355-308 (+8 TO?s) with an avg score of 24-21. After the IND game SD regrouped & put the onus on Tomlinson &
SD posted a 342-271 yd edge (+13 TO?s) with an avg score of 29-14. SD has outrushed foes 149 (4.4) to 91 (3.6)
over that span as well. TE Gates (check status) remains the top target for Rivers though trading for WR Chambers
from MIA gives them a proven #1 WR & Tomlinson is still a reliable weapon out of the backfield. SD?s OL doesn?t
have the continuity of LY?s unit as Ctr Hardwick missed 4 games & Turner tinkered with the RT spot but they have
started the L5 games together & Rivers has been sacked 22 times. SD released 2 starting LB?s in the offseason
but was able to rely on one of the best 3-4 DL?s in the NFL headed up by NT Jamal Williams. Minus the MIN game
SD only allowed 90 ypg (3.6) on the year with six 100 yd games (127 ypg 4.0 in those). The OLB tandem of Phillips
& Merriman combined for 20 of the 42 sk & ILB?s Cooper & Wilhelm do a decent job in the middle. SD?s #5 pass
rush is a huge weapon for their secondary which is better than their #13 pass D ranking as they lead the NFL with
30 int. #3 CB Cromartie has 10 int on the year & CB Jammer has developed into a shutdown CB. SD has our #3
ST unit with P Scifres having a 39.6 net avg & SD is 5th in KR coverage (20.9) & 6th in KR (25.5).
Despite his 8th 4000 yd season in 9 years Peyton Manning has had a bit of a down season as he has struggled
with Marvin Harrision (swollen knee) out for 10 games. Manning had his 1st season with more than 10 ints in 5 years
but IND finished with the #5 off. With Harrison out, Reggie Wayne had a career year finishing 3rd in rec?s & 1st in rec
yards in the NFL. Manning?s relied on Wayne so much that the combo of Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai & Anthony Gonzalez
combined only had 32 more rec & 46 more yards. While Joseph Addai became the 3rd Colts RB to start his career with
B2B 1000 yd rushing seasons he only has four 100 yd rushing games & has avg?d 46 ypg rushing (3.2) over the final 8.
IND OL has only started 69 games together as RT Diem has missed 6 with a knee inj & LT Ugoh has sat out 5 games
with neck & ankle inj?s. IND has all?d 23 sacks TY (7th) & has the #1 & #30 units on 3rd Dn as well as the #10 & #21
red-zone units. The Colts used to be all offense with no defense until Dungy finally got the players he needed to make
his Tampa-2 defense run. They finished 3rd in the NFL on total defense as they survived the loss of DE Dwight Freeney
thanks to Bob Sanders who at 5?8? 204 is used as an extra LB but he has the speed of a CB & is extremely smooth
in coverage. He has been instrumental in the development of CB?S Kelvin Hayden & Marlin Jackson allowing Antoine
Bethea to be the single high safety. MLB Gary Brackett is the only LB to start all 16 games & Freddie Keiaho has done
a good job replacing June despite missing 5 games with an elbow inj. The DL took a major blow when Freeney landed
on IR & IND has all?d nine 100+ yd rushing games (137 ypg 4.3). Despite the lack of a pass rush (26th) IND has the
#4 pass D over the L8W all?ng 171 ypg (65%) with a 9-11 ratio. The Colts special teams are a major concern as they
have our #32 unit all?g 13.9 on PR?s & 25.0 on KR?s with 4 returns for TD?s combined.
The Chargers rebounded after a flat 1H to advance & Rivers makes his 2nd ever dome start (1st vs
MIN TY) in possibly the final game at the RCA Dome. SD has struggled on the road with a 1-3 SU record vs
playoff teams with the win vs TEN in OT. Tomlinson avg?s 21 ypg (1.1) less on the road TY vs at home with
half the rushing TD?s (5). The Colts went to San Diego and held the Chargers to 91 yards rushing and they
kept 4 of their next 8 foes from 100 yds rushing with a 3.5 ypc. The Chargers reached their goal of a playoff
win & now face a defending SB champ with an early morning kickoff. FORECAST: COLTS 34 Chargers 14 RATING: 2★
Dallas won & covered both games vs the Giants TY with a 45-35 shootout in the opener as a 6 pt HF
& 31-20 as a 1.5 pt AF. Despite both losses Manning played well avg 274 ypg (68%) with a 5-3 ratio (94.8
QBR). Romo was outstanding avg 296 yds (67%) with an 8-2 ratio (129.2 QBR) & a ypa of 11.4. DAL is
6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at home TY with the #4 & #11 units at home (-1 TO?s). The Giants are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS
on the road TY. LW after going 3 & out on their 1st 3 drives they outgained the Bucs 275-195 & converted
3 TB TO?s into 7 points. Against their 10 common foes DAL went 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS (minus finale as DAL
rested) with a 363-312 yd edge (+4 TO?s) & a 29-20 avg score. NY went 8-4 SU & ATS with a 316-295 yd
edge (-10 TO?s) & a 21.2-21 avg score. The Giants only have one Pro Bowl player in Umenyiora while DAL
has a whopping 11 PB?s. Coughlin is now 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS in the playoffs while Phillips is 0-3 SU & ATS.
The Giants playoff push was spearheaded by their #8 D which is fortified by a #1 pass rush headed by
a 3 DE rotation of Umenyiora, Strahan & Tuck. The pass rush has masked some issues in the back 7 with
the loss of DE/OLB Kiwanuka & MLB Pierce playing hurt all yr & starting rookie CB Ross. WLB Mitchell was
rested vs NE & his status is unknown. While the Giants are all?g 96 ypg rushing (3.8), they have 9 gms with
100+ yds rushing all?d for 124 ypg (4.6) avg in those. With the loss of RB Barber even more pressure fell on
Eli Manning who started the season passing for 218 ypg (60%) with a 13-9 ratio in the 1st 7 games. Skipping
the MIA game Manning had passed for 214 ypg (52%) with a 6-10 ratio (62.2 QBR) before his impressive
game of 251 yds (69%) with a 4-1 ratio vs NE. He had been limited by poor weather conditions, Burress? bad
ankle, a shaky RB rotation with Jacobs (knee sprain & hamstring) missing 5 games & the loss of TE Shockey
(broken leg). WR Toomer rebounded from LY?s torn ACL to be the #3 receiver & the OL has done a decent
job of protecting him with 29 sacks all?d (12th) & has started all 17 games. However, Ctr O?Hara sustained
a knee injury vs NE & his status is ?. Jacobs has five 100 yd rushing games as a power runner & the team
avg?s 134 ypg rushing (4.5) which is 1 yd & 0.1 ypc less than LY?s numbers with Barber. The Giants have our
#23 spec teams unit as their return units are avg at best with 8.7 PR & 20.1 KR avg?s.
Bill Parcells built this version of the Cowboys but Wade Phillips has managed to get the most out of it &
thanks to OC Garrett the most out of Tony Romo. Romo heads up the #4 passing off & broke several team
records incl passing yards, comp % & TD?s. He finished the year 2nd in passing TD?s & ypa to Brady with
the highest QBR for an NFC QB. He has a great chemstry with Terrell Owens who is 5th in rec yards & 4th
in ypc but will be a gametime decision (ankle). The top receiver for the Cowboys is TE Witten who is 10th
in the NFL & 2nd only to Tony Gonzalez in rec?s. DAL anticipates having Terry Glenn back for this game but
he?ll be limited in snaps & Patrick Crayton has done a good job as the #3 receiving option. DAL is only 17th
in rush & the clear cut #1 RB here is Marion Barber who?s 21st in rushing & 12th in ypc. Julius Jones is now
the 3rd Dn back & the 2 combined have three 100 yd rushing games. LY the DAL OL all?d 37 sacks & they
improved to 25 TY with the same starters for the 1st 14 games until Ctr Gurode missed the L2 with a knee
inj. DAL is 2nd & 27th on 3rd Dns with the #15 & #10 red-zone units. Under Parcells LY DAL finished with the
#13 D but the players didn?t quite fit the scheme. DAL improved to 9th on def & 3rd in sacks (46) vs 19th LY
as Phillips is more aggressive. Not counting the season finale DAL has all?d six 100 yd rushing games (129
ypg, 5.0) with 68 ypg (3.2) in the others. The strength of the Cowboys def is its LB corps with Greg Ellis who
had a great year after tearing his Achillies LY & DeMarcus Ware combining for 26.5 sacks & Bradie James
& Akin Ayodele being the ILB?s. DAL has the #14 pass defense & is all?g 237 ypg (57%) with a 13-6 ratio at
home. Both Terence Newman & FS Ken Hamlin made the Pro Bowl while Anthony Henry led the team with
6 int but Roy Williams can still be burned for big plays in the passing game. DAL has our #15 special teams
unit as they are below avg in coverage units (11.6 PR & 23.0 KR) & are 19th in KR?s with a 22.3 avg.
