Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
***Oregon State (+17 ?) over ARIZONA
05:30 PM Pacific - Rotation 529
Arizona will have a tough time getting up for this game after their showdown with Memphis last Saturday, as big favorites coming off a game against another good team have a tendency not to cover the big number. Arizona, in fact, applies to a 0-24 ATS subset of a 26-73-1 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that is based on their loss to Memphis. Arizona was without their leading scorer and leading assist man Jerryd Bayless (18.5 ppg, 4.2 apg) in that loss and he?s listed as doubtful for tonight, as I?m sure coach Kevin O?Neill would rather have him healthy for the Oregon game on Saturday than for the lowly Beavers. Oregon State has not played very well so far this season but the Beavers are now a better team with the addition of Kansas transfer center C.J. Giles and freshman F Omari Johnson, who both recently joined the rotation. Giles and Johnson are both shooting 50% from the floor and Giles is a beast on the boards and defensively, accumulating 34 rebounds and 10 blocks in just 80 minutes, which would be 13.6 rebounds and 4.0 blocks playing 32 minutes (he just played over 30 minutes for the first time in the Beavers previous game and is now fully in the rotation). With Bayless out for Arizona and Giles and Johnson now contributing for OSU I would make the line on this game Arizona by 17 ? points. With the strong situation and a fair line, the Beavers are a solid play and I?ll take Oregon State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more and for 2-Stars at +16 ? or +16 points.
3 Star Selection
***UTAH STATE (-11) over Hawaii
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 542
Utah State is starting to play up to the level that was expected of them this year, winning 7 of their last 8 games while going 4-1 ATS after playing horribly early in the season. Hawaii is just plain horrible this year and hasn?t been getting any better. My ratings favor Utah State by 12 ? points using all of their games from this season, but they appear to be a better team than their season rating suggests and the Aggies apply to a very good 104-38-2 ATS situation. Utah State also has the advantage of playing at high altitude against a team from sea level that had an 8 hour flight to get here. I?ll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars at -11 1/2 or -12 points.
Thursday Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Siena (+21 ?) over MEMPHIS
06:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 575
Memphis coach John Calipari hasn?t made a habit out of beating up on bad teams, unless his team is motivated by a loss in their last game. Memphis is 93-74-7 ATS in all games since the start of the 2002-03 season, but the Tigers are just 8-22-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 17 points if they are not coming off a loss, including 0-5 ATS this season. Siena is 38-23-1 ATS in all games under coach Fran McCaffery, including 21-8 ATS on the road, 20-8 ATS as an underdog (17-6 ATS as a road dog) and a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog of 11 points or more. Siena has already upset Stanford this season, so they will not be intimidated by Memphis. Unfortunately, the Saints will be without 3rd leading scorer and top rebounder Alex Franklin, who I value at just over 2 points. I?d favor Memphis by 20 points using all games for Siena and using the 7 games for Memphis in which all 5 starters played (Dozier and Dorsey each missed two games). Adding the 2 points for Franklin?s absence results in a fair line of Memphis by 22 points, which is about what the line is. However, aside from the team trends, Siena also applies to a 164-82-2 ATS big road underdog situation, so the technical analysis clearly favors Siena in this game and I?d take the Saints at a fair line of +22 points. I?ll consider Siena an opinion at +21 or +21 ? points, but I?d take Siena in a 2-Star Best Bet at +22 points or more.