BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
VIRGINIA
Game: North Carolina vs. Virginia Game Time: 2/12/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Virginia Reason: I'm taking the points with VIRGINIA. The Cavaliers have been struggling, having lost six straight games and sitting in last place in the conference. They haven't lost seven in a row since 2002-03 though and they haven'e started off 1-9 in ACC play since 1976-77. Playing on ESPN with the support of the home crowd behind them, I expect a highly motivated performance from the Cavs this evening, as they attempt to avoid both those dubious distinctions. Recent losses notwithstanding, note that the Cavs remain a healthy 34-18 SU the past decade after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. Virginia has enjoyed success at home in this series. In fact, they've gone 6-1 the last seven times they hosted the Tar Heels. They catch the Tar Heels in a tough spot as they come off a hard-fought come-from-behind victory vs. Clemson on Sunday. Not only did that game go to overtime but it cost them Marcus Ginyard, who sprained an ankle. That wouldn't normally be much of an issue. However, backup Bobby Frasor is already out for the season after suffering a knee injury in December. Worse, starter Ty Lawson, who leads the team with 5.7 assists (13.7 points) and runs the offense, is likely still out and senior Quentin Thomas played a career-high 46 minutes against the Tigers. That's a lot to deal with off an emotional OT win with a short turn-around between games. All things considered, I feel we're getting excellent value with the home underdog Cavaliers and I look for them to improve to 4-0 ATS the last four times they were listed as home underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range.
*Main Event
Virginia
NBA BASKETBALL
ATLANTA
Game: Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 2/12/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. The Hawks have struggled on the road and come off a blowout loss at Houston. However, they've been highly competitive at home. In fact, if we look at their last nine games here we find that they've won six of them, including victories over the likes of the Lakers, Cavs, Nuggets and Bulls. Additionally, all three of the losses came by five points or less. The Hawks, 4-2 SU/ATS the last six times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range, have fared well against top tier defensive teams over the last couple of years, going 10-6 ATS the last 16 times that they faced a team which allows 91 points or less per game. That includes a 6-1 ATS mark the last seven times that they faced a team allowing 91 points or less during the second half of the season. Although they covered in their last game, the Pistons are still just 6-11 ATS their last 17 games. The Pistons, who have a divisional game vs. the Pacers on deck tomorrow, are also 0-3 ATS the last three times that they played the front end of back to back games. Playing with "triple-revenge" from a trio of earlier losses, look for the Hawks to continue their inspired play on this court, improving to 7-3 ATS the last 10 games in this series.
*Eastern Conf. GOW
Atlanta