The Giants have now won 8 straight on the road since an opening week loss at DAL. Their defense gets
the credit for the win streak allowing 14 ppg in that span. DAL has dropped 4 straight ATS & in their 2 SU
losses only scored 6 pts in each. DAL did rest players vs WAS but an offensive team needs 1.5 quarters to
get its timing back. While both games went Over the total this meeting gives an edge to the DC?s as they?ll
be familiar with the opposing QB?s. The early forecast calls for rain & wind which adds to Under call here.
FORECAST: UNDER 48 RATING: 2★
THE GOLD SHEET
INDIANAPOLIS 31 - San Diego 13?Sometimes, we?re tempted to dismiss
entirely any regular-season meetings between postseason combatants. And
we certainly don?t expect the same set of circumstances to occur in this
rematch of San Diego?s hard-to-explain 23-21 win over Indy back on
November 11 at Qualcomm Stadium. But so many of the particulars of that
matchup were out of the ordinary that we simply have to rehash some of them
to lend a proper backdrop to our analysis of this playoff battle.
The surreal tenor of that Sunday night clash was established on the opening
kickoff, when the Chargers? Darren Sproles went 89 yards for TD. Before the
first quarter was finished, Sproles scored on another return, taking a Hunter
Smith punt 45 yards to the house, staking underdog San Diego to a 16-0 lead
after barely 9 minutes of action. The lead mushroomed to 23-0 before the Colts
began to chip away, and Indy was even positioned to win the game in the final
minutes when normally-reliable PK Adam Vinatieri pushed a routine 29-yard FG
wide to the right. When the dust settled, San Diego was a 23-21 winner, and
Peyton Manning had endured his worst night as a pro, suffering six
interceptions (three of those by CB Antonio Cromartie) and recording a careerlow
30.6 passer rating for the game. The Bolts did little offensively, and almost
nothing in the final 30 minutes, outgained better than 2-to-1 while QB Philip
Rivers experienced a brutal night, passing for just 104 yards. But those returns
by Sproles and Manning?s inordinately uncharacteristic sloppiness, not to
mention Vinatieri?s rare miss, added up to a frustrating night for Indy.
Do we expect anything close to those circumstances arising again in what
might be the last-ever game at the RCA Dome? In a word?no!
The dynamics are going to be far different for the rematch, one the
defending-champ Colts dare not overlook as they might have the last two series
meetings, which also include San Diego?s 26-17 win in ?05 that stopped a 13-
game Indy win streak. Expect a sharper Manning, especially since key WR
Marvin Harrison (who missed the Nov. 11 clash) is likely going to be available for
the first time in more than two months. The Colt stop unit proved it could deal
with L.T. in the first meeting, allowing him a modest 76 YR, and Indy?s top-ranked
pass defense (which shackled Rivers in November) might have even less to
worry about if star Charger TE Antonio Gates is limited (or absent altogether)
after last week?s toe injury vs. the Titans. Moreover, San Diego might be feeling
a sense of relief after finally getting a long-awaited playoff win that had it eluded
them for 13 agonizing years. And the thought still persists that this year?s Bolts
aren?t as good as last year?s version, despite their notable current 7-game win
and cover streak.
Indy, sturdier defensively than it was a year ago, and undoubtedly primed after
the fiasco at Qualcomm in November, should gain its revenge...and then some.
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-SAN DIEGO +3' 23-21...SR: San Diego 14-9)
NY GIANTS (11-6) at DALLAS (13-3)
Sunday, January 13, 2008
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
NY Giants 11-6 11-6 23 21 132 196 47-16-25 96 208 43-13-25 -6 .1 5.9
Dallas 13-3 9-7 28 20 109 256 54-14-36 95 213 36-12-19 5 2.3 6.1
DALLAS 30 - N.Y. Giants 27?There are a couple of different ways to
interpret the meaning of multiple regular-season meetings between playoff
foes?especially when there was a lot of similarity between the first two
matchups. Can we expect a repeat of the first two results? Or will the third time
finally prove the charm for the vanquished regular-season side?
Both meetings TY ended up as Dallas wins by nearly-identical margins (45-35
& 31-20), with the dynamics of each matchup quite similar as well. The
Cowboys were able to get their big-play offense in gear, especially thru the air,
with Tony Romo passing for 4 TDs in both games. Terrell Owens caught a pair
of scores in each, and indeed 8 of Dallas? 10 TDs were on plays of 15 yards or
longer. On the other side, Eli Manning had his moments, including 4 TD passes in
the opener, but his two picks in the Nov. 11 rematch at the Meadowlands proved
costly. Moreover, the Giants? renowned pass rush had little impact in either game,
recording only 3 sacks combined in the two tussles. Given time to throw,
Romo was able to make the game-changing plays to break each game open.
However, it?s worth noting that the Giants were hanging close in both of
those battles until the late going, cutting Dallas? lead to 3 deep in the 4th Q before
Romo and Sam Hurd hooked up on a 51-yarder to put the first game away, and
within 24-20 in the rematch until Romo connected on a late 50-yard strike to T.O.
But this time, we wouldn?t count on Romo extending the margin out of New
York?s reach with another long, late TD pass.
Sure, Dallas might be rejuvenated after last week?s ?bye,? but there?s some
evidence that the Cowboys might have peaked a little too soon in ?07. Although
in control of the home-field edge in the NFC after their November 29 win over
Green Bay, Dallas labored thereafter, losing twice (one of those the
meaningless finale at Washington) and failed to cover its last 4, barely missing
another SU loss at Detroit in the process. Romo?s performances cooled just as
his relationship with Jessica Simpson began to heat up. T.O., though likely
available, might still be compromised by an ankle sprain suffered Dec. 22 at
Carolina. And the possible absence of C Andre Gurode (knee) could have
negative consequences for the OL.
Meanwhile, the Giants suddenly have a look of confidence about them,
perhaps borne from 8 straight wins away from home, Eli Manning?s apparent
maturation at QB, a receiving corps that has adjusted to the loss of TE Jeremy
Shockey, and an improved OL that gave Eli plenty of time last week at Tampa
Bay. Not to mention that disruptive pass rush. Remember, despite the regularseason
results, there was nothing easy about either of those Cowboy wins.
And there doesn?t figure to be anything easy about this one, either.
(07-DAL. 45-Giants 35...N.22-21 D.30/142 N.22/124 D.15/24/1/336 N.29/44/1/
INDIANAPOLIS 31 - San Diego 13?Sometimes, we?re tempted to dismiss
entirely any regular-season meetings between postseason combatants. And
we certainly don?t expect the same set of circumstances to occur in this
rematch of San Diego?s hard-to-explain 23-21 win over Indy back on
November 11 at Qualcomm Stadium. But so many of the particulars of that
matchup were out of the ordinary that we simply have to rehash some of them
to lend a proper backdrop to our analysis of this playoff battle.
The surreal tenor of that Sunday night clash was established on the opening
kickoff, when the Chargers? Darren Sproles went 89 yards for TD. Before the
first quarter was finished, Sproles scored on another return, taking a Hunter
Smith punt 45 yards to the house, staking underdog San Diego to a 16-0 lead
after barely 9 minutes of action. The lead mushroomed to 23-0 before the Colts
began to chip away, and Indy was even positioned to win the game in the final
minutes when normally-reliable PK Adam Vinatieri pushed a routine 29-yard FG
wide to the right. When the dust settled, San Diego was a 23-21 winner, and
Peyton Manning had endured his worst night as a pro, suffering six
interceptions (three of those by CB Antonio Cromartie) and recording a careerlow
30.6 passer rating for the game. The Bolts did little offensively, and almost
nothing in the final 30 minutes, outgained better than 2-to-1 while QB Philip
Rivers experienced a brutal night, passing for just 104 yards. But those returns
by Sproles and Manning?s inordinately uncharacteristic sloppiness, not to
mention Vinatieri?s rare miss, added up to a frustrating night for Indy.
Do we expect anything close to those circumstances arising again in what
might be the last-ever game at the RCA Dome? In a word?no!
