SERVICE PLAYS FOR THUR 1/3

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GIANTS007

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James Manos

FedEx Orange Bowl, Jan. 3 at 5 p.m. (FOX)

Virginia Tech vs. Kansas, VaTech -3.5

It was a nice season for the Jayhawks but that ends here. This will be, by far, the fastest, most aggressive, and most athletic defense Kansas has seen this year. The Hokies rank second in overall pass "D", allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, and were third in the country with 43 sacks. There are concerns about a pedestrian Hokies offense versus solid Kansas defense, but with extra time to prepare we prefer head coach Frank Beamer to Mark Mangino. The Hokies' speed, special teams, and familiarity with the environment will be too much for the Jayhawks.
 
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Orange Bowl
By: Totals 4 U

Kansas (11-1, 7-1 Big 12, #8 BCS) gave the BCS Committee, who clearly wasn?t excited about them getting into their 2008 Championship Game, an early Christmas present when they came up short in the Big Championship with a 28-36 loss to Missouri and this is Coach Manginio?s (36-36 in 6th year in Lawrence) squad?s opportunity to prove the pollsters wrong. The Jayhawks? explosive offense is one of the best in the nation, but it?s the defense of Coordinator Bill Young that makes the Crimson and Blue a complete contender. Just 192 points were allowed all season (16.0 points per game) by a crew that didn?t miss a single start due to injury all season while holding opponents to 91.4 rush yards (at 3.1 yards per carry and just 7 rush TD) and 226.8 pass yards (at 5.5 yards per attempt). The Job of the foursome up front hasn?t simply been to rush the pocket blindly (only 21 sacks) but to control the line of scrimmage with gap discipline and get their hands up at the quarterback?s release. Linemen 6?4? 240 junior LDE Russell Brorsen (32 T, 3 TFL, INT), 6?1? 285 senior RDT James McClinton (38 T, 11 TFL, 2 ? S, INT), and 6?3? 250 junior RDE John Larsen (39 T, 11 TFL, 1 ? S, 2 INT) each have recorded picks this season due to this approach and a ton of tipped balls have been the source of Kansas?s 20 team interceptions in 2007. Former Ohio State linebacker, Steve Tovar, coaches a superb crew in the middle with 6?3? 22 junior James Holt (91 T, 12 TFL, S), 6?1? 235 junior Joe Mortensen (98 T, 14 TFL, 2 S), and 6?5? 255 Mike Rivera (84 T, 9 ? TFL, 2 S, INT) making the big hits created by the gap control up front. Jahawk corners 6?2? 205 junior Aquib Talib (61 T, 3 ? TFL, 4 INT) and 6?0? 180 freshman Chris Harris (61 T, ? TFL, INT) are both big in stature while 6?1? 205 sophomore FS Darrell Stuckey (66 T, 2 TFL, 2 INT) has a good nose for the ball.

Kansas?s offense piled up the points in bunches (44.3 per game) with 5?11? 200 sophomore QB Todd Reesing (256 of 409 for 3259 yards, 32 TD, 6 INT) at the trigger who found 8 different receivers in the end zone in 2007. The size 6?4? senior WR Marcus Henry (52 for 994 and 9 TD), 6?3? senior TE Derek Fine (44 for 380 and 4 TD), 6?0? junior WR Dexton Fields (56 for 733 and 6 TD), and 6?3? freshman WR Dezmon Briscoe (41 for 476 and 7 TD) has helped the diminutive Reesing to find his mark while experience (1 senior and 4 juniors) and continuity (59 of 60 possible starts) by the Jayhawk offensive line (6?4 ?? and 301 pounds per man) have given him time to pick up 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 294.5 yards through the air per contest. Coach Manginio?s rushing game ? like himself - doesn?t waste much time juking and jiving. The Thunder and Lightning tandem of 6?0? 235 senior Brandon McAnderson (175 for 1050 and 16 TD) and 5?10? 190 sophomore Jake Sharp (138 for 788 and 7 TD) have surrendered total losses of just 28 yards in 313 carries while pacing a unit the has racked up196.6 yards on the ground per game to go with 29 rushing touchdowns. Keep your eye out for sophomore backup quarterback Kerry Meier, who has caught 20 passes and rushes 15 times this season, and the return tandem of Marcus Herford (30.0 per kick return and 2 TD) and Raim Pendleton (12.1 per punt return and TD).