The dynamics are going to be far different for the rematch, one the
defending-champ Colts dare not overlook as they might have the last two series
meetings, which also include San Diego?s 26-17 win in ?05 that stopped a 13-
game Indy win streak. Expect a sharper Manning, especially since key WR
Marvin Harrison (who missed the Nov. 11 clash) is likely going to be available for
the first time in more than two months. The Colt stop unit proved it could deal
with L.T. in the first meeting, allowing him a modest 76 YR, and Indy?s top-ranked
pass defense (which shackled Rivers in November) might have even less to
worry about if star Charger TE Antonio Gates is limited (or absent altogether)
after last week?s toe injury vs. the Titans. Moreover, San Diego might be feeling
a sense of relief after finally getting a long-awaited playoff win that had it eluded
them for 13 agonizing years. And the thought still persists that this year?s Bolts
aren?t as good as last year?s version, despite their notable current 7-game win
and cover streak.
Indy, sturdier defensively than it was a year ago, and undoubtedly primed after
the fiasco at Qualcomm in November, should gain its revenge...and then some.
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Indy 21...I.25-11 S.24/91 I.26/75 I.34/56/6/311 S.13/24/2/86 S.1 I.1)
(07-SAN DIEGO +3' 23-21...SR: San Diego 14-9)
NY GIANTS (11-6) at DALLAS (13-3)
Sunday, January 13, 2008
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
NY Giants 11-6 11-6 23 21 132 196 47-16-25 96 208 43-13-25 -6 .1 5.9
Dallas 13-3 9-7 28 20 109 256 54-14-36 95 213 36-12-19 5 2.3 6.1
DALLAS 30 - N.Y. Giants 27?There are a couple of different ways to
interpret the meaning of multiple regular-season meetings between playoff
foes?especially when there was a lot of similarity between the first two
matchups. Can we expect a repeat of the first two results? Or will the third time
finally prove the charm for the vanquished regular-season side?
Both meetings TY ended up as Dallas wins by nearly-identical margins (45-35
& 31-20), with the dynamics of each matchup quite similar as well. The
Cowboys were able to get their big-play offense in gear, especially thru the air,
with Tony Romo passing for 4 TDs in both games. Terrell Owens caught a pair
of scores in each, and indeed 8 of Dallas? 10 TDs were on plays of 15 yards or
longer. On the other side, Eli Manning had his moments, including 4 TD passes in
the opener, but his two picks in the Nov. 11 rematch at the Meadowlands proved
costly. Moreover, the Giants? renowned pass rush had little impact in either game,
recording only 3 sacks combined in the two tussles. Given time to throw,
Romo was able to make the game-changing plays to break each game open.
However, it?s worth noting that the Giants were hanging close in both of
those battles until the late going, cutting Dallas? lead to 3 deep in the 4th Q before
Romo and Sam Hurd hooked up on a 51-yarder to put the first game away, and
within 24-20 in the rematch until Romo connected on a late 50-yard strike to T.O.
But this time, we wouldn?t count on Romo extending the margin out of New
York?s reach with another long, late TD pass.
Sure, Dallas might be rejuvenated after last week?s ?bye,? but there?s some
evidence that the Cowboys might have peaked a little too soon in ?07. Although
in control of the home-field edge in the NFC after their November 29 win over
Green Bay, Dallas labored thereafter, losing twice (one of those the
meaningless finale at Washington) and failed to cover its last 4, barely missing
another SU loss at Detroit in the process. Romo?s performances cooled just as
his relationship with Jessica Simpson began to heat up. T.O., though likely
available, might still be compromised by an ankle sprain suffered Dec. 22 at
Carolina. And the possible absence of C Andre Gurode (knee) could have
negative consequences for the OL.
Meanwhile, the Giants suddenly have a look of confidence about them,
perhaps borne from 8 straight wins away from home, Eli Manning?s apparent
maturation at QB, a receiving corps that has adjusted to the loss of TE Jeremy
Shockey, and an improved OL that gave Eli plenty of time last week at Tampa
Bay. Not to mention that disruptive pass rush. Remember, despite the regularseason
results, there was nothing easy about either of those Cowboy wins.
And there doesn?t figure to be anything easy about this one, either.
(07-DAL. 45-Giants 35...N.22-21 D.30/142 N.22/124 D.15/24/1/336 N.29/44/1/
MARC LAWRENCE
INDIANAPOLIS over San Diego by 13
Chargers enter as the league?s hottest commodity with seven wins and covers in
their last seven games. They needed a second half surge, though, to get past
Tennessee last week. Truth be told, they are the only team on the playoff scene
that has allowed almost as many yards as they?ve gained this season. They?ll also
take on the defending Super Bowl champions, one with revenge on its mind from
a 23-21 loss in San Diego ? a game in which the Colts outyarded the Chargers,
386-177. That defeat occurred just one week after Indy?s monumental battle with
New England. The PLAYBOOK Database reminds us that defending Super Bowl
champions are murder at home in the playoffs the following season, 10-1 SUATS
as favorites of < 14 points since 1990. In addition, we also note that rested playoff
home teams off a loss are 24-5 SU & 20-9 ATS? a solid winning proposition to
say the least. And, for what it?s worth, Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy is 14-
1 ATS in his NFL career in SU wins when playing off a loss with revenge. Speaking
of coaches, to his credit Diego boss man Norv Turner is remarkably strong in games
off a DD win against an opponent he beat most recently, now 17-3 ATS. The final
decision-maker in this contest rests at the quarterback position. While Philip Rivers
may some day be a fine QB, he?s nowhere near the stature of Peyton Manning
when it comes to class and ability. And besides, this game is at Peyton?s place.
DALLAS over NY Giants by 10
Facing a division rival they downed twice this season, Dallas will certainly be
put to the test here today. That?s because playoff dogs of 6 > points, with
same-season double revenge (Giants), are 4-3 SU & 6-0-1 ATS since 1989.
Hmmm... not bad for a team that?s won its last eight road games in a row. In
fact, the only road defeat suffered by New York this year was the season opener
here in Dallas. However, before taking a leap off the Empire State building, you
might want to consider that last week?s win by the Giants was their first road
playoff victory in 17 years. And, like the Colts above, the Cowboys are another
rested playoff home team off a loss ? only when these guys are facing an
opponent off one-win exact, they are a perfect 9-0 ATS! In addition, rested
homers also own an outstanding 23-2 SU & 20-5 ATS mark against opponents
they defeated in their most recent meeting if the foe is off a SU underdog win.
Dallas head coach Wade Phillips will obviously need to break his maiden in
order to perpetuate those numbers, though, as Phillips is 0-3 SUATS in his NFL
head coaching career during the post-season. With Cowboy QB Tony Romo
anxious to erase the memory of last year?s botched snap against Seattle, and
Dallas 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS as home chalk of 6 > points in this series, look for
?America?s Team? to hit a Giant trifecta here today.
INDIANAPOLIS over San Diego by 13
Chargers enter as the league?s hottest commodity with seven wins and covers in
their last seven games. They needed a second half surge, though, to get past
Tennessee last week. Truth be told, they are the only team on the playoff scene
that has allowed almost as many yards as they?ve gained this season. They?ll also
take on the defending Super Bowl champions, one with revenge on its mind from
a 23-21 loss in San Diego ? a game in which the Colts outyarded the Chargers,
386-177. That defeat occurred just one week after Indy?s monumental battle with
New England. The PLAYBOOK Database reminds us that defending Super Bowl
champions are murder at home in the playoffs the following season, 10-1 SUATS
as favorites of < 14 points since 1990. In addition, we also note that rested playoff
home teams off a loss are 24-5 SU & 20-9 ATS? a solid winning proposition to
say the least. And, for what it?s worth, Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy is 14-
1 ATS in his NFL career in SU wins when playing off a loss with revenge. Speaking
of coaches, to his credit Diego boss man Norv Turner is remarkably strong in games
off a DD win against an opponent he beat most recently, now 17-3 ATS. The final
decision-maker in this contest rests at the quarterback position. While Philip Rivers
may some day be a fine QB, he?s nowhere near the stature of Peyton Manning
when it comes to class and ability. And besides, this game is at Peyton?s place.
DALLAS over NY Giants by 10
Facing a division rival they downed twice this season, Dallas will certainly be
put to the test here today. That?s because playoff dogs of 6 > points, with
same-season double revenge (Giants), are 4-3 SU & 6-0-1 ATS since 1989.
Hmmm... not bad for a team that?s won its last eight road games in a row. In
fact, the only road defeat suffered by New York this year was the season opener
here in Dallas. However, before taking a leap off the Empire State building, you
might want to consider that last week?s win by the Giants was their first road
playoff victory in 17 years. And, like the Colts above, the Cowboys are another
rested playoff home team off a loss ? only when these guys are facing an
opponent off one-win exact, they are a perfect 9-0 ATS! In addition, rested
homers also own an outstanding 23-2 SU & 20-5 ATS mark against opponents
they defeated in their most recent meeting if the foe is off a SU underdog win.
Dallas head coach Wade Phillips will obviously need to break his maiden in
order to perpetuate those numbers, though, as Phillips is 0-3 SUATS in his NFL
head coaching career during the post-season. With Cowboy QB Tony Romo
anxious to erase the memory of last year?s botched snap against Seattle, and
Dallas 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS as home chalk of 6 > points in this series, look for
?America?s Team? to hit a Giant trifecta here today.
Sports Marketwatch ? NFL Week 19 ? NFL Playoffs
NFL Playoffs- Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of ?Public? square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual ?box-office-pool? ? to the professional sports bettor ? to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of ?Public? money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game?s betting line. They?ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. ?Public Money? dwarfs the amount of ?Sharp Money? buying back the shaded lines.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
The Giants are collecting 70% of the bets placed on this game, based mainly on their strong performances over the past few weeks. Last week, Eli Manning looked solid in the Giants? 24-14 over a good Tampa Bay squad. This followed a huge showing versus the Patriots, even in defeat. That game, which was a heavily-watched nationally-televised media event, earned the Giants many believers.
On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboy juggernaut seems to have slowed down near the end of the season. There are a lot of Cowboy question marks, including Romo?s thumb and TO?s ankle. We feel, however, that the Giants have question marks of their own: particularly Eli Manning?s historic inconsistency. Based on this information, our readers know that we see this as a good contrarian play: buying Dallas at a ?low? and selling the Giants at a ?high.?
Our oddsmaker contacts at the sportsbooks agree. The line opened at Dallas -7.5 and has stubbornly stayed at that level. The linesmakers tell us that heavy public betting on the Giants is balancing ?sharp money? on the Cowboys. With the increased betting interest during the NFL playoffs, however, we may see public money pushing the line down to Dallas -7 across the board. We already see Dallas -7 at the Greek.
Dallas Cowboys -7
NFL Playoffs- Games to Watch
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of ?Public? square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual ?box-office-pool? ? to the professional sports bettor ? to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of ?Public? money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game?s betting line. They?ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. ?Public Money? dwarfs the amount of ?Sharp Money? buying back the shaded lines.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
The Giants are collecting 70% of the bets placed on this game, based mainly on their strong performances over the past few weeks. Last week, Eli Manning looked solid in the Giants? 24-14 over a good Tampa Bay squad. This followed a huge showing versus the Patriots, even in defeat. That game, which was a heavily-watched nationally-televised media event, earned the Giants many believers.
On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboy juggernaut seems to have slowed down near the end of the season. There are a lot of Cowboy question marks, including Romo?s thumb and TO?s ankle. We feel, however, that the Giants have question marks of their own: particularly Eli Manning?s historic inconsistency. Based on this information, our readers know that we see this as a good contrarian play: buying Dallas at a ?low? and selling the Giants at a ?high.?
Our oddsmaker contacts at the sportsbooks agree. The line opened at Dallas -7.5 and has stubbornly stayed at that level. The linesmakers tell us that heavy public betting on the Giants is balancing ?sharp money? on the Cowboys. With the increased betting interest during the NFL playoffs, however, we may see public money pushing the line down to Dallas -7 across the board. We already see Dallas -7 at the Greek.
Dallas Cowboys -7
WILD BILL
Chargers +8 1/2 (1 unit) Revenge factor in this tilt and a rested and healthier Colts squad. Chargers finally got the monkey off their back so to speak last week vs a struggling Titan offense. Colts minus Freeney, however they have back Harrison and Peyton loves revenge situations. Home field will be a factor and putting a grass team on turf on the road gives the Colts a slight edge at home. Chargers are 2-0 last 2 straight up and ATS vs the Colts however Colts at home in the post-season not exactly stellar and Vinatieri has had a rough year this year as compared to years past. Colts 27 Chargers 24
Over 46 Dallas-Giants (5 units) Rested Cowboys have won last two in series by 10 1/2 points and totals of 51 & 80 points respectively both on the road and at home. Chips are on the line for both teams to advance to the NFC Title game and Dallas is concentrating solely on the Giants in this one. Romo wants revenge for losing on the road to Seattle last year. TO should be back for this game as is Terry Glenn. Dallas 34 Giants 24
Dallas -7 1/2 (2 units) Home field advantage? Dallas has had it vs the Giants this year thus far. Giants defense will get riddled by short passes to Witten and other TE's for Cowboys and TO should bust out. Other factors will be special teams and RBs Jones & Barber should do much better at home than the Buccaneers runners did last week. Eli is overdue for a huge turnover output! Dallas 34 Giants 24
6 1/2 pt teaser: (2 units) Patriots -6 1/2, Packers -1 1/2, over 39 1/2 Dallas-NYG, Dallas -1
Chargers +8 1/2 (1 unit) Revenge factor in this tilt and a rested and healthier Colts squad. Chargers finally got the monkey off their back so to speak last week vs a struggling Titan offense. Colts minus Freeney, however they have back Harrison and Peyton loves revenge situations. Home field will be a factor and putting a grass team on turf on the road gives the Colts a slight edge at home. Chargers are 2-0 last 2 straight up and ATS vs the Colts however Colts at home in the post-season not exactly stellar and Vinatieri has had a rough year this year as compared to years past. Colts 27 Chargers 24
Over 46 Dallas-Giants (5 units) Rested Cowboys have won last two in series by 10 1/2 points and totals of 51 & 80 points respectively both on the road and at home. Chips are on the line for both teams to advance to the NFC Title game and Dallas is concentrating solely on the Giants in this one. Romo wants revenge for losing on the road to Seattle last year. TO should be back for this game as is Terry Glenn. Dallas 34 Giants 24
Dallas -7 1/2 (2 units) Home field advantage? Dallas has had it vs the Giants this year thus far. Giants defense will get riddled by short passes to Witten and other TE's for Cowboys and TO should bust out. Other factors will be special teams and RBs Jones & Barber should do much better at home than the Buccaneers runners did last week. Eli is overdue for a huge turnover output! Dallas 34 Giants 24
6 1/2 pt teaser: (2 units) Patriots -6 1/2, Packers -1 1/2, over 39 1/2 Dallas-NYG, Dallas -1
LT PROFITS (comp)
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts u46.0 (-110)
Sun Jan 13 '08 1:00p
As oftentimes happens in marquee playoff games like this one between the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers, the total seems a tad inflated due to the ability of the offenses, while the two excellent defenses are seemingly undervalued.
Everyone knows about the explosive potential of the Colts offense, especially with Peyton Manning?s favorite target Marvin Harrison expected to be back in the lineup. But remember that the Indianapolis defense was again one of the best in the NFL this season, allowing just 16.4 points and 279.7 total yards per game. The unit includes the Defensive Player of the Year in Bob Sanders, and his presence allows the secondary to use one-on-one coverage, freeing the front seven to concentrate on a way to contain LaDainian Tomlinson and the running game. If they are successful in that regard, we simply do not trust Philip Rivers to put up a lot of points at this stage in this environment.
Not the be outdone, the San Diego defense is allowing just 17.1 points per game, and the Chargers have allowed no more than 17 points in any of their last seven games, including their 17-6 triumph over the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round. Yes, the Colts offense is obviously a tougher assignment, but the Chargers have actually done fairly well against Manning & Co. because of their fine pass rush. The last time San Diego played in this stadium, they ended the Colts? dreams of a perfect season by handing them their first loss after a 13-0 start in 2005. Some of the players may now be different, but the philosophy remains the same in that the best way to stop Manning is to apply constant pressure on him, and this Charger team is well-equipped to do that.
Naturally, we do not expect either of these offenses to be shut down the whole game. However, we do expect each defense to make enough stops to make this a much lower scoring battle than many people expect.
NFL Free Pick: Chargers, Colts Under 46
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts u46.0 (-110)
Sun Jan 13 '08 1:00p
As oftentimes happens in marquee playoff games like this one between the Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers, the total seems a tad inflated due to the ability of the offenses, while the two excellent defenses are seemingly undervalued.
Everyone knows about the explosive potential of the Colts offense, especially with Peyton Manning?s favorite target Marvin Harrison expected to be back in the lineup. But remember that the Indianapolis defense was again one of the best in the NFL this season, allowing just 16.4 points and 279.7 total yards per game. The unit includes the Defensive Player of the Year in Bob Sanders, and his presence allows the secondary to use one-on-one coverage, freeing the front seven to concentrate on a way to contain LaDainian Tomlinson and the running game. If they are successful in that regard, we simply do not trust Philip Rivers to put up a lot of points at this stage in this environment.