Virginia Tech (11-2, 8-1 ACC, #3 BCS) may have stumbled out of the gate with an unimpressive 17-7 home win over East Carolina and a crushing 7-48 loss at LSU but no team in the nation was excited about facing them the last 5 weeks when the ran off wins against Georgia Tech, Florida Sate, Miami, Virginia, and Boston College by an average of 19.8 points per contest. The Hokie offense is a balanced attack led by thrower 6?4? 225 junior QB Sean Glennon (130 of 207 for 1636 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT) and rusher 6?1? 220 freshman QB Tyrod Taylor (71 of 131 for 916 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT passing and 97 for 431 yards and 6 TD rushing). Glennon has made the last 6 starts but you will be sure to see plenty of both in Miami. For a crew that traditionally hasn?t done much downfield, Coach Frank Beamer (156-82-2 in 21st year in Blacksburg) has some decent talent at wideout this year with 6?1? 220 senior Josh Morgan (43 for 522 and 5 TD), 6?4? 214 senior Justin Harper (37 for 571 and 4 TD), 5?10? 180 senior Eddie Royal (32 for 485 and 4 TD), and 5?11? 190 senior Josh Hyman (25 for 339 and TD) giving defenses plenty to thing about besides stacking the box against the Tech rush. The Hokie offensive line is huge at 6?4 ?? and better than 320 pounds per man but have struggled all season both in pass protection (49 sacks allowed in 13 games) and run blocking (3.4 yards per rush). Frankly, the running back pair of 5?11? 205 junior Brandon Ore (244 for 876 and 8 TD) and 5?9? 205 sophomore Kenny Lewis Jr. (53 for 183 and 4 TD) are good enough to pile up big numbers but just have found little daylight, especially along the right side of 6?4? 310 sophomore RG Sergio Render and 6?5? 312 sophomore RT Ed Wang. By the numbers the Hokies have racked up 29.3 points of offense per game on 133.5 yards rushing and 198.8 yards passing per contest.

As sub-par as Virginia Tech has been at rushing the ball, Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster?s boys have been even better at stopping it. 6?5? 267 senior LDE Chris Ellis (49 T, 9 TFL, 8 ? S, INT), 6?2? 293 senior LDT Carlton Powell (36 T, 6 TFL, 2 ? S), 6?4? 290 senior RDT Barry Booker (43 T, 10 ? TFL, 4 S), and 6?2? 256 junior RDE Orion Martin (51 T, 8 ? TFL, 4 ? S) are brutal to run against up the middle, allowing just 86.0 yards per game on the ground at 2.8 yards per carry in 2007. Behind the front wall, senior backers 6?0? 238 Vince Hall (92 T, 6 ? TFL, 3 ? S, INT) and 6?2? 236 Xavier Adibi (108 T, 12 TFL, 3 S, 2 INT) are blazers to the ball, often capping off plays broken by the boys up front with highlight reel hits. As strong as the Virginia Tech font 7 has been, the defensive backfield, coached by ?96 alum Torrian Gray, has been its equal with 207.3 pass yards allowed per game. Junior cornerbacks 5?10? 200 Brandon Flowers (79 T, 7 TFL) and 6?0? 203 Victor ?Macho? Harris (34 T) have each snagged 5 interceptions this season while Harris is credited with an astounding 11 pass breakups. You?ll see both these kids playing on Sundays. 43 sacks and 21 interceptions are big parts of why the Hokies have allowed just 15.5 points per game this campaign and since you asked?yes, the legendary Frank Beamer special teams units blocked 4 more kicks this year.

Free winner from Totals 4 U: Although the Jayhawks and the Hokies are left on the outside looking in at the National Championship, this may be the best match up of the season. The crews of Mark Mangino and Frank Beamer each play with all kinds of heart and intensity, plus when would you ever get to see these clubs face off outside of bowl play? We don't expect this one to be easy by any stretch, but we'll give the nod to the arm of Todd Reesing and against the offensive line of Tech. Take Kansas + 3 1/2 and enjoy the game!
 

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VEGAS SPORTS PICKS

NCAAB

West Virginia Mountaineers + 2.5 over (at) Notre Dame


Notre Dame (10-2) vs. West Virginia (10-2) under new coach Huggins leads the nation with a plus 26.0 scoring margin. The Mountaineers are 3-0 in road games including an 88-59 win at (now 8-2) Auburn on 12/05. They lost at N.D. 61-58 last season.