Not the be outdone, the San Diego defense is allowing just 17.1 points per game, and the Chargers have allowed no more than 17 points in any of their last seven games, including their 17-6 triumph over the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round. Yes, the Colts offense is obviously a tougher assignment, but the Chargers have actually done fairly well against Manning & Co. because of their fine pass rush. The last time San Diego played in this stadium, they ended the Colts? dreams of a perfect season by handing them their first loss after a 13-0 start in 2005. Some of the players may now be different, but the philosophy remains the same in that the best way to stop Manning is to apply constant pressure on him, and this Charger team is well-equipped to do that.
Naturally, we do not expect either of these offenses to be shut down the whole game. However, we do expect each defense to make enough stops to make this a much lower scoring battle than many people expect.
NFL Free Pick: Chargers, Colts Under 46
New York Giants at Dallas
By: MIKE WYNN SPORTS
We've seen these teams have two match ups this season, which resulted in two double-digit Dallas wins. Week 1 the Cowboys out-lasted the Giants in a 45-35 track meet, and then in week 10 the Cowboys went into the Meadowlands against a very motivated Giants squad and came out with a 31-20 win. Tony Romo had his way with the Giants defense in both games, tossing 4 touchdown passes in each of the wins and rushing for a score in the first match up. His counterpart, Eli Manning, did his part in game one, tossing for 4 scores, but he struggled a bit in the rematch, throwing 2 interception and just 1 touchdown. So are we going to see another double-digit Dallas win here Sunday, or can the Giants slow down Romo and company? We?ll take a look at both teams, and we will start with the visiting Giants.
As I mentioned earlier, New York did open up the season with a road loss at Dallas, but since then the Giants have been road warriors, winning eight straight on the road if you include the trip to London where they played Miami. Eli Manning is, arguably, coming of age down the stretch with an impressive outing against New England in the season finale, and the road win over Tampa Bay last Sunday. Manning did a good job of taking care of the ball in those last two games with just 1 interception against 6 touchdown passes. Brandon Jacobs is a bit nicked up at running back for the Giants right now, but the emergence of Bradshaw as a viable option has to make Tom Coughlin and his staff happy. Plaxico Burress, who?s been nursing injuries all season, has finally been able to practice, and that?s a big plus for the Giants. Offensively, I think the Giants will be OK, but it?s the defense that?s going to have to play much better Sunday than they did in the previous two match ups if New York wants to play in the NFC Championship next weekend.
The Dallas Cowboys' offense, which had been the #1 scoring offense in the NFC, did struggle a bit over the last three weeks of the season. Top wide out Terrell Owens injured his ankle in the Carolina game, and the offense wasn?t the same without him. Owens is expected to play on Sunday, but if he isn?t 100%, it will impact the Cowboy offense. Romo, without his star receiver, also struggled down the stretch, nursing a sore thumb, but the beauty of getting a top spot in the playoffs is getting that extra week to get healthy. Dallas has a great 1-2 punch at running back with Barber and Jones, and a Pro Bowl tight end in Jason Witten, who may be the most important weapon in the offensive scheme for Dallas. Defensively, the Cowboys never really lived up to the pre-season billing, but they?re a decent unit, ranking 9th in the league and 6th against the run. Forget about the Dallas injuries here as the bye week will have the Cowboys at full strength and ready to avenge last year's last second loss at Seattle.
Now it?s time to take a look at some of the trends and angles. First, as I mentioned, the Giants are 8-0 straight up in road games since the week 1 loss, and 7-1 ATS in those games. The Cowboys are 2-0 straight up and ATS versus the Giants this season, with both games going over the posted total. Dallas is 10-5-1 ATS at home versus New York since 1992, and 7-0 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons. The Cowboys are also 15-5 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a divisional rival, and 20-8 ATS at home off two or more consecutive losses against the spread. The trends and the week off would favor the Cowboys, but it?s hard to beat a team three times in one season, and that?s why I?m going with the over here Sunday. Both previous match ups this year went over and I see this game unfolding as another high scoring game. With TO back in the line up, I expect the Dallas offense to move the ball like the Cowboy offense we saw for most of the season. I also think Eli Manning is going to have another solid game throwing the ball.
Free winner from Mike Wynn: Last week we hit all four wild card sides at Mike Wynn Sports, plus ran our Locker Room Report run to 11-3 with the Giants under. This week, we totally bury them again and run our record to 12-3 with the Giants/Cowboys over the total of 47 points.
By: MIKE WYNN SPORTS
We've seen these teams have two match ups this season, which resulted in two double-digit Dallas wins. Week 1 the Cowboys out-lasted the Giants in a 45-35 track meet, and then in week 10 the Cowboys went into the Meadowlands against a very motivated Giants squad and came out with a 31-20 win. Tony Romo had his way with the Giants defense in both games, tossing 4 touchdown passes in each of the wins and rushing for a score in the first match up. His counterpart, Eli Manning, did his part in game one, tossing for 4 scores, but he struggled a bit in the rematch, throwing 2 interception and just 1 touchdown. So are we going to see another double-digit Dallas win here Sunday, or can the Giants slow down Romo and company? We?ll take a look at both teams, and we will start with the visiting Giants.
As I mentioned earlier, New York did open up the season with a road loss at Dallas, but since then the Giants have been road warriors, winning eight straight on the road if you include the trip to London where they played Miami. Eli Manning is, arguably, coming of age down the stretch with an impressive outing against New England in the season finale, and the road win over Tampa Bay last Sunday. Manning did a good job of taking care of the ball in those last two games with just 1 interception against 6 touchdown passes. Brandon Jacobs is a bit nicked up at running back for the Giants right now, but the emergence of Bradshaw as a viable option has to make Tom Coughlin and his staff happy. Plaxico Burress, who?s been nursing injuries all season, has finally been able to practice, and that?s a big plus for the Giants. Offensively, I think the Giants will be OK, but it?s the defense that?s going to have to play much better Sunday than they did in the previous two match ups if New York wants to play in the NFC Championship next weekend.
The Dallas Cowboys' offense, which had been the #1 scoring offense in the NFC, did struggle a bit over the last three weeks of the season. Top wide out Terrell Owens injured his ankle in the Carolina game, and the offense wasn?t the same without him. Owens is expected to play on Sunday, but if he isn?t 100%, it will impact the Cowboy offense. Romo, without his star receiver, also struggled down the stretch, nursing a sore thumb, but the beauty of getting a top spot in the playoffs is getting that extra week to get healthy. Dallas has a great 1-2 punch at running back with Barber and Jones, and a Pro Bowl tight end in Jason Witten, who may be the most important weapon in the offensive scheme for Dallas. Defensively, the Cowboys never really lived up to the pre-season billing, but they?re a decent unit, ranking 9th in the league and 6th against the run. Forget about the Dallas injuries here as the bye week will have the Cowboys at full strength and ready to avenge last year's last second loss at Seattle.
Now it?s time to take a look at some of the trends and angles. First, as I mentioned, the Giants are 8-0 straight up in road games since the week 1 loss, and 7-1 ATS in those games. The Cowboys are 2-0 straight up and ATS versus the Giants this season, with both games going over the posted total. Dallas is 10-5-1 ATS at home versus New York since 1992, and 7-0 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons. The Cowboys are also 15-5 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a divisional rival, and 20-8 ATS at home off two or more consecutive losses against the spread. The trends and the week off would favor the Cowboys, but it?s hard to beat a team three times in one season, and that?s why I?m going with the over here Sunday. Both previous match ups this year went over and I see this game unfolding as another high scoring game. With TO back in the line up, I expect the Dallas offense to move the ball like the Cowboy offense we saw for most of the season. I also think Eli Manning is going to have another solid game throwing the ball.
Free winner from Mike Wynn: Last week we hit all four wild card sides at Mike Wynn Sports, plus ran our Locker Room Report run to 11-3 with the Giants under. This week, we totally bury them again and run our record to 12-3 with the Giants/Cowboys over the total of 47 points.
San Diego at Indianapolis
By: Tom Hatfield from RAZOR SHARP SPORTS
The wildcard weekend lived up to its name. We saw a 13-0 game heading into the fourth end up 35-14 and costing us our under play. We saw Jacksonville take an 18 point lead into the fourth, just to see Pittsburgh come back. Then the Jags kicked a late FG to get the win, but not the cover. We saw the Titans shut out the Chargers in the first half and shut down L.T. to only 42 rushing yards, but the Bolts rallied behind QB Phillip Rivers to get the 17-6 win and cover by a half. The Giants got dominated in the first quarter by the Bucs. They had three straight 3-and-out series and were down 7-0. They then took over and controlled the rest of the way to win 24-14. So do we have more wildness coming this week? Looking at the lines shows that we may be in-store for a couple blowouts. All four games this week have favorites of a touchdown or more.
Heading into this year, the one match-up that wouldn?t have surprised anyone was the Super Bowl Champion Colts and the AFC-best 2006 regular season Chargers playing in the playoffs. Neither team is the #1 seed because of the Patriots, but both of these teams have plenty of talent and weapons to make a run and bring home the Lombardi Trophy. The first step to getting to the final goal is winning this week. Let?s take a look at both teams.
First of all let?s look at the visiting Chargers. San Diego hasn?t been the dominant team that they were last year. They started off slow, going 1-3, but have finished strong, winning 7 straight. As always, the offense will be lead by LaDainian Tomlinson. L.T. lead the NFL in rushing for the second straight year with 1474 yards and 15 TDs. This is a very good year for most people, but after last season?s record breaking 28 TDs and dynamic 1815 rushing yards, along with the incredible offensive numbers Tom Brady has put up, there hasn?t been a lot of talk about his year. QB Phillip Rivers has struggled a bit this season. His QB rating dropped from 92.0 to 82.4 this season. He threw 21 TDs and 15 interceptions this year compared to 22 TDs and just 9 ints last year. Defensively, the Chargers aren?t getting as much press as they did last season, but most of their numbers have improved. Last year they allowed 18.9 points per game. This year they have dropped it to 17.8. They had 16 interceptions (+13 in turnover ratio) last season. This year they led the NFL with 30 interceptions (+24 in turnover ratio). One key factor that could really affect the Chargers is the health of All-Pro TE Antonio Gates. Gates injured his big toe in last week?s game and his status is up in the air for this week.
Then we have the defending Champion Colts. Indianapolis has had one of the quietest 13-3 records in the history of the NFL. Playing in the shadow of the undefeated Patriots, the Super Bowl champs haven?t had to shoulder the repeat questions like most champions do. Peyton Manning continues to run one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Like L.T., Manning?s solid season has been overshadowed by Brady?s incredible numbers. Manning has a 98.0 QB rating. He has thrown for 4040 yards with 31 TDs and just 14 ints. Comparing that to Manning?s numbers over the last couple years, and the numbers are down, but compared to the rest of the NFL they are still right near the top. Manning got added help this year with the full time emergence of 2nd-year RB Joseph Addai. Addai ran for 1072 yards and 12 TDs, along with 41 catches for 364 yards and 3 more scores. Manning has had to keep the offense clicking without one of his favorite targets most of the year. Marvin Harrison has been hampered with a degenerative knee and has missed most of the season, playing in just five games. His last appearance was back in week 7. Reggie Wayne has stepped things up with 104 catches for 1510 yards and 10 TDs. TE Dallas Clark has also found pay dirt 11 times even though he has been banged up throughout the year. Rookie Anthony Gonzalez stepped up with 37 catches for 576 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, the Colts have been dynamite this year. Led by NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, the Colts lead the NFL in points allowed at 16.4. Compare that to 22.5 last season when Sanders was injured most of the year. The Colts are second in the NFL behind the Chargers at +18 in turnover ratio.
This will be the second meeting of the season between these two. Back in week 10 the Chargers beat the Colts 23-21 in rainy San Diego. In that game the Colts totally dominated the stats. They out-gained the Chargers 386 yards to just 177. First downs were 25-11. The three stats that the Bolts controlled were special teams, where Darren Sproles returned both a kick and a punt for a touchdown, turnovers, where Peyton Manning had a career high 6 interceptions, and, of course, the scoreboard where Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard FG with less than 2 minutes remaining. Taking a look at the past meetings shows that the Chargers have dominated. San Diego has won eight of the last twelve straight up and is 9-3 ATS. They are also 6-1 ATS in the last seven games played in Indianapolis. The last time these two teams met they scored 44 points in bad weather. Now the weather will be perfect in the RCA Dome. The Chargers have gone over the total in six of their last seven road games. Look for another over here.
Free winner from Razor Sharp Sports: Take SAN DIEGO / INDIANAPOLIS OVER the total 46.
By: Tom Hatfield from RAZOR SHARP SPORTS
The wildcard weekend lived up to its name. We saw a 13-0 game heading into the fourth end up 35-14 and costing us our under play. We saw Jacksonville take an 18 point lead into the fourth, just to see Pittsburgh come back. Then the Jags kicked a late FG to get the win, but not the cover. We saw the Titans shut out the Chargers in the first half and shut down L.T. to only 42 rushing yards, but the Bolts rallied behind QB Phillip Rivers to get the 17-6 win and cover by a half. The Giants got dominated in the first quarter by the Bucs. They had three straight 3-and-out series and were down 7-0. They then took over and controlled the rest of the way to win 24-14. So do we have more wildness coming this week? Looking at the lines shows that we may be in-store for a couple blowouts. All four games this week have favorites of a touchdown or more.
Heading into this year, the one match-up that wouldn?t have surprised anyone was the Super Bowl Champion Colts and the AFC-best 2006 regular season Chargers playing in the playoffs. Neither team is the #1 seed because of the Patriots, but both of these teams have plenty of talent and weapons to make a run and bring home the Lombardi Trophy. The first step to getting to the final goal is winning this week. Let?s take a look at both teams.
First of all let?s look at the visiting Chargers. San Diego hasn?t been the dominant team that they were last year. They started off slow, going 1-3, but have finished strong, winning 7 straight. As always, the offense will be lead by LaDainian Tomlinson. L.T. lead the NFL in rushing for the second straight year with 1474 yards and 15 TDs. This is a very good year for most people, but after last season?s record breaking 28 TDs and dynamic 1815 rushing yards, along with the incredible offensive numbers Tom Brady has put up, there hasn?t been a lot of talk about his year. QB Phillip Rivers has struggled a bit this season. His QB rating dropped from 92.0 to 82.4 this season. He threw 21 TDs and 15 interceptions this year compared to 22 TDs and just 9 ints last year. Defensively, the Chargers aren?t getting as much press as they did last season, but most of their numbers have improved. Last year they allowed 18.9 points per game. This year they have dropped it to 17.8. They had 16 interceptions (+13 in turnover ratio) last season. This year they led the NFL with 30 interceptions (+24 in turnover ratio). One key factor that could really affect the Chargers is the health of All-Pro TE Antonio Gates. Gates injured his big toe in last week?s game and his status is up in the air for this week.
Then we have the defending Champion Colts. Indianapolis has had one of the quietest 13-3 records in the history of the NFL. Playing in the shadow of the undefeated Patriots, the Super Bowl champs haven?t had to shoulder the repeat questions like most champions do. Peyton Manning continues to run one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Like L.T., Manning?s solid season has been overshadowed by Brady?s incredible numbers. Manning has a 98.0 QB rating. He has thrown for 4040 yards with 31 TDs and just 14 ints. Comparing that to Manning?s numbers over the last couple years, and the numbers are down, but compared to the rest of the NFL they are still right near the top. Manning got added help this year with the full time emergence of 2nd-year RB Joseph Addai. Addai ran for 1072 yards and 12 TDs, along with 41 catches for 364 yards and 3 more scores. Manning has had to keep the offense clicking without one of his favorite targets most of the year. Marvin Harrison has been hampered with a degenerative knee and has missed most of the season, playing in just five games. His last appearance was back in week 7. Reggie Wayne has stepped things up with 104 catches for 1510 yards and 10 TDs. TE Dallas Clark has also found pay dirt 11 times even though he has been banged up throughout the year. Rookie Anthony Gonzalez stepped up with 37 catches for 576 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, the Colts have been dynamite this year. Led by NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders, the Colts lead the NFL in points allowed at 16.4. Compare that to 22.5 last season when Sanders was injured most of the year. The Colts are second in the NFL behind the Chargers at +18 in turnover ratio.
This will be the second meeting of the season between these two. Back in week 10 the Chargers beat the Colts 23-21 in rainy San Diego. In that game the Colts totally dominated the stats. They out-gained the Chargers 386 yards to just 177. First downs were 25-11. The three stats that the Bolts controlled were special teams, where Darren Sproles returned both a kick and a punt for a touchdown, turnovers, where Peyton Manning had a career high 6 interceptions, and, of course, the scoreboard where Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard FG with less than 2 minutes remaining. Taking a look at the past meetings shows that the Chargers have dominated. San Diego has won eight of the last twelve straight up and is 9-3 ATS. They are also 6-1 ATS in the last seven games played in Indianapolis. The last time these two teams met they scored 44 points in bad weather. Now the weather will be perfect in the RCA Dome. The Chargers have gone over the total in six of their last seven road games. Look for another over here.
Free winner from Razor Sharp Sports: Take SAN DIEGO / INDIANAPOLIS OVER the total 46.