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Villanova Wildcats - 3 over (at) DePaul Blue Demons


No.16 Villanova (10-1) vs. DePaul (4-7) ranks 11th in the Big East in scoring, 15th in scoring defense, and 16th (last) in both scoring margin and rebounding margin. Wildcats won last meeting at DePaul 61-51 in Feb.'06.
 
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GIANTS007

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BURNS

BLUE CHIP---UNDER VT / KANSAS
PERSONAL FAV.---WILD
TNT GOM------BULLS
ROAST---------NUGGETS
ESPN GOW----ILLINOIS
1st CONF. GOW---CAL
 
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GIANTS007

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Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan

Game: Kansas at Virginia Tech Jan 3 2008 8:00PM
Prediction: Kansas
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Kansas Jayhawks ? AiS shows an 83% probability that Kansas will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Kansas will out gain V-Tech by 50 or more total yards. This puts Kansas into a perfect role knowing they are 6-0 ATS when they are outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 93-52 ATS since 1996. Play against neutral field favorites with a winning record on the season and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This line opened at pick and has moved to V-Tech being installed as a 3 point favorite. The betting public has been wrong 71.6% of the time when loving the line in V-Tech games over the past 3 seasons sporting a 10-24 ATS mark. The break also helps Kansas as they have a very strong record when rested. Note that they are 15-5 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. V-tech HC Beamers is not in a good role for this game. He is just 8-17 ATS off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals as the coach of V-Tech.
 

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******* Edge

OVERVIEW: Both Kansas and Virginia Tech enjoyed storied seasons in 2007. The Hokies, 11-2 SU & 7-5 ATS, won the ACC title while dedicating their effort to the memory of those lost in the horrific campus shootings in spring, while the Jayhawks produced their best record, 11-1, since 1899. HC Mark Mangino?s team boasted the best ATS record in the country as well, at 10-1, while outscoring opponents by a stellar 44.3-16.0 margin. Unfortunately, the only setback, to Missouri, came in the season finale, and cost them a shot at both the Big 12 & potential national titles. HC Frank Beamer?s team struggled early in the season, but came on like gangbusters, winning their L5 games, both SU & ATS. All but one of those came against bowl teams as well. This is KU?s first BCS-game ever, while Tech is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its prior three BCS appearances.
******* Forecaster: KANSAS 29, VIRGINIA TECH 23

******* Doug says: In an ironic twist, it was Missouri who knocked Kansas out of the BCS and who let them back in when they lost to Oklahoma again. Except for a bad first half of football against the Tigers, the Jayhawks were as coldly efficient as any team in the land, scoring 44.3 PPG and allowing a mere 16 an outing. The defense didn?t receive enough credit even against the 109th schedule. Virginia Tech presents a different challenge for Kansas. Trying to study film on the Hokies offense only involves the last four games as they completely changed personalities in figuring out how to utilize quarterbacks within the same series and be effective. Defensively Virginia Tech got better as the season wore on, to finish fourth overall at 293.3 YPG allowed. Linebackers Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi are as impressive as any two in the country on the same team. Let?s not forget, the Hokies are botched onside kick and fantastic play by Matt Ryan from being in BCS title game. Va. Tech is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better and Kansas offense goes from 44 to 27 PPG on the road.
PREDICTION: Virginia Tech by 7
 

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10 Dime
Virginia Tech

5 Dime
Marquette
Arizona State
Southern California
 
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Orange Bowl: Kansas vs. Virginia Tech (-3, 51) Thursday, Jan. 3, 8:00 pm ET

*************ATS trends*************

--Kansas Jayhawks--

Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Jayhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

--Virginia Tech Hokies--

Hokies are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Hokies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Thursday games.
Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Over/under trends

Kansas

Under is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Jayhawks last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Virginia Tech

Under is 6-0 in Hokies last 6 Thursday games.
Under is 6-1 in Hokies last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 4-1 in Hokies last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
 

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****MY PLAYS FOR THUR. JAN 3RD****

---CFB----------------
(3*)- KANSAS

---CBB----------------
(9*)- WRIGHT STATE
(8*)- NORTH TEXAS
(7*)- BYU

---NBA----------------
(6*)- TRAILBLAZERS

---NHL----------------
(6*)- ISLANDERS

1-10* (26-16-1 RECORD)
 
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