DOC (comp)
Take Over 45 ? in San Diego @ Indianapolis (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Chargers were the team to beat last year, but now if they have visions of reaching the Super Bowl they likely will have to win two road games. The Colts are now healthy on offense with WR Harrison ready to go giving them three outstanding receivers in the fold. The Chargers will need a healthy does of LT because of the uncertainty of their TE Gates for this affair. Coach Turner knows that the Chargers cannot start out flat like they did last week in San Diego and need to come out an attack and put points on the board. The Chargers have gone over the total in 11 of their 16 regular season games and both teams will reach the twenties in scoring giving us an easy cash with the over. We will not worry if Indy can cover this inflated number. Doc?s Sports has hit 11 of our last 12 NFL selections and wants you aboard for a Saturday double play and a Sunday sure shot winner. Indianapolis 31, San Diego 23.
Take Over 45 ? in San Diego @ Indianapolis (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) The Chargers were the team to beat last year, but now if they have visions of reaching the Super Bowl they likely will have to win two road games. The Colts are now healthy on offense with WR Harrison ready to go giving them three outstanding receivers in the fold. The Chargers will need a healthy does of LT because of the uncertainty of their TE Gates for this affair. Coach Turner knows that the Chargers cannot start out flat like they did last week in San Diego and need to come out an attack and put points on the board. The Chargers have gone over the total in 11 of their 16 regular season games and both teams will reach the twenties in scoring giving us an easy cash with the over. We will not worry if Indy can cover this inflated number. Doc?s Sports has hit 11 of our last 12 NFL selections and wants you aboard for a Saturday double play and a Sunday sure shot winner. Indianapolis 31, San Diego 23.
Stryker NFL System - NFL Divisional Dandy
By: TOM STRYKER
Published: 1/11/2008 at 10:56:00 AM
In the ?Elite Eight? stage of the NFL Playoffs, the history book shows that the home team has performed very well. According to my database, hosts at this stage of the game are a respectable 81-27 SU and 59-46-3 ATS. Even though I think there are a couple of road teams that have a very good shot at pulling off an upset this weekend, respect must be given to this profitable technical situation.
Last year, home teams posted a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS record in this round. On January 13th, 2006 Indianapolis defeated Baltimore 15-6 and New Orleans topped Philadelphia 27-24. Then, on Sunday, January 14th, New England stormed into San Diego and pulled off the amazing 24-21 upset and Chicago slipped past Seattle in the Windy City 27-24.
There will be some home teams that cover this weekend. You know that. The question at hand is which ones will it be? To answer that, I turned to my database to try and find which hosts deserved a closer look and more of our money.
On thing you might not want to do is back a home team in the Divisional Round coming off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. According to my NFL database, those hosts owned a dismal 21-26-2 ATS record. That eliminates Green Bay from the mix. From there, home dogs or favorites of -9? or less are still extremely profitable carrying a 39-8 SU and 32-14-1 ATS record. Only two of the remaining three home teams apply to this tightener: Indianapolis and Dallas.
If we eliminate all of the power road teams from that 32-14-1 ATS tightener, the ones that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .650, home teams in this situation explode to a sensational 22-6 ATS for 78.5 percent. There is only one host locked into this sweet set this weekend: Dallas. With a week of rest and matched up against a weaker opponent, the Cowboys are obviously in a great spot.
Good luck with Dallas this weekend and be sure to check back next week when I take a look at the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs! TS
By: TOM STRYKER
Published: 1/11/2008 at 10:56:00 AM
In the ?Elite Eight? stage of the NFL Playoffs, the history book shows that the home team has performed very well. According to my database, hosts at this stage of the game are a respectable 81-27 SU and 59-46-3 ATS. Even though I think there are a couple of road teams that have a very good shot at pulling off an upset this weekend, respect must be given to this profitable technical situation.
Last year, home teams posted a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS record in this round. On January 13th, 2006 Indianapolis defeated Baltimore 15-6 and New Orleans topped Philadelphia 27-24. Then, on Sunday, January 14th, New England stormed into San Diego and pulled off the amazing 24-21 upset and Chicago slipped past Seattle in the Windy City 27-24.
There will be some home teams that cover this weekend. You know that. The question at hand is which ones will it be? To answer that, I turned to my database to try and find which hosts deserved a closer look and more of our money.
On thing you might not want to do is back a home team in the Divisional Round coming off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. According to my NFL database, those hosts owned a dismal 21-26-2 ATS record. That eliminates Green Bay from the mix. From there, home dogs or favorites of -9? or less are still extremely profitable carrying a 39-8 SU and 32-14-1 ATS record. Only two of the remaining three home teams apply to this tightener: Indianapolis and Dallas.
If we eliminate all of the power road teams from that 32-14-1 ATS tightener, the ones that carry a won/loss percentage greater than .650, home teams in this situation explode to a sensational 22-6 ATS for 78.5 percent. There is only one host locked into this sweet set this weekend: Dallas. With a week of rest and matched up against a weaker opponent, the Cowboys are obviously in a great spot.
Good luck with Dallas this weekend and be sure to check back next week when I take a look at the Conference Championship Round of the NFL Playoffs! TS
DR. BOB
3 Star Selection
DALLAS (-7.5) 28 NY Giants 12
13-Jan-08 01:30 PM Pacific Time
New York was out of character last week in beating Tampa Bay, as the Giants committed no turnovers and were plus 3 in turnover margin. New York was -9 in turnover margin for the season heading into that game (while Tampa Bay was +13 in TO margin), so don?t expect the Giants to be turnover free again this week. Eli Manning looked in control of the offense, but he?s played error free football before and then looked horrible the very next week. The inconsistent Manning has rarely played error free in consecutive games and he?s actually been horrible in games following a game in which he did not throw an interception. In the last two seasons Manning has averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play with 14 interceptions in 9 games after not throwing a pick in the previous game, including 4.3 yppp and 8 picks in 4 such games this season. Manning may appear to be a better quarterback the last two weeks than he?s been all season but there is certainly no indication that he will continue to play well ? in fact it?s just the opposite. Manning averaged a sub-par 5.7 yppp this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don?t expect him to have much success against a Dallas defense that is 1.0 yppp better than average from week 4 on when star LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup after missing the first 3 games (for a second straight season the Cowboys were poor defensively without Ellis and good defensively with him). New York?s offensive strength in a rushing attack that averaged 4.7 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr to an average team), but the ground game will be slowed a bit by a solid Cowboys? run defense that gave up 4.1 ypr to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team. Overall, the Cowboys have a significant advantage with their defense over the Giants? offense and New York averaged just 4.5 yards per play at home against the Cowboys in week 10 (the good offensive production by the Giants at Dallas in week 1 was against a Cowboys? defense without Ellis).
The Giants defense is also better than their season numbers, as the 8.8 yards per play that they allowed the Cowboys in week 1 was a game in which Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison did not start. Madison was put into the starting lineup the following week and the Giants? defense has 0.6 yppl better than average in 16 games since then. Dallas was 0.9 yppl better than average for the season offensively (6.1 yppl against temas that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Cowboys averaged 6.0 yppl in a 31-20 win at New York in week 10. Star WR Terrell Owens has practiced this week and is expected to play and those that remember Owens? great play in the Super Bowl for the Eagles a few years ago with a broken leg have no doubt that Owens will perform well with his sprained ankle. The Cowboys are 0.9 yppl better than average offensively, so they have an advantage over the Giants? defense in this game. The key to the Giants? defense is a pass rush that averages 3.2 sacks per game but the elusive Tony Romo was sacked a total of just 3 times in 2 games against New York this season, which may be why he has played so well against them (if you can avoid the pressure than throwing against a sub-par Giants? secondary is not that tough to do). My math model projects 5.7 yppl for Dallas in this game, which should be more than enough to pull away from a Giants team that is expected to struggle offensively.
Overall my math model favors Dallas by 8 points in this game, so there really isn?t any line value. However, Dallas applies to a 21-3 ATS playoff situation while New York applies to a negative 6-35-1 ATS playoff situation. Dallas also applies to a very strong 46-8-1 ATS situation that is 20-0 ATS recently. I?ll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ? or -10 points. I?ll also lean with the Under in this game.
San Diego (+9) 17 INDIANAPOLIS 24
13-Jan-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Chargers? defense has given Peyton Manning fits in recent years, including a horrible 6 interception performance in San Diego earlier this season. The Chargers were also the first team to beat the Colts in 2005 after Indy started the season 13-0. There are theories that Manning has trouble with good 3-4 defensive schemes and his recent problems with Pittsburgh and San Diego certainly give some credence to that hypothesis. That week 10 meeting between these teams happen to be the first game in which All-Pro CB Antonio Cromartie was in the starting lineup and the Chargers? defense has been great ever since. San Diego has allowed just 4.4 yards per play in 9 games with Cromartie in the starting lineup (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team) and that unit stacks up evenly against a Colts? attack that is 0.7 yppl better than average with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Manning gets favorite target Marvin Harrison back in the lineup this week after missing all but the first 3 games this season. Manning?s numbers in those 3 games with Harrison were outstanding (8.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) but it?s tough to say whether Harrison will be as effective as usual so I?ll only make a slight adjustment for his return (i.e. I?ll use Manning?s full season stats, which includes those first 3 games, instead of using just his stats from the games without Harrison as I?ve been doing most of the season).
While the Chargers? defense looks up to the task of containing the Colts? offense I am not so sure that their offense will be able to do their share with star TE Antonio Gates questionable to play. Gates dislocated his toe in the Chargers? win over Tennessee last week and he hasn?t practiced at all this week and will be a game time decision. If Gates plays he probably won?t be playing at full speed and Philip Rivers would surely struggle against the Colts? great pass defense. Rivers has been 0.4 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he averages 8.4 yards per pass when he throws a pass to Gates, compared to 6.3 yards per pass attempt to any other receiver. Rivers goes from 0.4 yppp better than average with Gates to 0.1 yppp worse than average without him and I?ll assume he?s out for this game (or at least not as effective as usual). The Colts? defense was a very good 1.1 yppp better than averaged defending the pass this season (5.1 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense ? excluding their week 17 game when their starters didn?t play much), so Rivers would likely have trouble throwing the ball even if Gates was 100%. San Diego does have LaDainian Tomlinson to run the ball, but San Diego?s rushing attack has actually been no better than average this season, averaging 4.3 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team. The Colts are only 0.2 ypr better than average defensively, so Tomlinson could be a factor. Overall, the Chargers offense is average without Gates and the Colts are much better than average defensively, so it will be tough for San Diego to move the ball consistently. San Diego only averaged 3.8 ypr, 3.3 yppp and 3.5 yppl in their week 10 win over the Colts, as that win was the function of two return touchdowns and a +3 in turnover margin. In fact, to win that game by only 2 points despite having 2 return TD?s and 6 interceptions is an indication of how much better the Colts may be.
Overall, my math model favors Indy by just 8 points while assuming that Gates won?t play (and he may), so I?ll lean slightly with San Diego plus 7 ? points or more and I will also lean with the Under in this game as both defenses are very good.
3 Star Selection
DALLAS (-7.5) 28 NY Giants 12
13-Jan-08 01:30 PM Pacific Time
New York was out of character last week in beating Tampa Bay, as the Giants committed no turnovers and were plus 3 in turnover margin. New York was -9 in turnover margin for the season heading into that game (while Tampa Bay was +13 in TO margin), so don?t expect the Giants to be turnover free again this week. Eli Manning looked in control of the offense, but he?s played error free football before and then looked horrible the very next week. The inconsistent Manning has rarely played error free in consecutive games and he?s actually been horrible in games following a game in which he did not throw an interception. In the last two seasons Manning has averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play with 14 interceptions in 9 games after not throwing a pick in the previous game, including 4.3 yppp and 8 picks in 4 such games this season. Manning may appear to be a better quarterback the last two weeks than he?s been all season but there is certainly no indication that he will continue to play well ? in fact it?s just the opposite. Manning averaged a sub-par 5.7 yppp this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don?t expect him to have much success against a Dallas defense that is 1.0 yppp better than average from week 4 on when star LB Greg Ellis joined the lineup after missing the first 3 games (for a second straight season the Cowboys were poor defensively without Ellis and good defensively with him). New York?s offensive strength in a rushing attack that averaged 4.7 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.1 ypr to an average team), but the ground game will be slowed a bit by a solid Cowboys? run defense that gave up 4.1 ypr to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average team. Overall, the Cowboys have a significant advantage with their defense over the Giants? offense and New York averaged just 4.5 yards per play at home against the Cowboys in week 10 (the good offensive production by the Giants at Dallas in week 1 was against a Cowboys? defense without Ellis).
The Giants defense is also better than their season numbers, as the 8.8 yards per play that they allowed the Cowboys in week 1 was a game in which Michael Strahan and CB Sam Madison did not start. Madison was put into the starting lineup the following week and the Giants? defense has 0.6 yppl better than average in 16 games since then. Dallas was 0.9 yppl better than average for the season offensively (6.1 yppl against temas that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Cowboys averaged 6.0 yppl in a 31-20 win at New York in week 10. Star WR Terrell Owens has practiced this week and is expected to play and those that remember Owens? great play in the Super Bowl for the Eagles a few years ago with a broken leg have no doubt that Owens will perform well with his sprained ankle. The Cowboys are 0.9 yppl better than average offensively, so they have an advantage over the Giants? defense in this game. The key to the Giants? defense is a pass rush that averages 3.2 sacks per game but the elusive Tony Romo was sacked a total of just 3 times in 2 games against New York this season, which may be why he has played so well against them (if you can avoid the pressure than throwing against a sub-par Giants? secondary is not that tough to do). My math model projects 5.7 yppl for Dallas in this game, which should be more than enough to pull away from a Giants team that is expected to struggle offensively.
Overall my math model favors Dallas by 8 points in this game, so there really isn?t any line value. However, Dallas applies to a 21-3 ATS playoff situation while New York applies to a negative 6-35-1 ATS playoff situation. Dallas also applies to a very strong 46-8-1 ATS situation that is 20-0 ATS recently. I?ll take Dallas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 ? or -10 points. I?ll also lean with the Under in this game.
San Diego (+9) 17 INDIANAPOLIS 24
13-Jan-08 10:00 AM Pacific Time
The Chargers? defense has given Peyton Manning fits in recent years, including a horrible 6 interception performance in San Diego earlier this season. The Chargers were also the first team to beat the Colts in 2005 after Indy started the season 13-0. There are theories that Manning has trouble with good 3-4 defensive schemes and his recent problems with Pittsburgh and San Diego certainly give some credence to that hypothesis. That week 10 meeting between these teams happen to be the first game in which All-Pro CB Antonio Cromartie was in the starting lineup and the Chargers? defense has been great ever since. San Diego has allowed just 4.4 yards per play in 9 games with Cromartie in the starting lineup (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team) and that unit stacks up evenly against a Colts? attack that is 0.7 yppl better than average with Peyton Manning at quarterback. Manning gets favorite target Marvin Harrison back in the lineup this week after missing all but the first 3 games this season. Manning?s numbers in those 3 games with Harrison were outstanding (8.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) but it?s tough to say whether Harrison will be as effective as usual so I?ll only make a slight adjustment for his return (i.e. I?ll use Manning?s full season stats, which includes those first 3 games, instead of using just his stats from the games without Harrison as I?ve been doing most of the season).
While the Chargers? defense looks up to the task of containing the Colts? offense I am not so sure that their offense will be able to do their share with star TE Antonio Gates questionable to play. Gates dislocated his toe in the Chargers? win over Tennessee last week and he hasn?t practiced at all this week and will be a game time decision. If Gates plays he probably won?t be playing at full speed and Philip Rivers would surely struggle against the Colts? great pass defense. Rivers has been 0.4 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he averages 8.4 yards per pass when he throws a pass to Gates, compared to 6.3 yards per pass attempt to any other receiver. Rivers goes from 0.4 yppp better than average with Gates to 0.1 yppp worse than average without him and I?ll assume he?s out for this game (or at least not as effective as usual). The Colts? defense was a very good 1.1 yppp better than averaged defending the pass this season (5.1 yppp allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average defense ? excluding their week 17 game when their starters didn?t play much), so Rivers would likely have trouble throwing the ball even if Gates was 100%. San Diego does have LaDainian Tomlinson to run the ball, but San Diego?s rushing attack has actually been no better than average this season, averaging 4.3 ypr against teams that would combine to allow 4.3 ypr to an average team. The Colts are only 0.2 ypr better than average defensively, so Tomlinson could be a factor. Overall, the Chargers offense is average without Gates and the Colts are much better than average defensively, so it will be tough for San Diego to move the ball consistently. San Diego only averaged 3.8 ypr, 3.3 yppp and 3.5 yppl in their week 10 win over the Colts, as that win was the function of two return touchdowns and a +3 in turnover margin. In fact, to win that game by only 2 points despite having 2 return TD?s and 6 interceptions is an indication of how much better the Colts may be.
Overall, my math model favors Indy by just 8 points while assuming that Gates won?t play (and he may), so I?ll lean slightly with San Diego plus 7 ? points or more and I will also lean with the Under in this game as both defenses are very good.